BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $935.75

Remember earlier this week, when I waxed poetic about the virtues of singling heavy favorites in doubles? Take a look at yesterday’s card, specifically the fourth and fifth races. The fourth race was won by an even-money favorite. The fifth race was won by a 4-1 shot in a five-horse field. The $2 double paid $19 and change, a strong payoff given the short field in the second leg and the heavy favorite that won the first leg. The moral of the story: If you’re seeking value, watch double probables like a hawk.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Thursday was a day where, if you bet my runners-up, you made out like a bandit. Not so, however, for us in this section, as Saratoga Heater failed to fire in the seventh. We saved a bit of money thanks to scratches, but we still dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: After that intro, I sort of need to use that strategy here, don’t I? I’ll focus on the opener and single #5 LA INESPERADA (my best bet of the day) in $10 doubles that also use #7 LION IN WAIT and #10 DYNAMIC WAR in the second. Additionally, I’ll play cheaper, $2 doubles that start in the third with #7 JEWEL HEIST (my longshot of the day) and end with #2 PLAY BIG and #5 HARD HITTER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: La Inesperada, Race 1
Longshot: Jewel Heist, Race 3

R1

La Inesperada
Midnight Bounty
Perina’s Pride

LA INESPERADA: Returns to a track she loves and runs at her lowest level yet for a barn that has a high strike rate with new acquisitions. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed here, and she’s a threat to lead every step of the way; MIDNIGHT BOUNTY: Was third at this level earlier in the meet and stretches out to two turns. She successfully navigated such a route earlier this year at Aqueduct; PERINA’S PRIDE: Merits an underneath look at a price. Her best races have come going two turns on dirt.

R2

Lion in Wait
Dynamic War
Summer Falls

LION IN WAIT: Has been second three times in as many turf starts and makes her first start for a barn that’s quietly had an excellent meet to date. The blinkers go on, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; DYNAMIC WAR: Just missed here earlier in the meet and gets Lasix for the first time. That didn’t seem like a particularly strong race for the level, but a repeat performance from a Beyer standpoint puts her right there; SUMMER FALLS: Makes her North American debut and gets Lasix for the first time. Her European form wasn’t anything special, but she may not need to be much to get a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: MADDY’S WAY, DELIGHTFUL LANA, FRONT ROW DEBBIE.

R3

Jewel Heist
Blue Belt
Alaskan Prince

JEWEL HEIST: Tries turf for the first time but has the pedigree to love it. He’s shown significant class on dirt, as evidenced by some of the horses in his running lines (including Derby winner Always Dreaming); BLUE BELT: Has shown substantial early zip and ships in for a high-percentage barn. If his synthetic form transfers to turf, he’s a major player; ALASKAN PRINCE: May be favored and has talent, but has won just twice in 20 career starts. If he’s this short of a price come post time, he may be an underlay. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAME.

R4

Hard Hitter
Play Big
Swift One

HARD HITTER: Just missed at this level and route earlier in the meet. He seems like the main speed in here, and Jose Ortiz riding back is a plus; PLAY BIG: Cuts back in distance after trying a mile against slightly better company last time out. Diodoro is still seeking his first win of the meet as of this writing, but his horses have hit the board in eight of 16 tries this summer; SWIFT ONE: Finished two lengths behind my top pack last time out but was close to a hot pace that day. If they go a bit slower early on, he’s got a chance to improve.

R5

Pocket Book
Cyrielle
Bridaled Temper

POCKET BOOK: Did everything but win in her debut, missing by a neck at Gulfstream after setting very fast fractions. Improvement is logical at second asking; CYRIELLE: Finally draws into the body of a field after some bad luck at the entry box earlier in the meet. She’s bred well, and I’ve been waiting for her to run to see if she lives up to the pedigree; BRIDALED TEMPER: Is bred up and down for turf and has a few strong local works. This barn hasn’t gotten off to a great start, but these connections can win with first-time starters. DIRT SELECTIONS: GIRL’S NIGHT, LATREVO, WILD N READY.

R6

D’funnything
Benevolence
Gaming

D’FUNNYTHING: Helped set a scorching pace last time out going seven furlongs. He cuts back in distance and faces a much shorter field that’s significantly lighter on early zip; BENEVOLENCE: Just missed at this level in each of his last three starts. He’ll probably be favored, but he’s burned significant money lately, and I have a tough time putting horses with “seconditis” on top; GAMING: Was beaten less than a length in his 2017 debut, which came off a long layoff. Improvement is logical second off the bench.

R7

Bartleby
Pence
Uncle Chester

BARTLEBY: May have wanted turf all along and drops in class today. He’s been gelded since his last start, and he may be ready to run off the bench; PENCE: Had an adventurous trip in his debut going shorter. He drops in class, gets Jose Ortiz, and is bred to want as much ground as possible; UNCLE CHESTER: Is 0-for-16, but has shown early speed in his route tries and may inherit the early lead in this spot. It’s tough to endorse him on top given the record, but to his credit, he has faced tougher competition than what he lines up against here. DIRT SELECTIONS: BARTLEBY, WONDERMEISTER, MR. MASSENA.

R8

Stallwalkin’ Dude
Weekend Hideaway
Candip

STALLWALKIN’ DUDE: Has been running against much, much better and should relish the class drop into the ungraded stakes ranks. He loves Saratoga and will be tough to beat if he fires his best shot; WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Has made a million dollars the hard way and is an easy horse to root for. This isn’t an easy spot, but his best effort is competitive; CANDIP: Likely needed his last race, which came off a layoff of more than six months. He was second in a Grade 3 before going to the sidelines, and a return to that form would make him a player here.

R9

Frost Wise (MTO)
Objective Complete
Kinky Sox

OBJECTIVE COMPLETE: Debuted in a loaded maiden race that was won by Morticia, a horse that developed into a multiple stakes winner. She’s been off since then, but the recent bullet workout inspires confidence; KINKY SOX: May have found seven furlongs to be too much distance last time out. Her turf debut going five furlongs was solid, and this route could produce an improved result; SANDY BELLE: Was run down late last time out in what served as a major improvement for her. A repeat effort could win this, but the post isn’t ideal, and a bounce is possible given how big a step forward she took last time out. DIRT SELECTIONS: FROST WISE, HIGH JINGO, TOUGH OLD BIRD.

R10

Maximus Beauty (MTO)
Cashless Society
Stormy Alexis

CASHLESS SOCIETY: Drops in class after a disappointing effort at Monmouth. Her debut was sharp, and she drops down in class for powerhouse connections; STORMY ALEXIS: Doesn’t much like to win, but can’t be thrown out. She’s run well here in the past and should be forwardly-placed in a race that doesn’t offer much other early speed; WAR CANOE: Rallied from way back to be beaten less than a length at this level and route earlier in the meet. She’ll benefit if another horse goes with my second selection. DIRT SELECTIONS: MAXIMUS BEAUTY, CRIMSON FROST, SAY CIN CIN.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $955.75

I understand that there are reasons for it, but it’s still very strange seeing a Thursday card at Saratoga that does not feature a steeplechase race. It’s a departure from decades of tradition at Saratoga, and my first impression was that the card seemed a bit empty without it.

It’s certainly a far cry from the 11-race, “double jump” Thursday cards that were scheduled as recently as 2013, ones that kept many grumpy turf writers in the press box until sunset. If not for Pedro the Press Box Master Chef and his world-renowned hot dogs, the room would have more closely represented a scene from “Mortal Kombat.”

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: We took a shot in the steeplechase race, but picked the wrong longshot to bet across the board. As such, we dropped $15.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a shot in the seventh with a bit of a price. #4 SARATOGA HEATER has three wins and a third in six local starts and won at this level and distance last time out. He could sit a perfect stalking trip, and 6-1 would be a juicy price. I’ll key Saratoga Heater in $5 exactas above and below the Repole and Dubb/Rodriguez entries, and I’ll also put $5 on him to win and place.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Small Fortune, Race 1
Longshot: Saratoga Heater, Race 7

R1

Small Fortune
Scout’s Honor
Francis Freud

SMALL FORTUNE: Showed speed going longer in his first start for this barn last month. This field doesn’t seem as strong as the one he faced that day, and the lack of other apparent early speed here is a plus; SCOUT’S HONOR: Comes back to the turf after two OK efforts in starter allowance company at Parx. He’s run well going short on the sod before, and that sort of effort would be competitive here; FRANCIS FREUD: Hasn’t run in a while, but he’s run against much better horses of late and finished a late-running fourth at this route earlier in the year. DIRT SELECTIONS: SCOUT’S HONOR, UNO EMAYO, SIR BOND.

R2

Battle Ready
Hy Brasil
Kid from New York

BATTLE READY: Is one of two Todd Pletcher class-droppers in this field and has the pedigree to embrace two turns. His lone dirt start to date saw him rush up early after a bad start; HY BRASIL: Has burned money in each of his last three starts, including his first two-turn effort last time out at Monmouth. He should be forwardly-placed early; KID FROM NEW YORK: Has shown speed going shorter of late and drops in for a tag for the first time. The recent works are sharp, but the distance is a question mark.

R3

Blue Atlas
Dooder
Single Mission

BLUE ATLAS: Was a sharp second in her debut going shorter. Her pedigree suggests that two turns will not be an issue, and improvement is logical at second asking; DOODER: Fetched $260k at auction and has been working well for a powerhouse barn. The question is, are they trying turf for the distance (which she’s bred for) or the surface (which she may not be)?; SINGLE MISSION: Is bred to go long on turf and goes out for a barn that can win with debuting runners. Her dam was a Grade 3 winner on turf, and she has a similar female family to Grade 1 turf winner Voodoo Dancer. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOODER, MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK, BLUE ATLAS.

R4

Consumerconfidence
Love Your Buttons
Big Exchange

CONSUMERCONFIDENCE: Was a close-up second at this level downstate when last seen in May. That was his first race since May, and his lone start here last summer is a throw-out due to a bad start; LOVE YOUR BUTTONS: Closed to be fourth in his turf debut and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Javier Castellano signing on is a plus; BIG EXCHANGE: Cuts back in distance and drops down in class for one of the winningest trainers of turf sprinters in the country. The recent works are encouraging and show zip that would come in handy at this route of ground. DIRT SELECTIONS: VALDOCCO, LOVE YOUR BUTTONS, CONSUMERCONFIDENCE.

R5

Jacobson entry
Pawleys Express
Fusaichi Red

JACOBSON ENTRY: I prefer DISCREET SENORITA, who makes her first start for this barn and has proven herself to be a win machine. She’s 9-for-15 lifetime, and while SUMMER HOUSE could also win, her stablemate can rate, which figures to be beneficial in this speed-filled race; PAWLEYS EXPRESS: Has not run a bad race to this point in her career. She should be up close early under a top-class rider; FUSAICHI RED: Has not won in a while, but is one of only a few proven closers in this field. The faster they go early, the more this one figures to like it.

R6

Munchkin Money
Driven by Speed
Miss Freeze

MUNCHKIN MONEY: Came back running off the long layoff, scoring by more than three lengths in what was easily her best-ever race. She won here last year, and the winning rider from her last start is aboard again today; DRIVEN BY SPEED: Woke up in a big way when switched to the turf last time out. The distance is an unknown, but anything close to her last effort would make her a major player; MISS FREEZE: Likely needed her last race, which was her first outing in a year. She debuted by winning a stakes race, so there’s back class here, and she’s bred to like turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: MISS FREEZE, FAIR REGIS, MAJESTIC BLOOM.

R7

Saratoga Heater
Rodriguez entry
Repole entry

SARATOGA HEATER: Won at this level and distance last time out. He loves this track, is in good form, and may be a price given the two entries with prominent connections that are also in the field; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: I prefer MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, who takes a big drop out of stakes company to run here. His best race easily wins this, but those days may be over and there’s a lot of early speed signed on; REPOLE ENTRY: SUDDEN SURPRISE is 2-for-2 here and is another taking a big class drop. The last two races are alarming, but he’s another whose best race puts him right there.

R8

Lover’s Key
Lady Joan
She’s Dreamin

LOVER’S KEY: Has woken up in a big way with the addition of blinkers. She’s won four of five since the equipment change, and unlike others in this field, she has multiple wins going two turns; LADY JOAN: Hasn’t done much wrong and beat many of these last time out. The only question mark with her is the distance, as her lone dud on turf came in her sole two-turn effort; SHE’S DREAMIN: Has improved with every start and stretches out in her first start against winners. Further improvement is necessary, but not out of the question.

R9

Frost Wise (MTO)
Andretta
New Canaan

ANDRETTA: Was second in her debut for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. That was a live race, as the third-place finisher won at next asking; NEW CANAAN: Has strong turf breeding on her dam’s side of the pedigree and has worked well ahead of her unveiling. Of all the first-time starters, this one may be most ready to run well right off the bat; OBJECTIVE COMPLETE: Must be respected if she draws in. She ran up against several next-out winners in her debut, most notably eventual multiple stakes-winner Morticia, and she’s worked well here of late. DIRT SELECTIONS: FROST WISE, HIGH JINGO, LULU’S POM POM.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $985.75

Daily Racing Form compadres Nicole Russo and Joe Nevills are both in Saratoga this week for the Fasig-Tipton sale. If you’ve never met them, they’re very easy to spot. Nicole’s laugh can be heard in an area the size of whichever county she’s in, while Joe is probably wearing the same black hat he’s worn since birth. If you see them at the sale or at the track, please bring both gallon jugs of Big Red Spring water. They both find it delightful, and you will instantly become their best friend. Don’t be shy!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My aim yesterday was to extract some value from Rally Cry, who jogged in the Alydar at odds of 3/5. By hitting the double ending in the fourth race, we did that. Our $35 investment returned $77.50, thus turning the 3/5 favorite into an easier-to-swallow 6/5. I’ll expound a bit more on that handicapping strategy in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be up on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’m treading a bit lightly today, but there’s a big price that I like a bit in the second. That’s #8 QUANIQUE, a 20-1 shot whose record looks much, much better if you only consider her turf sprints. I’ll put $5 across the board on her and hope this is the route she wants.

TOTAL WAGERED: $15

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Javelin, Race 4
Longshot: Quanique, Race 2

R1

Caniform
Hay Listen Up
Le Grand Warrior

CANIFORM: Has closed in every one of his four dirt starts to date and could get an ideal setup here. There appears to be a ton of early speed signed on, and the faster they go early, the better this gelding should like it; HAY LISTEN UP: Was an even fourth going two turns and cuts back in distance. His lone win came going a one-turn route, and this trip may be more up his alley; LE GRAND WARRIOR: Comes back to dirt and drops way down in class. Toss the turf outings, and this one’s body of work looks substantially better.

R2

Matinee Babe
Daddyisdooley
Quanique

MATINEE BABE: Has taken a substantial step forward in her last two starts and missed by just a neck last month. The race could set up for a closer, and Rosario riding back is a plus; DADDYISDOOLEY: Is one of many in here that will likely be sent early on. She seems to be the main speed, and she could lead them a long way; QUANIQUE: Looks much more interesting if you only consider her turf sprint efforts. She just missed at this route last summer and is another that would benefit from the likely race shape. DIRT SELECTIONS: COMMUNION MONEY, DADDYISDOOLEY, SPECIAL RISK.

R3

Private Client
Queen Blossom
Grateful

PRIVATE CLIENT: Is 2-for-2 going a marathon distance and showed a new dimension last time out at Delaware. She led most of the way that day, and that tactical speed could come in handy here; QUEEN BLOSSOM: Was a solid second when last seen downstate. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s run into some good horses in four North American starts; GRATEFUL: Has yet to run a bad race in six career outings. She went wire-to-wire last time out and may be the controlling speed in this event. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAME.

R4

Javelin
Borsa Vento
Likeitlikethat

JAVELIN: Exits a very tough maiden special weight race and drops in for a tag for the first time. A repeat of any of his three efforts to date would make this 4-year-old very tough to beat; BORSA VENTO: Looks better if you toss the route races. Seven furlongs is probably his ideal distance, and Javier Castellano signs on to ride; LIKEITLIKETHAT: Stretches back out to seven furlongs for a trainer who has quietly had a strong meet to this point. The blinkers come off, and Joel Rosario hops aboard.

R5

Dubb entry
Match Up
Swivel

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer STREET HEAT, a winner of two in a row since being claimed by these connections. He’s in top form right now and could sit an ideal stalking trip for a high-percentage barn; MATCH UP: Drops down in class for a barn that’s meant business to this point in the meet. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, but the rail draw could be a plus given the short run into the first turn; SWIVEL: Has won three of his last five, albeit against weaker competition. This race could set up for a closer, and as such, this one could come picking up the pieces late at a bit of a price.

R6

Barely Impazible
Collective Effort
Honor Up

BARELY IMPAZIBLE: Is a half to Grade 3 winner Teeth of the Dog and has run to his lofty purchase price in the mornings. If that form shows up in the afternoon, he’s a logical debut winner for a red-hot barn; COLLECTIVE EFFORT: Is easily the most accomplished of those that have run before. He set a solid pace last time out and could once again find himself on the lead; HONOR UP: Goes out for a trainer whose horses sometimes need a race to get going. However, several of his workouts jump off the page, so this one cannot be ignored in the exotics.

R7

Nonna Mela
Annie Rocks
Tejana

NONNA MELA: Won a Grade 2 here last year but has not been seen in the afternoon since October. Her biggest win may have come over a suspect field, but progression from age two to age three is logical and would make her a major player; ANNIE ROCKS: Brings a six-win record into this contest and would certainly benefit from a wet track. She cuts back to seven furlongs and should be forwardly-placed early on; TEJANA: Likely needed her 2017 debut, which came off a long layoff. She dueled through fast fractions that day, and I’m willing to draw a line through that effort.

R8

Bluegrass Jamboree
Decorator Jenn
Shimmering Moon

BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE: Hasn’t run a bad race in three career starts. This trainer doesn’t saddle a ton of horses, but he’s enjoyed lots of success here the past few years, and this filly strikes me as the one to beat; DECORATOR JENN: Hasn’t missed the board in seven career starts and recently turned in a sparkling local workout. Top rider Jose Ortiz will be in the irons, and this one’s usual effort could be good enough to win; SHIMMERING MOON: Makes her first start for Michelle Nevin and could be the controlling early speed. She was second to a good-looking winner in her last start, and the cutback in distance could help.

R9

Dream Passage
Piquet
Photographer

DREAM PASSAGE: Was beaten less than a length in a turf route when last seen. That was nearly a year ago, but this barn has had great success with runners off the bench, and it’s encouraging that Rosario rides back; PIQUET: Just missed in back-to-back efforts two and three back, but misfired last time out as an 8/5 favorite. Javier Castellano getting off does not help the cause, but a return to her best form would give her a big shot; PHOTOGRAPHER: Hasn’t shown much in her two-start career, but her entire pedigree screams distance, and she finally gets it here. Her dam was a graded stakes-winner going long on the turf, and we may get a bit of a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: DREAM PASSAGE, SMART AND SASSY, HALCYON.