bankroll

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/23/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $945.50

Two things. First, for anyone who saw Sunday’s Pink Sheet, a clarification: I was 4 for 11 Saturday, and 7 for 21 through the first two days of the meet. Through two racing days, that puts me three winners behind Liam Durbin, who’s gotten off to a tremendous start. Going forward, I’ll put my stats on the top of what I post online at AndrewChampagne.com.

Additionally, those who followed me last year will remember that, every Tuesday, I publish pieces called “The Dark Day Files,” which can range from handicapping discussion to streams of consciousness. This week’s edition goes live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night, and will focus on the Grand Slam, an often-neglected multi-race wager that can sometimes provide considerable value.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Best bet Tied Up ran like anything but, as she faded badly (and abruptly) in the opener. That meant the $22.50 Pick Five ticket I played went up in smoke.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Once again, a reminder that tickets here assume turf races stay there. I’ll keep things simple, as I really like #3 TRIPLE CHELSEA in the featured Caress Stakes (race #7). I’ll bet $15 to win and place on her and hope we get the 3-1 morning line price on a mare that’s going really well right now.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday’s Results: 3 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 10 for 31

Best Bet: Triple Chelsea, Race 7
Longshot: Wingman, Race 5

R1

Shanghai Schwartz
Mantle
Metaphorical

#5 SHANGHAI SCHWARTZ: Makes his first start since December for a new trainer, having been shipped to the Chad Brown barn. He drops in class, and his debut effort sprinting has aged well given that the two finishers in front of him (Soutache and Pony Up) both turned out OK; #1 MANTLE: Disappointed when favored against straight maidens in his debut for high-profile connections. He’ll take money, and perhaps he’ll improve, but the panicky drop of a $400,000 purchase raises a red flag; #3 METAPHORICAL: Was an OK second at this level last time out at Belmont Park. His two works since have been solid, and he’ll likely be a square price.

R2

Gabriella
Shanghai Dreams
Sardonyx

#8 GABRIELLA: Completely missed the break last time out and lost all chance, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. She drops in for a tag for the first time, and if she repeats her two-back effort, she’ll be the one to beat; #7 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Ran a decent fourth in her debut against straight maidens after a wide trip. She drops down and gets Lasix for the first time, so there’s reason to expect a step forward; #6 SARDONYX: Has several OK races at this level, and it’s worth noting that Irad Ortiz, Jr., chooses to ride back.

R3

Seam
Overbook
Stormy Change

#5 SEAM: Broke through last time out in a big way, when she graduated by four lengths downstate. Her form looks much better if you toss the two Aqueduct races, she may be figuring things out, and this is far from the strongest race at this level; #3 OVERBOOK: Cruised home at Finger Lakes in her first start for Jeremiah Englehart and tries winners for the first time here. These are aggressive connections, so the spotting makes sense, and she’s the alternative if you’re not crazy about the morning line chalk; #1 STORMY CHANGE: Routed low-level maiden claimers at Monmouth and seems best of the rest. She showed improved early zip that day, which could come in handy here given the rail draw.

R4

Bourbon Mission (MTO)
The Postmaster
Somelikeithotbrown

#9 THE POSTMASTER: Got caught in the final strides last time out at Belmont, but ran a decent race in defeat and looms large in what seems like a soft group. The slight cutback in distance should help her, as should her experience edge on most of this bunch; #10 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Makes his debut for Mike Maker, whose horses sometimes need the debut effort, but he’s been working well, and the presence of Tapit on the bottom of the pedigree is noteworthy. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he could be a runner and may be a square price; #5 PLEBE: Was third in the race my top pick exits and ran OK there despite it being his racing debut. He’s got some ground to make up on the aforementioned rival, but could step forward in his second start. DIRT SELECTIONS: BOURBON MISSION, WOODBURY, SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN.

R5

Ekhtibaar
Wingman
Transistor (MTO)

#9 EKHTIBAAR: Is slated to try turf for the first time, and his pedigree (by Bernardini, out of a Danzig mare) says he should love it. Additionally, if this race is rained off the turf, his main track races seem best of this bunch; #3 WINGMAN: Comes back to turf and drops down in class after running in races that were quietly pretty strong. The jockey switch to Luis Saez is noteworthy, and he could be flying late at a price; #7 ZORZOR: Hails from the Brad Cox barn, which has been hitting at a very high rate all year long. He’s kept solid company this year and must be respected. DIRT SELECTIONS: EKHTIBAAR, TRANSISTOR, ADMIRAL BLUE.

R6

Danebury
Stretch’s Stone
Becker’s Galaxy

#3 DANEBURY: Gets my tepid top pick in an optional claimer I found perplexing. He’s run well since coming off a brief freshening in March, and his affinity for wet tracks could come in handy; #2 STRETCH’S STONE: Stretches back out to two turns after running well in two sprints following a long layoff. Cross out the 2017 Wood Memorial, and you have a horse that’s never finished off the board; #4 BECKER’S GALAXY: Has changed hands a lot this year and comes back to a two-turn route of ground, which seems like his preferred trip. He’s made $400,000 the hard way and is easy to root for, but his 1 for 17 mark on wet tracks makes it tough to be too bullish in the event of rain.

R7

Triple Chelsea
Kirby’s Penny (MTO)
Tillie’s Lily

#3 TRIPLE CHELSEA: Has reeled off three wins in a row and is four for five this year, all in stakes races. She’s found her niche since being claimed by Joe Sharp, and she also seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed; #10 TILLIE’S LILY: Is perfect over four different courses at three different tracks in three different states, which is a phenomenal achievement. She’s worked well since her most recent score downstate and would also loom large if this was rained off the turf; #2 MORTICIA: Got back on the beam with a win at Penn National. She’s ultra-consistent and hasn’t finished off the board since 2016, but has lost to my top pick twice this year. DIRT SELECTIONS: KIRBY’S PENNY, TILLIE’S LILY, FAYPIEN.

R8

Make the Rules
Harangue
Macha’s Reward

#1 MAKE THE RULES: Hasn’t done much wrong in two starts and stretches out first off the claim for Mike Maker. His running style hints that two turns won’t be a problem, and Javier Castellano’s presence inspires confidence; #3 HARANGUE: May have needed his last race, which came off of a five-month break. His best races have come going two turns, and Ricardo Santana’s gotten off to a great start at the meet; #9 MACHA’S REWARD: May be figuring things out, judging by the last two efforts (a win at Oaklawn and a second at Churchill). He’ll likely show speed from his outside post, though whether or not the form from other circuits will come with him is a valid inquiry to make.

R9

Mama Mary
Quietly Quick
Dreamers and Me

#10 MAMA MARY: Was bet heavily in her debut and ran OK to be third. The runner-up came back to win, and the fourth-place finisher, Shanghai Dreams, runs in the second race. If that one runs well, it flatters this second-time starter; #9 QUIETLY QUICK: Comes back to turf and cuts back in distance for a barn that’s done well with similar stock. Over the past two years, this trainer is 9 for 29 (31%) with similar turf cutbacks at NYRA tracks bet to 10-1 or lower (per DRF Formulator), and her turf races have shown promise; #1 DREAMERS AND ME: Was a solid second in her debut at a price for a barn that isn’t known for success with first-time starters. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but a repeat of her last-out effort could be good enough for a big piece of this.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/22/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $968

You’ll notice a slight change to my analysis, as I’ve officially begun putting numbers next to the names of horses, just for the sake of clarification. This was a suggestion from a Twitter follower of mine, and I’m all for doing things that make my content easier to digest.

Periodic reminder: If you’ve got a suggestion, question, or comment, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. I enjoy hearing from people who read my stuff, and you may even see a response to it in this bankroll blurb!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: In one of a few “backwards exactas” in the pick box, Tee Up nosed Our Girl Abby in the fifth, which ruined our lone remaining double ticket following the scratch of Shape Shifter. We dropped $10.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Given the rain that’s in the forecast, it’s worth a reminder that all plays in this section assume turf races stay there. With that in mind, I’ll dive into the early Pick Five and play the following $0.50 ticket that begins in the opener: 2 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,6 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,8. Singles TIED UP and ADULATION will likely be heavy favorites, but hopefully we can get a price or two home around them to make this pay a bit.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Tied Up, Race 1
Longshot: Stealth, Race 5

R1

Tied Up
Pure Praise
Northernstreetgal

#2 TIED UP: Has been off since an easy score against similar competition at Keeneland. A repeat of that effort would make her incredibly difficult to beat, and it’s tough to see anyone here challenging her early on; #7 PURE PRAISE: Rated well behind a slow pace last time out in her first start for Jeremiah Englehart. Her lone win came over a sloppy track, so she could benefit from any rain that hits the area; #6 NORTHERNSTREETGAL: Drops in class, comes back to the dirt, and has run her best races over wet tracks. She could hit the board at a bit of a price.

R2

Casse entry
Two Dozen Roses
Mott entry

CASSE ENTRY: #1A CHOCOLATE KISSES seems better meant than #1 TOY MOON, but either can win. The former is a half to top-notch turf horse Synchrony, and her dam won stakes races on both turf and dirt; #4 TWO DOZEN ROSES: Has a series of turf works, and her second dam threw Beholder, Into Mischief, and Mendelssohn. The five-furlong drills indicate she may want today’s distance; MOTT ENTRY: #2B GLAZE is bred to love this distance and could improve off of her debut, while main-track-only entrant #2 ROTATE has a chance if this is rained off the turf.

R3

No Need to Appeal (MTO)
La Moneda
Complicit

#1 LA MONEDA: Has turned into a sharp turf horse and won two in a row downstate in impressive fashion. Javier Castellano regains the mount, and anything close to her last-out effort would make her formidable; #2 COMPLICIT: Has improved with every start and followed up her two-back maiden score with a win last month at Belmont. She overcame a very slow pace in the most recent race, and this barn’s certainly formidable with turf routers; #6 DOLCE LILI: Looks much better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Valley View, which was followed by a six-month layoff. She may benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO NEED TO APPEAL, RILEY’S CHOICE, LA MONEDA.

R4

Adulation
Cavallotto
Benefactor

#4 ADULATION: Drops in for a tag for one of the most well-known owners in Saratoga. The last two races weren’t great, but he’s been competitive against much better in the past and Javier Castellano hops aboard; #1 CAVALLOTTO: Prevailed against weaker company last time out at Belmont Park and may be going in the right direction. He’s 2 for 3 in dirt sprints, and he may be a bit of a price; #2 BENEFACTOR: Is another dropping way down in class, and he’s been gelded since trailing a much better group. He’s got plenty of early speed, and a repeat of his effort three back would likely get him a piece of this.

R5

Domain
Point to Remember
Stealth

#5 DOMAIN: Has finished second in a pair of swiftly-run races at Belmont Park and has a pedigree that says two turns should not be a problem. His 85 Beyer Speed Figure from the most recent race is the top last-out number in the field; #8 POINT TO REMEMBER: Is bred up and down for distance and should improve in his third start of the season. He may be a bit more forwardly-placed in this spot; #3 STEALTH: Completely missed the break in his debut and has earned two bullets for workouts since then. Ian Wilkes charges tend to move forward with experience, and this one could present real value in exotics.

R6

Ventry Bay
Fuel the Bern
Bam Bam Blu

#3 VENTRY BAY: Loves Saratoga and exits a strong race for the level where the winner and second-place finisher both won at next asking. Wesley Ward’s on a bit of a cold streak in New York, but this one has back form that more than fits; #8 FUEL THE BERN: Has found his form of late and cuts back in distance for the strong Danny Gargan barn. It helps that he doesn’t need the lead to run well, and he could get first run turning for home; #5 BAM BAM BLU: Romped in the slop at Monmouth last time out and tries turf here. His pedigree says he could like turf, and he certainly merits respect if this race gets moved to the main track. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAM BAM BLU, CHANGE OF VENUE, WIN WITH PRIDE.

R7

Golden Award
Big Birthday
Communal

#5 GOLDEN AWARD: Stepped forward in her second start, when she held on for second despite setting a very fast pace. She’s worked well since then, and she could benefit from the cutback in distance; #9 BIG BIRTHDAY: Ran well in her first start off the bench, finishing third in a sprint at Belmont Park. She could step forward in her second start back, and the outside draw could allow her to work out a trip; #4 COMMUNAL: Was second in a race that features many runners that also show up in this spot. This barn’s horses tend to need a race to get going, so it’s a good sign that she was ready right off the bat.

R8

Critique (MTO)
Dancing Breeze
Stainless

#5 DANCING BREEZE: Ran third behind La Moneda last time out in her first start since November. She was a good second in a $150,000 stakes race before going to the sidelines, and a return to that form would make her tough; #2 STAINLESS: Is Grade 3-placed and could benefit from what seems like a lot of early speed. This barn does well with horses coming off of long layoffs, and she may be going best of all late; #4 QUEEN MUM: Has never finished worse than third in four starts to date. She tries turf for the first time, and her 353 turf Tomlinson number says she could love it. DIRT SELECTIONS: CRITIQUE, STAINLESS, QUEEN MUM.

R9

Monomoy Girl
Midnight Bisou
Gio Game

#4 MONOMOY GIRL: Seems like the lone frontrunner in a small field, which is almost always a tough combination to beat. She seems to be getting better as she goes along, which is a scary thought since she’s a neck away from being 8 for 8; #2 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Aired by six lengths in the Grade 2 Mother Goose, which doubled as her first start for trainer Steve Asmussen. It was good to see her win while close to the pace, but these waters are much deeper; #5 GIO GAME: Was third behind Monomoy Girl in the Grade 1 Acorn, an effort validated when the second-place finisher came right back to win the Indiana Oaks. Her lone misfire came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and she may be on the improve.

R10

Competitionofideas
Compression
East Moon

#9 COMPETITIONOFIDEAS: Just missed last time out in a fast race for the level. The outside post is a bit of an issue on the inner turf, but she’s shown enough talent to indicate she could overcome it; #2 COMPRESSION: Was third in that same race despite not having much running room turning for home. She could easily improve enough to win this race, although she’s found trouble twice in as many starts, which is a concern; #10 EAST MOON: Finished an OK second in her first start going long and tries turf, which her pedigree says she could take to. If this race gets rained off the turf, she figures to be the one to beat. DIRT SELECTIONS: EAST MOON, KIDORO, THAT’S SPEIGHTFUL.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/21/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $978

Earlier this week, news broke that owner Ron Paolucci is leaving the game following a series of run-ins with people and organizations he called “the racing elite.” Paolucci (whose horses run under the moniker Loooch Racing Stables) was second among all North American owners with 159 wins in 2017, so this is not a small-time operation that’s being dissolved.

I’m partial to strong personalities and owners who aren’t afraid to run their horses in big spots (it was the shoe of his horse that wound up in Gun Runner’s tail during last year’s Whitney!). That latter point hits home in an age where field sizes at the top end of the sport seem to be getting smaller with every passing year. I’ve never met Mr. Paolucci, but it seems like he’s done a lot of good for the sport of horse racing, and I sincerely hope he reconsiders his decision.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Monteleone could not have broken worse in the third at Saratoga and lost all chance immediately. We dropped $22.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract some value from my best bet of the day, which is #2 NITROUS in the sixth. I’ll play $10 doubles that start in the fifth (which strikes me as a fun betting race) and use #8 SHAPE SHIFTER and #9 OUR GIRL ABBY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Nitrous, Race 6
Longshot: Whiskey Echo, Race 9

R1

Dubb entry
Helooksthepart
Full Salute

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer FORGE, who ran a clunker last time out but reeled off three wins in a row before that. He drops down in class for aggressive connections, and while J S BACH isn’t poorly meant, the former’s the reason the entry will be a short-priced favorite; HELOOKSTHEPART: Makes his 50th career start in this spot, and has proven himself as a hard-trying veteran that can come running late. There’s plenty of pace in this race, and he may be going best of all in the final furlong; FULL SALUTE: Didn’t break well last time out and was out of his element as a result. He was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez that day and figures to be a pace factor with a clean start.

R2

Digital Footprint
Seanow
One Mission

DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Is bred up and down for grass and put forth a solid local drill on the training track’s turf course. He’s by Giant’s Causeway, out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, and trained by Chad Brown, one of the best first-out turf trainers in the country; SEANOW: Didn’t do much running in his debut, but is bred to want every bit of this two-turn route. Improvement is logical at second asking, and one could do worse than trusting the Pletcher/Velazquez tandem; ONE MISSION: Merits a look at a big price. He broke terribly in his debut, but adds blinkers and distance for Bill Mott, whose horses often get better with experience.

R3

Awesome Slew
Wonderful Light
Behavioral Bias

AWESOME SLEW: Has been chasing some of the top one-turn horses in the country and merits respect in this loaded allowance event. The seven-furlong trip should hit him right between the eyes, and there should be plenty of pace for him to rate behind; WONDERFUL LIGHT: Just missed in a similarly strong allowance at Belmont, where he beat graded stakes winner Stallwalkin’ Dude (among others). He’s never missed the board in seven lifetime starts, and Franco’s piloted him to two of his three wins; BEHAVIORAL BIAS: Has finished in the money in 10 of 11 starts and broke his maiden here last summer. He was beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 3 Commonwealth and adds blinkers for a barn hitting at 29% this year.

R4

Windjammer
Gentle Ruler
Plans to Prosper

WINDJAMMER: Is a pace play in a wide-open turf event where I’d suggest hitting the “ALL” button in multi-race exotics wagers. The slight cutback in distance should help her, and I’m hoping she gets brave on the front end; GENTLE RULER: May have bounced a bit last time out off a big effort two back in what was her first start in almost six months. If she repeats the two-back effort (where she was narrowly beaten by two next-out winners), she could provide some value; PLANS TO PROSPER: Was beaten less than a length at this level last time out and gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez. I’m not sure about the horses she faced that day, but she could improve given the new jockey and a return to a two-turn route of ground.

R5

Shape Shifter
Our Girl Abby
Tee Up

SHAPE SHIFTER: Raced greenly last time out at Laurel Park, but was a runaway winner two and three back in her first two dirt starts. A return to that form would make her tough to beat, especially given the class drop; OUR GIRL ABBY: Responded to the drop in class with a runaway win last time out at Gulfstream Park. She was claimed by Danny Gargan that day, and while she does take a step up, it’s possible she may have finally found the appropriate level; TEE UP: Hasn’t won in a while, but showed improvement in her last two outings, when she was second against similar foes downstate. She should be prominent early, and could hold on for a share at a price.

R6

Nitrous
Coast
Fed Fever

NITROUS: Did everything but win first time out at Churchill Downs, when he was beaten a neck and topped the third-place finisher by more than five lengths. A repeat of that race will make him tough, and we may get an acceptable price given the large field; COAST: Merits a look if he draws in off the AE list. He fetched $500,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked well for Todd Pletcher, but needs a scratch to make his debut in this spot; FED FEVER: Has worked well of late for George Weaver, whose barn is quietly one of the best on the circuit with first-time starters.

R7

Call Provision
Hello Don Julio
Patterson Cross

CALL PROVISION: Always seems to fire a big shot and did not disgrace himself when fourth in a pair of graded events earlier this year. He figures to get a pace to run at, and it helps that he’s won twice over this turf course; HELLO DON JULIO: Seems like the main speed in here, and is another that’s been running against some very strong turf horses. A repeat of his win here last August would make him a major player; PATTERSON CROSS: Looks much more formidable if you toss the Mac Diarmida effort, which was his first outing in more than 11 months. Draw a line through that race, and you have a runner that hasn’t run poorly since late-2016, one that could come flying late.

R8

First Appeal
Really Proud
Battle Joined

FIRST APPEAL: Ran well here three times last summer, notching two wins and a third-place finish in 24 days. Horses that are proven to love this route of ground always get extra consideration, and she’ll be tough if she can channel that form in this turf sprint; REALLY PROUD: Ran well two back in a listed stakes race, but may have moved too early last time out at Belmont. The slight cutback should help her, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; BATTLE JOINED: Put it all together last time out in winning a swiftly-run maiden race. A similar effort would make her competitive here, but she must work out a trip from a far outside post.

R9

Sombeyay
Whiskey Echo
Lexitonian

SOMBEYAY: Has had gate issues, but is less than a length away from being 2-for-2 heading into this year’s Sanford. The rail draw is less than ideal for a horse that’s found trouble this often, but it sure seems like there’s lots of talent here; WHISKEY ECHO: Won like a 1/2 shot should in his debut and gets Lasix for the first time here. His July 9th workout was sharp, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., staying aboard is a plus; LEXITONIAN: Was professional in his debut, which he won by a length after rating just off the pace. He may be the less-fancied of Todd Pletcher’s runners, but he could still win with a logical step forward.

R10

Sistercharlie
A Raving Beauty
Proctor’s Ledge

SISTERCHARLIE: Spotted the leader nearly 30 lengths in the Grade 2 New York, but still nearly managed to get home first. Her effort two back in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley was sensational, and she’ll be tough to beat with that kind of performance; A RAVING BEAUTY: Is 2 for 2 since coming to America and won the Grade 1 Just A Game last time out. This is her first try going two turns since coming across the pond, but nothing says she can’t get that trip; PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Loves Saratoga and merits respect based on the races she ran here a season ago. She won the Grade 2 Lake Placid and Grade 3 Lake George, and she was less than a length behind my second selection last time out.

R11

Hieroglyphics
Monster Bea
Team Colors

HIEROGLYPHICS: Won here twice last summer, including when he took a $100,000 stakes race over some very solid runners. He hasn’t won since and takes a big class drop to run for a $50,000 tag, which could wake him up in a big way; MONSTER BEA: Hasn’t won in a long time, but has chased graded stakes-caliber horses for most of that stretch. He’s another for whom this race represents a drop in class; TEAM COLORS: Beat similar competition last time out at Belmont in his first start for Jimmy Jerkens. A repeat of that effort could win, but navigating a trip from the 11-hole on this turf course is no easy task.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/20/18

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL: $1,000

Before we kick things off, I ask for a small favor: Take some time today to think about the friends and families of Mike Jarboe, Matt Graves, and Manny Ycaza, all of whom we’ve lost since last year’s closing day card. All three men loved Saratoga, and they’d have loved to be here on opening day.

Now, a quick introduction for those who are unfamiliar: In addition to the pick box, I’ll do a daily bankroll section with a few paragraphs of commentary and plays for the day. If you’ve got a question, a comment, or something you’d like to see me address here, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. Finally, if you want to follow me all meet long, content will be posted to AndrewChampagne.com 36 hours or so in advance of each card.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #6 MONTELEONE, who takes a sizable class drop and has run well against much better competition. I’ll put $10 on him to win, and also key him in $2 doubles that start and end there. Those doubles use #1 TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU, #4 DRYNACHAN, and #9 MIKE’S GIRL in the second, and #4 DOMINANT STRATEGY, #6 AZZEDINE, and #9 TERYN IT UP in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Monteleone, Race 3
Longshot: Fightress, Race 8

R1

Bad Student
Nobody Move
Halloween Horror

BAD STUDENT: May not have liked the quirky surface at Parx last time out, when he sat close to a solid pace and faded late. He showed strong two-turn form earlier this year at Oaklawn and should be prominent early; NOBODY MOVE: Showed a new dimension last time out when wiring the field at Belmont Park. A repeat of that effort would make him very competitive in this spot, though such a picture-perfect trip is unlikely; HALLOWEEN HORROR: Merits a look in the exotics at a price. His dirt race here last summer was OK, and he drops way down in class after running against much better company in his last three starts.

R2

Drynachan
Too Foofoo for You
Mike’s Girl

DRYNACHAN: Has a stellar turf pedigree and is working well ahead of her debut for the formidable Chad Brown barn. If she runs to her works, she could be tough in her unveiling; TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU: Was second behind a next-out winner last month downstate. That early speed could make her the one to catch, although the rail draw is less than ideal; MIKE’S GIRL: Is by Scat Daddy and out of a mare that has produced a pair of winners. She’s worked well for a trainer that doesn’t always show off his runners’ talents in the mornings.

R3

Monteleone
Fortythreeoeight N
Sicilia Mike

MONTELEONE: Lost all chance at the break last time out, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. He hit the board in four straight starter allowance events before that and drops down in class significantly for aggressive connections; FORTYTHREEOEIGHT N: Comes back to the dirt second off the claim by Chris Englehart. His dirt races at Tampa this past winter were OK, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip at a nice price; SICILIA MIKE: Has made a heck of a living despite a 1 for 25 career mark to this point, with 10 seconds and five thirds to his credit. With a mark like that, it’s foolish to ignore him in vertical wagers.

R4

Azzedine
Teryn It Up
Dominant Strategy

AZZEDINE: Has run second three times in four tries against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. Javier Castellano climbs aboard for Chad Brown, whose numbers with similar droppers are astounding; TERYN IT UP: Adds blinkers on the drop in class for Brian Lynch and exits a swiftly-run maiden special weight at Belmont Park. It helps that John Velazquez rides back, and he figures to be in the mix early; DOMINANT STRATEGY: Comes to the turf and drops down in class in an attempt to wake up this $520,000 auction purchase. His turf work a few days ago was sharp, and he’s shown some zip in his prior efforts.

R5

Wild Type
Lyrical Lady
Pletcher entry

WILD TYPE: Didn’t break well in her debut last month but has worked lights-out since then. Improvement is logical at second asking for a barn that’s hitting at a 28% clip with second-out maidens; LYRICAL LADY: Fetched $625,000 at auction earlier this year and has some strong gate drills on her tab. Her dam was Grade 3-placed at two, so precocity runs in the family; PLETCHER ENTRY: Blahnik and also-eligible Always Shopping can’t be ignored, but they’re both bred to go much longer than this 5 ½-furlong distance.

R6

Miss Mimosa
Cypriana
Palladian Bridge

MISS MIMOSA: Bounced back last time out with a close-up second at Belmont Park. The last two workouts show she could be coming into this event in peak form for a barn whose horses tend to get better as they go along; CYPRIANA: Ran a good second in a six-furlong event last month. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot, but that clunker two back still presents some questions; PALLADIAN BRIDGE: Likely needed her last race, which was her first outing since February. Before that, she had a productive winter, winning twice and running second in a stakes race, and she could provide some exotics value given her last-out performance.

R7

Hollywood Cat
Cumbria
Dancingwithpaynter

HOLLYWOOD CAT: Merits a big chance for one of the hottest barns in the country if she draws in off the AE list. She was third in a stakes race here last summer, and there should be plenty of pace for her to rate behind; CUMBRIA: Hasn’t done much wrong since being switched to the turf three back. She hasn’t been worse than third since then, and she may get first run at the early leaders when the real running starts; DANCINGWITHPAYNTER: Will likely be a big price, but if you toss the two-back effort (her first start off a layoff), she hasn’t run a bad race in four starts on turf. She’s shown some flexibility, and it wouldn’t surprise me if she got a piece of it.

R8

Fightress
Tapping Pearl
Catherinethegreat

FIGHTRESS: Splashed home to a win in her debut at Churchill Downs, but the real draws here are the two workouts since that win. It certainly appears that she’s moved forward of late, and we’ll almost certainly get a nice price; TAPPING PEARL: Went wire-to-wire in her debut and boasts a strong local workout ahead of this event. She may want to go a bit longer given her pedigree, but unlike others in here, she’s not stretching out at all, which could help; CATHERINETHEGREAT: Romped by more than 10 lengths last time out, but that was at Gulfstream Park, over a sloppy track, and against a suspect field. That last-out Beyer Speed Figure (80) is lofty, but I’m skeptical she can reproduce such an effort, and she may need to in what appears to be a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville.

R9

Daddy Is a Legend
Punked
Altea

DADDY IS A LEGEND: Has been chasing some of the top 3-year-old turf fillies so far this year and is one of many in here that was victimized by a very slow early pace in the Grade 3 Wonder Again. This seems like a softer spot, and she’s shown she can be closer to the pace if need be; PUNKED: Was second in the Wild Applause Stakes downstate and is one of two Chad Brown trainees in the field. The rail draw and relative lack of pace in the race could mean she’s up close early on; ALTEA: Merits respect because of her connections, but is winless in North America and has only won once in eight career starts. The addition of blinkers is noteworthy, but she may need to be up closer to the pace early than she has been of late.

R10

County Court
Prognostication
Lusitano

COUNTY COURT: Takes a big drop in running for a tag for the first time after being victimized by two slow early paces in a row downstate. There’s some speed signed on here, and that plus the class relief makes this one formidable; PROGNOSTICATION: Has never missed the board in five career turf starts, but also hasn’t run since October and drew a dreadful post position. He’s got a few strong recent works, though, and he could be good enough to win if he’s ready; LUSITANO: Is another dropping in class, and he may benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. His two races earlier this year at Tampa were solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is certainly a plus.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: Labor Day (9/4/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Closing Day is upon us, and it’s time for my usual round of shout-outs. Most notably, thanks to the staff at The Saratogian for once again having me in The Pink Sheet. Managing editor Charlie Kraebel, sports editor David Johnson, and the entire sports staff all do fantastic work all meet long, essentially putting out two newspapers’ worth of content, and this year, they did it while moving shop from the old office on Lake Avenue.

I’d also like to thank those who read my work this summer. Whether you saw it on AndrewChampagne.com, bought a copy of The Pink Sheet, or mooched someone else’s paper while at the track, I genuinely appreciate those who took the time to check out what I wrote and which horses I picked. It’s been a lot of fun, and I’m already looking forward to next year!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: With the rain came surface changes and scratches, and we were washed out of all of our action.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Last year, I opted to let it all ride and it paid off, getting me closer to even on the year. This year, I’m doing something very similar. #7 YOUR LOVE looms large in the fourth race, and I think she’s a very likely winner, albeit at a short price. I’ll put all $828 of my bankroll on her, with $414 each to win and place. The question is, what do I do with the remaining 35 cents?

TOTAL WAGERED: $828

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Your Love, Race 4
Longshot: Something Joyful, Race 10

R1

Marzo
Dirty
Enticed

MARZO: Was a million-dollar baby at last year’s Keeneland September sale and has worked to that price for powerhouse connections. The outside post is a plus given his inexperience, and I think John Velazquez can make his own trip; DIRTY: Has worked strongly here for a barn that can win with first-time starters. He fetched $120k at auction earlier this year, and is by promising young sire Maclean’s Music; ENTICED: Is bred to be a very good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of It’s Tricky, who was a very good filly at her peak. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and this barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but he could win on his best day.

R2

Escape Velocity (MTO)
Carbon Data
Son of Oahu

CARBON DATA: Drops down in class for an aggressive barn that clearly wants to win the training title at the meet. He’s been competitive against better horses, and his usual race would make him tough to beat; SON OF OAHU: Hasn’t won in a while, but has run well in each of his last two starts. Both of them came at this level, and he figures to come running late; SUTTER’S MILL: Was claimed out of his last race by Charlton Baker, who’s done very well with new acquisitions. He likely needs to step up, but his debut win at Monmouth was pretty good. DIRT SELECTIONS: ESCAPE VELOCITY, ITSABIGBOY, BUNYAAN.

R3

Driving Me Crazy
No Hiding Place
Drover Crazy

DRIVING ME CRAZY: Has improved considerably in two starts for Jason Servis, one of which was an impressive victory at this route. He showed he didn’t necessarily didn’t need the lead that day, and given the speed signed on here, that’s a plus; NO HIDING PLACE: Takes a big drop in class after flashing speed against much better horses last week. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and this one could appreciate the considerable class relief; DROVER CRAZY: Was claimed last time out at Belmont and takes a steep drop in his first start for new connections. He’s another that could relish the shallower waters, but such a steep drop this quickly also raises some concerns.

R4

Your Love
Ring Knocker
Kelsocait

YOUR LOVE: Found the Grade 1 Test too tough last time out but won two in a row before that downstate. This does not appear to be the strongest race for the level, and her usual race would make her tough; RING KNOCKER: Must be a fun horse to own, having hit the board in 22 of 30 career races. She has not run a bad race in nearly a year, and she figures to be running well late; KELSOCAIT: Sports a solid win over this course, albeit against a weaker group. She has tactical speed and figures to be prominent early.

R5

My Bronx Tail (MTO)
Rushing Fall
Tropical Wave

RUSHING FALL: Fetched $320k at auction last summer and is bred up and down for the turf. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Forestry mare, and some of the recent workouts appear very sharp; TROPICAL WAVE: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but I’m drawing a line through that effort. She’s bred to go much longer, and this barn’s first-time starters don’t hit at a high rate. Improvement is logical, and we may get a big price; CRITIQUE: Was an OK second in her debut, which was rained off the turf. The experience helps, but the recent workouts have been a bit on the slow side. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY BRONX TAIL, LADY BY CHOICE, CRITIQUE.

R6

Engage
Home Run Maker
He’s Bankable

ENGAGE: Ran very well in his debut, finishing a strong second behind a Hopeful contender. They went very fast early on in that event, and any improvement would make this one very formidable; HOME RUN MAKER: Fetched $205k at auction earlier this year and has been one of the fastest-working 2-year-olds on the grounds. He’s bred to be a good one, and he certainly merits consideration; HE’S BANKABLE: Probably wants to go longer, but can’t be ignored. His recent works are very sharp, and given the pedigree (by Arch, out of a Seeking the Gold mare), he could benefit if there’s any moisture left in the track.

R7

Heart to Heart
Delta Prince
Projected

HEART TO HEART: Has one way of going, which is on the lead, and that could help him here. There’s not much other early speed signed on, and this one shouldn’t be hurt by any moisture still left in the turf course; DELTA PRINCE: Has done very little wrong since being switched to the turf. He’s won three out of four starts on the lawn, including an impressive win here earlier in the meet; PROJECTED: Has run second in each of his last three starts, including last month’s Lure. That was a swiftly-run race, and this one’s back class makes him a contender.

R8

Jcs American Dream (MTO)
Tizzelle
Driven by Speed

TIZZELLE: Has two wins and two seconds in four career starts, including one that came earlier in the meet. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one has beaten several of today’s rivals in the past; DRIVEN BY SPEED: Has woken up since going to the turf, winning two races in a row. Both victories came in wire-to-wire fashion, and while there’s other speed here, this may be the horse they have to catch late; BAREEQA: Has won three of her last five starts, including a win going longer here last month. This is a class test for her, but this barn has had a very strong meet and Lezcano’s ridden well on this turf course. DIRT SELECTIONS: JCS AMERICAN DREAM, LEGALLY BAY, IRON MIZZ.

R9

Mojovation
National Flag
Free Drop Billy

MOJOVATION: Was extremely impressive in his debut, winning in wire-to-wire fashion while being geared down late. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but the unveiling suggested there’s a lot of ability here; NATIONAL FLAG: Broke through last time out after a disappointing debut. That day’s runner-up runs in the sixth, and if that one wins there, it bodes well for this one’s chances in this spot; FREE DROP BILLY: Was a late-running second in the Sanford, and he’s bred to improve as the races get longer. The extra furlong should be a welcome change, and he figures to be going the right direction late.

R10

Lulu’s Pom Pom
Something Joyful
Objective Complete

LULU’S POM POM: Was the subject of a controversial disqualification many didn’t agree with last month (spoiler alert: I didn’t, either). She had a rough trip that day, and a repeat effort could be good enough to win; SOMETHING JOYFUL: Is bred to be a strong turf runner and has worked well ahead of her debut. Joel Rosario doesn’t ride for Jeremiah Englehart much, so it’s noteworthy that he’s signed on here; OBJECTIVE COMPLETE: Probably needed the race last time out, since it was her first effort in about seven months. Improvement is logical second off the bench if she draws into the meet’s final race.