bankroll | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/4/21)

Posted on August 2, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,290.60

I had a good weekend, for a variety of reasons. Some did not care for how I celebrated it, and I feel the need to briefly explain a few things.

For 10 months, the big mouths/egos on Twitter can go back and forth about who the best public/semi-public handicapper is.

From mid-July to Labor Day, at one of horse racing's last cathedrals? If your conversation doesn't start with me, it's a bad one.#Saratoga #OutWorkEveryone pic.twitter.com/IZeXvvRb5h

— Andrew Champagne (@AndrewChampagne) July 31, 2021

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Between my work for The Pink Sheet and other freelance outlets, I’m writing at least 10,000 words per week through Labor Day. This is in addition to videos and podcasts I do, and it all comes on top of a full-time job as the Communications and Marketing Manager at SHELTER, Inc., a non-profit in Northern California’s Bay Area that fights the homelessness crisis.

I do this because I’m extremely passionate about the game, and because I love producing content people enjoy and use as tools to make money. For me, there’s no better feeling than when good content becomes winning content, and that’s my biggest motivation, far above both “selfish pride” and “money in the bank.”

When that happens, you bet I’m going to show plenty of fire. Without that fire, my content wouldn’t be nearly as sharp, I’d be a far less proficient horseplayer, and you probably wouldn’t be reading my stuff, either in print or online. This sport can’t survive without passionate people. I’m proud to say I’m one of them, and if you enjoy my stuff and the way I do things, thank you.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, rotten luck. My stance against the favorite in the Sunday opener proved correct, but when an 0-for-24 maiden with a horrible post position got home first, my $36 worth of Pick Five tickets went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: My action comes pretty early, as I’ll focus on the second race of the day. If #6 MACH ONE’s turf form comes to dirt on the class drop for an aggressive outfit, I think he’s got a big shot. I’ll put $15 on him to win and single him in $5 doubles ending with #3 TAKE THE BACKROADS, #8 CEE ARE EM, and #13 I’M SO SORRY in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Empress of War, Race 6
Longshot: Mach One, Race 2

Perfect Tapatino
Chetzeron
Ritzy A.P.

#2 PERFECT TAPATINO: Won his first start over fences in May before trying much tougher company last time out. He was fifth in a stakes race, and that day’s runner-up, Baltimore Bucko, came right back to take the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick earlier this summer; #7 CHETZERON: Was never challenged in a runaway score against maidens and faces winners for the first time. What he beat that day is anyone’s guess, but it sure seems like he’s got plenty of early zip, and if he’s got talent, he could lead them a long way; #3 RITZY A.P.: Graduated out of the steeplechase maiden ranks last time out at Colonial and chased my top pick two back in his first start over fences. He showed plenty of ability on the flat, where he was a stakes-placed runner.

Mach One
Cousin Andrew
Leading West

#6 MACH ONE: Takes a big drop for an aggressive barn and goes from turf to dirt. His recent drills look very impressive, he sure seems like the main early speed in this event, and his turf form is certainly good enough if he can replicate it on the main track; #7 COUSIN ANDREW: Will certainly take plenty of money dropping into the maiden claiming ranks for Chad Brown. However, I have my doubts. This barn’s Monmouth shippers seem like the B-team, and it’s not like his figures tower over the competition here; #4 LEADING WEST: Hasn’t run since September but can’t be ignored, especially given the success of trainer Mike Maker this summer. The last two five-furlong works look sharp, and he could stand to benefit if there’s a speed duel up front.

Take the Backroads
I’m So Sorry
Cee Are Em

#3 TAKE THE BACKROADS: Tries turf for the first time and has the pedigree to love it. She’s a half to both Grade 3 winner Sistas Stroll and stakes-placed Accredit, who did their damage on grass, and her speed and experience edges over most of these could be big advantages; #13 I’M SO SORRY: Needs luck to draw in but must be respected if she does. She’s by Uncle Mo, her dam was a Grade 3 winner on both turf and synthetic, and she’s posted several strong drills here over the past month; #8 CEE ARE EM: Has a world-class turf pedigree, as she’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and sire Data Link. Her dam is also a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Vespers, who doubles as the dam of Grade 1 hero Hymn Book.

Coffee Bar
Enough Love
Ifihadachance

#4 COFFEE BAR: Makes her second start off the bench and didn’t run terribly in her return last month. She stretches out to two turns in this one, and her lone start over such a configuration saw her run a competitive second in a stakes race at Aqueduct; #6 ENOUGH LOVE: Ships up from Parx and runs in New York for the first time since last September. She’s better now than she was then, and she’s shown she can go two turns, which is a question mark for several of her competitors; #2 IFIHADACHANCE: Was second against similar going a mile last time out downstate, but she hasn’t won in quite a while and goes two turns for the first time since last September. She was a distant fourth at Finger Lakes that day, and her 9/5 morning line price hits me as an underlay.

Shaker Shack (MTO)
Sport Model
Funwhileitlasted

#5 SPORT MODEL: Has won both turf races she’s finished, including a similar New York Stallion Series race downstate. Her pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be an issue, and the tag team of Irad Ortiz, Jr., and Christophe Clement must be respected; #1 FUNWHILEITLASTED: Was second in that event and rallied from seventh to finish just a half-length back of my top pick. Based off of that effort, she fits, although two turns is a question mark; #6 BIG TIME LADY: Didn’t make the lead last time out and never fired as a result. There seems to be a little less early zip signed on here, and she was a solid third in an ungraded stakes race going two turns late last year.

Empress of War
Shamalamadingdong
Fancy Feline

#3 EMPRESS OF WAR: Ran very well in her debut over a muddy track at Belmont before an adventurous journey cost her all chance last time out. She’s since switched barns, and new trainer Michael Miceli has hit at a solid 19% clip with new acquisitions; #4 SHAMALAMADINGDONG: Stalked a very slow pace downstate and couldn’t get by the winner. Despite the fact that those two were more than 11 lengths clear of the rest, that’s a red flag, and I just can’t back her at or near her morning line price; #7 FANCY FELINE: Didn’t take to the turf last time out and may have bounced off of a decent third in her unveiling downstate. The outside draw seems like a plus, and Luis Saez seeing fit to ride back is certainly a plus.

Montauk Daddy
Wild William
Our Destiny

#1 MONTAUK DADDY: Drew the rail and has the early speed necessary to take advantage of that post position. The Rob Atras barn has had plenty of success at this stand, and it’s easy to see him making the lead and being very tough to catch; #9 WILD WILLIAM: Had every right to need his last-out effort, which came off a six-month break. It’s safe to assume something went wrong in the two-back race as well, and given his strong local record, I think there’s reason to expect a step forward here at a nice price; #5 OUR DESTINY: Has won two in a row and ships to the Spa, where he owns a win in his lone prior start at this route. The question is, does he have enough speed to outpace my top pick, or will he be stuck dueling for the lead off the rail going into the turn?

Bayerness
Casual
Aunt Kat

#1 BAYERNESS: Has kept very good company and exits a second-place finish in a listed stakes race at Monmouth Park. She was third in a Grade 3 at Belmont two back, and that day’s runner-up came back to run a big second in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss here last week; #4 CASUAL: Merits respect for trainer Steve Asmussen and will likely do her best running late. Her best race would put her right there, although the recent work pattern seems atypical of horses from this outfit; #2 AUNT KAT: Reeled off three straight wins downstate and makes her first start against stakes foes here. The recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma track is encouraging, though I think she may need to expend more energy to hit the front here than she has in her last several outings.

Danny California (MTO)
En Wye Cee
L’Imperator

#1 EN WYE CEE: Has clearly had his issues given the long layoffs, but has shown ample talent and will have every chance if he’s ready to run. He was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker, and his versatility should be a big advantage here; #2 L’IMPERATOR: Has only run in the U.S. once, and it came in a race contested over one of the softest turf courses in Saratoga history. That dud is a complete throw-out, and he merits respect for the Brown barn in his 2021 debut; #3 EVER DANGEROUS: Has plenty of back class and pulled off a 74-1 shocker in a stakes race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. He’s since run several decent races at Gulfstream and Churchill and could have a say here in a stacked optional claiming event.

R10

Trumpet Lilly (MTO)
Ocean Air
Viburnum

#10 OCEAN AIR: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale where it seems like half the field could conceivably win. She’s finished second in back-to-back tries at this level downstate, and her usual race would absolutely give her a big chance here; #13 VIBURNUM: Hasn’t won in a while but hits me as a contender if she’s able to draw in off the AE list. She was a tough-luck second going two turns at Delaware Park last time out, and the faster the early pace is, the better her chances figure to be; #8 EVIDENCE BASED: Comes back to her preferred surface after struggling in an off-the-turf event earlier in the meet. Her two-back effort at Belmont was very good, and while she switched barns after that race, a re-channeling of that form could be enough for her to make an impact at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/1/21)

Posted on July 31, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,326.60

Predictably, horse racing Twitter had very animated reactions to the jockey introductions prior to Saturday’s Jim Dandy Stakes. As I stated when they initially rolled these out a few years ago, I don’t have a problem with them. If they don’t scare horses, and if jockeys are fine with the added bells and whistles, it’s a-OK with me.

We need to do more to celebrate the people who bust their butts every day to keep the industry’s wheels turning. Given that jockeys do some of the most dangerous work in all of sports, any chance we can get to recognize them should be taken and run with. For that reason, along with a few others (I’m a wrestling fan, after all), I endorse the intros, provided they’re kept in moderation and saved for the biggest races on the calendar.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Between the exacta I hit on the Kentucky Derby undercard and the one I hit in the A.G. Vanderbilt, Lexitonian is rocketing up my “favorite horses of all-time” list. Pick Threes fizzled after we ran second in the first leg, but the $2 exacta box connected for $367. My only regret is that I didn’t play the trifecta, which included all three horses I used and came back at $525 for a 50-cent bet.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Five, which of course kicks off in the first race of the day. My 50-cent ticket looks like this: 1,5,10 with 3,5 with 1,7 with 9,10 with 1,3,7. I usually set my sights on Pick Fours, but I feel #2 EVERESTING is very vulnerable at 2-1 in the opener, and beating that one may knock plenty of tickets out right away.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 9
Longshot: Kenner, Race 5

Bush entry
Thruster
Uncle Mo’s Cat

BUSH ENTRY: The same barn houses two contenders in a wide-open Sunday opener. I prefer #1A CONGRATS FOR GLORY, whose two-back effort was pretty solid and would be a contender should he return to that form; #10 THRUSTER: Is a deep closer, which means he may need an ideal setup but also that the far outside post shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Jose Ortiz could be able to drop him back out of the gate, save ground, and come running late; #5 UNCLE MO’S CAT: Was a decent third last time out over yielding going downstate, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back. He’s run like a horse that will improve with experience, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

Popular Vote (MTO)
Silvery Rill
Blissful

#5 SILVERY RILL: Is bred to want precisely this race as her first career outing. She’s by all-world sire War Front, out of Grade 3 turf winner Stays in Vegas, and boasts the formidable tag team of Joel Rosario and trainer Christophe Clement; #3 BLISSFUL: Hammered for $350,000 earlier this year and is bred to be a strong turf horse. Her dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner on the lawn, and her full sister, Keri Belle, took down a Grade 3 of her own during her racing days; #4 WATERVILLE: Is the “other” Christophe Clement trainee here and could have some potential. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy is out of a graded stakes winner that has thrown four prior winners, including multiple stakes winner Sea Foam.

Lookin for Loki
Eucharist
Full Court Press

#1 LOOKIN FOR LOKI: Has plenty of back form and takes a huge drop in class off the claim by Danny Gargan. Over the past three years, Gargan is 5-for-7 with new acquisitions dropping by 50% or more in claiming price, and his best can absolutely beat this bunch; #7 EUCHARIST: Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out, and he may very well have been rusty given the long layoff. He’s another class-dropper, and perhaps he’ll be more ready to go for the red-hot Mike Maker barn in this spot; #2 FULL COURT PRESS: Was taken off the pace last time out but still managed to run third that day. It’s possible these connections discovered some flexibility here, and there certainly seems to be plenty of early speed signed on to set up for his newfound late kick.

Tenderness (MTO)
Jill’s a Hot Mess
Translate

#9 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Found her form after being switched to the turf two starts ago, and she’ll make her first outing for new conditioner Linda Rice here. On paper, it’s a step up in class, but on figures, she absolutely fits and could be in line for a new career-best given Rice’s record with new acquisitions; #10 TRANSLATE: Was in strong form earlier this year, when she ran well plenty of times out west. The outside post isn’t ideal, and her form has taken a step back since coming east, but her best could absolutely thump her rivals; #4 LILLY SIMONE: Earned her diploma last time out in her first start for a tag. I’m not sure what she beat in that event, but she looked good doing it and this isn’t the toughest spot to run against winners for the first time.

Rotknee
Whittington Park
Kenner

#3 ROTKNEE: Debuted with a good second at Belmont and finished nearly five lengths clear of the third-place finisher. His lone work since that effort was a bullet drill downstate, and he’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking for the hottest barn on the circuit; #1 WHITTINGTON PARK: Debuts for Brad Cox and may very well be good enough to overcome the rail draw. His dam has thrown four runners, and they’ve all won multiple times, including multiple stakes winner Critical Value; #7 KENNER: Has a very interesting work tab and ships up from Delaware Park for a barn that doesn’t run many in New York. His second dam is graded stakes winner Lovely Lil, who has thrown three winners, including recent first-out victor American Xperiment.

Foxtail (MTO)
Miss Teheran
New York Girl

#5 MISS TEHERAN: Hasn’t run a bad race since coming across the pond after the 2018 season. She goes to a two-turn route of ground here, and she’s run her best races over similar configurations. Between that and the presence of legitimate early speed, I think this Chad Brown trainee will get an optimal setup; #1 NEW YORK GIRL: Has spent this year tackling graded stakes competition, and she’s better than she showed in the Grade 1 Just A Game on Belmont Stakes Day. Her back class is evident, and if she can work out a trip from her tricky inside post, she could be in a position to stalk and pounce turning for home; #7 ENOLA GAY: Won last year’s Grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland, but hasn’t run since September. She was fifth in the rich Saratoga Oaks over this turf course a season ago, and she could have a big say in this one if she’s ready to run off of such a long layoff.

Aloha West
Night Time
Town Classic

#6 ALOHA WEST: Gets a tepid nod in a tricky optional claiming event. He was most recently fourth in a minor stakes race at Churchill Downs, and that day’s winner, Bango, has since come back to win again. If he’s able to rate behind a fast pace, he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #7 NIGHT TIME: Hasn’t won since this meet last year, when he prevailed over allowance company. He ran reasonably well last month at Churchill in his first race since November, and he’s good enough to win if he’s fully-cranked; #3 TOWN CLASSIC: Broke through when dropped in for a tag at Belmont and was claimed that day by Mike Maker. He’s hit the board in 38 of 52 career starts, and his 97 Beyer Speed Figure from that romp is by far the highest such last-out number in the field.

Bayshore Foxes (MTO)
Mirabell Mei
Summer in the City

#2 MIRABELL MEI: Hasn’t won in a while but is entered for a tag for the first time in a while. She’s run reasonably well twice this season against starter allowance foes. This seems like a weaker bunch, and her chances would get even better if a solid early pace is set that sets up for her late-running style; #10 SUMMER IN THE CITY: Was rated last time out against starter allowance foes, and that probably isn’t what she wants to do. She’s usually up far closer to the pace, and if she gets that kind of trip on the drop in class, she’ll have every chance to win this; #6 AMORTIZATION: Will run for a tag for the first time in her young career. Between that and the presence of top trainer Chad Brown, she may make a lot of sense to some. Personally, I see works at Monmouth Park as a big red flag for this outfit, but based on numbers, she absolutely fits here.

Jackie’s Warrior
Crowded Trade
Drain the Clock

#3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Did everything but win last time in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He broke slowly, rushed up, did all the dirty work while setting a fast pace, and was beaten just a neck. If he gets out to a cleaner start in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, I think the race could be for second money; #6 CROWDED TRADE: Was scratched from an allowance race earlier in the meet but has been working well enough to where I’m seeing his entry here as a sign of confidence. The outside post is a plus, and his only prior start going short was a first-out win at Aqueduct; #2 DRAIN THE CLOCK: Benefited from Jackie’s Warrior’s poor start last time out and has done very little wrong, winning six of eight career starts to date. This barn, however, has gone a bit cold of late, and the 97 Beyer Speed Figure last time out was a new career-high by 11 points. He’s good enough to win, but perhaps he’s in line for a bounce, and 2-1 seems a bit short for my liking.

R10

Esotica
Not a Trace
Know It All Red

#1 ESOTICA: Ran a career-best race when third in the slop at Belmont back in May. She’s got enough speed to use the inside draw to her advantage, and that and her back form are enough to make her my tepid top pick in the Sunday finale; #10 NOT A TRACE: Was third in an off-the-turf race on Independence Day, and her form suggests she may have been a dirt horse all along. She was a good second three starts back, and she’s got enough speed to be on or near the lead from the first jump; #4 KNOW IT ALL RED: Has run second in back-to-back tries against similar, and the last-out effort came with a wide trip and resulted in her highest career Beyer Speed Figure. There may be enough speed in here to provide a friendly race shape, and at least we know she can pass horses in the later stages.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/31/21)

Posted on July 29, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $983.60

These are the cards that make Saratoga special. We’ll see a trio of graded stakes races with some of the most well-known horses in the sport. Belmont Stakes hero Essential Quality headlines the Jim Dandy, Whitmore runs up against a strong field in the A.G. Vanderbilt, and multiple Grade 1 winner Channel Maker makes his first start after a trip abroad in the Bowling Green.

Combine that slate with a bunch of big fields in undercard races, and you have a card that should give even the most jaded handicapper a jolt of excitement. On a day like this, you only need to be right once or twice to have a profitable afternoon, and that’s all I can possibly ask for.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Collaborate loomed boldly in the Curlin, but seemingly forgot how to turn left with about a quarter-mile to go. I got a bit of a thrill at odds of 8-1, but ultimately dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the Vanderbilt, because I don’t like #2 MISCHEVIOUS ALEX at all. It goes as the eighth race on the program, and I’ll box #1 LEXITONIAN, #6 WHITMORE, and #9 SPECIAL RESERVE in $2 exactas. I’ll also use those three horses in the middle of a $2 Pick Three starting in the seventh. I’ll use #2 INVINCIBLE GAL and #8 LOVE AND THUNDER there and single #5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY in the ninth, the Jim Dandy.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Essential Quality, Race 9
Longshot: Lexitonian, Race 8

Master Game
Kevin’s Folly
Woodline

#2 MASTER GAME: Hammered for $300,000 last year and has several flashy gate drills for soon-to-be Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. Expectations are high for offspring of young sire Mastery, and this one looks pretty precocious; #3 KEVIN’S FOLLY: Also shows a solid work pattern coming into his unveiling. He’s bred to want far more distance than this 5 1/2-furlong event, but Tom Amoss has already unveiled one flashy 2-year-old this meet and may have more bullets in the chamber; #6 WOODLINE: Has a major experience edge on the field and was second behind a runaway winner that ran in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier in the meet. He does have some early speed, but he appears to have hooked some promising first-time starters and may need to improve further to win.

Majestic Sky
Eight Weeks Long
Gateway Guardian

#12 MAJESTIC SKY: Is a tepid top selection in the first of several very befuddling turf races on the Saturday program. He was inexplicably rated behind a very slow pace last time out at Belmont, and in this event, he sure looks like not just the main speed, but like a horse whose hand is forced by the far outside draw; #3 EIGHT WEEKS LONG: Exits the same race as my top pick and ran third that day while sitting a bit closer to the pace than usual. That may have been an aberration given the slow pace, but his usual effort would give him a shot; #4 GATEWAY GUARDIAN: Didn’t do much running first time out, but debuting in a one-mile race is no easy task and David Donk’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. I think he could improve at a price, and it wouldn’t take a huge step forward to get a piece of this.

Zilla entry
Cathy Naz
Saratoga Beauty

ZILLA ENTRY: Both #1 MISS LIANA and #1A FLAT AWESOME JENNY could win this, and they certainly look like the class of the field. The former has a bit more tactical speed and returns to the right level, so I’d give her the slight edge if I had to choose one; #3 CATHY NAZ: Has run a few solid races over this track and seems to be working well ahead of her first start since January. Saez sees fit to ride for Bond, and he was aboard for her one recent win; #4 SARATOGA BEAUTY: Makes her first start off the claim for Ray Handal, whose barn may be starting to heat up. Her form this past winter and spring was solid, and she’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time out downstate.

High Tone
Pivotal Run
Brennan’s War

#7 HIGH TONE: Ran very well in his first start since last July when second in a two-turn turf route at Churchill. That was against open company, and he’s back against New York-breds in his first start for new trainer Ron Moquett; #3 PIVOTAL RUN: Had every right to need his last-out effort off of such a long layoff, and he was claimed out of that race by George Weaver, who excels with new acquisitions. He was a good second at this route in his debut last summer, and a return to two turns could help him find his form; #8 BRENNAN’S WAR: Made a bit of a move when third in his debut last month, and that effort came from a barn whose first-time starters don’t often win. I’m not sure what he ran against that day, but figures-wise, it was a solid effort that gives him a chance here.

Honey Money
Behind the Couch
Out First

#5 HONEY MONEY: Is far better than she showed last time out, when she faded to sixth in the mud earlier in the meet. She’s no fan of wet racetracks, and she reeled off three wins in a row over fast surfaces prior to that misfire; #4 BEHIND THE COUCH: Earned her first win in quite a while last time out after several close calls following a claim by John Salzman. This is her first start against New York-bred competition since last June, and perhaps the lightbulb has gone off; #8 OUT FIRST: Just never seemed like she was interested last time out, and I have no problem drawing a line through that clunker. She’s been competitive at this level many times, and she’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

Causin’ Mayhem (MTO)
Ohtwoohthreefive
Doctor Davis

#7 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE: Was very impressive when second in his debut downstate. He rated well off of a slow pace but made up enough ground to finish second, beaten just two lengths. He’s bred to love two turns and will be formidable if he holds his form; #10 DOCTOR DAVIS: Has been working very fast for a Bill Mott trainee ahead of his debut. Mott’s first-time starters don’t usually turn in bullet drills, as he did on July 2nd, and he may be talented enough to have a say in this one at a bit of a price; #1 SWEEPING GIANT: Is one of two Todd Pletcher runners that will debut here. I prefer this one over #4 ROYAL SPIRIT. His dam was ultra-classy turf runner Isabella Sings, who did her best work going long.

Trumpet Lilly (MTO)
Invincible Gal
Love And Thunder

#2 INVINCIBLE GAL: Was favored in the Tepin Stakes but went up against a very unfavorable race shape, as the wire-to-wire winner coasted on an easy pace. Blinkers go on, she gets Lasix for the first time, and these waters certainly seem shallower; #8 LOVE AND THUNDER: Is a logical favorite after a tough beat last time out. She nearly overcame a pretty slow pace that day, and the third-place finisher from that event came back to win at next asking; #7 HIGH OPINION: Cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile and a quarter at Belmont. She’s been second three times in four tries against winners, and while her figures give her a chance, sometimes horses turn into pack animals that have a tough time passing others late.

Special Reserve
Whitmore
Lexitonian

#9 SPECIAL RESERVE: Has really turned a corner since being claimed by Mike Maker in February. He’s won four of his last five starts, including two stakes races, and between his tactical speed and the cushy outside draw, I think he’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt; #6 WHITMORE: Is one of the coolest horses in training and returns to Saratoga for another race or two at the summer place to be. He’s still competitive at the highest level as an 8-year-old, and any hesitation here is because it’s his first start off a layoff and he may need a race to get going; #1 LEXITONIAN: Is a nose and a head away from being a two-time Grade 1 winner. His Met Mile was too terrible to be true, but his two-back effort in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs was excellent, as was a recent local workout. If he’s right, he’s got a shot to take this at a big price.

Essential Quality
Masqueparade
Weyburn

#5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Is probably the top 3-year-old in training and looms large in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. The three-time Grade 1 winner earned a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Belmont Stakes, and anything remotely close to that would easily dispatch this bunch; #2 MASQUEPARADE: Has moved forward significantly in his last several starts, one of which was a win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. He beat a decent field that day and has every right to be getting better midway through his 3-year-old season; #3 WEYBURN: Gave eventual Haskell winner Mandaloun all he could handle in the Pegasus at Monmouth last time out and has shown two turns is not a problem. The recent string of bullet drills can’t be ignored, and neither can the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr.

R10

Channel Maker
Cross Border
Moon Over Miami

#5 CHANNEL MAKER: Emerged as the East Coast’s top turf horse a season ago and makes his first start following an expedition to the Arabian Peninsula. Between his back class and the fact that he looks like the lone speed, I think he’ll sit an ideal trip and be very tough to run down in the Grade 2 Bowling Green; #2 CROSS BORDER: Won this race a season ago by DQ and does his best running over this turf course. He hasn’t won in a while, but it isn’t like he hasn’t been competitive and perhaps he’ll relish a return to upstate New York; #7 MOON OVER MIAMI: Wants to sit back and make one run, and has done so to fair success this season with three in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races. That includes a close-up third last time out downstate, and he’s shown enough class to be respected here.

R11

Villainous (MTO)
Morocco
Hieroglyphics

#3 MOROCCO: Takes a gigantic drop second off the claim, which can be seen as a good or bad thing. In this case, I think he’s coming back to the right level, and if he channels his form from this past winter, he could be more than good enough to beat this bunch; #8 HIEROGLYPHICS: Has won three of six at Saratoga, and the most recent score here last summer kick-started a run of four wins in six starts. One of them was a win at this level downstate, and if he brought his form to the barn of new trainer Dominick Schettino, he’ll have a big shot; #7 TIZZARUNNER: Was second last time out at this level at Churchill, and he put forth that effort despite having to close into a slow pace. He’s a major player here, but this isn’t an easy spot for the level and he may want more pace than he’s likely to get in the Saturday finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/30/21)

Posted on July 28, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,003.60

Mother Nature was at it again Thursday. Rain that battered Saratoga in the morning and early-afternoon hours forced all but one turf race to be run on the main track. This stuff happens, and obviously, we can’t control the weather, but I hate the way NYRA dealt with it.

Waiting until after the first race was run to make that decision made the third an “ALL” in the early Pick Five. This penalized players with strong opinions in that race, which is never a good thing (if you singled a horse, you got one payout, whereas if you hit the “ALL” button, you got paid several times). In addition, this came long after the scratch deadline, so most main-track-only horses entered in the event of a Saratoga monsoon (copyright Tom Amello, all rights reserved) didn’t get a chance to capitalize on an ideal situation.

We knew rain was coming. Why not get out in front of it, move races off the turf early, and make the best of a bad situation? I take no pleasure in bashing NYRA, and they do a lot of things right. Handling this in this fashion, though, made higher-ups look unprepared at best and Charlie Brown on a pitcher’s mound in the rain-level naive at worst.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Triple Americano prevailed in the fifth, but longshot of the day Ravizzol dropped anchor after a quarter-mile. Scratches reduced our losses to $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: My lone bet of the entire day comes in the feature. I think #4 FIRST CAPTAIN is no cinch in the Curlin, and that #6 COLLABORATE will likely be an overlay. I’ll put $20 on him to win, and I hope we get that 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Repole entry, Race 2
Longshot: Little Red Button, Race 10

Sugar and Speights
Free Ninety Nine
Laoban’s Legacy

#8 SUGAR AND SPEIGHTS: Recorded a flashy half-mile gate drill here on July 15th and drew a cushy outside post in her unveiling. Christophe Clement hits at a 23% clip with debuting runners, and first-call rider Joel Rosario will be aboard; #5 FREE NINETY NINE: Has been working consistently at Belmont, and her two most recent drills represent a significant step forward. Mike Maker’s off to a great start at the meet, and this one seems well-meant; #7 LAOBAN’S LEGACY: Sold for $150,000 earlier this year and may very well go favored, but I have reservations. Her work tab is just so-so, and while Jeremiah Englehart is a world-class horseman, he hasn’t gotten going yet at this stand. 2-1 seems like an underlay, and I’ll try to beat her.

Repole entry
Chao
Blue Cat

REPOLE ENTRY: Both #1 RESTORED ORDER and #1A HYPERFOCUS are taking big class drops, and they loom large in this spot. I don’t see the class drops as a negative, as owner Mike Repole is very aggressive and wants to compete for owner’s titles every summer; #7 CHAO: Put forth a career-best effort last time out at Gulfstream Park, where he dispatched a field of optional claiming foes. These are deeper waters, but perhaps he’s finding his form midway through his 3-year-old season; #8 BLUE CAT: Responded to a class drop last time out with a narrow win at a similar level in Kentucky. This turned out to be a significantly tougher spot, but a repeat of his most recent effort could be enough for a piece of this.

Advance Notice (MTO)
Kasim
Montauk Daddy

#4 KASIM: Was claimed by the red-hot Danny Gargan barn last time out and has lots of back form sprinting on turf. His dud last time out came over a wet main track, and if he rediscovers his early-season form for this new outfit, he’ll be the one to hold off late; #10 MONTAUK DADDY: Has stepped forward since being claimed by Rob Atras late last year. The far outside post can be a dicey proposition, but he sure looks like the main early speed here, and he could lead them a long way; #6 AHEAD OF PLAN: Owns a win at this route from last summer, albeit against maiden claiming foes. Based on figures, his best race could certainly win, but it sure didn’t seem like he had any excuses last time out at this level, and that’s a concern.

Control Group
Sea Foam
Too Early

#6 CONTROL GROUP: Is an incredibly fun horse to root for and has won 17 of 47 lifetime starts. That includes four victories in seven starts over this surface and a solid last-out score at Belmont, and I think he’s a legitimate favorite; #2 SEA FOAM: Had every right to need his 2021 debut off of a layoff of more than five months. He’s another win-type that likes going two turns at Saratoga, and a return to form would give him a shot; #4 TOO EARLY: Has hit the board in each of his last seven outings and broke his maiden at this route of ground last summer. He comes in off of back-to-back 94 Beyer Speed Figures, and another such effort would put him right there in this stakes-caliber optional claiming event.

Coach Bahe
The Big Kahuna
Litterbox

#10 COACH BAHE: Merits respect on a significant class drop for a barn that’s already saddled several winners at the meet. He was reasonably competitive in his last two outings for $50,000 tags, so it stands to reason he’ll move forward now that he’s in for half of that price; #11 THE BIG KAHUNA: Is a big favorite on the morning line, but I think much of that is due to the barn he comes from. His figures don’t dwarf those of the rest of the field, and while he does drop in class, the recent slow work over this track hits me as a big red flag; #3 LITTERBOX: Has a record that looks far better if you solely consider the dirt sprints. He was an OK second against similar last time out, and he stands to benefit if there’s a pace meltdown in this seven-furlong race.

American Xperiment (MTO)
Castle Leoch
Fan the Fire

#9 CASTLE LEOCH: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open turf sprint for 2-year-olds. He ran well when second in his unveiling back in May and has turned in a pair of strong works over the training track since shipping here earlier this month; #8 FAN THE FIRE: Has been working well for Maker, attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., and owns a strong turf sprint pedigree. Sire Hard Spun is a strong grass influence, and his bottom-side pedigree includes top-class female sprinter/third dam Victory Ride; #5 PIQUA: Has plenty to suggest he’s got some potential. He sold for six figures at Keeneland last September, and his dam is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner and top Canadian sire Silent Name. I’m just not sure if he’ll need a race or two to get going.

Winter Pool
Hombrazo
Top Gun Tommy

#6 WINTER POOL: Sure seemed to wake up when shipped to Churchill, and he’s run well in each of his last two starts. He just missed in his first start going two turns last time out, and his pedigree says he’s only going to get better with more experience and more distance; #2 HOMBRAZO: Responded to being claimed by Joe Sharp and the addition of blinkers with an easy score over claiming company last month. He’s shown plenty of two-turn form in the past, and the change in surroundings may have helped him put things together; #4 TOP GUN TOMMY: Has won or run second in each of his last four starts, and one of those runner-up finishes came to next-out Grade 1 winner Known Agenda. This is his second start off a layoff, and his tactical speed is certainly a plus.

Claytnthelionheart (MTO)
Compliant
Mud Pie

#8 COMPLIANT: Gets a tepid nod in a turf marathon that hits me as extremely wide-open. Several of his opponents seem to want to go early. That could set things up for a closer, and this one has run well in three starts since stretching out to marathon distances; #3 MUD PIE: Goes second off the bench for patient connections and is another that could benefit from a speed duel. His lone win came going 12 furlongs at Kentucky Downs, and he should improve getting back to that type of route; #10 BOX N SCORE: Will need to navigate a trip from a far outside post, but he’s shown an ability to go a marathon distance in the past. Should he be able to save ground and get a pace to run at, he’ll have every chance to do some damage.

Collaborate
First Captain
Beren

#6 COLLABORATE: Has been working lights-out ahead of his New York debut in the Curlin and looms an attractive alternative to the likely favorite. He was 9/2 in the Grade 1 Florida Derby earlier this season and may now have the maturity necessary to go two turns effectively; #4 FIRST CAPTAIN: Is 3-for-3 and exits a win in the Grade 3 Dwyer downstate. He was 2/5 that day, though, and it sure seemed like he worked far harder than anticipated. Maybe he’s good enough to beat these, but I can’t stomach taking him on top at such a short price; #5 BEREN: Has gotten very good very quickly and comes in having won five times in his last six outings. I’m not convinced he wants to go two turns, but if he stretches out effectively, he could be a handful for connections that must be respected when they show up in big spots.

R10

Lemon Taffy
Little Red Button
Killoean Rose

#15 LEMON TAFFY: Needs a lot of luck to draw in but may prove tough to beat if she does. Her two turf tries at this level have been solid, and against a largely-unproven group of state-bred maiden claimers, “solid” may well be enough; #9 LITTLE RED BUTTON: Is 0-for-10 but looks significantly better if you solely consider her route races. This seems like what she wants to do, and Jose Ortiz’s presence is certainly encouraging; #4 KILLOEAN ROSE: Makes her career debut in this spot and simply may not have to be much to make an impact. Add in that she’s bred up and down for distance and is a half-sister to five winners, and I think there’s reason to throw her in at anywhere close to her 15-1 morning line price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/29/21)

Posted on July 27, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,023.60

Steeplechase racing opens the door for things we don’t see often, and I’ve never seen anything like what happened in Wednesday’s Jonathan Kiser. The Mean Queen was the 1/2 favorite, and she looked home after hitting the stretch in front by open lengths. However, she veered in with less than a furlong to go, and in the process of correcting her course, jockey Tom Garner was dislodged.

Thankfully, Garner walked off and appeared to be okay as of this writing, and The Mean Queen also seemed no worse for wear. The connections involved have my sympathies, as do any bettors who needed The Mean Queen for any of their wagers. That’s an all-time bad beat, and a story those affected will be telling for a long, long time.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: As the tout in “Let It Ride” shouted ad nauseam, “had the daily double!” Bell’s the One was as good as advertised, and Jose Ortiz gave Caribbean Gold a terrific ride to steal the finale on the lead. Our $21 investment wound up returning $78.60.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race of the day, a maiden claiming event with a big field. #1 TRIPLE AMERICANO is my tepid top pick, but I also think #6 RAVIZZOL is a must-use at or near his likely price. I’ll box those two in $5 exactas, and I’ll also use them to finish $2 doubles that start in the fourth with #6 VINEYARD SOUND and #9 HIGH HEATER. Finally, I’ll put $3 to win and place on Ravizzol to ensure that, if he wins, I make money (regardless of other outcomes).

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Gabby Squared, Race 10
Longshot: Ravizzol, Race 5

Mo Heat
Johnnypump
Bourbon Rising

#7 MO HEAT: Sure looks like the main speed in the Thursday opener, and a repeat of his last-out effort would make him tough. In a field with many horses that don’t seem to want to pass others, his early zip is a real asset, and I think he can lead them all the way around; #4 JOHNNYPUMP: Goes two turns on dirt for the first time since January, and that effort wasn’t bad. He was a close-up fourth at Aqueduct, and that day’s winner came right back to win again, so perhaps he’s back to what he wants to do; #5 BOURBON RISING: Ran third in the race my top pick exits and should sit just off that one’s flank early. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his lone two-turn dirt race was one of the weakest efforts of his career.

Control Group (MTO)
Cold Hard Cash
Straw Into Gold

#1 COLD HARD CASH: Ran well twice against similar downstate and has enough speed to use the rail draw on the inner turf to his advantage. His best efforts have come going two turns, and this configuration should play to his strengths; #7 STRAW INTO GOLD: Drops back into a state-bred race after finishing third in the Manila at Belmont. He hasn’t run a bad one in four career starts, but his figures don’t dwarf those of his competition, and it’s sometimes tough for fairly-inexperienced 3-year-olds to run well against older competition; #2 MO FAITH: Is better than his last-out effort would indicate, and it’s safe to assume he didn’t take to the yielding going. His races prior to that one were pretty sharp, and the last-out clunker may drive up his price a bit.

Shoe Shine (MTO)
Auburn Hills
Mystery Bank

#3 AUBURN HILLS: Hasn’t run a bad one since being claimed by Mike Maker earlier this year at Gulfstream. He was third against what was probably a better group last time out, and it looks like there’ll be enough pace to set up for his late kick; #2 MYSTERY BANK: Had every right to need his 2021 debut on Independence Day at Gulfstream and returns to the site of his maiden-breaking score last summer. His best race would likely be good enough here, but my one hesitation is that he may want even more ground; #10 RECKLESS SPIRIT: May have found the right level, as he was a decent second against similar company last month. He was wide that day and is another that will benefit from the likely race shape, which should include a solid pace.

Vineyard Sound
High Heater
The Queens Jules

#6 VINEYARD SOUND: Has plenty of speed and exits a classy $20,000 claiming event where he checked in third. That day’s runner-up came back to win a few days ago, and these waters are probably a bit more shallow; #9 HIGH HEATER: Won for this claiming price twice earlier this year in Florida and was probably in a bit over his head in his last two outings. Luis Saez should have him on or near the lead, and the outside post should give horse and rider plenty of options; #8 THE QUEENS JULES: Ran third for a $32,000 tag last time out and, on paper, takes a drop here for aggressive connections. However, I don’t think that was a particularly strong heat for the level, and given that he’s won just once in his last 10 starts, I think he may be overbet.

Triple Americano
Ravizzol
Shinjuku

#1 TRIPLE AMERICANO: Made a big move when third last time out and gets a tepid top pick in a wide-open maiden claiming event. It makes me nervous to pick a closer breaking from the rail, but he does have a bit more early speed than he showed that day and may be able to work out a trip; #6 RAVIZZOL: Faded in his debut downstate, but has worked well in upstate New York for a trainer whose charges tend to improve with experience. Saez haș been enticed to ride, and I’m expecting a move forward against a suspect field at a price; #7 SHINJUKU: Goes back to the dirt, cuts back in distance, and drops in for a tag, and any one of those moves could move him forward. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because I’m just not sure he wants to go quite this short (he hits me as a one-turn miler rather than a sprinter).

Her World
Wonder entry
Empress Tigress

#5 HER WORLD: Has a bunch of things going for her ahead of her unveiling. She’s trained by 2-year-old maestro Wesley Ward, is by red-hot young sire Caravaggio, boasts a world-class female family, and has been showing precocity in the mornings; #1 THE CLUB: Debuted with a good second-place finish where she showed some maturity and made up ground late. That experience edge should help her, and she’s bred to get better as she goes along; #4 EMPRESS TIGRESS: Debuts for Jonathan Thomas and could be live at a nice number. She hammered for $410,000 at auction earlier this year, and her dam is kin to turf stakes winners Stays in Vegas and Miss Technicality.

Identifier (MTO)
Abiding Star
Hieroglyphics

#1 ABIDING STAR: Is far, far better than he showed last time out, when he dueled through suicidal fractions and had nothing left late. He should not need to go nearly as fast early on here, and if he gets comfortable, I think he’ll be tough to run down; #3 HIEROGLYPHICS: Has won three of six starts over this turf course and four of his last six overall. He goes first off the claim for Dominick Schettino here and has back races that would make him a real handful; #9 TROUBLING MOON: Takes a drop in for a claiming tag, and that may be what he needs to wake up. He’s winless since late-2019, but strong turf rider Jose Lezcano rides and he should be moving in the right direction late.

Brown entry
Regal Retort
Anna’s Fast

BROWN ENTRY: Both #1 SECONDARY MARKET and #1A MOTIVATED SELLER can win this race. They have graded stakes experience and possess every right to move forward from age three to age four. However, while I think their collective talent and strength in numbers is enough to put them on top, I’d urge you to demand more value than you’re likely to get; #6 REGAL RETORT: Did everything but win a classy optional claimer at Churchill last month, and among the runners she beat was Reagan’s Edge, who was entered in Wednesday’s Grade 2 Honorable Miss. She seems like she’s going the right way and could sit an ideal stalking trip here; #9 ANNA’S FAST: Has won two in a row and five of 11 lifetime, with three of the misfires coming against stakes foes. Rob Atras saw fit to claim her last time, and he’s hitting at a robust 32% clip with new acquisitions.

Foolish Ghost
My Boy Tate
Wudda U Think Now

#7 FOOLISH GHOST: Has one way of going and could lead the John Morrissey field from gate to wire. His last-out win over open company at Monmouth was sharp, and the presence of Joel Rosario is noteworthy, as he likely had a few options in the Thursday feature; #3 MY BOY TATE: Ran third in this race last year and has not missed the board in four local starts. His last race at Parx is a throw-out given the wide trip and the very wet track, and his winning efforts two and three back came at this level; #5 WUDDA U THINK NOW: Ran fourth in a loaded allowance race earlier in the meet and may well see this race as a class drop. The horses he’s chased in his last two efforts are stakes-quality runners, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to climb aboard.

R10

Gabby Squared
Wicked Happy
Hard Won

#8 GABBY SQUARED: Was left with too much to do last time out and could only manage a rally to third. The two-back race, though, has turned out to be a key one, as she chased a number of solid horses. Her two-turn efforts are some of the best of her career, and I think she’ll be formidable; #4 WICKED HAPPY: Has had plenty of chances, which is usually a red flag, but she makes her first start off the claim for a barn that connects with 20% of similar stock. Her last several efforts have been fine, and maybe the new connections will move her forward; #6 HARD WON: Found her form last fall when she was competitive in multiple tries at this level. She hasn’t run since October, and maybe she needs a race, but her best effort is certainly good enough for a piece of this.