Belmont

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll Plays for Saturday, June 7 (BELMONT STAKES DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $87

In the past, I’ve been told I’m both too critical of horse racing and that I’m trying to suck up for a job, which I take as an assessment that I’m being pretty fair (since I’m ticking people off in equal measure). It’s in that spirit I urge NYRA to alter the stakes calendar for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival in future years for one specific reason.

The True North and Met Mile are on the same day. Several top contenders in the True North would have had chances in the bigger, higher-profile race, which goes with just a field of five (and one that had to be hustled to get to that point). Smaller stakes races siphoning talent from bigger ones isn’t a new issue, and the less we do that, the better the sport’s highest-profile events will be.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Louise Procter had way too much to do late in the seventh, and I dropped $45.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve been touting #2 MAY DAY READY in the sixth (the Wonder Again) to anyone who will listen, and that continues here. I’m keeping it simple with a $50 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: May Day Ready, Race 6
Longshot: Swiftsure, Race 3

R1

Rice entry
Will Be Famous
Roswell

RICE ENTRY (6/5): I prefer #1 SAVE US MELANIA, who’s won three times this season and jogged in her lone start over this surface last summer. I don’t think there’s a ton of speed signed on for the level, and while I’m far from excited about the likely price, this two-pronged entry is tough to go against on top; #8 WILL BE FAMOUS (6-1): Goes first off the claim for Rob Atras and has three wins and two seconds in her last five outings. She was a solid second last time out and Manny Franco rides back, but the 0-for-4 local mark is certainly a concern; #2 ROSWELL (7/2): Hasn’t run since November and hasn’t won in nearly a year and a half, but she ran well twice here a year ago and did find some tough spots towards the end of the season. She’s been working steadily for Bill Mott and would benefit from a faster-than-expected pace in the Belmont Day lid-lifter.

R2

Mainstream
Life and Times
Stars and Strides

#4 MAINSTREAM (6/5): Is another favorite whose price is a bit tough to stomach, but he’s run well twice at this tricky seven-furlong distance and was second in the slop last month at Churchill. There seem to be some well-meant firsters in here, but experience matters going seven furlongs, and I think today is graduation day; #8 LIFE AND TIMES (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher after a string of sharp drills downstate. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride this half-brother to Grade 1 winner Restless Rider (the dam is also kin to multiple graded stakes winner Private Vow); #5 STARS AND STRIDES (10-1): Is one of two well-bred debuters for Bill Mott, but while #6 COPIOUS (8-1) may get more attention due to dam Paradise Woods, this is the one I prefer. This son of American Pharoah is a half to stakes winner/debut winner Panther Island, and the win-early pedigree is paired with some very strong workouts.

R3

Certified Loverboy (MTO)
Swiftsure
Redistricting

#2 SWIFTSURE (8-1): Looks like the lone speed going two turns on the inner turf, and that’s always dangerous. He’s been off since March, but the recent workouts are very sharp, and given the likely race shape, I think he and jockey Luis Saez could get comfortable and be tough to run down at a price; #7 REDISTRICTING (6/5): Has some serious back class, having run second in a pair of graded races late last year. He’s logical, but he’s also not a massive standout on figures and will likely be a prohibitively short price; #4 EL REZEEN (6-1): Loves Saratoga, having won here twice last season in as many outings. This is his second start off the bench for Todd Pletcher, and I’m expecting an improvement from his seasonal debut at Keeneland in April.

R4

Echo Again
General Partner
Eliminate

#2 ECHO AGAIN (10-1): Probably moved a bit too early last time going a bit longer at Churchill, when he settled for third after a wide trip. This seven-furlong trip should fit him well, and it sure seems like there’ll be enough pace signed on for him to make up ground late; #9 GENERAL PARTNER (7/2): Has flashed immense potential at times but has faltered twice at odds-on this year. If he’s right, he’s probably the one to beat, but he’s also had a history of gate issues going back to his 2-year-old season, and that makes him a bit tough to trust; #7 ELIMINATE (9/2): Prevailed at this distance downstate against a first-level allowance group, and like my top pick, he’d benefit from a fast pace up front. He’s never missed the board in three starts at seven furlongs, and these connections merit respect.

R5

Silver Slugger
Re Markably
Rocketeer

#2 SILVER SLUGGER (5/2): Is my top pick for a very simple reason. He’s 6-for-6 with Lasix, and given that this isn’t a stakes race, he gets to run with it here. Add in that he just ran a good second in the Grade 3 John Nerud downstate, and I think he looks formidable in here; #8 RE MARKABLY (6-1): Comes off the bench in his first start for the Bill Mott barn and gets Lasix for the first time. He won a minor stakes race at Delaware last summer, and the switch to Flavien Prat for his 2025 debut implies he’s ready to run; #3 ROCKETEER (12-1): Might have needed his 2025 debut in late-April, which came after a break of more than six months. He has 2024 races that would give him a shot in here, and he won going a similar distance first time out, which means this could be the trip he wants.

R6

May Day Ready
Nitrogen
Al Jafara

#2 MAY DAY READY (9/2): Makes her return off the bench in the Grade 2 Wonder Again and is my pick to spring a mild upset. She won her debut here last summer before winning two stakes races and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The trip to Japan didn’t pan out, but her best is certainly good enough; #6 NITROGEN (1-1): Comes in on a four-race win streak and merits respect. The issue is, the one time she faced my top pick was on Breeders’ Cup Day, and she was third on that occasion behind that one and Lake Victoria. It’s not like she’s an awful favorite, but the odds disparity figures to be way too big; #1 AL JAFARA (6-1): Rallied from last to first to win her U.S. debut against allowance foes at Keeneland. She takes a big step up in class for this one, but she couldn’t have been much more visually impressive in her first stateside start for Chad Brown and may be ready for these deeper waters.

R7

Mullikin
Nakatomi
Book’em Danno

#6 MULLIKIN (2-1): Hit the front in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs, but was a bit short off the layoff and faded to finish fifth. That track was very tiring that day, and many horses coming off of layoffs paid for it. I think he’ll be sharper today, and if he is, he’s the one to beat in the Grade 3 True North; #4 NAKATOMI (4-1): Just missed in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen and comes in off of several bullet drills at Keeneland. He loves Saratoga, with two wins in three local starts (including last year’s renewal of the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt); #5 BOOK’EM DANNO (5/2): Finished fourth in the Churchill Downs and returns to the scene of his win in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on last year’s Belmont card. He’s shown more tactical speed in 2025 than he had a year ago, and that could come in handy on the slight cutback in distance.

R8

Fierceness
Raging Torrent
White Abarrio

#1 FIERCENESS (1-1): Returned with a bang in the Grade 2 Alysheba, where he broke the track record by nearly three-fifths of a second. Inside speed is always dangerous out of the Wilson chute, and if he’s at his best, I think he’ll be tough to run down in the Grade 1 Met Mile; #5 RAGING TORRENT (5-1): Ships in for Doug O’Neill, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, it seems like he’s at his best coming into this big spot. He was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Godolphin Mile at Meydan, and while he has tactical speed, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well; #2 WHITE ABARRIO (9/5): Has won his last two starts by a combined 11 1/2 lengths, and he’s won some of the biggest races in the game (including the 2023 renewal of the Grade 1 Whitney). My hesitation is that he was awful in last year’s Met Mile out of the chute, and some horses (much like some handicappers…) just don’t care for this particular route.

R9

Think Big
Ag Bullet
Our Shot

#2 THINK BIG (6/5): Has won three in a row at three different tracks and was an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Turf Sprint on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He likes turf courses with some give, and that’s the route he figures to get in the Grade 1 Jaipur (which features several horses he’s beaten this season); #9 AG BULLET (7/2): Had a terrible trip in the Grade 3 Unbridled Sidney, when she was guided to the inside and never got through. The switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one, and perhaps she needed that race given it was her first try since December; #3 OUR SHOT (8-1): Has hit the board in all four of his races at Saratoga. He’s a bit pace-dependent, but we know he likes this route of ground, and it does seem like there’s plenty of zip around him in the starting gate.

R10

Zulu Kingdom
Mi Bago
A. P. Kid

#1 ZULU KINGDOM (6/5): Has won five of six starts and looms large in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge. One of those wins came here in last summer’s Grade 3 With Anticipation. It seems like he’s only gotten better since then, and his usual race makes him strictly the one to beat; #7 MI BAGO (6-1): Gave backers a thrill when he spurted clear in the Grade 1 American Turf, but he ran out of gas and finished fourth behind my top pick. He once again figures to be the main speed, and given how powerful that can be on these turf courses, he could lead them a long way; #2 A. P. KID (10-1): Beat a few of today’s rivals in his turf debut back in March. This is a significant jump in class, but he may have room to improve given his relative inexperience, and the recent sharp workouts indicate he’s moving forward ahead of a tough first try against winners.

R11

Chancer McPatrick
Patch Adams
Big Truzz

#10 CHANCER MCPATRICK (4-1): Moves into the top spot after the scratch of #7 COLLOQUIAL (6-1), who would have been my top pick in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He was 3-for-3 around one turn as a 2-year-old, and two turns proved to not be his game. There’s speed in here, and I think he’s got a big chance to pick up the pieces at his preferred route of ground; #4 PATCH ADAMS (5-1): Is another who proved to simply be a one-turn horse, and he won a swiftly-run optional claimer in the slop on Kentucky Derby Day. The removal of Lasix is a question mark, but we know he likes this distance and he’s another now able to do what he wants to do; #1 BIG TRUZZ (10-1): Was an impressive debut winner before finishing second to my second choice last time out. He may have room to move forward, and he should get plenty of pace to chase. The question is, can he work out a trip from a tricky inside post?

R12

Far Bridge
Carson’s Run
Spirit of St Louis

#9 FAR BRIDGE (3-1): Ran third in the Grade 1 Manhattan a year ago against what hits me as a much better group, and he’s back for another crack at the apple here. He’s 2-for-2 this season, and unlike last year, the Europeans stayed home for the 2025 renewal of the traditional Belmont lead-in; #4 CARSON’S RUN (12-1): Merits a long look at a price in his second start off the bench. He was second in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy, a race he may have needed. He returns to a turf course he loves, he adds a bit of distance, and he may also get his desired conditions given some rain in the forecast; #6 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (5/2): Rose up from the New York-bred ranks to become one of the top turf horses in the country. He won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last time out, but that was an oddly-run race, and I’m not sure how much stock to put into it.

R13

Journalism
Hill Road
Sovereignty

#7 JOURNALISM (8/5): Stormed through between horses to win the Grade 1 Preakness, and his tactical speed should give him an edge in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. I think he could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace and get the jump on most of his rivals when the real running starts; #1 HILL ROAD (10-1): Seems like he’s getting ignored, but he finally got a pace in front of him in the Grade 3 Peter Pan and responded to that race shape. His nine-furlong times are similar to the major players in here, and I think there’s a chance he’s sitting on a career-best race for powerhouse connections; #2 SOVEREIGNTY (2-1): Has been rested since winning the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and there’s plenty to like given his effort that day. Having said that, boxing Journalism and Sovereignty in exactas is a losing strategy given the odds involved. I simply like the former better given the likely race shape, so I’ll focus on keying that one with a bigger price instead.

R14

Top Gun Rocket (MTO)
Jurisprudence
Smooth Breeze

#6 JURISPRUDENCE (6-1): It’s not often Chad Brown sends horses to Maryland, but that’s where this one rallied from way, way back to get the money in his debut. Turf racing on the east coast can be a bit finicky in the spring, so perhaps they were just trying to get him his desired surface. Either way, a logical step forward with experience would give him a big shot in his first try against winners; #8 SMOOTH BREEZE (9/2): Tried some tough spots after breaking his maiden at first asking here last summer and responded to a drop in class with an easy score last time out. This is a tougher, open-company spot, but it’s also a softer one compared to some of the races we’ve seen him in in the past; #4 DEUTERONOMY (5-1): Has never finished worse than second in four turf tries and merits a look if he’s ready to go off the bench. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride, and repeats of his races at Tampa would give him a chance in the nightcap.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll (6/8/24; BELMONT STAKES DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $110

Saturday is a big day at Saratoga. The 14-race extravaganza headlined by the Belmont Stakes is a history-making event, and as a racing fan, I’m very much looking forward to it (even if the first post time is before 8 am out here in California; pass the caffeine, please!).

What I hope, though, is that NYRA does not use any successes this week to justify extending the annual Saratoga meet. Doing that, I think, kills the golden goose that lays the golden egg. The appeal of Saratoga is that it’s different, and that the town comes alive for two months after spending the previous 10 months waiting for the circuit to come back.

I don’t have any insight on if that’s being considered or not. However, I do hope decision-makers keep Saratoga feeling like Saratoga, in as many ways as humanly possible, for as long as humanly possible.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: It was a good day in the pick box, but not so much here. El Capi sizzled through insane early fractions and had nothing left late. We dropped $50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: With the fields as big as they are, I’ll take a stab at the Grand Slam, which starts in the eighth race and features the four Grade 1 races before the Belmont. My $2 ticket goes as follows: 1,7 with 2,9,12 with 2,5,6 with 9. The goal is to extract some value out of #9 MEASURED TIME in the payoff leg, the Grade 1 Manhattan. In addition, I’ll have a $14 win bet on Measured Time, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Prince of Monaco, Race 8
Longshot: Sosua Summer, Race 9

R1

General Partner
Vespucci
Quick to Accuse

#3 GENERAL PARTNER (5/2): Is entered on Friday, but I hope he runs here, as this hits me as a much easier spot. This colt ran second in the Grade 1 Champagne last year before chasing Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he’s worked well ahead of his 2024 debut; #7 VESPUCCI (10-1): Stretches back out to a mile after finishing third in a sprint at Monmouth, and I think this is his preferred trip. His three-back loss was an absolute heartbreaker, and he ran into several next-out winners two back; #5 QUICK TO ACCUSE (7/2): Has won two in a row since going to the Brad Cox barn and takes a significant step up in class here. Both of those victories came against state-breds, and this one’s against open company.

R2

Rice entry (MTO)
Lady de Berry
Eclipse entry

#5 LADY DE BERRY (4-1): Looked like a legitimate prospect late last year, when she broke her maiden at Keeneland before running second in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar. She hasn’t raced since, but she’s working consistently for Chad Brown and seems like an overlay at the morning line price; ECLIPSE ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A SOURCE, who has a big chance despite a terrible post. She won first time out in France late last year and attracts Frankie Dettori (who should absolutely be enshrined in the Hall of Fame across the street, by the way…) for her North American debut; #11 AGRA (8-1): Is one of two Bill Mott trainees in here, and she makes her second start off the bench here. She’s improved since stretching out in distance over the winter and may be able to relax a bit beneath John Velazquez.

R3

Awesome Native
Subrogate
Full Screen

#6 AWESOME NATIVE (4-1): Is a deep closer in a race full of early speed and comes in off of several strong drills. The switch to a low-percentage barn is a concern, but if you subscribe to the notion that pace makes the race, he seems very, very dangerous; #5 SUBROGATE (5-1): Is 2-for-2 in dirt sprints, and it’s possible they’ve figured out what he wants to do after a few route experiments early on. His 2024 debut last time out was a good win, and this barn does great work with a small amount of stock; #8 FULL SCREEN (7/2): Has a frightening aversion to winning, with zero victories in the last two calendar years. However, he exits a few fast races against classy horses, the cutback in distance should help him, and he seems like a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

R4

Gun Pilot
Ninetyprcentmaddie
Accretive

#5 GUN PILOT (1-1): Earned his first Grade 1 win in the Churchill Downs on Derby Day and looms large in what hits me as a subpar renewal of the Grade 2 True North. He’s developed very nicely in his 4-year-old season, and unlike many in here, he can pass others late; #1 NINETYPRCENTMADDIE (8-1): Merits a long look in the exotics at a bit of a price given his consistency and late-running style. He ran a fast-closing second in the Grade 3 Runhappy downstate and should get plenty of pace to chase in here; #4 ACCRETIVE (5-1): May have turned into a bit of a hanger, as he was probably supposed to win last time out downstate. Still, his best race from a speed figure standpoint makes him a major player, and toss Chad Brown in a big spot at your own peril.

R5

Casa Creed
Carl Spackler
Talk of the Nation

#2 CASA CREED (9/5): Is a local favorite given his back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Fourstardave, and he looks tough in the Grade 3 Poker. This is a strong bunch, but he’s 4-for-6 over this turf course, has shown versatility, and should be ready off a bit of a freshening; #3 CARL SPACKLER (2-1): Presents the biggest challenge to my top pick and comes in on a three-race win streak. Most recently, he came off the bench to win the Opening Verse at Churchill, and he could be in position to improve off of that effort; #7 TALK OF THE NATION (7/2): Ran second behind my second choice last time out and has fired every time he’s run on the grass. This isn’t an easy spot, but he looks like the main pace factor, and that could make him dangerous.

R6

Bendoog
Crupi
Time for Trouble

#8 BENDOOG (2-1): Takes a significant jump in class to run in the Grade 2 Suburban, but he sure seems like the only horse that may want to go early. He got a perfect trip last time out downstate, and if another materializes here, he could prove tough to catch; #7 CRUPI (3-1): Didn’t do much running in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, but ran several strong races in a row before that (including a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup). He took a little while to come around, but he’s turned into a strong older horse for Hall of Fame conditioner Todd Pletcher; #5 TIME FOR TROUBLE (15-1): Has picked up minor awards against graded stakes foes in each of his last two outings, and I think he’ll relish the added distance he gets here. He ran third in the Grade 3 Essex two back, and I think that may very well have been a better group (that day’s winner, First Mission, came right back to win another graded stakes race).

R7

Idiomatic
Pretty Mischievous
Randomized

#5 IDIOMATIC (3/5): Came back running to romp in the Grade 1 La Troienne, and she’ll see her seventh straight score in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. The pace scenario may challenge her a bit, and she won’t be any sort of a price, but her usual race beats these (and that’s not a small statement, because this is a good group); #3 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (6-1): Chased the champ last time out in her first race since September, so there’s every reason to think she needed that effort. She should get more pace to chase, and on her best day, this three-time Grade 1 winner can fire a big shot; #1 RANDOMIZED (6-1): Was a distant second in the Grade 2 Ruffian last month, but that was her first start since a near-miss in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last November. She won the Grade 1 Alabama over this surface as a 3-year-old, and the recent, swift workout here indicates she’s thriving in upstate New York.

R8

Prince of Monaco
Book’em Danno
Reasoned Analysis

#7 PRINCE OF MONACO (7/2): Ships across the country for Bob Baffert and cuts back to seven furlongs for his 2024 debut in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He went 3-for-3 at sprint distances last year, including a win in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, and his work tab indicates he’s ready to run here; #1 BOOK’EM DANNO (9/2): Went 4-for-5 stateside before shipping to Saudi Arabia, where he was run down by eventual Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young. This seven-furlong trip should hit him right between the eyes, and he’s a major player if he can work out a trip from the inside post; #6 REASONED ANALYSIS (15-1): Turned in an eye-catching performance with his winning move in the Bay Shore downstate. That was against a weaker group, yes, but it’s not like they flew up front and the race fell apart. If the frontrunners go too fast early, this is the one they’ll need to deal with late.

R9

Arzak
Mischief Magic
Sosua Summer

#2 ARZAK (9/2): Has won three of his last four, with the lone defeat coming in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and he merits a long look in a power-packed renewal of the Grade 1 Jaipur. His last-out win in the Grade 2 Shakertown was a good one, and he’s run well at this route in the past; #12 MISCHIEF MAGIC (8-1): Has picked up checks in a pair of graded stakes races this year and gets reunited with first-call rider William Buick here. He’s also been gelded since his last start, which could result in a step forward for a horse that’s already a Grade 1 winner; #9 SOSUA SUMMER (20-1): Ran a clunker in the Shakertown, but he returns to his favorite turf course, one where he’s 3-for-3 at this route. He’ll certainly get a pace to chase, and at this price, I absolutely need to throw him in.

R10

White Abarrio
National Treasure
Hoist the Gold

#6 WHITE ABARRIO (6/5): Had a terrible trip to Saudi Arabia, where he was beaten 15 lengths in the Group 1 Saudi Cup. However, his run last year included a romp in the Grade 1 Whitney over this track, he’s training forwardly, and he’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 Met Mile; #2 NATIONAL TREASURE (8/5): Won last year’s Preakness and annexed the Pegasus World Cup in January before finishing fourth in Saudi Arabia. This one-mile trip should suit him, and if he’s allowed to get comfortable early, he could lead them a long way; #5 HOIST THE GOLD (15-1): Didn’t break well in the Churchill Downs last time out, where he was fifth behind True North favorite Gun Pilot. If he breaks well, he’ll definitely be a pace factor, and I think he’s better than what he showed last time out.

R11

Measured Time
Program Trading
Nations Pride

#9 MEASURED TIME (7/2): Most recently ran fourth in the Group 1 Dubai Turf against a world-class group. He’s already a Group 1 winner, he’s done very little wrong with five wins in seven lifetime starts, and if he ships well, he seems like the one to beat in the Grade 1 Manhattan; #5 PROGRAM TRADING (5/2): Came back running with a win in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard, running his career record to 5-for-6. He won a Grade 1 here last year, and if he takes a step forward second off the bench, he could absolutely do it again; #7 NATIONS PRIDE (9/2): Is the field’s leader in frequent flyer miles, with wins in five countries across three continents. One of them was in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby back in 2022, and I think he needed his run in the Grade 2 Man o’ War downstate off of a six-month break.

R12

Mystik Dan
Sierra Leone
Honor Marie

#3 MYSTIK DAN (5-1): Pulled off an upset in the Kentucky Derby and ran credibly when second in the Preakness two weeks later. He’s emerged as a consistent, versatile horse who can run well with any type of trip, which could come in handy in the Belmont Stakes; #9 SIERRA LEONE (9/5): Has displayed tons of ability and nearly ran down Mystik Dan in the Derby, but he was compromised by lots of contact. It’s not the first time he’s made his own trouble, and while his best race wins this, his temperament makes him difficult to trust at a short price; #8 HONOR MARIE (12-1): Never had a chance in Kentucky after being compromised by a terrible start. He was a “buzz” horse going into that race, he’s trained well since, and he should get plenty of pace to run at. If you liked him at 14-1 five weeks ago, you’ll likely get a similar price here.

R13

In All My Dreams
Bond entry
Top of the Table

#4 IN ALL MY DREAMS (7/2): Ran very well in her debut for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully-cranked. She made up ground in a race with a very slow early pace and was more than three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Any sort of improvement would make her tough in here; #1 ASSISI (15-1): Was the third-place finisher in that aforementioned event at Aqueduct, and she ran fairly well off of a long break. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride here, and that combined with the tightener she got last time out could move her forward; #10 TOP OF THE TABLE (10-1): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Offspring of Flameaway seem to like the lawn, she’s out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, and she may not need to move forward much from her two-back try at Aqueduct, when she was beaten just a neck by a next-out winner.

R14

What’s Up Bro (MTO)
Salt Spray
Yarrow

#2 SALT SPRAY (4-1): Set a very fast pace in his return at Keeneland before fading to third behind Clear the Air, who’s proven to be a classy turf sprinter. This field seems a bit weaker, and if he sets those kind of fractions in the Saturday finale, I think he runs his opponents off their feet; #6 YARROW (5-1): Was beaten less than a length in his first start since July last time out, and that day’s winner, Mischievous Angel, is another that could have a promising future. This gelding loves Saratoga, has never been worse than third in four local outings, and is reunited with soon-to-be Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario; #10 TWENTY SIX BLACK (6-1): Makes his second start off the bench and steps up into open company after a win against New York-breds downstate. He’s 3-for-3 on Lasix, gets that medication in this spot, and could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace.

2019 Belmont Stakes: Full-Card Analysis, Selections, and Tickets

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Belmont Stakes Day, and the folks at NYRA have come up with one of the best days of racing on the planet. The eight Grade 1 races boast a bunch of strong wagering opportunities (especially later in the card), and the day is headlined by the third jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

I’ll get to that first, because I know that’s what a lot of people want to read about. #9 WAR OF WILL and #10 TACITUS will almost certainly be the two favorites in some order, and for good reason. War of Will’s lone losses on dirt have come because of troubled trips, while Tacitus didn’t disgrace himself when third in the Kentucky Derby and is bred to handle this 12-furlong distance.

A lot of people are picking chalky exactas, and I see why. With that in mind, though, there are two bigger prices I need to have on my tickets. #4 TAX was an also-ran in the Derby, but I’m throwing that race out completely. He drew a terrible post and didn’t get his preferred stalking trip over a wet track (which he’d never run on before). There’s much less early speed signed on here, and he could sit an ideal trip just off the pace. He’s bred to like this trip, being by Arch and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and I think he could bounce back in a big way.

I’ll also need to use #8 INTREPID HEART, and similar to Tax, I think you can draw a line through the last-out effort. Intrepid Heart didn’t break well in the Grade 2 Peter Pan and was never really in the race as a result. The blinkers go on, and I think he could be the one they’re chasing early. 12-furlong races like this are often won on the front end, and it wouldn’t surprise me if John Velazquez was able to dictate friendly terms going down the backstretch.

I’ll be using all four of those horses in some form or fashion, but what about the rest of the card? Well, I’ll be breaking down each race below, as well as offering several Pick Four tickets (there are three sequences, which start in the second, eighth, and 10th races) and a Grand Slam wager near the end.

Enough talk; let’s get on with the show!

RACE #1: We start off with a puzzling race, and given the six-horse field and how chalky the rest of the early Pick Five appears, many players will likely punch the “ALL” button. #5 PRINCIPLED and #6 POTOMAC strike me as the horses to beat, and I’ll be watching the board carefully. Potomac has run two big races in a row, but was claimed last time out by Carlos Martin. Martin may not be a household name, and he may only be hitting at about 10% on the meet, but he’s a capable horseman, and anything close to the last two efforts would make this one tough to beat.

RACE #2: It’s tough to trust many of the runners with lots of experience in this turf route, as they’ve had plenty of chances to graduate. Based on Beyer Speed Figures, #4 NO MANS LAND is the horse to beat, but his history of coming close and not getting the job done doesn’t inspire confidence.

I’m using him, but my top pick is actually #9 UNCLE ARTIE, who stretches out in distance and ran a decent race two back at Keeneland beneath Joel Rosario, who rides him again here. I’m also going to throw in 12-1 shot #8 THE MORMON MAULER, who likely needed his debut and could benefit from a big jockey switch to Luis Saez.

RACE #3: This is the Easy Goer, and the morning line man thinks this is a two-horse race between #4 OUTSHINE and #6 ALWAYSMINING. I prefer the former, who ran a very good second to the possible Belmont favorite two back and lost all chance at the start of the Wood Memorial. In addition to those two, I’m also throwing in #5 MAJID, who has won three in a row since going to the Rudy Rodriguez barn and seems like the main speed.

RACE #4: This is the Grade 1 Just A Game, and it’s the first of back-to-back races with short fields and a heavy favorite I just cannot get past. In this case, it’s #4 RUSHING FALL, a three-time Grade 1 winner and the likely lone speed in this race. I don’t see any other runner in here going with her to set up for the closers, and because of that, I think she wires the field for her eighth win in nine career starts.

RACE #5: It’s disappointing to see the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps only draw a field of five, especially given that the older mare division is quite strong. However, my best bet of the day is here, and it’s a horse that, as good as she is around two turns, has always hit me as even better around one.

#2 MIDNIGHT BISOU is even-money on the morning line, and anything above that would hit me as an overlay. She won the Mother Goose for fun here last year, and all indications are that she’s even better now. I think she’ll sit a perfect stalking trip in this short field, and such a journey would likely result in a fourth consecutive victory.

RACE #6: Now a Grade 1, the Jaipur has drawn some of the top turf sprinters in the country. This includes morning line favorite #8 WORLD OF TROUBLE, but while he merits lots of respect, he’s not my top pick. I don’t think he’ll be alone on the front end here, and that could set things up for likely second choice #6 DISCO PARTNER. He loves Belmont and likely needed his 2019 debut in the Shakertown, which could slightly inflate the price we get Saturday afternoon.

RACE #7: From a betting perspective, out of all the undercard races, I’m most excited about this one. This is the Grade 1 Acorn, and it features Kentucky Oaks winner #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS. I’m against her here, as I think it’s highly unlikely she gets gifted another perfect trip (as she did last time out).

#7 GUARANA is actually the morning line favorite, and while there’s a chance she’s good enough, this is only her second career start, and her lone race came over a sloppy, sealed Keeneland track. I want the second and third-place finishers from the Grade 2 Eight Belles, #4 BELL’S THE ONE and #8 QUEEN OF BEAS. Both are closers, and in a race full of speed, a pace meltdown seems likely. They’ll both be prices, and they’ll both be featured prominently on any multi-race exotics ticket I play.

RACE #8: Like the Jaipur, the Woody Stephens is now also a Grade 1, and I think Chad Brown holds a very powerful hand. #4 COMPLEXITY makes his 2019 debut after a long layoff, but he’s been working very well, and this seven-furlong distance should hit him right between the eyes. Meanwhile, stablemate #1 HONEST MISCHIEF would benefit from a fast pace, which seems very likely. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but he’s bred to be very good, and the last-out Beyer of 97 ties for the highest in this field.

RACE #9: Many would argue that the Grade 1 Met Mile is actually the best race on the Belmont Stakes Day program, and I can’t disagree. It features several of the top older horses in training, and I believe that, if one of the logical horses wins, that horse is in the driver’s seat for Horse of the Year honors at this point in the season.

#2 MCKINZIE has been pointed to this race for months. Bob Baffert could’ve shipped him to Dubai, but he kept him stateside, and when Baffert works backwards, he doesn’t lose often. This route should be perfect for him, and I think he’s definitely the horse to beat.

In multi-race exotics, I’ll also use #3 MITOLE and #7 FIRENZE FIRE. Mitole stretches out to a mile after successfully handling seven furlongs last month, while Firenze Fire looks like a world-beater at Belmont and certainly has home-course advantage. At any rate, this is a fascinating race, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.

RACE #10: The Grade 1 Manhattan is the traditional lead-up for the Belmont, and this year’s renewal features #8 BRICKS AND MORTAR, likely the best turf horse in the country. He’s won four in a row, including two Grade 1 races, and if you want to single him, it’s understandable.

I loved #9 EPICAL before he was announced as a scratch, and I’m more than a bit bitter about not getting the chance to throw him in in hopes of him getting loose on the lead. If you’re looking for an alternative to Bricks and Mortar, I’d use #3 ROBERT BRUCE, who was beaten just a length in this race last year despite a strange trip. When he’s right, he’s very good, and he may not have cared for the wet turf course he got last time out.

RACE #12: They carded two races after the Belmont, and the first of those is a tricky optional claimer going long on the grass. I’m using the two bookends, and I think the most likely winner may be a square price.

That’s #10 BIRD’S EYE VIEW, who likes this turf course and has a substantial amount of back class. He’s run up against plenty of stakes-quality opposition, and I think his tactical speed will allow him to sit a perfect trip. I’m also going to use #1 PRIORITIZE, who almost certainly needed his last start and ran third in last year’s Grade 2 Hill Prince at this route.

RACE #13: We finish with the Grade 2 Brooklyn at the marathon 12-furlong distance. Unlike the Belmont, I think there may be a bit of speed signed on here, so my top pick is #6 ROCKETRY, who has shown a rare ability to make up ground going this long. He got very good near the end of last year, and if he channels that form, I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late.

I’ll also use several of the other logicals, as #1 MARCONI, #2 CAMPAIGN, and #7 YOU’RE TO BLAME are all contenders in good form. This wound up a very intriguing betting race, and your guess is as good as mine with regard to which horse winds up favored.

MULTI-RACE EXOTIC TICKETS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 4,8,9
R3: 4,5,6
R4: 4
R5: 2

9 Bets, $4.50

Either play it for cheap action early in the card, or punch it a few times to increase the potential payoff. I’m not sure how much this’ll pay, but I’ve at least left some room to beat a favorite or two early to squeeze whatever value I can out of the sequence.

$1 Grand Slam: Race #7

R7: 2,4,7,8
R8: 1,4,9
R9: 2
R10: 8

12 Bets, $12

I enjoy playing the Grand Slam at NYRA tracks when the payoff leg features a very heavy favorite. If you keep a chalk or two out of the money along the way, it’s essentially an enhanced-odds win bet (provided you get multiple tickets going, which is essential). That’s what I’m going for here, and hopefully I can get some value out of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4
R9: 2,3,7
R10: 3,8
R11: 4,8,9,10

48 Bets, $24

I like this sequence a lot. There are no singles in some big fields, and there’s room for some prices to shake things up. With how big the pool’s going to be, I had to take a swing here, and I’m happy with this $24 ticket that could pay stacks if Tax gets home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 3,8
R11: 4,8,9,10
R12: 1,10
R13: 1,2,6,7

64 Bets, $32

The last two races of the card may get lost in the shuffle, but they’re good betting races that don’t have clearly-defined favorites. This makes the final Pick Four of the day a very attractive sequence, one where I’ve got plenty of coverage for a reasonable amount of money.

ANALYSIS, SELECTIONS, AND TICKETS: Stars and Stripes Day, Belmont Park (7/7/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Stars and Stripes Day at Belmont Park, and it marks the beginning of the end of Belmont’s spring-summer meet. Some of the best horses on the grounds will be in action, and several stakes races drew shippers from as far away as Europe. I’ve got several multi-race tickets, and there’s a chance we’ll be able to build a nice stake ahead of the upcoming Saratoga meet. Let’s get to it!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4
R2: 2,5,6,7,9
R3: 8
R4: 1,3,5,6
R5: 5,6,7,8

80 Bets, $40

This ticket is built around a pair of horses that will likely be consensus singles. However, if we can get a price or two home around them, this could return a healthy sum.

The first single comes in the opener, a maiden race for 2-year-olds. That’s #4 SOCIAL PARANOIA, the lone entrant in this field with experience. He was a close-up second last time out behind Fully Loaded, who came back to win an allowance event Friday at Gulfstream Park. Any improvement off of his debut would make the 6/5 morning line favorite tough to beat.

The second race is an optional claimer that could double as a minor stakes race almost anywhere else in the country. #6 BREAKING THE RULES is the tepid morning line favorite, but he’s no cinch, and there are a few mid-level prices with big shots. #2 LIFE IN SHAMBLES ran against some tough competition at Aqueduct last winter, while #9 STREET VISION is 2 for 2 since being claimed by David Jacobson. I think both are must-uses in what strikes me as a fascinating event.

The third race, however, seems much more clear-cut. #8 AMERICAN GURU will likely be a heavy favorite, and for good reason. He’s a nose away from being undefeated, and based on the numbers, he’d have to regress pretty significantly off of his last two starts for the others to have a shot.

The fourth is a turf route contested at the 10-furlong route we’ll see in two Grade 1 races later on in the program. #5 RED KNIGHT seems logical, but all of his wins came against state-breds, so I can’t simply single him and move on. A horse that intrigues me at a bit of a price is #1 COUNTY COURT, who won impressively two back before rating in a paceless event in May. A return to the two-back form would make him a contender, and at 6-1 on the morning line, he could knock out plenty of tickets.

The payoff leg is a tricky allowance race, and you’ll want to go as deep as you can. #6 NIGEL’S DESTINY is the morning line favorite, but steps up in class off of a win over a weak field. I’ll use him, but I prefer #8 MR. DOUGIE FRESH, who was a close-up second in a fast race for the level last time out. Additionally, #7 FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN is worth a look at a big price. He won first time out (albeit against weaker foes), has been working well since coming to New York, and attracts Javier Castellano.

$0.50 Pick Five/Pick Four: Race #6/#7

R6: 3,6
– – –
R7: 1,2,4
R8: 1,3,4,5,6,10
R9: 8
R10: 3,4,7

108/54 Bets, $54/$27

There’s no lag time, as we end one Pick Five before quickly starting another. Important note: The Pick Five is only available through one ADW website. If you prefer to play a Pick Four, simply act as though the sixth-race selections don’t exist (which chops the ticket price in half).

The sixth race is the Grade 3 Dwyer, and I’m not getting cute. #6 MENDELSSOHN is my top pick, as I simply think the Kentucky Derby is an absolute throw-out. He was eliminated at the start, and he will be tough if he breaks cleanly here. I’ll also use #3 RUGBYMAN, who adds blinkers after a tough beat in the Easy Goer on Belmont Stakes Day.

The seventh is the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship. #1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL and #2 WHITMORE are world-class sprinters, but the horse to bet may be #4 SHAFT OF LIGHT, who cuts back after a tough beat in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile. For such a high-profile sprint, there isn’t much early speed signed on. If Shaft of Light gets out early, he could be tough to catch when the real running starts.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, and this struck me as the best betting race on the card. You’ll get a price on whatever horse(s) you like, and I felt the need to go deep. The longshot of the group is #3 PAVED, who’s 12-1 on the morning line but runs like a horse that will appreciate the 10-furlong distance. She’s got enough tactical speed to not be too far back early, and if she shows the late kick she displayed in the Grade 2 Honeymoon, she’ll have a big shot.

My single comes in the ninth, the Grade 2 Suburban. Bob Baffert has two in here, but while #5 DR. DORR is the morning line favorite, I prefer #8 HOPPERTUNITY, who’s 2 for 2 at Belmont and won the 2016 Jockey Club Gold Cup at this route of ground. His lone loss this season came over a speed-favoring track in the Grade 2 Alysheba, and even if he’s lost a step at age 7, I think he’s the horse to beat if he fires his best shot. He’s 9/2 on the morning line, and I’m hoping we get that price.

The payoff leg is the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and I’m going three-deep. #7 CATHOLIC BOY and #3 ANALYZE IT finished 1-2 in the local prep for this race, and both could win, but European shipper #4 HUNTING HORN looks very dangerous. He’s improved with every start to this point in his career, and his recent Group 3 win was incredibly impressive. I’m always partial to European shippers adding Lasix, as he does, and I need to have him on my tickets.

CHAMPAGNE’S CAMPAIGNS: The Ballad of Big Brown

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Even though I was there, I don’t remember much about the 2008 Belmont Stakes. My main memory of that day is picking out a spot on the third level of the Belmont Park grandstand an hour before the race. The crowd began packing everyone in like sardines, and in an effort to hold my position across from the sixteenth pole, I clutched a sign advertising the section below it for dear life. It wasn’t pretty, but after a few minutes of pushing, people got the idea that I wasn’t moving.

It’s taken me 10 years, but I’ve realized that’s a heck of a metaphor for the way racing fans hold on to certain beliefs. We hold on tight, with white-knuckled grips that signify either deeply held convictions or immense fears of being wrong, but either way, when such a topic arises in conversation, we’ll speak our respective pieces as loudly as we can.

I was a college student then. I’d just finished my sophomore year at Ithaca College, and much as I had for Funny Cide and Smarty Jones, I had successfully persuaded a parent (in this case, my father) to take me to the Belmont.

I watched with baited breath as Big Brown, the easiest of winners in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, strolled into the starting gate. The crowd’s buzz was audible, as it had been during my prior ventures to cancelled coronations in both 2003 and 2004.

The horses settled in the starting gate, among them the undefeated Big Brown, with Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux in the irons.

The race started.

And then, an instant later, it was over.

– – – – –

I got the inspiration to write this column from a brief discussion with Desormeaux on Twitter Wednesday morning. I’d just woken up, 45 minutes before the start of my work day, and I saw that he’d retweeted something saying he was online and answering questions.

Having heard several theories on what happened that muggy Long Island afternoon, and having not yet acquired the filter that comes with consciousness, I asked if any of the conspiracy theories about that afternoon held water. Desormeaux, predictably, was not amused.

There was, however, an ulterior motive to my line of questioning. If you ask a group of racing fans who the top horse of the mid to late-2000’s was, you’ll get a fair variety of responses. Many fans will say either Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra. Some will say fellow Hall of Famer Curlin, or even Rags to Riches (the filly who edged the two-time Horse of the Year in the 2007 Belmont). Barbaro will also be fondly remembered, if only for the memories of what might have been if not for his catastrophic injury in the Preakness. Big Brown’s name likely doesn’t come up in that conversation. For various reasons, the bay son of Boundary isn’t seen as one of the best of his generation, despite wins in every single race he finished.

Much of this is undoubtedly due to the horse’s connections, which seemed to be under an interminable cloud of controversy. Big Brown was owned by IEAH Stables, which operated as horse racing’s version of a hedge fund. They had achieved considerable success with horses like 2007 turf champion Kip Deville and eventual 2008 champion sprinter Benny the Bull, but something about the enterprise did not mesh well with the racing establishment.

As the excellent Deadspin article on IEAH cited, perhaps it was the “new money” aspect of the organization that rubbed some the wrong way. What did not help the public perception of the enterprise, though, was IEAH’s trainer of choice. Rick Dutrow was one of the most gifted horsemen on the NYRA circuit, one that many feel was railroaded when he was slapped with a 10-year suspension. He was also brash, opinionated, and never afraid of a microphone, especially when the topic of conversation was one of his fastest trainees. As gifted a conditioner as he was, Dutrow did himself no favors when it came to public relations.

Horses cannot choose their connections. Many of the four-legged immortals whose form we admire were so talented that their owners and trainers were, in some way, bystanders to their brilliance, just like the rest of us. Man o’ War was that way. So was Secretariat. A case could be made for Zenyatta as well, given her personality and tendency to prance around walking rings as if she owned them (with one exception, she may as well have).

Even if he had cruised to victory in the Belmont Stakes, Big Brown would have never had that luxury. His owners were not the “happy to be there” types, nor was his trainer. A sect of the racing industry would have viewed Big Brown as the black sheep of the Triple Crown winners, horse racing’s equivalent to the cousin or uncle that never gets invited over for Thanksgiving dinner. In no way is this the fault of a supremely talented racehorse that was on the verge of greatness, but such is the legacy of Team Big Brown.

For these reasons, Big Brown has been given the short end of the stick for a decade. In no way is this more evident than when you compare the 2008 standout to a horse of more recent vintage that hit a similar wall (or, more accurately, was hit by a similar hoof) when going a mile and a half in New York.

– – – – –

The year was 2014. A California-bred of humble beginnings had taken the horse racing world by storm, and was now one Big Sandy lap away from doing what Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown could not.

California Chrome walked into the starting gate beneath Victor Espinoza, whose career the son of Lucky Pulpit almost singlehandedly revived. Once again, I was there. This time, I was on assignment for HRTV, and I was watching not from the grandstand, but from the Long Island Railroad platform near the top of the stretch, less than 100 yards from the HRTV trailer.

Chrome broke a bit awkwardly, but settled into what seemed like a fine trip. Turning for home, he looked like a winner, and Espinoza began pumping his arms. However, when the eventual Hall of Fame reinsman stepped on the gas pedal, he found that the tank was empty. California Chrome hung and settled for fourth behind Tonalist.

Within 24 hours, former HRTV and TVG colleague Scott Hazelton had unearthed a reason for Chrome’s flat performance. Matterhorn, a hopeless longshot in the race, had stepped on the Triple Crown hopeful out of the gate, causing a massive gash that took social media by storm. In the eyes of the racing world, California Chrome’s effort went from disappointing to borderline heroic, and followers eagerly waited to see when the fan favorite would return to the track.

He raced three more times that year. He was once again one-paced in the Pennsylvania Derby, which was unapologetically viewed by his connections as both a prep and a paid workout given the incentives offered by Parx. He then ran a strong third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race marred by Bayern’s antics out of the starting gate and a non-disqualification that’s even more indefensible now than it was at the time, before cruising home in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby on turf at Del Mar. Despite losing to Bayern twice, and despite failing to win a Grade 1 on dirt after the Preakness, California Chrome was voted the 2014 Horse of the Year.

All of this goes in stark contrast to what took place six years earlier. Big Brown was stepped on coming out of the gate by a horse named Guadalcanal, a horse for whom Joe Nevills’s “no times 17” haiku would’ve been appropriate. As Desormeaux said, ESPN followed the trail of blood all the way back to the barn. Big Brown bounced back to win twice more before being retired prior to a highly-anticipated Breeders’ Cup Classic showdown with Curlin…and yet could finish no better than third in Horse of the Year voting. Curlin had done enough to earn the trophy despite a fourth-place finish in the Classic, but the real shock was that Zenyatta, who hadn’t yet run against males, finished second. The four Grade 1 wins, two of which came in Triple Crown races, as well as a win over older horses on turf in a $500,000 race…earned Big Brown 13 first-place votes.

Why does history make Big Brown pay for the sins of his connections? Separate the horse from the humans around him, and you have one of the most brilliant horses since the turn of the millennium, one that may have been even better on turf than he was on dirt. Racing’s lineage is filled with imperfect characters of the human variety, whether any of us want to admit it or not. The way we perceive Big Brown, 10 years after his failed Triple Crown bid, reflects the ever-selective “character clause” that’s so popular in other sports. I’m of the belief that one can separate the horse from the people associated with it, and that this is the way we should approach the 2008 dual classic winner.