BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $804.50

Call me crazy, but after Saturday’s Grade 1 Alabama, I’m far more excited for the Kentucky Oaks than the Kentucky Derby. Swiss Skydiver, of course, put on a show, winning by daylight while under wraps late. Up next for her is a date with Acorn and Test winner Gamine, who will be stretching back out to two turns.

This is no slight to Tiz the Law, who may be preparing for a dazzling display of his own in the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in September (still feels weird to say that). However, give me Swiss Skydiver and Gamine looking one another in the eye with the lilies on the line, and I’ll be pretty darned happy.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I was alive to an OK Pick Four will-pay with Brazen in the fifth, but he stopped badly to finish well behind Fevola. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m intrigued by the late Pick Five, and I think room exists to hit it with a budget-friendly ticket. My 50-cent play starts in the sixth and reads as follows: 2,4,6 with 6 with 2,4,5,6,11 with 3,6 with 2,4. I’ll also play $2 late doubles keying my horses in the last two legs, as I think Bill Mott saddles a pair of live horses at overlaid odds in the Saratoga Oaks.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Skye Snow, Race 4
Longshot: Antoinette, Race 9

R1

Cantata
School of Thought
Stone Town

#3 CANTATA: Hammered for nearly one million dollars at Keeneland last year and is bred to be a very strong horse. She’s worked like one for Steve Asmussen, too, and the gate work over this surface in late-July jumps off the page; #1 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT: Has worked consistently for Chad Brown and may well go off favored in this spot. She’s bred to be very good, but the pedigree screams she’ll get better as she gets older, not necessarily that she’ll want to sprint; #4 STONE TOWN: Is the lone runner in here with any experience. She was an OK second here earlier in the meet, and while she’s hurt by that day’s winner disappointing in her next start, this one could step forward.

R2

Maker entry
Bold Gem
Klaravich entry

MAKER ENTRY: Either half could win. #1 CHOCOLATE BAR drops back in for a tag and a repeat of his two-back effort at Churchill would put him right there, while #1A LOKOYA ROAD makes his first start for Maker and gets some class relief after two starts against special weight foes; #10 BOLD GEM: Has had many chances, but his turf record looks much better if you toss the two-back effort at Gulfstream. Do that, and you have a runner that has been competitive many times at this level, one that shouldn’t be ignored at a price; KLARAVICH ENTRY: #2 COMPLEX SYSTEM drops in class for this one and may be favored, but I have my doubts. These are aggressive connections, sure, but the Monmouth works are a red flag, as that’s where Chad Brown tends to keep his second-stringers.

R3

Lady C
Pick Up the Fone
Our Lady of Loreto

#5 LADY C: Was a good second against slightly better earlier in the meet despite some trouble out of the gate. Unlike many others in here, she can win while rating off the pace, and that seems like a big asset in a race full of early speed; #2 PICK UP THE FONE: Has run well in both starts for Todd Pletcher following a trainer switch earlier this year. She has tactical speed, but her last-out effort showed she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #6 OUR LADY OF LORETO: Hits me as the speed of the speed and could benefit from a cushy outside draw. I don’t think she’ll be alone on the lead, but if any horse in this field can shake loose going into the turn, it’s probably this filly.

R4

Skye Snow
Make Or Break
Tradeable

#6 SKYE SNOW: Runs for a tag for the first time and should appreciate the significant drop in class. Her two-back maiden win at Gulfstream was strong, and she should be able to come rolling late beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #1 MAKE OR BREAK: Seemed to take to turf reasonably well when third against similar foes earlier in the meet. That was her first start since March, and improvement seems logical second off the bench; #5 TRADEABLE: Was second in the race my second selection exits. She can’t be ignored if you’re playing vertical exotics, but she hasn’t won since 2018 and has had enough chances at this level to where I can’t endorse her on top.

R5

Nakamura
Pillar Mountain
He’s No Lemon

#6 NAKAMURA: Came back running when third behind Zulu Alpha in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland. He won at this route a season ago and has shown he’s not quite as pace-dependent as several of his rivals in this spot; #1 PILLAR MOUNTAIN: Stretches out in distance second off the layoff and should improve with the added distance. His two North American wins have come at this distance, and one of them came at this route last July; #4 HE’S NO LEMON: May have bounced in the Elkhorn after running a close-up third in the Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill. That’s the only clunker he’s run since December of 2018, so it’s not hard for me to draw a line through that effort.

R6

Market Impact
Lost in Rome
Breithorn

#6 MARKET IMPACT: Hasn’t run in a year but is working well for Jorge Abreu ahead of his return. This is a big drop in class off the bench, and any sort of step forward from his lone start to date would make him a formidable foe; #2 LOST IN ROME: Hasn’t done much wrong to this point with four in-the-money finishes in five starts. New rider David Cohen will likely be hoping for a speed duel early, as this one figures to be running well late; #4 BREITHORN: Is another that would benefit from some action up front going into the turn. His race here last month was his first try at the level, and he did have an excuse, but that’s far from the only troubled trip he’s had to this point in his career.

R7

Binkster (MTO)
La Hara
Duress

#6 LA HARA: Likely needed his return to the races last month, but he still ran second and earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. A similar effort likely wallops this group, and if one materializes, tests against stakes company may be in his future; #9 DURESS: Has two wins and a second in three starts since being claimed by Tom Albertrani and goes second off the layoff here. Two turns is a question mark, but the presence of Smart Strike on the bottom of his pedigree may be a hint that such a journey won’t bother him; #8 LIFE ON TOP: Merits a look underneath at what will likely be a generous price. He cuts back to a mile after a one-paced effort going longer at Belmont, and he could have every chance to come running late for a piece of it.

R8

Fierce Lady
Bertranda
Big Q

#2 FIERCE LADY: Set a fast pace before settling for third money earlier this meet, and that was her first start in five months. That was also her first outing for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, and while this is a big field, she certainly seems like the speed of the speed and I think she’ll be a bit sharper; #6 BERTRANDA: Has hit the board in her last seven starts with two wins, including a last-out victory over several of foes in this spot last month. She could sit a strong stalking trip in this spot, and consistency is certainly not an issue for a mare that’s earned nearly $400,000 the hard way; #11 BIG Q: Has knocked heads with stakes foes since breaking her maiden here last summer, and while this race isn’t easy, there is some element of class relief here. John Velazquez rides back after piloting her to second-place finishes in two state-bred stakes races earlier this year.

R9

Antoinette
Ricetta
Speaktomeofsummer

#3 ANTOINETTE: Is a fun horse to root for and never seems to fire a bad shot. She returns to the grass after running third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on dirt, and her running style implies that the Saratoga Oaks distance will fit her like a glove; #6 RICETTA: Makes her first start on U.S. soil and gives trainer Bill Mott the second half of a powerful 1-2 punch. She was third in a Group 3 in just her third career start, and Javier Castellano takes the call; #1 SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER: Is 3-for-3 going two turns on turf and most recently rallied to win the Grade 2 Lake Placid. There’s stuff to like here, but I’m taking the stance that this race just wasn’t that strong and that she’ll be a bit overbet.

R10

Yankee Empire
Red Zinger
Big Boy Mo

#2 YANKEE EMPIRE: Seems to have taken a step forward in his last two starts, the most recent of which was a win earlier this summer. This is his first start against winners, but he’s run up against talented horses in the past and it sure looks like he’s never been better; #4 RED ZINGER: Hasn’t run since December but has never finished worse than third at Saratoga. He’s worked steadily for Jeremiah Englehart, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, he’s capable of putting forth an effort that can win; #9 BIG BOY MO: Comes back into the claiming ranks after fading to sixth in a starter allowance last month. His lone prior try at this level saw him run third at Belmont, and if the Belmont form comes north, he’s got a shot at a big price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $631

It can’t be easy living in the same apartment complex as a degenerate horseplayer. When Thin White Duke got nailed at the wire (by a solo Wise Owl winner, no less), my remote control went flying. When Mrs. Orb needed one more jump in the Union Avenue, it was my phone that was used as an outlet (thankfully, my couch provided a soft landing spot).

At some point, I fully expect a downstairs neighbor to come knocking on my door. If that happens, he or she will get a long, detailed summary of each bad beat at this Saratoga meet. I give it 45 seconds before I get a response akin to, “okay, I get it, I’ll go away.” Over-under bets on this are currently being accepted, and all Twitter followers will be updated promptly if and when this sequence of events plays out.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Mrs. Orb was a hard-luck second, and Favorite Impulse flattened out after making a bit of a move into the turn. After scratches, I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: #5 HURRICANE HILL has every right to improve off of a strong return to the races in the seventh. I’ll put $15 on him to win and single him in $4 doubles starting and ending in the seventh that use #1 EYE LUV LULU/#1A CLENCH in the sixth and #4 TALE OF THE UNION in the eighth. Finally, I’ll play a $2 cold Pick Three using those three betting interests.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 9
Longshot: Hurricane Hill, Race 7

R1

Ain’t None Lucky
Tetrahydro
Wishes and Dreams

#7 AIN’T NONE LUCKY: Drops way down in class in her first start for a tag, and does so returning to a track she ran well at twice a season ago. The outside draw should be a big help, and she should sit an ideal stalking trip; #4 TETRAHYDRO: Found two turns to be too long last time out at Keeneland. She returns to a one-turn route of ground, and a repeat of her two-back effort at Churchill against similar foes would give her a shot; #3 WISHES AND DREAMS: Ran an OK third in her first start over this surface last month. She’s shown an ability to pass horses late, and the presence of Joel Rosario is certainly noteworthy.

R2

Palomita (MTO)
Notorious R B G
Tiple

#6 NOTORIOUS R B G: Drops in to face allowance foes after finishing fourth in an overnight stakes race at Belmont in June. This certainly seems like a far weaker spot, and these connections have been running red-hot since the start of the meet; #5 TIPLE: Rallied to record her first win in a while last time out at Belmont. This is a tougher spot for her, but she won at this route a season ago and figures to be running well late; #3 STOP WAR: Is the other half of a powerful one-two punch for Christophe Clement, who also saddles my top selection. She was third behind a solid horse last time out and could be coming into peak form in her third start off the bench.

R3

Mosienko
Hetty G.
Persian Queen

#7 MOSIENKO: Was an easy winner against a weaker group last time out and was claimed out of that race by a barn hitting its stride at the meet. Toss the turf races, and you’re left with a filly that’s won two of three dirt starts; #3 HETTY G.: Was a solid second at this level last time out, and she earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure with that effort. She figures to sit a stalking trip in here, and she’ll be tough if the extra furlong proves to be to her liking; #1 PERSIAN QUEEN: Didn’t run badly when fourth against better company earlier in the meet at a price. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a closer, but she was third at this distance two starts back and would benefit from a pace meltdown.

R4

Cafe Americano
Chaleur
Secret Message

#1 CAFE AMERICANO: Ran in several tough spots a season ago before going to the sidelines following a fourth-place finish in a Grade 1 at Keeneland. She’s been training well and is strictly the one to beat if she’s ready to go; #6 CHALEUR: Won a photo finish downstate and steps up into stakes company. She doesn’t need to improve much on figures in order to run well, and with the lack of early speed on paper, she could lead them a long way; #7 SECRET MESSAGE: Won the Grade 3 Mint Julep two back before finding Grade 1 foes too tough at Keeneland. She was fourth in the Grade 1 Diana here last year and has the class to win this, but she may need more pace than she’s in line to get.

R5

Ahead of Plan
Its a Wrap
Colloquist

#7 AHEAD OF PLAN: Runs for a tag for the first time in this spot and does so while returning to turf. He had a legitimate excuse in his lone prior turf start, when a terrible break compromised his chances here last summer; #5 ITS A WRAP: May have bounced in his second start off of a layoff, when he came up flat at this route last month. Like my top pick, he’s dropping in class, and perhaps the shallower waters are what he needs; #2 COLLOQUIST: Does have some back form sprinting on turf, though you have to dig a bit to find it. He was fifth behind a strong turf sprinter named Jack and Noah in his debut, and he did show a bit of early interest that day.

R6

Dubb entry
Coltandmississippi
Topper T

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A CLENCH, who takes a big drop in class after being a bit one-paced for twice today’s tag a few weeks ago. Perhaps there were other reasons for his form with the Jason Servis barn, but a repeat of his last-out effort could be good enough to best this group; #4 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI: Was fourth in a salty race for the level that drew several veterans from the stakes ranks. The extra sixteenth of a mile may help him, as he’s more of a grinding type and has proven he can win at the distance; #2 TOPPER T: Was cooked on the front end last time out and had nothing left turning for home. He shouldn’t have to go as fast early on to be on or near the lead in this spot, and that could make things a bit easier on him.

R7

Hurricane Hill
Tenure
Fig Jelly

#5 HURRICANE HILL: Looked impressive when winning on the class drop off the layoff downstate. Lezcano retains the mount for Linda Rice, and it sure looks like there’s plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late kick; #4 TENURE: Ran well here twice a season ago and was a hard-luck loser in his first race of the season last month. A repeat effort could put him right there again in his first start for new trainer John Toscano; #3 FIG JELLY: Has made a career out of coming close to winning and not getting the job done. He’s 2-for-25 with 12 second-place finishes, many coming at short prices. While his speed figures are sharp and the connections are top-tier, I simply cannot endorse him on top.

R8

Tale of the Union
Leaky Cup
Thorny Tale

#4 TALE OF THE UNION: Looms large in this spot as one of the few East Coast-based runners trained by Bob Baffert, who takes advantage of his status as a New York-bred. If he repeats the last-out effort, one that saw him top non-winners of one in a swift time downstate, he’ll be tough; #5 LEAKY CUP: Hasn’t won since this meet last year, but ran a solid third against similar last month and seems like one of the main pace factors here. He should be able to make the lead here, and if he gets comfortable, he may have enough left in the lane; #2 THORNY TALE: Finished fourth in the same race my top selection exits, and that effort came on the heels of an impressive win in the slop at Belmont. He’s got some flexibility to his running style, which should give Javier Castellano plenty of options.

R9

Brown entry
Blewitt (MTO)
Argonne

BROWN ENTRY: I prefer #1 VOTING CONTROL, who’s clearly had some issues but is a handful when he’s on his game. This will be his second start off the bench, and he should have plenty of pace to rate off of; #2 ARGONNE: Makes his second start off the layoff for H. James Bond, whose horses have been firing this summer. He tailed off a bit last year in two starts against graded foes, but his return wasn’t bad and a step forward is logical; #8 CURRENT: Hasn’t won since late-2018 but has been going up against strong company. He was third in the Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream back in March, and Todd Pletcher’s barn has heated up of late.

R10

Big Al’s Gal (MTO)
Lucky Latkes
Running On Entry

#8 LUCKY LATKES: Has hit the board in both of her prior starts and looms large in the Friday finale. She tries two turns for the first time, but her pedigree says that shouldn’t be an issue, and she’s beaten several of these opponents in the past; #9 RUNNING ON ENTRY: Almost certainly needed her comeback race last month and drops in for a tag here. She showed talent back in 2019 before going to the sidelines, and a return to that form could get the job done here; #10 UNICORN SALLY: Comes back to the maiden claiming ranks after finding state-bred special weight foes a bit too tough. She’s shown she may have the talent to win this, but the outside post position on the inner turf could be a problem.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $656

Unfortunately, today’s bankroll blurb is a sad one, as horse racing lost longtime California trainer Mel Stute Wednesday morning. Stute was 93 and lived a full life, one that included the presence of many top-tier horses. Among the thoroughbreds he campaigned were champions Snow Chief and Brave Raj, as well as 1987 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Very Subtle.

How revered was Mel Stute? Listen closely to the background announcements in the classic horse racing movie “Let It Ride.” The voice of Trevor Denman urges Mel Stute to contact the racing office. Hopefully he got around to that at some point.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I went five-deep in the first leg of the late Pick Four but did not use Microsecond, who naturally cruised home well clear of two horses I had on the ticket (including the 11-1 runner-up). A scratch did cut my losses in half, as the ticket only cost $15.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late daily double starting in the ninth. I’ll have a pair of $3 tickets that lean on #3 MRS. ORB in the Union Avenue and #6 FAVORITE IMPULSE in the nightcap. These tickets look like this: 3 with 6,11,13, and 1,3,6 with 6. I’ll also have $5 win tickets on both of those horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Grit and Glory, Race 4
Longshot: Favorite Impulse, Race 10

R1

New Member
Naylor entry
Iranistan

#6 NEW MEMBER: Likely needed his return off of a nearly two-year layoff, so I don’t have much of an issue ignoring that clunker. He was one of the top jump horses on the grounds two summers ago, when he ran second in a Grade 1, and he could be sharper here; NAYLOR ENTRY: #1 ELUCIDATION comes in off of a win over several of these rivals. He was winless in 2019, but perhaps he’s found his best form as a 6-year-old; #4 IRANISTAN: Was favored in both Grade 1 races over fences at the Spa two years ago but hasn’t found that form in four subsequent starts. However, he does drop in class for legendary horseman Jonathan Sheppard.

R2

Lutescoot N Boogie
Malibu Luna
Safe Conduct

#5 LUTESCOOT N BOOGIE: Has outworked her modest $9,000 auction price and seems ready for her unveiling. Steve Asmussen has done strong work with 2-year-olds to this point in the meet, and the July 22 gate drill looks particularly strong; #8 MALIBU LUNA: Was one-paced when fourth in her debut, but she’s bred to get better with more experience under her belt. The outside post should help, and the restricted condition may mean this is a class drop; #4 SAFE CONDUCT: Sold for the maximum price allowed by the condition and has been working consistently for Phil Serpe. The barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, but some of the drills since her arrival look solid.

R3

Palace Avenger (MTO)
Dubb entry
Originator

#1 OLENDON: Hasn’t won in a while but was a solid second behind an odds-on winner earlier in the meet. She was Group 1-placed overseas, and this spot seems like a fairly weak one for the condition; #8 ORIGINATOR: Comes in off a win at Churchill and earned a victory at this route last summer. Trainer Ian Wilkes has enjoyed some success here, and she should have every chance to come rolling late; #7 TURF WAR: Was third in the same race my top pick exits, and that was her first start since October. She has every right to step forward second off the bench for one of the top trainer-jockey combinations on the grounds.

R4

Grit and Glory
Blood Moon
Naughty Prince

#6 GRIT AND GLORY: Comes back after winning the first race of the meet in late-running fashion. On paper, this is a step up in class, but this spot seemed to turn up very weak for the level and this may be the only horse here that can pass horses late; #2 BLOOD MOON: Tired to finish third at this level and route last time out. That day’s second-place finisher has since come back to win, and he may be the one to catch turning for home; #5 NAUGHTY PRINCE: Is wheeled back quickly after moving to 2-for-2 last week. This barn can get new acquisitions ready right away, and while the last-out win wasn’t a pretty one, he’s also never been beaten to this point and he’ll likely be a bit of a price.

R5

Hey It’s Tati (MTO)
New York Supreme
Frenchie Frou Frou

#2 NEW YORK SUPREME: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s by Constitution, out of a More Than Ready mare, and also drops in for a tag for the first time second off the bench. All of these changes could be what she needs; #7 FRENCHIE FROU FROU: Was a late-running third in her lone prior turf sprint. The experiment going long earlier in the meet didn’t work out, and it seems like she’s back where she wants to be here; #11 BONUS BABY: Doesn’t draw well but is another bred to want the grass. She’s out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, one who’s a half-sister to Swift Warrior, a multiple Grade 3 winner on the lawn.

R6

Off Topic
Risky Mandate
Foxtail

#5 OFF TOPIC: Ran in some pretty big spots a season ago, including when she was third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at this route. She’s been working well ahead of her return to the races for Todd Pletcher and will be a handful if she’s right; #1 RISKY MANDATE: Hasn’t fired a bad shot in five previous starts and will go two turns for the first time here. The back class is certainly there, but the pedigree does’t scream that she wants to go long, so I can’t endorse her on top; #4 FOXTAIL: Will be going for her third win of the meet, and no, that’s not a misprint. She capitalized on a perfect trip in an off-the-turf event last week and will get a significant class test here.

R7

Thin White Duke
I’m Blaming You
Daggerboard

#2 THIN WHITE DUKE: Has burned money in his last two starts, but his turf debut last time out wasn’t bad. He was beaten just a length that day, and a similar effort here likely puts him in the winner’s circle; #8 I’M BLAMING YOU: Hammered for $100,000 earlier this year and is bred up and down for turf. He’s by Blame, out of a City Zip mare, and may not need to be much to best this field on debut; #7 DAGGERBOARD: Comes in off a string of strong gate works downstate. He’s a son of strong turf sire Mizzen Mast, and dam Run a Dubb Dubb was a classy runner who won nine times and banked more than $421,000.

R8

Bray
Turn of Events
Mandate

#6 BRAY: Has yet to run a bad race, with two wins, a second, and a third in four lifetime starts. On paper, this is a jump up in class, but it didn’t come up looking like a strong race for the level, and this level is one he’s been competitive at in the past; #2 TURN OF EVENTS: Earned the diploma earlier this meet against maiden claiming foes and goes into starter allowance company for a hot barn. His tactical speed figures to be a plus, and the presence of aggressive rider Luis Saez implies he’ll be forwardly-placed; #3 MANDATE: Ran second behind my top pick two back before rallying to win earlier this meet. Both of his wins have come going two turns, but I fear he may need a bit more pace than he’ll get.

R9

Mrs. Orb
Ratajkowski
Newly Minted

#3 MRS. ORB: May get an ideal setup second off the bench for a sneaky-good barn. She was a close-up second behind the likely favorite in a similar spot at Belmont, and with an abundance of early speed signed on, it certainly seems like she’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #1 RATAJKOWSKI: Held off my top pick last time out to earn her fifth win in eight lifetime starts. If she gets left alone on the lead, she may be very tough to reel in; #6 NEWLY MINTED: Looked like a star last summer when she romped in the Fleet Indian going two turns here. However, she’s won just once since, and the five-month layoff is certainly a concern.

R10

Gaelic Gold
Favorite Impulse
Sainte Mere Eglise

#13 GAELIC GOLD: Will likely be favored if she draws in off the AE list. Her late-running third against similar earlier this meet was sharp, especially since there wasn’t much pace for her to close into off a bit of a freshening; #6 FAVORITE IMPULSE: Is bred up and down for the grass and looks very intriguing at a big price. She’s a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Factor This, and that’s not the kind of turf pedigree we see often in New York-breds; #11 SAINTE MERE EGLISE: Almost certainly needed her return race off a layoff of nearly a year. She was one-paced that day, but her debut here last summer was fine and she’ll be a contender if she runs back to that effort.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $671

It’s tough to believe, but the conclusion of Wednesday’s card will mark the halfway point of the 2020 Saratoga meet. It’s been a different summer, for a variety of different reasons. We’ve seen awe-inspiring efforts from the likes of Tiz the Law, Gamine, and Serengeti Empress, but they’ve come in races that usually happen near the end of the meet and act as a crescendo to weeks of rising action.

Fittingly, there will be different questions to answer between now and Labor Day. Which riders will leave Saratoga early to head to Churchill Downs? What horses will line up in the remaining Grade 1 races? Will I hang on to my lead in the pick box and win a fifth title in seven summers?

We’ve seen plenty of fireworks to this point. I hope there are more still to come.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Timely Tradition had an all-time nightmare trip in Sunday’s sixth. He still gave me a thrill with a big move around the turn, but thanks to all of his trouble, he could only manage a fourth-place finish. I dropped $30, but I hope that one runs back later in the meet.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I like the late Pick Four sequence, and the card ends early enough to where I can play it without putting my editor’s deadline in jeopardy. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh and reads as follows: 2,4,7,10,12 with 2,7 with 2,4 with 4,6,10.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Maker entry, Race 5
Longshot: Love Me Tomorrow, Race 10

R1

Fearsome
Zoom Zoom Zoe
Brianbakescookies

#7 FEARSOME: Goes back to the steeplechase ranks after chasing some pretty good turf horses in the Grade 3 Louisville. That was his first start in six month, and his lone start over fences was a nice win in a $50,000 stakes race; #3 ZOOM ZOOM ZOE: Won her debut from way back, which isn’t an easy thing to do. She tries winners for the first time and doesn’t catch an easy field, but she’s in the most capable of hands running for Jonathan Sheppard; #5 BRIANBAKESCOOKIES: Has won just once in six starts since going to the hurdles, but he’s only finished worse than third once during that stretch. Jack Fisher has had a strong meet, and this one’s usual race gives him a shot in a wide-open event.

R2

Tiz He the One
Strike That
Releasethethunder

#1 TIZ HE THE ONE: Was claimed last time out by Mike Maker, who does exceptional work with high-level claimers. He was 9/2 against Firenze Fire in a Grade 3 two back at Laurel, and he has back races that would beat these comfortably; #5 STRIKE THAT: Has three wins and three seconds in six starts and goes second off the layoff for Robertino Diodoro. Oddly, the barn is 0-for-16 at the meet as of this writing, but he’s got a big shot to get his trainer off the duck; #3 RELEASETHETHUNDER: Beat a weaker group earlier in the meet and makes his first start for new trainer Ray Handal. I’m not sure he’ll want the extra furlong he gets here, but this is another consistent runner with some stakes credentials.

R3

Money in the Bank
Daring Disguise
Shandian

#7 MONEY IN THE BANK: Goes second off a long layoff and was a good second against similar company downstate. He’s run well going short on turf a few times now, and a step forward would allow him to climb the ladder and grab the briefcase here; #4 DARING DISGUISE: Ran second at less than even-money last time out to drop to 0-for-12, but there’s a reason he takes money. From a figure standpoint, he more than fits here, and this barn is having great success here this summer; #6 SHANDIAN: Is 0-for-14 but drops back in for a tag after a failed try against better earlier in the meet. His effort three back for this tag at Belmont was fine, and he did run fairly well in two tries at this route a season ago.

R4

Radiantrithym
Tied Up
Fair Lassie

#7 RADIANTRITHYM: Hasn’t won in more than a year but was claimed by Linda Rice last time out, and she’s excellent with new acquisitions. This seems like a weaker group than what she’s been facing, and the outside post may give Jose Ortiz plenty of options; #6 TIED UP: Is a proverbial win machine with 11 triumphs in 22 career starts. She certainly seems like the controlling speed and she’ll likely be the one to catch, but the 0-for-3 local mark is a concern; #2 FAIR LASSIE: Drops way down in class to run for the lowest tag of her career. She lost all chance at the break last time out, and a cleaner start may put her in position to grab a piece of this.

R5

Maker entry
Digital Software
Break Beat

MAKER ENTRY: I prefer #1A FREEDOM FORCE, who comes back to the lawn and turned in a strong five-furlong work a few days ago. His lone turf race to date was a very strong one for the level, as he ran fourth behind three next-out winners at Gulfstream; #3 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Burned a lot of money when fourth at 3/5 at Keeneland. His debut at Churchill was solid, and perhaps the last-out effort was a bounce, but there don’t seem to be any excuses for that performance and I can’t endorse him at his likely price; #2 BREAK BEAT: Was fourth in his debut, but he’s bred to get better with experience and longer distances. His 344 turf Tomlinson rating is excellent, and the recent turf work indicates he’s set to take a step forward at second asking.

R6

Eloquent Speaker
Kinky Sox
Shesasuperfreak

#7 ELOQUENT SPEAKER: Cuts back to a sprint after running third going two turns early in the meet. Her win two back at Belmont was strong, and it helps that that day’s runner-up has since come back to win twice in a row; #6 KINKY SOX: Has taken a step forward as a 6-year-old with two wins in her last three starts. She rallied to top a weaker group last time out, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #1 SHESASUPERFREAK: Was a decent third at this level and route earlier in the meet. She hasn’t won in a while, but her last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 66 is the second-highest such number in this field.

R7

Quick Return (MTO)
Scuttlebuzz
Sandro the Great

#7 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Comes back to the turf after running fourth in an off-the-turf race last month. His lone turf start was the best race of his career and he’s bred to love the one-mile route (by The Factor, out of an Elusive Quality mare); #12 SANDRO THE GREAT: Ran second in that off-the-turf race and looms large despite a terrible post. He’s bred to be very good and he’s in arguably the hottest barn on the grounds, but the post and cutback in distance are legitimate concerns; #2 TACKLE: Hammered for $250,000 two summers ago and comes in off a bullet workout for Bill Mott ahead of his debut. He’s a half-brother to eight different winners, including Grade 2 winner Recapturetheglory, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he ran well at a price.

R8

Candy Tycoon
Forza Di Oro
Lil Commissioner

#7 CANDY TYCOON: Was my top pick in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, when he blew the break and never had a chance against the likes of Country Grammer and Caracaro. These waters are far shallower, and with a clean break, I think he has a big chance to bounce back; #2 FORZA DI ORO: Hasn’t run since December but has been working very well for Bill Mott. He showed talent as a 2-year-old and was 5-1 in the Grade 2 Remsen. If he lives up to his potential, he could develop into a horse of considerable talent; #4 LIL COMMISSIONER: Has won four of his last six starts and cruised against a weaker group in his first start for Rob Atras downstate. Two turns is a question mark, but he scratched out of a lower-level spot to run here, which can be interpreted as a sign of confidence.

R9

Thoughtfully
Make Mischief
Lucifers Lair

#4 THOUGHTFULLY: Did everything right in her debut, when she romped by nearly nine lengths at Churchill Downs. Her work tab here has been very solid, and she’s another strong 2-year-old prospect for a barn with plenty of them; #2 MAKE MISCHIEF: Was second in the Grade 3 Schuylerville on Opening Day and seems like the main speed in this race. Mark Casse’s yet to win a race at the meet, but this daughter of Into Mischief obviously has plenty of potential; #5 LUCIFERS LAIR: Graduated at first asking earlier in the meet for Todd Pletcher, whose 2-year-olds always merit respect. The turnaround is a bit quick by the barn’s standards, and the one work since is a red flag, but dismiss this barn at your own peril.

R10

Love Me Tomorrow
Deeply Analytical
Mebs Web

#10 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Has had several chances but will get one more shot from me here given the likely race shape. She sure looks like the main speed in this race, which is filled with a number of horses that may not want to pass others, and I love the outside draw; #6 DEEPLY ANALYTICAL: Stopped pretty badly when seventh of 10 as a 3/2 favorite in her lone start to date. She hasn’t been seen since, takes a big drop in class for Jorge Abreu, and is as tricky a read as any horse on the entire card; #4 MEBS WEB: Showed improvement when third against similar company earlier in the meet. She should be more fit second off the bench, and while Eric Cancel hasn’t visited the winner’s circle much, his in-the-money rate is strong and he gives the horses he rides chances to get home first.