bankroll | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/26/20)

Posted on July 24, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $844

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re following the action every day and have opinions on what you’re seeing. This section is at its best when readers actively get involved and give me things to expound on, so this is my periodic call to my audience to get in touch if there’s anything in particular you’d like me to address.

My Twitter DM’s (@AndrewChampagne) are open, and I read everything that comes in. I also have a “contact” feature on AndrewChampagne.com where submissions go straight to my email. I’m an easy guy to find, and there’s nothing I like more than talking about this great game with people who are passionate about it and want to see it thrive.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Another lousy day in this section, as Standup was left with too much to do in the fifth and doubles and Pick Threes went kaput. We dropped $31.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: It’s tough to say I love much on this card, but I’m interested in seeing if #10 RIVER TIBER can step forward after a disappointing debut. If he does, I think he’ll be very tough in the fifth. Let’s go with a $15 win bet and $5 doubles singling him to start and ending with #1 JAZZIQUE and #3 LOGIC N REASON in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: River Tiber, Race 5
Longshot: Dreamonmebaby, Race 10

Advanced Strategy
More Like It
Silver Token

#3 ADVANCED STRATEGY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. He’s by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie, out of a Big Brown mare, and was an OK third in his career debut back in December; #6 MORE LIKE IT: Ran well when second at this level downstate and retains the services of Jose Ortiz. Of the ones with prior turf experience, he hits me as the most logical winner; #5 SILVER TOKEN: Was third in the same race my second selection exits and wants to sit way back before making one run. He’s got the talent to win this, but may need more pace than he’ll get.

Effinity
Judge N Jury
Arrowheart

#6 EFFINITY: Is the only runner in here with any experience. He was a good second in his debut and draws a cushy outside post at second asking for a powerful barn that’s due to get rolling; #2 JUDGE N JURY: Hammered for $200,000 across the street last year and has worked well for Danny Gargan. First-call rider Manny Franco gets the mount, and this combination has hit at a very high rate; #5 ARROWHEART: Is another with some strong works on the tab ahead of his unveiling. He’s well-bred and may have potential, but this barn’s runners often need a race or two to get going.

Heirloom Kitten (MTO)
Shootin the Breeze
Road to Meath

#5 SHOOTIN THE BREEZE: Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out, when he was a late-running second at this level at Belmont. He hasn’t won in a while, but there’s plenty of pace in here and I think he’ll get the setup he wants; #10 ROAD TO MEATH: Is a logical favorite dropping in class for Chad Brown. However, he hasn’t run since March, and perhaps he doesn’t want to go two turns; #9 MANDATE: Ran a deceptively-good race when second against similar downstate. He rated off a very slow pace and showed late interest, and he’ll likely get a more favorable race shape.

The Great Dansky
Victory Boulevard
Cryptographer

#6 THE GREAT DANSKY: Drops back into the claiming ranks after finding starter allowance foes just a bit too tough. He wasn’t helped by a rough trip, though, and a repeat of the two-back effort would make him formidable; #2 VICTORY BOULEVARD: Ran into Art Collector in an optional claimer at Churchill and finds a much softer spot here. The big question: Can he win somewhere other than Aqueduct?; #5 CRYPTOGRAPHER: Drops back in for a tag second off the bench and has won twice at this 6 1/2-furlong distance. He’s got more early speed than he showed last time and might sit a solid stalking trip.

Spicy Marg (MTO)
River Tiber
Outadore

#10 RIVER TIBER: Is bred in the purple and likely got a lot out of his career debut. He’s a half to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit It A Bomb (among others) and would be tough to beat if he takes a step forward; #2 OUTADORE: Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Wesley Ward, who also saddles my top pick. He’s by promising sire Outwork and boasts several strong turf drills from his time in Florida; #1 MAD MADDY: Tries turf after two seconds in as many starts on dirt. She’s bred to like it, but she may need to pick up her feet early to avoid being shuffled back along the fence.

Primacy (MTO)
Logic N Reason
Jazzique

#3 LOGIC N REASON: May present some value second off the bench for the red-hot Christophe Clement barn. She had significant trouble in her 2020 debut last month at Belmont and is a major contender if she can get a cleaner trip second off the bench; #1 JAZZIQUE: Hits me as the stronger of the two Chad Brown trainees. Her return to the races downstate was fine, and her lone prior start over the turf course saw her make up a lot of ground and graduate at first asking over a solid group; #11 COST BENEFIT: Is the other Chad Brown runner and runs here after winning a photo in her unveiling. However, that day’s runner-up disappointed as a favorite here earlier in the meet, and she got a pretty easy trip on a moderate early pace that day.

Stage Left (MTO)
Fast Getaway
Cryogenic

#8 FAST GETAWAY: Came back running with an easy win in a turf sprint at Belmont. He’s got plenty of tactical speed, but he doesn’t need the lead to run well, which opens up options for regular rider Jose Ortiz; #9 CRYOGENIC: Is a hard-trying 5-year-old with a strong late kick that comes in off a win against Florida-breds at Gulfstream Park. These may be steeper waters, but there’s also a lot of speed to set up for the race shape he wants; #6 MORNING BREEZ: Hasn’t run a bad one since being claimed here last summer by Bob Klesaris. He was third against similar downstate and could sit just off the early pace in this spot.

Basquiat
Summer Kid
Amani’s Eagle

#6 BASQUIAT: Was a distant fourth last time out, but that was in a stakes-level allowance race. Tap It to Win was a runaway winner, and third-place finisher Country Grammer came back to win the Grade 3 Peter Pan. This seems like a friendlier spot; #7 SUMMER KID: Graduated easily last time out in the Sunshine State and tries winners for the first time. It’s also his first venture around two turns, but given that he’s by a Belmont winner and out of a dam by another Belmont winner, this route doesn’t concern me; #4 AMANI’S EAGLE: Capitalized on a front-running trip to score going slightly longer at Churchill. His two local works are solid, and I think he’s got a chance at what figures to be a nice price.

Good Governance
Halladay
Somelikeithotbrown

#2 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Returned with a bang last month to crush an overmatched group of allowance foes and enjoyed a strong summer here a season ago. I think he’s better now than he was then, and if he lives up to his potential, he’ll be a handful; #6 HALLADAY: Certainly looks like the main speed and shipped north after winning three of four starts over the winter in Florida. He looks like the one they’ll have to catch going into the far turn; #3 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Won the infamous race run at the wrong distance here two summers ago (it’s our job to never forget that happened), and has since developed into a very nice horse. He was third after setting the pace in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy, and this barn has hit with five of its last 11 runners in stakes races on the lawn.

R10

Striking Speed (MTO)
Economic Policy
Dreamonmebaby

#8 ECONOMIC POLICY: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a flop at Tampa in his first start off a layoff. He may have needed that race, and a return to his debut form in this softer spot would put him right there; #3 DREAMONMEBABY: Was claimed by Danny Gargan last time out, and Gargan immediately puts him on turf. He’s bred to love the lawn, as his dam is by Street Cry, and I think he’ll take a considerable step forward at a price; #10 TURN OF EVENTS: Was caught a bit wide in his first start for a tag last time out at Belmont. This looks like an easier race, but he’s once again stuck in an unfavorable post and may lose ground going into the first turn.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/25/20)

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $875

If you’ve been following New York racing for any length of time, you know Gary Contessa. He’s won thousands of races from the Grade 1 level down to claimers, and he’s emerged as a true ambassador for the sport.

I got the chance to sit down with him on this week’s episode of “Champagne and J.D.” We spoke for 45 minutes and hit a lot of topics, including why he stepped away from training and his thoughts on the current state of the game.

It was a blast to sit down with Gary, and I really hope you all enjoy it.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, lousy execution. I didn’t like the favorites in the sixth, but I landed on the wrong longshot and dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to play doubles and Pick Threes keying one of my best bets of the day. #10 STANDUP is a single for me in the fifth. I’ll single him in $5 doubles starting in the fourth with #3 LADY C, #4 GONE GLIMMERING, and #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER, and in $5 doubles using #3 PREAMBLE and #6 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI in the sixth. I’ll also play a $1 Pick Three starting in the fourth that uses all of these runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $31.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sistercharlie, Race 3
Longshot: Preamble, Race 6

Speightstown Gal
The Important One
Jc’s Shooting Star

#1 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL: Held on to win a strong race for the level last time out in her first start since November. That day’s third-place finisher and runner-up came back to run 1-2 earlier in the meet, and this one should be running late; #5 THE IMPORTANT ONE: Came from out of the clouds to take her turf debut downstate, and that running style could help her here. Rosario rides back for Asmussen, and the recent turf bullet is intriguing; #4 JC’S SHOOTING STAR: Drops way down in class after chasing Intercontinental champion Newspaperofrecord, Come Dancing, and others during the past year. It wouldn’t be a shock if the shallower waters are what this mare needs to turn things around.

Midnight Surprise
Munnings Muse
Vivazano

#7 MIDNIGHT SURPRISE: Has been working well of late for Todd Pletcher and doesn’t seem to have caught the toughest field in her debut. If she runs to her drills, I think she’ll be a handful; #5 MUNNINGS MUSE: Finished second in her career debut in June of last year before going to the sidelines for 13 months. She’s been working consistently ahead of her return, but this barn’s runners sometimes need their first races back; #2 VIVAZANO: Was a solid third in her unveiling and will look to rebound after misfiring in the slop two weeks ago. A return to the first-out form would make her a factor for part-owner and legendary turf writer Steven Crist.

Sistercharlie
Starship Jubilee
Call Me Love

#5 SISTERCHARLIE: Makes her long-awaited return to the races and looms large in this spot. Even if she’s not fully-cranked, it will take significant improvement from one of her opponents to keep her out of the winner’s circle; #6 STARSHIP JUBILEE: Has won five of her last six starts, and several of those wins came in runaway fashion. She’s been working well at Woodbine and certainly deserves the shot at my top pick; #1 CALL ME LOVE: Seems best of the rest for red-hot connections. Her second behind Rushing Fall in the Grade 3 Beaugay two back was fine, and a cutback to this distance could help her.

Gone Glimmering
Wedontbelieveher
Lady C

#4 GONE GLIMMERING: Was ambitiously spotted by Tom Amoss last season and has dropped down to the claiming ranks. She stepped forward with a good second against similar last time out at Churchill, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER: Showed versatility last month when rallying from well back against slightly lesser company. She was claimed by Linda Rice that day, and she’s got a strong record with new acquisitions; #3 LADY C: Has racked up the frequent flyer miles this season with races at Delta, Oaklawn, and Thistledown. She’s shown an ability to rate off the pace and rally, and this seems like the trip she’ll get here.

Standup
Unprecedented
Our Troubadour

#10 STANDUP: Rallied for third while widest of all downstate against similar and should get a great setup here. There’s tons of speed signed on, and Joel Rosario should be able to take him back before making one big run; #6 UNPRECEDENTED: Had an eventful trip when second in his first turf sprint, and they may have found what this one wants to do. These are deeper waters, but this is another closer that could benefit from a meltdown; #1 OUR TROUBADOUR: Put it all together when graduating in a maiden claimer for state-breds earlier this month. This is his first try against winners, but he could stalk the pace from the rail and have first run turning for home.

Coltandmississippi
Preamble
Skyler’s Scramjet

#6 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI: Has changed hands a lot over the past year and goes first off the claim for Dominick Schettino. He has tactical speed, but will likely stalk a hot pace, and that could put him in a prime position when the real running starts; #3 PREAMBLE: Looked like a legit prospect when he reeled off three straight wins to start his career. He hasn’t won since, but the last-out third against slightly better is encouraging and he’ll certainly have pace to run at; #4 SKYLER’S SCRAMJET: Was second in the Grade 1 Carter last season but has seen his form go south over the past four starts. This is a concerning drop, but of the speed horses, I think he’s the most likely to emerge from an early duel with the lead.

Lonesome Fugitive
Proven Strategies
Perjury Trap

#8 LONESOME FUGITIVE: Rallied to graduate over yielding going last time out and takes on winners for the first time. That race came back very fast on figures, and with closers doing well on turf this meet, he looks imposing; #7 PROVEN STRATEGIES: Chased Decorated Invader in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge last out, and that one came back to win another Grade 2 last week. He certainly looks like the main speed, and if he gets left alone early, look out; #6 PERJURY TRAP: Hasn’t been seen since breaking his maiden in his turf debut last November at Aqueduct. He may need to take a step forward to contend first off the bench, but he’s in the right barn to do that.

Pletcher entry
Parsimony
Leitone

PLETCHER ENTRY: Both halves can win, but I lean to #1A MONEY MOVES, who is 2-for-2 and tries two turns for the first time. He’s got the pedigree to love this trip, and the steady diet of five-furlong works likely put some stamina into him; #3 PARSIMONY: Has criss-crossed the globe this year and run up against some tough horses. He was most recently third in the Grade 2 Suburban behind Tacitus, and he may emerge as the main speed here; #7 LEITONE: Has plenty of back form and goes first off the claim for a barn that can pop at a price with new acquisitions. He has speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well.

Blackjack Davey (MTO)
Barleewon
Mo Ready

#4 BARLEEWON: Has taken a step forward since coming back to New York and cruised to an easy score last month against maidens. He faced winners for the first time, but further improvement could make him tough; #7 MO READY: Hasn’t run since December but has worked steadily for Todd Pletcher and graduated here last summer. This isn’t the toughest return race in the condition book, and he’ll be a major player if he’s ready; #3 SIMPLY: Won going long at first asking and was a fast-closing third in his New York debut. He may need more pace to be at his best, but at least you know the two-turn route of ground won’t be a major issue.

R10

Volatile
Whitmore
Mind Control

#4 VOLATILE: Has emerged as one of the fastest horses in the country this season. His 112 Beyer Speed Figure from the Aristides is justified, and a repeat effort could mean a freaky performance; #2 WHITMORE: Is one of the most fun horses in training to root for. The 7-year-old has raced at a high level for his entire career, and among his wins was a score in the Grade 1 Forego here two summers ago; #5 MIND CONTROL: May have hated the slop in the Grade 1 Carter, which was won by next-out Met Mile winner Vekoma. He’s won two Grade 1 races in as many local starts, and while he may be at his best going an extra furlong, his usual form could absolutely get him a piece of this.

R11

Timeless Journey
Brovia
Eighty Seven North

#5 TIMELESS JOURNEY: Was one-paced in her debut, but that proved to be a live race. The third-place finisher came flying to graduate earlier this week, and Rosario climbs aboard for Christophe Clement; #7 BROVIA: May have needed her return race off a long break, but she didn’t run badly when beaten three lengths at this level. She gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and improvement is logical second off the bench; #2 EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH: Won’t be involved in win wagers of mine given her 0-for-14 lifetime mark, but she’s a closer that has hit the board many times at this level. She goes second off the bench here and could come rolling for a piece of it to spice up the exotics.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/24/20)

Posted on July 22, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $895

I’m a big fan of the Fox Sports talent and crew covering Saratoga this summer, and I consider many members of that team personal friends. However, I can’t help but worry about some of the occupational hazards in their midst as they cover this meet, and I’m not talking about COVID-19!

During socially-distanced interviews, there’s what we in the business call a “boom mic” that swings back and forth to pick up sound from the people talking. Every time it swings back and forth, I worry it’s going to conk someone in the face. Imagine a jockey coming away from piloting a thousand-pound animal without a scratch, yet having to get off a live mount after being examined due to a run-in with a microphone.

(Keep doing a great job, everyone. I love watching the shows every day!)

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Four ticket was played to try to get value out of my best bet in the finale, but we didn’t get that far. My play went bust in the third leg, although scratches did reduce the bankroll hit to $13.50.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a swing here. I know the front end hasn’t been the place to be on turf so far this meet, but the more I look at the sixth, the more I like #2 NO MO TEMPER. The 12-1 shot ran fine in her first start in 18 months downstate, and I’m just not in love with the shorter prices. I’m putting $10 to win and place on her, and I’m hoping she lulls them to sleep on the front end in this turf marathon.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Voting Agreement, Race 3
Longshot: No Mo Temper, Race 6

Assume
Hands Up
Scarlet’s Song

#5 ASSUME: Drops way down in class for aggressive connections after getting checks against straight maidens a few times at Gulfstream. Her debut going short was fine, and it seems like she’s found her friends; #4 HANDS UP: Ran second in a maiden claimer two back at Churchill but takes a steep drop after misfiring last month. She’s a consistent sort that seems to be working well; #1 SCARLET’S SONG: Stands a chance at improving and will likely be a square price. She showed some late interest in her debut at Laurel, and perhaps she’ll take a step forward with experience and a change in surface.

Kinky Sox
Hetty G.
Overtime Olivia

#1 KINKY SOX: Ran well when second in her first start at this level and looms large. She was well clear of the third-place finisher that day, and a repeat of that effort will likely make her pretty tough to beat; #3 HETTY G.: Didn’t break well last time out in the same race my top pick exits, so I don’t have much trouble drawing a line through it. She ran well to win two starts ago, and I think she’ll be closer to the pace here; #2 OVERTIME OLIVIA: May be well-bet but has not won in a while. She’s another with some early speed, and she was a tough-luck second two back downstate.

Voting Agreement
Peaceful
Henni Penny

#6 VOTING AGREEMENT: Won her debut at this route and makes her second start off a long layoff here. She’s got some tactical speed and may get first run on the pacesetters as the field turns for home; #2 PEACEFUL: Is another that won here last summer, and she did everything but win last time out at Belmont. The question is, can she repeat that type of effort, or is a bounce in the offing?; #4 HENNI PENNY: Looks best of the rest and may be a bit of a price. She was third in the race Peaceful exits and has never been out of the money in four career starts on turf.

Stay Fond
Blunt Force
Cold Hearted Pearl

#6 STAY FOND: Came back running in her first start since February, when she rallied from last to first at this distance downstate. She has, however, shown much more early zip in prior starts, and I think she’ll be in a better spot down the backstretch; #8 BLUNT FORCE: Has shown she loves this seven-furlong trip, with two wins in her last three starts (both at this distance). Tom Amoss seems to have trained some speed into her, and the outside draw is a big help; #3 COLD HEARTED PEARL: Has tired in two starts since being claimed but may be worth another shot here. She’s won twice at this distance and has enough speed to be prominent out of the gate.

Jill’s a Hot Mess
Going Going Gone
Samborella

#6 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Makes her third start for her third different trainer at a third different track, but seems like the one to beat. She was a good second against similar company downstate and is the only runner with experience that has shown early zip; #5 GOING GOING GONE: May have needed her debut, where she chased my top pick before fading. She goes to the Rudy Rodriguez barn, which adds blinkers (a powerful move for these connections); #9 SAMBORELLA: Fetched $500,000 at auction last summer despite a modest pedigree and has some solid works on the tab. With the exception of the most recent drill, though, they don’t jump off the page, and at her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

No Mo Temper
Cap de Creus
Ebony

#2 NO MO TEMPER: Is worth a long look, especially at her likely price. Her effort off a long layoff wasn’t bad, and she may inherit the early lead by default in this turf marathon. It’s not hard to see a scenario where she gets pretty comfortable on the front end; #9 CAP DE CREUS: Has significant back class and will likely be favored. However, she’s burned a lot of money in her career, and her only win was in a dirt race in the mud at Keeneland. At her likely price, I can’t back her; #7 EBONY: Misfired in her U.S. debut, but perhaps she needed that race after a long layoff. Her prior connections saw fit to run her in a Group 1 in France last summer, and Graham Motion does well with horses second off the bench.

Munnings Muse (MTO)
Snicket
Quantitativbreezin

#8 SNICKET: Had a rough trip earlier this month at Belmont, and a case could be made that she should’ve been placed first that day. Rosario rides back for Clement, and a cleaner trip here would make her very tough; #10 QUANTITATIVBREEZIN: Rallied to be second in her debut downstate, and she raced a bit greenly that day. The experience should help her here, and she’s a contender despite the less-than-ideal outside draw; #7 MAGNOLIA’S LADY: Took a step forward when third last time out in the same race my top pick exits. She showed some early zip in that race, and she should be among the leaders going into the turn.

Free Enterprise
Strike That
Mount Travers

#7 FREE ENTERPRISE: Was third in his return to the races last month at Churchill, and based on back figures, he’s strictly the one to beat. He got really good late last year, and it’s logical to expect a return to that form in this spot; #9 STRIKE THAT: Hasn’t finished worse than second in five career starts and comes off the bench for Robertino Diodoro. He ran into Volatile last time out, and that one will likely be favored in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt this weekend; #1 MOUNT TRAVERS: Hasn’t won in a while, but his comeback race was fine, as he ran a good second in the mud at Belmont. Linda Rice’s barn has been going well, and the faster they go early, the more likely it is this one will be heard from late.

Jack and Noah
Old Chestnut
Power Up Paynter

#2 JACK AND NOAH: Has a lot of early speed and may be dangerous if he’s allowed to dictate terms. The fourth-place finisher from the Sir Cat has already come back to win, and this colt will likely be the one they have to catch; #4 OLD CHESTNUT: Hasn’t won in a while and was third in the Sir Cat, but is one to watch in case another runner goes with my top pick. There is some other speed signed on, and perhaps that softens up the chalk; #7 POWER UP PAYNTER: Didn’t do much running a few days ago when sixth against state-breds, but his race two back was a solid come-from-behind effort. A repeat of that performance could get him a check at a price.

R10

Royal Suspect (MTO)
Bricco
K. K. Ichikawa

#3 BRICCO: Ran quite well last time out, especially since that was his first start since October. That was his second time hitting the board in as many career starts, and his running style indicates a two-turn configuration won’t be a problem; #14 K. K. ICHIKAWA: Has to get lucky to draw in off the AE list, but will be a contender if he does. He debuted running third downstate and will get Lasix for the first time here; #1 AINTITFUNKYNOW: Runs for a tag for the first time, but I’m not sold. Yes, the class drop helps, but he hasn’t been running against world-beaters prior to this event, one that actually came up reasonably strong for the level. At his likely price, I’m going elsewhere.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/23/20)

Posted on July 21, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908.50

One of the great things about steeplechase racing is the chance it offers for thoroughbreds to have fruitful second careers. Ones that may be underachievers on the flat can find their form over fences, and it’s always cool to see that happen.

Snap Decision won his sixth straight race in taking Wednesday’s Jonathan Kiser. He did so while carrying an enormous impost of 162 pounds and making up lots of ground in the sprint for home, which isn’t something you see very often in steeplechase races. One has to think a graded stakes race is on the horizon for him, and it’ll be cool to see if his ascent continues when he tries those deeper waters.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Money was in on Tenderfoot, who was bet down from 4-1 to 3/2 before the gates were sprung in the fourth. However, he was one-paced and finished off the board, which kept me in the red.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I really like the late Pick Four sequence, assuming races carded for turf stay there. My 50-cent ticket starting in the seventh race reads as follows: 3,8,9,10,12 with 1,4,9 with 1,4,5 with 11. I think this may be a way to squeeze some value out of a short-priced favorite in the nightcap, one that doubles as my best bet of the day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Financialstability, Race 10
Longshot: Invest, Race 2

Moscato
Optimus Prime
Pravalaguna

#5 MOSCATO: Came back running with an easy score against Grade 3 foes and looms large for world-class steeplechase trainer Jack Fisher. His lone true misfire since a long layoff came in last year’s Lonesome Glory, when he bobbled near a fence; #3 OPTIMUS PRIME: Won the 2018 New York Turf Writers Cup and will be tough if he’s right. The question is, can he fire his best shot off a layoff of more than a year?; #2 PRAVALAGUNA: Is another coming in off a long break, but won her U.S. Debut by eight lengths and is ambitiously spotted by Fisher. She’s got plenty of early zip and will likely be prominent for most of the running.

Invest
Thomas Shelby
Northern Haze

#4 INVEST: May be a bit of a price off of a last-out clunker. However, he chased a solid pace that day, and this seems like a bit of a class drop. Rosario sees fit to ride, and if he gets comfortable early, he could be tough to run down; #6 THOMAS SHELBY: Takes a gigantic drop for owner/trainer Wesley Ward and has enough back form to go off of. Is this just a move by an aggressive outfit with lots of horses and wins, or is this an attempt to dump the horse?; #8 NORTHERN HAZE: Makes sense if you toss his last two races, and I think there’s reason to do that. He was off for five months after his race in December and broke terribly in his return downstate. He’s run well here in the past, and this is a barn capable of popping at a price.

Stunning Princess
Lost Lake
Mo Normal

#4 STUNNING PRINCESS: Has been working lights-out ahead of her debut, and I’m looking forward to seeing if that form translates to talent in the afternoons. Danny Gargan and Manny Franco have done great work together of late, and it seems as though there’s lots to like; #7 LOST LAKE: Is the only runner in here with experience, and that could be a big help. She’s by Noble Mission and bred for turf, so I’m not too turned off by the first-out clunker at Monmouth; #3 MO NORMAL: Debuts for the red-hot Christophe Clement barn, but there’s some stuff I’m not crazy about. She’s only got one five-furlong work on her tab, and while her dam was a multiple stakes winner, she hasn’t come close to reproducing herself yet.

Fresco
Dixie Cannon
Nicky Scissors

#1 FRESCO: May be a heavy favorite, which isn’t something said often about maidens in stakes races. However, she’s run well going two turns against open company for powerful connections, and the rest of this field isn’t any great shakes; #2 DIXIE CANNON: Comes up from Maryland to run against state-breds for the first time. She’s won twice going two turns and likely needed her seasonal debut off of a long hiatus; #6 NICKY SCISSORS: Has left the Jason Servis barn and will make her first start for Brad Cox. She’s here in the event rain hits and moves the race to the dirt.

Instinctive Rhythm
O’Trouble
Ahead of Plan

#7 INSTINCTIVE RHYTHM: Hammered for $350,000 at auction last year and has been training very well for George Weaver ahead of his debut. There are lots of bullets on the tab, and Castellano’s presence could be telling; #2 O’TROUBLE: Showed speed last time out in his first race since August, where he tired to finish third in a swiftly-run race. He should be in line for a step forward second off the bench; #4 AHEAD OF PLAN: Has burned money as the favorite in all three prior starts and has not run since August of last year. He’s been gelded and goes out for Chad Brown, but given his likely status as a short-priced favorite, I’m going elsewhere.

Primacy (MTO)
Simplicity
Bareeqa

#8 SIMPLICITY: Is a European invader getting Lasix for the first time, which is one of my favorite angles. Her prior connections thought enough of her to run her in five stakes races in France last season, and the Rosario/Clement tag team is formidable; #5 BAREEQA: Is a fun mare to root for, with 13 wins in 44 career starts and earnings of nearly a half-million dollars. She’s shown a powerful closing kick, and I don’t think she’s lost a step as a 7-year-old; #1 BALON ROSE: Goes second off the layoff for Chad Brown and didn’t have a great trip in her return at Churchill Downs. She could win, but her only prior score came with a perfect trip at Aqueduct and this race came up pretty salty.

Fierce Lady
Bustin to Please
My Roxy Girl

#3 FIERCE LADY: Hits me as the one to beat in a huge field, provided she’s ready to run off the bench. She’s been going against stakes-quality opposition since breaking her maiden last year, and she could have the speed to wire this group; #12 BUSTIN TO PLEASE: Came running late to score against claimers at Belmont and certainly deserves a try against this kind of opposition. She’s 6-for-11 lifetime, and sometimes horses just know how to find the wire; #8 MY ROXY GIRL: Returns from the sidelines for Linda Rice, who’s enjoyed a strong start to the summer. Her two-back win against open starter allowance foes was good, and she won here impressively a season ago.

French Reef
Modesto
Its a Wrap

#4 FRENCH REEF: Showed speed in his debut at Aqueduct, and while he hasn’t been seen since November, he’s worked well for the Brown barn and looms large. It’s tough to debut going long, and I think he may have gotten a lot out of that experience; #1 MODESTO: Has looked like a runner in morning drills for first-out wizard Wesley Ward. He’s by Uncle Mo and has shown zip in several gate drills, which leads me to believe the rail draw may not be a problem; #9 ITS A WRAP: Draws wide second off the bench after being DQ’d from second against similar downstate. He’s got early speed and may have a chance to clear the field from that outside post going into the turn.

Honest Mischief
Mihos
Wendell Fong

#4 HONEST MISCHIEF: Heads a stakes-caliber allowance event, and has looked like a top-tier sprinter at times during his career. There’s no shame in running second behind Volatile, as he did in his comeback race, and it helps that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead; #5 MIHOS: Cuts back in distance after a dud in the Grade 3 Westchester, and this hits me as the route he wants. His score going seven furlongs two back was strong, and the recent bullet at Belmont indicates he’s in good form; #1 WENDELL FONG: Chased Whitmore twice this spring at Oaklawn and makes his first start for Robertino Diodoro, who tends to move horses up quickly. He’s got enough zip to go early from his inside post, which could make him competitive the whole way around.

R10

Financialstability
Mine the Coin
Deputy Flag

#11 FINANCIALSTABILITY: Appears the most likely winner on the card thanks to his back form and a significant class drop for powerful connections. He draws well with the outside post and doesn’t appear to be facing a strong group for the condition; #9 MINE THE COIN: Was second against similar at Belmont in a race that saw him step forward pretty dramatically. If another step forward is in the offing third off the bench, he could be a player at a price; #3 DEPUTY FLAG: Misfired in a turf experiment that came first off a five-month break. I can easily forgive that race, and despite my concerns about his staying power, I concede he looks like the main early speed.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/22/20)

Posted on July 20, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $928.50

My girlfriend is a third-grade teacher. She doesn’t know what the upcoming school year will look like, but she’s constantly working hard to make sure her kids have the best possible learning environment while they’re in her classroom.

One of her primary goals before students return is to diversify her classroom library. She’s noticed that children from underrepresented groups don’t always encounter literary characters that look like them, which can make engaging them in books more difficult than it should be. She’s got a plan to do that, and she’s raising funds to make that happen.

To learn more, go to my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne) and check out my pinned tweet. If you feel compelled to help, know that I appreciate it very much, and that a bunch of third-graders in the Oakland Unified School District will as well.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: It was a lousy opening week for yours truly. Both bankroll plays fizzled, and I dropped another $20.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: This will be tough, as heavy rain is in the forecast as I type this. However, I’ll gamble that #7 TENDERFOOT, who exits a key race that has produced two impressive next-out winners already, will respond to an aggressive class drop. I’ll put $20 to win on him and hope we get that 4-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Snap Decision, Race 1
Longshot: Choose Happiness, Race 10

Snap Decision
Galway Kid
Bodes Well

#2 SNAP DECISION: Turned into one of the better steeplechasers in the country last year and comes in on a five-race winning streak. His seasonal debut was excellent, and I just cannot see another horse beating him here; #4 GALWAY KID: Won two in a row after being ambitiously spotted in his debut back in October. He hails from the barn of Jonathan Sheppard, who’s no stranger to success in jump races at Saratoga; #7 BODES WELL: Merits a look in the exotics due to the likely race shape. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed signed on, and there’s a chance this one could lead them a long way at a price.

Box of Chocolates
Bernin’ Thru Gold
Passcode

#3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES: Has lost 15 of his 16 career starts, but he was a good second against slightly better last time out and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and that should set up for his late kick; #7 BERNIN’ THRU GOLD: Drops way down in class and has run up against some stakes-quality foes in the past. The outside post could help him, and he may have found his friends; #6 PASSCODE: Ran reasonably well here twice last summer and comes in second off a long layoff. The 12-1 morning line odds hit me as an overlay, and if you’re an exotics player, he hits me as a must-use.

Cross Border
Blewitt
Yankee Division (MTO)

#1 CROSS BORDER: Will likely be the shortest-priced favorite of the day if the Lubash stays on turf. He was beaten just a length in the Grade 1 Manhattan last time out, and he looms large against what seems like an overmatched group; #6 BLEWITT: Is head and shoulders above this group if it goes to the main track, but has a respectable turf pedigree and may not be out of his element if it stays on the grass. The Velazquez/Pletcher tag team merits respect; #4 DANTE’S FIRE: Came from another zip code to win going away on Independence Day and may be rounding into form for Mike Maker. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

Tenderfoot
Breithorn
Lost in Rome

#7 TENDERFOOT: Exits a race that’s proven to be incredibly strong. Winner Yaupon was one of the most impressive horses of opening week, third-place finisher Savvy graduated at Keeneland, and this one drops in for a tag first off the geld; #2 BREITHORN: Goes second off the bench for Bill Mott and is another dropping in class. The turf experiment last time out didn’t work, but perhaps the shallower waters are what he needs; #8 LOST IN ROME: Has been competitive against similar and rallied to be second downstate last month. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

Three Jokers
Riken (MTO)
Maxwell Esquire

#4 THREE JOKERS: Looms large on either turf or dirt. His pedigree says grass will not be a problem, and he’s shown significant early zip against better in three stakes starts on the main track; #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE: Goes out for Christophe Clement, who won everything that wasn’t nailed down during opening week. He was fourth in a stakes race downstate and will likely be rolling late; #3 INSIDE INFO: Was claimed by Linda Rice last month and goes for his third straight win. This is an aggressive jump up in class, but there’s some turf in his pedigree and he’s 1-for-1 over a wet dirt track as well.

O Shea Can U See
Eye Luv Lulu
Just Right

#4 O SHEA CAN U SEE: Hasn’t run a bad one in his last five starts and was second against similar at Belmont. With so much early speed in the race, I want a horse that will be running well late, and this one fits the bill at a bit of a price; #3 EYE LUV LULU: Makes his first start since leaving the Jason Servis barn in the spring, and does so taking a steep drop in class. These connections are aggressive, so perhaps it’s not a total red flag, but at his likely price, I’ll look elsewhere for my top selection; #7 JUST RIGHT: Comes off an 11-month layoff for Todd Pletcher and cuts back in distance significantly. He broke his maiden sprinting here two summers ago, but this spot came up pretty tough for the level.

Micromillion (MTO)
Madison Parc
Crescent Lady

#1 MADISON PARC: Goes back to the lawn in a wide-open race. Her debut going two turns on turf at Santa Anita was fine, the recent bullet workout at Keeneland inspires confidence, and she may be speedy enough to utilize her rail draw; #12 CRESCENT LADY: Drew a terrible post but may be talented enough to overcome it. She’s one of only a few in here with a desire to be on or near the lead, so she may be able to clear most of her rivals early; #4 TWO CENT TOOTSIE: Has had many chances but exits what may be a career-best effort downstate. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back after that near-miss, and she may be a contender with a clean trip.

La Hara
Wild Medagliad’oro
Gauguin

#6 LA HARA: Was 2-for-2 last year before going to the sidelines and looms large in his return to the races. Joel Rosario rides for Chad Brown, and the turf workout on June 26 jumps off the page; #2 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO: Is the one to beat if this gets rained off the turf, and may also have a shot if it stays on. He showed speed when third in a stakes race at Gulfstream last month, and he may be dangerous if he’s left alone early on; #5 GAUGUIN: Enjoys running second and third, which makes him an owner’s dream and a bettor’s nightmare. Still, if you’re playing vertical exotics, he can’t be ignored second off the bench.

Singular Sensation
Sharp Starr
Eloquent Speaker

#8 SINGULAR SENSATION: Is the only runner in here to have had success going two turns. She was second at this route last summer, and she may take a leap forward second off the bench going back to her preferred configuration; #3 SHARP STARR: Stretches out after a runaway maiden win earlier this month. Two turns is a question mark, but there’s stamina in her pedigree, one that also hints an off track won’t be an issue; #7 ELOQUENT SPEAKER: Edged a next-out winner in her return from a four-month break last time out. She’s another stretching out from a sprint to a route, but she’s also eligible to move forward with conditioning.

R10

Choose Happiness
Lottie’s Mizzion
Gringotts

#12 CHOOSE HAPPINESS: Gets the nod on the class drop in a puzzling Wednesday finale. Her debut sprinting on dirt at Aqueduct back in February was fine, and it helps that that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking; #3 LOTTIE’S MIZZION: Rallied to be third off a brief layoff last month and could enjoy the extra furlong she gets in this spot. There’s some mud pedigree here, and unlike others, she’s shown an ability to pass horses late; #7 GRINGOTTS: Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment downstate. She hit the board two and three back against similar company, and she’s another that could be charging late.