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SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/11/21)

Posted on August 9, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,154.90

Wednesday’s card is the 20th of 40 at Saratoga, and like every year, the meet seems to go by incredibly fast. At the same time, it’s both a whirlwind and an endurance test, which is something any handicapper looking at every race, every day can attest to.

One thing I’ll emphasize is the importance of trip handicapping. If you’re watching along, chances are you’re starting to see horses run for the second time this meet. Watch replays on your ADW of choice, take detailed notes, and act accordingly if they return in appropriate spots.

This may only make a true difference for a few horses, but that attention to detail can lead to big scores if you play your cards right. Don’t be afraid to put in the extra work. Your ADW balance will thank you.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Fabulous Fanny ran third and Mainstay ran fourth. Both ran better than it may look on paper, but I still dropped $24.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to focus on the early Pick Five, as I’ve got a pretty budget-friendly ticket (which isn’t always the case and why I tend to focus more on Pick Four sequences). My 50-cent ticket starting in the opener reads like this: 5,7 with 1,2,7 with 2 with 1,4,7 with 1,2,3. Also, remember that trip handicapping note? #1 MISS DELICIOUS never had a chance with the trip she got last time out and may be a bit of a price in the seventh. I’ll have a $5 win ticket on her.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mr. Buff, Race 3
Longshot: Fauci, Race 9

Wild Appeal (MTO)
Castle Leoch
Admiral Halsey

#5 CASTLE LEOCH: Ran well when second in his debut back in May at Gulfstream. He’s been outworking his stablemate that also shows up here, and I’m expecting improvement in his second career start; #7 ADMIRAL HALSEY: Has a world-class pedigree and sold for $230,000 last year at Keeneland. His dam was a Group 3 winner overseas, his second dam was a Group 1 winner, and he shares some of his female family with multiple Group 1 hero and sire Churchill, whose dam is a half-sister to his dam; #2 JAVA BUZZ: Debuts for Linda Rice and sold for $210,000 despite sire Mshawish commanding a modest $7,500 stud fee. He’s bred to want the turf, but I think he may be at his best going two turns, not one.

Extra Effort
Bustin Bay
Addilyn

#1 EXTRA EFFORT: Gets a huge trainer switch in his first start off the claim for Rob Atras, whose barn is hitting at nearly 30% here this summer. In addition, this field sure seems weaker than the ones she’s been tackling, and she has the speed to make the rail draw an asset; #7 BUSTIN BAY: Cruised home at this distance downstate against a weaker group in her first start off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. Both of her career victories have come going seven furlongs, and she’s certainly shown an ability to rate and pass others late; #2 ADDILYN: Found optional claiming foes a bit too tough last month at Gulfstream. Not only does she drop back down to an appropriate level, she goes back to a distance she’s had success at in the past, with four in-the-money finishes in as many seven-furlong efforts.

Mr. Buff
Danny California
Winston’s Chance

#2 MR. BUFF: Has danced a lot of dances over his career and looms large in the Evan Shipman. He’s proven his class and early speed time and time again, and if he’s able to get comfortable going into the first turn, I think he’ll be very tough to run down; #1 DANNY CALIFORNIA: Won at this route just a few days ago and gets wheeled right back by Rudy Rodriguez. It’s easy to see why given his 4-for-5 lifetime record at Saratoga, but that wasn’t an easy race over the weekend and it’s fair to wonder if he’s got enough gas in the tank; #5 WINSTON’S CHANCE: Didn’t do much running earlier in the meet but comes back to state-bred competition and may benefit from the likely race shape. He looks like the lone true closer, and that could help him clunk up for a piece of it.

Gotta Go Mo
Richies Great Girl
Tiple

#4 GOTTA GO MO: Has chased multiple stakes-winning turf distaffer Caravel twice in a row and should appreciate the class relief here. She’s got plenty of early zip and could scoot clear early, which would make her the one to catch turning for home; #1 RICHIES GREAT GIRL: Ships in for Larry Rivelli, who must always be respected when he sends a horse east during the summer. This filly’s won four in a row and seven of 12 overall, so it wouldn’t be surprising if her best race was enough to get the money here; #7 TIPLE: Hasn’t run in nearly 11 months but returns to race at a route that’s been very kind to her. She’s 2-for-2 in turf sprints at Saratoga, she got pretty good last summer before going to the sidelines, and she could have a chance at a price if she’s ready to run.

Kaden
Tivoli Twirl
Anejo

#3 KADEN: Gets a reluctant nod in a race without much dirt route form apparent in the program. It’s not easy to debut going two turns, but he sold for $120,000 despite a modest pedigree, has been working well, and has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of the pedigree; #1 TIVOLI TWIRL: Tries two turns for the first time and has enough pedigree to suggest he’ll take to such a route. His dam has thrown a pair of stakes-winning routers, and plenty of offspring of sire Twirling Candy have done well going long; #2 ANEJO: Has shown very little in two turf starts, but he adds both Lasix and blinkers and sports a very flashy four-furlong drill on dirt. It’s possible he’s just wanted dirt all along, and at his likely price, I need to include him.

Starship Dreams
Ms Penelopepitstop
Shining Colors

#4 STARSHIP DREAMS: Had an adventurous journey in her unveiling last month at Finger Lakes, when she broke last, made a middle move, and tired to finish third. She adds Lasix and blinkers here, and recent drills indicate she’s sitting on a move forward; #3 MS PENELOPEPITSTOP: Dueled early in her debut at Monmouth, but tired to finish fourth. She’s logical, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s favored, but I’m just not sure what she ran against last time, and at her likely price, I’ll try to beat her; #2 SHINING COLORS: Has run second three consecutive times at this level, including once earlier in the meet. Her lone drill since that effort was a bullet drill downstate, and her experience may prove to be a plus.

Misty Veil (MTO)
Miss Delicious
Town Avenger

#1 MISS DELICIOUS: Got caught wide in her most recent start and never had a chance because of it. However, she draws far more favorably in this spot. Inside speed can be very tough on the inner turf, and I’m expecting significant improvement at a square price; #11 TOWN AVENGER: Draws terribly but ran well when fourth against stakes foes at Churchill back in June. There was no early pace that day, but she still rallied to run fourth, and it’s clear she’s got plenty of ability; #7 ELLE EST FORTE: Came home exceptionally fast to break her maiden at Churchill, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. This isn’t an easy place to make one’s first start against winners, but Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride and she should be moving the right way late.

Betsy Blue
Diva Banker
Honey Money

#2 BETSY BLUE: Hasn’t finished worse than second in six lifetime outings and merits respect in a wide-open event. She beat several of these rivals when second earlier in the meet, and her usual race would put her right there once again; #3 DIVA BANKER: Steps up in class after two consecutive wins. Most recently, she rallied to top first-level allowance foes downstate, and that wasn’t a dimension she had shown to that point in her career; #6 HONEY MONEY: Has won four of five, including a race here just a few weeks ago. In fact, this will already be her third start of the meet, and her lone recent misfire came over a muddy track she clearly did not care for.

Fire Sword (MTO)
Arrest Me Red
Fauci

#8 ARREST ME RED: Is 2-for-2 in turf sprints and makes his first start for trainer Wesley Ward. He’s been working up a storm recently and could sit an ideal stalking trip from his outside post, one that would give him first run turning for home in the Mahony; #2 FAUCI: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in a stakes race at Monmouth. If you toss that race, he’s never run a bad one going short on turf, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #4 JAXON TRAVELER: Chased Golden Pal last time out in the Grade 3 Quick Call, and this is a softer spot solely because that world-class turf sprinter isn’t in the field. However, after recent repelled bids on turf and synthetic, I think it’s fair to wonder if he’s simply better on dirt.

R10

Clever Fellow
Viking Zim
Ghostmon

#4 CLEVER FELLOW: Drops in for a tag for the first time and is probably in a “now or never” situation. He’s flopped as the favorite in four straight outings against maiden special weight foes, but he does have some early speed and should be forwardly placed in the Wednesday finale; #10 VIKING ZIM: Was a fast-closing fourth in the same race my top pick exits and is another trying maiden claimers for the first time. If there were more pace, he’d probably be my top pick, but given the likely race shape and the outside post, I can only pick him second; #8 GHOSTMON: Just missed against similar last time out at Belmont and stretches back out to two turns. He ran second at a similar route at Aqueduct back in April, and he has enough tactical speed to work out a trip beneath Ricardo Santana, Jr.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/8/21)

Posted on August 6, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,178.90

The next few days will feature the return of sales to Saratoga Springs, and with that has come the return of some of my favorite people in racing. After last summer featured no fans in the stands, it’s fun to be able to use this space for shout-outs like this again, so I’m going to enjoy it.

Joe, get cups of Big Red Spring water for everyone. Natalie, make sure Joe drinks all of them or gets them thrown in his face. Nicole, stop levitating as a result of being back in Saratoga. Penelope, take pictures of the responses to this (especially Joe’s).

Most importantly, though, I hope you’re all enjoying being back in town. Don’t work too hard!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Bolshoi Ballet was up far closer to the pace than I thought he’d be in the Saratoga Derby Invitational. When he got swallowed up at the top of the stretch, my Pick Five and doubles tickets turned into confetti. I dropped $34.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on a pair of competitive 2-year-old races. #7 FABULOUS FANNY is working like a runner ahead of her debut in the sixth, and #8 MAINSTAY impressed me in the Grade 3 Schuylerville and should run a better race in the eighth (the Grade 2 Adirondack). I’ll have $10 win tickets on each runner, and I’ll play a $2 Pick Three starting in the sixth that singles both of those horses and uses #3 VIADERA and #7 REGAL GLORY in the seventh (the De La Rose).

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mainstay, Race 8
Longshot: Dream Lith, Race 6

Spun d’Etat
Shaker Shack
Chloe Rose

#5 SPUN D’ETAT: Takes a big drop into straight claiming races after spending most of her career going against optional claiming foes. There seems to be plenty of early speed signed on, and that could set things up for this one to come pick up the pieces late; #2 SHAKER SHACK: Hasn’t run a bad race in five starts this season and even won a $200,000 stakes race for New York-bred runners two starts ago. She’s a nice horse, but her accomplishments beg the question, why are her connections willing to lose her for $32,000?; #4 CHLOE ROSE: Thumped a weaker group earlier in the meet and was claimed by one of the hottest barns on the grounds following that race. These waters are deeper, but she doesn’t have to improve much on speed figures to have a big shot here.

Brown entry
Penny Saver
Love to Run

BROWN ENTRY: I prefer #1A MCKULICK, who’s by the great Frankel and has a terrific bottom-side pedigree as well. She’s a half-sister to stakes winner Just Beautiful, and her dam is kin to a runner that won a Group 2 in Italy; #2 PENNY SAVER: Wasn’t disgraced in her debut, when she ran second behind next-out Schuylerville winner Pretty Birdie. Her dam was Grade 2-placed on turf, so there’s plenty of pedigree saying she’ll like the grass, and her recent workouts look very sharp; #3 LOVE TO RUN: Sold for $640,000 at auction earlier this year and is bred to be a very nice turf horse. Her dam threw stakes-placed turfer Thanks Mr. Eidson, and this is another first-time starter with some fast works on the tab.

Caumsett
No Payne
Kreesa La Wrote

#1 CAUMSETT: Gets a tepid nod in a turf sprint that hits me as pretty wide-open. She’s shown plenty of early zip, though, and this race seems fairly light on that elsewhere. I think she can make the lead from the rail and potentially get comfortable in a hurry; #6 NO PAYNE: Improved second off the bench when third in a turf sprint at Belmont. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Ray Handal, and further progression would put her right there; #2 KREESA LA WROTE: Ran probably the best race of her career earlier in the meet, when she was second at this route of ground. She’s beaten several rivals that also show up in here, and while David Donk’s won just once at the meet, his charges have finished second five times as of this writing, so his horses are running just fine.

Easy to Bless
Harper’s in Charge
Off We Go

#6 EASY TO BLESS: Was a good second when beaten a neck by a class-dropping Brad Cox trainee last time, and she’s won five of nine career starts. How she’ll respond to a new barn is anyone’s guess, but the outside draw is a big plus and her best race would likely beat these; #3 HARPER’S IN CHARGE: Stopped to a walk in her first start since November, one where Test runner Bella Sofia cruised to a runaway victory. She may have needed that race off of such a long break, and if she’s back to the form she showed in her first-out score at Aqueduct, she’ll be a contender; #1 OFF WE GO: Was regarded highly enough by her connections to be entered in a pair of stakes races in the past. She was fifth of 14 in a race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, and she’s been working well for Tom Amoss since shipping to Saratoga last month.

Distractandattack
Babagram
I’m Blaming You

#8 DISTRACTANDATTACK: Comes back to the turf after a pair of races rained off the grass and onto the main track. He was second in the most recent one a few weeks ago, his early speed makes him a wire-to-wire threat, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #5 BABAGRAM: Showed speed in his debut for a barn whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. I’m expecting a step forward, especially since he showed enough to originally be purchased for $180,000 several years ago; #4 I’M BLAMING YOU: Didn’t show much when seventh at this route earlier this summer, but that was his first race since September and he drops in for a tag for the first time here. He may go favored, and I can see why, but his form and figures don’t tower over this group, and at his likely price, I can’t endorse him on top.

Fabulous Fanny
Popular Vote
Dream Lith

#7 FABULOUS FANNY: Hammered for $400,000 at auction and has been working like a very good horse for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. First-call rider Ricardo Santana, Jr., will have the mount, and if she runs to her works two and three back, she could be a handful; #1 POPULAR VOTE: Raced greenly in her debut, when she checked multiple times and seemed to take a significant amount of dirt in her face. She should be sharper at second asking, and while the rail draw is a concern, she’ll have every chance if she takes a logical step forward; #8 DREAM LITH: Is very well-bred and comes in off a sharp gate drill for an astute trainer. Her second and third dams both won Grade 1 races, and I think she could conceivably wind up with a piece of this at a big price.

Viadera
Regal Glory
Raven’s Cry

#3 VIADERA: Got very good last year when she won three stakes races in a row, including the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar. That run started with a win in the 2020 renewal of the De La Rose, and she’s worked very well ahead of her debut in this year’s event; #7 REGAL GLORY: Won two graded stakes races at the Spa two summers ago and was most recently fourth in the Grade 1 Just A Game. The top two finishers from that event came back to run 1-2 in the Grade 1 Diana, and this one’s best can absolutely win this; #5 RAVEN’S CRY: Seems like the best of the rest and has been very competitive at this level for most of the season. She won a listed stakes race at Sam Houston back in April and cuts back to a mile after running fourth going slightly longer at Indiana Grand.

Mainstay
Ontheonesandtwos
Wicked Halo

#8 MAINSTAY: Ran an exceptional race in the Grade 3 Schuylerville, as she lost significant ground at the start. She still ran second and was more than five lengths clear of that race’s third-place finisher. If she gets a cleaner break in the Grade 2 Adirondack, look out; #2 ONTHEONESANDTWOS: Won her debut and then ran second in the Debutante at Churchill Downs, where she was beaten just a length and earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure. That’s the highest last-out number of any runner in this field, and I like that she’s shown an ability to rate and pass others; #7 WICKED HALO: Set the early pace in the Debutante, and did so while going very, very fast. She went :44 and change for the first half-mile, and while this is a good group, she may not need to go quite so quick early on. If she gets comfortable, perhaps she’s classy enough to get the job done.

Creative Flair
Con Lima
Rocky Sky

#7 CREATIVE FLAIR: Ships across the Atlantic for an outfit that must be respected whenever it shows up stateside. This filly has not run a bad race this season, has shown an ability to get this distance, and seems to have enough tactical speed to make her own trip in the Saratoga Oaks; #5 CON LIMA: Has finished either first or second in all but one of her 12 career starts, and that effort came in a dirt race. She was a close-up second in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last month, and Flavien Prat has been called in to ride for newly-enshrined Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher; #6 ROCKY SKY: Makes her first stateside start after being shipped to the Chad Brown barn by owner Peter Brant. She ran well last time out to take a minor stakes race in Ireland, and we’ve certainly seen this outfit enjoy great success with European invaders in the past.

R10

Water’s Edge (MTO)
Albie
Chrome Dixie

#3 ALBIE: Exits a race that’s come back pretty well. The winner was narrowly beaten earlier this week, while the third-place finisher easily took an off-the-turf race. Danny Gargan’s enjoyed a very strong meet, and he’s got a live one in the Sunday finale; #10 CHROME DIXIE: Stretches out to two turns for the first time but is bred to want some distance. He’s by California Chrome, out of a Dixie Union mare, and comes out of a race where he was a good second going seven furlongs downstate; #5 SARATOGA FLASH: Has taken steps forward in each of his last two starts. He broke his maiden two back, then showed an improved late kick in his first start against winners. His lone two-turn effort to date at Gulfstream wasn’t bad, and regular rider Jose Ortiz should have plenty of options given this colt’s apparent versatility.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/7/21; WHITNEY DAY)

Posted on August 5, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,212.90

It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, yes, but it’s also an annual day of celebration for one group at the Spa Saturday. I’m referring to the Saratoga Stumble, which is helmed by fellow Pink Sheet handicapper and Saratogian sports staff veteran Sam Hollingsworth. People from the greater Mechanicville area wearing matching t-shirts descend on Saratoga Springs and consume mass quantities of alcohol, and it’s apparently a wonderful time. Be safe, everyone!

In addition, if you’d like to see more of me analyzing today’s racing action, I pinch-hit on “The Magic Mike Show” presented by Racing Dudes, and “Champagne and J.D.” will be live online at 9 a.m. Eastern Saturday morning. We’ll be joined by Laura King from the Dubai Racing Channel, who’s in town for a special on-site broadcast. If you miss the live show, we’ll have it up on our YouTube channel shortly after it ends.

As always, August is a busy month, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. Cards like Whitney Day are what make Saratoga special, and they also make doing what I do an incredible experience. I should write a book or something.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Value Engineering ran third, Lazuli was off the board, and I dropped $33.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: The all-stakes Pick Five is a really fun sequence, and that’s where I’ll invest some money. It starts in the sixth (the Lure), ends in the 10th (the Whitney), and my 50-cent ticket looks like this: 2,3,5 with 3,4,5,6 with 1,4,7,8 with 6 with 4. In addition, I’ll also play a $10 cold double starting in the ninth (the Saratoga Derby Invitational) that singles both #6 BOLSHOI BALLET and likely Whitney favorite #4 KNICKS GO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Bolshoi Ballet, Race 9
Longshot: Chestertown, Race 11

K Club (MTO)
Speak Unity
Boston Flagship

#8 SPEAK UNITY: Stretches out to two turns after a pair of sprint races and is bred to love the extra ground. He’s by Belmont winner Union Rags, out of a Dynaformer mare, and makes his first start as a gelding for top-notch horseman Jonathan Thomas; #5 BOSTON FLAGSHIP: Ran well enough to be third in his debut earlier in the meet despite racing very greenly most of the way. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose horses tend to get better with experience; #2 DRIPPING GOLD: Hammered for $300,000 at auction earlier this year and is a full brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Aurelia’s Belle. He’s been working steadily for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and may be good enough to factor in this despite his inexperience.

Grumps Little Tots
Heirloom Kitten
American Tattoo

#8 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Didn’t have much pace to run at last time at Belmont, but still ran on well enough to be fourth that day. It sure seems like there’s more speed in this heat, and the return to a two-turn configuration should hit him right between the eyes; #4 HEIRLOOM KITTEN: Has plenty of early speed and figures to be prominent going into the first turn. He was claimed last time out by an outfit that doesn’t claim many runners, and he ran well at this route twice last summer; #2 AMERICAN TATTOO: Ran well when second in his first dirt route since January last time out at Churchill Downs. He’s got plenty of back class, is another with some early zip, and perhaps he’s found his form again after a few starts for the Norm Casse barn.

Tuggle
Dream Bigger
Stage Left

#2 TUGGLE: Came back running off a very long layoff when second in a similar spot at Belmont. Unlike several others in this field, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip just off what figures to be a hot pace; #5 DREAM BIGGER: Is entered to run for the first time in nearly a year, but he’ll have every chance if he’s ready to run. He’s raced almost exclusively in stakes company, is a three-time stakes winner, and has every right to improve from age three to age four; #4 STAGE LEFT: Has won twice in three local starts, and his best race could certainly win this. His last-out misfire at Churchill is concerning, but he’s been working consistently since then and trainer Wesley Ward always merits respect.

Gold Panda (MTO)
Ruse
Shutters

#5 RUSE: Ran third at this level earlier in the meet despite a wide trip behind a very slow pace. He gets a far friendlier draw here, and I’m hoping his speed can be better utilized here. If he gets comfortable early, he could prove tough to catch; #9 SHUTTERS: Fetched $115,000 at auction back in 2019 despite a pretty modest pedigree and debuts for Chad Brown. This barn alone will attract money, but extended stays at Monmouth usually hit me as red flags, and that’s where he was from May through most of July; #2 SPORTINI: Has been working well ahead of his debut for Michael Stidham, who’s shown he can win with first-time starters. Two-turn events can be tough on unarmed horses, but he’s bred for this sort of route and attracts Luis Saez, which can’t be ignored.

Brigadier General
Vodka Mardini
Big Skipper

#2 BRIGADIER GENERAL: Showed talent in his debut, when he was second in a swiftly-run event at Churchill Downs. The added distance shouldn’t be a problem given his pedigree, and I love the two recent five-furlong drills over the training track, which hint he’s only moved forward since that effort; #6 VODKA MARDINI: Has every right to be a very good horse. This Steve Asmussen trainee is by Bernardini, out of multiple stakes-winning sprinter Hot City Girl, and sports several bullet drills from the gate downstate; #5 BIG SKIPPER: Hammered for $590,000 last September and has a pedigree we won’t see often. He’s by the late Arrogate, out of a Speightstown mare, and has worked well here, but he’s another with an extensive Monmouth work tab that provokes at least a bit of hesitation.

Tacitus (MTO)
Value Proposition
Flavius

#3 VALUE PROPOSITION: Is one of several live horses in here trained by Chad Brown, and he exits a near miss in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple. He was second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner, and a repeat of that effort could get him the lion’s share of the purse in the Lure; #5 FLAVIUS: Always seems to run well and exits a close-up second in the Seek Again at Belmont. He always seems to run well, and his best race could absolutely win this, but he’s also won just once in eight stateside starts, which doesn’t inspire confidence; #2 DELAWARE: Was third in the Forbidden Apple and didn’t get much pace to chase in that event. His best races have come going two turns and he should be going the right way turning for home, but will the early fractions be fast enough to set up for his late kick?

War Like Goddess
Dalika
My Sister Nat

#3 WAR LIKE GODDESS: Comes in off of back-to-back Grade 3 wins going long, and her runaway score in the Bewitch at Keeneland was particularly impressive. She’s still fairly lightly-raced, so she may have room to improve, which is a scary thought for her rivals in the Grade 2 Glens Falls; #6 DALIKA: Almost certainly has to improve, but should get an ideal setup to run a career-best race. There isn’t much other zip in this race, at least on paper, and she should be able to dictate terms from the jump, which could give her a tactical advantage; #5 MY SISTER NAT: Hasn’t won in a while, but that most recent win came in last summer’s Grade 3 Waya at this route of ground. She exits a third-place finish in the Grade 2 New York behind Mean Mary, who would take plenty of money here, and if another runner goes with Dalika early, she’d be a primary beneficiary.

Obligatory
Search Results
Bella Sofia

#4 OBLIGATORY: Cuts back to seven furlongs and could be in prime position to take advantage of a sizzling early pace in the Grade 1 Test. She’ll want to sit far back and make a sweeping move late, and the likely race shape should play right into her hands (hooves?); #7 SEARCH RESULTS: Is 4-for-5 lifetime, with her lone defeat coming when she was beaten a neck by Malathaat in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She capitalized on a perfect trip to take the Grade 1 Acorn, and if the early pace is softer than expected, she could prove tough to run down; #8 BELLA SOFIA: Won two of three starts downstate and gets a big class test here. However, she draws very favorably here and stacks up pretty favorably from a figures standpoint, and it’s tough to poke holes in what she’s done to date.

Bolshoi Ballet
Cadillac
King Fury

#6 BOLSHOI BALLET: Cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, which came a month after he was the 6/5 favorite in one of England’s greatest races, the Group 1 Epsom Derby. I think he’s an exceptionally talented 3-year-old, and if he’s right, he should prove tough to beat; #4 CADILLAC: Came back running in June, when he took a Group 3 at The Curragh going a mile and a quarter against older foes. His one stateside start came in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, when he was a decent fourth, and he’s probably better now than he was then; #11 KING FURY: Makes his first start on turf here but has every right to love the lawn. His dam, Taris, is a half-sister to a stakes-winning turfer, his third dam was a Grade 3 winner on grass, and if he takes to the new surface, he could crash the exotics at a price.

R10

Knicks Go
Swiss Skydiver
Mayfield

#4 KNICKS GO: Bounced back from a disappointing run in the Grade 1 Met Mile with an explosive romp in the Grade 3 Cornhusker, where he earned a career-high 113 Beyer Speed Figure. If he’s right, he’ll likely lead the Grade 1 Whitney from gate to wire, and there’s no reason to think he isn’t; #3 SWISS SKYDIVER: Beat the boys last year in the Grade 1 Preakness, and her connections merit tons of respect for trying them again here. She won the Grade 1 Alabama over this track last summer, and a similar effort could earn her a sizable check here; #5 MAXFIELD: Has only been beaten once in eight career starts and would benefit if my top two selections cook each other early. Having said that, questions linger over the quality of rivals he’s beaten in those seven wins. This is a Grade 1 race in every sense of the word, and he may need a career-best race to get the job done.

R11

Chestertown
Dubb entry
Risk Taking

#8 CHESTERTOWN: Has been gelded since his last start, and that should really help him. The former $2 million baby has shown equal parts talent and stubbornness in the afternoons, and if he moves forward, the winner of last year’s Albany here may have a big chance at a square price; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A MUSICAL HEART, who won the Flat Out two back at Belmont and was fairly well-fancied in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He ran into Lone Rock that day, and these waters are significantly more shallow; #3 RISK TAKING: Drops back into the allowance/optional claiming ranks after tackling the likes of Rombauer in the Grade 1 Preakness back in May. He gets Lasix for the first time in addition to the class drop, and that potent mixture can’t be ignored in this tricky betting race.

R12

Time Limit
Risky Mischief
Bay Storm

#7 TIME LIMIT: Gets a reluctant nod in a puzzling Saturday finale. She ran very well to top state-bred competition earlier in the meet, the Maker barn is winning everything in sight right now, and Luis Saez should be able to use this filly’s early zip to work out a favorable trip; #6 RISKY MISCHIEF: Found a new home on turf last year, and her first victory on the grass came at this route last August. She’s been away since November, but if she’s ready to run, her flexible running style will make her a contender; #10 BAY STORM: Is another coming in off of a layoff, but she does so for a trainer who does very well with returning horses and exits a stellar work over the training track on July 25th. The addition of Lasix could move her forward provided she’s able to negotiate a trip from a pretty wide post.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/6/21)

Posted on August 4, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,245.90

Having a ballot for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame is one of the great honors of my career. It’s something I cherish and respect every day of the year, but never more so than the day of the annual induction ceremony.

Two years’ worth of honorees will be enshrined Friday morning across the street from the track. Among others, the group includes trainers Todd Pletcher and Mark Casse, as well as Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan. It’ll be great to see the sport’s human and equine legends take their rightful places among the best in the history of the game, and I look forward to stopping by the Hall of Fame when I’m in upstate New York later this year.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Both New York’s Finest and Mondeuse were in front turning for home, but they both got caught. I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Today’s card is a great one, and I’ll focus on a few turf races. In the sixth, I’ll put $10 on #5 VALUE ENGINEERING to win and key him in $2 exactas above and below #2 SMILE BRYAN and #7 MO READY, who both hit me as live longshots. I’ll also put $10 to win on #10 LAZULI in the ninth (the Grade 3 Troy), and single that one in a cold $5 double that also includes #1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE in the nightcap.

TOTAL WAGERED: $33.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Answer In, Race 4
Longshot: Lazuli, Race 9

EV Racing entry
Barone Cesco
Emma’s Waltz

#1 NO MI CULPA: Tired in his debut, which came in an off-the-turf race back in May. He gets on what will likely be his preferred surface, adds blinkers for Rudy Rodriguez, and sports a sharp half-mile drill here on July 22nd that hints he’ll be ready to run; #8 BARONE CESCO: Has the bottom-side pedigree to suggest he’s well-meant in this spot. He’s out of a mare who won a stakes race on turf, and that mare has already thrown seven winners. His second dam, meanwhile, is a full sister to multiple stakes winner Annual Date; #3 EMMA’S WALTZ: Was a very cheap auction buy, fetching just $3,500, and that’s curious because he’s out of a mare that won a Grade 2 going long on the lawn. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride for a small outfit, and that seems noteworthy.

Malibu Pro
Dunph
Roaming Union

#8 MALIBU PRO: Was claimed out of his most recent race by Linda Rice, who drops him in for half of the claiming price. It’s an aggressive move from an aggressive barn, so I don’t see it as a red flag, and anything close to his early-2021 form would make him tough to beat; #3 DUNPH: Has run third in four consecutive outings, including his first start for this barn last time out. If nothing else, the two-turn route of ground won’t get him beat, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown; #7 ROAMING UNION: Hasn’t won in a while but attracts Joel Rosario for a barn that can heat up very, very quickly. Trainer Charlton Baker got off the duck Wednesday, and his wins sometimes come in bunches.

Rigney entry (MTO)
Single Soul
Longpants Required

#4 SINGLE SOUL: Came back running when winning her 2021 debut after not having run since a pair of November outings. Offspring of Dubawi usually don’t have issues going very, very long, and I think she’ll take a step forward second off the bench; #2 LONGPANTS REQUIRED: Adds blinkers for an astute barn and has run well going long on turf in the past. Blinkers are often an indication that a horse will show more early zip, and with the lack of pace in this field, that could give her a tactical advantage; #5 COASTANA: Ran well when second last time out in her first start against winners. This barn has found the winner’s circle a few times at this stand, and regular rider Luis Saez will once again be aboard.

Answer In
Wicked Trick
Jalen Journey

#4 ANSWER IN: Is a real handful when he’s right and exits what’s probably his career-best race. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and when Brad Cox gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #5 WICKED TRICK: Drops in class after three tries against graded stakes company downstate. Most notably, he was second in the Grade 3 Westchester going a mile, and while he’s good enough to win, I just think he wants a bit longer; #1 JALEN JOURNEY: Ran well twice against similar downstate and was second at this distance last month. He’s got a nose for the wire, with six wins in 14 career starts, and his record looks far better if you draw a line through his failed expedition to Dubai for the Group 1 Golden Shaheen.

Hot Anna
Violent Vixen
Airborne Gal

#7 HOT ANNA: Passed a few rivals in her debut, which isn’t easy to do, and she made that start for Ken McPeek, whose charges often need a race or two to get going. A step forward seems logical, and I think she presents a strong alternative to an entry I don’t like at all; #3 VIOLENT VIXEN: Has shown some zip in the mornings ahead of her debut, and while Charlton Baker’s horses don’t win much first time out, I don’t think she’ll need to be much to play a role in the outcome. The gate drills hint that she’s got some talent, and I think she’ll outrun her odds; #2 AIRBORNE GAL: Is another first-time starter, and she exits a solid half-mile drill here last week. Her work tab indicates that move wasn’t a fluke, and she may have enough speed to work out a trip from her tricky inside post.

Value Engineering
City Man
Zilla entry

#5 VALUE ENGINEERING: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that sort of effort would give him a chance in this wide-open optional claimer. I’m not crazy about the number of close losses on his record, but he’s probably faced better horses in his past few outings than the ones he’ll line up against here; #11 CITY MAN: Found Grade 1 waters too deep in the Manhattan and comes back to the right level here. His second-place finish in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy was very good, and that sort of effort would put him right there; #2 SMILE BRYAN: Got his nose down earlier in the meet and has a shot if he’s able to draw into this event. His record looks fat better if you toss his dirt races, as he’s a turf horse through and through.

Public Sector
Annex
Wolfie’s Dynaghost

#2 PUBLIC SECTOR: Rated behind a pretty slow pace in the Manila at Belmont and came up just a head short of a loose-on-the-lead winner. The pace should be considerably faster here, and that should allow this one’s class to shine through beneath Flavien Prat, who flies in for just one mount; #1 ANNEX: Is looking to right the ship after three straight defeats by open lengths following three straight wins at Gulfstream that opened his career. If he’s ever going to get back on track, though, it figures to be in a race with this sort of race shape, one that figures to set up for his late kick; #8 WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST: Tries the turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Like several others, he has plenty of early speed, but he showed in his debut that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which could prove important.

Art Collector
Jesus’ Team
Night Ops

#4 ART COLLECTOR: Was one of the top 3-year-olds in training in mid-2020 and has been transferred to the Bill Mott barn in an attempt to recapture that form. If he runs back to his efforts in races like the Grade 2 Blue Grass, he’ll be the one to beat in the Alydar; #7 JESUS’ TEAM: Is capable of big efforts, such as his second-place finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup earlier this season. He almost certainly needed his last-out effort after coming back from Dubai, and I’m expecting a step forward; #8 NIGHT OPS: Hasn’t won since last year’s Grade 3 Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows, but he’s been competitive against horses like Silver State and Mighty Heart. His recent work here was very sharp, and this spot makes plenty of sense, but it’s not like he hasn’t had chances, and that’s a concern.

Lazuli
Imprimis
Bound for Nowhere

#10 LAZULI: Has been running up against some very, very fast horses overseas and comes to the U.S. for Charles Appleby, who means business when he ships across the Atlantic. We’ve seen this before with horses like Althiqa, and his best could absolutely win the Grade 3 Troy; #7 IMPRIMIS: Has run one poor race in the last year and a half, and that stretch includes last year’s Troy, where he crossed the wire first but was disqualified. He’d stand to benefit from a fast pace, which seems likely, and he’s very logical here for a variety of reasons; #11 BOUND FOR NOWHERE: Doesn’t draw a great post and has certainly had his issues, but when he’s right, he’s one of the top turf sprinters on the planet. He cuts back a sixteenth of a mile for this one, and he’ll loom large if Joel Rosario can work out a trip from the far outside.

R10

Bold Victory (MTO)
Digital Software
The Big Grey

#1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Is a very logical, formidable favorite in the Friday finale. He’s yet to run a poor race, including in his 2021 return, when he probably moved a bit early yet still finished a good second. Any move forward from that effort would make him a handful for this bunch; #7 THE BIG GREY: Almost certainly needed his debut effort and drops in class for his second career outing. His two recent half-mile drills were very sharp, and seeing Jose Ortiz aboard this 12-1 shot raises a few eyebrows; #8 THE ANGRY MAN: Goes second off the bench and retains John Velazquez after sputtering badly in an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet. He was second against straight maidens twice over this turf course last summer, and he’s certainly better than he showed in his last start.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/5/21)

Posted on August 3, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,265.90

When I was a kid, my dad and I would go to Lake George every summer. We’d have marathon miniature golf matches across various courses, and we’d bring our own putters from place to place. I still have some of the scorecards in my bedroom at his house.

That’s one of many reasons what happened earlier this week at Goony Golf brought a smile to my face. For those unfamiliar, Andy Serling and Anthony Stabile were participants in a miniature golf match that drew attention from several generous supporters, including Kirk Wycoff and Louis Lazzinarro. By the time they putted out on the 18th hole, more than $100,000 was raised for several charities that do fantastic work within the racing community.

Kudos to all who were involved in this endeavor. Also, should anyone need two ringers for a similar match down the road, my dad and I are available and still carry our putters in the trunks of our cars. In my case, my clubs are next to six bowling balls, because you never know when middle-aged male warfare will break out.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Mach One gave me a thrill in the second race, but the favorite I attempted to beat found a seam at the top of the stretch and rallied to the front. After scratches, I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play a pair of $10 win tickets on turf horses that seem well-meant at reasonable prices. #9 NEW YORK’S FINEST returns to his favorite track in the third, and #3 MONDEUSE looks like the main speed in the finale. If one of them wins, it’s a good day. If both win, it turns into a great one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wartime Hero, Race 5
Longshot: New York’s Finest, Race 3

Sea Pines (MTO)
I’m So Sorry
Mystic Eyes

#2 I’M SO SORRY: Is entered on Wednesday and may run there, but if she doesn’t, she hits me as the one to beat in the Thursday lid-lifter. She’s by Uncle Mo, her dam was a Grade 3 winner on both turf and synthetic, and she’s posted several strong drills here over the past month; #1 MYSTIC EYES: Boasts the formidable Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez tag team and a pedigree that suggests she’ll be a good one. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter and a half-sister to champion Boston Harbor, but that begs the question, why did she only sell for a modest $40,000 at auction last September?; #4 RAW HONEY: Is another first-time starter that has some pedigree to her. Her dam is a full sister to a nine-time winner and a half-sister to a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and sire Bal a Bali did plenty of damage on turf.

Moon Over Ny
Danny Deep Cuts
Lass

#2 MOON OVER NY: Debuts in this spot and may not need to be much to top this bunch. She worked well enough at Finger Lakes to justify a trip to the Spa, and this barn doesn’t ship horses in from central New York just for kicks; #8 DANNY DEEP CUTS: Was bet a bit in her debut back in May and didn’t have the best of trips that day. The outside post is a plus, but there was a voided claim out of that event, and the fact that she missed a bit of training after her unveiling is a red flag; #5 LASS: Ran reasonably well when third last time out at Belmont against open maiden claimers and goes back to the state-bred ranks here. She’ll also get Lasix for the first time in this spot, and it’s not like she needs to step forward much to get a big piece of this one.

Ninth Hour (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Chimney Rock

#9 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Loves going short over this turf course and sure looks like the main speed here. Aggressive rider Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and if he’s able to get comfortable on the front end, he could wind up with his sixth Saratoga victory; #7 CHIMNEY ROCK: Has loads of back class and was even second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. His last two starts were steps back, figures-wise, and this is a significant drop for an aggressive barn that’s achieved great success so far this summer; #3 ENCRYPTED: Had every right to need his most recent effort at Presque Isle, which was his first start since August of 2019. His European form was quite good, and if he runs back to some of those numbers, he’ll have a big chance at a big price.

Wicked Indeed (MTO)
Risk Manager
Panster

#10 RISK MANAGER: Goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan, and unlike most of this field, he’s shown an ability to rate and pass others late. I think the pace will be hotly-contested in this event, and that should set things up for a closer to pick up the pieces; #1 PANSTER: Tries two turns for the first time and is bred to want such a route. He closed from fourth to break his maiden two starts ago at Belmont, and a similar trip would put him in a strong position turning for home; #2 TURN OF EVENTS: Capitalized on a perfect, front-running trip to top claiming foes last time out. He’ll likely go early, and his best race can certainly win this, but there are rivals in the field (including one directly to his outside) that could force him to spend far more energy going into the first turn.

Wartime Hero
Z’finale
Magnificent Chrome

#1 WARTIME HERO: Has found a very, very soft spot for his return to the races. He’s been gelded since running fifth in the 2020 Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, but he’s one of only a few in here with a win going two turns on dirt, and if he’s anything close to what he was in 2020, the race will probably be for second; #8 Z’FINALE: Was fifth downstate at this level last time out, but that effort came against what was probably a better group. His two and three-back efforts weren’t bad, and he’s got enough tactical speed to be prominent early; #6 MAGNIFICENT CHROME: Merits a look at a big price solely base don his pedigree. Offspring of California Chrome are not sprinters, and this is the first time he’ll go two turns. That alone could move him up and into contention for a minor award.

Daufuskie Island (MTO)
No Time Alone
Boriman

#5 NO TIME ALONE: Took to the turf well when second at second asking downstate last month. Wesley Ward is as good as anyone with 2-year-olds, especially on the lawn, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back; #1 BORIMAN: Gets a tricky draw in his unveiling but could be good enough to overcome it. The July 22nd workout jumps off the page, he’s a half-brother to stakes winner Fog Alert, and second dam Rocket Alert won several high-level turf races overseas; #9 ERIDROMOS: Comes in with a solid turf pedigree and a pretty strong work tab. His dam was a stakes-winning 2-year-old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was ready to go at first asking.

Air Show (MTO)
Landbiscuit
Mr. Kringle

#7 LANDBISCUIT: Is a tepid top selection in a wide-open turf race. He’s never run a clunker in four career races, and he showed a new dimension when stalking and pouncing to win an off-the-turf event last time out; #5 MR. KRINGLE: Has a history of finding trouble but is certainly good enough to make an impact with smooth sailing. He was second and third in two races at this level last summer, so we know he likes it up here; #2 MYSTERY BANK: Likely needed his return to the races last month at Gulfstream, so I can draw a line through that effort. He won and ran third in two starts here a season ago, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s because the barn has been ice-cold since winning an off-the-turf race very early in the meet.

Irish Valor
Here’s Waldo
Our Man Mike

#4 IRISH VALOR: Is one of a few Finger Lakes shippers, and those always get my attention in lower-level state-bred races at Saratoga. He’s a consistent gelding with nine wins and 27 in-the-money finishes in 43 starts, and this barn doesn’t ship here for an excuse to travel; #8 HERE’S WALDO: Tried stakes company in central New York and probably found those waters a bit too deep. He stretches back out to two turns, may be the main speed in this event, and could lead them a long way at a nice number; #1 OUR MAN MIKE: Comes in off a failed turf experiment and may go favored based on his back class. He was second in a pair of stakes races last fall and won going a mile, but he’s never gone two turns before, and that may make him a bit tough to back at his likely price.

Lone Rock
Moretti
You’re to Blame

#3 LONE ROCK: Has won six of his last seven starts and looms large in the marathon Birdstone Stakes. His win in the Grade 2 Brooklyn was electric, and the next-out win by that day’s runner-up only enhances his stock coming into this event; #4 MORETTI: Won this event last year to cap off a run that also included a second behind Tacitus in the Grade 2 Suburban. He did improve in this year’s Suburban after being drubbed by Lone Rock in the Brooklyn, and a repeat of last year’s effort likely gets him a big piece of this; #6 YOU’RE TO BLAME: Took a gigantic step forward in his first start for Orlando Noda and dives back into the stakes waters here. He was second behind Moretti in last year’s event, and perhaps he’s just a runner that loves this oval.

R10

Mondeuse
Lazzinnaro entry
Escapewithfriends

#3 MONDEUSE: Looks like the main speed in here and did everything but win in a race at this level and distance downstate. Her running lines feature plenty of next-out winners, including the third-place finisher in that most recent event; #1 BELLA PRINCIPESSA: Goes back to the lawn after tiring to finish fourth in an off-the-turf event last month. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, as he likely had several options in this wide-open Thursday finale; #9 ESCAPEWITHFRIENDS: Rallied from last to be second in her debut despite not having much pace to chase in that six-furlong event. Her pedigree says two turns should not be an issue, and if another runner or two tests my top pick early, this one could be the main beneficiary.