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Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/30/17

Posted on July 28, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908

Three-horse fields in graded stakes races should not happen anywhere, let alone Saratoga, but here we are. Today’s Shuvee has only attracted three older fillies or mares, and with all due respect to the solid trio signed on, that’s just appalling. In an odd twist, today’s Molly Pitcher at Monmouth, which has the same graded status for the same division of horses and half the purse, has no such issues, with eight horses signed on. Is Chris Christie closing bridges again?

All kidding aside, it’s easy to point fingers and blame tracks, or horsemen, or any other group you want to yell at, but the problem goes much deeper than that. I’ll attempt to dissect it in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I had a really good day in the pick box, but Hunter O’Riley gave the bankroll a kick to the gut with his 16-1 upset win in the Bowling Green. It knocked me out of the Pick Five, but losses were limited to $24 after A.P. Indian scratched out of the Vanderbilt.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to wait until the end of the card, as there are mid-priced horses I like in each of the last two races. I’ll put $5 to win and place on both #10 J.S. CHOICE (6-1, Race 9) and #6 NEW YORK’S FINEST (9/2, Race 10). I’ll also play a straight $5 double singling both horses. If one wins, we’ll likely squeak out a profit. If both win, it will be a very good day for this section!

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Generous Kitten, Race 7
Longshot: J.S. Choice, Race 9

Terra Promessa
Paid Up Subscriber
Apologynotaccepted

TERRA PROMESSA: Figures to be the main speed in a Grade 3 that has inexplicably only drawn a three-horse field. The shorter fields are, the better early speed tends to be, and this one’s got plenty of quality; PAID UP SUBSCRIBER: Gave Songbird a challenge last time out in the Ogden Phipps, but this one may be better around one turn. Her lone two-turn victory of note was over a subpar field in the 2016 Fleur de Lis, and she may be outsprinted by her two rivals here early; APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED: Has improved with age and earned her first graded stakes placing last time out, but her lone race here was a complete dud.

Gotachancetodance
Frozen Hannah
Bargaining Table

GOTACHANCETODANCE: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops in for a tag for the first time after chasing better horses for most of her career. Her back class could carry her a long way; FROZEN HANNAH: Has won two of her last three starts and was third in a listed stakes race two back. She was second here twice last summer and hasn’t run a bad race on turf; BARGAINING TABLE: Has won two in a row and will be well-supported at the windows. It’s tough to argue with her recent form, but most of her best races have come going one turn, and this race came up pretty salty for the level. DIRT SELECTIONS: SERVIS ENTRY, ENDURING ERIN, FROZEN HANNAH.

Augie’s Coming
Enduring Honor
Dunk a Din

AUGIE’S COMING: Steps up in class after a runaway win in his first start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. He’ll likely be prominent early, and that could mean a perfect trip in a race I found very difficult to decipher; ENDURING HONOR: Rolled two back at Churchill and just missed last out in Indiana. His flexibility is a plus, and he’ll be a major player if he can bring his Midwestern form to Saratoga; DUNK A DIN: Takes a big drop in class for a barn that must be respected. His back class is substantial, but the two duds over this surface in the past present concerns.

Axtell
Bookman
Heldatgunpoint

AXTELL: Is an ultra-consistent turf sprinter that shouldn’t be hurt by the added sixteenth he gets today. There should be plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick; BOOKMAN: Has yet to run a bad race sprinting and should be prominent early. Joe Sharp is, well, sharp with new acquisitions; HELDATGUNPOINT: Had a nightmare trip here Wednesday and is run right back, which seems like a sign of confidence. He was second in a stakes race two back, and we might get a bit of a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: BOOKMAN, JUNKET, SIX SCHILLINGS.

Scary Not Scared
Memorial Drive
Party Club

SCARY NOT SCARED: Is the latest first-time starter with strong works from this barn, which is prominent in Maryland and has made its presence felt up here. This one fetched $350k at auction, and she’ll be dangerous if she runs to her worktab; MEMORIAL DRIVE: Is another with a strong series of drills ahead of her unveiling. She’s bred to be a good one and traces back to Alabama winner Runup the Colors, her second dam; PARTY CLUB: Closed at first asking earlier this month at Ellis Park. That’s not easy to do, and she boasts a series of zippy works ahead of her second start.

Focus Group
Im the Captain Now
All About Voodoo

FOCUS GROUP: Ran into Oscar Performance in his debut last summer and likely needed his 2017 debut last out. That race has produced several next-out winners, and this one’s pedigree suggests he’ll embrace this marathon route; IM THE CAPTAIN NOW: Is one of only a few in here with experience going this far. He was third behind a next-out winner when last seen downstate, and this barn has racked up a few winners here of late; ALL ABOUT VOODOO: Encountered some traffic trouble when a close-up fourth in his debut. The distance is a lot to ask of a second-time starter, but if he’s anywhere close to as talented as his dam, Voodoo Dancer, he could be tough today. DIRT SELECTIONS: IM THE CAPTAIN NOW, STRONG SIDE, BUSHMILL’S LEGEND.

Generous Kitten
War Bond
Indebted

GENEROUS KITTEN: Takes a massive class drop, and anywhere close to his best should top this field fairly easily. He was 5-1 in a Grade 3 last time out, and unlike many others here, there’s plenty to suggest the distance won’t be a problem; WAR BOND: Is a longshot play underneath. He takes a step up in class, but was very close to a scorching pace last time out and still hung on for a piece of it. He’s in capable hands with jockey Jose Ortiz, and he could spice up the exotics; INDEBTED: Is a consistent sort with 12 in-the-money finishes in 19 career starts, and he takes a slight drop in class in his first start for Joe Sharp. DIRT SELECTIONS: MILLS, FOR GREATER GLORY, MARRIAGE FEVER.

Syndergaard
Cause for Surprise
Saratoga Giro

SYNDERGAARD: Ran his eyeballs out in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne when second behind Practical Joke, and it may be time to wonder if that race left a lasting impact. However, he’s been running against stakes competition since breaking his maiden, so if ever there’s a time for him to wake up, it’s in an allowance like this; CAUSE FOR SURPRISE: Has won two of his last three, and he and the runner-up were well clear of the rest of the field in his last outing. He’d benefit from someone hooking my top pick into an early speed duel; SARATOGA GIRO: Makes his first start since March for prominent Finger Lakes connections. The local rider coming here for the mount is often a good sign with such shippers, and he’s a contender if he’s ready to run.

Dogtown (MTO)
J.S. Choice
Lucullan

J.S. CHOICE: Likely needed the race last time out, and it came up very tough. That race’s winner won a stakes at next asking, and the runner-up has since come back to win as well. 6-1 would be a heck of a price on a horse with considerable talent; LUCULLAN: Took to the turf well last time out, breaking his maiden in swift fashion. Two turns is a question mark, but given the pedigree, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue; KANTUNE: Has won two of his last three in front-running fashion and would benefit from getting an easy lead. If such a scenario materializes, he may be tough to run down. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOGTOWN, PLANET TRAILBLAZER, RACE ME HOME.

R10

Saratoga Charlie (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Tu Exageres

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Crushed maidens at this route two back and may have needed his last start, which came off a long layoff. He drops in class here, and has been gelded since his last outing; TU EXAGERES: Was the beneficiary of a DQ last time out at Gulfstream, but hasn’t run a bad race in three tries. This barn has been a bit cold to start the meet, but this one’s a contender here; PIONEER SPIRIT: Exits a swiftly-run race at Monmouth and won a key maiden race two back. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a major plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: SARATOGA CHARLIE, PIONEER SPIRIT, SPEEDY SLEW.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/29/17

Posted on July 27, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $932

Today’s Jim Dandy is light on quantity, but not on quality. Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and Preakness winner Cloud Computing headline the field in today’s 10th race, and a win by either would likely make the victorious horse your favorite in next month’s Travers Stakes.

Ahead of what’s sure to be many marketing-speak versions of, “All three Triple Crown race winners are pointing to the Travers,” though, is my annual word of caution. It seems like whenever such a matchup is hyped, we get a Travers winner from out of left field. Runaway Groom topped all three major winners in 1982, Will Take Charge topped Orb and Palace Malice in 2013, and most recently, a big gray named Arrogate made Exaggerator and Creator look ordinary last summer. I’m not saying there isn’t cause to be excited, but let’s not go overboard, okay?

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Our two exacta horses ran third and fifth in the fifth race, and we dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll get involved in the late Pick Five, which features three graded stakes races. I’ll be kind to The Pink Sheet’s copy desk and save space by not spelling out most of the names and just using numbers: 7,8,11 with 3,4,8 with 1,7 with 1 (ALWAYS DREAMING in the Jim Dandy) with 2,3,4,6. Hopefully, we can extract some value out of a heavy favorite this way.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Always Dreaming, Race 10
Longshot: Chirping, Race 4

Bourbon Resolution
Mojovation
Lionite

BOURBON RESOLUTION: Finished just a half-length back in his debut, where he was outsprinted early and made a wide move. The third-place finisher from that race has since come back to win, which flatters this one; MOJOVATION: Is one of two in here for Todd Pletcher, but I’m taking a bit of a stand against him. The recent works are solid, but the five-furlong works aren’t as impressive as the four-furlong drills, and there likely won’t be betting value here, either; LIONITE: Fetched $330k at auction last September and earned a bullet for a five-furlong gate drill earlier this month. This barn hasn’t gotten off to a great start at the meet, but this colt seems talented.

Hieroglyphics
Pagliacci
Surprise Twist

HIEROGLYPHICS: Has not run a bad race since being switched to the turf and could sit a dream stalking trip in this spot. A repeat of his most recent effort downstate could win this; PAGLIACCI: Was third in the race my top pick exits and figures to be prominent early in this spot. His lone win came going a two-turn route of ground, and he may appreciate coming back to such a trip; SURPRISE TWIST: Took a step forward to win at second asking and faces winners for the first time. It’s tricky to gauge how Maryland form will translate to Saratoga, but Arnaud Delacour attracts Javier Castellano and we may get a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: PAINTER’S RAGS, PAGLIACCI, JUNKET.

Kirby’s Penny
Kentucky Dancer
Arewehavingfunyet

KIRBY’S PENNY: May have been a dirt horse all along despite breaking her maiden here on turf last summer. She was a strong second last out in the slop, and the third-place finisher came back to win earlier in this meet; KENTUCKY DANCER: Ran a clunker last out in a turf experiment and comes back to dirt. She’s been running against weaker foes, but she also hasn’t run a bad race on fast dirt since March of 2016; AREWEHAVINGFUNYET: Steps up to starter allowance company after a win against claiming competition last out at Belmont. There’s a ton of speed signed on, and while the rail isn’t ideal, she could be picking up the pieces late.

El Dulce
Chirping
Ultima D

EL DULCE: Fetched $200k at auction earlier this year and has worked well for Todd Pletcher. This race is a real head-scratcher, but offspring of Twirling Candy can usually run on turf and his dam was a stakes winner; CHIRPING: Is a longshot on the morning line, but has the pedigree to be a runner. His dam is a half to Grade 1 winners Coil and Chiropractor, and Tom Proctor found the Saratoga winner’s circle with several prices last summer; ULTIMA D: Was a good second when last seen two months ago on the synthetic track at Woodbine. She ran into a next-out stakes winner in her debut and has more of a foundation than any other horse in the field. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAME.

Coal Front
Mo Cash
Excitations

COAL FRONT: Has done nothing wrong in two starts against older, more-experienced competition. He makes his graded stakes debut today, and continued progression would make him very difficult to beat; MO CASH: Has done quite well in Florida and was most recently a close second in the Grade 3 Carry Back. He’s got plenty of early zip and will likely make the lead; EXCITATIONS: Gets the one-turn route he likely wants in this spot. Any speed duel would likely work in his favor, as he should be running well late.

Call Provision
Maker entry
Tathqeef

CALL PROVISION: Probably needed his 2017 debut, which was won by a horse competing in today’s Grade 2 Bowling Green. He’s won at this distance before, and you could argue his best race was his allowance win here last summer; MAKER ENTRY: I prefer ST. LOUIE, who won at this distance last out at Belmont and likely wants as much ground as possible. The far outside post for that one is discouraging, but we may get a price; TATHQEEF: Returned to turf with aplomb in his last-out victory. Among the horses he chased going long in Europe last year was eventual Group 1 winner Hawkbill, so there’s back class here. DIRT SELECTIONS: WAR STROLL, ALTAR BOY, TATHQEEF.

Just Got Out (MTO)
Ack Naughty
Mom’s On Strike

ACK NAUGHTY: Likes to run second, but did so in a stakes race last time out in a race she may have needed. She has four top-two finishes in five starts on this turf course, and she’s a logical favorite; MOM’S ON STRIKE: Turned heads in her turf debut, which came in the Pebbles back in October. She hasn’t raced since, but Joe Sharp can get horses ready off long layoffs, and a repeat of that effort could win this; AWESOME SONG: Has been snake-bitten of late, losing three straight photo finishes. The outside draw isn’t perfect, but she could be the controlling speed under Castellano. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, MOM’S ON STRIKE, CRIMSON FROST.

A.P. Indian
El Deal
Limousine Liberal

A.P. INDIAN: Was the best sprinter on the grounds here a season ago, and he’ll look to defend his Vanderbilt title. He loves this track, and he could sit just off what figures to be a contested early pace; EL DEAL: Has quarter horse-type early speed and comes north after a dominant win in a minor stakes at Monmouth. Jorge Navarro’s barn is one of the hottest in the country, but this is a major class test; LIMOUSINE LIBERAL: Has won three in a row at Churchill Downs, and shippers from there have done quite well to this point in the meet. He may want a hair longer, but he’s another who would be helped by a scorching pace early on.

Bigger Picture
Ascend
Frank Conversation

BIGGER PICTURE: Certainly reaped the benefits of a solid pace when winning the Grade 1 United Nations earlier this month. He has, however, shown flexibility in his running style, and he won at this route last summer; ASCEND: Pulled off a shocker on Belmont Day when winning the Grade 1 Man o’ War over several rivals that also show up here. The added furlong is a question mark, though, and we likely won’t get any value here; FRANK CONVERSATION: Was a good second in a Grade 2 at Santa Anita when last seen in May. He’s got a running style that indicates he wants this trip, and this barn has shipped cross-country to win major races here before.

R10

Always Dreaming
Cloud Computing
Pavel

ALWAYS DREAMING: Dropped anchor in the Preakness, but I think you can draw a line through that race. Pletcher very rarely runs horses back that quickly, and a return to this one’s Derby-winning form would almost certainly mean a win here; CLOUD COMPUTING: Was very sharp in winning the Preakness, but he had lots going his way that day, between the pace and my top pick’s bounce off his Derby win. He may need to be more forwardly-placed today; PAVEL: Debuted with a smashing win at Santa Anita earlier this month. Going from that race to tackling divisional heavyweights is a tall order, but it sure seems like there’s potential here.

R11

Durable Goods
Wake Island
Fashion Week

DURABLE GOODS: Was sharp in her debut, and that effort wins plenty of races at that level. Improvement is logical at second asking, and two turns shouldn’t be a problem; WAKE ISLAND: Could easily complete a Chad Brown exacta in the finale. She hasn’t run since November, but her turf races from last season were solid and her worktab is strong ahead of her 2017 debut; FASHION WEEK: Hasn’t turned many heads in two dirt tries, but there’s a lot of turf in her pedigree. Her dam was a Grade 1-placed mare on the lawn, and Velazquez staying aboard for Shug is a plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: WAKE ISLAND, FASHION WEEK, MAGICAL SKY.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/28/17

Posted on July 27, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $952

Friday’s feature is the Curlin Stakes for 3-year-olds. In its short history, it’s produced a fair number of fine 3-year-olds, including 2014 Travers winner V.E. Day and 2016 Pennsylvania Derby and Cigar Mile hero Connect. Unfortunately, it falls at a rotten time of the season, and in some instances could wind up taking horses away from races like the Haskell and Jim Dandy (which will both be run this weekend).

My idea: Going forward, move the Curlin to Travers Day, where it would serve a role akin to the Easy Goer on Belmont Day. Doing so may attract up-and-coming 3-year-olds and horses that found the waters of the Haskell or Jim Dandy to be too deep. Furthermore, it would add one more stakes race to Saratoga’s biggest day.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We scratched out of the early Pick Four when races were moved off the turf.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I found Friday’s card to be a real puzzle, and I’ll focus on the fifth. I’ll keep it simple, as I think first-time starters #1 LOOKING READY and #4 BIG GEMMY are the ones to fear. I’ll box them in $10 exactas and hope they run to their worktabs.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dovecote, Race 3
Longshot: Atwitzend, Race 10

Mary Pray for Us
Big Mara
Madam Aamoura

MARY PRAY FOR US: Was exceptional against weaker company last time out and was claimed by Michelle Nevin. Jose Ortiz has done stellar work for this barn, and a repeat performance would make this one tough; BIG MARA: Takes a huge drop in class and likely didn’t appreciate the wet tracks she encountered in each of her last two. A race similar to what she was running last fall/winter may be enough to win; MADAM AAMOURA: May be the main speed and is favored on the morning line, but hasn’t won in a year and a half. Her best is competitive, but she may be an underlay at her listed price.

Lightning Buzz
Professor Snape
Noneedtoflatterme

LIGHTNING BUZZ: Took a big step forward second off the layoff last time out. He was second in his debut here last summer, and further improvement could be in the cards; PROFESSOR SNAPE: Was a close-up second over a wet track last time out when sprinting for the first time since his unveiling. Trainer Linda Rice is off to a strong start to the meet; NONEEDTOFLATTERME: Comes back to dirt and takes a big drop in class. His lone win came in his solo dirt sprint to date, and that’s the route he gets here.

Presumptuous (MTO)
Dovecote
Red Dane

DOVECOTE: Rated well off a slow pace last time out, but rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. The distance should not be a problem, and any pace she gets is a plus; RED DANE: Gets Lasix for the first time and has a pedigree that indicates she could love this marathon distance. Her recent turf races are encouraging, and we may get a bit of a price; DOUBLE CAST: Just missed in each of her last two starts, but she had perfect trips on both occasions, and those horses aren’t ones I typically bet back at low odds. DIRT SELECTIONS: PRESUMPTUOUS, DOVECOTE, BRILLIANT MISSY.

Gambler’s Ghost
Will Did It
Diodoro entry

GAMBLER’S GHOST: Takes a huge class drop and figures to be the main speed. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a positive one, and it helps that he’s had three top-two finishes in as many local starts; WILL DID IT: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops down in class and has back form that indicates he could win on his best day. With his late kick, he’d benefit from someone dueling with my top pick; DIODORO ENTRY: I prefer SET THE TRAPPE, who found starter allowance company too tough last time out but won two and three back. This is the level he likely wants, and he could sit a nice stalking trip.

Looking Ready
Big Gemmy
Five Star Bunt

LOOKING READY: Has worked very well both here and downstate. Castellano is enticed to ride, and if the morning zip arrives in the afternoon, he’ll be tough; BIG GEMMY: Earned a bullet in his most recent work at Churchill Downs, which isn’t easy for a 2-year-old to do. Other drills indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and he could be a good one if he runs to that worktab; FIVE STAR BUNT: Showed a bit of early interest in his debut. The rail isn’t an ideal place to break from, but experience helps at this stage of the game, and not many of these have run before.

Flattermefabulous
Marnesia Big Girl
Cinder

FLATTERMEFABULOUS: Is my top pick in what I consider to be the toughest race of the day to handicap. Ultimately, I opted for this one, who has substantial back class and may be closer to the pace today than she has been in her most recent starts; MARNESIA BIG GIRL: Comes back to the turf in her first start since January. Her starts here last summer against similar company weren’t bad; CINDER: Exits a swiftly-run allowance race at Ellis Park and won two back at Churchill. This is another who may be up fairly close considering the relative lack of early speed signed on alongside her. DIRT SELECTIONS: RIMANISEMPREFORTE, MARNESIA BIG GIRL, ANDESINE.

Economic Model
Threefiveindia
Shaft of Light

ECONOMIC MODEL: Hasn’t won in a while, but can be forgiven for that given the company he’s kept. There’s no shame in running behind the likes of Drefong and Mor Spirit, and he was second in last year’s King’s Bishop at this route; THREEFIVEINDIA: Hasn’t stepped forward from three to four, but could still be part of a 1-2 finish for trainer Chad Brown. He should sit just off the prominent early pace and have first run on the tiring early leaders; SHAFT OF LIGHT: Merits respect, as does any runner from the red-hot Jorge Navarro barn, but needs the lead and runs in a spot where several others do, too. His best could win, but he may need to overcome a lot to do that.

Dogtown (MTO)
Rocketry
Shamsaan

ROCKETRY: Has shown ample talent in turf marathons despite a tendency to encounter trouble. Any early pace his rivals show will be welcome, as he’ll likely come flying late; SHAMSAAN: Rallied for third last out despite an early pace that was far from kind to closers. He’ll likely be a price, but note his connections have tried stakes company with him in the past, and he could be starting to figure things out; MEMORIES OF PETER: Hasn’t won in nearly two years, but is one of only a few in here to have shown any early zip. If he gets left alone on the lead, he could be tough to run down. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOGTOWN, SHAMSAAN, HOLIDAY BONUS.

Outplay
You’re to Blame
Small Bear

OUTPLAY: Was up close to a scorching hot pace in the Easy Goer, which was won by Travers probable West Coast. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast in this spot, which is largely devoid of other early speed; YOU’RE TO BLAME: Was second in the Easy Goer and merits a look. He did get a perfect setup in his last outing, but he’s trained well since then and is a contender here; SMALL BEAR: Is 3-for-4 going a mile or longer and 0-for-4 in shorter events. He gets his preferred trip here, and a repeat of his last race likely gets him a piece of it here.

R10

Digitaldestruction
Atwitzend
Colonel Andy

DIGITALDESTRUCTION: Showed speed and faded against better in his debut earlier this month downstate. He needs a scratch to draw in, but logical improvement would make this gelding formidable; ATWITZEND: Showed early interest going longer in his debut for a barn that doesn’t win often with first-time starters. The blinkers come off and speed rider Paco Lopez comes on; COLONEL ANDY: Has collected many minor checks at this level and seems like a candidate for another one. He was second at this level and route last summer. DIRT SELECTIONS: DAB, SICILIA MIKE, MR. CAT.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/27/17

Posted on July 25, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $952

Even if you aren’t a fan of steeplechase racing, Thursday’s opener is worth your attention. It’s the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, and among the runners is a horse named Mr. Hot Stuff. Way back in 2009, he ran in the Kentucky Derby. More recently, in 2013, he won this very race at Saratoga.

Four years after that Grade 1 triumph, and eight years after running on thoroughbred racing’s grandest stage, Mr. Hot Stuff will attempt to win another big race…at the age of 11 years young. Some of his Derby opponents have already had offspring win Grade 1 races and retire (most notably, Pioneerof the Nile’s American Pharoah), and yet here’s Mr. Hot Stuff, still competing at a high level over fences. Phenomenal, isn’t it?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Key horse Finley’sluckycharm was defeated despite a huge Honorable Miss effort, but we still made out OK. We hit the $12.60 exacta five times, and our $25 investment returned a total of $63.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I think Chad Brown’s in line for a big day, and I’ll single two of his entered betting interests in the early Pick Four. I’ll single #10 SILVER SHAKER in the third, punch the “ALL” button in the fourth, include #2 CYRIELLE and #3 PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS in the fifth, and single the entry of #1 RAY’S THE BAR and #1A TRICKED UP in the sixth. Due to the low cost of the ticket, I’ll play it for $1 instead of the normal 50-cent denomination.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 6
Longshot: Celtic Chaos, Race 9

Mr. Hot Stuff
Portrade
Schoodic

MR. HOT STUFF: Will attempt the remarkable feat of winning the same Grade 1 steeplechase race four years after he last captured it. He’s got plenty of back form, and he’s one of the top jump horses in the country when he’s right; PORTRADE: Won last year’s Turf Writers Handicap and was a close-up second two back. There’s a lot of speed signed on, but the cutback in distance could help him here; SCHOODIC: Is a “feast or famine” type, but when he’s right, he’s quite good. He won a Grade 2 two back, and the likely race shape should work in his favor.

Fortunate Queen
Bixby Lou
Miss Pearl

FORTUNATE QUEEN: Is my reluctant top pick in the first of many complicated flat races today. She drops in for a tag in her first start for Rudy Rodriguez, and she ran some OK races out west earlier in her career that would make her tough if replicated here; BIXBY LOU: Has burned money as the favorite in her first three starts, and is another dropping in class. Her effort two back was solid, and she could be tough (especially if she solves the gate issues she’s had); MISS PEARL: Merits a look at a price. She was an OK second last time out at Finger Lakes, and she figures to be prominent early on.

Silver Shaker
Anothertequilashot
Summer Falls

SILVER SHAKER: Drops in for a tag off of a pair of maiden special weight efforts that weren’t bad. The outside post is an obstacle, but continued progression would make her formidable in this spot; ANOTHERTEQUILASHOT: Quizzically tried Grade 3 company two back and drops in for a tag for the first time this afternoon. She’s a one-run closer who would benefit from some speed being shown by others early; SUMMER FALLS: Is a European import getting Lasix for the first time, which is a move that must always be respected. Her runs overseas were nothing to write home about, but she may not need to be much to get a piece of it in her American debut. DIRT SELECTIONS: SILVER SHAKER, MADDY’S WAY, AIFE.

Saratoga Mischief
At Guard
Hard Hitter

SARATOGA MISCHIEF: Draw lines through the inner track races, and you have a horse that’s done little wrong over fast dirt tracks. He was second in a Grade 2 here back in 2015 and could get an ideal trip rating just off the abundant early speed; AT GUARD: Figures to be the main speed, especially in his first effort as a gelding. If he recaptures his 2016 form, he could be tough here; HARD HITTER: Could benefit from the slight cutback in distance, and would move up considerably in the event of a wet track.

Cyrielle
Puttinyouonthenews
Sweet Offer

CYRIELLE: Has a worktab not often seen among debuting runners from this barn. She seems very precocious, which would back up the $300,000 purchase price, and offspring of Animal Kingdom have been very impressive so far this year; PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS: Showed speed in her debut last month at Belmont and should improve at second asking. Irad staying aboard is a major plus; SWEET OFFER: Is a full sibling to Grade 1 winner Sidney’s Candy and Grade 3 winner Sweet Swap. Hennig trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going, but this one certainly fits on pedigree. DIRT SELECTIONS: CYRIELLE, TALK SOFTLY, NO DEAL.

Brown entry
Mighty Mo
Baratti (MTO)

BROWN ENTRY: It wouldn’t be shocking to see RAY’S THE BAR and TRICKED UP run 1-2 in some order here. Both have shown immense ability at times, and this looks like a very tough entry to get past in handicapping; MIGHTY MO: Ran against some heavy hitters last year but misfired when back up north last month. He may have needed the race, and the return to two turns should help him; TUSK: Is a deep closer who would benefit immensely from a speed duel up front. He may need more pace than he’ll get, but the late kick he’s shown means he’s worth a look underneath. DIRT SELECTIONS: BARATTI, DEVINE DENTAL, TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK.

Tom’s d’Etat
Splashtastic
Far From Over

TOM’S D’ETAT: Was extremely impressive in his last-out victory at Churchill. He won at this route by daylight last summer, and stakes races could be in his future with another sharp performance here; SPLASHTASTIC: Recorded a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in two downstate defeats this past spring. Based on those numbers, he’ll be tough, but his last two wins both came in perfect-trip efforts on Aqueduct’s quirky inner track; FAR FROM OVER: Has been equal parts brilliant and perplexing in a strange career that’s seen him sidelined for long periods of time. His best race may win this, but those last two clunkers and the expected low odds are a lot for this handicapper to swallow.

Ava’s Kitten
Blue Bahia
Ancient Secret

AVA’S KITTEN: Likely needed her 2017 debut off such a long layoff. Her one-turn turf races are considerably better than her two-turn efforts, and she won at this route last season; BLUE BAHIA: Has won six of her eight turf starts, including a minor stakes race at Monmouth back in May. She has plenty of speed, but does not need the lead, which could make for an ideal trip; ANCIENT SECRET: Has plateaued of late, having gone winless in her last four after reeling off four straight wins to start her career. Her best race could win, but this is her first time going such a short distance, and she may need more ground.

Celtic Chaos
Weekend Hideaway
Fish Trappe Road

CELTIC CHAOS: There’s a LOT of early speed signed on in today’s co-feature, and that could set things up for this stone closer that’s won two in a row. The faster they go early, the more he’ll like it, and we may get a bit of a price; WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Has won over a million dollars the hard way and is an easy horse to root for. He loves Saratoga, and his usual race likely gets him a big piece of the purse; FISH TRAPPE ROAD: Faces state-bred competition for the first time since 2015. When he’s on his game, this graded stakes winner is very good, and he could appreciate the class relief he gets in this spot.

R10

Fahan Mura
True Love Is Yare
Owesaycanyousee

FAHAN MURA: Drops back into the claiming ranks after an OK third at Parx last time out. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one’s races against claimers have all been solid; TRUE LOVE IS YARE: Sat a perfect trip on the front end to graduate at second asking in her last effort and tries winners for the first time. She’ll likely have company on the front end, but there’s certainly room for her to improve in her third lifetime start; OWESAYCANYOUSEE: Tried tougher company last time out at Monmouth and drops back into the claiming ranks. Top speed rider Paco Lopez rides this frontrunner for Jersey-based trainer Pat McBurney, who has hit at a 20% clip this year as of this writing. DIRT SELECTIONS: WOUNDWITHHEREYES, OWESAYCANYOUSEE, CINCY BELLE.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/26/17

Posted on July 24, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $914

After my start to the meet, which mostly resembled Daffy Duck losing one “wabbit season, duck season” argument after another, it was nice to have a day where it looked like I knew what I was doing. Of six original top picks that actually ran Monday (three scratched), three won, one was second, and one of the off-the-board finishes came in a race where I correctly went against what turned out to be a bad favorite. Hopefully, this means I’m rounding into form.

As always, if you’ve got anything you’d like addressed in this space, send me a tweet at @AndrewChampagne. I’m taking questions and comments all meet long. Just make sure they’re good!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: The second race was rained off the turf, which means my double play was cancelled (remember, wagers in races carded for turf assume no surface switch). Unfortunately, we dropped $15 when the tote board exploded in Monday’s opener and we didn’t have the $232 winner.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I thought this was a very strange card from a betting standpoint, in that I could narrow most races down to a few contenders, but not feel too confident about singles. My plays come in the ninth, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. I’ll play a $10 exacta box using #3 PAULASSILVERLINING and #5 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM, and I’ll punch a straight $5 double singling Finley’sluckycharm and 10th-race selection #6 SHE REMEMBERED.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: She Remembered, Race 10
Longshot: New Canaan, Race 2

Surprising Soul
Moscato
Show Court

SURPRISING SOUL: Has woken up with three straight decisive victories this year. He hinted at talent with a pair of runner-up finishes over fences last year, and he could be emerging as a very nice horse; MOSCATO: Has won two in a row and steps up in class in this spot. He’s yet to run a bad race since coming to America from Europe; SHOW COURT: Prevailed by a nose last out at Parx and won a stakes race by daylight earlier this year.

Sand City (MTO)
New Canaan
Indian Gem

NEW CANAAN: Is a major threat if she draws in off the AE list. Linda Rice made a name for herself in these turf sprints, and the recent bullet workout inspires confidence ahead of this one’s debut; INDIAN GEM: Comes in off a long layoff and a trainer change to George Weaver, whose horses have come out running early in the meet. She’s a top contender if she’s ready to run; SHARP LACEY: Ran third when debuting at this route last summer. Her recent efforts haven’t been great, but maybe she just doesn’t like Belmont and needs a change of scenery. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAND CITY, INDIAN GEM, SONG FOR THE SOUL.

Bunyaan
Combat Controller
Hay Listen Up

BUNYAAN: Takes a massive class drop after faltering against much better in each of his past two starts. Anything close to his runaway win three back (which came in his last two-turn outing) would likely be good enough; COMBAT CONTROLLER: Is another taking a big class drop for a live barn. The win two back against lesser company was strong, and he ran against some big-name horses earlier this season; HAY LISTEN UP: Woke up two back with a wire-to-wire score and runs for D. Wayne Lukas, who has already won several races to this point in the meet.

Fayeq
Emancipation
Hammerin Aamer

FAYEQ: May not be as good as older half-sister Rachel Alexandra, but his last-out maiden win was very sharp. He ran against some very good horses earlier this year at Gulfstream, and indications are that he’s figuring things out; EMANCIPATION: Channeled older full brother Orb with his late-running debut win and ran well last out in his first start against winners. Two turns should be no problem, but will he get any sort of a pace to close into?; HAMMERIN AAMER: Has taken a substantial step forward as a 3-year-old and was a good second last out downstate. He could be forwardly-placed early, which may be beneficial given the likely race shape.

A Dixie Twister
Asian’s Way (MTO)
Jazzy Juder

A DIXIE TWISTER: Drops in for a tag and loves sprinting on turf. She’s never run a bad race going this type of route, and she could sit a dream trip just off the speed; JAZZY JUDER: Woke up two back when switched to the turf and didn’t run badly in her first start against winners downstate. The slight cutback in distance could help, and she may be good enough to overcome the disadvantageous post; RUBY DUSK: Ships in from Arlington Park for a trainer that doesn’t run much at Saratoga, but means business when he does. Of 11 Catalano-trained starters here in the past two years, nine have hit the board (per DRF Formulator). DIRT SELECTIONS: A DIXIE TWISTER, ASIAN’S WAY, SISELLA.

Gargan entry
Super Stone
Asiliveandbreathe

GARGAN ENTRY: Either horse could win, but I prefer TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR, who fetched $225k at auction last summer. The past two works were very sharp, and offspring of Into Mischief can be precocious; SUPER STONE: Showed speed and faded in her career debut at Belmont. She was the betting favorite that day, and trainer A.C. Avila could have her ready to go at second asking; ASILIVEANDBREATHE: Possesses a sharp work two drills ago downstate and could benefit from the outside draw she gets here.

Vintage Matters
Voodoo Song
Clutch Cargo

VINTAGE MATTERS: Is the only one of these with a marathon turf race under his belt. That particular race (four back) came up incredibly tough, he’s run well since then, and this gelding should be doing his best running late; VOODOO SONG: Was hammered late in the wagering Saturday and is run back quickly after cruising home well clear on that occasion. He’s 2-for-2 on turf, and Linda Rice has had success with quick turnarounds in the past; CLUTCH CARGO: Possesses the running style needed for races of this distance, could hang around for a piece of it, and is a win candidate if this is rained off the turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: CLUTCH CARGO, MAN OF WIREGRASS, VINTAGE MATTERS.

Elenzee
Animal Posse
Gaming (MTO)

ELENZEE: Would benefit from the likely shape of this race given the closing kick he showed when second last time out. The Casse barn has started slow this meet, but this spot could set up for this horse; ANIMAL POSSE: May have bounced last time out after a good third two back in his 2017 debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., signs on to ride, and he could be the speed of the speed; GEHRIG: Has not won in nearly two years, but, like my top pick, he stands to benefit from a pace meltdown and should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: GAMING, WICKED MACHO, GEHRIG.

Finley’sluckycharm
Paulassilverlining
By the Moon

FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM: Is a perfect 5-for-5 at this six-furlong distance and has lost just once in nine one-turn efforts. She figures to be the controlling speed here, and if she brings her Churchill form with her, look out; PAULASSILVERLINING: Is 2-for-2 this year, with both wins coming at the Grade 1 level. She’s obviously got tons of talent and will probably be favored, but is it possible she wants longer than the six furlongs she gets today?; BY THE MOON: Is an easy horse to root for and comes in after two Grade 3 wins downstate. Her chances would improve over a wet track.

R10

She Remembered
Pure Gemmz
Scarlett Jo Hansen

SHE REMEMBERED: Has really improved since moving to turf as a 3-year-old. Her best effort came last out going a similar route of ground at Belmont, and a similar effort would make her tough to beat; PURE GEMMZ: Has run respectable races at this level going shorter and stretches out in this spot. The blinkers come off, and she could be forwardly-placed; SCARLETT JO HANSEN: Could be dangerous if she draws in off the AE list. She was a solid third at this level last out, and Michelle Nevin usually has them ready to run second off the layoff.