bankroll | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/23/20)

Posted on August 21, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $691.50

The Grade 1 Diana may not have come up big on field size, but it came up huge on talent. Chad Brown trainees Rushing Fall and Sistercharlie are a combined 20-for-29 lifetime, while Mean Mary has won three graded stakes races in a row and Starship Jubilee is 18-for-36 with $1.6 million in career earnings.

As handicappers, we tend to whine and complain when things aren’t perfect (to be fair, that happens a lot). However, to do that with any credibility in situations that matter, we need to stop and realize when things are good. Yes, six-horse fields are not ideal, but on the other hand, what top-flight horses from this division are missing?

The Sunday feature is a legitimate Grade 1 race with several Breeders’ Cup-caliber horses. I’m really excited to see these older turf distaffers go postward.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five was cancelled when multiple undercard races came off the turf (remember, all bets for turf races assume they stay there). Happy Hill Lil, meanwhile, was a closer on a day where you wanted your horse to be on or near the lead. I dropped $10.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll lean on the Grand Slam, since I like #5 SISTERCHARLIE enough to single her in the Diana. My $1 ticket starts in the fifth race and reads as follows: 4,5,7 with 1,2,5 with 1,3 with 5. I’ll also key Sistercharlie in a $10 late double starting in the eighth that singles #3 ALLIED INVASION in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: No Salt, Race 4
Longshot: High Command, Race 5

Uptown Flirt
Black Sand
Simply the Best

#5 UPTOWN FLIRT: Is the lone runner in here with experience going two turns, and she ran just fine in that race. She was third that day, and the runner-up from that event came back to just miss behind a promising Chad Brown trainee a few days ago; #6 BLACK SAND: Is one of many regally-bred Chad Brown runners to debut going long on turf this meet. She certainly could win this, but she comes in off of just three works in the past month, and that means she might need a race; #2 SIMPLY THE BEST: Fetched $175,000 at auction earlier this year and has every right to be a runner. She’s by fast-rising sire Constitution and is a half-sister to a horse named Guns Loaded, who won a Grade 3 on the grass.

Scoring
Wicksters Dream
Mission Wrapitup

#7 SCORING: Likely needed his last race, which doubled as his first outing since August. He drops back in against claimers of his own age group in this race, and the outside post combined with his tactical speed could give jockey David Cohen plenty of options; #3 WICKSTERS DREAM: Has won two in a row and thumped a weaker group last month at this route. He goes from one astute barn to another, and this is a horse that may be figuring things out on his way up the ladder; #4 MISSION WRAPITUP: Runs for a tag for the first time after fading to fourth against state-bred allowance foes going slightly longer. He’s run well in several state-bred stakes races and is dropped in for the tag by aggressive connections who do this often here.

Fifth Risk
American West
Jade Empress

#5 FIFTH RISK: Comes in off a pair of head-turning works for the legendary Pletcher/Velazquez tag team. She’s by promising young sire Outwork, and if the strong gate drills are any indication, she’s got all the talent it takes to win at first asking; #3 AMERICAN WEST: Hammered for $925,000 last year at Keeneland and is bred to be special. She’s by Curlin and out of Grade 3 winner Jacaranda, who herself is a half-sister to Constitution. The hesitation comes because she initially shipped north to Monmouth, which is where Chad Brown’s second-stringers usually go; #6 JADE EMPRESS: Earned a bullet for her most recent work on August 13th, and she’s got enough solid drills to suggest that wasn’t a fluke. Bill Mott’s runners often need a race or two to get going, and she’s bred to go a bit longer than this route, but if she’s ready, she’s got every right to run well.

No Salt
False Alarm
Supply Sider

#2 NO SALT: Will likely be a very heavy favorite, and for good reason. He ran a good second in his first start for a tag earlier this month, and this doesn’t seem like nearly as strong a group as the one he faced that day; #7 FALSE ALARM: Was very headstrong in the same race my top pick exits, so I’m willing to draw a line through that effort. His two-back race at Belmont was pretty solid, and another run like that likely gets him a big piece of this; #4 SUPPLY SIDER: Took a while to get going last time out but did enough to salvage fourth in his first start around two turns. With only two prior efforts to this point, maybe he’s got more room to improve.

Cold Hard Cash
High Command
Six Percent

#7 COLD HARD CASH: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the two-back effort, one that preceded a layoff of longer than six months. He broke his maiden last time out and tries two turns for the first time here. He’s got plenty of bottom-side distance pedigree, so I think he’ll embrace the added ground; #4 HIGH COMMAND: Hasn’t run in a while and didn’t show much in four outings at Aqueduct, but the return to two turns should be music to his ears. He won four times last fall at Finger Lakes going a similar route, and all of his races at Aqueduct were run at one-turn configurations; #5 SIX PERCENT: Hasn’t won in more than a year but ran an OK third in his first time going two turns last month. This is his third start off of a long layoff, and he could be coming to hand for trainer Jimmy Jerkens.

Madam Deputy (MTO)
Towering Gaze
Silent Empress

#1 TOWERING GAZE: Drops into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time after three OK efforts against state-bred maiden special weight foes. It seems like she’s found a soft group for the level, and this barn has been picking up steam over the past week; #5 SILENT EMPRESS: May not have had the best trip in her debut, when she was boxed in most of the stretch run. I don’t know how much that trouble really cost her, but she’s certainly eligible to improve and Rosario sees fit to ride back; #2 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH: Just missed against similar last time out and figures to once again do her best running late. Based on figures, she’s a contender, but she’s had plenty of chances and may not get as much early pace as she wants.

Free Enterprise
Big Engine
Pete’s Play Call

#3 FREE ENTERPRISE: Gets one more shot from me after possibly bouncing a bit last time out. He was fifth against a pretty strong group for that level, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. Improvement third off the bench wouldn’t be a shock; #1 BIG ENGINE: Always seems to fire and may have run a career-best race last time out. This is another step up in class out of the state-bred ranks, but it’s tough to say he doesn’t deserve a shot against these given his recent form; #6 PETE’S PLAY CALL: Responded to the drop in class with a win last time out, and his new connections step him back up the ladder here. He’s 3-for-3 at Saratoga, and his tactical speed should ensure jockey Luis Saez will be able to work out a favorable trip.

Sistercharlie
Starship Jubilee
Rushing Fall

#5 SISTERCHARLIE: Likely needed her return to the races in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, where she was third in a race that was likely shorter than she wants to go. Between the added distance, improved readiness, and the pace scenario, she looms large in her attempt at a third straight win in the Grade 1 Diana; #4 STARSHIP JUBILEE: Ran her win streak to four in a row in the Ballston Spa and has done lots right over the past few seasons. Her recent string of victories includes two at today’s distance, and she may be in career-best form; #3 RUSHING FALL: Has assembled a resume that could get her in the Hall of Fame someday. She’s 10-for-13 lifetime, with Grade 1 wins in four straight seasons, but this may be a bit longer than she wants to go and she may have company up front in the form of #6 MEAN MARY.

Allied Invasion
Nero’s Fiddle
Aintitfunkynow

#3 ALLIED INVASION: Ran reasonably well when third in his debut earlier this month. Pay attention to how No Salt, that day’s runner-up, performs in the fourth. A strong performance by him may mean good things for this one; #5 NERO’S FIDDLE: Has run fourth twice against similar foes and gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez. Blinkers come on as well, and I think he may show significantly more early zip than he has in the past; #6 AINTITFUNKYNOW: Didn’t do much running here last month in his first try at this level. His two and three-back efforts at Belmont, though, would make him a major player if he can channel that form; the question is, is he the type of horse that’s better around one turn?

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/22/20)

Posted on August 20, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $701.50

An excellent piece written by Ray Paulick and Natalie Voss in The Paulick Report implicated trainer Wayne Potts as being in cahoots with Marcus Vitali. According to this article, Potts has been acting as a “paper trainer” for Vitali, whose rap sheet is as long as the newspaper this piece is printed in.

Potts has been barred from running at certain tracks, including Laurel Park, Charles Town, Delaware Park, and Parx. However, the New York Racing Association allowed him to run a horse on Friday’s program. Naturally, that entrant, Our Destiny, won the opener at odds of 9-1.

Optics matter in this sport, perhaps now more than ever. This is a bad look, and is one of many reasons we need some sense of uniformity among circuits around the country. Bad apples need to be thrown out entirely, and those who associate with those bad apples need to be made aware of the consequences of their actions.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Man Flintstone never made the lead and was wrapped up late while well out of it. I dropped $25.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll primarily focus on the early Pick Five. My 50-cent ticket starts in the opener and reads thusly: 1,3 with 2,4 with 5,6 with 1,6 with 3,7,9. I’ll also put a $10 win bet on my longshot of the day, #8 HAPPY HILL LIL in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sifting Sands, Race 5
Longshot: Happy Hill Lil, Race 6

After Five
Foliage
My Sea Cottage

#3 AFTER FIVE: Has several very strong works leading up to his unveiling for world-class 2-year-old conditioner Wesley Ward. He’s by strong turf sire The Factor, and looms large as a very logical favorite in the Saturday opener; #1 FOLIAGE: Is bred up and down to be a runner. He’s by Speightstown and out of a mare by Galileo, and the most recent workout on August 13th was a head-turning half-mile drill; #7 MY SEA COTTAGE: Didn’t do much running in his debut downstate, but he’s bred up and down for turf and should improve on what’s likely his desired surface. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Mark Casse.

Airtouch
Macho Jack
Kilmarknock

#4 AIRTOUCH: Is a puzzling case in his return to the races off a long layoff. Given the multiple breaks, it’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, and this is a big drop, but it’s also far from the strongest $25,000 claimer NYRA will card this summer; #2 MACHO JACK: Took a step forward when breaking his maiden off the bench earlier this month. This is his first outing against winners, but there’s a chance he’s starting to figure things out and, as mentioned, this isn’t a salty spot; #3 KILMARKNOCK: Put forth a career-best effort when topping state-bred maiden claimers a few weeks ago. This is a step up in class, but the barn has done well this meet and he could benefit from a fast pace.

Blindwillie McTell (MTO)
French Reef
Cryogenic

#5 FRENCH REEF: Ran a very big race at this route last month to break his maiden. He bucked a trend of front-runners not finishing well by romping that day and earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Any improvement from that race would make him very, very tough; #6 CRYOGENIC: Just missed at this level earlier in the meet and faces several foes he topped that day in this event. He was a bit closer to the pace than usual in that race, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him rate behind a speed duel here; #1 FAST GETAWAY: Did all the dirty work in the race my second selection exits, but was third beaten a head. The inside draw is a plus given his gate speed, but I doubt he’ll be alone on the front end going into the turn.

Heavy Roller
Thebigfundamental
Super Dude

#6 HEAVY ROLLER: Stretches back out to two turns, drops in class, and lands in a race with plenty of early zip on paper. That seems like exactly the scenario this closer wants, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #1 THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL: Is another dropper, and likely needed his return race off a long layoff earlier in the meet. His best efforts have come going long; the question is, is he past his prime as a 7-year-old?; #3 SUPER DUDE: Faded against better horses earlier this summer and is yet another taking a big drop down the class ladder. Based on numbers, he fits, but he’s won just once in the last 10 months and finished behind my top pick earlier this year at Churchill Downs.

Sifting Sands
Mo Mischief (MTO)
Snow’s Island

#3 SIFTING SANDS: Has a world-class turf pedigree, as evidenced by his sky-high 407 turf Tomlinson rating. Seeing turf numbers greater than 400 is very rare, and trainer Chad Brown unveiled a similar horse, Public Sector, with great success last weekend; #7 SNOW’S ISLAND: Is one of two first-time starters trained by Graham Motion, and they both appear well-meant. He’s out of Grade 2 winner Tuttipaesi and has been working consistently ahead of his debut; #9 EXCURSION: Hammered for $325,000 at Keeneland last year and is bred to be any kind. He’s a half-brother to Preakness winner Oxbow, and dam Tizamazing is herself a full sister to both two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and multiple graded stakes winner Budroyale.

Happy Hill Lil
Love Me Tomorrow
Shenandoah River

#8 HAPPY HILL LIL: Looks far better if you toss her last-out clunker. She’s worked twice since being eased out of that race, and her two and three-back efforts both indicate she’ll come running late at a big price; #5 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Got what seemed like a perfect setup against similar company last time out but could only manage to hang on for third. She looks like the controlling speed, and she’ll be a pretty short price, but the “fade” pattern she’s established is a big red flag; #7 SHENANDOAH RIVER: Debuts for Kelly Breen and may not have to be much to pick up a check at first asking. Her recent workouts look pretty sharp, and this barn can get horses ready to run right away.

Lonesome Fugitive
Maker entry
Kingmeister

#7 LONESOME FUGITIVE: Ran second in a weird race last month that saw a run-off leader set unsustainable fractions. He didn’t run badly in defeat that day and looms large assuming more unconventional events don’t transpire; MAKER ENTRY: I prefer #1 TURN OF EVENTS, who responded to a drop in class with a win last time out. This is a jump back up the ladder, but he’s got plenty of early speed and the rail draw could allow him to make the lead out of the gate; #8 KINGMEISTER: Was third in the race my top pick exits, and that was his first start in six months. Again, the race shape likely won’t repeat itself here, but there’s plenty to like second off the bench for Shug McGaughey.

Winston’s Chance
Repole entry
Growth Engine

#5 WINSTON’S CHANCE: Has never missed the board in four starts at Saratoga. He’s won here twice and was a very good second in a tough race for the level last time out. He could get first run on tiring pace-setters turning for home, and he may be a bit of a price; REPOLE ENTRY: #1 BLEWITT was third behind next-out graded stakes winner Cross Border in the Lubash on turf earlier in the meet. He has speed but doesn’t need the lead to run well, and that’s a good thing given the abundance of early speed in this field; #2 GROWTH ENGINE: Cruised home at Monmouth in her first start since last July and steps up in class here. He could certainly step forward, but Monmouth is usually where Chad Brown keeps his second-stringers and he’ll likely be a short price.

Uni
Raging Bull
Halladay

#6 UNI: Almost certainly needed her return race in the Grade 1 Just A Game downstate. She rated well behind a slow early pace and settled for third that day, but I think she’ll be more fully-cranked here. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner looks like the one to hold off late in the Grade 1 Fourstardave; #1 RAGING BULL: Won the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile two back at Santa Anita and was a close-up third in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland last time out. He was second in this race a season ago and could certainly win on his best day; #5 HALLADAY: Inexplicably conceded the early lead in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch last time out, which made no sense considering his impressive front-running scores at Gulfstream two and three back. He’ll need to outbreak #4 GOT STORMY to make the lead, but he’ll be dangerous if he’s allowed to sit his preferred trip.

R10

Rakeez
Scotty Brown
Battalion

#9 RAKEEZ: Is a reluctant top pick in a tricky Saturday finale. He ran well to break his maiden last time out, but that was in January and he takes a curious drop in for a tag after weeks of works at Monmouth. Still, this isn’t a strong race for the level, and a repeat of his last-out effort likely beats these; #6 SCOTTY BROWN: Seems like the main speed in here and put it all together off a long break last time out at Belmont. That was his first start in more than a year, and he’s run well going two turns on turf in the past; #5 BATTALION: Was second behind a next-out winner early in the meet and drops into the claiming ranks for Bill Mott. He won his only other start against claimers and may not need to be so far back early on in this spot.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/21/20)

Posted on August 19, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $726.50

My full-time job is with Life Chiropractic College West in the Bay Area, and we’re coming up on the busiest weekend of the year. Our annual conference, the WAVE, kicks off Friday afternoon, and we’re going online for the first time. As an aside, if any members of the WAVE team happen to be reading this, you’re all awesome and have moved mountains these past few months!

What does this mean for this section? Well, it means I may or may not have time to send fully-updated recaps of the prior day’s action, and the same applies to the total at the top of this section. I refuse to be the guy who holds up print production of The Pink Sheet for any reason, and that scenario is in play here. In the event this happens, I’ll have stuff up on AndrewChampagne.com as quickly as I can once the conference ends for the day, and I’ll put that information on Twitter (@AndrewChampagne) as well.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This was brutal. I had two horses in a three-horse photo in the eighth race, but the one I didn’t have was the winner (and a chalk I was trying to beat to boot). After scratches, I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: The fifth race is fascinating, and I can’t wait to bet #9 MY MAN FLINTSTONE, who hits me as the lone speed in that event. I’ll put $10 to win and place on him, and I’ll also single him in a cold $5 double ending with #6 PRINCESA CAROLINE in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Golden Pal, Race 3
Longshot: My Man Flintstone, Race 5

Silver Token
Striking Causeway
Advanced Strategy

#7 SILVER TOKEN: Just missed last time and has been running well since going to the Horacio DePaz barn. While the outfit is just 1-for-10 at the meet as of this writing, it’s sent out six runners-up, so the horses are certainly prepared; #4 STRIKING CAUSEWAY: Ran too badly to be true last time out at Belmont and is another going out for a barn light on numbers, but heavy on in-the-money finishes. A repeat of his two-back effort, when he was third beaten a neck against similar, would put him right there; #6 ADVANCED STRATEGY: Was fourth beaten a length in his return to the races earlier this summer. Improvement could come at second asking, but I think there’s a chance he wants more distance, and at his likely short price, I can’t endorse him on top.

The Angry Man
Ashiham
Obsessed

#5 THE ANGRY MAN: Has run second on three straight occasions and comes back to dirt for this event. His last two starts have shown he can get two turns (albeit on turf), and his last dirt effort saw him chase a very promising horse named Happy Saver; #2 ASHIHAM: Was a one-paced third last time out at this route and runs like a horse who wants as much distance as he can get. He was even-money last time out, but did run into a decent winner in First Line, who was briefly pointed to the Grade 1 Travers; #3 OBSESSED: Stretches out to two turns second off a long layoff for Todd Pletcher. There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, he may have needed the last-out effort, and if you want a price on Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., you may get one here.

Golden Pal
Fauci
Sky’s Not Falling

#6 GOLDEN PAL: Did everything but win at Royal Ascot in June when a hard-luck second in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. He’s bred to be very sharp, being by Uncle Mo and out of freakish turf sprinter Lady Shipman, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #5 FAUCI: Took to the turf last time out at Keeneland when breaking his maiden over yielding going. He’s shown some early zip in both of his prior starts and should be prominent from the first jump; #4 SKY’S NOT FALLING: Tries the lawn after finishing third in a minor stakes race at Colonial Downs last month. He comes in after a bullet work on a synthetic surface, and there is some turf in his pedigree.

Citizen K
Eagle Orb
Sonic Speed

#8 CITIZEN K: Is a reluctant top pick for me in a race with seven first-time starters, most going out for barns whose debuting runners aren’t fully-cranked. This one, however, is a half to La Fuerza, who won multiple stakes races as a 2-year-old, and the recent works are promising; #4 EAGLE ORB: Sold for $95,000 at auction last year and exits a strong half-mile drill earlier this month. He’s a half-brother to five winners, but I think he may be at his best going a bit longer; #2 SONIC SPEED: Is by strong juvenile sire Maclean’s Music and has a few solid gate works for trainer John Kimmel. Kimmel’s first-out numbers aren’t great, but this isn’t the strongest spot and I wouldn’t be surprised if he grabbed a piece of it.

My Man Flintstone
Unprecedented
More Like It

#9 MY MAN FLINTSTONE: Certainly looks like the main speed here as he comes back to the turf. He was eased in his lone prior turf start, but he’s run very well on synthetic surfaces and is bred to enjoy the lawn; #5 UNPRECEDENTED: Was a close-up fourth against similar last time out and earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. He’s got enough speed to be fairly close early on beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #6 MORE LIKE IT: Broke through by getting his nose down last time out and tries winners for the first time. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back, and this barn has hit at a 21% clip at the meet. Runner-up Silver Token runs in the opener, and if that one does well, it could be a good sign.

Make Or Break (MTO)
Princesa Caroline
Passion Factor

#6 PRINCESA CAROLINE: Returns off the bench for her 3-year-old debut. She was third as an odds-on favorite in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar in November, and the two-back work indicates she’s sitting on a big effort in her 2020 bow; #9 PASSION FACTOR: Found the Grade 2 Appalachian a bit too tough and should appreciate the drop into the allowance ranks. She may also be a bit sharper in her second start off the bench; #1 LASHARA: Is yet another coming out of a stakes race, as she faded to seventh in the Grade 2 Lake Placid. Both of her races before that were strong, and she may be the one the front-runners have to worry about in the lane.

Jump for Joy
Flat Awesome Jenny
Lady by Choice

#3 JUMP FOR JOY: Does her best running over this surface and beat similar foes last time out earlier in the meet. She’s got tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which should give Jose Ortiz plenty of options; #5 FLAT AWESOME JENNY: Comes back to the right level after her connections took a shot in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher at Monmouth. Her two-back win at Delaware was good, and she’s run plenty of strong races going one turn in the recent past; #2 LADY BY CHOICE: Will make her third start of the meet here and will have every chance to come rolling late at a price. She didn’t have the best of trips last time out and could step forward with a cleaner journey.

Bears Mafia (MTO)
Freewheeler
Veterans Beach

#4 FREEWHEELER: Makes his return to the races and looms large against allowance company. He chased the eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner when second in the Grade 3 Futurity, and it also helps that he won at this route in his debut; #1 VETERANS BEACH: Makes his first start in a year but has prior races that would make him competitive. He was second in his last outing following a long break back in May of 2019, and his lone win came here two summers ago; #9 CRACK SHOT: Certainly seems like the one to catch and will have to go early to clear the field from his outside post. He’ll almost certainly be leading into the stretch; the question is, will he have the stamina necessary to hold on?

Voice of Spring (MTO)
Kept Waiting
Gaelic Gold

#7 KEPT WAITING: Did all the dirty work last time out and was beaten a neck by a deep closer, all during a time when front-runners were not winning on turf. This race seems light on early zip, and recent races have shown speed can hold on the grass; #6 GAELIC GOLD: Will likely be favored second off the bench for Christophe Clement, and the reasoning for that makes sense. She rallied to be third behind my top selection last time out, and Rosario sees fit to ride back; #8 KILKEA: Was beaten less than a length at Belmont back in June and has since moved to the Mark Hennig barn. This is her first time going two turns on the lawn, and her pedigree says that’s what she’ll want to do.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/20/20)

Posted on August 18, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $746.50

As those who follow me already know, I lost my grandmother to COVID-19 earlier this year. It was brutal and made worse by the fact I couldn’t travel east from California to attend anything resembling a conventional funeral.

When she passed away, I made the decision to name a horse in her honor on Off And Pacing, a harness racing game you can play on your phone (my stable name is 128 Racing, named for my winning total back in 2017 when I won the all-media handicapping title). This past Tuesday, the mare I named Nana Carolyn won one of the richest races the game offers.

When I saw the video of this race, I teared up. Judge me for it if you want to, but that was an out-of-body experience I’ve never had before and will likely never have again. As an aside/cheap plug, if you play the game, make sure you send plenty of mares each season to flagship sire King Elliot, a three-time trophy winner named after my cat (and Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello’s favorite horse).

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Tobys Heart did indeed win the Bolton Landing, but my underneath horses ran third and fourth. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late double beginning in the eighth, as #7 LEAD GUITAR hits me as a vulnerable favorite. I’m playing $5 doubles starting with #2 FETCHING and #5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL and ending with #1 DARK MONEY, #2 WE SHOULD TALK, and #7 JUST RIGHT in the nightcap.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Leaveuwithasmile, Race 5
Longshot: No More Miracles, Race 6

Moscato
Optimus Prime
Pravalaguna

#5 MOSCATO: Won the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick earlier in the meet and has emerged as one of the top steeplechasers in the country. He’ll look to move to 3-for-3 on the year in this spot, and he should be rolling late; #6 OPTIMUS PRIME: Chased Moscato home in the Smithwick, which doubled as his first run in a year. He has every reason to step forward here, and he won this race at this route two years ago; #2 PRAVALAGUNA: Was eased in the Smithwick but was sent off at single-digit odds that day. Her two-back romp at Fair Hill was quite good, and I think she has every chance to grab a piece of it here at a big price.

Thankful
Simply Sweet
Heavenly Sis

#6 THANKFUL: Stepped forward a bit when second in her dirt debut last time out. She comes in off of a recent bullet workout and is bred to want every bit of this two-turn route of ground; #1 SIMPLY SWEET: Was a distant fourth in her unveiling downstate but should improve at second asking for trainer Bill Mott. She’s another with a solid local work tab, and two turns may be up her street, too; #4 HEAVENLY SIS: Has run second three times since coming off the bench a few months ago. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and she does possess the highest Beyer Speed Figure in this entire field.

Awesome Alana
Out of Trouble
Goodbye Brockley

#5 AWESOME ALANA: Goes back to the turf in her first start for Linda Rice. She’s been off since March but seems to have found a very soft landing spot for this level, and her lone prior start on the grass was a solid third against a better group at this route a season ago; #1 OUT OF TROUBLE: Has won just once since the start of last year but takes a significant drop in class. It’s possible she’s past her peak, but anything close to her 2019 form would give her a big shot; #6 GOODBYE BROCKLEY: Has some back races that would make her competitive here, although you have to dig a bit to find them. She may have needed her last-out effort off a brief freshening, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride.

Threepointninenine
Disciplinarian
Boom Boom Kaboom

#8 THREEPOINTNINENINE: Is one of many exiting a common race on July 30, which came at this level and route. He was fifth that day, but I think he’ll get a better setup here. He hits me as the lone early speed, and Saez rides back second off the bench for Tom Morley; #7 DISCIPLINARIAN: Has run third against similar goes in both starts since a brief layoff. He’s the leading finisher from the July 30 event running here, and the David Donk barn caught fire over the weekend; #6 BOOM BOOM KABOOM: Was favored in that common race and may have bounced a bit off of a decent effort two back against special weight foes. Maybe he’s better at Belmont, but a return to the two-back form isn’t inconceivable for an outfit due to get rolling at this stand.

Leaveuwithasmile
Sirenic
Customerexperience

#6 LEAVEUWITHASMILE: Made her local debut a winning one when wiring similar company during the first week of the meet. She was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, whose win percentage with new acquisitions is an insane 50% (and no, that’s not a misprint); #5 SIRENIC: Has the “stranger danger” factor in her favor as she ships in following a win over older foes at Ellis Park. She’s got some versatility and has been working well at Churchill Downs ahead of this trip; #1 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE: Was probably left with too much to do last time when third behind my top pick after sitting well off the pace. Rudy Rodriguez claimed her after the last-out performance, and she would stand to benefit from some action up front early on.

Red Mule
Jack of Clubs
No More Miracles

#3 RED MULE: Makes his second start off the bench and comes back to his preferred surface after being protected last time out at Laurel. He ran well in New York last year before breaking his maiden at Gulfstream, and I like that he’s seemed to learn how to rate in his last several outings; #8 JACK OF CLUBS: Was protected late last time out after fading badly in his first start against winners. This is a softer spot, to be sure, and the class relief comes in his first start for the Mike Miceli barn, which hits at a high rate with both new acquisitions and turf sprinters; #7 NO MORE MIRACLES: Runs second off the layoff for David Donk and comes back to the grass. He’ll be a price after fading for lower tags on dirt a few times, but his turf races from last year match up pretty well with this bunch.

Stan the Man
T Loves a Fight
My Boy Tate

#2 STAN THE MAN: Drops in after running a strong second in the Grade 2 True North at Belmont behind Firenze Fire. He’s probably better going a bit longer than this six-furlong distance, but he sure seems like the main speed and should appreciate the class relief in the ungraded Tale of the Cat; #1 T LOVES A FIGHT: Hasn’t won since October but loves Saratoga and was recently second in the John Morrissey. I’m not crazy about the rail draw, but this barn has been sending out well-meant horses all summer; #4 MY BOY TATE: Was third in the Morrissey and may need a wet track for his best form to come out. However, he’s got four top-two finishes in five starts at this distance and was just a half-length behind my second selection last time out.

Speightstown Gal
Fetching
Lead Guitar

#5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL: Found herself on the lead last time out, and that may not be her desired trip. Her win two back at Belmont was very good, and I think she’ll sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Javier Castellano here; #2 FETCHING: Ran into a few strong horses in the Mount Vernon last time out after a nice win two back. This barn has been ice-cold at the meet, but this filly has won over this turf course before and seems well-meant on the cutback; #7 LEAD GUITAR: Comes back to New York for an astute barn and may be favored. However, I’m going to try to beat her. She seems considerably slower this year than she was as a 3-year-old, and I can’t endorse her at or near her 6/5 morning line price.

Dark Money
We Should Talk
Just Right

#1 DARK MONEY: Was inexplicably rated off the pace last time out, and that’s not this horse’s game. He wants to be on or near the lead, and given the rider switch, the rail draw, and a recent bullet work, I think his desired trip is likely in the Thursday finale; #2 WE SHOULD TALK: Has won three in a row and has changed hands via the claim box after each victory. This is a bit of a step up, but it’s tough to argue he doesn’t deserve a shot against these and Englehart did step him up effectively two back at Aqueduct; #7 JUST RIGHT: Was beaten a half-length in his first start since August last time out. I think he needed that race off the long break, so the last-out hang in the stretch doesn’t bother me much. A step forward would put him right there.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/19/20)

Posted on August 17, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $776.50

There’s no use beating around the bush, so I’ll come out and say it: Fields are short the next few programs at Saratoga. It’s easy to play the blame game, but there are a few things to keep in mind.

Most importantly, 2-year-olds are no longer allowed to run with Lasix in New York. I’ll leave the discussion about the effects of Lasix to the professionals, but it’s apparent that this a real deterrent for some barns, ones that have opted to run their juveniles in jurisdictions that allow them to receive the medication. The other factor to keep in mind, of course, is the COVID-19 pandemic. Many trainers had to stop on horses for weeks at a time, and it’s tough to get them ready to run after such a long time off the track.

It’s certainly unfortunate. Races at Saratoga drawing fields of five or six is a “should not occur” in most years. Having said that, I feel fortunate we have a Saratoga meet at all. NYRA’s doing the best it can in a tough situation, and while I’ve been quick to take them to task on some things, doing so here doesn’t seem smart.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: While my Pick Five got blasted to smithereens in the first leg, I had some hope with nice double will-pays after Antoinette’s gutty score in the Saratoga Oaks. Unfortunately, those failed to come to fruition. I dropped $28 after scratches.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to squeeze some value out of likely favorite #6 TOBYS HEART in the eighth race (the featured Bolton Landing Stakes). I’ll play her on top in $10 exactas and $5 trifectas that use medium-range prices #8 AMANZI YIMPILO and #9 MISCHIEVOUS DREAM in the underneath spots.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Snap Decision, Race 1
Longshot: Little Red Button, Race 9

Snap Decision
Duc de Meran
Fast Car

#1 SNAP DECISION: Came flying late to record his sixth straight win earlier in the meet. He’ll once again carry top weight (a 165-pound impost), but he’s beaten several of these foes in the past and he may be even better with the added distance; #7 DUC DE MERAN: Makes his U.S. debut after spending the early part of his career in France. He finished third in a stakes race over fences back in February, and he could be live going to firmer turf and adding Lasix; #2 FAST CAR: Rolled home against much weaker company last month and gets a class test here. Mitchell sees fit to ride back, and the lightly-raced gelding could still be on the improve.

Siesta Kew
Ruby Stiletto
Jill’s a Hot Mess

#4 SIESTA KEW: Makes her debut for Mike Maker, whose barn has been firing on all cylinders over the past few weeks. She has several very strong gate works on her tab, and if that form carries over to the afternoon, she could be a handful; #3 RUBY STILETTO: Sold for $65,000 last October and is working well for Rudy Rodriguez. This barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, but she’s by strong first-out sire Maclean’s Music and has plenty of bottom-side pedigree, too; #5 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Is the only horse in this field to have run before, and she made a middle move earlier this meet before flattening out. Aggressive gate rider Kendrick Carmouche hops aboard, and a repeat of her two-back effort could put her right there.

Brown entry
Stunning Princess
Puma Punku

BROWN ENTRY: #1 INGRASSIA and #1A REINA DEL SOL are both regally-bred, and they both have big-time chances in a race light on numbers but heavy on potential. I’ll give a slight nod to the former simply because that’s where Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands; #5 STUNNING PRINCESS: Ran well to be second in her debut last month, especially since that was during a time where early speed was not holding on the turf course. She could conceivably move forward at second asking while sitting a similar trip; #4 PUMA PUNKU: Is by Kitten’s Joy and out of a mare named Gypsy’s Warning, who won top-tier races in both America and her native South Africa. She’s bred up and down to be very good, and my one hesitation is that she may need a start under her belt before she’s ready to win.

Majid
Curlin Grey
Hoffenheim

#1 MAJID: Gets my top selection in a race where I wish I didn’t have to make one. He’s earned that simply because of the likely race shape. I think he’s the only horse that will want to go early, and he did get pretty good a year ago when reeling off four straight wins; #6 CURLIN GREY: Hasn’t won in a while but was a good second behind a heavy favorite at this level and route a few weeks ago. He’s run into some sharp horses for the level this year, including Frost Or Frippery, and this may be the softest spot he’s seen since January; #2 HOFFENHEIM: Makes sense given the drop in class but is simply impossible for me to endorse on top. He hasn’t won in more than two years, flopped at 2-1 in his last start, and will likely be a very short price. Perhaps he wins, but I just can’t bet him.

Financial System
Kantarmaci entry
Golden Decision

#8 FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Has won two in a row and takes a curious drop in class when he seems to be in good form. These are aggressive connections that want the owner and trainer titles, though, so I’m not seeing it as a red flag; KANTARMACI ENTRY: I prefer #1A ZERO GRAVITY, who figures to come flying late in his first start for this barn. He’ll likely get plenty of pace to chase, and he ran well at this level two and three back at Churchill; #4 GOLDEN DECISION: Drops back in for a tag, cuts back in distance, and gets Joel Rosario for a high-percentage barn that doesn’t run many horses here. He’s another that does his best running late, so the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

Bossy Bride (MTO)
Rivendell
Bareeqa

#1 RIVENDELL: Won like a very good horse in her unveiling downstate. She came flying in the stretch despite very modest early fractions, her pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and runners from the Bill Mott barn tend to improve with experience; #5 BAREEQA: Has run several very good races over this turf course, enough to where I’m drawing a line through the last-out effort. That pace wasn’t that fast, and there should be more early zip signed on in this spot; #7 KITTEN BY THE SEA: Came back running off the bench in her first start for Todd Pletcher when she was third beaten a neck last month. She’s got some tactical speed, which could come in handy on the inner turf, and Jose Ortiz riding back is certainly a plus.

Golani Brigade
Quickflash
Big Thicket

#1 GOLANI BRIGADE: Ran well when breaking his maiden here last summer and makes his first start since then in this spot. The extensive Monmouth work tab is a concern, but he’s worked very well since coming to Saratoga and his best race would likely be too good for these; #5 QUICKFLASH: Hasn’t run a bad one in six starts, all of which have seen him finish third or better. He tries seven furlongs for the first time, but I don’t think that will be a big deal; #7 BIG THICKET: Was third against similar at this route earlier in the meet, but that was after a 12-day turnaround, which was probably too quick. He got a month between starts before this race, and I think he’ll have a fuller gas tank for this one.

Tobys Heart
Amanzi Yimpilo
Mischievous Dream

#6 TOBYS HEART: Put forth a jaw-dropping performance in her debut at Churchill Downs. She missed the break, rallied forward completely on her own, and won by nearly seven lengths while under wraps late. Anything close to that likely puts her in the winner’s circle; #8 AMANZI YIMPILO: Cruised home in her debut at Gulfstream Park and may well be the controlling speed in here. Wesley Ward can get 2-year-old turf sprinters ready to run as well as anyone, and Irad lands here when he likely had a few options; #9 MISCHIEVOUS DREAM: Rallied to top New York-breds in her unveiling at this route last month. That race didn’t come back particularly fast on figures, but she was professional and she’s bred to be a good one. Her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Presious Passion, and she could improve with experience.

Hey It’s Tati (MTO)
Sandra’s Mine
Little Red Button

#3 SANDRA’S MINE: Is probably in a “now or never” spot. She’s 0-for-12 lifetime but stretches back out to two turns in her third start off the layoff. She ran well a few times going long a season ago, and those efforts came against slightly better opposition; #10 LITTLE RED BUTTON: Stretches out to two turns and ran a sneaky-good race last time out. She was pretty wide most of the way, yet still rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. Her pedigree’s not bad, and I think she can outrun her odds in a big way; #13 MEMORIES ETERNAL: Merits a look if she draws in off the AE list. Her lone two-turn effort to date came last month, when she made a big move but settled for second at Laurel Park. She’ll be back in with state-breds if she gets in, and that could help her.