SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/25/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $708.60

About halfway through the card, I had seen and heard about all the Runhappy mentions I could stand. Jim McIngvale is a first-class guy that’s done a lot of good for a lot of people, but at this point, if the best horse he’s ever owned is anything short of the second coming of Mr. Prospector as a stallion, he’ll go down as the most overadvertised sire in the history of the sport.

Because of all of this, I went to Twitter and did something I’ve never done before. I muted the term, which means that I will no longer see any tweets mentioning that horse. This has proven to be a revelation. Now, if we could only mute certain terms from video feeds as we watch them…

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Travers Day provided one of those “close, but no cigar” cards. My top picks hit the board nine times in 13 races, but only managed three wins. In this section, we dropped $27.50, as the first two win-place plays were both narrowly beaten, Yo Primo went early and stopped, and Mucho Gusto could only manage third despite a solid effort.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I really like a price in the seventh race, and that’s where I’ll focus all of my action. #4 LARRY’S BABY could take a big step forward at second asking for a trainer whose second-out maidens are running well at a pretty alarming rate. In addition to a $10 win/place bet, I’ll single her in $5 cold doubles that use #5 GYPSUM JOHNNY in the sixth and #7 BULLETIN in the eighth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Bulletin, Race 8
LONGSHOT: Larry’s Baby, Race 7

R1

Wicked Whisper
Strike Magic
Paolucci entry

#2 WICKED WHISPER: Fetched $500,000 at auction last year and has a series of strong workouts ahead of her unveiling. This barn knows how to win with 2-year-olds here, and she’s a logical favorite; #3 STRIKE MAGIC: Hammered for $200,000 last fall and is bred to be a good one. She’s by Into Mischief, out of a Smart Strike mare, and comes in off a solid five-furlong drill last week; PAOLUCCI ENTRY: #1A WEDONTBELIEVEHER steps up in class, but has run well twice at the meet. The outside draw is a plus, and she could grab a piece of it at a nice price.

R2

Ahead of Plan
Tench
Real Money

#7 AHEAD OF PLAN: Tries turf for the first time but is bred to like it. His dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter, and he’s hinted at some talent in two prior starts on the main track; #5 TENCH: Also tries the grass for the first time, and his 327 turf Tomlinson rating indicates he’ll thrive on the lawn. He figures to be prominent early and could lead them a long way; #3 REAL MONEY: Cuts back in distance a bit after showing speed in several starts downstate. These connections merit respect, but there are stamina concerns here.

R3

Krewe Chief
Tide of the Sea
No Mans Land

#2 KREWE CHIEF: Gets a tepid nod in what hit me as a puzzling race. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s run well going very long on turf before and should appreciate the stretch-out in distance; #4 TIDE OF THE SEA: Wired a field of maidens at this route and tries winners for the first time. This is certainly a tougher group, but Rosario riding back for Mott inspires some confidence; #6 NO MANS LAND: Threw in a clunker last time out at Laurel, but ran well when third going long here last summer and loses blinkers here. He could be running well late beneath the rider who piloted him to victory three starts ago.

R4

Ragtime Suzy
Wisconsin Night
Queendom

#7 RAGTIME SUZY: Hasn’t won in a while, but her lone victory came over a fast dirt track, which she’ll likely get here. She’s spent lots of time on turf, but I think she may simply be a dirt horse; #5 WISCONSIN NIGHT: Comes in off a layoff, but is protected by trainer Linda Rice, who exercises a rule allowing a free shot to claimers coming off of long freshenings. That’s usually a sign of confidence, and I need to use her; #3 QUEENDOM: Drops in class second off the bench and had an eventful journey last time out. Improvement is logical in this spot, and she may be a bit of a price.

R5

Leah’s Dream (MTO)
Originator
Violent Times

#8 ORIGINATOR: Came back running off the layoff when victorious at this route last time out. She likes Saratoga runs for an astute barn that usually keeps horses on the right track; #6 VIOLENT TIMES: Was a close-up second earlier in the meet and could sit an ideal stalking trip. She led late in her most recent start and is a logical alternative to the likely favorite; #2 ENTHUSIASTIC GAL: Will be doing her best running late for a barn that’s quietly hit the board with nearly half its runners this meet. The faster they go up front early on, the better her chances figure to be.

R6

Gypsum Johnny
Sir Ballantine
Love That Jazz

#5 GYPSUM JOHNNY: Showed some late interest when fourth in his first start off a brief freshening last time out. He defeated similar company two back at Belmont, and Jose Ortiz rides back for a strong barn; #10 SIR BALLANTINE: Takes a big drop after misfiring in a turf experiment last month. Prior to that, he was an OK third against $20,000 claimers, so this $12,500 claiming event is a logical spot; #7 LOVE THAT JAZZ: Chased a runaway winner when third at this level last time out. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s got tactical speed and comes in off of a recent bullet drill at Finger Lakes.

R7

Las Ramblas
Larry’s Baby
Yellen

#14 LAS RAMBLAS: Needs lots of luck to draw in, but would be formidable if she gets to run. She’s bred to be a solid turf horse and has been working well for first-time starter maestro Wesley Ward; #4 LARRY’S BABY: Didn’t do much running first time out, but drops in class and adds Lasix for her second start. She’s got a strong turf pedigree, and Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas has won with several second-out maidens here over the past few weeks; #9 YELLEN: Showed speed against straight maidens before fading to fifth in her unveiling. The blinkers come off, and she may have enough speed to clear most of this field from her outside post.

R8

Bulletin
Front Run the Fed
Performer

#7 BULLETIN: Stretches out to two turns for the first time but is bred to like this journey. His dam has also thrown Grade 1-winning router Tiz Miz Sue, and offspring of City Zip can certainly route on turf; #1 FRONT RUN THE FED: Overwhelmed a weak group for the level last time out at Belmont and tries stakes company for the first time. This barn must be respected, but his lone two-turn effort to date was no great shakes; #5 PERFORMER: Is one of several in here trying turf for the first time. However, his 329 turf Tomlinson indicates he’ll like it, and he earned a strong 87 Beyer Speed Figure when he broke his maiden last time out.

R9

Meet Me in L A
Mo Gotcha
Tapit Wise

#2 MEET ME IN L A: Was put up last time out against maidens but has already hinted at plenty of talent. He was a close second behind a next-out stakes winner two back, and his pedigree says he’s been begging for two turns; #1 MO GOTCHA: Hasn’t done much wrong with a win and two seconds in three career starts. He exits a pair of classy races downstate, and this seems like a slightly softer spot than what he’s accustomed to; #7 TAPIT WISE: Was a solid second at this level and route earlier this month and could improve in his second start off the layoff. Irad Ortiz has ridden him well in all three prior mounts, and he’s back aboard here.

R10

Cairo Cutie (MTO)
Art Thief
Augusta Moon

#2 ART THIEF: Makes her first start off the claim for George Weaver and will race with blinkers for the first time. The winner of her last race has since come back to win, and she does boast prior two-turn experience; #4 AUGUSTA MOON: Drops in for a tag for the first time and makes sense given her powerful connections. However, it’s not like she exits classy races for the level, and whether or not Monmouth form will travel north with her is anyone’s guess; #1 COUNTENANCE: Was claimed by Steve Asmussen last time out and goes back to the turf. She ran fairly well on it at Tampa against straight maidens, and I do like when a trainer claims a horse and immediately makes a big change like this.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/19, TRAVERS DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $736.10

Happy Travers Day, everyone! We’ve got a 13-race card on tap, complete with six Grade 1 events that have attracted some of the best horses currently in training. The Travers, unfortunately, boasts an underwhelming group that lacks the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont (among other key divisional races), but from top to bottom, this is one of the most exciting cards we’ll see all year long.

There are plenty of opportunities to take stands with juicy prices, and my plays today will reflect that. If you’re diving in, pace yourself. Big fields mean potential for overlays, and a number of these events could be won by a number of contenders. From a bankroll standpoint, it’s an exciting day, as it may only take one winning ticket to ensure a profitable afternoon.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The good news is that, for the first time in a week, our action wasn’t cancelled due to a surface switch. The bad news is that Bankit needed an extra jump he didn’t get in the Albany. As such, we dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll practice what I preach by playing four separate $5 win/place bets throughout the card. I’ll use #7 BALON ROSE (race 3), #7 PAYNE (race 4), #6 YA PRIMO (race 10, the Grade 1 Sword Dancer), and #7 MUCHO GUSTO (race 11, the Travers with an overexposed sponsor I refuse to mention). Additionally, just for fun, I’ll play cold $5 doubles starting in the third and 10th races that use these horses. If morning lines hold up, it won’t take too much for this to be a pretty good day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50

– – – – –

BEST BET: Brown entry, Race 1
LONGSHOT: Five Alarm Robin, Race 13

R1

Brown entry
Lemonist
Keep Quiet

BROWN ENTRY: It could be a big day for Chad Brown, and he looks loaded here. #1 FRONTIER MARKET hasn’t run a poor race in nearly two years, while #1A UNLEVERAGED gets a class test after two wins in a row downstate; #8 LEMONIST: Is another consistent sort who has hit the board in each of his last nine starts. He cuts back after two solid seconds at marathon distances, and a mile is probably a perfect trip for him; #5 KEEP QUIET: Rallied to be fourth earlier this meet against similar foes and didn’t have much of a pace to rate off of that day. He’d benefit from solid early fractions, and his usual race likely gets him a piece of this.

R2

Atoka
Tap It to Win
Onward

#4 ATOKA: Settled for third in his debut after doing loads of heavy lifting early on. He debuted at a tough distance and adds Lasix here for a barn whose second-time starters are firing on all cylinders of late; #1 TAP IT TO WIN: Debuted with a second-place finish at Woodbine and comes in off of a bullet work over this surface. It’s tough to figure out whether or not Woodbine form will translate to the Spa, but he’s a logical favorite; #7 ONWARD: Hammered for $600,000 last September at Keeneland and has hinted at some precocity in the morning. This barn’s firsters are tough to figure out, but he does boast a fairly recent bullet drill.

R3

Balon Rose
Charreada
Ocean Fire

#7 BALON ROSE: Flopped when favored earlier in the meet, but she may not have liked the yielding surface and that day’s winner has since come back to win again. This seems like a softer group, and firmer going should help her; #2 CHARREADA: Just missed when second beaten a neck downstate and stretches back out to two turns. There’s some early speed signed on here, and she figures to be running well late; #6 OCEAN FIRE: Comes back to turf after a failed dirt try and is another that exits the same July 26 event as my top choice. Her debut over firm turf at Belmont was pretty good, as she was third behind a recent stakes-winner.

R4

Payne
Performer
T Loves a Fight

#7 PAYNE: Didn’t have a great trip (nor, to be blunt, the best ride) when third at 4/5 earlier this meet. Jose Ortiz hops back aboard, and a repeat of either of his races downstate would make him a likely winner; #11 PERFORMER: Graduated off a long layoff last time out and tries winners for the first time. The outside draw should help, but regression potential is there and I’m wondering if he wants longer than this distance; #8 T LOVES A FIGHT: Has gotten quite good lately and was most recently beaten less than two lengths when fourth in a tough state-bred stakes race. He won three in a row before that and, like my top pick, would benefit from a fast pace.

R5

Mitole
Promises Fulfilled
Bon Raison

#3 MITOLE: Had to contend with a rail draw and an in-form Imperial Hint in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt last month. The draw improves, and his rival is nowhere to be found, which means I’m inclined to give him another shot; #1 PROMISES FULFILLED: Is a logical alternative to the likely favorite. He got back on the beam last time out in the Grade 2 John Nerud, and he figures to be prominent early; #5 BON RAISON: Likes Saratoga and would benefit from a pace meltdown. He made several moves when winning the Tale of the Cat, and he could clunk up for a piece of this at a big price.

R6

Separationofpowers
Mia Mischief
Special Relativity

#4 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS: Won last year’s Grade 1 Test and is proven at this seven-furlong distance. She’s been freshened ahead of this race and could sit a dream trip just off the pace; #5 MIA MISCHIEF: Was shuffled back a bit in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss and never recovered when fourth behind a loose-on-the-lead winner. She’s better than she showed that day, and a return to form would give her a big shot; #1 SPECIAL RELATIVITY: Takes a big jump up in class but certainly deserves the opportunity. She’s undefeated in four local starts and won a minor stakes race at this route a few weeks ago.

R7

Shancelot
Hog Creek Hustle
Borracho

#1 SHANCELOT: Reminded some fans of Groovy with his romp in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he earned a 121 Beyer Speed Figure. Anything close to that, and the rest of this field will be fighting for second; #9 HOG CREEK HUSTLE: Was last seen finishing with a flourish to win the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on Belmont Day. If Shancelot bounces, he may be the one they have to hold off in the stretch; #4 BORRACHO: Was impressive when winning an optional claimer at this route earlier in the meet. He loves this distance and is another that will be doing his best running late.

R8

Mascha
Starship Jubilee
Fifty Five

#9 MASCHA: Gets a reluctant nod in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. Her American debut was a winning one, and she showed plenty of class overseas last year; #8 STARSHIP JUBILEE: Ran second in a pair of Grade 2 events at Woodbine and is very flexible. She can sit close to the pace or rate and make one run, which figures to give Jose Lezcano plenty of options; #2 FIFTY FIVE: Is cross-entered in a state-bred race Friday, but is a contender if she shows up here. She hasn’t finished out of the money in nearly two years and was most recently second in a Grade 3 event at Parx.

R9

Elate
Midnight Bisou
Golden Award

#4 ELATE: Seems to be in peak form ahead of another try at the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She was second in the controversial 2018 renewal and may be better than she was a season ago; #1 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Has reeled off five wins in a row and certainly merits respect. However, she’s 0-for-4 going longer than a mile and a sixteenth, and the rail draw is less than ideal; #6 GOLDEN AWARD: Sprang a mild upset in the Grade 3 Shuvee earlier in the meet and figures to be one of the pace-setters. If she can clear the field going into the first turn, she could dictate terms and hang on for a share.

R10

Ya Primo
Annals of Time
Channel Maker

#6 YA PRIMO: Ran well when second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, which doubled as his U.S. debut. He may have needed that race off of a layoff, and improvement is logical second off the bench for a world-class barn; #7 ANNALS OF TIME: Looked good when cruising home against optional claiming foes earlier in the meet. At his best, he’s quite good, and this isn’t the strongest Grade 1 Sword Dancer renewal in recent history; #8 CHANNEL MAKER: Was beaten less than a length in the Bowling Green and was second in this race a season ago. He was a bit wide that day, and a smoother trip could make the difference here.

R11

Mucho Gusto
Tacitus
Looking At Bikinis

#7 MUCHO GUSTO: Ships in for Bob Baffert after giving Maximum Security all he could handle in the Grade 1 Haskell. His recent works are strong, and when in doubt, there are far worse strategies than going with Bob Baffert in a big race; #6 TACITUS: Had an eventful journey when second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. The blinkers come on, and his best is certainly good enough to beat these, but has he gotten to where he actively puts himself in bad spots?; #9 LOOKING AT BIKINIS: Didn’t run well when a distant third in the Curlin, but that was over a sloppy track and he may have bounced to boot. He’s continued to work well, and I think he’s got a shot to hit the board at a nice price.

R12

Fled
Discretionary Marq
Dowse’s Beach

#2 FLED: Has won two in a row since being switched to the turf, and most recently rallied from way back to top state-breds at this route. A repeat effort would put him right there in a wide-open event; #11 DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Drew a terrible post but is absolutely capable of winning with his best effort. He’s finished in the top two in eight of 14 career outings and should be on or near the lead early; #13 DOWSE’S BEACH: May not draw in, and will have to contend with an awful draw if he does, but he’s 5-for-8 at Saratoga and won here earlier in the meet. When Jason Servis gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R13

Magic Star
Five Alarm Robin
Keepme in Thegame

#5 MAGIC STAR: Seems well-meant in her unveiling and could cap off a big day for her connections. Her dam won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old and is a half to Grade 1 winner Overanalyze, so she’s got every right to be a runner; #9 FIVE ALARM ROBIN: Has improved in every start and was a close-up third downstate. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and she seems like an overlay at her 8-1 morning line price; #10 KEEPME IN THEGAME: Ran well when third in her debut, which came going two turns at Keeneland. She returns to a similar route here, and given her pedigree, she should embrace this journey.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/23/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $766.10

Once each summer, an army of Scots attacks the track, bringing with it loud noises, plenty of liquid encouragement, and several hangers-on who somehow become part of the loosely-organized chaos that ensues. Today is that day, and this entry acts as fair warning to Saratoga-area establishments that they are, in fact, on the warpath.

Tagging along with them is at least one bystander who may very well wind up requiring swift corrective action. If you see a man stuck in a locked cage being forced to listen to “Hotel California” on a constant loop, it’s a safe bet that he has either reminded everyone he is the four-time club champion at Copake or that he is threatening to begin running golf tournaments again. If the latter scenario ensues, everyone who reads this has my permission to go yell at him.

(Hi, Dad!)

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: For the fourth day in a row, we were washed out of our action when a race was taken off the turf. Thankfully, the weather forecast for the next few days looks encouraging (knock on wood).

FRIDAY’S PLAY: My action comes in the 10th, the Albany Stakes for state-bred 3-year-olds. #2 BANKIT was nearly my best bet of the day, as I think he’ll get a perfect setup going a two-turn distance he’s shown to like. In addition to a $20 win bet, I’ll play him in $5 exactas above #7 NOT THAT BRADY and #9 DOUPS POINT.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Offering Plan, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Veterans Beach, Race 6

R1

Deeply Analytical
Jen’s Battle
Moana’s Tale

#1 DEEPLY ANALYTICAL: Fetched $270,000 at auction, which is remarkable considering she doesn’t have much of a pedigree. She’s worked consistently for Chad Brown and merits respect in her debut; #7 JEN’S BATTLE: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She has an experience edge on most of this field and comes in off a recent bullet drill; #2 MOANA’S TALE: Is by Bayern, whose first foals have hit the ground running. This barn has done great work this summer, but its track record with debuting runners is a bit spotty.

R2

Jerkens entry
Waynes Footsteps
Jimmy Jazz

JERKENS ENTRY: #1 KLICKITAT just missed off of a long layoff earlier this meet. He could take a step forward in his second start off the bench, and stablemate #1A OVERLAND looms large if this is moved to the dirt; #4 WAYNES FOOTSTEPS: Exits the same race as my top pick and also makes his second start off a long layoff. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, which is a plus; #5 JIMMY JAZZ: Exits a different race than most of these runners, and was last seen running second downstate at Belmont. He figures to be running well late and would benefit from a fast pace.

R3

Newly Minted
Behind the Couch
Wait a Minute

#2 NEWLY MINTED: Stretches out in distance for the first time, but the presence of damsire Bernardini inspires some confidence. She’s beaten many of these runners in the past, and a return to dirt should be a welcome one; #5 BEHIND THE COUCH: Hasn’t run a bad race in four career starts and has a pedigree that says she’ll love two turns. Her tactical speed is a plus, as is the arrival of jockey Jose Ortiz; #4 WAIT A MINUTE: Wired a field at this level going two turns at Finger Lakes and seems to have woken up with added distance. This seems like a tougher spot, but she’ll be prominent early and could hang on for a piece of it.

R4

Lord Camden
Scilly Cay
Three Jokers

#4 LORD CAMDEN: Showed some late interest in his debut on turf and comes to dirt for his second career start. He has an experience edge over most of these and is bred to get better with seasoning; #8 SCILLY CAY: Has some strong works ahead of his debut, most notably a swift five-furlong move last week. This isn’t the strongest spot for the level, and he may be good enough to win right away; #9 THREE JOKERS: Is bred to be a good one and also comes in off of a flashy drill. This barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, but if he runs to the pedigree, he’s got a big shot.

R5

Fifty Five
English Soul
Munchkin Money

#1 FIFTY FIVE: Drops back into the state-bred ranks after finishing a close second in a Grade 3 event. She’s won several races at this level, and anything resembling her recent races would make her tough; #2 ENGLISH SOUL: Has plenty of speed and won’t be panicked if this race gets switched to the dirt. She’s run well twice against open company this season and will be prominent early on; #6 MUNCHKIN MONEY: Has won three of her last five and takes another crack at my top pick, who has defeated her several times. She’ll likely be going well late and could absolutely snag a piece of this.

R6

Bassman Dave (MTO)
Veterans Beach
Red Zinger

#11 VETERANS BEACH: Draws a terrible post for the second time in a row, but could very well get the setup he wants. There’s lots of speed signed on, and he’s one of a few that figures to be running well late; #4 RED ZINGER: Has run well twice at this meet, including last time out when he was second in his turf debut. He doesn’t need the lead and could sit a strong stalking trip; #12 CALL ME HARRY: Drew off impressively earlier this meet and tries winners for the first time. The post is a killer, but perhaps he’s good enough to negotiate a trip from there.

R7

Fierce Lady
My Italian Rabbi
Time Limit

#5 FIERCE LADY: Likely wasn’t 100% when beaten a nose earlier this meet. She’s worked three times since that defeat and should be considerably sharper in this spot; #6 MY ITALIAN RABBI: Sprang the upset in the Stillwater, which doubled as her second win in as many starts. The outside post is a plus, and the extra half-furlong shouldn’t be an issue; #3 TIME LIMIT: Lost all chance in the Stillwater when she stumbled badly at the start. Her debut was very good, and if she runs back to that, she could be a contender at a price.

R8

Sky of Hook
City Man
Cleon Jones

#8 SKY OF HOOK: Has rallied in both of his prior starts and beat a number of these runners in the Rick Violette. This barn doesn’t always work horses quickly, so that sharp five-furlong drill is notable; #3 CITY MAN: Debuted with a nice win in an off-the-turf event earlier this summer. His most recent work was a bullet, and he’s bred to improve with added distance; #7 CLEON JONES: Came out of left field (great line, Larry) to graduate here last month. Further improvement could be in the cards as he makes his stakes debut for a strong barn.

R9

Offering Plan
Dot Matrix
Voodoo Song

#3 OFFERING PLAN: Comes back to the state-bred ranks after being beaten just three lengths in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple. He’s winless this year but could get a perfect trip well behind what figures to be a very fast early pace; #8 DOT MATRIX: Has won five of nine starts since going to the Brad Cox barn nearly two years ago. Joel Rosario has signed on to ride, and he’s another that will likely be doing his best running late; #7 VOODOO SONG: May be going the wrong way but hasn’t tried state-bred competition in a long time. He may have to work hard to get the lead, but perhaps the class drop will wake up this Grade 1 winner.

R10

Bankit
Not That Brady
Doups Point

#2 BANKIT: Looks like the class of this field, and I’m surprised he’s not favored on the morning line. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and he figures to be running well late over a track he’s proven to like very much; #7 NOT THAT BRADY: Has shown lots of early zip and was second behind my top pick last time out. He was beaten just a head in the Grade 3 Withers earlier this year and he could get brave if he’s left alone on the lead; #9 DOUPS POINT: Has burned plenty of money as the beaten favorite in his last three starts. However, he could sit a nice stalking trip, and such a journey would give him first run on tiring pace-setters at a bit of a price.

R11

Wacky Pal
The Happy Giant
Mr. Vincent

#2 WACKY PAL: Drops into the maiden claiming ranks after being beaten less than two lengths here earlier in the meet. He’s got plenty of early zip and is a big threat to wire this group; #9 THE HAPPY GIANT: Is another running against maiden claimers for the first time. He’s been one-paced in his prior turf efforts, but those have come against much better groups than what he’ll face here; #10 MR. VINCENT: Misfired thanks to a troubled trip last time out and is wheeled right back for a barn that has had success with similar stock. His race two back wasn’t bad, and a repeat could put him right there in a wide-open finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/22/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $766.10

Prior to the start of the Saratoga meet, NYRA management stated a goal of running a large percentage of races on turf. The reasoning for this is sound enough: It’s the racing office’s job to card races that will fill and draw betting money. Turf races tend to check both boxes. However, it seems like NYRA forgot one huge detail: Mother Nature.

It rains during the summer in upstate New York, and it seems like every year, those in power forget this until the first “Saratoga monsoon” (copyright Tom Amello, all rights reserved) descends upon Union Avenue. Last year, the first half of the meet was decimated by surface changes and scratches, to the point where turf races needed to be handicapped four different ways (firm turf, wet turf, fast main track, wet main track). It certainly seems like nobody learned from that.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: For the third straight racing day, our action was washed out when turf races were switched to the main track.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll go after the early Pick Five, which starts in the second race due to the Grade 1 steeplechase that kicks things off. My 50-cent ticket looks like this: 2 with 2,4,5 with 3,4,6 with 6,7 with 1,5,6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27

– – – – –

BEST BET: Internet of Things, Race 2
LONGSHOT: Claytnthelionheart, Race 4

R1

Winston C
Gibralfaro
Peppay Le Pugh

#2 WINSTON C: Rolled in the meet’s prior Grade 1 over fences and looms very large. Much of this field is comprised of horses he’s already beaten, and someone else would likely need to take a giant step forward; #5 GIBRALFARO: Was fourth behind my top pick in the AP Smithwick, but has back races that would make him a contender. A return to his 2018 form would give him a shot; #7 PEPPAY LE PUGH: May have needed the Smithwick coming off the bench, and that was his first start in America. He could take a big step forward here at a nice price.

R2

Internet of Things
Purchasing Power
Curlin’s Knight

#2 INTERNET OF THINGS: Flopped when favored against better horses on turf last time out. However, he returns to dirt and tries two turns on it for the first time against what seems like a subpar group; #4 PURCHASING POWER: Also exits a failed turf try and has done his best running going two turns on turf. He drops back to a level he ran second at two starts ago; #5 CURLIN’S KNIGHT: Has hit the board in his last four starts and was second against similar earlier in the meet. He’s got tactical speed and may be able to dictate terms on the backstretch.

R3

English Soul
Quiet Dignity
Cap de Creus

#5 ENGLISH SOUL: Has run second in both of her starts this year, which came against strong groups for this level. This doesn’t seem as strong a spot, and she’ll be even stronger if this race gets moved off the turf; #2 QUIET DIGNITY: Chased a next-out winner when third in her North American debut earlier in the meet. She gets an extra furlong here and has every right to improve second off the bench; #4 CAP DE CREUS: Just missed going longer at a big price here last month. She has back form, most notably running second to eventual Grade 1 winner Cambier Parc in January at Gulfstream.

R4

Derby Memories
Claytnthelionheart
Soul Fight

#4 DERBY MEMORIES: Woke up here earlier in the meet when he stormed home clear by nearly 15 lengths over a weak field. He faces winners for the first time, but a repeat effort would make him very tough; #3 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART: Graduated here last month, and that day’s second-place finisher has since come back to earn the diploma as well. That was a swiftly-run event, and this barn has had success with a small number of starters this meet; #6 SOUL FIGHT: Rallied from last to first downstate and is another trying winners for the first time. That day’s early pace wasn’t particularly fast, and she’s bred to like this two-turn trip.

R5

Project Whiskey (MTO)
Las Ramblas
Let It Slide

#7 LAS RAMBLAS: Looms large in her debut against what seems like a subpar group of maidens. She’s breed up and down for turf, and first-time starter maestro Wesley Ward has gotten John Velazquez to ride; #6 LET IT SLIDE: Merits a look at a price. Her dam has thrown seven winners, her second dam was Group 3-placed in Europe, and sire Freud throws runners at an alarming rate; #2 BLESSINGSOFLIBERTY: Hated dirt in her debut, but gets the turf here, and she’s bred to like the lawn. This barn’s horses tend to take big steps forward at second asking as well.

R6

Casse entry
Portos
Cowtown

CASSE ENTRY: I prefer #1A ENFORCEABLE, a full brother to Mohaymen who had a deceptively rough trip on turf last time out. Stablemate #1 LUCKY CURLIN looks well-meant as well, but Enforceable has been begging for this trip; #6 PORTOS: Is bred up and down for distance, being by Tapit and out of a Tiznow mare. Pletcher saddles two debuting runners, and this is the one that gets go-to rider John Velazquez; #5 COWTOWN: Hammered for $260,000 at auction last year and has been working consistently for Pletcher. The July 20th work looks impressive, although the pedigree says he may need time to mature.

R7

Deep Space (MTO)
Freddymo Factor
Tatterazzi

#5 FREDDYMO FACTOR: Stalked a hot pace downstate and should get a better trip in this spot. She adds blinkers for a barn that’s far better than its recent record would indicate; #10 TATTERAZZI: Didn’t have a great trip in her unveiling, but Saez sees fit to ride back in her second career start. She’s certainly eligible to improve, especially with a cleaner trip; #7 THE GREAT JOHANNA: Almost definitely needed her start earlier this meet, which doubled as her first race in a year. She showed late interest that day and ran well going long before heading to the sidelines last summer.

R8

Fiery Opal
Calculated Risker
Storm Prophet

#2 FIERY OPAL: Does his best running going two turns, and that’s the route he gets here. He won at this route two starts ago and could sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #1 CALCULATED RISKER: Won two and three back before catching a runaway winner at Finger Lakes. He’s got a win and a third in two prior starts here, and this barn has eight top-two finishes in 18 tries at the meet; #5 STORM PROPHET: Hasn’t won since late-2017, but makes his first start off the claim for a solid barn and has caught some tough fields for the level. He was second behind a next-out winner at Belmont, and he’s hit the board in 20 of 28 career outings.

R9

Queen of Beas (MTO)
Catch a Bid
New and Improved

#6 CATCH A BID: Comprises half of a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. She finished a neck behind Varenka last time out, and before that broke her maiden with an authoritative debut win downstate at this distance; #8 NEW AND IMPROVED: Endured an awful trip in her debut, but rallied to win going away with what seemed like plenty in reserve. Going from a maiden win to a stakes race is no easy task, but she showed lots of maturity earlier this meet and has every right to be a good one; #10 HOTSY TOTSY: Makes her American debut and gets Lasix for the first time. She doesn’t draw well, but she was third in a 27-horse stakes race at Royal Ascot earlier this summer and is a contender if she can channel that form.

R10

Dark Storm (MTO)
Noble Spirit
Perceived

#10 NOBLE SPIRIT: Drops into the maiden claiming ranks and gets Lasix for the first time. He ran big race two back off the layoff at Belmont and may have simply bounced going a marathon distance earlier this meet; #4 PERCEIVED: Has been gelded since his debut and is another dropping in class. This barn must be respected, but its shippers from Monmouth aren’t usually its most well-meant runners; #5 SANDY LANE KITTEN: Was claimed earlier this month by an outfit that doesn’t drop many slips in. He was fourth against similar competition that day and attracts Javier Castellano here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/21/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $766.10

Social media was in an uproar over the weekend due to events that transpired before Saturday’s Alabama. Jockeys made entrances akin to professional wrestling, complete with a smoke machine, and many people lost their minds.

I honestly have no opinion on this whole thing. If it doesn’t spook the horses and jockeys haven’t been strong-armed into it, whatever. What I find curious is the alarming number of people complaining about the smoke machine when their real complaint is not getting a smoke machine and/or entrance music for themselves.

(P.S.: Next week, when I come to Saratoga, I expect a valet following me around with one of these machines, as well as a Bluetooth sound speaker blasting The Ultimate Warrior’s theme music on a loop. If NYRA cannot provide such accommodations, I will need to force Pink Sheet editor Stan Hudy into service.)

WEEKEND ACTION: It’s been a while since we’ve had a total in here due to an incredibly busy weekend at my day job. We dropped $30 on Friday, but had no action Saturday and Sunday due to late surface switches. Remember, all bets involving turf races assume those events stay on the grass.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth race, where I really like the 9/2 third choice. That’s #7 FLUTE MAKER, who stretches out in his second start for Ken McPeek. I’ll put $10 on him to win, and I’ll single him in doubles beginning in the fifth and sixth races. My $10 double starting in the fifth singles #7 JEWEL OF ARABIA, and $5 doubles ending in the seventh use #2 AUTOSTRADE, #4 AIR ON FIRE, and #6 KEEPING THE PEACE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35

– – – – –

BEST BET: Jewel of Arabia, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Morissette, Race 8

R1

Sportswear
Cite
Chief Justice

#5 SPORTSWEAR: Is 2-for-2 since switching to steeplechase racing and tries stakes company for the first time. Any jump horse hailing from this barn merits respect, and he’s done nothing wrong this season; #3 CITE: Won here earlier in the meet and adds blinkers for this event. He ran well on the flat earlier in his career, so he may simply be a “horse for course;” #7 CHIEF JUSTICE: Was a close-up fourth in his American Debut, which came off of pretty short rest given the journey from Europe. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win a Grade 1 here earlier this summer.

R2

Smooth With a Kick
South of the Shore
Team Win

#5 SMOOTH WITH A KICK: Put it all together last time out in her first effort going two turns. This is the route she’s been bred for all along, and she seems to be coming to hand late in her 3-year-old year; #1 SOUTH OF THE SHORE: Chased Grade 1 winner Dunbar Road home at Belmont and completes a strong 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. She’s never finished out of the exacta in five career starts; #4 TEAM WIN: Won an off-the-turf event earlier in the meet and may be figuring things out. That was her second win in a row, and Todd Pletcher’s as good as anyone at keeping horses on the right track.

R3

Rejected Again
Shackleford’s Joy
Bychance

#4 REJECTED AGAIN: Was a close-up second in his debut, which came against similar-level company. Irad Ortiz hops aboard, and a repeat of his last-out effort would make him tough; #7 SHACKLEFORD’S JOY: Didn’t do much running in his debut, but adds Lasix and drops in class. This Hall of Fame barn popped at a price with a second-time starter last week; #6 BYCHANCE: Hails from a low-percentage outfit but comes in off of two straight bullet workouts. He’s bred to be a runner and could grab a piece of it at a price.

R4

Pillar Mountain
Red Knight
Nakamura

#4 PILLAR MOUNTAIN: Has won two in a row and prevailed here last month in impressive fashion. He’s shown a bit of tactical speed in the past, and he may need it given the lack of early zip elsewhere in the field; #5 RED KNIGHT: Was very wide in the Grade 2 Bowling Green last time out and drops in class a bit for this event. He’s won going very long before, and he owns a win over this turf course, too; #6 NAKAMURA: Has won three in a row and gets wheeled back on short rest for a barn that doesn’t often do that. He runs like he’ll enjoy this marathon journey, and this outfit has heated up of late.

R5

Jewel of Arabia
Sophie Rules
Be Magic

#7 JEWEL OF ARABIA: Got some black type when third in a stakes race in her debut. She’s the only runner in the body of the field with any experience, and she figures to be a very, very short price; #2 SOPHIE RULES: Debuts for a solid first-out barn and comes in off of a bullet work downstate. Her pedigree isn’t anything to write home about, but she may be precocious; #6 BE MAGIC: Has some solid drills at Belmont ahead of a debut for a barn that has won with similar debuting runners in previous Spa seasons. Junior Alvarado gets the mount, and trainer/jockey numbers are very strong.

R6

Flute Maker
Smite
Legend of Bam

#7 FLUTE MAKER: Makes his second start for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. He’s bred to love this distance (his second dam is multiple Grade 1 winner Flute), and his 304 turf Tomlinson number implies he’ll like the lawn; #1 SMITE: Ran pretty well when fourth in his debut going shorter earlier this summer. He stretches out to two turns and makes sense, but this hits me as a bit longer than he may want to go; #4 LEGEND OF BAM: Is bred to want distance and could be a factor. There are some solid drills in his work tab, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., inspires some confidence.

R7

Air on Fire
Keeping the Peace
Autostrade

#4 AIR ON FIRE: Was second to a well-meant runner earlier this meet. He was claimed by Linda Rice that day, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip in this spot; #6 KEEPING THE PEACE: Has won twice already this meet and gets wheeled back quickly for aggressive connections. If he goes here, he’ll be dangerous and could easily win his fourth race in a row; #2 AUTOSTRADE: Has run well at this distance in the past and comes back to his preferred surface after two failed outings on turf. He should be running well late and would benefit from a fast early pace.

R8

Morissette
Golconda
Merlins Muse

#8 MORISSETTE: Was fairly close to a swift early pace against better horses earlier in the meet. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and you oughta know that she prevailed against similar-level opposition two back at Monmouth; #5 GOLCONDA: Drops in class after running third at Monmouth in her first start for Jason Servis. Her prior connections thought enough of her to run her in tough spots, and if she realizes that potential, she’ll be tough; #12 MERLINS MUSE: Will have to work out a trip from a dreadful post, but drops in class a bit and has back form. She’s won at this route before and gets the services of Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.

R9

Six Percent
Our Last Buck
Leaky Cup

#8 SIX PERCENT: Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment against stakes foes. His win two back was quite good, and the recent bullet work implies that he’s in good form ahead of a very tough race to handicap; #3 OUR LAST BUCK: Had a rough trip in a turf sprint earlier this meet, which doubled as his first start since February. He should improve second off the bench for a barn that’s due to turn second and third-place finishes into wins; #6 LEAKY CUP: Ships up from Florida and tries state-bred competition for the first time. He’s shown a lot of early speed in several tries down there, and he could dictate terms early on at a price.

R10

Saloon Girl (MTO)
Matzo Bella
Avocado Toast

#8 MATZO BELLA: Comes back to turf and looks like a strong favorite in the Wednesday finale. She just missed against allowance foes two back at Belmont, and she ran well at this route when third in her debut a season ago; #4 AVOCADO TOAST: Was a sharp second against similar earlier this meet and makes her first start for a new barn. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, and she could improve given a much-improved post position here; #12 SOMETHING JOYFUL: Drops in for a tag for the first time and could appreciate the class relief, despite the far-outside draw. Her best race would give her a shot, although the post is definitely a red flag.