SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/2/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $771

Sports editor Joe Boyle wrote a fantastic article profiling Pink Sheet handicappers that ran in Saturday’s paper. It was great sitting down to talk shop with my fellow handicappers. Amidst all the playful chop-busting, we respect and (most of the time!) like one another a great deal.

I do, however, take exception to one line in that piece, which read, “you’ll always get a favorite from Champagne.” As anybody who’s seen my content over the past eight years in this publication and with other national outlets will tell you, that’s not the case. The four-legged evidence file is dotted with high-profile names like Willy Beamin, Golden Ticket, and Arrogate, plus more obscure names like Bankroll Hall of Famer Fixed Point and hero of the 2019 season I’m Elmer J Fudd, who was indeed “vewy vewy live” at a big price and gave me the one winner I needed to edge Liam Durbin for last year’s title.

I did appreciate the way Joe ended the piece, and it’s a message to a lot of people (including some in high places who got very uncomfortable when I beat everyone from all media outlets a few years ago). If you don’t like the way I handicap or think there’s a better way to do it, there’s a way to shut me up. To quote the great American Ric Flair, to be the man, you gotta beat the man. To the great consternation of many, not a lot of people have done that.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Reinvestment Risk looked like a blue-chip prospect when dusting a field of fellow 2-year-olds in the opener, but he wasn’t on my doubles tickets. As such, I dropped another $24. (Online-only note: I took one for the team here. If I could’ve put down a win wager on Cariba, I would have, but deadlines made that impossible. Naturally, Cariba won at better than 4-1 odds and paid $10.40.)

SUNDAY’S PLAY: With a heavy favorite in the feature, this is a perfect time to take a swing at the Grand Slam (a wager I profiled in an edition of “The Dark Day Files” a few summers ago). I’ll look to increase my potential return on Moretti in the Birdstone with a $2 ticket starting in the sixth that looks like this: 2,5,6 with 2 with 3,6,11 with 6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dowse’s Beach, Race 7
Longshot: Ian Glass, Race 5

R1

Blend
Mrs Frankel
Delaware Destiny

#5 BLEND: Possesses tons of class on both sides of her pedigree and has every right to be a good horse. She’s a half to a pair of Grade 2 winners, and while it’s tough to debut going long, she may be equipped to handle such a journey; #3 MRS FRANKEL: Was one-paced in her debut last month going shorter at Belmont. She’s bred to want a longer distance, and that’s the route she’ll get here; #7 DELAWARE DESTINY: Fetched $100,000 at auction as a weanling and debuts for red-hot connections. First-crop sire Exaggerator was a top-class router, so it’s not like his offspring getting two turns would be a shock.

R2

Walkoff
Curlin Grey
Mills

#7 WALKOFF: Dueled and tired to finish second against slightly better company downstate, and was claimed out of that race by Mike Maker, whose barn has turned it up a notch over the past few days. The drop is an aggressive one, but it fits with the M.O. of this owner/trainer combination; #5 CURLIN GREY: Hasn’t won in a while, but take a big drop in class and has chased some solid horses this season. If there’s any hesitation, it’s because he may need more pace than he’ll likely get given the running styles of his competitors; #2 MILLS: Was a one-paced third at this route earlier in the meet and seems to catch a slightly weaker group today. The 10-year-old warhorse won two back at this level and could sit a solid stalking trip.

R3

Maker entry
Shore Magic
Bluegrass Parkway

MAKER ENTRY: #1A TIDE OF THE SEA is the part of the entry most will be betting. He just missed in his first start for this barn at Belmont, and it’s a big plus that he won at this route of ground last summer; #2 SHORE MAGIC: Hasn’t run since January but did show some early interest last time out at Gulfstream. Such a trip would likely maximize his chances of running well here given the race shape, which seems light on early zip; #4 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY: is a consistent sort that ran well in a few minor stakes races a season ago. He hasn’t run since November, and the lack of a win since his 2-year-old season is a concern, but perhaps he’s taken a leap from age three to age four.

R4

Kilmarknock
J P’s Song
Determined One

#7 KILMARKNOCK: Is a reluctant top pick in a race where I have no strong opinion. Having said that, someone has to win, and it may as well be a horse going third off the layoff and exiting a third-place finish behind a next-out winner; #1 J P’S SONG: Flashed some speed first time out for a trainer whose runners tend to need a race or two to get going. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he could lead them a long way at a bit of a price; #2 DETERMINED ONE: Was third at this level and distance at Aqueduct back in February and comes back to this condition. Aqueduct form doesn’t always translate to other tracks, but if it does, he’s got a shot in what hit me as a puzzling race to handicap.

R5

Ian Glass
Unleveraged
War Film

#2 IAN GLASS: Has one way of going, and that burned him last time off of a long layoff. However, he’s fresher in this spot and stretches back out to two turns. His two wins have both come going two-turn routes of ground, and Joel Rosario hopping aboard is a plus; #7 UNLEVERAGED: Takes a steep, steep drop in class off a layoff to run here for top connections. I know he’ll probably be favored, and it wouldn’t stun me if he won, but the 3/5 morning line hits me as a significant underlay given that seems they’re trying to get rid of the horse; #5 WAR FILM: Is a closer that’s been crying out for speed to chase. He gets that sort of setup here (at least on paper), and she should have every chance to come rolling down the lane.

R6

Lady Lilly
Spun d’Etat
My Alluring Lady

#6 LADY LILLY: Comes in off of two straight bullet workouts and gets my nod in what seems like a strong 2-year-old maiden race. This daughter of Nyquist hammered for $280,000 last year at Keeneland, and if she runs to the work tab, look out; #2 SPUN D’ETAT: Didn’t run badly when third in her debut. Tom Amoss trainees can win at second asking, and that experience could prove helpful (although her pedigree says turf and I hope she tries it at some point), #5 MY ALLURING LADY: Has been working well here for Danny Gargan and may be precocious enough to win on debut. If she does, you’ll see this race everywhere given her sire, whose name I will not type because everyone else is getting paid Brinks trucks full of money to make it abundantly clear.

R7

Dowse’s Beach
Discretionary Marq
Square Shooter

#2 DOWSE’S BEACH: Was compromised by a terrible trip last time out, one so bad that Irad Ortiz simply wrapped up on him in the lane. That’s not the real Dowse’s Beach, and I’m hoping we get a slightly-inflated price given the last-out clunker; #6 DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Hasn’t won in more than a year but has run well at this route in the past and goes second off the bench. He’s reunited with Kendrick Carmouche, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was on or near the lead turning for home; #9 SQUARE SHOOTER: Makes his 2020 debut for the Robertino Diodoro barn and has plenty of back class. If he runs back to the form he showed last season, perhaps he wins, but the post doesn’t help and this race came up pretty salty for the level.

R8

Fort Worth
Riken
Gandy Dancing

#11 FORT WORTH: Hasn’t run since April of last year, but he’s been working very well for Todd Pletcher and seems to have found a pretty soft landing spot for his return to the races. Irad sees fit to ride, and anything close to his 2019 form would likely put him in the winner’s circle; #3 RIKEN: Steps up in class, but has won three in a row and seems to be going very well for David Donk. His early speed will likely put him up front early, and we’ll see if he can carry that speed away from Belmont; #6 GANDY DANCING: Lost all chance at the start of the Mike Lee Stakes and drops in to face allowance foes here. His debut win at Aqueduct was strong, and Javier Castellano sees fit to hop aboard.

R9

Moretti
Rocketry
American Tattoo

#6 MORETTI: Wants to go as long as possible and has gotten pretty good since finding these races. He was second behind Tacitus in the Grade 2 Suburban, and between the class relief and the added distance, he certainly looks like the one to beat; #4 ROCKETRY: Hasn’t won since late-2018 but goes second off the layoff for Jimmy Jerkens here. He’d benefit from some pace up front, and if he gets it, he might be the one they have to hold off late; #5 AMERICAN TATTOO: Stretches back out to a marathon distance, and I think he’ll enjoy this trip. He was third in the Grade 2 Marathon at Santa Anita, and a return to that form would make him a contender.

R10

Tactician
Height
Kickin’ Kirby

#2 TACTICIAN: Was claimed by Robertino Diodoro last time out and stretches back out to two turns. His race two back at a similar route was pretty sharp, and a similar effort could get him home in the Sunday finale; #9 HEIGHT: Tries two turns for the first time but could enjoy that configuration. Sire Union Rags won the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes, and the second-place finish last time out could mean he’s figuring things out; #5 KICKIN’ KIRBY: Was fourth against similar at Churchill two back, and that was a two-turn event. If the main track is playing kindly to speed, he could lead them a long way at a price for Hall of Famer Nick Zito.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/1/20; WHITNEY DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $795

On this week’s edition of “Champagne and J.D.,” we sat down with one of my favorite people in the sport. Alicia Wincze Hughes works for the NTRA, and before that, she was one of the top turf writers in the country for the Lexington Herald Leader. We chatted about last weekend’s results of note and previewed several races coming up on the Whitney Day program, and it was great getting a chance to sit down and talk shop with her.

J.D. Fox and I are proud of what we’re building with this show, and we’ve got a number of really good guests coming up this summer. Search for “Champagne and J.D.” on YouTube, and if you like what you see, hit the “subscribe” button so you don’t miss any of our weekly updates!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Four ventures were both blown up in the first legs of their respective sequences. After scratches, I dropped $45.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: For the first time this meet, we’ve got a deadline conflict. I’d love to play #9 CARIBA in the 12th here, but that could go off as the sun is setting. I’m never going to be the guy to hold up print production, so I’ll focus my attention on races earlier in the program. I’ll play $4 doubles starting in the opener using #1 OLYMPIAD/#1A OUTLIER, #4 WINDCRACKER, and #8 TEAM MERCHANTS, and finishing in the second with #1 FOG OF WAR and #4 EN WYE CEE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Cariba, Race 12
Longshot: Mystery Bank, Race 8

R1

Grandview entry
Windcracker
Team Merchants

GRANDVIEW ENTRY: Either part of the entry could win this wide-open lid-lifter. #1 OLYMPIAD hammered for $700,000 and sports back-to-back bullets for Bill Mott, while #1A OUTLIER also sold for a considerable sum despite a modest pedigree and boasts a strong five-furlong gate work; #4 WINDCRACKER: Ran a good third in his debut at Churchill and could kick off a big day for trainer Tom Amoss, who saddles Allen Jerkens favorite No Parole. He showed some late interest that day, and it helps that the runner-up came right back to win; #8 TEAM MERCHANTS: Debuts for Doug O’Neill, who developed a fine first-out reputation in California. The son of Derby winner Nyquist has several big works on his tab, including a half-mile bullet from the gate over this surface last week.

R2

Fog of War
En Wye Cee
Dream Friend

#1 FOG OF WAR: Returns off the bench for Chad Brown and will be tough to beat if he’s right. He won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old back in 2018, and the recent bullet work indicates he may be back to his old self; #4 EN WYE CEE: Hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in the Grade 3 Discovery in November, but boasts a top-notch turf pedigree and could love the lawn. He’ll likely get plenty of pace to rate off of, and we may get some value here, which isn’t always the case with Todd Pletcher trainees; #3 DREAM FRIEND: Set the pace before tiring in the Grade 3 Poker and is being dropped back down in class. He hasn’t won in a while, but of the two likely pace-setters, I prefer him to the enigmatic #5 HIDDEN SCROLL.

R3

K. K. Ichikawa
Allied Invasion
Regal Speaker

#5 K. K. ICHIKAWA: Ran well when third against similar-level foes in his debut. Going long at first asking isn’t an easy thing to do, but this gelding handled it well and could step forward with some experience under his belt; #1 ALLIED INVASION: Debuts for Christophe Clement and has been working steadily ahead of his unveiling. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride, and few trainer/jockey combinations have been better at this meet; #9 REGAL SPEAKER: Showed some late interest when fourth in his debut at Delaware Park. Javier Castellano getting on for a high-percentage barn is a plus, but I’m skeptical about the field he ran against in his debut, and I can’t endorse him at his likely short price.

R4

Ima Pharoah
Dreams of Tomorrow
Futuro

#5 IMA PHAROAH: Has run second in all four outings to date, and this represents a “now or never” spot for him. It certainly seems like he’ll be on or near the lead here, and Saratoga’s main track has played very kindly to horses with that running style; #3 DREAMS OF TOMORROW: Came up a neck short last time out downstate and has a significant chance to graduate at third asking. He beat the third-place finisher by seven lengths that day, and that runner has since come back to win; #4 FUTURO: Debuts for Bill Mott after a series of strong drills at Belmont. Seven furlongs isn’t the easiest route for a first-time starter, but if the workouts are any indication, there’s some talent here.

R5

Midnight Bisou
Vexatious
Point of Honor

#3 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Looms large in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign as one of the best older horses in training regardless of gender. Her comeback race at Churchill was exceptional, and if she’s anywhere close to her usual self, she should blast this group; #4 VEXATIOUS: Made Monomoy Girl work a bit in the Grade 2 Ruffian, and that’s not an easy task. She was nearly nine lengths clear of her closest pursuer, and while she hasn’t won in a while, I think she’s a must-use in vertical exotics; #6 POINT OF HONOR: Has run well in many big spots, including when she finished second in last year’s Grade 1 Alabama over this track. The problem is, she hasn’t won since May of last year, and she may be left with a lot to do late.

R6

Stage Left
Foolish Ghost
Mister Winston

#6 STAGE LEFT: Gets a reluctant top pick in a race where I wish I didn’t have to give one. He steps back up in class after a nice win downstate, could improve second off of a long layoff, and won at this route last summer; #5 FOOLISH GHOST: Looks like the controlling speed in this race and keeps Irad Ortiz, Jr., despite the trainer switch. He looks like the controlling speed, and if the main track keeps penalizing closers, he could have a say at a price; #2 MISTER WINSTON: Gave Creed a fight last time out at Belmont when second beaten just over a length by that classy rival. This distance might suit him, but I think he’ll be left with a lot to do, and at his likely price in a wide-open event, that doesn’t make him feel like a smart play.

R7

Modern Science
King of Miami
Sol Del Sur

#8 MODERN SCIENCE: Got stuck rating well behind a slow early pace in his debut, but he showed plenty of potential rallying for third. That barn’s first-time starters don’t often win, and the presence of Joel Rosario may mean this son of all-world sire Galileo has more in the tank; #7 KING OF MIAMI: Ran pretty well when second in his off-the-turf debut and gets the surface he likely wants here. American Pharoah’s offspring seem to love the lawn, and this one’s 351 turf Tomlinson rating is tied for the highest such number in the field; #5 SOL DEL SUR: Is by Medaglia d’Oro and out of a War Front mare, which gives him turf pedigree on both sides. The recent slow works hint that he wants to go as long as possible, and he intrigues me at a price for Bill Mott.

R8

Mystery Bank
Amano
Holy Emperor

#5 MYSTERY BANK: Sure seems like the lone speed in this turf marathon, which could help considerably given the maiden condition. Orlando Noda has hit pay dirt several times at the meet already, and if this one gets left alone up front early, look out; #7 AMANO: Closed to be third last time out at Belmont and will likely be favored here for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. It wouldn’t shock me if he won, but I can’t shake the feeling he may need more pace than he’ll get; #1 HOLY EMPEROR: Was a good second against slightly weaker going a mile at Belmont. He’s bred to want to go long on the grass, and while he doesn’t strike me as a front-runner, he could sit close beneath aggressive gate rider Luis Saez.

R9

Tom’s d’Etat
Code of Honor
By My Standards

#5 TOM’S D’ETAT: Comes in after winning four races in a row, including the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill. He’s emerged as a force as a 7-year-old, and his combination of talent and versatility make him a deserving favorite in the Grade 1 Whitney; #3 CODE OF HONOR: Ran better than it may look on paper when third in the Grade 1 Met Mile downstate. He was wide that day and had to chase Vekoma, which isn’t easy to do. This two-turn trip should be right up his alley, and he gets it returning to the scene of his score in the Grade 1 Travers last year; #1 BY MY STANDARDS: Was a distant second behind Tom’s d’Etat in the Foster but won a pair of Grade 2 events before that. Jose Ortiz gets the mount here, and his usual race gives him a shot against a field light on numbers but heavy on talent.

R10

No Parole
Eight Rings
Three Technique

#6 NO PAROLE: Simply put, this Louisiana-bred looks like a freak. He’s 4-for-4 in races around one turn, and over a track that’s played very kindly to speed, I think he’ll be a handful. The recent bullet drill over this surface helps, too; #2 EIGHT RINGS: Has been training well for Bob Baffert in California, and he’s not a trainer who ships for the frequent-flyer miles. His effort in Arkansas last time out was a dud, but he showed enough promise as a 2-year-old to make me think he’s sitting on a big effort; #8 THREE TECHNIQUE: Seems like the best-meant closer in the bunch and one that may benefit if the speedballs burn out turning for home. He simply went too long in the Grade 2 Rebel last time out, and he’s 2-for-2 at today’s seven-furlong distance.

R11

Cross Border
Dot Matrix
Pillar Mountain

#2 CROSS BORDER: Jogged against overmatched state-breds here last week and should have plenty in reserve for the Grade 2 Bowling Green. He’s gotten this distance before and should have a favorable trip on or near a pretty slow early pace; #4 DOT MATRIX: Is at his best on or near the front going a long distance, and he should get that sort of trip here. He just missed two back at this distance at Belmont, but Joel Rosario climbs back aboard and should have him in a good spot; #7 PILLAR MOUNTAIN: Merits a look underneath at a big price. He likes this turf course and almost certainly needed the race last time out, which doubled as his first effort since October. Pletcher and Velazquez don’t often provide this kind of value.

R12

Cariba
I’llhandalthecash
Dalika

#9 CARIBA: Responded to the cutback in distance with a nice win downstate. Runner-up Peaceful won here impressively earlier in the meet, and the Clement barn has continued to send out well-meant horses after a scorching start; #2 I’LLHANDALTHECASH: Won here last summer and exits a win in a listed stakes race at Belmont. She was up close to a pretty moderate pace that day, but she’s also shown an ability to sit back and rally, which could prove helpful; #7 DALIKA: Was second behind my runner-up last time out and looms the danger if the race falls apart late. She won at this distance two back at Churchill, and the recent bullet hints she could be well-meant once again.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/31/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $840

I’m an animal lover and a proud pet human of a once-sheltered cat, so I have a large soft spot for any efforts made to publicize the fantastic work done by true animal rescue groups. Yesterday’s Fox Sports broadcast featured a segment highlighting the Saratoga County Animal Shelter, which partnered with NYRA on a virtual dog adoption event. This hit home with me for a lot of reasons, so I’m using my space today to help them however I can.

If you’re in Saratoga County and want to help, you can do so online by visiting saratogacountyanimalshelter.com. That site also features information on adopting and fostering animals and how to schedule an appointment, which is mandatory due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Unfortunately, Pat On the Back’s best days may be behind him. He loomed a bit going into the far turn but spun his wheels going into the stretch, so I dropped $22

FRIDAY’S PLAYS: I really like both Pick Four sequences today, so I’ll punch a pair of 50-cent tickets even though the final pre-scratch total goes beyond my usual daily budget. My early one starts in the second and reads as follows: 6,8 with 3,6 with ALL with 4,8. My late one, meanwhile, begins in the seventh and goes thusly: 4 with 8,9 with 2,3,4,6,9 with 1,3,5,7,9,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Blanket of Roses, Race 7
Longshot: Devils Rendezvous, Race 5

R1

Pazzion
Stylish Rags
Spring Break

#6 PAZZION: Debuts for Todd Pletcher after a steady series of local drills. She’s a full sister to a winner, and the outside draw could help her in what seems like a salty race for the level; #2 STYLISH RAGS: Debuts for Wesley Ward and has the bottom-side pedigree to be a runner. Her dam is a half-sister to both Group 1 winner Mozu Superflare and Grade 3 winner Sacristy, and Ward can get 2-year-olds ready to run as well as anyone; #3 SPRING BREAK: Sports an interesting gate drill earlier this month at Keeneland and ships up for her unveiling. Sire Outwork had a 2-year-old win here last weekend.

R2

Getoffmyback
Brush Country
Missle Bomb

#8 GETOFFMYBACK: Is part of a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Michelle Nevin and will be going for his third win in a row. He’s got plenty of speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could give Manny Franco plenty of options from the outside draw; #6 BRUSH COUNTRY: Comes in off a layoff for Nevin but sports a win over this track going seven furlongs last summer. He’s certainly a contender if he’s ready to fire off the bench; #2 MISSLE BOMB: Has won 10 of 33 starts and takes a big class drop in his 2020 debut. He has back races that would make him formidable against this bunch, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost a step ahead of his first race as a 7-year-old.

R3

Sursum Corda
Prairie Wings
Sengekontacket

#6 SURSUM CORDA: Has responded to gradual increases in distance and gets a marathon route here. She’s bred to love it, this barn has hit a few times already at the meet, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride; #3 PRAIRIE WINGS: Is an intriguing case in her turf debut. She’s by Tapit, and her dam is a half to the great Giant’s Causeway, so she could want this route of ground. However, she’ll need to go 11 furlongs in her first start off a brief freshening, which may not be easy; #8 SENGEKONTACKET: Responded to a new surface well when second beaten a nose in her first start since February. There is the possibility of a bounce second off the bench, but she’s also got tactical speed and could lead this bunch a long way.

R4

Pacific Gale
Lady T N T
Unholy Alliance

#5 PACIFIC GALE: Hasn’t won in a while but ran third in the Grade 3 Vagrancy and could sit an ideal stalking trip. Several of these runners need the lead, which could set things up for this classy mare to have first run; #2 LADY T N T: Is one of the speedballs in here and should improve after a needed race last time out. She won a Grade 3 two back, and she’ll be dangerous if she’s ready to take another step forward; #3 UNHOLY ALLIANCE: Misfired in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie at Gulfstream and hasn’t been seen since. However, she’s another who’ll do her best running late, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

R5

Silent Empress
Devils Rendezvous
Love Me Tomorrow

#4 SILENT EMPRESS: May have found a soft spot in which to debut for red-hot connections. Both of her dam’s prior foals to race have won, she’s worked consistently downstate for Christophe Clement, and Joel Rosario will be aboard; #8 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS: Piques my interest second off the bench. She may have moved a bit early in her return to the races, but the recent local work is pretty strong and I think she’ll be in line to take a step forward at a nice price; #5 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Faded on dirt last time out and comes back to the grass here. She hits me as this race’s most likely pace-setter, and in a race with many horses who don’t seem to want to pass others, that could be a nice spot.

R6

Zealous
Empire Line
Jerome Avenue

#3 ZEALOUS: Comes in off a long layoff, but has several sharp works ahead of his first start since February. His win at this route last year was very good, and if you believe he didn’t like the Aqueduct surface this past winter, his two most recent races (both duds) become much easier to digest; #1 EMPIRE LINE: Was beaten less than a length in his first start in a year last time out. He was a stakes-caliber 3-year-old two seasons ago, so it’s possible he’s just better than this bunch, but at his likely short price, I’ll try to beat him on top; #8 JEROME AVENUE: Got caught in the first race of the meet going two turns. He was claimed by a barn that does strong work with new acquisitions, and perhaps this elongated sprint will suit him better.

R7

Villainous (MTO)
Blanket of Roses
Dynadrive

#4 BLANKET OF ROSES: Accomplished a lot earlier this season, when he won twice at Gulfstream before finishing second in a $100,000 event at Turfway. He takes a drop back into the claiming ranks, and between the likely closer-friendly race shape and the presence of Jose Ortiz, I think he’ll be a handful; #10 DYNADRIVE: Is another closer who could get an ideal setup, and like my top pick, he runs for trainer Mike Maker. He beat similar company at Gulfstream in an off-the-turf event, but has shown ability on the lawn and stands a chance if Irad can work out a trip; #1 KING OF RANCH: Didn’t do much running in his last two at Belmont, but stretches back out to two turns and gets a friendly inside draw. The new configuration could be what he wants, and he has a chance at a piece of it if he can channel his early-2020 form.

R8

Jewel of Arabia
Flashpackinbarbie
Fair Lassie

#9 JEWEL OF ARABIA: Finally earned the diploma in a jog last time out at Belmont. She ran well here twice last summer, and while this is technically a step up in class, it’s not the most imposing field for the level; #8 FLASHPACKINBARBIE: Came back running when beating claimers downstate in her first start since last summer. She’s won two of three and has worked well here, but her one clunker came at this route; #4 FAIR LASSIE: Didn’t make the least last time, and it cost her. However, there doesn’t seem to be quite as much early zip signed on here, and Luis Saez hopping aboard is encouraging.

R9

She’s My Type
Karak
Fly So Pretty

#9 SHE’S MY TYPE: Has yet to run a bad race to this point in her career. She rallied to be second downstate and could get a perfect setup given the ample amount of early speed set to go postward in the Friday feature; #2 KARAK: Was highly-regarded enough last year to earn a trip to Royal Ascot, and she’s done fine since returning to the U.S. for Wesley Ward. She gets back to turf here and may be able to sit just off the pace; #3 FLY SO PRETTY: Wanted no part of the dirt last time out in her first start since November. She’s won two of three starts going short on the grass and could liven up Mark Casse’s summer if she gets enough pace to run at.

R10

Hurricane Breeze
Lido Key
Corey Scores

#1 HURRICANE BREEZE: Seems well-meant in a wide-open finale. She was a bit one-paced last time out at Belmont, but the return to a two-turn configuration could be just what she wants, as she’s done her best running at similar routes; #3 LIDO KEY: Was beaten less than three lengths last time out at Keeneland despite a rough start. Her morning line odds seem like an underlay, but she could certainly run well with a cleaner trip; #11 COREY SCORES: Is worth a look if she draws in off the AE list. Her return downstate was solid, she’s run well going two turns in the past, and there’s plenty of pace in her for her to rate behind.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/30/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $862

Every year, I bring up the story of Bill Finley, who wrote for The New York Daily News for years and was a part of that paper’s “Battle of Saratoga.” This was a three-way duel between turf writers where all three did what I do each day: Provide a written blurb (usually with smack talk), followed by action for that day’s racing program.

One year, Bill exhausted his $1,000 budget before the meet was over and wound up having fans submit minuscule tickets for publication. It’s my goal to never hit that point of desperation. After cashing a ticket yesterday, things finally seem to be looking up!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Danny California was bet down a bit after scratches, but he never looked like a loser and returned $6.80 for every successful $2 wager. As such, my $25 investment returned $68, accounting for a $20 win ticket and a failed $5 cold double.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the 6-1 morning line price on #1 PAT ON THE BACK in the John Morrissey, which goes as the ninth race on the program. I’ll put a $10 win bet on him, and I’ll also play $3 exactas using him above and below #4 AMUNDSON and #5 BANKIT.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Foxtail, Race 3
Longshot: Evaluator, Race 5

R1

Sugar Fix
Little Red Frog
Punk Rock Princess

#4 SUGAR FIX: Has won five of 11 career starts ahead of her debut on this circuit and is riding a streak of three straight victories. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride for a small barn, and if she’s brought her form with her, she’ll be tough; #7 LITTLE RED FROG: Has finished second in both prior turf starts and was an OK second against similar company downstate. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’ll likely be heard from late; #2 PUNK ROCK PRINCESS: Will make the rare Charles Town-to-Saratoga move in this spot but did run second in her lone prior turf start going a mile at Laurel last summer. She’s got some early speed, and that could make the rail draw an asset.

R2

Majestic View
Lord Camden
Unrelenting Force

#6 MAJESTIC VIEW: Runs for a tag for the first time and attracts Joel Rosario in this wide-open maiden claimer for state-breds. He showed some early zip in his lone prior dirt start, and he may not have been fully cranked by his patient trainer; #7 LORD CAMDEN: Moved up after going back to the dirt last time out, when he ran third despite a troubled trip. The Casse barn is winless at the meet as of this writing, but a repeat of his last race would give him a shot here; #1 UNRELENTING FORCE: Comes off a layoff for a barn that quietly does great work with a smaller head count. The question here has two parts; is he ready for his first test since March, and does he want to go a bit longer than what he’ll get?

R3

Foxtail
Daria’s Angel (MTO)
Vip Nation

#2 FOXTAIL: Was claimed by top-tier claiming trainer Danny Gargan, who drops her down in class second off the bench. She’s run well against much better company and looks formidable in this spot; #6 VIP NATION: Might have needed her return race downstate, where she still rallied late to salvage fourth money. She’s got more early speed than she showed that day, and it’s logical to think she’ll be sharper for this race; #7 ROSEBUD’S HOPE: Drops way down the ladder in her first afternoon outing since April. Her lone prior start here was a win, which is encouraging (as is the presence of Jose Ortiz), but speed hasn’t been holding going long on grass so far this meet.

R4

Our Lady of Loreto
Rousey
Charlotte Webley

#2 OUR LADY OF LORETO: Got caught after setting sizzling fractions in her first race back last month, but there’s still plenty to like. She seems like the quickest of the quick here, and if speed is holding, she may prove tough to catch; #5 ROUSEY: Looks like the best-meant closer in here. She comes back to the main track, and her races two and three back against similar groups saw her run second twice; #3 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY: Overcame a green run to find the winner’s circle as an odds-on favorite on Independence Day downstate. This is her first run against winners, and she may need to figure things out in a hurry.

R5

Twisted Tom (MTO)
Graded On a Curve
Evaluator

#8 GRADED ON A CURVE: Came back with a bang when cruising home despite an unfavorable race shape downstate. There was no early speed in that race, yet he still rallied from eight lengths back to win by more than four. A similar effort will make this one tough; #1 EVALUATOR: Has plenty of back class and has a chance to do damage here if he’s ready to run. That’s a tough ask considering the 11-month layoff, but he has back form and would benefit from a pace meltdown; #5 RINALDI: Hasn’t run a bad race to this point in his career and won two restricted stakes races last summer. His comeback race was fine, and he could improve with that run under his belt.

R6

More Mango
Checksandbalances
Malibu Anthem

#5 MORE MANGO: Was claimed by Mike Maker after running third against similar foes at Belmont. Maker moves turf horses up as well as anyone in the game, and between the barn change and this being her second start off the layoff, there are plenty of reasons to expect significant improvement; #7 CHECKSANDBALANCES: Was one-paced when fifth in her debut downstate, and that race has already produced a few next-out winners. I won’t be surprised if she wins, but this one’s been training at Monmouth with Chad Brown’s second-stringers, and that’s a red flag; #10 MALIBU ANTHEM: Has run second in both of her prior starts and tries turf for the first time. She’s by Malibu Moon, so there’s reason to believe she’ll take to the new surface.

R7

My Man Flintstone
Mister Bobby
Fed Funds

#5 MY MAN FLINTSTONE: Hasn’t won in a while, but has lots of early speed and doesn’t seem to come up against the toughest group for the level. I think he’ll go early and play “catch me if you can,” and I’m not sure these foes are up to that task; #8 MISTER BOBBY: Came back running when second against similar at Belmont earlier this month. He’s got the talent to win, but he’s also had plenty of chances at this level, which can be seen as a red flag; #3 FED FUNDS: Responded to the drop in class last time out with a maiden-breaking score and tries winners for the first time. This barn doesn’t have many runners, but it’s not often they lead a horse over that isn’t ready to run.

R8

Barrel of Destiny
Short Pour
Pecatonica

#8 BARREL OF DESTINY: Comes in in search of her fourth straight win after a successful return to New York-bred competition last month. Mike Maker claimed her two back, and I think she could sit a beautiful stalking trip and have first run around the far turn; #3 SHORT POUR: Seems like the main speed and was a good second in a solid race for the level last time out. She loves this turf course and may be tough to catch if she gets left alone early; #1 PECATONICA: Pulled off an 11-1 upset earlier in the meet and is wheeled back quickly. The “horse for course” theory is real, and she’s run the best races of her career going this route of ground.

R9

Pat On the Back
Amundson
Bankit

#1 PAT ON THE BACK: Almost certainly needed his 2020 debut, and it’s safe to assume something went wrong in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile because we didn’t see him again for six months. Toss both of those races for those logical reasons, and you have an imposing force on the rail that may be under-bet; #4 AMUNDSON: Returns to the state-bred ranks and exits some fast races against open company at Belmont. His early speed will be an asset, though it’s worth noting some of his worst races have come away from that downstate venue; #5 BANKIT: Needs to be used by vertical exotics players, but using him on top is a risky proposition. Yes, if he gets a clean trip, he could win, but he seems to find trouble and this distance may be a bit shorter than he wants.

R10

Every Minute
Boom Boom Kaboom
Tempesta

#2 EVERY MINUTE: Broke last in his debut, but showed late interest and was beaten less than four lengths. That race’s second-place finisher came back to win last weekend, and this barn is too talented to be sitting on the duck at this meet; #3 BOOM BOOM KABOOM: Exits that same race and adds blinkers for George Weaver on the slight drop in class. This is his third start since returning to the races, and he’s stepped forward in each of his last two; #4 TEMPESTA: Nearly wired the field at a price at Belmont before settling for third behind a next-out winner. The front end hasn’t exactly been the place to be, but he’s hit the board in all three of his prior turf starts and perhaps he’s turning a corner.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/29/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819

At its best, horse racing Twitter is a community of passionate people dedicated to supporting the sport both on social media and at the betting windows. At its worst, it’s a cesspool with drama reminiscent of a high school cafeteria, minus the lousy food and overdue chemistry homework.

It ticks me off when substandard behavior is considered acceptable solely because we’ve lowered the bar as a society. That’s where we’re at right now, and while racing itself is built on the backs of skeptics, critics, and those trying to find every possible bit of knowledge, it’s gotten to where racing’s most prominent social media platform just isn’t as much fun as it used to be.

Horse racing Twitter: Be better. This goes for everyone. Cultivate an atmosphere you want to be part of, and one you’d have no problem inviting friends to. The worse we act to people who have no idea about the sport, the less of a chance we have to create new fans, ones we desperately need.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: River Tiber may have some potential yet, but he raced very wide from his outside post and finished a distant third. Win and doubles tickets turned into confetti, and I dropped another $25.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: The more I look at the eighth race, the more I love #8 DANNY CALIFORNIA. He’s the only runner in here with a win over winners going two turns, and he sports several of those. I’ll play him on his own with a $20 win bet, and I’ll also single him in a $5 cold double starting in the seventh with heavy favorite #4 SAYYAAF.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Danny California, Race 8
Longshot: Niko’s Dream, Race 5

R1

Hendriks entry
Critical Data
Anticipating

HENDRIKS ENTRY: I prefer #1A GLOBAL FREEDOM, who flashed talent late last year and lost the rider in his 2020 debut. However, #1 SIXTY FIVE can also win, especially considering he needed the last-out tightener at Laurel after such a long break; #4 CRITICAL DATA: Took to hurdles like a duck to water when graduating in his first start over fences last time out. This spot came up tough for the level, but he’s a contender if he’s ready to step forward; #2 ANTICIPATING: May have been a little short last time out when third against similar company. He wired a field two back before going to the sidelines and seems like the main early speed.

R2

Belleza
Cross Keys
Whistlinginthedark

#4 BELLEZA: Chased a runaway winner in her return to the races downstate and looms large second off the bench. Any sort of a step forward will make her very tough for the Rice/Irad tag team; #7 CROSS KEYS: Tired going longer against state-bred maiden special weight foes in her unveiling for a barn whose horses sometimes need a race or two to get going. If she has the speed to make the lead against sprinters, she could get brave; #2 WHISTLINGINTHEDARK: Broke last in a big field in her first start, but showed some late interest and passed more than half the field. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she may be a price.

R3

New Day Dawning (MTO)
Positive Skew
Five Alarm Robin

#9 POSITIVE SKEW: Stepped forward in a big way when a fast-closing second in her first start beneath Joel Rosario. He’s aboard once again, and it helps her cause that she ran reasonably well over this turf course last summer; #4 FIVE ALARM ROBIN: Takes a drop in class in her first start since February. She’s run well on turf against better, but the layoff is a big concern, as is the significant plunge down the ladder; #10 GEA: Makes her first start for trainer Phil Serpe after running several OK races down in Florida. Luis Saez hops aboard for her first start on the circuit, and that seems like a positive sign in a wide-open event.

R4

Pletcher entry
Hometown
First Line

PLETCHER ENTRY: #1 AJHAR looms large, and #1A ASHIHAM could win as well. The former hooked a well-meant runner in Creed downstate and has some early speed, while the latter has run well going two turns multiple times; #2 HOMETOWN: Exits a key race that has produced several next-out winners. He’s bred to want two turns, and this barn’s runners tend to move forward at second asking; #3 FIRST LINE: Is another going two turns for the first time, and he does so second off the bench with a recent bullet workout to his credit. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, and this barn can pop at a price.

R5

Love and Love (MTO)
War Canoe
Niko’s Dream

#1 WAR CANOE: Makes lots of sense second off the layoff for Chad Brown. She may have been a bit short in the Mount Vernon downstate, and the return to a two-turn route of ground could also move her up; #6 NIKO’S DREAM: Returns for her first start since March, but ran well against open company in Florida this past spring and is worth a long look for Team Tiz the Law. She won and finished second in two starts here a season ago, and she should be running well late; #4 CLASSIC LADY: Is one of two in here for Christophe Clement and hasn’t run a bad one in more than a year. She just missed in the Mount Vernon, but I wonder if she’s best going one turn as opposed to two.

R6

Pete’s Play Call
Kantarmaci entry
Lone Rock

#3 PETE’S PLAY CALL: Chased stakes-caliber sprinter C Z Rocket at Churchill and drops back to a level he’s run well at several times. He has tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, which could put him in a great spot; KANTARMACI ENTRY: #1 REED KAN has won two in a row since coming off the bench and takes the next step up the class ladder. When he’s good, he’s very good, but when he’s bad, he’s very bad; #2 LONE ROCK: Goes back to the Bill Mott barn, and he had some success there over the winter. He was fourth in a pair of stakes races, including the Grade 3 General George at Laurel Park, and this represents a pretty significant class drop.

R7

Sayyaaf
Kitten’s Cat
Ghoul

#4 SAYYAAF: May be the shortest-priced favorite on the card, and for good reason. He was a good second in his first start off the bench, and if he can sit off of likely pacesetter #8 VICI, I think he’ll be very hard to catch when the real running starts; #10 KITTEN’S CAT: Has won two in a row and goes first off the claim for Linda Rice. The outside post can be a problem in these turf sprints, but it’s tough to argue with his recent form (and that of his rider, Jose Ortiz); #9 GHOUL: Is worth a look if you’re going price-shopping. He exits a pair of classy allowance races in Kentucky and is entered for a tag by aggressive connections.

R8

Danny California
Bebe Banker
Blackjack Davey

#8 DANNY CALIFORNIA: Stretches back out to two turns, where he’s done most of his best running, and does so against a field unproven at this trip. He won at this route last season, and the two races over the winter at Aqueduct at this distance were both very strong; #2 BEBE BANKER: Thumped weaker foes downstate after a three-month freshening and tries two turns on dirt for the first time. If the track is playing kindly to speed, this one stands to benefit; #6 BLACKJACK DAVEY: Showed significant improvement second time out in an easy win downstate. That was at a similar distance to this event, but can he show that same form going two turns in his first start against winners?

R9

Devamani
Wissahickon
Gidu

#8 DEVAMANI: Gets a narrow nod in an extremely competitive turf route. He exits the Grade 1 Manhattan, where he was beaten less than three lengths. His best race probably wins, but if his connections expected significant class relief, they didn’t get it here; #1 WISSAHICKON: Makes his U.S. debut and gets Lasix for the first time. The layoff of nearly a year is a big question mark, but he was a runaway Group 3 winner overseas and runs for strong horseman Jonathan Thomas, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he was ready; #3 GIDU: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown significant speed against some of America’s better turf horses. There’s a layoff to consider here, too, but he’ll certainly be prominent early and could have something left if he’s yielded an easy lead.

R10

Madaket entry
Sequin
Spectacularsunrise

MADAKET ENTRY: I liked #1 ZACCAPA a lot earlier this month at Belmont, and she ran an OK second that day while racing greenly and seeming to wait on her foes. I think she needed that effort, and that she’ll be much sharper in the Wednesday finale; #4 SEQUIN: Ran second in three turf starts last year before going to the sidelines in late-October. She’s been working consistently for Wesley Ward, and this certainly doesn’t seem like the toughest return engagement; #6 SPECTACULARSUNRISE: Makes her debut for Chad Brown and has every right to be a good turf horse. She’s by More Than Ready, out of a Tale of the Cat mare, and fetched $225,000 at auction last year.