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Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/17/17

Posted on August 17, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $789.75

I wish I could use this space to talk about something witty, or amusing, or easy to digest. Having said that, the events of the past few days have made that impossible for me to do. I posted a piece to AndrewChampagne.com Wednesday morning about the events in Charlottesville, Va., and there are some things that are just plain more important than who I like in the fourth race.

If you’re interested, it’s here. If you aren’t, I get that, too. Having said that, my great-uncle, who still resides in upstate New York, fought similar evils in 1944 when wounded at the Battle of Saipan. We shouldn’t be fighting the same battle more than 70 years later.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Mr. Wonderful was dueled into defeat in the fifth, and as such, all of our plays fizzled. We dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll gamble that #5 CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE bounces back after a dud last time out over a very sloppy track at Belmont. My play is a $10 win/place bet on the Todd Pletcher trainee, and I’m hoping we get her 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dreamy Margarita, Race 4
Longshot: Clipthecouponannie, Race 8

Honor Way
Friend of Liberty
Easy Way Out

HONOR WAY: Was an incredibly hard-luck loser earlier in the meet (trust me, I know, I bet her). She was claimed out of that race by an outfit that excels with new acquisitions; FRIEND OF LIBERTY: Was second Sunday and is wheeled back quickly by the new connections. Her best race is certainly good enough to win; EASY WAY OUT: Has not run a bad race to this point in her career. She faces winners for the first time, and these connections must be respected.

Brooklyn Speights
Heat Check
Saratoga Colonel

BROOKLYN SPEIGHTS: Stretches back out to two turns, and he’s run fairly well at such routes in the past. This is a very confusing race, and this one’s past races at similar routes appear best; HEAT CHECK: May have simply detested sprinting at Belmont. He stretches back out here, and note that his two best races came going long; SARATOGA COLONEL: Comes back to the turf and tries two turns for the first time. The pedigree seems to indicate that the distance shouldn’t be a problem, but I hesitate to take a short price on a horse trying something new.

Thebigfundamental
Sail Ahoy
Securitiz

THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL: Was a beaten favorite earlier in the meet over a tiring track that was not kind to his running style. The surface has been a bit more speed-favoring of late, and that should help him; SAIL AHOY: Was a promising 2-year-old back in 2015, and while he hasn’t moved forward a ton from that form, he’s run well in tough spots and should be going the right way late; SECURITIZ: Has plenty of ability, and his best race could win this, but he’s run second a lot, and I don’t like endorsing such horses on top.

Dreamy Margarita
Mojo’s Queen
Veil Dance

DREAMY MARGARITA: Ran a puzzling clunker last time out after breaking her maiden impressively two back. I’m drawing a line through the most recent race, and she should appreciate the drop in class; MOJO’S QUEEN: Woke up when switched to the Ralph Nicks barn earlier this year. She led briefly at this level downstate, and Irad Ortiz returns to ride; VEIL DANCE: Just missed last time out in a race that did not set up for her late-running style. There should be more pace signed on here.

Smokin Platinum
Dark Ops
Sea Foam

SMOKIN PLATINUM: Did everything but win in his debut, when he set the early pace and was reeled in late. Rosario rides back, and a repeat of that effort would make this one tough to beat; DARK OPS: Has worked very well ahead of his debut, and Rudy Rodriguez and Irad Ortiz must be respected. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that he may want to go longer; SEA FOAM: Is bred to be a good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, and he’s another that may be worth watching as races get longer.

Hard Scramble
Beasley
Grumpelstiltskin

HARD SCRAMBLE: Was third behind a well-meant horse last time out at this level. This race seems to set up for a closer, so this colt’s flexibility could be a big, big plus; BEASLEY: Returns off a long layoff after tackling heavy hitters in Florida earlier this season. He merits plenty of respect, but this seems shorter than he wants to go, the rail is a concern, and there won’t be any value here; GRUMPELSTILTSKIN: Is another coming off the bench, and he does so making his first start for Jeremiah Englehart. The recent works are very sharp, and he figures to be a major player if he’s ready to run.

Summer Luck
Taperge
Initiate

SUMMER LUCK: Was third in a Grade 3 two back, and that day’s runner-up won a graded stakes here earlier in the meet. She’s got some tactical speed, which could come in handy given the relative lack of early zip in here; TAPERGE: Was beaten less than a length in a stakes race back in April and has been rested since that effort. She’d benefit from a quick early pace, and these connections are formidable; INITIATE: Just missed last time out when setting the early fractions, and she figures to be the main speed. If she’s left alone, she could be tough to run down.

Clipthecouponannie
Quezon
Court Dancer

CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE: Was a big disappointment last time out at 2/5, but I’m willing to draw a line through that race, which came over a very sloppy track. She was also coming off a career-best effort, and a return to that form would make her morning line odds very appealing; QUEZON: Was second in this race last year and once again is worth a look. She may be at her best on a wet track, but her most recent effort was solid and she should be going well late; COURT DANCER: Hasn’t won in a while but figures to be a main pace player. She was second in a stakes race last time out, and this barn has had a tremendous meet to date.

Tayler’s the Boss (MTO)
Carrera Cat
Centr of the Stage

CARRERA CAT: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but seems to be the one to beat if she does. She was fourth in her debut behind a well-meant Todd Pletcher charge, and improvement is logical at second asking; CENTR OF THE STAGE: Adds blinkers in her second turf start and is eligible to improve with a better trip. She’s had no trip luck in either of her first two starts; SCATBACK: Was bet heavily in her debut, where she ran fourth while racing greenly. She should improve in her second start, but the rail draw is a concern.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/16/17

Posted on August 15, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.75

I got in an interesting discussion online the other day about the current 3-year-old picture and the potential for an unconventional winner of the Champion 3-Year-Old Male Eclipse Award. Long story short, if Always Dreaming wins the Travers, he likely clinches the trophy, while Cloud Computing or Tapwrit would certainly have a significant (but not insurmountable) edge if one of them won the Midsummer Derby.

However, what if a non-winner of a Triple Crown race won the Travers? That opens the door for a horse like Oscar Performance, provided he steps up and beats older horses at the Grade 1 level. Additionally, what happens if a horse like American Anthem or Coal Front wins the Allen Jerkens and follows it up with a win in either the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile? It’s a fascinating scenario, and the next domino falls in a week and a half at Saratoga.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: In short, ugh. Everything Magic lost a photo for second in the opener to a 45-1 shot, and one of the horses we keyed her with in exactas won. It was a painful way to drop $22.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #4 MY MR. WONDERFUL ran a big race in his debut last month, which was rained off the turf. I’ll key him in $4 exactas above and below #2 SICILIA SAL, #6 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN, and #10 TEN EYCK, as well as in $3 doubles that use #4 PADEN and #6 ROCKFORD in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Claiborne entry, Race 7
Longshot: Paden, Race 6

Mutasaawy
Kremlin
Bishop’s Castle

MUTASAAWY: Cruised home last time out when crushing maidens at Parx and seems to have taken to hurdles like a duck to water. This seems like a fairly soft spot to try winners for the first time; KREMLIN: Figures to be the main speed in here. He set the pace earlier this meet against better horses and could be dangerous if he gets loose early on; BISHOP’S CASTLE: Lost the jock last time out at Parx but has run several solid races of late, including a win two back.

Spieth
Powerful Ally
D’ambrosio

SPIETH: Tries two turns for the first time in his second start off the layoff, and the pedigree indicates that this is exactly what he wants. He’s worked well and should be prominent early; POWERFUL ALLY: Was an OK third earlier in the meet in his first start off a freshening. Jose Ortiz riding back is a big plus; D’AMBROSIO: Is another stretching out to two turns with the pedigree to embrace such a route. The rider switch to Castellano is notable, but he finished behind my top pick last time out when that one probably needed the race.

Motion entry
Muqtaser
Fire Away

MOTION ENTRY: Both HOLIDAY STAR and STREET FASHION can win this turf marathon. The former is a multiple graded stakes winner, while the latter exits a stakes race at Delaware Park; MUQTASER: Was brilliantly-ridden last time out by Joe Bravo in a win at this route. Don’t be surprised if Jersey Joe sends him again, especially in such a small field; FIRE AWAY: Loves this distance and may have needed his race earlier this month off a freshening. He was beaten less than two lengths in stakes company that day and merits respect here.

Lady Constance
Jump for Joy
Dubb entry

LADY CONSTANCE: Has not won in a while, but that can be said of many in here, and this filly drops way down in class in this spot. Her lone try at anywhere close to this level was a tough-luck second two back; JUMP FOR JOY: Was a runaway winner last time out at Aqueduct, but that was almost a year and a half ago. Pletcher can get horses ready to run, though, and the fact that she is ineligible to be claimed today could speak volumes about the barn’s intentions; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer EASY WAY OUT, who graduated last time out after burning money twice at Aqueduct. The rider switch is a concern, but her usual effort puts her right there.

My Mr. Wonderful
Ten Eyck
Joe’s Smokin Gun

MY MR. WONDERFUL: Ran well in his debut last month despite the race being rained off the turf. The connections should get the desired route today, and improvement is logical at second asking; TEN EYCK: Doesn’t draw a great post, but is bred up and down to be a very strong turf horse. He’s by Freud and out of a City Zip mare, and he’ll likely be a square price; JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Was a solid second two back on turf before running in the same race my top pick exits. The connections are cold, but a repeat of the two-back effort could easily get him a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY MR. WONDERFUL, STOLEN PISTOL, JOE’S SMOKIN GUN.

Paden
Rockford
Players Group entry

PADEN: Has run well against better horses going longer, one-turn route distances and ships in for a high-percentage barn. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, so don’t be surprised if he’s forwardly-placed; ROCKFORD: Generally runs the same race every time out and was a solid second earlier this month in his first start for David Jacobson. He’s another with tactical speed, and his best puts him right there; PLAYERS GROUP ENTRY: I prefer FULL SALUTE, who comes back to the dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out. He won at this distance two back beneath Jose Ortiz, and that pilot returns here.

Claiborne entry
End Play
Fear

CLAIBORNE ENTRY: COMMEND is clearly the horse to beat here. He exits the Grade 2 Highlander at Woodbine, which was won by world-class turf sprinter Green Mask, and this spot represents significant class relief; END PLAY: Was beaten less than a length in a strong race for the level earlier this meet. He’s run well here in the past and generally runs the same race every time out; FEAR: Has won three of his last four and merits a longshot look. The lone defeat in that stretch was in a dirt race, and turf is clearly what he wants.

Mobridge
Damage Control
No Texting

MOBRIDGE: Beat a number of these rivals last time out and comes back at the level here. If there’s a concern, it’s that all three visible wins in the form were at Belmont, but note that he ran fairly well going two turns at Gulfstream earlier this year; DAMAGE CONTROL: Was beaten a length by my top pick last time out and didn’t have much pace to close into that day. If someone goes with that horse early, it could set up for this one; NO TEXTING: Was fourth in that common race, but was inexplicably rated that day after showing ample early speed in his previous six starts. Given that fact, the rider switch is no shock.

Sly Beauty
March X Press
Fairyland

SLY BEAUTY: Ran into runaway Schuylerville winner Dream It Is in her debut and jogged last time out. This barn is starting to turn strong efforts into wins, and this one could have plenty of talent; MARCH X PRESS: Closed like a freight train to win her debut earlier in the meet at this route. There should certainly be plenty of early speed in front of her; FAIRYLAND: Exits a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, and the blinkers come back on. If there’s a concern here, it’s the rail draw, which has not been kind in turf sprints this meet.

R10

Borsa Vento
Irst
Britain

BORSA VENTO: Drops way down in class, and given the horrible trip, his last race is a throwout. He’s run well at this distance against better in the past, and I’ll give him another shot; IRST: Looked like a promising horse when second here last summer behind an eventual Grade 3 winner, but he hasn’t moved forward since then. The class drop should certainly help, as would a pace battle up front; BRITAIN: Has shown some zip since dropping to the maiden claiming ranks, but was a distant fourth at this level earlier in the meet. Still, he merits respect given the powerful trainer/jockey combination.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/14/17

Posted on August 13, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $841.75

I’ve been fortunate enough to work from a lot of cool places in my professional career, including Saratoga (of course), a renewal of the Winter Olympics, the Little League World Series, and several other world-renowned locales. However, some of the best stories I’ve got have come about while working from, shall we say, unconventional places. I’ll tell some of those stories, including some that feature places and people in upstate New York, in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be online at AndrewChampagne.com Monday night.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: The bane of a win-place player’s existence reared its head, as best bet Dwizard ran pretty well in the fifth but had to settle for third. We dropped $40.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a stand in the opener with a middle-priced horse that I think is well-meant. That’s #4 EVERYTHING MAGIC, whose best effort would make her tough to beat. I’ll put $5 to win and place on her, and key her in $3 exactas above and below the two likely betting choices, #1 CHAMPAGNE RUBY and #6 NON FINISCE MAI.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Literata, Race 8
Longshot: Eucalyptus, Race 9

Everything Magic
Champagne Ruby
Non Finisce Mai

EVERYTHING MAGIC: Reeled off three wins in a row not too long ago and drops down in class. Her record looks much better if you toss out the off-track efforts, and we may get a price; CHAMPAGNE RUBY: Routed foes at this level earlier in the meet and certainly merits respect. A repeat effort probably wins this, but she was aided by a favorable pace setup (and possibly the track condition); NON FINISCE MAI: Drops way down in class in an effort to find her first win since March of last year. She’s run well in each of her last two starts and should be prominent early.

Vigor
Spanker
Hollywood Royal

VIGOR: Is hamstrung by the rail draw but has the experience and early speed to overcome it. She was a solid third behind a well-meant Chad Brown runner when last seen, and the recent bullet workout is a plus; SPANKER: Makes her 3-year-old debut after a 2-year-old campaign that reflected the confidence of the connections. She tried stakes company twice and was second in such a spot at Presque Isle; HOLLYWOOD ROYAL: Fetched $250k at auction and debuts following a series of strong workouts. She’s a half to Grade 2-placed sprinter Laurie’s Rocket, so she’s got a right to show some zip in her unveiling. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAME.

Baby Bear’s Soup
Holding Aces
Happy Farm

BABY BEAR’S SOUP: Comes in off a win downstate and won here last year. When he’s right, he’s very good, and a repeat of his most recent effort would make him the one to beat; HOLDING ACES: Broke through earlier this month when crushing a weaker group. He dueled through fast fractions that day, and while a bounce is possible, it’s also possible that this 5-year-old is figuring things out; HAPPY FARM: Has won two in a row and steps up out of the claiming ranks to run here. I’m not sure what he beat last time out, but he looked good doing it.

Pocket Book
Gidu
Paris Cruise

POCKET BOOK: Did everything but win in her debut, when she set very fast fractions and got nailed in the final strides. She could easily improve at second asking, and if she does, she could lead every step of the way; GIDU: Is the latest son of Frankel to debut here, and the bottom-side pedigree is solid as well. He’s a half to Grade 3 winner Marbre Rose, and his dam is a half to Grade 1 winner Zoftig, so there’s plenty of class in this one’s blood; PARIS CRUISE: Was a solid second in her debut at Keeneland and tries turf for the first time here. She’s worked well of late, and this barn must be respected. DIRT SELECTIONS: PARIS CRUISE, SNAPPER SINCLAIR, BLUE LUTE.

Novique
She’s Stunning
Milaya

NOVIQUE: Is a perfect 2-for-2 at this seven-furlong distance and makes her second start off a long layoff. Her tactical speed is a plus, as is the switch to jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr.; SHE’S STUNNING: Drops way down in class following a strange trip at Parx where she was extremely wide throughout. She was beaten less than two lengths, and she’s certainly eligible to improve with a better trip; MILAYA: Hasn’t won in a while, but spent most of last year running against stakes company and was a good second last time out on turf. Her experience going longer than this tricky distance should help her.

Win With Pride
New Jersey John
Any Questions

WIN WITH PRIDE: Was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail and drops in for a tag for the first time. These connections are aggressive, so I don’t question the drop too much, and the recent turf efforts at Monmouth were solid; NEW JERSEY JOHN: Closed with a rush in his turf debut to finish fourth, beaten less than a length. All three runners in front of him won at next asking, and Linda Rice is extremely strong with horses stretching out in distance; ANY QUESTIONS: Makes his first start for trainer Jeremiah Englehart after a few OK runs downstate. Runhappy’s little brother certainly fits here on his best day. DIRT SELECTIONS: WIN WITH PRIDE, NEW JERSEY JOHN, SURTAP.

Heavenly Score
Battlement
Bigkat and Camille

HEAVENLY SCORE: Was a close-up fourth in a stakes race earlier in the meet behind a pretty sharp sprinter. This is a much softer spot, and she could sit a perfect trip on or near the pace; BATTLEMENT: Has not won in more than a year, but ran a stellar race in defeat last time out at Belmont. The faster they go early, the better this filly figures to finish; BIGKAT AND CAMILLE: Was beaten just a neck at this level and route earlier in the meet and will almost certainly be a price. A repeat effort, though, could get her a minor award and shake up the exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: HEAVENLY SCORE, ANNATHELA, BATTLEMENT.

Literata
Jcs American Dream
Jc’s Shooting Star

LITERATA: Won a confidence-builder last time out at Finger Lakes. She went 0-for-2 here last year, but unlike many in here, she seems to be in her best form and not trending downward; JCS AMERICAN DREAM: Was third in a decent allowance race at Monmouth and generally seems to run the same race every time out. That type of effort is almost certainly good enough for a check; JC’S SHOOTING STAR: May be past her peak, but loves Saratoga. She was third in this race last year and cannot be ignored.

Perro Rojo (MTO)
River of Dreams
Eucalyptus

RIVER OF DREAMS: Simply did not want to go 11 furlongs last time out, so draw a line through that race. His efforts going this kind of distance are solid, and it’s encouraging that Jose Lezcano rides back; EUCALYPTUS: Has not run in more than a year, but ran into some very good horses a year ago. This is a much softer spot, and that kind of form could be good enough to win this; MUSICAL AMERICA: Is another that didn’t want to go three turns last time out. He hasn’t won in a while, but the class drop could wake him up. DIRT SELECTIONS: PERRO ROJO, KARMA DELIGHT, HONOR THY FATHER.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/13/17

Posted on August 12, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $881.75

With the conclusion of Saturday’s card, half of the Saratoga meet is in the books. We’ve seen a lot in the first 20 cards, including plenty of precocious 2-year-olds (such as yesterday’s Adirondack winner, Pure Silver), a tremendous performance from Gun Runner in the Whitney, and the emergence of Good Samaritan as a major player in the 3-year-old division. The best thing about Saratoga, though, is that it only gets better as the days go by.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Azar never threatened in the fifth, and since he was the key horse, our plays fizzled out. We dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on a first-time starter that has every right to be an exceptional horse. That’s #3 DWIZARD in the fifth race. He’s out of a dam that has produced two Grade 1-winning sprinters, and the worktab says this horse may be ready to run at first asking. I’m not sure we’ll get the 7/2 morning line price, but I’ll put $20 to win and place on him in hopes that we do.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dwizard, Race 5
Longshot: Itsinthestars, Race 9

Friend of Liberty
Makealittlelove
Leah’s Dream

FRIEND OF LIBERTY: Drops way down in class for a barn that’s gotten pretty aggressive of late at this meet. She was 3-1 in a stakes race two back, and her best race beats these; MAKEALITTLELOVE: Should get an easier setup here after dueling for the lead in a race that drew a full field earlier in the meet. She’s probably the main early speed; LEAH’S DREAM: Found the starter allowance ranks too tough last time out but cruised home against maiden claimers two back. She should be prominent early.

City Day (MTO)
Miss Mo Mentum
Kingdom’s Queen

MISS MO MENTUM: Was a strong second to a well-meant runner in her turf debut earlier in the meet. This barn has struggled to find the winner’s circle, but the second and third-place finishes tell you their runners are firing; KINGDOM’S QUEEN: Is bred up and down for turf. Her dam was a Grade 3 winner, and said dam has already thrown another graded stakes winner; CRITIQUE: Fetched $155k at auction last year, and these connections must be respected. The question is, does she want turf? DIRT SELECTIONS: CITY DAY, NIGHT OWL, LYNAH RINK.

C Islandsurprise
Maddizaskar
Kelsocait

C ISLANDSURPRISE: Looks much better if you draw a line through the Fair Grounds races four and five back. This barn excels with new acquisitions and can be sneaky up here; MADDIZASKAR: Won a stakes race earlier this year at Aqueduct and has four top-two finishes in six career dirt starts. A return to her winter/spring form would make her formidable; KELSOCAIT: Has not won in a while, but has also been running against much better horses. She was fourth in a Grade 3 three back and could be worth a look in a race I found very difficult to handicap.

Pletcher entry
Maker entry
Halloween Horror

PLETCHER ENTRY: CARIBBEAN looks like the one to beat if this stays on the turf, while DECORATED SOLDIER drops way down in class and has been gelded since his last effort; MAKER ENTRY: I prefer DJULPAN, who has woken up since being stretched out on the turf. He should be prominent early, and there doesn’t seem to be much other early speed signed on; HALLOWEEN HORROR: Was third behind Voodoo Song last out, and that one came right back to win another turf race just a few days later. This barn has done very well this meet, and this gelding may be a bit of a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: DECORATED SOLDIER, CONTROL GROUP, DJULPAN.

Dwizard
My Boy Tate
Quai Voltaire

DWIZARD: Is out of a dam that’s produced Grade 1 winners Paulassilverlining and Dads Caps, which means he has every right to be a top-notch sprinter. The workouts indicate he’s ready to run, and this doesn’t seem like a very tough spot; MY BOY TATE: Hasn’t been seen since April, but has run well in three starts to date. He just missed two back, and of the ones that have run before, he seems the most imposing; QUAI VOLTAIRE: Is 0-for-12, but has hit the board seven times, including three straight runner-up finishes coming into this event.

Swayed
Tiffanys Freud
Victorias Fire

SWAYED: Was part of a four-horse photo finish earlier in the meet. She may have needed that race off a brief freshening, and she’d benefit from a fast pace given her late-running style; TIFFANYS FREUD: Was also involved in that photo and seems to have found her form in her last two starts. She also ran well at this route last year, and she may be a price; VICTORIAS FIRE: Ships in after winning two in a row in wire-to-wire fashion. Turf is an unknown, but she did run well on a synthetic track last time out. DIRT SELECTIONS: VICTORIAS FIRE, ZIPPITY ZOOM, SWAYED.

Thirstforthecup (MTO)
Galileo’s Song
Pas de Soucis

GALILEO’S SONG: Makes her 2017 debut here after a strong 2016 campaign. She just missed in a Grade 3 two back, and if she’s ready to run, this race is hers to lose; PAS DE SOUCIS: Runs in North America for the first time and adds Lasix for powerhouse connections. She won a stakes race in France last year, so there’s no doubt about her talent; SPIGA: Took a step forward last time out and was third behind a real runner two back. Continued improvement would make her a formidable foe. DIRT SELECTIONS: THIRSTFORTHECUP, NOW POWER, NOT TAKEN.

Copper Bullet
Barry Lee
Hollywood Star

COPPER BULLET: Was second in a Grade 3 to one of the top 2-year-old males in the country last time out. He’s got plenty of speed, and the recent bullet workout over the training track inspires confidence; BARRY LEE: Looked the part of a $380k auction purchase in his debut, where he cruised home at Laurel Park. This barn has meant business when shipping up here; HOLLYWOOD STAR: Rated and won at first asking, which isn’t common for 2-year-olds to do. The third-place finisher that day came back to win at next asking.

Noble Freud
Itsinthestars
First Appeal

NOBLE FREUD: Was third to eventual Test winner American Gal in a Grade 3 when last seem. Sire Freud’s progeny usually take to the turf, and if she does, she’ll be extremely tough to beat; ITSINTHESTARS: Had a rough trip earlier in the meet. She was wide throughout and only beaten a neck that day, and she adds blinkers here; FIRST APPEAL: Is 3-for-3 since going to the Linda Rice barn and beat starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. The faster they go early, the more prominent this one should be late. DIRT SELECTIONS: NOBLE FREUD, PALLADIAN BRIDGE, ANDROMEDA’S RISK.

R10

Itsabigboy (MTO)
Brown entry
Wingman

BROWN ENTRY: DATA ROOM is definitely the horse to beat dropping in class. His best races have come going two turns, and that’s the route he gets in the Sunday finale; WINGMAN: Couldn’t stay with a runaway winner at the $75k level last time out, but should find this company more to his liking. The post position isn’t ideal, but he’s talented enough to win on his best day; STRONG SIDE: Wanted no part of a marathon distance last time out. His races going more conventional routes haven’t been bad, and he runs for a tag for the first time. DIRT SELECTIONS: ITSABIGBOY, STRONG SIDE, HOLLAND ROAD.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/12/17

Posted on August 11, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $911.75

Longtime readers of The Saratogian will remember that I was a full-time sportswriter there for about a year and a half. Among the best perks of the job was where the office was. The front steps of that brick building on Lake Avenue were a full pitching wedge or less away from The Parting Glass, Gaffney’s, D’Andrea’s, and a number of other fun places, as well as the police station (which the news department certainly found handy!).

I’m not criticizing the decision to move, as the rationale for it makes sense. With that in mind, though, it was pretty tough to leave that building for the last time in October of 2013 after filing the recap of a Saratoga Springs-Shenendehowa football game. I imagine the friends and colleagues I have that work for The Saratogian felt similarly this week.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We got blanked after neither of our key horses in doubles won (although longshot of the day Jewel Heist ran a huge race in defeat). As such, we dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #4 AZAR, and I’ll key him in $5 exactas above and below #9 MADE IN DETROIT and #10 ITALIAN CHARM. I’ll also single him in $5 doubles that start in the fifth and use #3 CHANNEL CAT and #8 SPORTSWEAR in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Azar, Race 5
Longshot: Promotional, Race 8

Scarly Charly
Will Did It
At Guard

SCARLY CHARLY: Takes a colossal drop in class, but if he’s anywhere close to his best, he’s strictly the one to beat. The recent bullet drill inspires confidence, and he ran well here twice a year ago; WILL DID IT: Makes his first start for Gary Gullo, who excels with new acquisitions. He hasn’t won in a while, but there’s some speed signed on and he’ll be running well late; AT GUARD: Beat weaker foes earlier in the meet and makes his first start for a new barn. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but a repeat performance may be good enough to win.

Airtouch
Base Command
Indimaaj

AIRTOUCH: Fetched $450k at auction last summer, and for good reason. This dam threw Grade 1 winner Sweet Loretta, and this son of Tapit has been working very well ahead of his unveiling; BASE COMMAND: Made up a lot of ground in his debut, rallying from 11 lengths back to be beaten less than a length. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, and the added distance should be a plus; INDIMAAJ: Is by Tapit and out of a Grade 1 winner that’s produced a Grade 1 winner. He’s worked steadily, and while this barn’s runners tend to benefit from experience, it wouldn’t be shocking if he was ready to run right away.

Killybegs Captain (MTO)
Dr. Edgar
Driven by Thunder

DR. EDGAR: Stretches out on turf for the first time, which is unusual given his pedigree. He’s never been better than he is right now, and he merits my top pick in a confusing race with many horses stretching out; DRIVEN BY THUNDER: Ran well in his turf debut last time out. His best race came at a challenging, seven-furlong distance, so he could take to the distance; SIX SHILLINGS: Was a good second earlier in the meet going shorter. It’s unclear if he wants this sort of distance, but class-wise, he fits. DIRT SELECTIONS: KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN, DRIVEN BY THUNDER, PIONEER SPIRIT.

Pure Silver
Limited View
Sly Roxy

PURE SILVER: Has done nothing wrong in two starts, including a stakes win last time out. The rail draw is a concern, but she should have enough speed to overcome it; LIMITED VIEW: Scratched from the Schuylerville due to pre-race antics, but that may have been a blessing in disguise, as the winner freaked. This seems like a softer spot, provided she holds it together; SLY ROXY: Ran away with an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet. It’s unclear how strong that race was, but she’s bred to be a good one and could have untapped potential.

Azar
Old Upstart (MTO)
Italian Charm

AZAR: Spent most of 2016 against top-class competition, so it’s jarring to see him in for a $25k tag. Anything close to his best would make him very difficult to beat; ITALIAN CHARM: Makes his first start since March and has been gelded since his last outing. He reeled off three wins in a row last year and finished just two lengths behind eventual Grade 1 winner American Patriot two back; MADE IN DETROIT: Turned heads with a wire-to-wire romp downstate back in June. He had a dream trip that day, and these are deeper waters, but he seems like the main speed. DIRT SELECTIONS: AZAR, OLD UPSTART, RICH DADDY.

Variant Perception (MTO)
Sportswear
Channel Cat

SPORTSWEAR: Couldn’t possibly be bred any better. He’s by the undefeated Frankel, out of a Group 1 winner, and gets the two-turn turf route his pedigree screams for; CHANNEL CAT: Was a close second in his debut, which came last month at Gulfstream going much shorter. He’s bred up and down for more distance, and he should improve given that he gets it; HAVE AT IT: Is by Kitten’s Joy and out of a multiple Grade 3 winner. He’s worked consistently ahead of his debut. DIRT SELECTIONS: VARIANT PERCEPTION, SUPER SERMON, PETE MARWICK.

Coltandmississippi
Wyatt’s Town
Song of the Nile

COLTANDMISSISSIPPI: Sold for $400k back in 2015 and has a strong series of five-furlong drills ahead of his debut. This is a tough distance to debut at, but the work tab tells the story of a horse who may want this trip; WYATT’S TOWN: Was third in his debut, but didn’t have the best of experiences that day. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose horses often improve with seasoning; SONG OF THE NILE: Fetched $575k last year at auction and has worked like a promising horse. This barn’s first-time starters don’t usually win, but he can’t be ignored in what looks like a loaded race.

Off Limits
Rachel’s Temper (MTO)
Promotional

OFF LIMITS: Burned plenty of money in 2016, but seems to have figured things out in two 2017 starts. She was a good second in a stakes race last time out, and this seems like a much softer spot; PROMOTIONAL: Won here last year and has been facing top-class horses since then. She may want longer, and this may be a prep race, but if she’s right, she’s a contender at a price; ALL IN FUN: Hasn’t won in a while, but is another that’s been running against substantially better horses. She won here last year, and this barn merits respect. DIRT SELECTIONS: PUCA, RACHEL’S TEMPER, ALL IN FUN.

Gift Box
Cerro
Lewys Vaporizer

GIFT BOX: Makes his 2017 debut and looks to pick up where he left off. He was fourth in the Travers behind Arrogate, and while this distance isn’t ideal, his talent may be enough to get him home; CERRO: Has won three of his last four and ran a big race last time out at Churchill Downs. John Velazquez rides, and it’s safe to assume his new owner claimed him with Saratoga in mind; LEWYS VAPORIZER: Is a proven sprinter with top-end early speed. His race here last year was forgettable, but his best effort would make him the one to catch turning for home.

R10

Disco Partner
Time Test
American Patriot

DISCO PARTNER: Has reeled off three wins in a row, including a record-setting performance going six furlongs and a subsequent romp at a mile. He’s never been better than he is right now; TIME TEST: Cuts back in distance after two second-place finishes downstate. He won a Group 2 at this distance overseas, but the question is, is he past his peak?; AMERICAN PATRIOT: Flopped at Royal Ascot but won a Grade 1 at Keeneland two back over a top-class field. He appears ready to run, and his best race would make him a player in this top-class event.

R11

Danny’s Rush
Source Control
Grand Valour

DANNY’S RUSH: Cuts back in distance after being badly beaten going much longer. His best races have come going short on turf, and a repeat of his effort two back (which came against better horses) could win this; SOURCE CONTROL: Rallied to be second at this level last time out at Belmont. The pace was fast that day, but with this large field, such a scenario could easily repeat itself; GRAND VALOUR: Is a bit of an unknown since he’s making his career debut, but this barn can get first-time starters ready, and Javier Castellano signing on is a big plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: DAB, QUAI VOLTAIRE, GREAT BLAKE.