Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/10/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $642.50

News broke yesterday (per Equibase’s Dave Litfin and DRF’s David Grening) that Wednesday’s fifth race was run not at the listed distance of a mile and a sixteenth, but at a mile and an eighth. With all due respect to the powers-that-be at the New York Racing Association, how was this allowed to happen?

You don’t see baseball diamonds with bases 95 feet apart instead of 90, or NFL fields 110 yards long instead of 100. Forgive me for thinking this is unreasonable, but if a race is listed with a 3:15 post time and a distance of a mile and a sixteenth, racing fans should be able to expect a race at that time and distance. We need to get the small things right in order to tackle the big issues this sport has, and it’s incredibly frustrating that something as basic as it gets in horse racing was mishandled.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We took a shot with a price, but Gio Lucky didn’t fire, so we dropped $18.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll concentrate on the third race, where I think #5 THIRTEEN SONGS could benefit a great deal from the class drop. I’ll keep things simple and put $20 on her to win in hopes that we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Elios Milos, Race 6
Longshot: Thirteen Songs, Race 3

R1

Cavallotto
Ninetyeighttwo
Planet Trailblazer

#6 CAVALLOTTO: Was fourth against better company and drops down to run in this event. He’s won two of his four career dirt sprints, including his lone start at this seven-furlong distance; #5 NINETYEIGHTTWO: Is a huge price on the morning line, but I think we’ll see something much shorter come post time. I’ll be happy if I’m wrong, though, as his two dirt sprints earlier this year at Tampa were both wins and Joel Rosario takes the call for a smaller barn; #4 PLANET TRAILBLAZER: Takes a colossal drop in class for his first race since October. He’s been gelded since his last effort and won here a season ago going longer, and while he probably wins if he’s right, the drop and this barn’s record with horses off of long layoffs will entice me to play against him on most of my tickets.

R2

Mrs Vargas (MTO)
Amazing Audrey
Secret Quality

#4 AMAZING AUDREY: Drops in for a tag for the first time and cuts back in distance after two straight tries at a mile and a quarter. She should appreciate the class relief, and her best efforts have come with today’s pilot in the irons; #6 SECRET QUALITY: Has been competitive in both of her career starts, which came at this level. Mike Maker claimed her following her most recent performance, and she should appreciate two turns; #5 LOVE TO SHARE: Obviously didn’t care for sloppy dirt at Monmouth and returns to her preferred surface here. She crossed the wire first in her last try for a tag at Gulfstream, and she figures to be moving well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: MRS VARGAS, MISS LOYALTY, GOLDEN VALE.

R3

Thirteen Songs
You Know Too
Luz Mimi

#5 THIRTEEN SONGS: Found the Grade 2 Honorable Miss a bit too tough, as she ran a distant fourth behind Finley’sluckycharm. This seems like the right level, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; #4 YOU KNOW TOO: Has been running against stakes company for most of her career, and is undefeated in non-stakes races. The blinkers go on, but it seems like she wants to go much longer, which is a red flag; #3 LUZ MIMI: Is a proven closer that seems to be in good form. She’s won two of four races this year, and both of those wins have come with today’s rider aboard.

R4

Long Gray Line
Malibu Strings
Lookin At Blessing

#2 LONG GRAY LINE: Drops down in class and adds blinkers for a barn that’s had a tremendous year to this point. He boasts a win going two turns, as well as a recent bullet workout at Churchill Downs; #7 MALIBU STRINGS: Ships up from Gulfstream Park, drops down in class, and tries two turns on dirt for the first time. That’s a lot of changes, and while any one of them could wake him up, this seems like a panicky drop; #1 LOOKIN AT BLESSING: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops down in class and stretches out to two turns, where he’s run credible races before.

R5

Mo Wheels Up (MTO)
Two Shakes
Fierce Scarlett

#7 TWO SHAKES: Fetched $310,000 at auction last year and is bred to be a very good turf horse. She’s by Exchange Rate, out of a Dynaformer mare, and trained by Wesley Ward, one of the top first-out conditioners in the country; #3 FIERCE SCARLETT: Goes out for the always-formidable Chad Brown barn and is by the late Scat Daddy, a prominent turf influence. Her most recent turf work was solid, and she could be a runner; #6 GLOBAL EXCHANGE: Has a very similar pedigree to my top selection and goes out for Jimmy Toner, who certainly knows how to win with turf horses. She may need a race, but it wouldn’t be a shock if she shows talent at a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MO WHEELS UP, TWO SHAKES, PAKHET.

R6

Elios Milos
Leap to Glory
Proletariat

#6 ELIOS MILOS: Won his debut and was a credible second in his first try against winners. He may have been a bit too close to the pace last time out, and there appears to be some speed for him to chase here; #4 LEAP TO GLORY: Put it all together last time out in his second start for Charlton Baker. That came against a suspect field, but Rosario keeps the mount, and when this barn gets a horse going in the right direction, look out; #3 PROLETARIAT: Makes his first start since a trainer switch and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez. He’s got plenty of early zip, and his usual race would likely get him a piece of this.

R7

Empressof the Nile
Violet Blue
Bengala

#1 EMPRESSOF THE NILE: Chased Grade 2 foes last time out and drops into allowance company. She’s shown an affinity for marathon distances and broke her maiden here last summer; #3 VIOLET BLUE: Has done her best work going very long on turf and was fourth in a stakes race downstate last month. There’s a chance she’s in career-best form, and she should be moving well late; #6 BENGALA: Wired a lesser field last time out and hasn’t run a bad race since coming to America. She likely won’t get an easy lead here, but the inner turf is kind to horses with tactical zip.

R8

Theaterintheround
Cause Me Grief
Questeq

#9 THEATERINTHEROUND: Drops in for a tag after running fourth in her first try against winners. It’s an aggressive drop, and her past races seem a cut above those possessed by the rest of the field; #7 CAUSE ME GRIEF: Was claimed last time out by Patrick Reynolds and figures to be prominent early. Javier Castellano hops aboard, and she may be the one they have to run down; #1 QUESTEQ: Hasn’t won in a while, but was a good second at big odds against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. This barn’s runners have fared well at the meet, and she can’t be ignored in vertical exotics.

R9

Always Sunshine
Mr. Crow
My Boy Tate

#5 ALWAYS SUNSHINE: Gets my nod in a race light on numbers, but heavy on talent. This one was impressive in winning a minor stakes race last time out, and unlike many of these, he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #2 MR. CROW: Found the Grade 1 Vanderbilt to be too tough, but has a track record of success at Saratoga and should appreciate the class relief. He may be fastest out of the gate, and that could demoralize some of these rivals; #1 MY BOY TATE: Returns to the races for his first outing since February. He got very good over the winter, but this isn’t an easy spot and the rail draw isn’t ideal.

R10

Lost in Manhattan
Wisecrack
Not That Brady

#7 LOST IN MANHATTAN: Was fourth in his debut on dirt and goes to the grass, a surface he’s bred to like. His experience should help him, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; #6 WISECRACK: Fetched $125,000 at auction last year and is bred to be precocious. He’s by The Factor, whose offspring tend to like turf, and trainer Rick Violette is solid with debuting runners; #13 NOT THAT BRADY: Is unlikely to draw in off the AE list, but must be used if he does. He’s out of the mare Lisa’s Booby Trap, one of the best stories in racing during her career, and he’s worked well here of late.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/9/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $660.50

I hate using this section to have to address people with no sense of decency and/or respect, but here we are. During Wednesday’s card at Saratoga, NYRA paddock reporter Maggie Wolfendale tweeted news of a horrifying encounter with an older man who ran up to her, grabbed her hair, and bragged about it.

If you think this behavior, or behavior like it, is in any way acceptable, please stop reading anything I produce (either in The Pink Sheet or on my website) immediately. I want nothing to do with anyone who thinks it’s okay to physically harass women in that way. Additionally, if you saw this happen and can identify the perpetrator in question, please contact NYRA security so this clown can be banned from the premises.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Speke didn’t break and was second all the way around the racetrack, thus foiling $20 worth of double tickets.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: It’s another perplexing card, so I’m treading fairly lightly. I’ll focus on the fifth race, and while #9 POTOMAC is the horse to beat, my exactas key possible overlay #7 GIO LUCKY, who’s wheeled back quickly by a trainer who has shown an ability to win with such runners. I’ll use that one above and below #1 FLATEXCEL, #3 SOUTHEAST, and Potomac in $3 bets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Pink Twist, Race 7
Longshot: Codrington, Race 8

R1

Time Warp
Molly’s Party
Miss After School

#4 TIME WARP: Gets my nod in a race where I could not possibly have less of an opinion (heck of a start, right?). This pick is solely because I think she’s much, much better than she showed in her debut, where she missed the break and paid dearly for it; #6 MOLLY’S PARTY: Was third going shorter early in the meet and stretches out at second asking. I’m not sure she wants to go this long, but of the ones in here with experience, she has by far the best recent effort; #7 MISS AFTER SCHOOL: Hasn’t worked particularly quickly ahead of her debut, but she’s bred to want this trip, Joel Rosario signs on, and she’ll likely be a square price.

R2

Brooklyn Gerty
Malarkey
Free Kitty

#6 BROOKLYN GERTY: Returns after more than a year away and has a few recent works that indicate she’s ready to run. Additionally, she catches what seems like a soft field for the level; #3 MALARKEY: Has finished second in both of her dirt starts and ran reasonably well last time out at this level. John Velazquez keeps the mount, and she figures to be prominent early; #1 FREE KITTY: Is 0 for 13 lifetime, but generally runs the same race every time out, and such an effort is likely good enough for a piece of it here.

R3

Dove Shoot
The Mason Factor
Cross Multiply

#1 DOVE SHOOT: Led most of the way in his debut going slightly longer downstate. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and his early zip should be on display given the rail draw; #8 THE MASON FACTOR: Woke up last time out going short on turf at Belmont. He was second going seven furlongs that day, and while I’m a bit skeptical of if he’ll want even less ground, a repeat of that effort gives him a shot; #5 CROSS MULTIPLY: Adds blinkers after tiring going longer earlier in the meet. He’s got experience going short on turf, and he may be in a position to sit back and make one big late run beneath Joel Rosario.

R4

Single Gem (MTO)
Congruity
Phone Funky Munky

#3 CONGRUITY: Wired a similar field downstate that included many runners in this event. He had a perfect trip that day, but this heat seems to have a similar lack of early speed, one he could capitalize on; #10 PHONE FUNKY MUNKY: Drops in for a tag after three unsuccessful starts against allowance foes. He ran well here twice last year and could appreciate the class relief; #5 MICHAEL WONDERFUL: Was a beaten favorite last time out at this level, but his lone prior start around two turns was his lone win to date. In that race, he beat my top pick in this very event. DIRT SELECTIONS: SINGLE GEM, MAIMO, ESPRESSO CALIENTE.

R5

Potomac
Southeast
Gio Lucky

#9 POTOMAC: Will likely be favored after putting it all together in the mud at Belmont Park. He tries winners, and while he may be overbet, he seems like the most likely winner; #3 SOUTHEAST: Drops down in class after falling victim to a paceless race earlier in the meet. His sprints from earlier in the year weren’t bad, and he’d benefit from fast early fractions; #7 GIO LUCKY: Gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano and is wheeled back quickly by a barn that’s had success with similar runners in the past.

R6

Secret Passage (MTO)
Ticonderoga
Aquaphobia

#4 TICONDEROGA: Was my top pick in the rescheduled Lure Stakes and looms large provided this race stays on the turf. He’s run against top-class opposition in the past and has done some of his best running around two turns; #7 AQUAPHOBIA: Is another that may benefit from going to a two-turn route of ground. Toss the Grade 2 San Luis Rey, and you’re left with a runner that hasn’t run a bad race since being claimed last fall; #8 SIDING SPRING: Returns off a long layoff and figures to be prominent early. He’s been gelded, and he may have the speed to clear this field early. DIRT SELECTIONS: SECRET PASSAGE, TEAM COLORS, SIDING SPRING.

R7

Pink Twist
Puffery
My Girl Annie

#5 PINK TWIST: Beat many of today’s rivals when second in an allowance downstate. She goes two turns for the first time, but she’s worked well and has the pedigree to handle this trip; #2 PUFFERY: Was beaten a length and a half by my top selection last time out. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, and John Velazquez retains the mount; #1 MY GIRL ANNIE: Improved when stretched out to two turns last week. She was second that day, and while this is a better field, at least the distance isn’t much of a question mark.

R8

Goodbye Brockley
Kreesie
Codrington

#2 GOODBYE BROCKLEY: Won going long two back before finishing a close-up second going seven furlongs. She gets an extra furlong here, and that seems like the trip she wants; #3 KREESIE: Beat my top pick two back and tries two turns for the first time. She’s got plenty of talent, but she may need more pace in front of her than she’ll get; #7 CODRINGTON: Has run well here in the past and may have been compromised by the yielding going earlier in the meet. If the ground is on the firmer side of the spectrum, it will play to her strengths, and in that instance, the morning line strikes me as an overlay.

R9

Mama Mary
Andretta
Something Joyful

#7 MAMA MARY: Ran well in her debut (which came up as a pretty tough event for the level) before not taking to a sloppy main track at all last time out. She goes back to the grass here, and assuming this stays on that surface, I’m expecting an improved performance; #2 ANDRETTA: Just missed when entered for a tag last time out, and was also very competitive here last year when put up to second in a DQ that puzzles me to this day. She’s shown talent and may get first run turning for home; #3 SOMETHING JOYFUL: Was second in her debut and is certainly a competitor if she’s right, but she hasn’t been seen in 11 months, so she may very well need this race.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/8/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $680.50

Monday’s feature was the Cab Calloway division of the New York Stallion Series. Therapist was a heavy favorite when entries were drawn, and his presence was a factor (though perhaps not the only one) in the race scratching down to a field of just two other runners. Naturally, Therapist cruised home in a romp.

I had a similar complaint last year when the Grade 3 Shuvee ran with just a three-horse field, and I’ll bring it out of the mothballs here: Stakes races at Saratoga should never, EVER go with a three-horse field. This is supposed to be the biggest meet of the year on the east coast, and it should represent the best of what this sport has to offer. Three-horse fields do not fit that description, and they never will.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: We ended a bit of a slump in the pick box, but both mid-priced horses given out in this section failed to fire. We dropped $20.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I found this card pretty tough, and I’m not in love with anything. I’ll attempt to make some money with $5 doubles starting in the eighth. #2 SPEKE is bred up and down to love two turns and may be the lone speed in the field. I’ll single him and use #1 WORLD OF TROUBLE, #2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL, #6 SHANGROYAL, and #10 STOLEN PISTOL in the ninth (the Quick Call Stakes).

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Speke, Race 8
Longshot: Held Accountable, Race 6

R1

Brockton Geoge
Sumner
Kenyan

#3 BROCKTON GEORGE: Takes a big drop in class and presents an intriguing alternative to the likely favorites. He has back form that would be good enough to win, and two turns won’t be his undoing; #1 SUMNER: Takes a nosedive in class after running fifth in a $100,000 stakes race last time out. He’ll take money based on his connections, and the shallower waters here could be a relief, but he’s yet to show that he can handle this distance; #6 KENYAN: Hasn’t won in a while, but has made a habit of picking up minor awards at this level. His lone start here was a win, and he’d benefit from a lively pace up front.

R2

Promise Me Roses (MTO)
Fiveinthemorning
Truly Courageous

#2 FIVEINTHEMORNING: Just missed when dropped to this level last time out at Belmont. Her debut at this route last summer saw her run a decent third against an OK group, and she should be running well late; #5 TRULY COURAGEOUS: Took a step forward when third last time out downstate, and the lack of other serious early speed in here could move her forward even further. She could be the one they have to catch turning for home; #4 PAZ THE WINE: Is 0 for 13 and impossible to endorse on top, but she’s been very competitive at this level and adds blinkers for a barn that’s due to get going at the meet. DIRT SELECTIONS: PROMISE ME ROSES, PUFFIN PATTY, CATANIA ROSE.

R3

Beautiful Buzz
Tiffany’s Vision
She’sakittykat

#4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ: Adds blinkers first off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez and seems like the main speed in here. Rodriguez has gotten a bit aggressive of late, so this barn could start racking up wins pretty quickly; #1 TIFFANY’S VISION: Seems to have figured things out of late and was third against similar company earlier in the meet. She figures to be the one to provide opposition to my top pick early on, especially given the rail draw; #2 SHE’SAKITTYKAT: Would benefit from a speed duel given her late-running style. She was second against similar-level foes downstate and gets a rider switch to Joe Bravo.

R4

Transistor (MTO)
Factor This
Killeen

#2 FACTOR THIS: Was fourth against much better last time out and handily beat this level of competition two back. He should benefit from the likely pace scenario and figures to be prominent; #10 KILLEEN: Made a huge middle move before flattening out against allowance foes. He’s 2 for 2 when running for a claiming tag, and he could be good enough to overcome the outside draw; #9 JAILHOUSE KITTEN: Won two in a row before checking in third last time out, and Mike Maker reached in to claim him back. Irad Ortiz hopping aboard can’t be overlooked. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSISTOR, FACTOR THIS, HOARD.

R5

Crazy Life
Pier Forty
Somelikeithotbrown

#1 CRAZY LIFE: Fetched $145,000 at auction and has worked steadily ahead of his debut. He’s bred to like turf, and this doesn’t strike me as the strongest field for the level; #9 PIER FORTY: Hammered for $250,000 earlier this year and is bred to be a good one. He’s by City Zip and out of an A.P. Indy mare. This is a barn that can win with first-time starters; #2 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Clearly didn’t take to a sloppy dirt track in his debut, and I’m willing to throw the race out. He’s bred to like the grass, and this barn’s runners tend to get better with experience.

R6

Lady Bergen
Held Accountable
Tiznow’s Smile

#3 LADY BERGEN: Disappointed when favored last time out at Monmouth, but that turned out to be a very fast heat. There are many need-the-lead types in here, and this one appears to be fastest out of the gate; #6 HELD ACCOUNTABLE: Has excuses for each of her last three starts (sloppy track, layoff, too far), and she could benefit from a lively pace. This seems like the right combination of route and level, and we may get a price; #1 TIZNOW’S SMILE: Hasn’t won in a while, but gets the services of Joel Rosario, who may take her off of a fast pace.

R7

Mesotherm (MTO)
High Moon
Flyoff

#3 HIGH MOON: Projects as the main speed in this inner turf race, and those horses are always dangerous. He’s won three of his last five starts, and top turf rider Geroux gets the call here; #5 FLYOFF: Responded to the drop in class last time out with a runaway victory and tries winners for the first time. He’s never been two turns before, but he has the pedigree to handle such a trip; #9 FUEL THE BERN: Stretches out after running third in a turf sprint earlier in the meet. Irad Ortiz has ridden him to both of his career wins, and he hops aboard here. DIRT SELECTIONS: MESOTHERM, TRES EQUIS, HIGH MOON.

R8

Speke
New York Hero
J J’s Dreaming

#2 SPEKE: Stretches out to two turns and is bred to run as long as possible. He was second in a solid race for the level last time out and seems like the main speed in here; #5 NEW YORK HERO: Makes his first start for Jonathan Thomas and has a pedigree that suggests he wants this trip. He may have needed his most recent race and could improve here; #1 J J’S DREAMING: Earned a pair of big Beyer Speed Figures downstate and could be favored, but he’s winless in his last five starts, and his two-turn races don’t seem as sharp as his one-turn efforts.

R9

World of Trouble
Stolen Pistol
Majestic Dunhill

#1 WORLD OF TROUBLE: Scratched out of the Grade 2 Amsterdam to await this spot and is bred to like the turf. He’s very fast early and could give the rest of this field a lot of work to do turning for home; #10 STOLEN PISTOL: Has won two in a row against state-breds and is 3 for 4 going short on turf. Joe Sharp’s figured out what he wants to do, and he should be going the right way late; #2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL: Is 2 for 2 this season and won a minor stakes race at Monmouth last time out. His maiden win came at this route last summer, and he doesn’t need to be too far back early, which could help him.

R10

Giant Boo Boo
Wild Colonial Boy
Dab

#8 GIANT BOO BOO: Was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart last time out and seems like the most logical selection in a very confusing finale. Throw out the turf experiment two back, and his body of work looks considerably better; #12 WILD COLONIAL BOY: Ships up from Gulfstream for a trainer that doesn’t run many in New York. The addition of blinkers could help him, since he’s been slow into stride in both of his prior outings; #2 DAB: Has had plenty of chances, but seems like the main early speed here and can’t be totally ignored. He’s never finished worse than third in three prior starts over this main track.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/6/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $700.50

I hate having to use this space to explain archaic betting rules, but here we are. In Sunday’s first race, part of a Joe Sharp-trained entry was a late scratch. By rule, the other half of the entry ran for purse money only and was not an available betting interest. Of course, the other half of the entry won as much the best, and the second-place finisher was deemed the winner for wagering purposes. It’s a weird rule that’s burned a lot of horseplayers in the past, and I wish there was a better one in place (as I’ve explained in this section in the past and will explain again in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which goes live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night).

As far as the pick box is concerned, both the Sharp entry and runner-up Into Mystic were marked as winners. The lone handicapper who had the Sharp entry on top had Into Mystic second, so he would’ve scratched into the wagering “winner” anyway. We agreed that this seemed like the fairest way to go about it. Hopefully, that sits well with everyone, and hopefully, we never have to deal with such a situation again!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We were alive to Timeline in the Grand Slam, but that one sputtered turning for home as Realm pulled off a big upset. We dropped $24.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I like two horses on today’s program that figure to be bettable prices. I’ll put $5 to win and place on #1 OVER RIDER (race one) and #3 MARCH X PRESS (race eight, turf only). If one wins, it’s probably a profitable day. If both win, we stand to make a really nice chunk of change.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Therapist, Race 2
Longshot: March X Press, Race 8

R1

Over Rider
Bon Raison
Playwright

#1 OVER RIDER: Likely needed his last race and drops way down in class. His best efforts have come in dirt routes, and he could get plenty of pace to rate behind in this spot; #4 BON RAISON: Takes an alarming drop to run here for one of the highest-percentage barns on the circuit. He’s certainly got back races that would win this, but the degree of the drop is a red flag; #7 PLAYWRIGHT: Was second against similar-level foes last time out downstate and makes sense given his early zip. He’s shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and that could be a big help.

R2

Therapist
Stoney Bennett (MTO)
Collective Effort

#2 THERAPIST: Is incredibly imposing given his wins over open company. He cruised home against state-breds last time out at Belmont, and his usual race would make him very tough to beat; #7 COLLECTIVE EFFORT: Chased Therapist home last time out and has woken up since being switched to the turf. He figures to be running well late; #1 CODRINGTON: Makes sense if you can toss her last-out effort, and the yielding turf seems like an OK reason to draw a line through the running line. She could appreciate firmer ground and may be a price.

R3

Devils Halo
Ajnadeen
Hollywood Star

#4 DEVILS HALO: Was impressive in his debut before going very fast early on last time out. He still hung on for fourth and was beaten less than two lengths, and less speed being present here can only help him; #2 AJNADEEN: Was second in a swiftly-run allowance downstate. He certainly fits here, although I’m not sure he’s as fast as my top selection; #3 HOLLYWOOD STAR: Spent most of his career running against graded stakes horses and drops into the allowance ranks for his first start since March. His one-turn efforts are sharp, and while he may need the race, there’s a chance this is the route he wants.

R4

Chiclet’s Dream
Chestnut Street
Shanghai Dreams

#5 CHICLET’S DREAM: Was a solid second in her first start since November last time out. She should improve second off the layoff, and she’s half of a very strong one-two punch for trainer Chad Brown; #8 CHESTNUT STREET: Just missed last time out at Belmont, and that race’s winner came right back to win earlier this meet. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that there isn’t a lot of early speed for her to chase; #12 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Was fourth in a solid sprint in her career debut. If she draws in off the AE list, she’ll add Lasix, and this barn does well with stretchouts.

R5

Captain Gaughen
Major Force
Sheikh of Sheikhs

#6 CAPTAIN GAUGHEN: Has won two of his last three and figures to be running well late. His win at this distance last time out was sharp, and there’s plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick; #7 MAJOR FORCE: Comes back to the claiming ranks after being beaten two lengths in an allowance at Belmont. He won two in a row before that, and he’s never really run a bad race on turf; #9 SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS: Has won two in a row and goes to the barn of Eddie Kenneally, who’s very good with new acquisitions. He may be better on turf, but this outfit knows how to win turf sprints, and he’s shown plenty of talent in the past.

R6

London House
Internet of Things
Stop Me If You Can

#6 LONDON HOUSE: Fetched $110,000 at auction earlier this year despite a very average pedigree, and he’s been working lights-out at Belmont. The two five-furlong drills jump off the page, and he’ll be tough if he runs to those works; #9 INTERNET OF THINGS: Has a sharp recent work to his credit ahead of his debut for the powerhouse Chad Brown barn. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because she’s bred to go longer than she’ll run here; #4 STOP ME IF YOU CAN: Adds blinkers and has an experience edge over this group. He was second against similar foes last time out and could improve with the equipment change.

R7

Palinodie
Silver Shaker
Osare

#3 PALINODIE: Hasn’t won since 2016, but she’s run very well against graded stakes company and seems to have a major pace advantage on this group. She could be the lone early speed in the race, and as a result could sit a dream trip; #5 SILVER SHAKER: Has run second three times in a row, and was favored on two of those occasions. An unexpected pace meltdown would certainly help her cause, and the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #6 OSARE: Got up in the last stride to graduate at second asking. Arrogate’s younger half-sister has a right to improve with experience, especially for a high-percentage trainer.

R8

Camorra (MTO)
March X Press
Mentality

#3 MARCH X PRESS: Went 2 for 2 here last year and returns to her favorite route. Further helping her cause is what looks like an abundance of early speed, which could set up for her late-running style; #7 MENTALITY: Was a close-up third against state-bred stakes foes last time out. She could appreciate the cutback in distance, and her tactical speed is a plus (especially since she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well); #10 ELOWEASEL: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown an affinity for running well late. This race could set up for that sort of running style, so a minor award is certainly plausible.

R9

Merger of Banks
Giant Boo Boo
Global Impact

#6 MERGER OF BANKS: Is 0 for 14 and will likely be favored, which is usually a horse I go against, but he gets a hugely positive trainer switch from an 0 for 43 conditioner to Rudy Rodriguez. There doesn’t appear to be much other early speed signed on, so this could be a “now or never” spot; #1 GIANT BOO BOO: Has run second in both of his prior dirt starts and makes his first outing for Jeremiah Englehart, who claimed him last time out. The rail draw in such a big field isn’t ideal, but he’s certainly a logical alternative to the likely chalk; #7 GLOBAL IMPACT: Has ramped up the works of late, and the most recent four-furlong drill on the training track says he’s ready to run. This is far from an imposing group, so a first-time starter winning wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/5/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $724.50

Several times in this section over the past few years, I’ve preached the value of some of the forgotten exotics wagers on the menu. Yesterday, one of them gave bettors a real opportunity to make some money. The fourth-race winner was The Caretaker, who came off the main-track-only list and won at odds of 8/5. The fifth-race winner was Uni, the 5/2 co-favorite in the De La Rose. The $2 daily double paid $17.80.

This may not sound like much, but turning two short prices into that sort of return is a way to create value. You won’t retire off of returns like that, but eagle-eyed handicappers that take a more grind-it-out approach to the game appreciate those opportunities.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I was right to play against Cuarenta, who didn’t run a jump in the third race. However, none of the three horses I boxed in exactas cracked the top two, meaning a loss of $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on another forgotten exotic, the Grand Slam. It starts in the seventh, assumes races carded for the turf stay there, and singles best bet #3 TIMELINE in the Alydar Stakes to finish it out. My $2 ticket is as follows: 4,7,8 with 5,6 with 1,3 with 3.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday’s Results: 2 for 9
Meer Results (to date): 37 for 137

Best Bet: Timeline, Race 10
Longshot: Scarf It Down, Race 4

R1

Into Mystic
Sharp entry
Tweedia

#5 INTO MYSTIC: Fetched $650,000 at auction earlier this year and has several sharp works to her credit. She may want a bit longer than this distance, but she could also be precocious enough to win at first asking given her sire, Into Mischief; SHARP ENTRY: I prefer #1 MO WHEELS UP, who’s been working very well of late. Having said that, #1A LADY T N T isn’t without a shot, as she lost all chance early on in her debut; #4 TWEEDIA: Has a very obscure pedigree, but looks the part of a runner in the mornings. We don’t see too many Arkansas-breds at Saratoga, but Brad Cox can win with horses from everywhere, and she may be a bit of a price.

R2

Packed House
Jimmy Jazz
Gambler’s Fallacy

#6 PACKED HOUSE: Didn’t break well last time out and was one-paced going longer. That running style leads me to believe he’ll like two turns, and this seems like a mediocre field for the level; #2 JIMMY JAZZ: Goes two turns for the first time and has been gelded since a fifth-place finish at this level downstate. Jose Lezcano hops aboard, and he has a right to improve at a price; #10 GAMBLER’S FALLACY: May be favored given the powerhouse connections. However, the workouts aren’t anything special, he’ll need to negotiate a trip from the far outside post, and it’s tough to win going two turns right off the bat.

R3

Mighty Zealous
O Shea Can U See
Winston’s Chance

#6 MIGHTY ZEALOUS: Drops down in class after trying stakes foes earlier this meet in a spot that turned up incredibly tough for the level. It helps that he likes a wet track, as there may still be moisture out there following rain earlier in the weekend; #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE: May have figured things out judging by his two straight wire-to-wire wins at Belmont Park. He’ll be prominent early, although he’ll likely have company up front; #1 WINSTON’S CHANCE: Lit up the tote board here last year and returns to the Spa for this event. However, he’s winless in four starts at Finger Lakes, and this seems a bit shorter than his best game.

R4

Scarf It Down
Win With Pride
Top of the Page

#2 SCARF IT DOWN: Hasn’t won in a while, but has been running against tough starter allowance foes and drops in for a tag here. His two starts at this route last season were both sharp, and Luis Saez returning to the saddle can’t be overlooked; #6 WIN WITH PRIDE: Returns to dirt after chasing swifter foes on turf earlier in the meet. He’s won his last two dirt starts against claiming company, and he should be rolling late; #3 TOP OF THE PAGE: Had a rough trip last time out when third against similar going two turns. He cuts back to seven furlongs in his first start for Robertino Diodoro, and he’s won at this distance before.

R5

Disco Partner
Blind Ambition
Holding Gold

#3 DISCO PARTNER: Went further than he wants to go last time out at Belmont and returns to his preferred distance. He won this race two years ago, and he should get a perfect setup given his late-running style and an abundance of early speed in this field; #6 BLIND AMBITION: Also cuts back in distance, and is another that’s had success sprinting on turf at Saratoga. He has tactical speed, but does not need the lead and could get first run on the pace-setters turning for home; #2 HOLDING GOLD: Was a late-running third in the Grade 1 Highlander at Woodbine last time out. He’ll be going the right way in the stretch, but he’s won just one of his last nine starts, so I can’t use him on top.

R6

Dogtag
Tula
Speedy Solution

#7 DOGTAG: Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in this field, and this one’s works impress me more. She’s bred to be a runner, and while debuting going two turns isn’t easy, she’s yet to do anything wrong in her training; #9 TULA: Had an adventurous trip when third in her debut. She was wide early and well back in a race with no early pace, yet still rallied to finish third. She may have gotten a lot out of that race; #3 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Also had a troubled trip in her unveiling, as she was a close-up third in a roughly-run race downstate. John Velazquez hops aboard, and while Wesley Ward isn’t great with stretch-outs, this filly is bred to want as much ground as possible.

R7

What a Catch
Felix in Fabula
American Power

#4 WHAT A CATCH: Drops in for a tag after spending most of his career collecting checks in state-bred stakes races. There’s a chance he’s peaked already, but this is a steep class drop, and I doubt we’ll get the 5-1 morning line given the presence of Pletcher and Velazquez; #7 FELIX IN FABULA: Has yet to run a bad race around one turn and exits a win downstate at this level. He was claimed by Danny Gargan that day, and the recent works indicate he’s ready to run; #8 AMERICAN POWER: Snuck by the $25,000 level last time out, winning by nearly six lengths for aggressive connections. This is a step up in class, but he’s got two wins and a second in three one-turn outings and is a threat if he can repeat his last-out effort.

R8

Bad Student (MTO)
Roman Approval
Decisive Triumph

#5 ROMAN APPROVAL: Drops way down in class after two failed tries against Grade 3 company. He’s got one way of going, and if he gets an easy lead, he could get brave against a lesser group than the ones he’s faced of late; #6 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Exits a listed stakes race at Delaware Park where they flew home in the final quarter-mile. He’s got plenty of experience going this far, but he hasn’t won since late-2016, so it’s tough to endorse him on top with much confidence; #10 MASTER PLAN: Has back form that would trounce these, but his last three races haven’t been pretty, which explains the class drop. Two of those races were on dirt, though, and he could wake up if this stays on the grass. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAD STUDENT, HARDLY A SECRET, HALLOWEEN HORROR.

R9

Clutch Cargo (MTO)
Team Valor entry
Uncle Gio

TEAM VALOR ENTRY: I prefer #1 PILLAR MOUNTAIN, who had every right to need his return race last time out. I think he’ll step forward in his second start off the bench, and this distance could suit him; #3 UNCLE GIO: Adds blinkers after having won two of his last four starts. He was a bit compromised last time by a fairly slow pace, and the blinkers could get him more involved early; #2 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW: Missed by a head at this level last time out downstate. He’s got plenty of experience at this distance, but has settled for minor awards more often than not. DIRT SELECTIONS: CLUTCH CARGO, CONVICT PIKE, HOLIDAY BONUS.

R10

Timeline
Outplay
Patch

#3 TIMELINE: Was second behind Sunny Ridge last time out, but looms large in this spot as the main speed in the race. Additionally, he loves a wet track, which he could get in this spot; #2 OUTPLAY: Won the Curlin Stakes here last year and cuts back in distance after tiring in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He’s got some early speed, but has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #5 PATCH: Will be well-supported at the windows, though for reasons that have nothing to do with his ability. He could come running late, but both of his wins have come in one-turn races, and it’s fair to wonder if that’s the trip he wants.

R11

Naples Legacy (MTO)
Safe With Me
Samara

#10 SAFE WITH ME: Was second behind a next-out winner last time out downstate. The outside post is less than ideal, but she’s won at this route and should be running well late beneath Javier Castellano; #2 SAMARA: Comes back to the appropriate level after a failed try against starter allowance foes. Her races two and three back were solid, and repeats of those races would definitely put her in the mix; #9 JAZZY JUDER: Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, which doubled as her first start in more than 10 months. She could improve second off the bench for sharp connections. DIRT SELECTIONS: NAPLES LEGACY, MISS SIZZLE, PARANOIA.