bankroll

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/16/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $564.20

During Wednesday’s races, I noticed the Saratoga feed advertising ways to host fantasy football drafts at the track. There are many marketing measures put forth by tracks that I completely disagree with, but I actually like this idea. Many of the same traits evident in fantasy football success (competitiveness and spotting candidates for improvement and decline, to name two) are also necessary to make money at the betting windows, so this seems like a natural fit.

Additionally, with more and more leagues offering cash prizes to winners, the gambling juices will be flowing, which could lead to opportunities to create new fans. Longtime followers of the sport are often quick to lament marketing measures that don’t necessarily produce handle or repeat customers. This one might, and I hope data is made available at the end of the meet so that we can see if it worked.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Our early Pick Four went up in smoke when two horses used in the second leg came up on the losing end of a three-horse photo, and win-place play Texas Music tired badly in the stretch of the fourth. We dropped $28.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race, which strikes me as one of the best betting races of the meet to this point (assuming it stays on turf). I’ll key #4 TUSK and #10 ASTOUNDING on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #6 GIANT RUN, and #7 LUCKY RAMSEY in the second spot. Additionally, I’ll box Tusk and Astounding on their own in $2 combinations, and I’ll put $4 to win and place on Tusk (since he’ll likely be the bigger price of my two top selections).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Doyouknowsomething, Race 2
Longshot: Tusk, Race 5

R1

Throw the Fade
Cheyenne entry
Somebody

#3 THROW THE FADE: Runs for a claiming price for the first time and has been gelded since his last start. Either of these changes could wake him up, and I’m willing to toss his most recent effort; CHEYENNE ENTRY: I prefer #1 MANTLE, who ran OK at this level earlier in the meet. He showed an ability to rate that day and may improve in his third career start; #6 SOMEBODY: Is another horse whose connections are making many changes. He’s been gelded, and he’ll add blinkers here on the drop from two straight maiden events.

R2

Doyouknowsomething
Securitiz
Let Me Go First

#3 DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING: Seems like the lone early speed horse in this compact field, and that alone could put him in the winner’s circle. Add in a significant class drop, and you have a horse that could prove very tough to catch; #5 SECURITIZ: Is another taking a significant drop, and he has plenty of back races that would be more than enough to beat this group. However, such a drop off of a five-month layoff is cause for concern, and this barn hasn’t had a great meet to this point; #2 LET ME GO FIRST: Hasn’t run in a while, but has spent time going against higher-class foes. He chased Grade 3 company last month at Monmouth, and he could appreciate shallower waters.

R3

Picco Uno
Bonita Bianca
Absatootly

#5 PICCO UNO: Won this race last year and looms large once again. Her last-out win downstate was impressive, and a repeat of that effort likely puts her in the winner’s circle once again; #4 BONITA BIANCA: Returns to the state-bred ranks after misfiring last time out at Delaware Park. Her races at this level have been strong, and she could complete a Jason Servis-trained exacta; #1 ABSATOOTLY: Seems best of the rest and gets Jose Ortiz. She has a flexible running style, but she may need to show some speed from the rail.

R4

No Stone Unturned (MTO)
Tradeable
Ruvies in Time

#5 TRADEABLE: Was beaten a half-length at boxcar odds in her debut, but in hindsight, she never should’ve been that kind of a price. She’s bred up and down for turf, and a repeat of that effort likely wins; #10 RUVIES IN TIME: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but she’s another bred to love the grass. She’s by The Factor and out of a Tapit mare, and this barn’s horses often improve with experience; #7 LOVE AND LOVE: Was an OK second in her debut downstate. That was far from a fast race, but she’s bred to be OK and gets Luis Saez. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO STONE UNTURNED, SASSY AGNES, DEVIL’S FLAIR.

R5

Ekhtibaar (MTO)
Tusk
Astounding

#4 TUSK: Gets my top pick in what seems like an excellent betting race (provided it stays on turf). He’s done his best running on grass and won impressively here last year; #10 ASTOUNDING: Has won his last two turf starts and has only finished worse than third once in seven races run on grass. He’s certainly a contender, although he’ll need to work out a trip from his outside post; #7 LUCKY RAMSEY: Has hit the board in all seven of his starts this year and was claimed back by Mike Maker last time out. He could sit a stalking trip and get first run turning for home. DIRT SELECTIONS: EKHTIBAAR, BAD STUDENT, TUSK.

R6

Pink Sands
Chamber
Curlism

#7 PINK SANDS: Makes her first start since November and comes in off of two straight bullet workouts. She disappointed in a few races as a 2-year-old, but her pedigree says she’ll get better with age; #2 CHAMBER: Is by Tapit and out of a multiple Grade 1 winner named Sightseek, making her one of the best-bred fillies in the country. Her workouts look sharp, and she could be good enough to win on debut; #9 CURLISM: Has several strong works on the tab and draws a cushy outside post. This barn hasn’t made much noise this meet, but conditioner Ralph Nicks can win with first-time starters.

R7

Hollywood Handsome
Adulator
Admiral Blue

#5 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME: Takes a big drop in class to run for a tag less than five months after finishing second in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. This is a much weaker field than what he’s been running against, and the recent workout hints that he’s ready; #2 ADULATOR: Hasn’t won in a while but drops in class and stretches out to two turns. His two-turn races are arguably the best ones he’s ever run, and he sports a win at this route; #8 ADMIRAL BLUE: Showed speed at this level and route last time out before fading to second. He figures to be on or close to the lead early on.

R8

Piedi Bianchi (MTO)
Altea
Emmy Performance

#7 ALTEA: Has hit the board in a pair of Grade 3 races and drops to run against allowance foes. Anything close to her run in last month’s Lake George, where she led briefly and wound up finishing second, would make her a formidable foe; #4 EMMY PERFORMANCE: Was the victim of a paceless race last time out and should get more speed to run at here. She’s bred to be very good, and she could be going the right way late at a price; #6 QUIVERY: Makes her American debut and gets Lasix for the first time. Her prior connections thought enough of her to run in a Group 1 race last October, and she won two in a row to start her career. DIRT SELECTIONS: PIEDI BIANCHI, COOL BEANS, MISS MIMOSA.

R9

First Forever (MTO)
Espresso Shot
Mike’s Girl

#2 ESPRESSO SHOT: Has a solid work tab ahead of her debut for a trainer that’s quietly done great work with debuting runners. She’s bred to be OK, and she may not have to be much against this group; #7 MIKE’S GIRL: Was a one-paced fourth in her debut last month for one of the top barns on the grounds. She could improve at second asking, especially given the slightly-friendlier post; #4 PLINK FREUD: Runs for a barn whose first-time starters often aren’t cranked up, but she’s by Freud, whose progeny tend to take to the turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: FIRST FOREVER, ESPRESSO SHOT, BANK EXAMINER.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/15/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $592.50

I have a lot of respect for my readers, and as such, I’m going to make a promise to you. That promise is as follows: With the exception of this one paragraph, I promise to never, EVER, call the 10-furlong Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds coming up later this month the Runhappy Travers.

This is not a slight on the horse or his connections (past and/or present). Runhappy was a brilliant sprinter who, for a five-month stretch in 2015, was probably the second-best male horse in training behind American Pharoah. Additionally, former owner James McIngvale has shown himself to be one of the most giving people around, especially in times of crisis. Having said that, Runhappy was never a 10-furlong horse, so even in an age where everything that moves is sponsored, this seems like a reach.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: We got washed out of the late Pick Four, and this was a good thing. Single (and subject of a small win bet) Flowers for Lisa got a perfect trip on the front end and looked home at the top of the stretch, but was run down and had to settle for second. We dropped $10.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Four, again assuming all races carded for turf stay there. My 50-cent ticket starts in the second and is as follows: 3,6 with 1,3,4 with 1,7 with 3,4,7. I’ll also put $5 to win and place on #1 TEXAS MUSIC in the fourth race (my longshot of the day).

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Tossup, Race 2
Longshot: Texas Music, Race 4

R1

Cool as You Like
Quick On the Draw
Our Whim

#4 COOL AS YOU LIKE: Drops way down in class for Michelle Nevin off a long layoff, which is normally a red flag. However, this is far from a distinguished group, and the recent works hint that she’s ready to run; #2 QUICK ON THE DRAW: Is another dropper coming off an extended break. She has a win over this surface, which is a plus, but this barn has struggled of late with horses coming off of long layoffs; #1 OUR WHIM: Is impossible to endorse on top given her lack of a win in the past two seasons, but she’s been competitive at this level and could rally for a piece of it.

R2

Tossup
Elegant Zip
Miss Flambe

#3 TOSSUP: Broke badly in her debut, but managed to run second in a $100,000 stakes race. Her pedigree suggests she’ll get better with experience, and if she gets a clean start, look out; #6 ELEGANT ZIP: Was second earlier this meet in her unveiling for a trainer whose horses sometimes need a race to get going. I’m not crazy about the field she ran against, but she could improve and beat these; #5 MISS FLAMBE: Debuts following a steady string of local workouts, the most recent of which was an OK five-furlong drill. If she runs to that work, she could sneak into the money.

R3

Greatreviews
Posse Needed
Breaking Bread

#4 GREATREVIEWS: Is 3 for 4 on fast dirt tracks and seems like the one to beat if the track doesn’t take considerable moisture. Her races two and three back were sharp, and I can toss the last effort based on the muddy surface; #3 POSSE NEEDED: May be this race’s lone closer and comes in off a win downstate in the mud. Irad Ortiz, Jr., had some options here, and this is the one he chose to ride; #1 BREAKING BREAD: Makes her first start for Jorge Navarro and returns to the site of her lone win to date. She’s been competitive against good groups and could improve on the trainer switch.

R4

Hexameter (MTO)
Texas Music
Avery Maeve

#1 TEXAS MUSIC: Didn’t break well earlier this meet and lost all chance due to her need-the-lead running style. That was against a better group, and she was bet that day. A clean break would make her the one to catch; #7 AVERY MAEVE: Hasn’t won in nearly two years and goes out for a cold barn, but takes a considerable class drop. She’s run well here in the past and could come running late; #6 BOWL OF KISSES: Tries turf after winning two in a row on the main track at Belmont. She doesn’t have much in the way of a turf pedigree, but she figures to be prominent early. DIRT SELECTIONS: HEXAMETER, BOWL OF KISSES, TEXAS MUSIC.

R5

Don’t Tell Addie
D’s Sis
Bull Feathers

#7 DON’T TELL ADDIE: Hammered for $125,000 earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree and has worked well at Churchill Downs. Steve Hobby almost never runs horses here, so it’s telling that this one shows up here; #4 D’S SIS: Is bred to be a good one. She’s by City Zip and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, so she may want turf, but the works indicate she may be a runner; #3 BULL FEATHERS: Got shuffled back a bit in her debut and may have gotten something out of that race. She could improve at second asking for a patient barn.

R6

Imperatore
Turco Bravo
Tapin Mojo

#4 IMPERATORE: Was beaten less than a length at this route earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that event by Charlton Baker. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and he’s got plenty of tactical speed; #6 TURCO BRAVO: Hasn’t won in a while, but always seems to fire and drops a bit in class. He was a solid second when running for a $25,000 tag last month; #3 TAPIN MOJO: Is a very tricky read, given that he hasn’t raced in nearly two years. He has back races that are good enough, but whether or not he’ll channel that form is anyone’s guess.

R7

Peter’s Kitten
Soar From Shadows
Charreada

#10 PETER’S KITTEN: Ran well in her debut, when she was second going long at Churchill Downs. It’s not easy to debut at that distance, but she ran a big race and showed speed that could come in handy on the inner turf; #6 SOAR FROM SHADOWS: May have gone a bit too far last time out and cuts back to a distance she’s run well at in the past. We may get a bit of a price given the recent clunker; #8 CHARREADA: Is bred up and down for turf and tries the surface for the first time. Shug McGaughey has very strong numbers with similar stock, and she could be running well late.

R8

Professor Snape
Still Krz
Its All Relevant

#7 PROFESSOR SNAPE: Gets a tepid nod in a confusing race. He won first time off the claim for Gary Gullo last out at Delaware Park, and it helps that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #2 STILL KRZ: Put it all together last time out at Belmont Park at a slightly higher level. He’ll certainly be prominent early, and given the aggressive connections, the drop doesn’t scare me; #1 ITS ALL RELEVANT: Hasn’t run since September, but is working well and has been gelded since that effort. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but Luis Saez signing on can’t be overlooked.

R9

Shang Shang Shang
Drynachan
Elsa

#3 SHANG SHANG SHANG: Won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot in June and sports a recent bullet workout ahead of her return. A repeat of the race across the pond would make her very tough to beat; #2 DRYNACHAN: Was impressive in her debut, when she rallied to win going away earlier in the meet. Unlike others in here, she doesn’t need the lead, which could help; #6 ELSA: Was impressive in victory at Laurel Park, where she won by nearly four lengths. She’s been working well, and Joe Bravo’s made the most of his mounts to this point in the meet.

R10

Rucksack (MTO)
Overnight Success
Heza Kitten

#10 OVERNIGHT SUCCESS: Drops in for a tag and tries two turns for the first time, and either of those changes could wake her up. He set a solid pace last time out and has the tactical speed to clear most of the field from his outside post; #3 HEZA KITTEN: Drops back in for a tag and has been gelded recently. His start two back at this level was very good, and he’ll likely be running well late; #9 CALL THE CAT: Has questions to answer coming off the long layoff, but he’s a new gelding, the recent works are OK, and he’s protected from being claimed, which is always intriguing. DIRT SELECTIONS: RUCKSACK, OUR HONOR, CHATEAU.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/13/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $602.50

In a day and age where horses run less and less for a variety of reasons, the sport needs high-profile stars that stick around for a while. In a perfect world, these stars would be easy for fans young, old, diehard, and casual to follow. In other words, racing needs more horses like Fourstardave, who was honored with the 2018 renewal of a Grade 1 race named after him this past weekend.

A number of fellow turf writers compared Fourstardave winner Voodoo Song to the Sultan of Saratoga in the wake of his victory. With all due respect to both the writers and the horse in question, I respectfully disagree with that assessment. There is no horse actively in training that will (or, for that matter, can) do what Fourstardave managed to accomplish during his long career. This week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be posted to AndrewChampagne.com Monday, goes into greater detail on Fourstardave’s legacy and why he’s not remembered on a national scale as much as he probably should be.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We were washed out of the Pick Four when races were taken off the turf.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My action will revolve around #4 FLOWERS FOR LISA in the seventh. He’s the third choice on the morning line, and I hope it stays that way since he seems like the lone speed. I’ll put $10 on him to win, and I’ll single him in this 50-cent late Pick Four ticket that starts in the sixth and assumes turf races stay there: 2,7,8 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 with 1,4,8,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Flowers for Lisa, Race 7
Longshot: Fixed Point, Race 1

R1

Grandmas Favorite
Fooch
Fixed Point

#1 GRANDMAS FAVORITE: Is one of two Wesley Ward trainees in this race, and I slightly prefer him. He hasn’t run since December, but he was third behind a stakes-quality horse that day, and I think he’s the one to beat if he’s ready; #6 FOOCH: Is the other Ward runner and tries turf for the first time. He’s certainly got plenty of early zip, but he’s not necessarily bred to run well on turf; #3 FIXED POINT: Was claimed last time out by an outfit that doesn’t claim many runners and has been going well at the meet. Luis Saez hops aboard, and we may get a price.

R2

Asian’s Way
Anna Rae
Woodland entry

#6 ASIAN’S WAY: Ran well here earlier in the meet in a roughly-run event. She missed second by a neck despite having to check hard in the stretch, and given the win two back, it’s fair to assume she’s in peak form; #7 ANNA RAE: Had won two in a row prior to a misfire last time out, and she was claimed out of that race by Robertino Diodoro. She’s a top contender, although her chances go down in the event of a wet track; WOODLAND ENTRY: I prefer #1A PAULA’S PISTOL, who cuts back in distance and has yet to run a truly bad race this season. Kendrick Carmouche rides her back, and she could be prominent early.

R3

Shanghai Dreams
Hit a Provisional
Grand Banks

#7 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Rallied to be fourth in her debut, which turned out to be a strong race for the level. She adds Lasix, drops down in class, and doesn’t appear to catch the strongest maiden claiming field; #5 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Rallied strongly to just miss in her debut downstate. That race was contested at a shorter distance, and if that form translates to two turns, she’ll be very tough; #1 GRAND BANKS: Can’t be endorsed on top given her 0 for 20 career mark, but she’s finished second twice in three starts for this barn and figures to be running well late.

R4

Hawaiian Noises
Seismic Jolt
Fog of War

#7 HAWAIIAN NOISES: Has worked well ahead of his debut and has the pedigree to be a runner. He’s by Super Saver, out of a mare that’s produced several stakes horses, and runs for owner/breeder/trainer Wesley Ward; #10 SEISMIC JOLT: Hammered for $800,000 earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree, and has worked to the purchase price. I’m not crazy about the post, but he could be talented enough to work out a trip; #5 FOG OF WAR: Has a lot going for him ahead of his debut. He’s a Chad Brown trainee by War Front and out of a Galileo mare, and his second dam is multiple Grade 1 winner Riskaverse. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because he may want more ground.

R5

Party in the Sand
Tequila Sunday
Lightworker

#3 PARTY IN THE SAND: Takes a big drop to run in this maiden claiming event, and that could be enough in a race without much form shown by the other runners. She showed some zip last time out, and this barn’s horses have run well this meet; #2 TEQUILA SUNDAY: Has acquired some bad habits at the gate, and those cost her a runaway win three back. She was fourth at this level last time out, and this barn’s gotten hot of late; #4 LIGHTWORKER: May have bounced last time out after a good effort two back. A return to that form could get her a big piece of this.

R6

Lou’s Chardonnay
Orchid Party
Karen’s Gem

#7 LOU’S CHARDONNAY: Was a runaway winner earlier in the meet and was claimed that day by Steve Asmussen. She’s got plenty of early speed, and it helps that Santana has opted to ride her back; #2 ORCHID PARTY: Gets back to her preferred surface and drops down in class after two unsuccessful outings on turf. She won three in a row earlier this year and was third in a restricted stakes race; #8 KAREN’S GEM: Just missed against similar company last time out. A similar effort would give her a shot, and she could sit an ideal trip just behind a fast early pace.

R7

Flowers for Lisa
You’re to Blame
Take Your Guns

#4 FLOWERS FOR LISA: Has found his form of late for trainer Jorge Navarro and could get an ideal setup here. He’s probably the lone true speed horse in this field, and he capitalized on a similar scenario earlier in the meet; #2 YOU’RE TO BLAME: Has been running against stakes foes most of the year and drops down in class for this event. His best race puts him right there, but the recent running lines haven’t aged well; #5 TAKE YOUR GUNS: Was beaten just three lengths in the Grade 2 Brooklyn two back before not threatening Diversify in the Grade 2 Suburban. This is a more appropriate spot, though he may need more pace than he’s likely to get.

R8

My Roxy Girl
Out of Orbit
Take Charge Aubrey

#5 MY ROXY GIRL: Gets my tepid top pick in a very confusing race. She’s finished second five times in a row, but is a play for me here given the likely race shape, which could favor her late kick; #4 OUT OF ORBIT: Ran third against what seems like a much better group here last time out. Her win two back was good, and it seems like she may have figured things out; #7 TAKE CHARGE AUBREY: Tried stakes company at Finger Lakes last time out, and those waters proved too deep. She cuts back in distance, gets Jose Ortiz, and will likely get plenty of support at the windows.

R9

Cause I’m Alex (MTO)
Mobridge
Vincento

#11 MOBRIDGE: Generally runs the same race every time out and was claimed by Danny Gargan, who does great work with new acquisitions. He’s run very well here in the past and beat similar company here a season ago; #8 VINCENTO: Has improved since switching to turf and beat my top pick last time out. Two turns on turf is a question mark, but he did win going two turns on dirt last winter at Aqueduct; IMPERIO ENTRY: #1A PECULIAR SENSATION seems like the main speed in here, but don’t sleep on #1 BRIMSTONE, who returns to turf and gets Luis Saez. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAUSE I’M ALEX, IMPERIO ENTRY, CHARMING INDY.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/12/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $602.50

Saturday was a pretty horrible day for those in charge of determining both which races would stay on the turf and when to make those decisions. Two races in the middle of the card were taken off the turf just 40 minutes before post time of the day’s first race, while the 11th was taken off the turf after the eighth race was run. The latter decision meant that several multi-race wagers ending in that race ended with an “ALL” payout, which is far from ideal.

We can’t control the weather. I understand that. With that being said, it’s not like those in charge didn’t know about the condition of the turf course and incoming threats to it. If you had a strong opinion in yesterday’s finale on the grass and played it as such in the Pick Six or late Pick Four, you got hosed, as your “ALL” tickets were worth less than others who used multiple horses (and as such hit for multiple combinations). Simply put, there has to be a better way to do this moving forward.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I can’t complain with the trip Mr Cub got in the Lure Stakes, but he folded turning for home. The losing streak continues, as we dropped $20.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a shot at the late Pick Four (assuming races carded for turf stay there). It looks like a fun sequence, and I’ll try to extract some value out of #3 SANTA MONICA in the Waya. My 50-cent ticket is as follows: 4,7 with ALL with 3 with 1,2,6,7,9,10.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Malibu Stacy, Race 4
Longshot: Liora, Race 5

R1

Slot
Diodoro entry
Take Notice

#5 SLOT: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a failed turf experiment last time out. The Pletcher barn has been unusually aggressive of late, so the drop isn’t necessarily a red flag, and his usual dirt race would make him tough; DIODORO ENTRY: I prefer #2B YOU’RE KILLIN ME, who drops back in for a tag after a pair of OK races against starter allowance foes. Having said that, Cohen’s listed aboard both parts of the entry, meaning one part of it is likely to scratch, and I can’t pick it on top with that uncertainty in mind; #4 TAKE NOTICE: Gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario after fading at this route earlier in the meet. That was against a better group, and the lone work since hints that he bounced out of it well.

R2

Singapore Trader
Joe’s Smokin Gun
Sir Frost

#9 SINGAPORE TRADER: Drops into the maiden claiming ranks after several failed tries against special weight foes. He was second behind an eventual stakes winner here last year, and two turns could be the route he wants; #5 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Is 0 for 12 with three straight second-place finishes coming into this event. He’s shown improvement of late, though, and Ricardo Santana, Jr., hops aboard; #7 SIR FROST: Merits a look at a price. He likely needed the race last time out off the long layoff, and he showed significant improvement in his first start for Barclay Tagg, whose runners have been firing this meet.

R3

Data Driven
Yourdreamsormine
Big Guy Ian

#6 DATA DRIVEN: Was claimed by Robertino Diodoro following a second-place finish against similar foes last time out. His dirt sprints have been solid, and he’d benefit from a wet track if one was to present itself; #1 YOURDREAMSORMINE: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but drops in for a tag for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. He has back races that would win this if repeated, although those races took place over Gulfstream Park’s surface (which is very different from Saratoga); #2 BIG GUY IAN: Has ample early speed and was claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez. He’ll likely set the early fractions, but the winless local mark is a major concern.

R4

Malibu Stacy
Fire Key
Rumble Doll

#2 MALIBU STACY: Seems like the lone true early speed horse in this turf sprint. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s run against stakes-quality horses all year and will likely relish the class relief; #3 FIRE KEY: Was 2 for 2 at this route last summer and caught a very wet turf course a few weeks ago, rendering that race irrelevant. She could sit a great stalking trip beneath the rider that piloted her to both of those 2017 victories; #7 RUMBLE DOLL: Is a late-running closer that likes this route and would benefit from a speed duel. There’s a chance she’s past her prime, but this is a high-percentage barn that can’t be ignored.

R5

Multi Strategy
Liora
Speedy Solution

#6 MULTI STRATEGY: Fetched $240,000 at auction as a weanling and is bred to be a very good turf horse. Her turf Tomlinson rating of 341 is the highest in the field, and trainer Chad Brown must be respected; #8 LIORA: Closed powerfully in her debut, which was rained off the turf. She’s bred up and down for grass and could improve at second asking; #1 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Didn’t have the easiest of trips in her debut downstate, but was beaten just two lengths despite a pedigree that suggests she wants to go long. A cleaner trip could be enough to put her right there.

R6

Winandyourin Gin
Kiska
Feedback

#1 WINANDYOURIN GIN: Gets a tepid nod in an incredibly competitive 2-year-old race. She raced evenly going shorter and should improve with experience and added distance; #8 KISKA: Has worked well ahead of her debut for Todd Pletcher. Her local drills are solid, and progeny of Into Mischief are usually precocious; #3 FEEDBACK: Has been working steadily ahead of her unveiling, and the recent five-furlong drills are telling. She’s hinted at talent, but may want to go even longer than today’s distance.

R7

Frostie Anne (MTO)
Sweet Sting
Transaction Tax

#7 SWEET STING: Chased the talented La Moneda last time out and was third in a stakes race two back. If this stays on the turf, she’s strictly the one to beat based on her recent form; #4 TRANSACTION TAX: Clearly figures to be the one to catch, given her ample early speed. She was third last time out at this level, and while she may be better around one turn, she’s won going two turns in the past; #3 GONDORA: Makes her American debut and gets Lasix for the first time. Her prior connections thought enough of her to try her against some of Germany’s best fillies a season ago. DIRT SELECTIONS: FROSTIE ANNE, STAY FOND, MAXIMUS BEAUTY.

R8

Tight Ten
Call Paul
Sir Truebadour

#4 TIGHT TEN: Cruised to victory in his debut, where he easily dispatched 11 other rivals in wire-to-wire fashion. He’s bred to be very good, and it’s tough to argue with these connections given the success they’ve had this summer; #2 CALL PAUL: Earned this field’s highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in a debut win at Delaware Park. He sold for $210,000 earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree, and there’s a chance he could be a freak; #5 SIR TRUEBADOUR: Wired the field in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor last time out and certainly has lots of early speed. They did crawl home that day, though, and Santana opts to ride the other entrant from this barn.

R9

Santa Monica
Mom’s On Strike
Lottie

#3 SANTA MONICA: Has won two of three starts since coming to America and most recently took the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She beat a pretty good group that day, and a similar performance here would likely make her a formidable foe; #5 MOM’S ON STRIKE: Has won five of her last seven starts and was beaten just two lengths in the Grade 2 New York, a race whose second and third-place finishers have already come back to win. Joe Sharp has gotten off to a great start at the meet, and she’s shown she can get this distance; #1 LOTTIE: May be a cut below these, but is one of only a few that’s ever shown early speed. She was up close throughout last time out, and a similar trip here seems likely.

R10

Ayers Rock (MTO)
Girl at War
Structural Deficit

#2 GIRL AT WAR: Ran well in her debut despite being bred up and down for turf and forced to run on a wet main track. She’s by promising sire Declaration of War and out of a Galileo mare, and she should step forward at second asking in a tough-to-figure finale; #1 STRUCTURAL DEFICIT: Is one of the better-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds, being by the late Scat Daddy and out of a Tapit mare. The pedigree says she’ll take to turf, and she merits respect coming from the powerhouse Chad Brown barn; #6 TRISH THE DISH: Raced evenly in her debut after a slow break and was not helped by a very slow pace. She’s bred to want two turns, and Luis Saez sticking with her is a plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: AYERS ROCK, GIRL AT WAR, STRUCTURAL DEFICIT.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/11/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $622.50

Today’s big event on track is the Grade 1 Fourstardave, but it could very well be overshadowed by an annual event taking place at the Top of the Stretch. That’s the Saratoga Stumble, being run by our own Sam Hollingsworth. The premise is something like this: The entire town of Mechanicville shows up, buys matching t-shirts, and drinks itself into oblivion. Apparently, it’s a blast.

To those stumbling along today: Have fun and be safe. Most importantly, though, make sure Sam pulls through in one piece!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I bet Thirteen Songs thinking she’d close into a fast pace, not that she’d help make said fast pace. We dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I apologize in advance to my editor, because my play comes late in the card. It sure seems like #5 MR CUB is the lone speed in the Lure Stakes (race 10), and I need to play him. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I really hope we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lyrical Lady, Race 3
Longshot: La Naturel, Race 7

R1

Prognostication
Lemonist
Gosilently

#6 PROGNOSTICATION: Hasn’t run in 10 months, but is protected from being claimed, which is always an encouraging sign. He could benefit from the likely race shape and figures to be running well late; #1 LEMONIST: Has been gelded since his last start in December and sports a pair of flashy local workouts. This is the weakest field he’s faced since breaking his maiden in 2016; #8 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in each of his last 11 starts, most of which have come for today’s connections. He just missed here last summer and figures to be prominent early.

R2

Chief Executive
Calumet entry
Exchequer

#4 CHIEF EXECUTIVE: Has several strong local works ahead of his debut for prominent connections. It’s tough to debut going seven furlongs, but he’s bred to be a good one and has worked accordingly; CALUMET ENTRY: #1A SOUTHERN PHANTOM could win at second asking, but he’ll be bet heavily for reasons that have very little to do with his ability. He may need to show more early speed here than he did in his debut; #8 EXCHEQUER: Fetched $150,000 at auction last fall and has worked well for red-hot connections. He may be bred better for turf, but his talent could be enough to get him home on dirt.

R3

Lyrical Lady
Virginia Eloise
Mucho Amor

#3 LYRICAL LADY: Was one of the most impressive debut winners of the meet and figures to be favored in the Grade 2 Adirondack. She won by nearly six lengths and appeared to have plenty left in reserve; #5 VIRGINIA ELOISE: Finished well in her debut at Belmont and is bred to want lots of distance. She showed she could rate a bit that day, and that could come in handy here; #1 MUCHO AMOR: Graduated at Keeneland and sports a recent bullet workout on the training track. Wesley Ward is one of the top 2-year-old trainers in the country, and he cannot be ignored here.

R4

Starting Point (MTO)
Teachable Moment
Noble Nebraskan

#8 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Closed to be third in his debut and has a pedigree that hints he could embrace more ground. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for these connections; #12 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Sports an impressive pedigree and merits respect if he draws in off the AE list. It’s tough to debut at this route, but he’s worked well and may be a nice price; #2 WINNING FACTOR: Was second in the race my top pick exits and stretches out after some solid local workouts. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because he’s not necessarily bred to want two turns. DIRT SELECTIONS: STARTING POINT, IAN GLASS, TEACHABLE MOMENT.

R5

Payne (MTO)
Unlockthepotential
Lunaire

#3 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL: Stretches out after being beaten less than a length in his first start since October. He likely needed that race as a tightener, and that day’s winner ran well in the Quick Call earlier this week; #6 LUNAIRE: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown an ability to run well late, and that’s valuable given the early pace signed on here. He could shake up the exotics at a price; #2 MOROCCO: Was almost certainly short last time out in his first start since the fall, and the blinkers come back on in his second start off the bench. That could get him more involved early at a big number. DIRT SELECTIONS: PAYNE, CLUTCH CARGO, MESOTHERM.

R6

Road Home
Empire of War
Chase and Colorado

#5 ROAD HOME: Closed to be second in his debut for a barn that doesn’t often win with first-time starters. There’s reason to expect improvement here, and if that happens, he could be tough; #7 EMPIRE OF WAR: Has worked well on the training track ahead of his unveiling. Todd Pletcher’s runners must be respected, although this one may be better-bred for turf; #4 CHASE AND COLORADO: Is the other Pletcher-trained first-time starter. He’s by Tapit, which means he likely wants as much ground as possible.

R7

Aunt Babe (MTO)
La Naturel
Conquest Tizfire

#5 LA NATUREL: Has yet to run a bad race in her career and is a closer in a race that seems to boast tons of early speed. She was third beaten less than a length earlier in the meet, and we may get a price given this trainer’s small barn; #2 CONQUEST TIZFIRE: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but has had ample chances to win and seems to prefer settling for minor awards. She looked like a winner in mid-stretch last time, but she let the eventual winner battle back; #4 MAJESTIC WON: Took to the turf well last time out, when she graduated by nearly three lengths downstate. Luis Saez signs on, and this one figures to be involved from the outset. DIRT SELECTIONS: AUNT BABE, DANYELLI, QUEEN MUM.

R8

Delta Prince
Heart to Heart
Divisidero

#2 DELTA PRINCE: Has come out of the shadow of older sister Royal Delta and turned into a top-class turf horse. His win in the Grade 2 King Edward was strong, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip behind a hot pace; #5 HEART TO HEART: Is one of the most fun horses to root for given his longevity and the fact that he may be better than ever at age seven. He won two Grade 1 races earlier this year, but the presence of #6 VOODOO SONG means he almost certainly won’t be alone on the lead; #3 DIVISIDERO: Is a deep closer that will benefit from a fast pace. He may want a bit longer, but the quicker they go early, the more he’ll like it.

R9

Mask
Breaking the Rules
Always a Suspect

#3 MASK: Cuts back to seven furlongs, which may be the trip he wants. He may not have turned into a top-class 3-year-old, but his best race could win this and he should be able to sit just off the pace; #5 BREAKING THE RULES: Was second in a swiftly-run allowance last time out and seems like a one-run sprinter that should get better as he gets older. A fast pace would benefit him, and this distance likely hits him right between the eyes; #4 ALWAYS A SUSPECT: Likes Saratoga and exits a win earlier in the meet (albeit against weaker foes). All three of his starts over this track have been solid, and Robertino Diodoro has a strong record with new acquisitions.

R10

Mr Cub
Conquest Panthera
Zennor

#5 MR CUB: Could be the lone speed in this race, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. He was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 2 Wise Dan last time out, and he could be talented enough to lead this field the whole way; #7 CONQUEST PANTHERA: Hasn’t won in a while, but chased Delta Prince in the Grade 2 King Edward and can show some early zip if he has to. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he’s riding as well as anyone at the meet; #9 ZENNOR: Has won three in a row, including this race last year, but he has not started in more than a year. If he comes back ready to run, he’s obviously a contender, but that’s a sizable “if.”

R11

Shanghai Dreams
Hit a Provisional
Fancycase

#13 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Is emblematic of an oddity here, as several major contenders reside on the AE list and need scratches to run. She debuted with a fourth-place finish in a very solid race for the level and drops in for a tag; #12 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Rallied to be second at this level in her debut and is another that needs some luck to draw in. This barn has quietly gotten off to a solid start at the meet, and she could improve in her second outing; #10 FANCYCASE: Seems best of the main body of the field given the early speed she’s flashed of late. The body of the field seems light on horses that can pass others late, so the speed could be helpful.