bankroll | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/22/18

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $456.20

I was all set to write this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files” on Justify, Accelerate, and the race for Horse of the Year honors. Unfortunately, something much more important came up when I saw what aspiring journalists at Liberty University are faced with thanks to administrators that are, shall we say, not receptive to the idea of a free press.

As I’ve said in this space in the past, above everything else I’m fortunate enough to do in my professional career, I’m a journalist, and this shook me to my core. If you want to read my thoughts on the matter, head to AndrewChampagne.com, and if you know of a way I can help these young men and women, please let me know.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: Perhaps those young men and women can help me with money management. Lady Love did not fire in the sixth race, and we dropped $32.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: This looks like a great card…if the rain stays away. My action focuses on the fifth race, where I’m taking a stand against the likely favorites. Instead, I’ll put $10 to win and place on the entry of #1 BROADWAY BAY and #1A CAUSE I’M ALEX in hopes that we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Makin’ Out, Race 7
Longshot: Englehart entry, Race 5

Mutasaawy
Surprising Soul
Boss Man

#3 MUTASAAWY: Was a good second against similar company earlier in the meet and won over this course last summer. The distance is a question mark, but he boasts the meet’s top steeplechase rider, who had options here; #1 SURPRISING SOUL: Romped in a Grade 3 when last seen, and it’s clear that this distance should not be a problem. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because of his two clunkers here last year; #6 BOSS MAN: Has plenty of early speed and stretches out for a sharp barn that’s had plenty of success this meet. Mitchell takes off, but this one is a threat to potentially lead from start to finish.

Promises Broken
Special Risk
Caoimhe

#5 PROMISES BROKEN: Seems best in what appears to be a two-horse race. She didn’t break well last time out, but stayed on well for second and has ample speed in a field that seems light on that quality; #6 SPECIAL RISK: Was claimed out of her last start by Robertino Diodoro, who can move horses up right away. She’s got the talent to win this, but if it rains, note the 0 for 5 mark on wet tracks; #4 CAOIMHE: Merits a look on the bottom of exotics tickets at a price. She comes back to dirt and does her best running over off going.

Achilles Warrior (MTO)
Halladay
Egoli

#5 HALLADAY: Showed plenty of speed in his debut, which was rained off the turf. His pedigree says he’ll take to the grass, and it’s good that he came back with a big work August 10th; #7 EGOLI: Has one of the best dam-side pedigrees you’ll see from a 2-year-old turf horse. Her dam was Group 3-placed as a 2-year-old, her second dam was a Grade 2 winner at that age, and this one has a series of strong works for Wesley Ward; #10 STROLL DADDY: Broke slowly in his debut, but rallied soon after the start and was beaten less than three lengths. This is another with a pedigree that screams turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: ACHILLES WARRIOR, HALLADAY, TAPIZARS SECRET.

Hit a Provisional
Danielle’s Pride
I Like Your Style

#5 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Came flying late and was beaten just a neck in her debut. This distance is an obstacle to overcome, but it certainly seems like she’s caught a fairly weak field for the level; #7 DANIELLE’S PRIDE: Drops in for a tag after showing flashes of talent against straight maidens. She has every right to wake up on the class drop, and Franco staying aboard is a plus; #6 I LIKE YOUR STYLE: Was up a bit closer last time out in her first try going long, but hung on for third and implied that she’ll like two turns. She gets such a route here, and her tactical speed is a plus.

Englehart entry
Mr. Buff
Testosterstone

ENGLEHART ENTRY: While #1 BROADWAY BAY is certainly a contender, I prefer #1A CAUSE I’M ALEX. He came flying late earlier this month at this route, and while this is a class jump, there seems to be plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late kick; #4 MR. BUFF: Has had plenty of chances, but is winless in his last nine outings. He’s shown he can go long, and a repeat of his May 12th effort likely puts him right there, but I’m hesitant to endorse him at his likely short price; #3 TESTOSTERSTONE: Takes a drop in class after chasing significantly better horses for most of the past year. He’s another that will likely benefit from a fast pace, and he moves up on a wet track.

Trustworthy (MTO)
Business Expense
Keep Quiet

#2 BUSINESS EXPENSE: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that was good enough for a win last time out at Monmouth. The waters are a bit deeper here, but when Chad Brown gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #4 KEEP QUIET: Has lots of back class, but hasn’t won in four starts since returning earlier this year. He’s run up against fast horses, but the barn is ice cold this meet, and that’s a red flag; #8 ZORZOR: Drops in class after misfiring against better horses last time out at Churchill. He won two starts back and could sit a similar trip beneath Florent Geroux. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRUSTWORTHY, ADMIRAL BLUE, SUPER DUDE.

Makin’ Out
Parlapiano
Mrs. Orb

#8 MAKIN’ OUT: Didn’t break well in her debut, but still managed an OK third that day. What I’m most intrigued by are the recent workouts since coming to Saratoga, which are stellar and imply that she’ll take a big step forward; #7 PARLAPIANO: Came back running off a long layoff when third here earlier this month. Franco rides back for Donk, and another solid effort at a bit of a price wouldn’t be a shock; #1 MRS. ORB: Will likely be favored cutting back off a solid effort downstate. However, she hasn’t really shown sprinter-type speed in the afternoons, and that could be an issue given the rail draw.

Vortex Road
Broken Border
Bareeqa

#5 VORTEX ROAD: Hasn’t run a bad race since last September and returns to her preferred surface here. She’s shown an ability to rate, which could benefit her given the abundance of early speed in this field; #1 BROKEN BORDER: Comes back to the state-bred ranks for Jason Servis, who has enjoyed a stellar Saratoga meet. She’s talented enough to win, but it sure seems like she prefers Belmont’s one-turn configuration; #7 BAREEQA: Is 3 for 4 over this turf course and should be running well late second off the layoff for Steve Asmussen. She’d benefit from a fast pace, and that may materialize.

You’re to Blame (MTO)
Call Provision
Harlan Strong

#10 CALL PROVISION: Exits a win going long on turf, and his usual race would make him tough to beat. He showed a bit more tactical speed last time out, and he could sit a similar trip here; #6 HARLAN STRONG: Probably went too fast early on in the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes, but ran very well two back in the Grade 3 Louisville when pressing a slow early pace. That sort of trip may materialize here, and he could get brave at a price if that happens; #4 FOCUS GROUP: Is undefeated going 11 furlongs or longer in his career and was sharp in victory last month. This is a class test, but the barn must be respected, as does the recent form. DIRT SELECTIONS: YOU’RE TO BLAME, SECURITIZ, EXULTING.

R10

Change of Control
No Limit Babe
The Leeman Dinner

#10 CHANGE OF CONTROL: Has worked well ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post for a solid first-out barn. The spotting is aggressive, but not outrageously, and if she runs to her drills, I think she’ll be tough; #2 NO LIMIT BABE: Has shown speed and returns to the dirt, which may be her preferred surface. The class drop into the maiden claiming ranks could also wake her up; #5 THE LEEMAN DINNER: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez, and offspring of Cairo Prince have done well to this point in the season. This barn doesn’t work horses quickly, so the bullet drill on July 11th jumps off the page.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/20/18

Posted on August 19, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $488.20

All meet long, I’ve been waiting for the type of performance from a 2-year-old that leaves my jaw on the floor. Those are the races Saratoga tends to produce, and on Saturday, we saw one when Newspaperofrecord pulled her way towards the front early and had plenty in reserve late. She was geared down in winning by a city block, all while going two turns at first asking (which is never easy to do).

We’ve already seen a handful of incredibly impressive 2-year-olds on the west coast (Instagrand and Roadster, to name two), and I’d been hoping for a similar type of performance at some point from a Saratoga 2-year-old. With all due respect to the ones that won earlier in the meet, I think there’s a big chance Newspaperofrecord may be the best juvenile horse on the grounds.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Mo Wheels Up was delayed leaving the gate and never really got into the race. We dropped $30.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My action comes in the sixth, which I think is the best betting race of the day (assuming, of course, that it stays on the turf). My top pick is #9 LADY LOVE, and she’ll be the focus of my action. I’ll put $10 on her to win and place, and I’ll key her in $2 exactas above and below #4 REGAL DAME, #6 LITTLE CODE, and #11 ARCH OF TROY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Diodoro entry, Race 1
Longshot: Last Chant, Race 9

Diodoro entry
Belgian
The Queens Jules

DIODORO ENTRY: I prefer #1A MOHICAN, who won two back and drops back in for a claiming tag after a run against starter allowance foes. That said, #1 BENEFACTOR isn’t without a chance, as he’ll likely be prominent early; #7 BELGIAN: Has notched three straight seconds coming into this event, but the most recent one came on a sloppy dirt track. This is more his speed, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip; #5 THE QUEENS JULES: Won two back and has shown enough early zip to be a contender going short. Wesley Ward and John Velazquez team up with this one, and that combination always merits respect.

Stay Good
Puffin Patty
Wappinger

#10 STAY GOOD: Has worked well ahead of her debut and doesn’t seem to have drawn a stellar field in her unveiling. These are aggressive connections, so debuting her for a tag isn’t too much of a red flag: #9 PUFFIN PATTY: Has shown early speed, and in a field with many horses that haven’t shown an ability to pass others, that could be key. Kendrick Carmouche sees fit to ride, and he’ll likely send this filly out of the gate; #11 WAPPINGER: Was third against similar competition earlier in the meet. This is her second start off a brief freshening, so a step forward isn’t out of the question.

Point to Remember
Big Muddy
Domain

#5 POINT TO REMEMBER: Loved the added distance last time out, and even though he didn’t win that day, he ran very well. A similar effort will make him the one to beat (likely at a short price); #2 BIG MUDDY: Broke terrible in his debut but somehow managed to rally to finish in a photo for third. He likely got a lot out of that race, and he’s bred to go long; #6 DOMAIN: Was third in the race my top pick exits. He’ll race with blinkers for the first time, and that could get him more involved early (which is good since he must reverse a five-length margin on my top pick from the last-out effort).

Ward entry
Introduced
Miss Hanna Jo

WARD ENTRY: #1 TIMELY fetched $575,000 at auction and has worked well of late for top first-out trainer Wesley Ward. Her 311 turf Tomlinson figure hints that she’ll love the grass, and it helps that Velazquez has signed on to ride; #6 INTRODUCED: Hammered for $310,000 at auction earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree. She must have worked well at the sale, and the drills since then are certainly consistent; #10 MISS HANNA JO: Has every right to be a strong turf horse. She’s by top turf sire More Than Ready and is conditioned by Chad Brown, but she must negotiate a trip from the outside post (which is never an easy thing to do).

Missle Bomb
Forest Blue
King Kranz

#6 MISSLE BOMB: Has won four in a row and seems to be in career form. He can sit just off the pace, which is very helpful, and he actually drops down in class a bit off of his most recent victory; #4 FOREST BLUE: Tired to run fourth last time out, but cuts back in distance slightly and has back races that fit with this group. He was claimed by Chris Englehart last time out, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed; #7 KING KRANZ: Was claimed last time out following an effort that was too bad to be true. He won two in a row at Aqueduct earlier this year, and he’s a contender if he can find that form.

Hexameter (MTO)
Lady Love
Little Code

#9 LADY LOVE: Benefits from a race with lots of early speed signed on. She’ll likely sit back and make one big late run beneath Joel Rosario, and the faster they go early, the more this one figures to like it; #6 LITTLE CODE: Was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Monmouth last time out. Like my top pick, she figures to do her best running late, and the presence of Javier Castellano certainly doesn’t hurt; #4 REGAL DAME: Was claimed last time out after running second against a similar bunch downstate. She’s got plenty of speed, and she could be the quickest of the quick going into the first turn. DIRT SELECTIONS: HEXAMETER, REGAL DAME, AIKENETTA.

Picture Day (MTO)
Fairyland
Rumble Doll

#8 FAIRYLAND: Faded quickly last time out against stakes foes and has been rested since that effort. The recent workouts look sharp, and she may be the one they have to run down turning for home; #1 RUMBLE DOLL: May be past her peak, but she loves this route and should be running well late. She likely needed her race last time out, and I’m expecting a step forward; #4 BLACK CANARY: Did everything but win last time out in an off-the-turf race, where she was a game second. This barn is due to get rolling, and if you toss last year’s Natalma, she hasn’t run a truly bad race. DIRT SELECTIONS: PICTURE DAY, BLACK CANARY, PLAY UNIFIED.

Twisted Tom
Control Group
Pat On the Back

#3 TWISTED TOM: Likely needed his 2018 debut, which came off a layoff of nearly nine months. He’s done his best running around two turns, and his perfect record at this distance certainly doesn’t hurt; #1 CONTROL GROUP: Is 2 for 2 at Saratoga and has won a pair of races in a row ahead of this one. He’ll likely show his speed from the rail, and he could dictate terms early on; #7 PAT ON THE BACK: Prevailed in a fast renewal of the Saginaw Stakes at Belmont and stretches out to a two-turn route. I’m a bit skeptical and think he prefers a one-turn trip, but a repeat of the most recent effort puts this one right there in a solid renewal of the Evan Shipman.

Lemon Blitz
Last Chant
Edition Farm entry

#10 LEMON BLITZ: Was second two back against similar company, and such an effort could be good enough in a very confusing finale. That day’s winner came back to win again, and he should relish a return to the turf; #8 LAST CHANT: Has certainly had his chances, but he’s shown early speed, which much of this field does not have. He was second at big odds earlier in the meet, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes early and leads the field a long way; EDISON FARM ENTRY: #1 RIENDO drops in for a tag for the first time and is bred to love this distance, while #1A LOCAL EDITION likely needed his debut race and has a right to improve if he draws in off the AE list.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/19/18

Posted on August 18, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $518.20

Every now and then, an article gets posted about horse racing by someone who has no idea what’s going on. One that made the rounds a few days ago may challenge a blurb I saw in Southwest Airlines’ in-flight magazine that declared Orb the favorite for the 2014 Preakness Stakes, a year after he lost that race to Oxbow.

If you haven’t seen the article about Wonder Gadot on the Hollywood Life website, it’s on my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne). Scroll down a bit, click the link, and if you feel compelled to create a drinking game out of taking sips upon seeing mistakes, be warned that you probably won’t finish reading it before reaching your tolerance level.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We scratched down to $16 worth of doubles, which turned out to be bad beats. Single Rushing Fall won the Lake Placid, and I was right about Midnight Bisou not wanting the Alabama’s 10-furlong distance, but we didn’t have 9-1 winner Eskimo Kisses. In a word, ouch.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll make this pretty simple, because I think #2 MO WHEELS UP could be an overlay in the seventh. She’s been working tremendously here, and was getting plenty of action ahead of her planned debut. She had to scratch at the gate that day, but it seems like she’s ready to run. I’ll put $30 on her to win and hope we get the 3-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mo Wheels Up, Race 7
Longshot: Timber Ghost, Race 2

Dubb entry
Miss Nancy
Miss Aja Brown

DUBB ENTRY: #1 GLORY TO KITTEN and #1A QUEEN OF CASTLE could both conceivably win. The two mares are both dropping significantly in class for aggressive connections; #7 MISS NANCY: Makes her first start for Brian Lynch and has spent most of this year going against stakes foes. She’d benefit from a fast pace and figures to be running well late; #5 MISS AJA BROWN: Didn’t take to a sloppy dirt track at all last time out, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. She romped at this level two back at Belmont, and while two turns may not be ideal, she’s run well here in the past.

Timber Ghost
Leinster
Candirita

#7 TIMBER GHOST: Ran two flat races at short prices at Gulfstream, but has worked very well since shipping to Saratoga. The favorites here don’t look overly imposing, and if he runs to his drills, expect a big step forward; #4 LEINSTER: Was second earlier in the meet at a big price and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez. He’s had plenty of chances, but it’s possible he’s figuring things out; #3 CANDIRITA: Didn’t do much running in his debut, but he adds Lasix for a patient barn and comes in off a very sharp five-furlong drill downstate.

Alternative Energy
Rarities
Her Latest Film

#8 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY: Ran an OK third in her debut last month at this route. She didn’t break particularly well that day, and chances are she’ll improve from that experience; #9 RARITIES: Fetched $700,000 at auction last year and is bred to love turf. She’s by City Zip and has been working well for a barn that’s much sharper than its record suggests; #6 HER LATEST FILM: Improved when cut back to a sprint last time out, and she figures to be one of the main speed threats beneath John Velazquez.

Moonlit Garden
Awestruck
A Place to Shine

#4 MOONLIT GARDEN: Has not run a bad dirt race in more than a year and was a close-up second in a similar race last time out at Monmouth. She does not need the lead to run well, and that could benefit her; #1 AWESTRUCK: Hasn’t done much wrong this year, as she’s won two of four starts and fared reasonably well in a pair of stakes races. She was second in a $100,000 race last time out at Indiana Grand and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #2 A PLACE TO SHINE: Has shown an ability to run well late, and that could be a plus given the likely race shape. She’s also run well on off tracks in the past, and she may get one here.

Shannon’s Girl
Newspaperofrecord
Tip At Tapit

#3 SHANNON’S GIRL: Is the only runner in the main body of the field with experience, and her debut was sharp. She came flying late going shorter and has a pedigree that suggests two turns won’t be a problem; #5 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD: Debuts for Chad Brown and sports an OK worktab that hints she wants to go long. It’s tough to debut at this route, but she could be a short-priced favorite; #9 TIP AT TAPIT: Is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Time And Motion and has flashed potential in the works leading up to her debut. This barn’s trainees sometimes need a race, but if she’s the runner her sister was, look out.

H Man (MTO)
Fast Getaway
Vitsal

#2 FAST GETAWAY: Took to turf like a duck to water last time out, as he graduated at a bit of a price after flopping when favored in his debut. There’s plenty of speed signed on here, and that bodes well for this closer; #3 VITSAL: Was second in an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet and comes back to his preferred surface. He has back class and will likely be favored, but he’s winless since beating a suspect group at Tampa; #9 NOT SO QUIET MAN: Shortens back up to a sprint and has done good work going short on grass. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride. DIRT SELECTIONS: H MAN, ROYAL HEIST, WE SHOULD TALK.

Mo Wheels Up
Flatter My Heart
Filly Joel

#2 MO WHEELS UP: Was bet heavily prior to her planned debut, but was scratched at the gate and triggered a purse-money-only fiasco when her stablemate won. She’s worked very well here, and I’m hoping we get the morning line price; #8 FLATTER MY HEART: Has turned in an impressive series of works ahead of his debut. This trainer/jockey combination must be respected; #6 FILLY JOEL: Could be a big shot given a decent work tab and the combination of Rudy Rodriguez and Irad Ortiz. If you think she’ll run well on debut, you may be right (this is what we in the business call “low-hanging fruit”).

Behavioral Bias
Wonderful Light
Petrov

#3 BEHAVIORAL BIAS: Hasn’t won in five 2018 starts, but he’s consistently run well against some good horses. He was second in a swiftly-run event earlier in the meet, and a repeat effort would give him a big chance; #4 WONDERFUL LIGHT: Stretches out to seven panels after falling a nose short in a tough allowance event downstate. There’s nothing saying he won’t get the added distance, and the last two drills jump off the page; #6 PETROV: Drops in class after contesting the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. Those waters were too deep, but he won at this route last summer and could relish the softer competition.

Wooderson (MTO)
Admission Office
Strike

#9 ADMISSION OFFICE: Won his debut with a big rally and nearly made it two in a row when beaten less than a length downstate. He adds blinkers and could be more involved early on; #10 STRIKE: Has shown ample early speed in both 2018 starts and just missed earlier in the meet. He must work out a trip from a far outside post, but he’s got enough tactical zip to potentially clear the field early; #2 VEGAS KITTEN: Adds blinkers second off a brief freshening, and that could help him given that his lone win came when he was very close to the pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: WOODERSON, TRES EQUIS, OWN AGENDA.

R10

Fortythreeoeight N
Comeoncomeoncat
Southeast

#8 FORTYTHREEOEIGHT N: Reacted well to coming back to dirt earlier in the meet, when he was a close-up third against slightly better competition. Franco sees fit to ride back, and he could get first run on the tiring pacesetters turning for home; #2 COMEONCOMEONCAT: Is one of several in here that will likely go early. He exits the same race as my top pick, but didn’t have an easy go of it that day given the quick early fractions; #6 SOUTHEAST: Could be a massive price in his first start for Gary Contessa, whose barn is quietly beginning to get going. He’s a closer that could benefit from a speed duel early on.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/18/18

Posted on August 17, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $534.20

Today’s card at Saratoga may be the best one of the meet to this point. Several of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country will be in action, and the card also boasts a number of intriguing races for 2-year-olds. There are plenty of great wagering opportunities on tap, and it’s a pleasure to handicap programs like this that reflect what Saratoga should always be: One of the last remaining cathedrals in horse racing.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Shang Shang Shang scratched scratched scratched, so our $20 cold double was refunded.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU in the Alabama. She’s a very nice horse, but the distance is a big question mark, and I can’t endorse her at her likely price. I’ll play doubles starting and ending in that race that use #4 SHE’S A JULIE and #8 TALK VEUVE TO ME. My $8 doubles starting in the eighth single #6 RUSHING FALL, and my $4 doubles ending in the tenth use #3 NEOCLASSIC, #4 REFLECTED STAR, and #11 EXPECTED RULER (assuming, of course, that the race stays on turf). Additionally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the eighth that uses those horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Rushing Fall, Race 8
Longshot: Noble Nebraskan, Race 2

Azzedine
Causeur
End of an Era

#2 AZZEDINE: Drops further down the ladder after falling as a 7/5 favorite earlier in the meet. This doesn’t seem like a distinguished field, and it seems like one he’ll beat with his usual race; #8 CAUSEUR: Had an eventful trip last time out, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. He has back races that would make him a contender here, and we may get a price given the recent clunker; #9 END OF AN ERA: Adds blinkers for his local debut after an OK performance at Delaware Park. The blinkers could get him more involved early, and the presence of speed rider Kendrick Carmouche could also signal that he’s going early.

Standard Deviation (MTO)
Noble Nebraskan
Medina Ridge

#10 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Is bred up and down for turf and has a solid series of works ahead of his debut. George Weaver can win with first-time starters, and we may get a price in what seems like a wide-open event; #9 MEDINA RIDGE: Is another bred to be a strong grass horse. He’s by War Front, out of a Smart Strike mare, and goes out for a barn that’s had success with firsters on turf; #6 SOUTHERN BRIDGE: Was fifth in his debut earlier in the meet, and was beaten just two lengths that day despite a wide trip. Improvement is logical at second asking for a patient barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: STANDARD DEVIATION, GOOSE DRANK WINE, PERCEIVED.

Forge
Nigel’s Destiny
Helooksthepart

#1 FORGE: Did everything but win last time out in a very fast race for the level. He was claimed by Mike Maker that day, and he retains the services of jockey Javier Castellano; #7 NIGEL’S DESTINY: Is the only runner in this race with multiple wins at the seven-furlong distance. He was third behind a next-out winner in an allowance event downstate, and his last start for a tag was a win; #5 HELOOKSTHEPART: Didn’t fire last time out in a race several of today’s foes also exit, but is a closer in an event with plenty of early speed signed on. He may be past his peak, but the race shape will almost certainly benefit him.

Ahead of Plan
Principled
Cromwell Avenue

#7 AHEAD OF PLAN: Has a purchase price ($475,000) that jumps off the page given his very modest pedigree. He’s worked well of late and figures to be tough if he runs to those drills; #2 PRINCIPLED: Is the other logical first-time starter. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of Grade 2 winner Teen Pauline, who set the five-furlong track record here at Saratoga in her 2012 debut; #8 CROMWELL AVENUE: Didn’t do much running in his debut, which was won by an impressive 2-year-old named Nitrous. He didn’t have a great trip that day and could improve here at a price.

Our Girl Abby
Tee Up
Richie’slilwildcat

#3 OUR GIRL ABBY: Got the dirty end of a photo finish last time out but has a right to turn the tables on that rival here. There’s lots of early speed in this race, and she’s shown an ability to rate; #6 TEE UP: Was the winner of that photo finish following a perfect trip and smart ride by Joel Rosario. A repeat isn’t out of the question, but Rosario’s in California and there’s much more early speed signed on today; #4 RICHIE’SLILWILDCAT: Has won two small stakes races and ships in for a prominent Midwest outfit. She’ll likely make the lead, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she wires the field, but she may have to work hard out of the gate to get to the front.

Wild Medagliad’oro
Most Mischief
Fed Fever

#5 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO: Close well to be second in his debut after racing very wide most of the way. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he’s bred to go much longer (and ran like it in his unveiling), but this certainly seems like the weaker split of the same race (the fourth has the same conditions); #3 MOST MISCHIEF: Improved at second asking when third behind Nitrous despite a trip that didn’t do him many favors. He has an experience edge on this group, which could prove valuable; #7 FED FEVER: Was bet in his debut but raced very wide and likely wasn’t fully persevered with. He’s continued to work well and has every right to step forward with a start under his belt.

Lovely La La
Hollywood Cat
Way Smart

#8 LOVELY LA LA: Was much the best in her maiden win downstate, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win. The pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and speed’s always a plus on the inner turf course; #3 HOLLYWOOD CAT: Flopped when fourth as a 3/2 favorite earlier in the meet, but the turf course was very wet that day. If the ground is on the firmer side, she has a big chance to improve for a proven barn; #4 WAY SMART: May have moved a bit too soon last time out at this level, but still ran an OK third. She’s yet to run a truly bad race and has shown some flexibility in her running style.

Rushing Fall
Thewayiam
Significant Form

#6 RUSHING FALL: Was very rank last time out and still only missed by a neck in what doubled as her first career loss. She wants to rate and should be able to do that behind several others in this field; #1 THEWAYIAM: Hasn’t run a bad race this year and was a good second in the Belmont Oaks. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a closer, but she was only a length behind Rushing Fall earlier this year at Keeneland; #4 SIGNIFICANT FORM: Was fourth in the Belmont Oaks in a race that may have been longer than she wants to go. The cutback in distance should help her, and she’ll likely be on or near the lead given her ample tactical speed.

Talk Veuve to Me
She’s a Julie
Midnight Bisou

#8 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Chased Mia Mischief and Monomoy Girl earlier this year, but cruised in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and showed she could go two turns. This field isn’t heavy on tactical speed, and she’s worked really well here of late; #4 SHE’S A JULIE: Romped in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks and is another that shouldn’t be too far back early. Take out the Fair Grounds races, and you’re left with a much better resume; #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Was second in the CCA Oaks, but had every chance that day and just couldn’t stick with Monomoy Girl. It seems like she struggles going further than a mile and a sixteenth, and I’m not sure this is the trip she wants.

R10

Brimstone (MTO)
Reflected Star
Expected Ruler

#4 REFLECTED STAR: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale. He’s shown early speed and was claimed out of his last race (a weirdly-run event) by a barn that’s done great work this year with a fairly small outfit; #11 EXPECTED RULER: Just missed at 25-1 last time out against much better, and is a major player if he draws in off the AE list. His effort two back has aged well, as he was third behind next-out Grade 3 winner Sandy’z Slew; #3 NEOCLASSIC: Has won two of his last three, and in those wins, he topped many of today’s rivals. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he seems to prefer one-turn routes to two-turn trips, and he gets the latter here. DIRT SELECTIONS: BRIMSTONE, BITUMEN, CALIFORNIA SWING.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/17/18

Posted on August 16, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $534.20

Earlier this week, a strangely uplifting hashtag emerged on Twitter. People took to using #ShareYourRejections, and seeing the ways people have overcome setbacks served as a much-needed reminder that social media, at its best, can be incredibly uplifting.

I shared my story as part of the hashtag, and I also linked to a series of stories I wrote up a while back for AndrewChampagne.com entitled “The Failure Files.” If that helps someone going through something, or even makes someone laugh that could use a chuckle, I think it’s worth it to share my story. If you feel compelled to check it out, go to my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne).

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Nobody went with Souperfast in the fifth, and while the two closers I keyed in exactas ran OK, they had to settle for third and fourth due to the unfavorable race shape. We dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: It’s a little tough to take too much of a stand given the weather forecast, but I’ll save my action for the late daily double, assuming the featured Skidmore Stakes stays on the turf. I’ll play a cold $20 double using likely favorites #2 SHANG SHANG SHANG and #1 AMERICAN RULE. Given the large fields signed on, I’m hoping to get a bit more of a payoff than the win odds on either horse would dictate.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: American Rule, Race 10
Longshot: Mascarello, Race 8

Mesotherm (MTO)
All Clear
Hubbadahubbadaboom

#8 ALL CLEAR: Ran well in his turf debut when second behind a next-out winner. The Gargan barn has done well to this point in the meet, and speed rider Carmouche should ensure that he’s prominent early; #6 HUBBADAHUBBADABOOM: Has shown lots of speed and comes back to turf. His lone turf start came on the quirky Kentucky Downs course, so it’s easy to throw out. Good luck with the name, Larry; #4 WET YOUR WHISTLE: Ran well when fourth at this level and route last time out and adds blinkers. This will be just his third career start, so he could still have room to grow. DIRT SELECTIONS: MESOTHERM, ALL CLEAR, HUBBADAHUBBADABOOM.

Frostie Anne
Land Mine
Pink Twist

#1 FROSTIE ANNE: Is wheeled back on short rest after an easy wire-to-wire score last weekend. She’ll look for her sixth win in a row, and she’s been in tremendous form for most of the past year; #5 LAND MINE: Was second against open company earlier in the meet, and that was her first start since July. She could step forward second off the bench, and it helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #6 PINK TWIST: Clearly relished two turns when winning by nearly three lengths earlier this month. The Terranova barn has strong numbers with limited starters to this point in the meet.

Giant Boo Boo
Wheresthebarber
Shuffling Madness

#5 GIANT BOO BOO: Sure seems like the lone speed in the race, and in a maiden claiming field that doesn’t seem strong, that could be enough. Jose Ortiz rides back, and he’ll likely be the one to catch; #7 WHERESTHEBARBER: Was second in a similar spot at big odds earlier in the meet. That was by far the best race he’s ever run, and he’ll likely need to repeat it to compete with my top pick; #3 SHUFFLING MADNESS: Was one-paced when fourth at this level earlier this month. He hit the board in a pair of maiden claiming events at Belmont and could rally for a piece of it.

Unbridledadventure (MTO)
Fast Track Kathern
Hoponthebusgus

#4 FAST TRACK KATHERN: Has won three of her last five starts and two of three since going to the turf. Michelle Nevin claimed her earlier in the meet, and her runners are firing regularly; #3 HOPONTHEBUSGUS: Stretches out in distance after misfiring last month going much shorter. She’s won going long in the past, and she has a solid two-turn race to her credit last year at Aqueduct; #6 CODRINGTON: Gets a pass for her last-out effort given the extremely wet turf course. Assuming things are a bit drier, she stands a chance over a course she’s won at in the past. DIRT SELECTIONS: UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE, LA FEE VERTE, DIAMOND JEN BRADY.

Kadens Courage
Steam Engine
Icey Cash

#4 KADENS COURAGE: Has worked well ahead of his debut and earned a bullet on August 10th. This is a wide-open field, but he’s got a big shot if he runs to the work tab; #9 STEAM ENGINE: Makes his debut for Brad Cox, who can win with any type of runner. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because offspring of sire Mineshaft often want much more ground than today’s distance; #2 ICEY CASH: Has several strong works of late for a barn whose horses sometimes need a race to get going. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride, which can’t be ignored.

Hannah’s Smile
Saratoga Treasure
Broman entry

#8 HANNAH’S SMILE: Generally runs the same race every time out and may be helped by the likely race shape. She’s a closer in a race with lots of early speed, and she should be going the right direction late; #3 SARATOGA TREASURE: Won her debut at this route last summer and comes in off of two solid efforts at this level downstate. She’s another that will be running well turning for home; BROMAN ENTRY: Is in the top three partially because of strength in numbers and partially in case this race gets taken off the turf. All three of these horses can run on a wet main track, and if that situation arises, I’m hoping more than one runs. DIRT SELECTIONS: BROMAN ENTRY, SILENCIA, SCORPION BOWL.

Dancing All Night
Cilantro
Palladian Bridge

#5 DANCING ALL NIGHT: Ran a very good race in defeat last time out, especially since that was her first start in nearly a year. She could sit just off the pace and get first run on the pacesetters at the top of the stretch; #10 CILANTRO: Was impressive in breaking her maiden at Tampa, but she hasn’t run since. Having said that, she has a few solid local drills for a barn that must be respected; #8 PALLADIAN BRIDGE: Set a fast pace earlier in the meet, but still hung on for third. She figures to be the main speed, and she hasn’t run a bad race in almost a year.

Stretch’s Stone (MTO)
Honor Up
Mascarello

#9 HONOR UP: May have been a turf horse all along. He prevailed in a swiftly-run race downstate after trying very tough company on dirt earlier this season. A repeat effort could be enough to win what seems like a wide-open race; #5 MASCARELLO: Is a price on the morning line, but has won three of his last five for a very capable barn. Luis Saez rides, and he hasn’t finished worse than second in a pair of local outings; CASSE ENTRY: I most prefer #1A CATCH A CAB, who won three in a row before a race that was too bad to be true. He’d benefit from a fast pace, and Jose Ortiz comes back aboard. DIRT SELECTIONS: STRETCH’S STONE, WICKED MACHO, HOLY WEEK.

Shang Shang Shang
Swamp Rat
Sir Truebadour

#2 SHANG SHANG SHANG: Scratched out of the Bolton Landing to run here against males, and she exits a Group 2 win at Royal Ascot. She’s got plenty of early speed and has worked well of late; #8 SWAMP RAT: Made up a lot of ground in his debut, where he won going away at odds of 24-1. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and that could set up for him; #12 SIR TRUEBADOUR: Exits a Grade 3 win at Churchill Downs and tries turf for the first time. He’s bred to love it, but will need to negotiate a trip from the far outside post. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHANG SHANG SHANG, SIR TRUEBADOUR, LEXITONIAN.

R10

American Rule
The Chamo
Metaphorical

#1 AMERICAN RULE: Caught a tough field in his lone start to date, which was won by eventual graded stakes winner Kanthaka. He drops way down in class for his first start since December, which is usually a red flag, but it just seems like he’s much better than this bunch; #10 THE CHAMO: Was third at this level earlier in the meet and put forth a bullet work last week. Joel Rosario rides back, and he could get a good stalking trip; #3 METAPHORICAL: Drops down in class after running for double this price in each of his last two outings. One of those races saw his run second at Belmont, so he could be competitive going down a level.