BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,078

Many times, it’s fun writing these blurbs. This isn’t one of those times.

I met Gino Muehleck on Twitter a few years ago, and had the pleasure of spending some time with him and a few friends at Saratoga last year. We had our differences on certain things, but he was a kind man who was exceptionally enthusiastic about horse racing, which, at its best, is the best gambling game on the planet. He passed away this past weekend in Florida, and it hit me pretty hard. Judging by the reactions of others on social media, I’m not alone.

Rest easy, buddy. To those of us who are still here: Remember that, despite whatever personal differences we have, 99% of us all want the same thing, which is for the game to thrive. That often gets lost, and it shouldn’t.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Yougottahavehope led into the stretch of the finale but ran out of gas. I dropped $42.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I don’t have any super strong leans today, but I’m going to take a few swings in the early Pick Four (as a reminder, that starts in the third race because of the steeplechase). My $1 ticket reads as follows: 1,4,6 with 2,3 with 3 with 2,6,8. Additionally, I’ll have a $12 win bet on #3 PROBLEMATICA in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Problematica, Race 5
Longshot: Vesting, Race 6

R1

Awakened
Proven Innocent
Jimmy P

#7 AWAKENED (2-1): Came off the bench running when third against Grade 1 company at this route last month. That was his first start in nearly a year, and he represents half of a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Jack Fisher in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick; #5 PROVEN INNOCENT (5/2): Came from way back to get the money in that Grade 1 race and will look for a second straight score at this level. He does pick up six pounds off of that win, though, and it’s telling a higher-percentage rider opts to pilot Awakened, not this one; #3 JIMMY P (7/2): Freaked in last year’s Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard, which he won by 34 lengths. He hasn’t found that form in four subsequent starts, but he’s also never finished worse than third in three local outings.

R2

Zadorsky
Weigh the Risks
Braganza

#5 ZADORSKY (3-1): Notched two impressive wins in Kentucky this spring and returns to Saratoga, where she’s got a win and two seconds in three local tries. She’s a consistent, stakes-placed filly who loves this seven-furlong distance, and this barn means business when it ships; #1 WEIGH THE RISKS (7/5): Showed plenty of form over the winter and is a logical favorite for powerhouse connections, but I have a few doubts. We haven’t seen her since February, I’m not sure she beat a ton at Aqueduct, and the rail draw may be a bit tricky since she isn’t a natural front-runner. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her; #4 BRAGANZA (8-1): Hasn’t run since November but has been working consistently and does her best running going seven furlongs. She’s a one-run closer who wants some pace, and there seems to be some signed on here.

R3

Empty Tomb
Good Skate
Manta Rey

#4 EMPTY TOMB (3-1): Has won two in a row since being claimed by this barn and won at this level and route a season ago. He’s a 9-year-old that’s won $553,000 the hard way, and he’s shown he’s tough to pass if he’s on or near the lead; #1 GOOD SKATE (5/2): Takes a massive drop for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to make that kind of move. Perhaps that wakes him up, and it’s not like he’s an awful favorite, but the 0-for-5 local mark is certainly a red flag; #6 MANTA REY (4-1): Is another dropping in class, and that last-out race wasn’t an easy one for the level. That day’s winner came back to repeat, and this one may move forward given the likely race shape and the presence of several speed horses.

R4

Gardiner
Trust Issues
Zippy Mark

#2 GARDINER (5/2): Goes out for a barn that’s gotten off to a scorching start to the meet. He ships in from Churchill after a solid second at this level, and regular rider Jose Ortiz will likely have him in an ideal spot just off the pace; #3 TRUST ISSUES (3-1): Ran fourth in the race my top pick exits, and he had a less-than-ideal trip. He probably wasn’t winning, but trouble may have cost him third. Irad Ortiz Jr. may give him a cleaner trip here; #5 ZIPPY MARK (9/2): Tried two turns last time out, and that proved to be a bit too far. He gets a more desired trip here (albeit against open company rather than Arkansas-breds), and if there’s any moisture in the track, he’d definitely move up.

R5

Problematica
Talkin in Cursive
Gone and Forgotten

#3 PROBLEMATICA (9/2): Didn’t run well at all last time, when she faded to last just two weeks ago. However, I’m willing to give her one more shot. There doesn’t seem to be much other speed signed on, and if she and Jose Ortiz get comfortable, I think they could steal it on the front end; #2 TALKIN IN CURSIVE (8/5): Certainly ran very well last time out, when she ran for three times her prior claiming price and won as much the best at 16-1. The potential for a bounce is absolutely there, though, and if this one’s so well-meant, why does this barn also saddle…; #4 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (2-1): …who goes first off the claim and gets Flavien Prat? Either could win on their best day, but this is a curious uncoupled entry, and given the short prices involved, it’s worth asking some questions.

R6

Film Star (MTO)
Vesting
Mutaawid

#6 VESTING (6-1): Has never run a truly bad race going a marathon distance on turf, and he broke through last time with a wire-to-wire score downstate. He set legitimate fractions that day, too, which makes the win even more impressive, and if he gets an easy lead, he may be tough to run down; #8 MUTAAWID (9/2): Capitalized on a solid pace last time and won a race several others in here exit. He’s the second half of a solid 1-2 punch for Mike Maker, who tends to do quite well in these long-distance turf events; #5 CRYSTAL QUEST (9/5): Has back class and attracts Flavien Prat, but the Harvey Pack principle is in play here. He’s never gone this route of ground before, and I simply can’t back him as the favorite given that legitimate question mark.

R7

Daisy Duke
Looks First
Despo’s Dream

#4 DAISY DUKE (2-1): Cuts back in distance a bit after a solid second in a swiftly-run race at this level at Churchill. That day’s winner was much the best, and this seems like a softer spot with plenty of early speed to set up for her late kick; #2 LOOKS FIRST (10-1): Came flying late to be second at a big price earlier in the meet. She’s another late-running type that may benefit from the presence of several opponents that want to be on or near the lead; #7 DESPO’S DREAM (9/2): Was fifth in the race my second choice exits and probably just had way too much to do that day. She was nine lengths back at the second point of call and raced wide throughout, and while she can pass others late, that almost certainly wasn’t her desired trip.

R8

Dutrow entry
Princess Madison
Midtown Lights

DUTROW ENTRY (1-1): I prefer #2 THE BIG CALHOUNA, who won two and three back and was third behind the classy Dolomite, who’s gotten very good of late. This seems like a much softer bunch, and her usual effort would absolutely make her the one to beat; #3 PRINCESS MADISON (6-1): May have needed her last-out clunker, which was her first try since September. This barn doesn’t run many horses, but Phil Bauer is an astute horseman who knows how to get runners back on track, and she ran a very good race here last summer; #7 MIDTOWN LIGHTS (5-1): Hasn’t run since January, but has shown enough to merit some respect here in her first start for Saffie Joseph. Perhaps she needs a race, but if she’s ready to go, she could absolutely get a piece of it.

R9

Rout
Askingforafriend
The Commish

#5 ROUT (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and may not have to be much to graduate on debut in the nightcap. He hammered for $280,000 at auction in 2023 and is bred to be a good turf runner. His female family includes the dam of Grade 1 winner Storm Trooper, and his dam, True History, was a seven-time winner; #6 ASKINGFORAFRIEND (7/2): Didn’t have a great trip last time out, when he returned from a six-month layoff and tried turf for the first time. Improvement is certainly logical second off the bench, especially with Irad seeing fit to ride back when he probably had some options; #4 THE COMMISH (6-1): Came back running last month, when he led briefly downstate before fading to third in his first try since July. This is a class jump on paper, but he’s still in the state-bred ranks, so that’s a bit deceptive.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,120

“Quarantine” is never a word racing people like to hear, and unfortunately, it reared its head Saturday morning at Saratoga. A suspected case of strangles meant restrictive measures were put into place at Barn 28 at the Spa. As a result, La Cara was scratched from the Coaching Club American Oaks, and she’ll look to affirm her standing at the top of this year’s 3-year-old filly division another day.

NYRA’s excellent TV broadcast had a primer on strangles, which is basically the equine version of strep throat in humans. The NYRA press release issued Saturday morning further states that, with proper treatment, strangles isn’t life-threatening and horses fully recover. It’s lousy timing, to be sure, but hopefully things blow over sooner rather than later.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I’ve got no complaints with the effort from Oat Coutour, who did take a step forward in his first two-turn outing. However, he could only manage a runner-up finish in the second behind the odds-on favorite I went against, who got a perfect trip. I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got a very strong opinion in the finale. I think #5 YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE towers over this group, and I’m betting accordingly. In addition to a $30 win bet, she’ll finish a 50-cent late Pick Four ticket which starts in the seventh and looks like this: 1,5 with 1,2,3,4,7,9 with 2,4 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $42.

SARATOGA ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS FOR JULY 20TH, 2025

Best Bet: Yougotahavehope, Race 10
Longshot: Tidal Forces, Race 7

R1

Makes Sense
Rice entry
Preposition

#6 MAKES SENSE (8/5): Hits me as the more imposing of two Todd Pletcher trainees in the Sunday opener. He didn’t run badly when second behind a pretty nice horse last time out, and he looks imposing on the drop into the maiden claiming ranks; RICE ENTRY (6-1): Both runners hit me as contenders. #1 FREEDOM MAKER comes back into maiden claimers and has been competitive at this level, while #1A THE TACO LADY stretches back out to two turns and could be the main speed against the boys if she’s ready to go; #7 PREPOSITION (10-1): Tries two turns for the first time and is bred to love it. This son of Tapit is out of a Candy Ride mare, and while he’s been a bit disappointing so far, he’s got a right to wake up given the class drop and the added distance his pedigree says he wants.

R2

Regalton
My Divine Spirit
Tater Tot

#5 REGALTON (4-1): Ran well in his debut back in May, when she made up plenty of ground to be second behind a winner who repeated at next asking. George Weaver trainees tend to improve with experience, and this one may have plenty of talent; #1 MY DIVINE SPIRIT (5/2): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a mountain of turf pedigree, as most of his European-bred runners do. She’ll take plenty of money in her unveiling, but the rail draw isn’t an ideal one for some first-time starters, and I don’t think this is a bad field; #6 TATER TOT (8-1): Was third in her debut back in April, but comes in off of a sparkling turf work that hints grass is what she wants. She’s got a right to move forward with a start under her belt and may provide value at a bit of a price.

R3

Warrior Richard (MTO)
Brown entry
Slapintheface

BROWN ENTRY (6/5): #1 DEBT LIMIT isn’t without a chance, but I prefer #1A MOVE TO GOLD, who showed plenty of talent before going to the sidelines last summer. This will be his first start with Lasix, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, he’s strictly the one to beat; #6 SLAPINTHEFACE (5-1): Showed a new dimension racing on the lead last time and might be in front by default early on. He also had every right to need that race off a long layoff, so between that and the likely race shape, he’s got every right to move forward; #7 BE OF COURAGE (9/2): Was third when trying a marathon distance last time out and returns to a more conventional trip here. This barn has been ice-cold this season, but he’s run well in all three 2025 outings, and his usual race could easily get him a piece of it.

R4

Confabulation
Scheduling Dude
Eliminate

#5 CONFABULATION (3-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where my strongest opinion is against a heavy favorite, rather than for a particular horse. He’s been off since January, but his one-turn races have been sharp, and the two-turn experiment last time out hits me as a throwout; #7 SCHEDULING DUDE (6-1): Tried turf last time out, and while he’s bred to love it, he showed he doesn’t. He’s back to dirt here, and he hits me as the most likely early leader. If he gets comfortable, he could lead them a long way; #6 ELIMINATE (7/5): May make me look silly, but I simply don’t like him much in here, especially given his likely price. He’s 0-for-4 at Saratoga, and while his last-out clunker came over a quirky surface on Belmont weekend, that’s far from the only head-scratcher on his sheet. I think this is a short-priced favorite you’re supposed to try to beat.

R5

Save Time
Cassiar
Catherine Wheel

#4 SAVE TIME (6-1): Tried top-notch competition last time out, but got thumped by Thorpedo Anna at Churchill Downs and returns to the right level here. Her two-back win in May was solid, and that day’s runner-up came right back to win next time out; #6 CASSIAR (6-1): Is 2-for-2 with Lasix and gets access to it again after a failed try in Grade 3 company last time out. She’s a 3-year-old going against her elders, which isn’t an easy thing to do, but this seems like the right level and Shug McGaughey certainly knows how to spot his horses; #5 CATHERINE WHEEL (8/5): Will likely be a pretty heavy chalk, but while I’m not against her as much as I am Eliminate, I have my doubts. Given her sheet, I think she may be better going one turn, and it’s not like she blows this field away on speed figures. Perhaps she wins, but at her likely price, I’ll take a stand against.

R6

Hey Toby (MTO)
Mizertonic
Outtawaterbury

#2 MIZERTONIC (8/5): Has run well twice since coming off the sidelines and was most recently second downstate at this level. He was probably left with too much to do that day, and the jockey switch to Flavien Prat is certainly a notable one; #4 OUTTAWATERBURY (8-1): Has to move forward on speed figures, but he’s shown some tactical speed, which isn’t a very common trait in this field. Given the presence of Luis Saez, I think there’s a chance he makes the lead, and that’s a good place to be on this turf course; #5 COACH CASE (2-1): Was an emotional winner for Miguel Clement here last month, but I’ve got some reservations in this spot. It’s his first try against winners, I don’t think he beat much last time out, and he’s a 3-year-old going against older company. Of the two chalks, I think this is the more vulnerable one.

R7

Castle Island (MTO)
Tidal Forces
Belouni

#5 TIDAL FORCES (5-1): My analysis could boil down to four words: “Lone speed, inner turf.” This one stretches back out to his preferred two-turn route, gets Irad Ortiz Jr., and may be alone on the front end given his tactical speed. If he is, I think he’ll be tough to catch; #1 BELOUNI (5/2): Merits respect on the significant class drop for Chad Brown and isn’t a bad favorite. His clunker here last year is excusable given the long layoff that came after it, and a repeat of his two-back performance at Tampa would give him a big chance here; #7 JOHNY’S FIREBALL (3-1): Exits some fast races at Churchill Downs and is another taking a drop in class to run for a tag. Churchill turf form doesn’t always travel, and he’s struggled elsewhere, but many of those races have come against higher-profile competition.

R8

Theprincessfactor
Golden Irish
Geez Eloise

#4 THEPRINCESSFACTOR (4-1): Took a big step forward last time out, when she wired a field to graduate at second asking. Her most recent work here was very sharp, and I think she could still be improving given her relative inexperience; #1 GOLDEN IRISH (5-1): Was eased out of her last start at Keeneland but is back on the tab for Tom Amoss and has enough speed to make the rail draw an asset. Her prior early fractions are among the fastest in this field, so the game plan shouldn’t be a secret; #2 GEEZ ELOISE (9/2): Needs to improve on speed figures, but she seems like the lone closer in a race otherwise full of early zip. Sprints don’t always fall apart, but it wouldn’t shock me if this one does, and for that reason, I have to use this Linda Rice trainee.

R9

Scylla
R Disaster
Jody’s Pride

#4 SCYLLA (2-1): Chased Ways and Means last time out when that one freaked here last month. She cuts back to six furlongs here, which I don’t think will be an issue, and the Grade 2 Honorable Miss seems like a bit of class relief given the heavy hitters she’s been running against recently; #2 R DISASTER (9/2): Hasn’t been worse than second in nine starts to date. One of those efforts was a second in the Grade 3 Vagrancy, where she edged Leslie’s Rose (the recent winner of the Shuvee); #9 JODY’S PRIDE (4-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits, which came after a win in the Grade 2 Ruffian going a mile downstate. I’m not sure this is her best distance, but she did win an off-the-turf stakes going six furlongs as a 2-year-old.

R10

Yougottahavehope
Nina Kay (MTO)
Rodriguez entry

#5 YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE (2-1): Probably needed her 2025 debut in the Soaring Softly, given that she hadn’t run since November. She gets Lasix for the first time here, and a return to her 2-year-old form makes her strictly the one to beat in the Sunday nightcap; #1 QUICK POWER NAP (9/2): Returns to state-bred competition after two tries against open company to start her 6-year-old season. She hasn’t won in quite a while, but that class drop is a significant one and she’s run very well here in the past; #6 PHOEBEINWONDERLAND (6-1): Is a tricky read given the layoff and the surface switch, but Wesley Ward knowsn how to get horses prepped and offspring of More Than Ready love the turf. The addition of Lasix is a big equipment change, and she’s got a few works that hint she could be sitting on a solid effort in her 3-year-old debut.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,150

It may not be what anyone wants to read, but I think Saturday’s Saratoga program might be pretty chalky. This brings to mind an age-old argument: Do public handicappers have a responsibility to constantly search for prices?

I tend to middle that discussion, which ticks off quite a few people. I see the logic behind folks saying it doesn’t always take skill to land on short-priced horses. However, if I think favorites are legitimate and my content doesn’t reflect that, it hits me as dishonest, and that’s a bridge too far for me.

That’s where this section comes in. If the pick box in The Pink Sheet is “handicapping 101,” my bankroll blurbs are “handicapping 201,” and here’s hoping we can use it to find some value.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I’m Very Busy had every chance in the seventh but didn’t kick on, knocking out a bunch of tickets (mine included). Scratches reduced my losses to $25.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second race, where I really like #5 OAT COUTOUR given a pedigree that hints he’ll love going two turns on the grass. I’ll have a $30 win bet on him, and I hope we get the 8-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS FOR JULY 19TH, 2025

Best Bet: Immersive, Race 10
Longshot: Oat Coutour, Race 2

R1

Belloro
Victory Hall
Atenea

#4 BELLORO (5/2): Sports a flashy two-back gate drill ahead of her unveiling for a barn that knows how to get precocious 2-year-olds ready to run. Her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner X Y Jet, and she possesses plenty of win-early pedigree; #6 VICTORY HALL (4-1): Shipped to Saratoga after a few strong works at Monmouth for another outfit that does strong work with debuting runners. A daughter of young sire Independence Hall, her bottom-side pedigree is strong (though some of it hints she may want to go longer); #8 ATENEA (3-1): Sold for $50,000 at auction, a solid number considering her sire’s modest $6,000 stud fee. She’s worked steadily for Jose D’Angelo, attracts Jose Ortiz, and can’t be ignored from the outside draw.

R2

Oat Coutour
English Castle
Trinity River

#5 OAT COUTOUR (8-1): Goes two turns on turf for the first time and is bred to love it. His dam, Res Ipsa, did her best work in those spots, and his turf debut going short wasn’t bad. Add in a recent strong gate drill and the potential to improve, and this price hits me as a significant overlay; #8 ENGLISH CASTLE (5/2): Looks like the main speed, which is never a bad thing on the inner turf. There are legitimate stamina issues here, but he does take a slight drop in class and he ran well here twice last summer against similar stock; #2 TRINITY RIVER (2-1): Drops in for a tag for the first time in his first outing since January. His 2024 turf efforts weren’t bad, to be sure, and he’s a contender if he runs to them, but the layoff of more than six months is certainly a concern.

R3

Consider It Done (MTO)
Bosun
Not for Hire

#5 BOSUN (5/2): Gets a significant jockey switch back to Jose Ortiz, who piloted him to a runaway win at Fair Grounds earlier this year. He was probably left with too much to do under other riders in his last two outings, and this event seems to have plenty of pace signed on; #3 NOT FOR HIRE (7/2): Got the ultimate equipment change recently and will make his first start as a gelding here. He returned to form last time when second behind a talented runner who repeated at next asking, and this barn is off to a strong start at this stand; #4 ON THE LEDGE (9/2): Won his first turf start last time out and has taken two of three outings since coming back from a long break. This isn’t an easy race for the level, but he seems to be in top form and may have found a future on the grass.

R4

Claire’s Run
Strong State
Paula’s a Star

#7 CLAIRE’S RUN (8-1): Never looked like a loser as a heavy favorite last time out, when she crushed an overmatched restricted field by seven lengths. She was bet in her debut, too, but simply may not have liked the turf. This is a tougher spot, but I think there’s a chance she’s got a lot of ability; #6 STRONG STATE (9/2): Capitalized on a friendly pace scenario last time out, when she rallied from seventh in her first try since June. She spent last season running against some very tough horses, including champion Immersive, and she was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Spinaway behind that one; #3 PAULA’S A STAR (7/2): Drops back into allowance company after outrunning her 24-1 odds when fourth in the Jersey Girl last month. She’s got some early speed and gets Lasix again after not being able to run with it agains tougher horses in her most recent outing.

R5

Film Star (MTO)
Barber entry
Activist Investing

BARBER ENTRY (4/5): Both #1 CLEAR CONSCIENCE and #1A RHETORICAL can win here. The former is 2-for-3 at Saratofa and got his nose down to win last month’s Kingston at this route, while the latter returned from a long break to crush allowance company downstate; #8 ACTIVIST INVESTING (4-1): Has run just once since September of 2023, when his connections tried that year’s Grade 3 Virginia Derby (a race that’s aged spectacularly). He was second back in February at Gulfstream, and while he’s clearly had his issues, he’ll be a major player if he’s ready to run; #5 DAUNT (12-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but he’s been running against some very good turf horses going a bit longer. The eight-month layoff is a concern, but he’s run well fresh before and could offer some value underneath.

R6

Curlin’s Angel
Alimara
Wrigleyville

#2 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5/2): Was one of the most visually-impressive winners of last month’s Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. She rated well off a modest pace and inhaled the field to win going away. This is a tougher spot, but improvement is logical at second asking, which is scary to consider; #6 ALIMARA (3-1): Hasn’t run a bad one since coming to the U.S. in early-2024 and most recently ran second in a similar spot downstate. Like my top pick, she’s a closer, and the last race didn’t exactly set up for her preferred running style; #4 WRIGLEYVILLE (8-1): Seems best of the rest in what hits me as a two-horse race. She hasn’t won since June of last year, but she’s run well on turf courses in three states since then and was a decent third last month in her first try for this barn.

R7

Growth Equity
Our Magical Moon
Stradale

#8 GROWTH EQUITY (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in a fascinating 2-year-old maiden race with eight first-time starters. This son of Nyquist is out of a stakes horse, sold for $425,000 last year, and has been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of his unveiling; #9 OUR MAGICAL MOON (10-1): Merits a look at a price. He’s a half to Grade 3 winner Dixie Serenade who’s turned in some flashy drills for Mark Casse, including a two-back bullet out of the gate on July 1st; #3 STRADALE (3-1): Hammered for $1.3 million after an impressive showing at this year’s OBS Sale. Based on that alone, he’ll take plenty of money and may be favored. However, his bottom-side pedigree is all-turf (his dam is a full to Grade 1 winner Stormy Lucy), and while Steve Asmussen’s first-out numbers are OK, they’re not exceptional. He wouldn’t stun me, but I’ll try to beat him.

R8

Warrior Richard (MTO)
Padiddle
Bettrluckythangood

#9 PADIDDLE (7/2): Drops into allowance company after a few solid performances against stakes foes. He was third in three straight graded stakes, and he’ll be able to run with Lasix again thanks to the return to this level; #6 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (6-1): Didn’t have a great trip when fourth in the Kingston and tries this trip for the first time. He’s a consistent closer who generally runs the same race every time, and he’ll be going the right way if he gets a pace to run at; #7 MAYOR OF MIDNIGHT (5-1): Tries winners for the first time after graduating on the stretchout downstate last month. His pedigree says this type of trip is what he wants, and the connections merit respect, but the rider switch off of out-of-town Flavien Prat is a concern, and I’m just not sure what he beat last time.

R9

Halina’s Forte (MTO)
Future Is Now
Pipsy

#7 FUTURE IS NOW (5/2): Got a bit unlucky last time when second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental here last month, but she’s an ultra-consistent mare who always seems to show up. She’s never misfired here, and running at even weights with the last-out winner here may make the difference in the Grade 3 Caress; #6 PIPSY (7/2): Became the Intercontinental Champion (come on, I had to) last time out in wire-to-wire fashion while getting six pounds from my top pick here. It’s probably the best race she’s run to date, and when this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #2 ZEITLOS (8-1): Is another rock-solid mare who always seems to show up. She tried turf in last year’s Caress, where she was a fast-closing fifth, and this year’s event also seems pretty heavy on early speed.

R10

Immersive
La Cara
Take Charge Milady

#1 IMMERSIVE (8/5): Had a very strange trip in her return to the races off a long break. She was second as a 2/5 favorite in the Monomoy Girl, but on top of the trip, she may have needed the race, and that clearly wasn’t the goal for these connections. I think she’ll be much sharper in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks; #6 LA CARA (2-1): Wired the field in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Day, where she relished the slop and splashed home. I do think there’s other speed signed on, and I’m skeptical of some races contested over that quirky surface, but another Grade 1 win would give her three on the season; #4 TAKE CHARGE MILADY (9/2): Beat my top pick last time out after a throwout in the Kentucky Oaks, where she was battling a minor issue leading up to the race and clearly wasn’t herself. She was second behind La Cara in the Grade 1 Ashland, and she’d benefit from that one getting kept honest up front.

R11

Book’em Danno
Skelly
Mullikin

#5 BOOK’EM DANNO (5/2): Has proven to be a top-tier sprinter and will look for his third win in four Saratoga tries in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt. He ran very well to take the Grade 3 True North last time, and he was beaten just a neck by Mindframe two back in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Derby Day; #1 SKELLY (4-1): Seems like the controlling speed in this race, which is never a bad thing to be. When he’s good, he’s one of the fastest horses in the country, and he’ll look to do one better than last year, when he settled for second in this race as an even-money favorite; #4 MULLIKIN (7/2): Hit the front in the True North before being reeled in by my top pick, who also beat him to the wire in the Churchill Downs. I liked this one a lot in both spots, and his best effort is certainly good enough to win this, but given that he hasn’t won since August, it may be fair to wonder if he’s past his peak.

R12

Invictus
Stars and Strides
Vekoma Rides

#9 INVICTUS (4-1): Cut back to one turn last time but was left with far, far too much to do. He still salvaged fourth that day, though, and he showed a new dimension being able to make up ground. Given a less-eventful trip, I think he has what it takes to spring a mild upset of…; #6 STARS AND STRIDES (7/5): …who prevailed at first asking last time out and tries winners here. That race came back well from a speed figure standpoint, but again, that surface was quirky, and the runner-up was a major disappointment here earlier this week. At his likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against; #3 VEKOMA RIDES (10-1): May have needed his last-out effort, when he ran third downstate in his first outing since November. He tried some tough spots last year, including the Grade 1 Champagne, and he adds blinkers for a small but astute barn in the Saturday nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,175

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club opens its annual summer meet Friday amidst a weird time here in California. Northern California racing is dormant for this year (possibly for the foreseeable future), and given that this affected my adopted home track, I admittedly haven’t paid as close attention to Southern California racing as I used to.

The consolidation to one circuit did wind up leading to modest gains at Santa Anita. Having said that, the measure hits me as a band-aid. Fewer horses are being bred, and those horses aren’t running nearly as much as horses of generations past.

Despite prior run-ins with Del Mar’s establishment (if you haven’t heard that story, trust me, it’s a doozy), I hope they do well. However, my focus will continue to be on Saratoga, where I’ve enjoyed some success so far despite a late start to the meet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Annexperience got bet down to 9/5 in the second, which was a bit of a bummer, but he never looked like a loser and crushed his opponents. My $20 win wager returned $57.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I don’t love making my editor wait until later in the day, but this Grand Slam sequence is too attractive to pass up. I’ve got a few strong opinions, and my $10 ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 2,4,8 with 5 with 5 with 1. Additionally, I’ll play a cold $5 Pick Three starting in the seventh using those three singles. If Chad Brown has a big day, so do I.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

SARATOGA ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS FOR JULY 18TH, 2025

Best Bet: Asbury Park, Race 9
Longshot: Gun Song, Race 8

R1

Five Dozen Roses
Good Mission
Lady Delilah

#7 FIVE DOZEN ROSES (7/2): Took a step forward last time out and gets a massive jockey switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Friday opener. She sure looks like the one with the most gate speed, and if she gets comfortable early, I think she could prove tough to catch; #3 GOOD MISSION (5/2): Has certainly had plenty of chances and will look to graduate at 12th asking here. She does stack up well on speed figures, though, and I can see why she may go off as the favorite; #5 LADY DELILAH (6-1): Runs for a tag for the first time and gets Luis Saez, which makes her a bit intriguing. She’ll likely do her best running late, and at least she’s shown she’s capable of passing others.

R2

Bustin Bullet
Strictly Taboo
Shoot It True

#3 BUSTIN BULLET (9/2): Ships up from Gulfstream to run against fellow New York-breds, and she did that with aplomb last summer in her first start for this outfit. I think she’s the quickest of the likely speed horses here, and that she’ll be formidable if she gets her desired front-running trip; #9 STRICTLY TABOO (5-1): Is 2-for-2 here at Saratoga and had every right to need her last start off a long break. There’s certainly some zip signed on here, so she may get her desired race shape beneath regular rider Joel Rosario; #5 SHOOT IT TRUE (5/2): Comes in off several very fast workouts for powerhouse connections, and perhaps she’s ready to run a big one. However, this is her first turf try, and I can’t bet a horse as the favorite doing something it’s never done before (RIP, Harvey Pack).

R3

Ranger Battalion
Houlton
House United

I’m going to break from the usual format here, because I honestly don’t have a strong lean here. I went with #4 RANGER BATTALION (5-1) on top simply because he passed others late last time out, but if you’re playing multi-race exotics, I’d advise you to spread and go as deep as you can.

R4

The Taco Lady (MTO)
Inesperee
Mendee

#4 INESPEREE (6-1): Was a bit rank last time out when third in a race several others also exit. However, she may have needed the race off a bit of a break, and that was her first time going a marathon distance. For those reasons, I think a step forward may be in the offing here; #8 MENDEE (4-1): Looks like she could be the lone speed, which is always dangerous going long on the lawn. She got nailed last time out downstate, but Castellano sees fit to ride back and could have her on an easy lead once again; #10 GREEN JOBS (6-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and she goes second off the bench here. This will be her first time going a marathon distance, but the pedigree says she could take to it and Flavien Prat’s presence is a plus.

R5

Miss Im Pulsive (MTO)
Olivia’s Grace
Rad Llama

#2 OLIVIA’S GRACE (6-1): Has run well to be second in both starts to date, including one at this route last month. She was a bit wide that day, but gets a better draw here and would be a major player if she can find that form once again; #9 RAD LLAMA (6-1): Most recently faded to finish fourth behind Mommy’s Turn, who turned into a stakes winner earlier this week. She cuts back to a sprint here, and I think that may be her preferred route of ground; #6 APERITIF (12-1): Gets a big rider switch to Jose Ortiz after rallying to finish fourth in her turf debut downstate. He doesn’t ride for this barn much, so his presence is notable, and while she does step up in class a bit, it’s also possible she’s found what she wants to do.

R6

Party in the Army
Rock It Rob
Pepper J

#2 PARTY IN THE ARMY (5/2): Has a right to be precocious, being by Army Mule and out of a mare that won a stakes race as a juvenile. He comes in boasting a very sharp work tab for a trainer that can have 2-year-olds ready to go at first asking; #4 ROCK IT ROB (4-1): Debuts for Steve Asmussen and boasts the Asmussen workout pattern I love, with a strong two-back move followed by a maintenance work. He’s got plenty of class in his pedigree, with a dam that’s thrown five winners to date, but most of that pedigree does say he may want longer than this 5 1/2-furlong sprint; #8 PEPPER J (10-1): Hammered for $195,000 at auction despite a very modest pedigree and has a few sharp works on his tab. The outside draw is a plus for this colt that may be named as a nod to Pro Bowl linebacker Pepper Johnson (owner August Dawn Farm is, of course, Bill Parcells).

R7

Light the Way (MTO)
I’m Very Busy
Nantasket Beach

#5 I’M VERY BUSY (7/5): Comes off a very long break but will be very, very tough to beat if he’s ready to run. He’s a graded stakes winner who ran Warm Heart to a half-length in the Pegasus World Cup Turf a season ago, and if that version of this horse shows up, look out; #6 NANTASKET BEACH (3-1): Has won four of five this season and certainly seems to be in career-best form. He’s got some flexibility and rallied from ninth to get the money at Churchill Downs back in May; #7 BIG EVEREST (7/2): Certainly looks like the main early speed in here, and his best effort is quite good. He’s a stakes winner in his own right, and if he’s allowed to dictate terms from the jump, he and Joel Rosario could give the chalk a tough target to reel in.

R8

Raging Sea
Gun Song
Leslie’s Rose

#5 RAGING SEA (1-1): Won last year’s Grade 2 Shuvee and looks to repeat after a disappointing third in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. However, that race was contested in an absolute quagmire, so I have no problem drawing a line through it. Her usual effort would make her very hard to top; #2 GUN SONG (10-1): Represents value in the exotics despite a disappointing effort last time out at Delaware. Cross out the one-turn races two and three back, and her sheet looks quite a bit better. A return to her late-2024 form makes her a candidate to crash the exotics at a price; #3 LESLIE’S ROSE (5-1): Is winless since last year’s Grade 1 Ashland and looks to find her form here. Two clunkers have come in slop she clearly hates, though, and she did run a solid second behind Thorpedo Anna (and ahead of next-out Alabama winner Power Squeeze) in last year’s Grade 1 Acorn.

R9

Asbury Park
King of Ashes
Warlander

#1 ASBURY PARK (9/5): Ran very, very well off the bench to earn the diploma going away and faces winners for the first time here. However, there are no monsters for the level, and I think further improvement could be in the cards. Given that he may not need to move forward at all to win this, I can’t go against him; #7 KING OF ASHES (9/2): Just missed at a price in a listed stakes at Churchill and figures to be on or near the lead early. Irad Ortiz Jr. hops aboard, and he and trainer Brendan Walsh have a 32% strike rate over the last year; #8 WARLANDER (12-1): Has tried some tough spots in his career and didn’t have a great trip when third at this level last time out. His only true clunker came in the Grade 1 American Turf, and his back class could certainly come in handy here.

R10

Saipan
Dancin Jane
Princess Summer

#9 SAIPAN (4-1): Took to turf pretty well last time out, when she closed to run second in a race several rivals exit. The ability she showed to make up ground and pass others isn’t a common one, and she’s a tepid top pick in a wide-open finale because of it; #10 DANCIN JANE (5/2): Was an odds-on favorite last time and appeared to have every chance, but she could only settle for third. Perhaps she needed a race off the bench, but it’s worth noting she’s now lost ground between the last two points of call in all three races to date; #4 PRINCESS SUMMER (5-1): Raced wide in her return last month and might’ve moved a bit early. Still, she was beaten less than a length after being bet like a good thing given her lack of 2024 form, and it’s possible another step forward is coming in her second start after such a long break.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,138

Thursday is New York Thoroughbred Aftercare Day, where we celebrate organizations that do tireless work helping thoroughbreds after their racing days are over. The day’s events include showcases of horses that have gone from the racetrack to second careers in English and western disciplines.

Thoroughbred horses race for very short parts of their lives. They can live deep into their twenties (sometimes their thirties), and we only see them for a few years. A select few in each crop go off to stud, but thousands don’t, and the work done by organizations such as TAKE2, TAKE THE LEAD, New Vocations, and the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation is immensely valuable.

Enjoy the Thursday program, and if you do well, consider a donation to an aftercare organization.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: We got off to a pretty good start with the exacta in the eighth race. Gilmore won, My Noble Knight ran second, and my $30 investment returned $168.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a swing in the second race. As “best bets of the day” go, #9 ANNEXPERIENCE is a tepid one, but I’ve seen lone speed do well on the inner turf too much to ignore it when I see it. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS: JULY 17TH, 2025

Best Bet: Annexperience, Race 2
Longshot: Blame It On K J, Race 10

R1

Glint
Indy Magic
Az U Chase Me

#3 GLINT (2-1): Looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in races run out of the Wilson chute. He was second in a fast race for the level downstate last time out, and a repeat of that effort gives him a big shot in the Thursday lid-lifter; #6 INDY MAGIC (9/2): Comes back to the dirt after a failed turf experiment at Churchill and adds both blinkers and Luis Saez. This seems like what he wants to do, and his two-back win for this tag was a good one; #4 AZ U CHASE ME (6-1): Was very, very wide last time when fourth in the race my top pick also exits. His record includes a win at the Spa, and while he’s no burner out of the gate, I think he’s got more early speed than he showed last time out.

R2

Annexperience
Before the Wind
Spirit of the Law

#9 ANNEXPERIENCE (7/2): Sure looks like the lone speed, and that’s always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. I’m not quite sure if this distance is truly what he wants given his pedigree, but if he’s left alone up top through soft fractions, that might not matter; #2 BEFORE THE WIND (6-1): Adds blinkers and Irad Ortiz Jr. here after a wide trip downstate probably compromised him. He should save more ground here, and he did show a little tactical speed two back when second behind a much-the-best winner; #4 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (3-1): Ran on well late to be third in his turf debut last time and may be favored because of that. However, I simply don’t think the race shape works in his favor, and while I respect this barn a great deal, the stats show a 1-for-28 year as of this writing. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against.

R3

Outsource
Smooth Breeze
Leon Blue

#4 OUTSOURCE (4-1): Came from way, way back to get the money in his turf debut last time out, which doubled as his first start for this outfit. There seems to be some pace signed on in the Rick Violette, and while there’s some “bounce” potential here, a repeat effort would make him a major player; #6 SMOOTH BREEZE (7/5): Was a runaway winner two back before settling for second in an off-the-turf event last month. His first-out win at this route last summer was solid, and he wouldn’t be shocking, but I don’t think he towers over this group as much as his likely price suggests; #5 LEON BLUE (5/2): Was run down by my top pick last time, but has never truly run a bad race in five tries to this point. He’s not the only horse in here with early zip, but if he’s able to get comfortable, he could lead them a long way.

R4

Macaw
Schlomo
Ride Up

#2 MACAW (9/2): Has won two of three since coming off the bench and may offer some value stepping up in class. He probably didn’t beat a ton last time out, but he stacks up well on speed figures and has shown an ability to pass others late (which most of his opponents haven’t done yet); #7 SCHLOMO (6/5): Is another short price I’m a bit skeptical of early on. His two and three-back wins were sharp, but he’s far from the only speed horse in this field, and the class drop is an alarming one for this barn. Perhaps he makes me look silly, but there are some red flags here; #6 RIDE UP (7/2): Didn’t break that well when fourth last time out and was a solid wire-to-wire winner two back. He sports a flashy recent work and has won here before, so it’s possible he’s sitting on a bounce-back performance.

R5

Fiddling Felix
Aerate
Motel Patel

#8 FIDDLING FELIX (5/2): Takes a monster class drop here and may have needed his last start, which was his first try since October. He showed a bit of potential last season, including a fourth-place finish behind Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, and there’s reason to think he wakes up here; #2 AERATE (5-1): Ran up against some OK fields for the level three and four back and returns to dirt after an unlucky trip on the grass last time. He probably wasn’t winning, but the wide trip certainly cost him some ground, and the Ortiz/Rice combo merits respect; #9 MOTEL PATEL (8-1): Looks like the main speed in here, and that’s not a bad thing to be in bottom-level maiden claimers. He’s got some stamina issues, to be sure, but if he’s able to make an easy lead, he could be the one to catch turning for home.

R6

Big Heleonora (MTO)
Trading Trouble
Charlottesuniverse

#4 TRADING TROUBLE (8-1): Boasts some strong works for a barn that doesn’t usually push young horses too hard. She’s out of a mare by Exchange Rate, a fantastic turf influence, and her second dam, Considerate, was stakes-placed on the lawn; #7 CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE (3-1): Fetched $400,000 at auction last summer and is bred to be a good one. She’s by Into Mischief and comes from a classy female family with plenty of black-type horses attached. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because the pedigree doesn’t necessarily say she wants to go short or run on turf; #3 TICKET TO RIDE (20-1): Had a ton of trouble in the Astoria, which was an ambitious spot in which to debut anyway. In a race with plenty of first-time starters, she’s got a significant experience edge, and that may be enough for her to crash the exotics at a big price.

R7

Great Richie M
Divine Leader
Skylander

#2 GREAT RICHIE M (5/2): Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to make these kinds of moves. He could get an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip beneath Irad Ortiz Jr., and if he does, he’s probably the one they’ll have to hold off when the real running starts; #10 DIVINE LEADER (5-1): Has won twice at this tricky distance this season, albeit against what seem like easier groups than what he lines up against here. However, he’s probably the main speed, and he’s shown he can be tough to pass if he’s given his desired trip; #6 SKYLANDER (6-1): Cuts back to one turn after a failed route experiment against higher-level competition, and this seems like a better spot for him. It’s possible he’s tailed off a bit after the barn switch, but he’s a contender if he can channel his form from this past winter at Aqueduct.

R8

Stars and Stripes
Dr. Kraft
Lordship

#3 STARS AND STRIPES (6/5): Couldn’t have been much more impressive last time out, when he splashed home to win by double-digits at Aqueduct. This is a much better group, to be sure, but he has every right to move forward further in just his third career start. If he does, look out; #6 DR. KRAFT (4-1): Has enjoyed a strong 2025 campaign, with his lone off-the-board finish coming in a race where he couldn’t run on Lasix. His last-out win was a good one, and his usual race almost certainly gets him a piece of this one; #7 LORDSHIP (8-1): Tried stakes company at Monmouth last time, and those waters proved just a bit too deep. However, it’s not like he ran terribly that day, and while he probably needs to move forward on speed figures, that’s not impossible given these powerhouse connections and his relative inexperience.

R9

House United (MTO)
Enlighten
America’s Pastime entry

#7 ENLIGHTEN (8/5): Ran pretty well against better groups in each of his last two outings at Gulfstream Park, which were both won by horses that repeated at next asking. The drop in class here is notable, but at least it’s an optional claimer and not a straight claimer, so there are some signs this isn’t an attempt to dump the horse; #1 BRIT’S WIT (6-1): Cuts back to a mile, which hits me as his preferred trip. Toss the two and three-back efforts on non-turf surfaces, and his sheet looks much more impressive; #9 GEM MINT TEN (9/2): Comes back to what’s probably the right level after trailing in the Kingston here last month. It’s interesting that he’s reunited with Luis Saez, who rode him to a wire-to-wire score here last summer, and early speed is an asset on the inner.

R10

Mozambique (MTO)
Blame It On K J
Orie

#8 BLAME IT ON K J (15-1): Runs for a smaller outfit, but boasts a pedigree that can’t be ignored. He’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of a mare who won first time out, one that’s also a full sister to Daisy, who won a Grade 3 at two and threw multiple stakes-winning synthetic horse Botanical; #1 ORIE (5/2): Came running late to be second last time out and merits respect for Mike Maker and Flavien Prat. A repeat of that effort would give him a big shot, but I’m skeptical as to if there’s enough speed signed on to create another meltdown, which he may need; #6 VIKING WARRIOR (12-1): Adds Lasix and cuts back to one turn, both of which figure to be positive moves. His one-turn dirt races last year weren’t awful, he’s at least shown an ability to pass others, and Saez sees fit to hop aboard in a wide-open nightcap.