bankroll | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/26/18

Posted on August 25, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,356.20

A lot of us are very quick to vilify stewards when it appears they get decisions wrong. I think it’s fair to point out when they get things right, especially on big stages.

This was the case in Saturday’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign, where Abel Tasman and Elate made contact in mid-stretch. Social media was split on the final ruling of “no change,” but I thought this was the right call. Abel Tasman did come out, but Elate also came in a bit, and it sure seemed (judging by the head-on) that the eventual winner got the worst of the contact. Either way, it was a fantastic race between two top-notch 4-year-olds, and they’re likely to face off again in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff later this year.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I wanted to get some value out of Way Early in the second race, and I did that. Despite that one prevailing at even money, the $6 exacta returned $150 (thanks to longshot Appealing Briefs running second), and we also got a few bucks out of a consolation double payoff when Silver Dust scratched at the gate. In total, the $32 post-scratch investment returned a tidy $159.75.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against the likely favorite in the third race, as I can’t endorse #4 PARAUARI at short odds given his two duds downstate. I much prefer likely second choice #3 ZORZOR, and I’ll keep things simple with a $30 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Enliven, Race 5
Longshot: Iron Mast, Race 10

Can’tweallgetalong
Espresso Caliente
Flatexcel

#5 CAN’TWEALLGETALONG: Rallied for third in his first start against winners and could benefit from the likely race shape in this spot. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this one’s usual race could leave him in position to capitalize on that; #8 ESPRESSO CALIENTE: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops significantly for this race and may sit a perfect stalking trip from his outside post. Both factors could be enough to wake him up; #2 FLATEXCEL: Went too fast early on last time out and faded badly late. He cuts back in distance and may be the fastest of this bunch out of the gate.

Black Dynamite
Speedy Solution
Miss Rombauer

#12 BLACK DYNAMITE: Merits a long look if she draws in off the AE list. She’s by top turf sire More Than Ready and is a half to Grade 1 winner Killer Graces, who was very precocious; #4 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Ran like a filly that wants to go long in her debut, where she was beaten less than two lengths despite a rough trip. Ward’s numbers with horses stretching out aren’t great, but improvement is logical at second asking; #8 MISS ROMBAUER: Fetched $375,000 at auction earlier this year and looms large for powerhouse connections. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because it’s not easy to debut going two turns and there are no five-furlong works on the tab.

Zorzor
Parauari
Acoustic

#3 ZORZOR: Drops way down in class for this event, and his best race would make him very tough to beat. He topped allowance foes two back at Churchill Downs, and his flexibility is a big plus; #4 PARAUARI: Is another dropping down in class, and he does so for aggressive connections after a pair of misfires downstate. He hasn’t done much running since coming to the U.S., though, and there won’t be much value to speak of; #1 ACOUSTIC: Hasn’t won in a while, but did take a step forward last time out in his first start for Jason Servis. He was beaten just a half-length that day at this level, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

Maho Bay
Curiousncuriouser
Nocturnal Mission

#7 MAHO BAY: Was a good second in her local debut last time out and has worked well since then. That was a fast race, and a repeat performance would make her formidable (especially given the cushy outside draw); #3 CURIOUSNCURIOUSER: Missed the break in that race, but romped two back at Belmont in her first start for Chris Englehart. A cleaner break here would make her a contender; #1 NOCTURNAL MISSION: Hasn’t won since her debut in February of 2017, but her local debut wasn’t bad and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back in this spot.

Enliven
Vomba (2nd dam G1W Cash Run)
Angelia

#8 ENLIVEN: Is out of the Grade 1-winning mare It’s Tricky, which makes her a half to multiple graded stakes-winner Enticed. She’s worked well, and Joe Bravo taking the call could signal that it’s go time; #4 VOMBA: Makes her debut for an outfit that’s very sharp with first-time starters. She’s by all-world sire Candy Ride, and her female family includes second dam Cash Run, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; #3 ANGELIA: Will almost certainly take money based on the Pletcher/Velazquez connections. Her works are OK, and she’s bred to be a runner, but it’s been a very quiet summer for this barn by its lofty standards.

Lunaire
Dr. Edgar
Holiday Bonus

#9 LUNAIRE: Hasn’t won in a while, but could get the benefit of a race with plenty of early speed drawn to his inside. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 DR. EDGAR: Has had his issues, given the layoff lines, but he hasn’t run a bad race in more than two years and comes in off a strong second in his first start for Barclay Tagg. He’s got speed, but can also rate a bit, which opens up the possibility of an ideal stalking trip; #1 HOLIDAY BONUS: Hasn’t found the winner’s circle of late, but cuts back after going much longer last time out. This seems more like the trip he wants, and he’s another that could be moving the right way late.

Myhartblongstodady
Chestnut Street
Way Smart

#7 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY: Missed by a nose at this level last time out, and she nearly got the job done after rallying from 10th in a 12-horse field. She’s drawn favorably here and would benefit from others showing early zip; #11 CHESTNUT STREET: Is the other Chad Brown runner, and she makes her first start against winners. She ran well earlier in the meet and could improve, but the post position is a red flag; #8 WAY SMART: Was third in the race my top pick exits after probably moving a bit too soon. Joe Bravo hops aboard, and he’s made the most of his mounts to this point in the meet.

Proven Reserves
Souper Tapit
Secret House

#6 PROVEN RESERVES: Bounced back from a disappointing run two back with a daylight win earlier in the meet. If he can string two strong races together, he’ll strictly be the one to beat; #3 SOUPER TAPIT: Has run two sharp races in back-to-back off-the-turf events this season. He hasn’t won in more than a year, and this barn is cold, but the last race was strong enough that I can’t ignore him; #5 SECRET HOUSE: Was second as an odds-on favorite last time out and was claimed by Tom Amoss that day. His best race puts him in the mix, but it’s been a long summer for Amoss, who’s 0 for 12 at the meet as of this writing.

Morticia
Epping Forest
Tillie’s Lily

#8 MORTICIA: Was one of many that was likely compromised by the soft going in the Caress Stakes last time out. Her usual race is certainly good enough to win, and we may get a price given the large field; #12 EPPING FOREST: Has won three of her last four coming into this race and figures to be running well late. She may have been my top pick if not for the horrendous post position, and she could very well overcome that; #5 TILLIE’S LILY: Has won four races in a row and will likely go very fast out of the gate. She may not be alone up front, but there’s a chance she’s faster than her opposition and will have plenty left for the stretch run.

R10

Iron Mast
Joe’s Smokin Gun
Powerstroke

#10 IRON MAST: Debuts in this spot for a sharp first-out trainer and is bred to be a solid turf horse. Given the lackluster field, that may be good enough to put him into the winner’s circle at a bit of a price; #8 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Is 0 for 12 lifetime and has run second three times in a row coming into this event. He’ll likely be forwardly placed, and that could help, but it’s tough to have too much confidence given the career record; #6 POWERSTROKE: Looks like the main early speed in this race, where he’ll come back to the turf course. I’m not sure how far he wants to go, but the inner turf does tend to move speed horses up a bit.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/25/18 (Travers Day)

Posted on August 24, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,228.45

It’s Travers Day, which usually means some joke about NYRA’s ridiculous (and selectively-enforced) policy against running on the grounds. However, I’m breaking tradition to deal with something much more important, on a day where I hopefully have the audience to do it.

Over the past few weeks, journalism at some colleges and universities has come under attack. One school has merged journalism and public relations into the same major. Another (which I wrote about at length this past week) has gone so far as to restructure its student newspaper to essentially be a parrot for administrators and their missions. I highly doubt these schools are alone in taking these steps, and I want to do something about it.

If you’re an aspiring journalist/writer/reporter, and you’re looking for advice, my Twitter direct message box is open. I specifically opened it up for this purpose, and I’m happy to provide some sort of guidance to anyone who wants it. If you’re out there, and you’re somehow affected by the nonsense some administrators think is standard operating procedure, feel free to reach out (@AndrewChampagne).

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Kharafa winning may have been a feel-good moment given his advanced age, but it knocked us out of the Grand Slam (not like it was going to pay much, though). We dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I think the stakes races are a bit chalky today, so I’ll focus on the early part of the program. My plays come in the second race, where I think there’s a way to extract some value out of #4 WAY EARLY. I’ll play $6 exactas using him above #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN, #6 IDES OF ARCH, and #10 APPEALING BRIEFS, as well as $3 exactas with him behind those three. Finally, I’ll single Way Early in $5 doubles that end with #1 TOMMY T and #8 SILVER DUST in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $37

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: City of Light, Race 9
Longshot: Bird’s Eye View, Race 5

Puttheglassdown
Greyes Creek
Mischievous Bird

#5 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN: Debuted with a strong second to Nitrous, one of the better 2-year-olds on the grounds. We won’t get the 19-1 odds he was that day, but if he steps forward, he’ll be tough to beat; #1 GREYES CREEK: Fetched $850,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked like a good horse. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a debuting runner, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; #2 MISCHIEVOUS BIRD: Represents local racing institution Marylou Whitney and has been working very well for trainer Norm Casse. Offspring of Into Mischief tend to be precocious, and if you like him, you may get a bit of a price.

Way Early
New Jersey John
Ides of Arch

#4 WAY EARLY: Drops into a first-level allowance after chasing graded stakes foes in each of his last two starts. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and his usual race should beat this bunch; #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN: Was second at this level as a 24-1 shot earlier in the meet and won two of his three previous starts since coming off the bench. This barn hasn’t started many runners, but all five starters have hit the board; #6 IDES OF ARCH: Rallied to be third in his first start since November downstate, and his lone win came over this turf course. There’s some pace signed on in this race, and he could come running late for a piece of it.

Tommy T
Silver Dust
Hollywood Star

#1 TOMMY T: Came off the bench running earlier in the meet, when he was second in a swift seven-furlong event. He’ll likely show speed from the rail, and it’s encouraging to see Rosario ride back; #8 SILVER DUST: Was fourth in that race, but likely went too fast early on. He’s worked well since and could be ripe for a bounce-back effort; #6 HOLLYWOOD STAR: Was third when cutting back to a sprint distance off of a freshening. The extra sixteenth could help him, and he may come running late at a price.

Digital Footprint
Noble Nebraskan
Social Paranoia

#3 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Was a late-running second in his unveiling, which came at a two-turn distance. It’s tough to debut at such a route, and he wasn’t helped by the slow pace set in front of him; #14 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: May not draw in, but if he does, I need to use him. He’s bred up and down to be a good turf horse, and I’ve picked him three or four times this meet. One of these days, he’s going to run, right?; #7 SOCIAL PARANOIA: Goes to the turf and is bred to like it. He’s by solid turf sire Street Boss, and his 319 turf Tomlinson is one of the top such numbers in the field.

Bird’s Eye View
Red Knight
Classic Covey

#2 BIRD’S EYE VIEW: Seems to have turned a corner from age three to age four. All three of his starts this year have shown significant improvement from his 2017 form, and he was a close second behind stakes-quality runner Patterson Cross last time out at Belmont; #4 RED KNIGHT: Has yet to miss the exacta in six career starts and showed a bit of tactical speed last time out. He’s one-half of a solid one-two punch for trainer Bill Mott, who’s had a good meet; #5 CLASSIC COVEY: Is the other Mott runner, and he’s chased some of the top turf horses on the East Coast in his last three starts. This class drop should help, although it’s a bit concerning that he hasn’t found a way to win since October.

Promises Fulfilled
Still Having Fun
Firenze Fire

#1 PROMISES FULFILLED: May have been a one-turn horse all along. He ran a huge race in the Grade 3 Amsterdam, and while the potential for a bounce does exist, a repeat of that race would make him incredibly tough; #7 STILL HAVING FUN: Came from well back to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens over several horses that also show up here (including my top pick). I doubt he’ll get that kind of setup again here, but he’s worked well, Rosario rides back, and he’d certainly benefit if my top pick isn’t gifted an easy lead; #8 FIRENZE FIRE: Ran a colossal race in the Grade 3 Dwyer, but I’m a bit skeptical he can repeat it. His best races have come at Belmont, where he also won last year’s Grade 1 Champagne, and that was such a huge improvement over his previous 2018 form that I’m skeptical he can reproduce that form (though he’ll be formidable if he does).

Abel Tasman
Elate
Farrell

#1 ABEL TASMAN: Got back in the winner’s circle in emphatic fashion when romping in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes Day. She won the Coaching Club American Oaks here last year, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, she’s definitely the one to beat; #6 ELATE: Came back running in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, where she overpowered a questionable field going a 10-furlong distance she’s shown she loves. She won last year’s Grade 1 Alabama here and will get plenty of pace to rate behind; #5 FARRELL: Led all the way in the Grade 3 Shuvee and generally runs the same race every time out. She likely won’t be alone on the front end, but when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

Finley’sluckycharm
Marley’s Freedom
Lewis Bay

#5 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM: Won the Grade 2 Honorable Miss off a bit of a freshening and looms large here. For a top-level sprint, there’s not a ton of early speed signed on, so she could sit a picture-perfect trip; #7 MARLEY’S FREEDOM: Ships east for the Bob Baffert barn and merits respect solely off of that fact. She’s won three in a row, including two graded stakes races, but her starts at seven furlongs haven’t been quite as impressive as her efforts going shorter; #6 LEWIS BAY: Took advantage in the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses when main foe American Gal did not fire. She won by 5 1/2 lengths that day, and a repeat performance would almost certainly get her a piece of it here.

City of Light
C Z Rocket
Limousine Liberal

#8 CITY OF LIGHT: Ships east for this event after a strong campaign to date. This seven-furlong trip hits him right between the eyes, and he’s already won a pair of Grade 1 events at this trip; #6 C Z ROCKET: Seems to have gotten stronger from age three to age four, and won a minor stakes last time out in impressive fashion. Toss the Grade 1 Malibu, and you’re left with a horse that’s won four of five starts for a high-percentage outfit; #1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL: Has repeatedly shown that this is his best distance. He prevailed in the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship last time out, but must once again work out a trip from a tricky inside post.

R10

Sadler’s Joy
Spring Quality
Funtastic

#10 SADLER’S JOY: Likely wasn’t helped by the soft going in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, but he was still beaten just a half-length in a race that did not set up for his running style. He won this event last year, and a repeat seems within his grasp; #2 SPRING QUALITY: Won the Grade 1 Manhattan, which has proven to be a very strong race. He won’t be 18-1 today, unfortunately, and the distance is a bit of an unknown, but the versatility he’s shown is a big plus; #3 FUNTASTIC: Has shown significant talent since being stretched out to extended turf routes. He wired the field in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth, and while there were some circumstances in that race that didn’t help other runners (namely oppressive heat), there’s also a chance this one’s developed into a top-notch marathoner.

R11

Good Magic
Gronkowski
Mendelssohn

#9 GOOD MAGIC: Was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth and has trained well since shipping to upstate New York. There’s a chance this distance is a bit far for him, but if he repeats his last-out effort, I think he’s the most likely winner; #3 GRONKOWSKI: Rallied to be second behind Justify in the Belmont Stakes, a race that doubled as his American debut. He was sidelined with a minor injury earlier in the summer, but he’s working well and would benefit from a speed duel; #8 MENDELSSOHN: Almost certainly went too fast early on in the Grade 3 Dwyer, where horse-for-course Firenze Fire romped. His Kentucky Derby effort is a throw-out, and I think it’s encouraging that he’s been shipped back across the Atlantic for another shot at this level.

R12

A Raving Beauty
Proctor’s Ledge
Quidura

#1 A RAVING BEAUTY: Won two in a row before being beaten less than a length by next-out Grade 1 Beverly D. winner Sistercharlie in the Grade 1 Diana. She’s not an easy horse to ride, and I’m not crazy about the post, but her best race beats these; #3 PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Had a troubled trip in the Diana, but has shown an affinity for this turf course and is reunited with John Velazquez, who piloted her to her two top efforts of the season. It does help that there’s some speed signed on; #5 QUIDURA: May have needed the race last time out, one that doubled as her first start in nine months. She’s won a pair of graded stakes races and was beaten a head by Lady Eli in last year’s Diana on this turf course.

R13

American Rule (MTO)
Azzedine
Victor Lounge

#5 AZZEDINE: Drops further down the class ladder after misfiring at 7/5 against $75,000 maiden claimers earlier in the meet. He didn’t have the best of trips that day, and this seems like a “now or never” spot; #9 VICTOR LOUNGE: Has shown ample early speed in several starts at this level and returns to a two-turn route of ground. He’s run several of his better races at such a configuration, and he could get brave if given an easy lead; #11 SPRING ON CURLIN: Has certainly had plenty of chances, but was a fast-closing fourth when dropped to this level last time out. That was over a yielding surface that may have dulled his late kick a bit, and he could improve at a price over firm going. DIRT SELECTIONS: AMERICAN RULE, UNCLE LARRY, WISELY.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/24/18

Posted on August 23, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,252.45

Several representatives of the Copake Country Club will be in attendance at Saratoga Race Course this afternoon. I was at the gathering they held on Travers Eve last year, and even without the Scots that were in attendance a season ago, this year’s trip promises to be a fun one.

One note to those people: If your reigning, defending, undisputed club champion even so much as thinks about running a tournament again, immediately revoke his bar privileges and/or whack him in the knee with a 6-iron repeatedly until he reconsiders. His son worries about him and is tired of pointing out that such a responsibility is a reminder of the old axiom, “no good deed goes unpunished.”

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: It only takes one score to make up for 29 days of horrible wagers. Fixed Point wired the field in the finale and brought home a Pick Four that returned $856.25 for our $40 investment.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: This is a program fit for the Grand Slam, as there’s a heavy favorite in the payoff leg and sizable fields in the earlier legs. My $2 ticket starts in the seventh and looks like this: 1,4,6 with 2,7 with 2,3 with 6. On its own, one $2 combination may not pay much, but if I hit it multiple times, I can extract some value out of #6 OFFERING PLAN, who may be odds-on in the West Point.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Offering Plan, Race 10
Longshot: Speightful Kitten, Race 6

Mister Muy Bien (MTO)
Rice entry
Pipes

RICE ENTRY: Either #1 BEACHSIDE or #1A SOUNDS GOOD could win, but I slightly prefer the latter. Both are bred for turf success, but Sounds Good is probably bred to be more of a sprinter, while his stablemate may want a bit more ground; #3 PIPES: Debuted running third in an off-the-turf event last month and is bred to like the lawn. He may have gotten something out of the debut, and Rosario rides back for Contessa (whose barn has heated up a bit of late); #7 ANALYZETHISANDTHAT: Goes back to the turf and faces state-breds for the first time after two OK runs against open company at Monmouth Park. It’s worth noting that Garcia comes up from the shore for the mount. DIRT SELECTIONS: MISTER MUY BIEN, PIPES, ANALYZETHISANDTHAT.

H Man
Candy Zip
Freud’s Affair

#4 H MAN: Broke a long winless drought with a victory last time out and was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. There’s a ton of early speed signed on, which could set things up for his late kick; #5 CANDY ZIP: Improved last time out off a dud two back and could take another step forward here. He cuts back in distance and doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #3 FREUD’S AFFAIR: Didn’t fire here earlier in the meet but may have been compromised by the sloppy track. His fast track form is fine, and if he channels that, he could hit the board at a price.

Evaluator
Sea Foam
Speke

#1 EVALUATOR: Ran a big race here last month when he closed to be second on a track that was tilted towards speed. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but there’s a lot of speed signed on, which should set things up for his late kick; #7 SEA FOAM: Beat a number of these runners last time out at Finger Lakes in a race that doubled as his two-turn debut. A repeat effort gives him a shot, but it’s unlikely that he gets an easy lead here; #4 SPEKE: Didn’t break well at all last time out and adds blinkers today. The race shape doesn’t favor his front-running style, but he’s certainly eligible to improve off of his most recent effort.

Shak’s Hidden Gem
Shady Shady Shady
Mensa Member

#3 SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM: Was fourth at 32-1 in her debut going shorter earlier in the meet. She’s by Shackleford and out of a Tiznow mare, so she’s bred to go long; #10 SHADY SHADY SHADY: Was second in her unveiling last month and is another that may want more distance. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s due to the far outside post; #7 MENSA MEMBER: Fetched $200,000 last summer and debuts for powerhouse connections. She could be a runner, but the lack of a turf work is pretty puzzling.

Bankit
La Fuerza
Bustin to Be Loved

#5 BANKIT: Was impressive in victory earlier in the meet, when he toyed with state-bred maidens following a second-place finish in open company. A repeat performance would likely make him the one to beat; #7 LA FUERZA: Is 2 for 2, and both of his wins have come by daylight. He hasn’t faced the strongest fields, but the last two works look sharp and it wouldn’t be shocking if he was still improving: #4 BUSTIN TO BE LOVED: Wired a field of maidens at 19-1 earlier in the meet. He’ll likely go early once again, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride him back.

Stoney Bennett (MTO)
Banana Thief
Speightful Kitten

#9 BANANA THIEF: Picked up the pieces last time out when winning a photo finish in a turf sprint that fell apart late. This race should have a similar shape to it, and a repeat effort could get him another win; #4 SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN: Broke dead last in his first start since November, and that meant he lost all chance given his preferred running style. He’s run well at this route in the past, and the 15-1 morning line odds hit me as an overlay; #6 FRISKY MAGICIAN: Was beaten by my top pick last time out, but is another that could be passing plenty of tired ones late. His best race could win, but he’s had plenty of chances lately and has just one win in his last 12 starts. DIRT SELECTIONS: STONEY BENNETT, THE CARETAKER, ETHAN HUNT.

Collegeville Girl
Time Warp
Party Like Grandma

#4 COLLEGEVILLE GIRL: Graduated at first asking in a live race that has already produced a few next-out winners. She’s worked well since that effort, and she certainly seems like the one with the most early zip; #6 TIME WARP: Exited that very race to win going away in a seven-furlong event. That was a solid victory, and even though she might want more distance, she figures to be a major player; #1 PARTY LIKE GRANDMA: Boasts both one of the best names on the grounds and a runaway first-out win at Finger Lakes. Andre Worrie comes in to ride, and she should show speed from the rail.

Fifty Five
La Moneda
Lady Joan

#7 FIFTY FIVE: Has significant back class and figures to be running well late in a race with lots of early speed. The tandem of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano is always tough to ignore, and she’ll likely be a short price; #2 LA MONEDA: Has won three races in a row and certainly seems to be in career form. She’s got enough tactical speed to sit a stalking trip, although Castellano hopping off isn’t ideal; #8 LADY JOAN: Went wire-to-wire going much longer earlier in the meet. She’s won at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 3/8 miles, and she’s shown an affinity for this turf course.

Split Time
Take Charge Aubrey
English Soul

#3 SPLIT TIME: Overcame a troubled trip to best a number of these foes last time out at Finger Lakes. She’s won five of her last six starts and has shown that she can go two turns; #2 TAKE CHARGE AUBREY: Bounced back from a loss to my top pick with a romp last time out going seven furlongs. Jose Ortiz rides back for Bruce Levine, who’s enjoyed a strong meet to this point; #11 ENGLISH SOUL: Seems like the main speed and will be reunited with Manuel Franco, who has piloted her to two of her three wins. She’ll almost certainly need to go from the outside post, but she may have enough zip to clear most of the field going into the first turn.

R10

Offering Plan
J J’s Dreaming (MTO)
Rapt

#6 OFFERING PLAN: Looms large on class, ability, and running style. He’s beaten many of these rivals in the past, and seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed; #11 RAPT: Is another that will drop back and make one big run. He hasn’t won in more than a year, but the faster they go early, the more he figures to like it; #10 KHARAFA: Makes his 50th career start here and is easy to root for given his longevity. He may be past his peak, but his late-running style could prove helpful in this event.

R11

Causforcelebration
Brockmoninoff
Cross Multiply

#9 CAUSFORCELEBRATION: Was second in a similar spot earlier in the meet, and he was wide most of the way that day. This isn’t a great post, but he’s a bit closer to the rail, and his primary competition draws an even worse spot; #12 BROCKMONINOFF: Was beaten less than a length by my top pick last time out, but got no help with the post position. His best chance may be to clear the field from the get-go, and that’s not easy to do from the far outside; #5 CROSS MULTIPLY: Comes back to the turf after running second on the main track earlier this month. He gets a decent post position, which isn’t a luxury he’s had in many of his prior outings.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/23/18

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $436.20

Saturday’s card has been drawn, and there’s a lot to take in. First, the good stuff: The Travers has every top-tier 3-year-old not named Justify (except for Hofburg). The Sword Dancer drew a 10-horse field with cases to be made for most of the runners, and multiple Grade 1 winner City of Light will ship east from California for the Forego. On the whole, it’s an excellent card, one that NYRA should be proud of.

There’s one disappointing race, though, and that’s the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. Yes, it has Abel Tasman and Elate. However, they’ll face just four challengers in a race that reflects the staggering lack of depth at the top of the older mare division. With how much Grade 1-placed mares are worth at auction, it’s a bummer that the Personal Ensign (which was shortened to a mile and an eighth just a few years ago to make it more attractive to runners not bred to go a mile and a quarter) couldn’t attract a bigger group.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Cause I’m Alex got the trip I wanted and ran okay at a bit of a price, but had to settle for third. That foiled $20 worth of win-place tickets.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: Assuming races carded for the turf stay there, I really like the late Pick Four sequence. The last two races seem wide-open, which could lead to a nice score. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh and is as follows: 1,6 with 4,8 with 4,5,6,9 with 2,4,5,7,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Our Honor, Race 6
Longshot: Early Retirement, Race 5

Iranistan
Clarcam
Show Court

#3 IRANISTAN: Ran a winning race in defeat last time out when second in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. The winner had the benefit of a perfect trip, while this one didn’t make the lead for the first time in his steeplechase career. It shouldn’t take much to turn the tables; #9 CLARCAM: Exits a romping win in a rich stakes race overseas just a few weeks ago. It’s a quick turnaround, but he’s shown an ability to handle it in the past, and the addition of Lasix could move him up; #4 SHOW COURT: Pulled off a 14-1 upset in the Smithwick, but got the benefit of a hole opening for him turning for home while my top pick raced three-wide. He could be in career-best form, but his past races at this distance aren’t anything to write home about.

Miss Mimosa
Tigalalu
War Value

#1 MISS MIMOSA: Stretches back out in distance after pressing a fast pace going shorter. Her race two back was quite sharp, and this trip should be much more to her liking (especially given the short field); #2 TIGALALU: May have bounced last time out when third in the slop last month. Her debut win at Belmont was sharp, and a return to that form could make her a major player; #3 WAR VALUE: Won for fun in her first dirt start, but sat a dream trip on a speed-favoring surface that day. There’s plenty of zip to her inside, so the likelihood of her sitting a similar trip here is low.

Cadillac Frankie
The Sicarii
Not That Brady

#3 CADILLAC FRANKIE: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez following a steady diet of local workouts. Some of those drills were quick, which is notable given the barn’s tendency to work horses slowly; #2 THE SICARII: Adds blinkers after having trouble at the gate in each of his first two outings. His debut effort was fine, and a clean start could result in a career-best race; #6 NOT THAT BRADY: Debuts for George Weaver and may get some play due to the backstory of his dam, Lisa’s Booby Trap (look it up, it’s a good one). The dirt workouts are solid, but the barn’s been in a bit of a rut lately and we’re not likely to get much of a price.

Salty Smile (MTO)
Rosebud’s Hope
Sheputaspellonme

#2 ROSEBUD’S HOPE: Has yet to run a bad race on turf and exits a win at Monmouth Park. This is a jump up in class, but it sure seems like a weak race for the level; #1 SHEPUTASPELLONME: Responded to the stretchout last time out with a third-place finish against similar-level opposition. Manuel Franco rides back, and she could show some speed from the rail; #3 THEODOSIA: Drops back to the appropriate level following a trip against optional claimers last month. A repeat of the race two back makes her a contender, but she hasn’t won in more than 10 months and won’t be any sort of a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: SALTY SMILE, OVERBOOK, SOLITARY GEM.

Woodbury (MTO)
Graded On a Curve
Early Retirement

#1 GRADED ON A CURVE: Is bred up and down for turf and shouldn’t have much of a problem with two turns in his debut. His dam is a half to multiple graded stakes winner J’Ray, who did her best running at this sort of route; #9 EARLY RETIREMENT: Showed speed going longer in a race run at the wrong distance earlier in the meet and could improve on the cutback. Shenanigans aside, he may have gotten a lot out of that race, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; #8 SCOTTY BROWN: Has a pedigree that looks modest on paper but gets better if you do some digging. He and his dam are both kin to five winners, and John Terranova can pop at a price with first-time starters. DIRT SELECTIONS: WOODBURY, PIPES, SCOTTY BROWN.

Our Honor
Won’t Burn
Expert

#8 OUR HONOR: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a near-miss at Parx and looms large for powerhouse connections. It’s not ideal to see a $435,000 purchase run for $30,000, but anything close to her two prior efforts would make him tough; #6 WON’T BURN: Came off the bench running last time out at Finger Lakes when beaten just a half-length. Finger Lakes shippers can win here, and this barn has enjoyed its share of success this summer; #5 EXPERT: Tries dirt first off the claim by Patrick Reynolds and has worked well enough over it to suggest he’ll be a factor.

Maho Bay (MTO)
Dubb entry
Dream Passage

DUBB ENTRY: #1A HOPONTHEBUSGUS can win, but I prefer #1 SAMARA, who was claimed last time out by Jason Servis and comes back to the grass. Her efforts three and four back are probably the best races run by any entrant in this field; #6 DREAM PASSAGE: Was third in an off-the-turf race last week and is wheeled back quickly by Brad Cox. Her win two back over maiden claimers was good, and she should be moving the right direction late; #7 AWESOME QUICK: Was headed at the wire last time out at Belmont and has a habit of settling for minor awards but ran reasonably well at this route last summer. Carmouche rides back, and she should show speed once again. DIRT SELECTIONS: MAHO BAY, LEAH’S DREAM, DUBB ENTRY.

Bronze Age
Shanghai Schwartz
Go Big Or Go Home

#4 BRONZE AGE: Was disqualified out of a win last time out and runs here for a barn that’s gotten hot of late. His versatility is a plus, and he’s reunited with the pilot from a sharp three-back effort; #8 SHANGHAI SCHWARTZ: Graduated in a photo finish last time out and makes his first start against winners. Castellano rides back for Brown, and he should show speed from his outside post; #6 GO BIG OR GO HOME: Was second to a runaway winner last time out at this level and route. He dueled between horses that day, which isn’t easy to do, and he’ll likely be prominent out of the gate once again.

Cash Out (MTO)
Goodthingstaketime
Tapit Today

#9 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME: Has spent most of this year running against graded stakes-caliber foes and could appreciate the slight class drop. She was third in the Grade 3 Lake George last time out, and trainer Jorge Abreu has done well this summer; #4 TAPIT TODAY: Has won two in a row at Monmouth and gets a class test here. This is certainly a step up, but this barn must be respected and there’s a chance she simply took two starts to figure things out; #6 FERDINANDA: Will likely drop back and make one big late run, which means she’s the likely beneficiary of a speed duel going into the first turn. Luis Saez rides back off a second-place finish last month. DIRT SELECTIONS: CASH OUT, GOING OUT, TAPIT TODAY.

R10

Siena Magic
Identity Politics
Measure Twice

#7 SIENA MAGIC: Gets a tepid nod in a contentious finale. He’s by all-world sire Candy Ride, out of a mare that doubles as a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Boston Harbor, and has a work tab that suggests he could be a real runner; #5 IDENTITY POLITICS: Was second in his debut downstate, where he pressed a slow pace and hung late. He could relish the cutback in distance, and improvement is always likely at second asking; #4 MEASURE TWICE: Debuts for first-out maestro Wesley Ward and sports several flashy drills, including an August 16th bullet. He fetched $525,000 at auction two years ago and is bred to be any sort of turf horse.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/22/18

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $456.20

I was all set to write this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files” on Justify, Accelerate, and the race for Horse of the Year honors. Unfortunately, something much more important came up when I saw what aspiring journalists at Liberty University are faced with thanks to administrators that are, shall we say, not receptive to the idea of a free press.

As I’ve said in this space in the past, above everything else I’m fortunate enough to do in my professional career, I’m a journalist, and this shook me to my core. If you want to read my thoughts on the matter, click here, and if you know of a way I can help these young men and women, please let me know.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: Perhaps those young men and women can help me with money management. Lady Love did not fire in the sixth race, and we dropped $32.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: This looks like a great card…if the rain stays away. My action focuses on the fifth race, where I’m taking a stand against the likely favorites. Instead, I’ll put $10 to win and place on the entry of #1 BROADWAY BAY and #1A CAUSE I’M ALEX in hopes that we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Makin’ Out, Race 7
Longshot: Englehart entry, Race 5

Mutasaawy
Surprising Soul
Boss Man

#3 MUTASAAWY: Was a good second against similar company earlier in the meet and won over this course last summer. The distance is a question mark, but he boasts the meet’s top steeplechase rider, who had options here; #1 SURPRISING SOUL: Romped in a Grade 3 when last seen, and it’s clear that this distance should not be a problem. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because of his two clunkers here last year; #6 BOSS MAN: Has plenty of early speed and stretches out for a sharp barn that’s had plenty of success this meet. Mitchell takes off, but this one is a threat to potentially lead from start to finish.

Promises Broken
Special Risk
Caoimhe

#5 PROMISES BROKEN: Seems best in what appears to be a two-horse race. She didn’t break well last time out, but stayed on well for second and has ample speed in a field that seems light on that quality; #6 SPECIAL RISK: Was claimed out of her last start by Robertino Diodoro, who can move horses up right away. She’s got the talent to win this, but if it rains, note the 0 for 5 mark on wet tracks; #4 CAOIMHE: Merits a look on the bottom of exotics tickets at a price. She comes back to dirt and does her best running over off going.

Achilles Warrior (MTO)
Halladay
Egoli

#5 HALLADAY: Showed plenty of speed in his debut, which was rained off the turf. His pedigree says he’ll take to the grass, and it’s good that he came back with a big work August 10th; #7 EGOLI: Has one of the best dam-side pedigrees you’ll see from a 2-year-old turf horse. Her dam was Group 3-placed as a 2-year-old, her second dam was a Grade 2 winner at that age, and this one has a series of strong works for Wesley Ward; #10 STROLL DADDY: Broke slowly in his debut, but rallied soon after the start and was beaten less than three lengths. This is another with a pedigree that screams turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: ACHILLES WARRIOR, HALLADAY, TAPIZARS SECRET.

Hit a Provisional
Danielle’s Pride
I Like Your Style

#5 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Came flying late and was beaten just a neck in her debut. This distance is an obstacle to overcome, but it certainly seems like she’s caught a fairly weak field for the level; #7 DANIELLE’S PRIDE: Drops in for a tag after showing flashes of talent against straight maidens. She has every right to wake up on the class drop, and Franco staying aboard is a plus; #6 I LIKE YOUR STYLE: Was up a bit closer last time out in her first try going long, but hung on for third and implied that she’ll like two turns. She gets such a route here, and her tactical speed is a plus.

Englehart entry
Mr. Buff
Testosterstone

ENGLEHART ENTRY: While #1 BROADWAY BAY is certainly a contender, I prefer #1A CAUSE I’M ALEX. He came flying late earlier this month at this route, and while this is a class jump, there seems to be plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late kick; #4 MR. BUFF: Has had plenty of chances, but is winless in his last nine outings. He’s shown he can go long, and a repeat of his May 12th effort likely puts him right there, but I’m hesitant to endorse him at his likely short price; #3 TESTOSTERSTONE: Takes a drop in class after chasing significantly better horses for most of the past year. He’s another that will likely benefit from a fast pace, and he moves up on a wet track.

Trustworthy (MTO)
Business Expense
Keep Quiet

#2 BUSINESS EXPENSE: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that was good enough for a win last time out at Monmouth. The waters are a bit deeper here, but when Chad Brown gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #4 KEEP QUIET: Has lots of back class, but hasn’t won in four starts since returning earlier this year. He’s run up against fast horses, but the barn is ice cold this meet, and that’s a red flag; #8 ZORZOR: Drops in class after misfiring against better horses last time out at Churchill. He won two starts back and could sit a similar trip beneath Florent Geroux. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRUSTWORTHY, ADMIRAL BLUE, SUPER DUDE.

Makin’ Out
Parlapiano
Mrs. Orb

#8 MAKIN’ OUT: Didn’t break well in her debut, but still managed an OK third that day. What I’m most intrigued by are the recent workouts since coming to Saratoga, which are stellar and imply that she’ll take a big step forward; #7 PARLAPIANO: Came back running off a long layoff when third here earlier this month. Franco rides back for Donk, and another solid effort at a bit of a price wouldn’t be a shock; #1 MRS. ORB: Will likely be favored cutting back off a solid effort downstate. However, she hasn’t really shown sprinter-type speed in the afternoons, and that could be an issue given the rail draw.

Vortex Road
Broken Border
Bareeqa

#5 VORTEX ROAD: Hasn’t run a bad race since last September and returns to her preferred surface here. She’s shown an ability to rate, which could benefit her given the abundance of early speed in this field; #1 BROKEN BORDER: Comes back to the state-bred ranks for Jason Servis, who has enjoyed a stellar Saratoga meet. She’s talented enough to win, but it sure seems like she prefers Belmont’s one-turn configuration; #7 BAREEQA: Is 3 for 4 over this turf course and should be running well late second off the layoff for Steve Asmussen. She’d benefit from a fast pace, and that may materialize.

You’re to Blame (MTO)
Call Provision
Harlan Strong

#10 CALL PROVISION: Exits a win going long on turf, and his usual race would make him tough to beat. He showed a bit more tactical speed last time out, and he could sit a similar trip here; #6 HARLAN STRONG: Probably went too fast early on in the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes, but ran very well two back in the Grade 3 Louisville when pressing a slow early pace. That sort of trip may materialize here, and he could get brave at a price if that happens; #4 FOCUS GROUP: Is undefeated going 11 furlongs or longer in his career and was sharp in victory last month. This is a class test, but the barn must be respected, as does the recent form. DIRT SELECTIONS: YOU’RE TO BLAME, SECURITIZ, EXULTING.

R10

Change of Control
No Limit Babe
The Leeman Dinner

#10 CHANGE OF CONTROL: Has worked well ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post for a solid first-out barn. The spotting is aggressive, but not outrageously, and if she runs to her drills, I think she’ll be tough; #2 NO LIMIT BABE: Has shown speed and returns to the dirt, which may be her preferred surface. The class drop into the maiden claiming ranks could also wake her up; #5 THE LEEMAN DINNER: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez, and offspring of Cairo Prince have done well to this point in the season. This barn doesn’t work horses quickly, so the bullet drill on July 11th jumps off the page.