BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $948.50

Eclipse Award winner and close friend Joe Nevills and I came up with a genius idea, one NYRA could use to make a significant chunk of change. Why not bottle Big Red Spring water and make it available to ship? While it’s true this “water” tastes like lighter fluid, few things are more emblematic of a summer day at the Spa than seeing an unknowing individual be cajoled/tricked into taking a sip.

Doing this brings that fun directly to your home, while also adding a revenue stream that didn’t previously exist. NYRA, if you do this, all I ask in return is a modest royalty and for 10 24-packs of this elixir to be delivered to the Nevills compound in haste.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Momos won like a good thing in the opener, and in doing so turned my $31.50 Pick Five ticket into confetti.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got two tickets to finish off the weekend. First, I’ll try to extract some value out of my best bet of the day by singling likely third-race favorite #1 DOVIMA in $5 doubles starting in the second with #4 VINEYARD SOUND and #7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE. I’ll also put $10 to win on #4 CALDEE in the seventh, as I think she’s well-meant and the 6-1 morning line odds hit me as an overlay.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dovima, Race 3
Longshot: Caldee, Race 7

R1

Sky of Hook (MTO)
Dubb entry
Power Up Paynter

DUBB ENTRY: It’s tough to go against #1 DOWSE’S BEACH and #1A NEW YORK’S FINEST. They’re a combined 10-for-15 on this turf course, and it would be far from a shock if the entrymates ran 1-2 in the Sunday lid-lifter; #2 POWER UP PAYNTER: Is a consistent sort and seems best of the rest. He rallied from well back to light up the tote board at Belmont last time out, and Linda Rice tends to keep horses on the right track; #5 ROYAL ASSET: Hasn’t won in a while but has never finished worse than third in five starts over this turf course. He likely needed his last-out effort, and perhaps he takes a step forward to get a piece of this.

R2

Hardcore Folklore
Vineyard Sound
Deep Sea

#7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE: Returns to the scene of his last victory after an improved effort second off the bench downstate. There’s plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late kick, and talented trainer Charlton Baker may have him trending upward; #4 VINEYARD SOUND: Comes back to the dirt after a failed turf experiment last time out. His dirt race two back wasn’t all that bad, given it was his first start in three months and the winner and runner-up both came back to win; #5 DEEP SEA: Is a short price on the morning line, but I’m going to try to beat him. He hasn’t won since late-2018, and he seems to find ways to get himself into trouble. He’ll have a shot with a clean trip, but can he finally get one?

R3

Dovima
In Front
Johnnie Merle

#1 DOVIMA: Did everything but win in her debut downstate and looms very large in this event. Chad Brown’s numbers with second-out maidens are some of the best in the business, and she may not have caught the strongest group for the level; #4 IN FRONT: Is fittingly named, as she may inherit the early lead by default in what seems like an otherwise paceless race. She’s run into several next-out winners in the past, so there’s back class here as well; #5 JOHNNIE MERLE: Returns after being off since February following two efforts at Fair Grounds. She didn’t break well in either outing, and it’s entirely possible she’s matured during her five-month vacation.

R4

Candy Cornell
Twelfth Labour
Releasethethunder

#3 CANDY CORNELL: Is one of two contenders in here trained by Robertino Diodoro. He’s finished worse than second just once in five starts this season, and most of those efforts have come against groups that seem better than this bunch; #6 TWELFTH LABOUR: Was claimed by Diodoro last time out, and this barn has a track record of moving new acquisitions up significantly. He hasn’t won in more than two years, but his last-out effort at Churchill was solid and perhaps the change in barns will wake him up; #5 RELEASETHETHUNDER: May have needed his comeback race at Delaware Park, where he was beaten as the 3/2 favorite. That day’s winner has since come back to win again, though, and this one ran a number of strong sprint races a season ago.

R5

Effinity (MTO)
Martinez
Generazio entry

#2 MARTINEZ: Has been working well downstate for Shug McGaughey and is bred to be a solid turf runner. He’s by Twirling Candy, there’s class on the dam’s side of the pedigree, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1A MISCHIEVOUS DREAM, who debuts for Christophe Clement and has a big shot despite an outside draw. He’s by Into Mischief, and his dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning turfer Presious Passion; #4 THIN WHITE DUKE: Has hit the board twice in as many starts and tries turf for the first time. His turf Tomlinson rating of 333 is excellent, and Manny Franco has the return mount.

R6

Leitone (MTO)
Kroy
Sentry

#9 KROY: Seems like the main speed in a race that came up very strong for the level. He chased stakes-quality turfer Halladay three back, and if he’s unleashed early and dictates terms from the front end, he could be tough to catch late; #7 SENTRY: Won two in a row before going to the sidelines last fall and comes back in this spot. His best race could absolutely win, but if he’s at that level, why is he being entered for a tag rather than going in an allowance event?; #2 WILLING TO SPEED: Hits me as an overlay at his monstrous morning line price. He’s been competitive against decent company in all five of his starts this year, and John Velazquez could get him into a prime stalking position.

R7

Caldee
Lucifers Lair
Peachy Queen

#4 CALDEE: Has been working well for Brad Cox ahead of her unveiling and has every right to be a good one. Her gate drills, in particular, look impressive, and anything close to her 6-1 morning line price would hit me as an overlay; #9 LUCIFERS LAIR: Goes out for Todd Pletcher and gets a favorable outside draw in her unveiling. The work tab is consistent, and there’s lots to like, but why isn’t first-call rider John Velazquez aboard this one?; #6 PEACHY QUEEN: Fetched $180,000 at auction last September and comes in off of a bullet workout over this surface. She may be sitting on a big race, and if one materializes, rest assured you’ll hear about it ad nauseam given her sire.

R8

Light in the Sky
My Sassy Sarah
Saratoga Love

#5 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a two-horse race. She came up just short in her return to the races last month, and a step forward is logical second off the bench; #4 MY SASSY SARAH: Was third in the race my top pick exits, and like that one, that race was her first start in quite a while. Michelle Nevin’s horses tend to improve second off of layoffs, and she should be running well late; #2 SARATOGA LOVE: Responded to a drop in class with a wire-to-wire score downstate and tries winners for the first time. This is a tougher spot, but Rosario rides back for Clement and she should be prominent early.

R9

Cat’s Pajamas
Lashara
Stunning Sky

#8 CAT’S PAJAMAS: Has won two in a row since coming back to the races as a 3-year-old. Furthermore, there isn’t much early speed signed on for a race of this stature, so she could get an easy trip near a slow pace and have first run turning for home; #3 LASHARA: Ran second behind my top selection last time out and has shown a strong turn of foot. She’s got plenty of talent, but can she overcome a likely race shape that doesn’t set up for her running style?; #6 STUNNING SKY: Has considerable back class, having run in four straight stakes races leading up to this event. She’s another that could be compromised by a slow pace, but if they go faster than anticipated early, she could be in line to pick up the pieces late.

R10

Malibu Pro
Shadow Rider
Mills

#7 MALIBU PRO: Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections and looms large in the Sunday finale. He’s been running up against much, much better horses, and anything close to his prior efforts this year will make him a formidable foe; #5 SHADOW RIDER: Is one of two Rudy Rodriguez trainees in here and may be the bigger price. Like my top pick, he’s dropping way down the class ladder, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #8 MILLS: May be peaking as a 10-year-old (yes, a 10-year-old), as he’s won three of his last four starts. He beat several of these rivals last time out, and he’s hit the board in three of four starts at the Spa.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Handicappers in the Saratoga media may work for different publications and outlets, but we’re the same breed and many of us are friends. Every year brings with it attrition in the ranks due to retirements or budget cuts, and it’s always tough to see someone go, for whatever reason.

Bill Heller was the longtime handicapper at The Daily Gazette. He’s written several books on Saratoga, and he always treated me with respect in my limited dealings with him. I found out Wednesday that he had retired, and I was sad to hear it.

Bill and others like him are a link back to when being the leading handicapper across all media at Saratoga was a special, special thing to everyone involved (to me, it still is). I hope Bill enjoys his retirement, and I hope the handicappers that are left do right by him and how he approached his duties to his craft and his readers.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: On a mess of an opening day card, I made a mess in both the pick box and the bankroll section. Candy Tycoon never had a chance after stumbling badly out of the gate, so I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I usually don’t play Pick Fives, but the late one can be attacked with an economically-friendly ticket, so I’ll fire away. My 50-cent wager starting in the sixth goes as follows: 2,8 with 2,3 with 3,6 with 5 with 1,3,5,6,10,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Indian Pride, Race 9
Longshot: Justintimeforwine, Race 5

R1

Prioritize (MTO)
Value Engineering
Bundibunan

#6 VALUE ENGINEERING: Hasn’t run a bad race to this point and came back running off the bench when victorious downstate. The added furlong is a bit of an unknown, but the pedigree hints this shouldn’t be a problem, and a repeat of his last-out effort would make him tough; #5 BUNDIBUNAN: Ran well going long on turf late last year, including a fourth-place finish in a rich stakes race at Kentucky Downs. He may need a livelier pace up front to be at his best, though, as he wants to sit back and make one run; #2 CAN’THELPBELIEVING: Hasn’t run in more than a year and hasn’t won since the 2017 Sky Classic at Woodbine, but has been working well for Graham Motion and may inherit the early lead by default. This isn’t an easy task first off a long layoff, but he could lead them a long way and come away with a piece of it.

R2

Dawn’s Early Light
Brunate
Imperio D

#1 DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT: Looms large in a race without much proven form signed on. His race off the bench downstate was fine, and he’s been working well since shipping up here after that performance; #10 BRUNATE: Settled for second against similar at Belmont after a less-than-ideal start. He’s shown improvement since coming back to the races earlier this summer, and the recent bullet drill looks pretty good; #11 IMPERIO D: Is the bigger price of the two Rudy Rodriguez trainees and was third in the race my second selection exits. He was fourth behind a next-out winner here in his debut last year, and he does have some tactical speed.

R3

The Rock Says
Ghost Game
First Rate

#4 THE ROCK SAYS: Will be asked to know his role in his first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, who does excellent work with horses first off the claim. He’s burned a lot of money, but the stretch-out to two turns could help him lay the smack down on this group (if you had “day two” in the “first wrestling reference” pool, you win); #5 GHOST GAME: Has stepped forward in each of his four starts and is protected first off the claim, which I see as a sign of confidence. He’s bred to love two turns and could come running late at a price; #3 FIRST RATE: Ran well in his first start away from Jorge Navarro last month at Gulfstream. He tries two turns on dirt for the first time, but his running style and pedigree says that shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

R4

Persian Queen
Leaveuwithasmile
Pick Up the Fone

#3 PERSIAN QUEEN: Goes back to the barn of Carlos Martin after trying tougher in two races at Churchill. The most recent effort was fine, and the first-out win here last summer indicates that she’ll have no problem with the surface; #2 LEAVEUWITHASMILE: Takes a big drop in class second off the bench for a capable outfit. She got pretty good last fall, winning three of four at Laurel, and she’ll get plenty of support at the window; #4 PICK UP THE FONE: Moved forward for Todd Pletcher last time out when wiring a weaker field at Gulfstream. She figures to be on or near the lead, and when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R5

Too Early (MTO)
Justintimeforwine
Sandro the Great

#8 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE: Has had a lot of chances, but sure looks like the only speed in an otherwise paceless race. Kendrick Carmouche is a talented speed rider, and I think he could go slow early and have plenty left late at a big price; #10 SANDRO THE GREAT: Is bred up and down to go long and turf and didn’t run badly when fifth off the layoff. Going 10 furlongs off the bench isn’t easy, and improvement is certainly logical; #7 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Had every chance last time out when closing into a very fast pace. That he didn’t get up is a red flag, but there’s plenty of pedigree to suggest he’ll go two turns. His dam was stakes-placed going long on the grass, and Jonathan Thomas can win with stretch-outs.

R6

Big Thicket
Coach Villa
Vintage Hollywood

#8 BIG THICKET: Chased a classy runner earlier this month and is wheeled back quickly by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s run well on short rest before and seems to catch a less-imposing group here; #2 COACH VILLA: Likely needed his last-out effort, when he never fired in his first start since February. His form over the winter at Aqueduct, however, was solid, and his late-running style could be a benefit if they go quickly early on; #7 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD: Hasn’t won since coming east last fall, but has run well against open claimers in the past. He could relish the slight cutback in distance for a smaller barn that must be respected.

R7

Noor Sahara
Passing Out
Blowout

#2 NOOR SAHARA: Is one of four entrants for trainer Chad Brown in this year’s De La Rose and looks like the most imposing runner. Her prior connections saw enough in her to try the Group 1 Prix de Diane Longines, one of the most prestigious races for turf distaffers in Europe, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #3 PASSING OUT: Chased next-out Jenny Wiley winner Rushing Fall in the Grade 3 Beaugay downstate and got some black type with a third-place finish. She’s done her best work going two turns, and I think she’ll relish a return to that sort of route; #9 BLOWOUT: Seems like the main speed and is another part of the Chad Brown contingent. She’s been off since October but has back class and could be tough to catch if she’s left alone and ready to run.

R8

Lady Lawyer
Turf War
Lady Worthington

#3 LADY LAWYER: Wouldn’t have been too out of place in the De La Rose and looms large for the tag team of Chad Brown and Joel Rosario. Her U.S. debut last month was solid, and she should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed; #6 TURF WAR: Won a listed stakes last year at Belmont, but hasn’t been seen since October. She has a powerful late kick and may be the one they have to hold off late if she’s fully-cranked; #5 LADY WORTHINGTON: Sure looks like the main speed, and Wesley Ward’s track record with speedy turf sprinters is unimpeachable. She hasn’t run since February, but she’s run well fresh in the past and could be ready at a price.

R9

Indian Pride
Risky Mandate
Joy Epifora

#5 INDIAN PRIDE: Cruised home in her 2020 debut last month at Belmont and showed real potential before going to the sidelines last year. She broke her maiden here at first asking last summer by eight lengths, and her usual race would make her a formidable favorite; #2 RISKY MANDATE: May have been best in her return race at Churchill and is another that hasn’t done much wrong. She was third in last year’s Grade 2 Prioress here last summer, and she’s got a win at today’s seven-furlong distance as well; #6 JOY EPIFORA: Wasn’t disgraced in her U.S. debut, when she ran second going a mile in Kentucky. She ran in some of Argentina’s biggest races a year ago and won two Group 1 events, and she’s been flying in several recent works at Keeneland.

R10

Cold Hard Cash (MTO)
K. K. Ichikawa
Frozen Account

#1 K. K. ICHIKAWA: Gets my reluctant top pick in a tough finale. His debut wasn’t bad, and he’s eligible to move forward with a start under his belt and the addition of Lasix; #10 FROZEN ACCOUNT: Merits a look in his first start on the grass given his pedigree. He’s by Central Banker and out of a Malibu Moon mare, which means he has every right to improve with the change in surface; #5 DIANNESIMPAZIBLE: Likely needed his 2020 debut off of a six-month layoff, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s horses tend to improve second off of long layoffs. With his route-heavy pedigree, two turns shouldn’t be an issue.