bankroll

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/28/19)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $804

The best horse in training doesn’t reside at Saratoga, or Del Mar, or even in North America. She’s in Europe, in the care of John Gosden, and she’ll likely attempt a second straight assault on some of America’s best horses this fall.

I’m referring, of course, to Enable, who turned back all comers in the Group 1 King George Saturday at Ascot. She’s won all but one of her 13 career starts, earned two straight victories in the Arc de Triomphe, and got her picture taken following last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Juddmonte had another superstar in Europe earlier this decade. That was the undefeated Frankel, who was dazzling in romps over all comers during his sensational career. However, given Enable’s track record, her ability to go a longer distance of ground, and her win in the U.S., I think any comparison between the two would be incredibly fair.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Ya Primo ran well in the Bowling Green, but could only manage second. Still, thanks to the presence of a $10 place bet, we only wound up dropping a dollar.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to focus on the early Pick Four, which I think can be played pretty cheaply and hit multiple times. My $1 ticket, which starts in the second race, reads as follows: 2,7,8 with 2,6 with 5,6 with 4,10. I’m against #3 FOOCH in the third, and if a non-favorite wins that race, payoff potential goes up significantly.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Runningwscissors, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Pendolino, Race 8

R1

Cleon Jones
Brian’s Last Song
Stanhope

#4 CLEON JONES: Was one-paced when favored in his debut, but comes in off of a very sharp local drill and may be worth another shot. Improvement is logical at second asking for the colt named for the former Mets outfielder; #7 BRIAN’S LAST SONG: Hammered for $180,000 here last summer and has been working steadily for trainer Todd Pletcher. He looks well-meant, but it’s curious that first-call rider John Velazquez doesn’t have the mount; #3 STANHOPE: Sold for $150,000 as a yearling and boasts several strong moves ahead of his unveiling. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because this barn’s horses often need a race or two to get going.

R2

Laser Loop
Air On Fire
Desert Lights

#8 LASER LOOP: Was claimed by an astute barn last time out and drops way down in class for this event. He should relish the shallower waters, and it’s encouraging that Saez hops aboard; #2 AIR ON FIRE: Splashed his way to a runaway win last month at Belmont and takes a step up in class here. He seems to be in strong form, and he’ll be particularly dangerous if the track comes up wet; #7 DESERT LIGHTS: Has never finished worse than third in five tries at this distance and merits respect for a solid barn. He could sit a nice stalking trip and seems like a must-use in exotics.

R3

Tenure
One Last Buck
Fooch

#6 TENURE: Graduated with ease last time out at Monmouth and tries winners for the first time. He gets the benefit of a short field, and while he’s got plenty of speed, it helps that he doesn’t seem to need the lead in order to run well; #2 OUR LAST BUCK: Comes back to turf in his first start since February and merits respect despite the layoff. His lone poor effort came in the mud at Aqueduct, and Lezcano opts to ride him back for Weaver; #3 FOOCH: Has burned plenty of money when favored in his last three starts at this level, and he figures to take action again here. He may be the main speed, but he seems tough to trust at his likely price.

R4

Runningwscissors
Daddy Knows
Bustin Hoffman

#5 RUNNINGWSCISSORS: Makes his first start for trainer Tom Amoss and looms large in this event. His lone start at this distance was an impressive win at Santa Anita, and he exits a pair of second-place efforts against stakes foes at Emerald; #6 DADDY KNOWS: Won earlier in the meet and tries winners for the first time here. He ran well twice around one turn at Belmont, and this barn tends to keep horses on the right track; #3 BUSTIN HOFFMAN: Could hit the board at a price. His record looks miles better if you toss the two Aqueduct efforts, and he may take a step forward second off the bench.

R5

Sport
Mo Gee
Quality Choice

#4 SPORT: Was pulled up last time out in an off-the-turf event and returns to his preferred surface here. He won impressively here last summer and should be rolling late; #10 MO GEE: Will have to overcome a tough outside draw, but he drops back to the right level after a failed shot for a $50,000 tag last time out. He’s run well going two turns before and could be tough if Saez can negotiate a trip; #7 QUALITY CHOICE: Drops back in for a tag after a rough trip against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. He seems to find trouble with alarming frequency, but he would be a contender with smooth sailing.

R6

Turco Bravo
Zulu
American Lincoln

#6 TURCO BRAVO: Has hit the board in every start since late-May of last year and stretches back out to two turns, which seems to be his preferred trip. He’s hit the board in five of seven local starts and could sit a great stalking trip; #5 ZULU: Drops in class for a sharp barn that must always be respected. He’s got tons of back class and would be scary if he found his old form; #1 AMERICAN LINCOLN: Has run well at this level and merits a look at a price. He’s got enough speed to secure a strong early position along the rail, and his third-place finish earlier in the meet was fine.

R7

Confessing
New and Improved
Magical Time

#1 CONFESSING: Has an experience edge on many of these and was an OK third in her turf debut at Churchill. Her pedigree says she’ll get better as she gets older, and progression would seem to make her the one to beat; #6 NEW AND IMPROVED: Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a strong pedigree. She’s by Cairo Prince, and has a female family that includes second dam Tout Charmant, a Grade 1 winner going long on turf; #5 MAGICAL TIME: Is another daughter of Cairo Prince making her debut in this spot. Her dam is a half-sister to champion Halfbridled, as well as a full sister to the dam of Grade 2-placed filly Fully Living (who was precocious).

R8

Amos
Blame It On Mom
Pendolino

#7 AMOS: Seems like the main speed in a rare sprint that doesn’t have much of that signed on. She’s improved with every start and may be tough to run down if she gets comfortable up front; #8 BLAME IT ON MOM: Has run second in both of her prior starts, but could be sitting on a bigger effort second off of a long layoff. She’s worked well here, and Rosario rides back; #2 PENDOLINO: Comes in off of a career-best effort, one where she was gaining on the winner with every jump late in the race. If they go faster than expected early on, she could be the main beneficiary.

R9

End Play
Fixed Point
So Conflated

#4 END PLAY: Makes his first start for Jason Servis and would benefit from the likely race shape. He’s a closer in a race with lots of speed around him, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a plus; #2 FIXED POINT: Made my meet last summer when he wired a field at this route to finish off an $820 Pick Four I gave out in the bankroll section. Personal sentiments aside, though, he seems like the main speed, enjoys this route, and has run up against some tough company this year; #3 SO CONFLATED: Seems like this race’s wild card. He hasn’t run in more than a year, but his running lines feature some very fast horses and his turf sprint efforts at Santa Anita back in 2018 were pretty good.

R10

Dyna Passer
Giant Zinger
Night of England

#3 DYNA PASSER: Was sent away at odds of 43-1 in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, but she actually didn’t run badly when fifth behind the very talented Concrete Rose. She’s won at this distance before and could still be improving; #9 GIANT ZINGER: Was third in a strangely-run race on opening day and possesses lots of back class. She ran in three straight graded stakes races before that and figures to be up close early on here; #7 NIGHT OF ENGLAND: Will likely be favored, but I think she’s beatable. She comes off a long layoff and likely won’t be alone on the front end. If there’s a time to try to beat her, I think it’s here.

R11

Nitrous
Honest Mischief
Shancelot

#6 NITROUS: Was flying late when second in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens and seems to have found his niche as a one-run, one-turn closer. He’ll almost certainly get a fast pace to run at here, and if one develops, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #5 HONEST MISCHIEF: Was up fairly close to the scorching-hot pace in the Woody Stephens but was beaten just three lengths that day. His win two back was excellent, and he may get first run on the leaders turning for home; #12 SHANCELOT: May very well simply be a freak. He’s run two very fast races and may wind up favored, but there’s a lot of early speed to go with him early, and I can’t trust him at his likely price.

R12

Abby Normal
Fusi
Deja Raconte

#4 ABBY NORMAL: Comes back to the turf and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale. She’s closed well in her races on firm turf, and this turf course has played kind to that style this meet; #7 FUSI: Ran well in two starts prior to being claimed by Brad Cox, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and she’s another that could be rolling late; #5 DEJA RACONTE: Comes in off of two strong workouts and may not have to be much to pick up a check here. This barn is off to a very good start at the meet and knows how to win with a firster at this level.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/19)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Over the past few years, I’ve wondered aloud why the Curlin Stakes is carded for the same week as the Jim Dandy. Every year, without fail, an ungraded, $100,000 race takes one or two horses that may have been contenders in Saratoga’s main prep for the Travers. Simply put, it doesn’t make any sense to me.

Here’s the idea I seem to pitch annually: Move the Curlin to Travers Day. I’d rather lose a few 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. This would give the Curlin a similar purpose to that of the Easy Goer, which is run on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It would be a far better fit on the calendar in that spot, and I sincerely hope rational logic prevails sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Doubles were rendered null and void when the second race was moved from turf to dirt.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve never been a real believer in this year’s bunch of American turf horses (aside from Bricks and Mortar). With that in mind, I’ll put some money behind Chilean invader #3 YA PRIMO in race 10, the Grade 2 Bowling Green. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I’ll also play $5 doubles singling him that start in the ninth (the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt) with #1 MITOLE and #4 FIRENZE FIRE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Grandview entry, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Ya Primo, Race 10

R1

Teachable Moment
Wild Weekend
Blacktop Legend

#3 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Takes a big drop for formidable connections in just his second start of the season. A return to his 2018 form would almost certainly be good enough to beat these; #8 WILD WEEKEND: Debuts for Joe Sharp and sports several solid works ahead of his unveiling. This barn has had success with firsters in maiden claimers, and he may be a square price; #6 BLACKTOP LEGEND: Cuts back in distance after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. His lone turf sprint to date was OK, and Rosario riding back is a plus.

R2

Rapido Gatta
Doll Collection
Quasar

#1 RAPIDO GATTA: Raced very wide when third last time out at Belmont. The rail draw, while not ideal, should ensure she covers less ground, and she seems to have enough early zip to establish position; #3 DOLL COLLECTION: Regally-bred daughter of Tapit and star sprinter Groupie Doll cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile at Churchill. The blinkers seem to have helped, and she may be on the improve; #7 QUASAR: Comes back to dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out and also adds blinkers. Her races two and three back were fine, and the recent clunker could mean a solid price.

R3

Flying P entry (MTO)
Mission Command
Spectrolite

#5 MISSION COMMAND: Clearly prefers the grass and relished a return to the lawn last month at Belmont. That race came at this level, and while this came up as a pretty salty race for the level, his best would make him a contender at a price; #8 SPECTROLITE: Drops in class for this event and certainly seems like the main speed in here. His lone start at this route was a win in a 2017 starter allowance, and he’s hit the board in 11 of 13 career outings; #6 SCOUT’S HONOR: Found himself on the lead last time out, and that’s not his game. The 10-year-old veteran is best when stalking the pace, and he may get that trip here.

R4

Grandview entry
Kowalski
Complexifier

GRANDVIEW ENTRY: Both #1 SHOPLIFTED and #1A SOVIET can win this, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two colts ran 1-2. I prefer the former, who fetched $800,000 earlier this year at auction and boasts a very strong gate drill on July 14th; #5 KOWALSKI: Ran pretty well when third in his debut, and this barn doesn’t usually have firsters ready to roll. His pedigree says he’ll get better with more experience; #7 COMPLEXIFIER: Will likely be a big price, as this barn’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. However, his workouts are sharp, and I think he has a big shot to outrun his odds.

R5

Control Group (MTO)
Emaraaty
Keep Quiet

#7 EMARAATY: Makes his first start in more than a year after coming over from Europe, where he ran against some of the best horses on the continent. His running lines are dotted with names like Expert Eye, U S Navy Flag, and Mendelssohn, and if he’s ready, he likely wins; #9 KEEP QUIET: Loves Saratoga and has run well in all four of his starts this season. This will be his first start for the Steve Asmussen barn, and he should be running well late; #2 FRONTIER MARKET: Won two in a row late last year before heading to the sidelines and merits respect for the Brown barn. If his stablemate isn’t 100%, he has a big shot.

R6

More Mischief
Makin’ Out
Flashpackinbarbie

#9 MORE MISCHIEF: Was second in her return to the races back in May and flashed talent as a 2-year-old. Her recent local drills look strong, and she may be able to rate off of what figures to be a fast early pace; #1 MAKIN’ OUT: Romped here last year, but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since September. She’s worked well of late and may be ready to run; #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE: Waltzed home by more than eight lengths in her debut at Aqueduct and earned a strong 77 Beyer Speed Figure. She’s been freshened up since then and may be ready to take a step forward at second asking.

R7

Economic Policy
Blanket of Roses
Are You Kitten Me

#5 ECONOMIC POLICY: Fetched $210,000 at auction in 2017 and is a half-brother to two winners. He’s bred to love two turns on turf and gets my nod in a tricky 2-year-old race; #2 BLANKET OF ROSES: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and is another that should like this journey. His dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Derby Kitten, and the presence of Javier Castellano doesn’t hurt; #6 ARE YOU KITTEN ME: Isn’t necessarily bred to be precocious, but he’s been working well for a very capable outfit and attracts Jose Ortiz. He’s cross-entered in a race at Ellis Park, but if he runs here, I think he’s a contender.

R8

Fortune’s Fool
Chateau
Overdeliver

#5 FORTUNE’S FOOL: Dueled through fast fractions last time out before being reeled in by a talented 3-year-old, and this seems like a weaker spot. Castellano rides back, and a repeat effort should be enough to get the job done; #4 CHATEAU: Reeled off three wins in a row not long ago and figures to be on or near the lead early on. He’d likely prefer a wet track, but his fast-track form is still fine; #9 OVERDELIVER: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He cuts back in distance and draws favorably here, but this seems a hair shorter than he wants to go.

R9

Mitole
Firenze Fire
Imperial Hint

#1 MITOLE: May be the best older male in training right now and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and there’s other early speed signed on, but anything close to his best would make him a formidable foe; #4 FIRENZE FIRE: Was fifth behind Mitole in the Grade 1 Met Mile, but shortens up and may get plenty of pace to run at. That convergence of factors may make him a contender at a square price; #3 IMPERIAL HINT: Looks to defend his title in this race, but may have lost a step from his 2018 form. He makes his first start since a third-place finish in Dubai here, and he’ll need to have his running shoes on.

R10

Ya Primo
Channel Maker
Arklow

#3 YA PRIMO: Makes his American debut for Chad Brown after establishing himself as one of the top horses in his native Chile. This doesn’t seem like a strong race for the level, and foreign invaders getting Lasix for the first time often take big steps forward; #5 CHANNEL MAKER: Ran fourth behind Bricks and Mortar, America’s top older male on turf, in the Grade 1 Manhattan and returns to defend his title in the Bowling Green. He likes this turf course, and there may be enough pace signed on to set up for him; #1 ARKLOW: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He was a neck behind Channel Maker in the Man o’ War and is another that would benefit from a fast pace.

R11

War of Will
Tacitus
Global Campaign

#6 WAR OF WILL: Ran like a tired horse in the Belmont, which was his sixth race in less than five months. He’s been freshened up for this event and could sit an ideal stalking trip, which would allow him to channel the form he showed winning the Preakness; #5 TACITUS: Was a good second in the Belmont and has won at this distance and two-turn route configuration before. He may want more early speed, and this isn’t the goal, but if he’s ready to run, he’ll be tough; #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Wired the field in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, which included eventual Belmont winner Sir Winston. He’s certainly got talent; the question is, does he want two turns?

R12

Surge Pricing
My Macho
Letterman

#5 SURGE PRICING: Won his debut and was fourth against winners last time out at Belmont. He adds blinkers and takes a big drop in class back to the claiming ranks, and he looms large in the Saturday finale; #4 MY MACHO: Raced wide last time out at Laurel and is another dropping in for a tag. This is his second start off the bench, and he’s won going two turns on turf before; #12 LETTERMAN: Faded to eighth in his first start against winners last time out, but won impressively two back at Aqueduct. That was a two-turn race, and he returns to that configuration here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/26/19)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Earlier this week, The Daily Racing Form reported that trainer Marcus Vitali was suspended for one year by officials at Delaware Park, and that he allegedly confiscated a package of suspected contraband. Shortly after the initial story broke, The Paulick Report added more details, reporting that Vitali dashed out of the room and somehow evaded security personnel.

I’m all for due process, especially in a sport where percentages of medications are measured in picograms and nanograms. Having said that, if this story is proven true, many racing jurisdictions have a lot of explaining to do regarding Vitali’s ability to have stalls and enter horses. Trainers who cheat give the ones who don’t a bad name, and at a time when racing is constantly under a microscope, shouldn’t we be doing all we can to clean up the sport?

NYRA has already shown an ability to bar trainers from running horses at Saratoga. I sincerely hope those in power do their due diligence and, if these details prove accurate, take appropriate action.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Ratajkowski settled for second, which turned doubles and Pick Threes into losing wagers. We dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against #3 COUNTENANCE in the opener. 3/5 just seems way too short. I’ll use #2 HANDLE WITH CARE, #5 G. T. SONIA, and #7 KNOW POINT GIVEN in $3 doubles that end with the #1/1A/1X entry and #8 ASSAULT BREAKER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18

– – – – –

BEST BET: Queen of Beas, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Know Point Given, Race 1

R1

Handle With Care
G. T. Sonia
Know Point Given

#2 HANDLE WITH CARE: Has run second in consecutive starts since coming back to the dirt. The cutback in distance to seven furlongs should suit her, and if you’re taking a stab against the likely favorite (as I am), she seems like a logical alternative; #5 G. T. SONIA: Returns to dirt and drops down in class for this event. A repeat of her race three back, when she ran second for a $30,000 tag, would put her right there; #7 KNOW POINT GIVEN: Is tough to endorse on top given her 0-for-19 career mark, but her recent form looks slightly sharper if you toss the wet-track races. Her two-back effort, when she was second against similar, was fine.

R2

Assault Breaker
Repole entry
Victory Built

#8 ASSAULT BREAKER: Ran well when second in his debut on dirt and goes to turf, which he’s bred to love. He holds an experience edge over most of these and seems like a formidable favorite; REPOLE ENTRY: I most prefer #1A MO READY, who flopped at 2/5 odds in his debut but is bred to like the lawn. If this race somehow gets rained off the turf, #1 MICROSECOND may be tough; #7 VICTORY BUILT: Is an intriguing price in his debut. He fetched $40,000 at auction earlier this year despite a pretty modest pedigree, and his 290 turf Tomlinson figure is above average.

R3

Missle Bomb (MTO)
I Can Do Anything
Bourbon in May

#6 I CAN DO ANYTHING: Was third in his first start against winners despite a far outside post last time out at Churchill Downs. He draws much better here and looks very tough; #8 BOURBON IN MAY: Makes his first start since January, when he was beaten three lengths in a stakes race at Gulfstream Park. His two-back maiden win was sharp, and he may have matured in his time off; #4 ALL SYSTEMS GO: Showed speed in a swiftly-run event downstate and figures to be prominent early on. The slight cutback in distance could help him here.

R4

Queen of Beas
Held Accountable
Nonsensical

#1 QUEEN OF BEAS: Exits the Grade 1 Acorn, where she chased the likes of Guarana and Serengeti Empress. She tries two turns for the first time, but comes up against what seems like a soft field for the level; #5 HELD ACCOUNTABLE: Has not run since December, but won two in a row late last year and may be capable on her best day. She’s worked well of late and may be a price; #3 NONSENSICAL: Exits a distant third-place finish in a minor stakes race at Delaware Park. She took advantage of a perfect trip two back at Belmont, and she may be on or near a reasonable pace early on.

R5

Tiz R Bella
Elizabeth Nicole
Wildcat Belle

#9 TIZ R BELLA: Has won two in a row coming into this race and may have simply been a dirt horse all along. The outside post should be a big help, and she’ll loom large if her Belmont form travels with her; #2 ELIZABETH NICOLE: Took a step forward for new connections last time out at Belmont and returns to her favorite track here. Carmouche rides back and figures to have her running hard out of the gate; #6 WILDCAT BELLE: Beat a number of these foes last time out at Belmont and seems to be an upward trajectory in form. Her best race is certainly good enough to win.

R6

Balon Rose
Ocean Fire
Monhegan

#9 BALON ROSE: Fetched $1.6 million at auction back in 2017 and was second in her debut earlier this year. She’s bred up and down for this distance and has every right to improve at second asking; #7 OCEAN FIRE: Made a strong middle move in her unveiling last month before flattening out late and fading to third. She’s another that should enjoy the added distance she gets in her second career start; #2 MONHEGAN: Has made a habit out of collecting minor checks in similar turf routes. She seems well-positioned to do that here as well given her stalking style and experience edge on most of her opponents.

R7

Righteous Ruby
It Was Considered
Slimey

#7 RIGHTEOUS RUBY: Has won two in a row and makes her first start for Danny Gargan, one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. This is a bit of a class test, but she’s in form and this barn must be respected; #5 IT WAS CONSIDERED: Was third behind my top pick last time out, but she may have needed that race coming off of a long layoff. She’s run well at this distance before and could be primed for an improved performance; #6 SLIMEY: Pulled off a 15-1 upset earlier in the meet when she rallied from far back in the slop. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

R8

Show Prince (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Dowse’s Beach

#6 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Has four wins in five local starts and merits respect on the drop in class. We figure to know his chances right out of the gate; if he breaks well, he’ll be tough, and if he doesn’t, well…; #4 DOWSE’S BEACH: Is another that has had a lot of success here, having won four of seven starts in upstate New York. Irad Ortiz, Jr., gets back aboard, and he piloted this gelding to three straight scores late last year; #8 BANANA THIEF: Won at this route a season ago and figures to be doing his best running late. He’s been competitive at this level in the past and would benefit from a speed duel.

R9

Looking At Bikinis
Endorsed
Highest Honors

#3 LOOKING AT BIKINIS: Comes into the Curlin undefeated in two starts, having most recently topped a solid allowance group downstate. The recent work jumps off the page, and two turns should not be an issue; #7 ENDORSED: Came off the bench running last time out, winning a six-furlong allowance at Belmont in his first start since flopping in the Grade 1 Champagne. He’s bred to love this route, and he graduated at first asking here last summer; #8 HIGHEST HONORS: Won a swiftly-run maiden race last time out, and the runner-up has since come back to graduate as well. He completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown.

R10

Later Cat (MTO)
Awesome Adversary
Prince Halo

#5 AWESOME ADVERSARY: Was second in a similar spot last time out, and this seems like a “now or never” spot for this 15-start maiden. He’s taken a step forward since being switched to the turf, and gets my nod in a challenging race to handicap; #8 PRINCE HALO: Was fifth in the race my top pick exits and tries two turns on grass for the first time. He’s got the running style to appreciate this route, and Luis Saez signing on is a plus; #9 THE GRAND CANAL: Was beaten just a length at Belmont last time and came running late despite a wide trip. This draw is another one that’s less than ideal, but two turns could be what he’s looking for.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/25/19)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $835

I was at Saratoga every day during the 2013 season. That season saw a dramatic uptick in the number of races run at The Spa, and the effect on those working on the premises was noticeable. The strangest initiative of all involved running 11-race programs on Thursdays. Most fans left by around the ninth race, and from the press box, several of us could count the number of fans left on the apron for the late double.

There are 11 races on the Thursday program, due in large part to the cancellation of Saturday’s card. I understand that there’s some ground to make up, but this seems more like an endurance test than anything else. I wish there was a better solution, and I sincerely hope this is a one-time thing.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Our Pick Four ticket was null and void after two legs of the sequence were taken off the turf.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll try to get some value out of my best bet of the day. That’s #6 RATAJKOWSKI in the third race. I’ll play $5 doubles starting in the second race that single her and kick off with #2 PERSIAN QUEEN and #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER. Additionally, I’ll start $3 doubles with Ratajkowski that end with #3 BAIL OUT, #4 THIRD EDITION, #6 SHENNAN, and #7 NOBLE SPIRIT in the fourth. Finally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the second race that uses all of these horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Ratajkowski, Race 3
LONGSHOT: Tizaprincessa, Race 6

R1

Vosne Romanee
Bedrock
Gibralfaro

#6 VOSNE ROMANEE: Makes his American debut after running against some high-quality steeplechasers overseas. He gets Lasix for the first time, and if he channels his 2018 form, he’ll be very tough; #9 BEDROCK: Also debuts in the U.S. and gets Lasix for highly-regarded connections. The layoff is a concern, but his best effort is certainly enough to win; #12 GIBRALFARO: Misfired in the Grade 1 Iroquois, but ran well in stakes company for three starts in a row prior to that. A return to that form would make him a contender at a price.

R2

Wedontbelieveher
Persian Queen
Polished Copper

#5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez and comes in with an impressive local work tab. Offspring of young sire Bayern look like runners, and she’ll likely be favored; #2 PERSIAN QUEEN: Completes a powerful one-two punch for Rodriguez. Like her stablemate, she seems well-meant in her unveiling, especially off of a strong recent drill; #4 POLISHED COPPER: Debuts for a barn that’s done very well with a limited number of starters this meet. She’s worked consistently here and could be ready to go.

R3

Ratajkowski
Lucky Move
Paved With Gold

#6 RATAJKOWSKI: Tries winners for the first time, but it sure seems like she’s caught a weak race for the level. She’s bred to love two turns, and she figures to be prominent all the way around; #1 LUCKY MOVE: Returns to the state-bred ranks after running third in a starter allowance race at Churchill. She’s run well around two turns before and would benefit from any moisture left in the track; #7 PAVED WITH GOLD: Comes back to dirt after showing a bit of speed last time out on turf at Belmont. She’s another that should like two turns, and it’s tough to poke holes in the connections.

R4

Bail Out
Noble Spirit
Third Edition

#3 BAIL OUT: Stretches out to a marathon distance and has the pedigree to love such a trip. He’s been close many times, and this might be a “now or never” type of spot; #7 NOBLE SPIRIT: Likely needed his 2019 debut, which was his first start since September. This barn does well with runners second off of long layoffs, and he should be fully-cranked here; #4 THIRD EDITION: Was victimized by a slow pace earlier this month and could get a better setup here. His running lines feature several next-out winners, and he could get a piece of this at a price.

R5

Pyron
Dark Money
Hawaiian Noises

#3 PYRON: Was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 two starts ago and now drops in for a claiming tag. Anything close to his best race would make him very, very tough; #6 DARK MONEY: Makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez following a claim late last month. He sat a perfect trip last time out against a weaker group, but figures to have more opposition up front early on; #1 HAWAIIAN NOISES: Won a stakes race earlier this year at Turfway, but was most recently beaten at 2/5 odds in an allowance at Belterra Park. He’s a contender on his best day, but it’s fair to wonder if that time has passed.

R6

Righteous Ruby (MTO)
Joy of Treasure
Tizaprincessa

#11 JOY OF TREASURE: Just missed last time out at Churchill Downs and figures to be flying late. This race seems to have a lot of early speed signed on, and such a scenario would set things up perfectly for the morning line favorite; #10 TIZAPRINCESSA: Didn’t break well last time out at Belmont, but has a history of making up ground in the stretch. It’s encouraging that Joel Rosario rides back, and I think she’s got a shot at a big price; #1 SEASIDE DANCER: Has reeled off four wins in a row and seems like one of the main speed horses in the field. This is a class jump on a new surface, but he could be dangerous if he’s left alone on the front end.

R7

Risky Mischief
Aubrey Tate
Playtone

#3 RISKY MISCHIEF: Fetched $350,000 at auction last summer and has worked well for a trainer that can get horses ready to go right away. This isn’t an easy spot, but she seems prepared for her debut; #11 AUBREY TATE: Was bet ahead of her planned debut, but was scratched at the gate. As mentioned earlier, offspring of Bayern look like runners, and she’s a threat if she draws in off the AE list; #4 PLAYTONE: Has worked well at Keeneland and ships in for an astute barn having a strong year. It’s a bit early to tell if offspring of Belmont winner Tonalist want to sprint, but the works indicate she may be precocious.

R8

South of the Shore (MTO)
Mascha
Maid To Remember

#7 MASCHA: Makes her American debut for Chad Brown and showed plenty of potential overseas. She was second in a Group 3 last summer, and that race was won by multiple graded stakes winner Homerique; #2 MAID TO REMEMBER: Has finished second in both of her American starts, including the Grade 3 Eatontown at Monmouth. She’ll be running well late; the question is, will there be enough pace to set up for her?; #4 ENGLISH SOUL: Ran a solid second in her seasonal debut last month at Belmont and could improve second off the bench. This isn’t an easy spot, but she won two stakes races last summer and could be improving. DIRT SELECTIONS: SOUTH OF THE SHORE, ENGLISH SOUL, NONSENSICAL.

R9

Gold for the King
Celtic Chaos
Saratoga Giro

#1 GOLD FOR THE KING: Returns to the state-bred ranks after tackling the likes of Catalina Cruiser downstate. He’s got enough speed to press the pace, which will be helpful given the rail draw; #2 CELTIC CHAOS: Likes Saratoga and has a history of doing his best running in the final quarter-mile. His last-out win was impressive, and the 100 Beyer Speed Figure represents a new career-high; #3 SARATOGA GIRO: Merits a look in the exotics given the likely race shape. There isn’t much early speed signed on, which means this longshot could have a chance to dictate terms going into the far turn.

R10

Way Early
Appealing Briefs
Macagone

#4 WAY EARLY: Hasn’t run since December, but raced in several big spots a season ago. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and the most recent workout indicates he may be maturing as a 4-year-old; #6 APPEALING BRIEFS: Has never finished worse than third in four starts at Saratoga and stretches back out to a two-turn trip, one that should play to his strengths. Jose Ortiz gets the call, and we may get a price; #5 MACAGONE: Makes his second start for Jason Servis, and runs here off of a second-place finish at Monmouth. At eight years old, he may be slightly past his peak, but it helps that the winner of his most recent race has come back to win again.

R11

Memories Eternal
Two Graces
Molly’s Nighthawk

#2 MEMORIES ETERNAL: Stalked a fast pace against maiden special weight foes and gets some class relief in this spot. It’s a very tough finale, but there doesn’t seem to be much speed signed on, which could play right into her hands; #6 TWO GRACES: Is another dropping in class, and her lone start at this level was a solid third at Aqueduct behind a next-out winner. If an unexpected speed duel ensues, she could stand to benefit; #1 MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK: Has stepped forward in two starts this season and stretches out to two turns. The rider switch to Junior Alvarado is noteworthy.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/24/19)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $835

Generally speaking, as a handicapper, I strive for three winners per day. Three winners per day, over the course of 40 days, translates to 120 winners, which is usually enough to contend for the meet’s handicapping title. If you’d told me I’d be one off of that pace through eight days, despite a doughnut and a one-win Opening Day, I’d have probably been OK with it.

All of this is a prelude to me saying that I want Liam Durbin’s feed and medical records examined, pronto. This man is putting on a handicapping clinic. What he’s done so far this meet is pretty special, and we’ve all got some going to do in order to reel him in. Thankfully, we’ve got plenty of time, but we might need it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Sequin ran second in the seventh, which spoiled exactas and doubles that had the horse on top. In total, we dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: This is tricky, as it rained pretty hard earlier in the week and we may be off the turf. Assuming we’re staying on the turf, I’ll play an early Pick Four that starts in the third race (remember, the opener is a steeplechase) and singles my best bet of the day in the payoff leg. My 50-cent ticket reads as follows: 2,5,8 with 2,8,10 with 2,4,5,8,9 with 7.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

– – – – –

BEST BET: Alfie Solomons, Race 6
LONGSHOT: More Than Silver, Race 3

R1

Sportswear
Elucidation
Belisarius

#9 SPORTSWEAR: Has won two in a row since going to the steeplechase ranks and goes out for Jonathan Sheppard in a wide-open renewal of the Jonathan Kiser Novice. His two wins have been sharp, and he gets weight from many of these; #7 ELUCIDATION: Makes his second start off a long layoff and won both starts over fences a season ago. This may be a tougher group, but his return was fine and he may still be improving; #10 BELISARIUS: Comes in off of two clunkers, but his 2018 form was sharp and included a strong second in a Grade 3 event. If he channels that form, he could be competitive at a price.

R2

The Honest Toun
Golani Brigade
Larsen entry

#5 THE HONEST TOUN: Rallied when third in his debut last month for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. Irad Ortiz rides back, and he ran like he’ll appreciate the extra distance he gets in this spot; #9 GOLANI BRIGADE: Was beaten a half-length by my top pick last time out, when he was a one-paced fourth. He’s another that may improve with experience and an added furlong; LARSEN ENTRY: I prefer #1 FREAKY STYLEY, who has worked well ahead of his debut. Seven furlongs is a tricky distance to debut at, but this barn can pop at a price with first-time starters.

R3

Beyond Brown (MTO)
Jen’s Battle
More Than Silver

#2 JEN’S BATTLE: Ran third in her debut despite checking shortly after the break. She’s bred up and down to go long on turf, and she gets a chance to do exactly that for a barn due to get off the duck sooner rather than later; #5 MORE THAN SILVER: Is another bred to love the lawn and will almost certainly be a square price. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Mineshaft mare, and this barn has done fairly well with debuting runners over the past few years; #8 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY: Has been working lights-out for Team Funny Cide and will almost certainly be favored here. If there’s an issue here, it’s that this barn hasn’t had much luck with firsters. DIRT SELECTIONS: BEYOND BROWN, JEN’S BATTLE, SKY KITTEN.

R4

Annals of Time
Devamani
King Zachary

#1 ANNALS OF TIME: Stretches out in distance after running second in his comeback race last month at Belmont. He should be better-meant in this spot, and this length should be more to his liking; #10 DEVAMANI: Has stepped forward this season with two wins and a second in three 2019 starts. He’ll be running well late and could use a solid early pace; #8 KING ZACHARY: Has run in some big spots over the last two years and tries turf for the first time. He’s bred to like it, merits a look at a price, and would also be very imposing if this was rained off the turf.

R5

Crea’s Bklyn Law
Giant Boo Boo
Indigo Yankee

#9 CREA’S BKLYN LAW: Improved first off the claim when second against similar downstate. He’s been freshened since then, should be running well late, and merits a tepid nod in a wide-open event; #8 GIANT BOO BOO: Ran well here twice a season ago and goes out for a barn that’s off to a strong start at the meet. He’s got plenty of early speed, but can also sit just off the pace, which could be helpful; #2 INDIGO YANKEE: Ran a decent fourth first off the claim at Churchill Downs and drops in class a bit for this race. He won here last year and has shown an ability to close from far back.

R6

Alfie Solomons
Green entry
More Like It

#7 ALFIE SOLOMONS: Fetched $285,000 at auction and has been working very well ahead of his debut. Wesley Ward’s one of the best in the game with firsters, and he’s a full brother to world-class sprinter World of Trouble; #1 ANOTHER MIRACLE: Was second in his debut and figures to take a lot of money due to the presence of sire American Pharoah. A repeat of his debut makes him a contender; the question is, does he want turf?; #2 MORE LIKE IT: Is bred for turf and could hit the board at a price. His recent workouts here are solid, and the 331 turf Tomlinson number jumps off the page.

R7

Six Percent
Rinaldi
Funny Guy

#8 SIX PERCENT: Has improved significantly in each of his three career starts and takes a big jump up in class. However, he’s got some turf pedigree and can close, which should come in handy in a race with plenty of early speed signed on; #3 RINALDI: Upset a similar-quality group last time out at Belmont and tries two turns for the first time. Offspring of Posse don’t necessarily want distance, but any improvement off of his last race would make him tough; #9 FUNNY GUY: Took to turf well when second behind my second choice last time out. He’s another that may like a fast pace.

R8

Mia Mischief
Chalon
Ours to Run

#4 MIA MISCHIEF: May be hitting her stride as a 4-year-old and looms large in this spot. She won a Grade 1 two back, topped a talented field last time out, and ran well here twice last year; #2 CHALON: Hasn’t finished out of the exacta since September of 2017 and cuts back to six furlongs, which seems like her ideal trip. She was beaten a head in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and seems like the main danger; #6 OURS TO RUN: Has reeled off six wins in a row and ships in for Larry Jones, who generally means business when he makes a trip to upstate New York. It’s a big class test, but she’s won 12 of 20 lifetime outings, beat my top pick two starts ago, and attracts John Velazquez.

R9

Leah’s Dream (MTO)
Enthusiastic Gal
Violent Times

#6 ENTHUSIASTIC GAL: Was outclassed in Grade 3 company last time out but drops back to the right level here. She had two wins and two seconds in her four starts prior to that effort, and she figures to be rolling late; #8 VIOLENT TIMES: Comes back to turf after running third behind a pair of next-out winners last month at Gulfstream. She was second at this route last summer and may be up close early on; #7 MENTALITY: Has lots of early speed and wired the field last time out at Belmont. That was her first start since November, so she could be in even better form here. DIRT SELECTIONS: LEAH’S DREAM, MISS MYSTIQUE, VICTORIAS FIRE.

R10

Risky Mandate
Stifle Yourself
Fair Regis

#3 RISKY MANDATE: Debuted with a bang last month at Churchill, when she cruised home by more than six lengths despite not being fully extended. She facts another full field here, but the local work looks sharp and she seems ready to go; #11 STIFLE YOURSELF: Graduated at first asking over a fast Belmont strip last month, but the recent works indicate that she’s no fluke. The outside draw could help her, as could her tactical speed; #2 FAIR REGIS: Was claimed last time out by an astute outfit and is protected in this event. This may be a bit long for her, but a move forward off of her last-out victory could mean she picks up a check.