Belmont Stakes

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll Plays for Saturday, June 7 (BELMONT STAKES DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $87

In the past, I’ve been told I’m both too critical of horse racing and that I’m trying to suck up for a job, which I take as an assessment that I’m being pretty fair (since I’m ticking people off in equal measure). It’s in that spirit I urge NYRA to alter the stakes calendar for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival in future years for one specific reason.

The True North and Met Mile are on the same day. Several top contenders in the True North would have had chances in the bigger, higher-profile race, which goes with just a field of five (and one that had to be hustled to get to that point). Smaller stakes races siphoning talent from bigger ones isn’t a new issue, and the less we do that, the better the sport’s highest-profile events will be.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Louise Procter had way too much to do late in the seventh, and I dropped $45.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve been touting #2 MAY DAY READY in the sixth (the Wonder Again) to anyone who will listen, and that continues here. I’m keeping it simple with a $50 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

Want to see more Saratoga content? I’ve got a daily tip sheet available on Winners and Whiners with in-depth feature race analysis and a bonus spot play. Check that out here, and use the promo code CHAMP20 for 20% off any individual item!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: May Day Ready, Race 6
Longshot: Swiftsure, Race 3

R1

Rice entry
Will Be Famous
Roswell

RICE ENTRY (6/5): I prefer #1 SAVE US MELANIA, who’s won three times this season and jogged in her lone start over this surface last summer. I don’t think there’s a ton of speed signed on for the level, and while I’m far from excited about the likely price, this two-pronged entry is tough to go against on top; #8 WILL BE FAMOUS (6-1): Goes first off the claim for Rob Atras and has three wins and two seconds in her last five outings. She was a solid second last time out and Manny Franco rides back, but the 0-for-4 local mark is certainly a concern; #2 ROSWELL (7/2): Hasn’t run since November and hasn’t won in nearly a year and a half, but she ran well twice here a year ago and did find some tough spots towards the end of the season. She’s been working steadily for Bill Mott and would benefit from a faster-than-expected pace in the Belmont Day lid-lifter.

R2

Mainstream
Life and Times
Stars and Strides

#4 MAINSTREAM (6/5): Is another favorite whose price is a bit tough to stomach, but he’s run well twice at this tricky seven-furlong distance and was second in the slop last month at Churchill. There seem to be some well-meant firsters in here, but experience matters going seven furlongs, and I think today is graduation day; #8 LIFE AND TIMES (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher after a string of sharp drills downstate. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride this half-brother to Grade 1 winner Restless Rider (the dam is also kin to multiple graded stakes winner Private Vow); #5 STARS AND STRIDES (10-1): Is one of two well-bred debuters for Bill Mott, but while #6 COPIOUS (8-1) may get more attention due to dam Paradise Woods, this is the one I prefer. This son of American Pharoah is a half to stakes winner/debut winner Panther Island, and the win-early pedigree is paired with some very strong workouts.

R3

Certified Loverboy (MTO)
Swiftsure
Redistricting

#2 SWIFTSURE (8-1): Looks like the lone speed going two turns on the inner turf, and that’s always dangerous. He’s been off since March, but the recent workouts are very sharp, and given the likely race shape, I think he and jockey Luis Saez could get comfortable and be tough to run down at a price; #7 REDISTRICTING (6/5): Has some serious back class, having run second in a pair of graded races late last year. He’s logical, but he’s also not a massive standout on figures and will likely be a prohibitively short price; #4 EL REZEEN (6-1): Loves Saratoga, having won here twice last season in as many outings. This is his second start off the bench for Todd Pletcher, and I’m expecting an improvement from his seasonal debut at Keeneland in April.

R4

Echo Again
General Partner
Eliminate

#2 ECHO AGAIN (10-1): Probably moved a bit too early last time going a bit longer at Churchill, when he settled for third after a wide trip. This seven-furlong trip should fit him well, and it sure seems like there’ll be enough pace signed on for him to make up ground late; #9 GENERAL PARTNER (7/2): Has flashed immense potential at times but has faltered twice at odds-on this year. If he’s right, he’s probably the one to beat, but he’s also had a history of gate issues going back to his 2-year-old season, and that makes him a bit tough to trust; #7 ELIMINATE (9/2): Prevailed at this distance downstate against a first-level allowance group, and like my top pick, he’d benefit from a fast pace up front. He’s never missed the board in three starts at seven furlongs, and these connections merit respect.

R5

Silver Slugger
Re Markably
Rocketeer

#2 SILVER SLUGGER (5/2): Is my top pick for a very simple reason. He’s 6-for-6 with Lasix, and given that this isn’t a stakes race, he gets to run with it here. Add in that he just ran a good second in the Grade 3 John Nerud downstate, and I think he looks formidable in here; #8 RE MARKABLY (6-1): Comes off the bench in his first start for the Bill Mott barn and gets Lasix for the first time. He won a minor stakes race at Delaware last summer, and the switch to Flavien Prat for his 2025 debut implies he’s ready to run; #3 ROCKETEER (12-1): Might have needed his 2025 debut in late-April, which came after a break of more than six months. He has 2024 races that would give him a shot in here, and he won going a similar distance first time out, which means this could be the trip he wants.

R6

May Day Ready
Nitrogen
Al Jafara

#2 MAY DAY READY (9/2): Makes her return off the bench in the Grade 2 Wonder Again and is my pick to spring a mild upset. She won her debut here last summer before winning two stakes races and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The trip to Japan didn’t pan out, but her best is certainly good enough; #6 NITROGEN (1-1): Comes in on a four-race win streak and merits respect. The issue is, the one time she faced my top pick was on Breeders’ Cup Day, and she was third on that occasion behind that one and Lake Victoria. It’s not like she’s an awful favorite, but the odds disparity figures to be way too big; #1 AL JAFARA (6-1): Rallied from last to first to win her U.S. debut against allowance foes at Keeneland. She takes a big step up in class for this one, but she couldn’t have been much more visually impressive in her first stateside start for Chad Brown and may be ready for these deeper waters.

R7

Mullikin
Nakatomi
Book’em Danno

#6 MULLIKIN (2-1): Hit the front in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs, but was a bit short off the layoff and faded to finish fifth. That track was very tiring that day, and many horses coming off of layoffs paid for it. I think he’ll be sharper today, and if he is, he’s the one to beat in the Grade 3 True North; #4 NAKATOMI (4-1): Just missed in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen and comes in off of several bullet drills at Keeneland. He loves Saratoga, with two wins in three local starts (including last year’s renewal of the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt); #5 BOOK’EM DANNO (5/2): Finished fourth in the Churchill Downs and returns to the scene of his win in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on last year’s Belmont card. He’s shown more tactical speed in 2025 than he had a year ago, and that could come in handy on the slight cutback in distance.

R8

Fierceness
Raging Torrent
White Abarrio

#1 FIERCENESS (1-1): Returned with a bang in the Grade 2 Alysheba, where he broke the track record by nearly three-fifths of a second. Inside speed is always dangerous out of the Wilson chute, and if he’s at his best, I think he’ll be tough to run down in the Grade 1 Met Mile; #5 RAGING TORRENT (5-1): Ships in for Doug O’Neill, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, it seems like he’s at his best coming into this big spot. He was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Godolphin Mile at Meydan, and while he has tactical speed, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well; #2 WHITE ABARRIO (9/5): Has won his last two starts by a combined 11 1/2 lengths, and he’s won some of the biggest races in the game (including the 2023 renewal of the Grade 1 Whitney). My hesitation is that he was awful in last year’s Met Mile out of the chute, and some horses (much like some handicappers…) just don’t care for this particular route.

R9

Think Big
Ag Bullet
Our Shot

#2 THINK BIG (6/5): Has won three in a row at three different tracks and was an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Turf Sprint on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He likes turf courses with some give, and that’s the route he figures to get in the Grade 1 Jaipur (which features several horses he’s beaten this season); #9 AG BULLET (7/2): Had a terrible trip in the Grade 3 Unbridled Sidney, when she was guided to the inside and never got through. The switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one, and perhaps she needed that race given it was her first try since December; #3 OUR SHOT (8-1): Has hit the board in all four of his races at Saratoga. He’s a bit pace-dependent, but we know he likes this route of ground, and it does seem like there’s plenty of zip around him in the starting gate.

R10

Zulu Kingdom
Mi Bago
A. P. Kid

#1 ZULU KINGDOM (6/5): Has won five of six starts and looms large in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge. One of those wins came here in last summer’s Grade 3 With Anticipation. It seems like he’s only gotten better since then, and his usual race makes him strictly the one to beat; #7 MI BAGO (6-1): Gave backers a thrill when he spurted clear in the Grade 1 American Turf, but he ran out of gas and finished fourth behind my top pick. He once again figures to be the main speed, and given how powerful that can be on these turf courses, he could lead them a long way; #2 A. P. KID (10-1): Beat a few of today’s rivals in his turf debut back in March. This is a significant jump in class, but he may have room to improve given his relative inexperience, and the recent sharp workouts indicate he’s moving forward ahead of a tough first try against winners.

R11

Chancer McPatrick
Patch Adams
Big Truzz

#10 CHANCER MCPATRICK (4-1): Moves into the top spot after the scratch of #7 COLLOQUIAL (6-1), who would have been my top pick in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He was 3-for-3 around one turn as a 2-year-old, and two turns proved to not be his game. There’s speed in here, and I think he’s got a big chance to pick up the pieces at his preferred route of ground; #4 PATCH ADAMS (5-1): Is another who proved to simply be a one-turn horse, and he won a swiftly-run optional claimer in the slop on Kentucky Derby Day. The removal of Lasix is a question mark, but we know he likes this distance and he’s another now able to do what he wants to do; #1 BIG TRUZZ (10-1): Was an impressive debut winner before finishing second to my second choice last time out. He may have room to move forward, and he should get plenty of pace to chase. The question is, can he work out a trip from a tricky inside post?

R12

Far Bridge
Carson’s Run
Spirit of St Louis

#9 FAR BRIDGE (3-1): Ran third in the Grade 1 Manhattan a year ago against what hits me as a much better group, and he’s back for another crack at the apple here. He’s 2-for-2 this season, and unlike last year, the Europeans stayed home for the 2025 renewal of the traditional Belmont lead-in; #4 CARSON’S RUN (12-1): Merits a long look at a price in his second start off the bench. He was second in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy, a race he may have needed. He returns to a turf course he loves, he adds a bit of distance, and he may also get his desired conditions given some rain in the forecast; #6 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (5/2): Rose up from the New York-bred ranks to become one of the top turf horses in the country. He won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last time out, but that was an oddly-run race, and I’m not sure how much stock to put into it.

R13

Journalism
Hill Road
Sovereignty

#7 JOURNALISM (8/5): Stormed through between horses to win the Grade 1 Preakness, and his tactical speed should give him an edge in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. I think he could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace and get the jump on most of his rivals when the real running starts; #1 HILL ROAD (10-1): Seems like he’s getting ignored, but he finally got a pace in front of him in the Grade 3 Peter Pan and responded to that race shape. His nine-furlong times are similar to the major players in here, and I think there’s a chance he’s sitting on a career-best race for powerhouse connections; #2 SOVEREIGNTY (2-1): Has been rested since winning the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and there’s plenty to like given his effort that day. Having said that, boxing Journalism and Sovereignty in exactas is a losing strategy given the odds involved. I simply like the former better given the likely race shape, so I’ll focus on keying that one with a bigger price instead.

R14

Top Gun Rocket (MTO)
Jurisprudence
Smooth Breeze

#6 JURISPRUDENCE (6-1): It’s not often Chad Brown sends horses to Maryland, but that’s where this one rallied from way, way back to get the money in his debut. Turf racing on the east coast can be a bit finicky in the spring, so perhaps they were just trying to get him his desired surface. Either way, a logical step forward with experience would give him a big shot in his first try against winners; #8 SMOOTH BREEZE (9/2): Tried some tough spots after breaking his maiden at first asking here last summer and responded to a drop in class with an easy score last time out. This is a tougher, open-company spot, but it’s also a softer one compared to some of the races we’ve seen him in in the past; #4 DEUTERONOMY (5-1): Has never finished worse than second in four turf tries and merits a look if he’s ready to go off the bench. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride, and repeats of his races at Tampa would give him a chance in the nightcap.

2019 Belmont Stakes: Full-Card Analysis, Selections, and Tickets

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Belmont Stakes Day, and the folks at NYRA have come up with one of the best days of racing on the planet. The eight Grade 1 races boast a bunch of strong wagering opportunities (especially later in the card), and the day is headlined by the third jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

I’ll get to that first, because I know that’s what a lot of people want to read about. #9 WAR OF WILL and #10 TACITUS will almost certainly be the two favorites in some order, and for good reason. War of Will’s lone losses on dirt have come because of troubled trips, while Tacitus didn’t disgrace himself when third in the Kentucky Derby and is bred to handle this 12-furlong distance.

A lot of people are picking chalky exactas, and I see why. With that in mind, though, there are two bigger prices I need to have on my tickets. #4 TAX was an also-ran in the Derby, but I’m throwing that race out completely. He drew a terrible post and didn’t get his preferred stalking trip over a wet track (which he’d never run on before). There’s much less early speed signed on here, and he could sit an ideal trip just off the pace. He’s bred to like this trip, being by Arch and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and I think he could bounce back in a big way.

I’ll also need to use #8 INTREPID HEART, and similar to Tax, I think you can draw a line through the last-out effort. Intrepid Heart didn’t break well in the Grade 2 Peter Pan and was never really in the race as a result. The blinkers go on, and I think he could be the one they’re chasing early. 12-furlong races like this are often won on the front end, and it wouldn’t surprise me if John Velazquez was able to dictate friendly terms going down the backstretch.

I’ll be using all four of those horses in some form or fashion, but what about the rest of the card? Well, I’ll be breaking down each race below, as well as offering several Pick Four tickets (there are three sequences, which start in the second, eighth, and 10th races) and a Grand Slam wager near the end.

Enough talk; let’s get on with the show!

RACE #1: We start off with a puzzling race, and given the six-horse field and how chalky the rest of the early Pick Five appears, many players will likely punch the “ALL” button. #5 PRINCIPLED and #6 POTOMAC strike me as the horses to beat, and I’ll be watching the board carefully. Potomac has run two big races in a row, but was claimed last time out by Carlos Martin. Martin may not be a household name, and he may only be hitting at about 10% on the meet, but he’s a capable horseman, and anything close to the last two efforts would make this one tough to beat.

RACE #2: It’s tough to trust many of the runners with lots of experience in this turf route, as they’ve had plenty of chances to graduate. Based on Beyer Speed Figures, #4 NO MANS LAND is the horse to beat, but his history of coming close and not getting the job done doesn’t inspire confidence.

I’m using him, but my top pick is actually #9 UNCLE ARTIE, who stretches out in distance and ran a decent race two back at Keeneland beneath Joel Rosario, who rides him again here. I’m also going to throw in 12-1 shot #8 THE MORMON MAULER, who likely needed his debut and could benefit from a big jockey switch to Luis Saez.

RACE #3: This is the Easy Goer, and the morning line man thinks this is a two-horse race between #4 OUTSHINE and #6 ALWAYSMINING. I prefer the former, who ran a very good second to the possible Belmont favorite two back and lost all chance at the start of the Wood Memorial. In addition to those two, I’m also throwing in #5 MAJID, who has won three in a row since going to the Rudy Rodriguez barn and seems like the main speed.

RACE #4: This is the Grade 1 Just A Game, and it’s the first of back-to-back races with short fields and a heavy favorite I just cannot get past. In this case, it’s #4 RUSHING FALL, a three-time Grade 1 winner and the likely lone speed in this race. I don’t see any other runner in here going with her to set up for the closers, and because of that, I think she wires the field for her eighth win in nine career starts.

RACE #5: It’s disappointing to see the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps only draw a field of five, especially given that the older mare division is quite strong. However, my best bet of the day is here, and it’s a horse that, as good as she is around two turns, has always hit me as even better around one.

#2 MIDNIGHT BISOU is even-money on the morning line, and anything above that would hit me as an overlay. She won the Mother Goose for fun here last year, and all indications are that she’s even better now. I think she’ll sit a perfect stalking trip in this short field, and such a journey would likely result in a fourth consecutive victory.

RACE #6: Now a Grade 1, the Jaipur has drawn some of the top turf sprinters in the country. This includes morning line favorite #8 WORLD OF TROUBLE, but while he merits lots of respect, he’s not my top pick. I don’t think he’ll be alone on the front end here, and that could set things up for likely second choice #6 DISCO PARTNER. He loves Belmont and likely needed his 2019 debut in the Shakertown, which could slightly inflate the price we get Saturday afternoon.

RACE #7: From a betting perspective, out of all the undercard races, I’m most excited about this one. This is the Grade 1 Acorn, and it features Kentucky Oaks winner #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS. I’m against her here, as I think it’s highly unlikely she gets gifted another perfect trip (as she did last time out).

#7 GUARANA is actually the morning line favorite, and while there’s a chance she’s good enough, this is only her second career start, and her lone race came over a sloppy, sealed Keeneland track. I want the second and third-place finishers from the Grade 2 Eight Belles, #4 BELL’S THE ONE and #8 QUEEN OF BEAS. Both are closers, and in a race full of speed, a pace meltdown seems likely. They’ll both be prices, and they’ll both be featured prominently on any multi-race exotics ticket I play.

RACE #8: Like the Jaipur, the Woody Stephens is now also a Grade 1, and I think Chad Brown holds a very powerful hand. #4 COMPLEXITY makes his 2019 debut after a long layoff, but he’s been working very well, and this seven-furlong distance should hit him right between the eyes. Meanwhile, stablemate #1 HONEST MISCHIEF would benefit from a fast pace, which seems very likely. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but he’s bred to be very good, and the last-out Beyer of 97 ties for the highest in this field.

RACE #9: Many would argue that the Grade 1 Met Mile is actually the best race on the Belmont Stakes Day program, and I can’t disagree. It features several of the top older horses in training, and I believe that, if one of the logical horses wins, that horse is in the driver’s seat for Horse of the Year honors at this point in the season.

#2 MCKINZIE has been pointed to this race for months. Bob Baffert could’ve shipped him to Dubai, but he kept him stateside, and when Baffert works backwards, he doesn’t lose often. This route should be perfect for him, and I think he’s definitely the horse to beat.

In multi-race exotics, I’ll also use #3 MITOLE and #7 FIRENZE FIRE. Mitole stretches out to a mile after successfully handling seven furlongs last month, while Firenze Fire looks like a world-beater at Belmont and certainly has home-course advantage. At any rate, this is a fascinating race, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.

RACE #10: The Grade 1 Manhattan is the traditional lead-up for the Belmont, and this year’s renewal features #8 BRICKS AND MORTAR, likely the best turf horse in the country. He’s won four in a row, including two Grade 1 races, and if you want to single him, it’s understandable.

I loved #9 EPICAL before he was announced as a scratch, and I’m more than a bit bitter about not getting the chance to throw him in in hopes of him getting loose on the lead. If you’re looking for an alternative to Bricks and Mortar, I’d use #3 ROBERT BRUCE, who was beaten just a length in this race last year despite a strange trip. When he’s right, he’s very good, and he may not have cared for the wet turf course he got last time out.

RACE #12: They carded two races after the Belmont, and the first of those is a tricky optional claimer going long on the grass. I’m using the two bookends, and I think the most likely winner may be a square price.

That’s #10 BIRD’S EYE VIEW, who likes this turf course and has a substantial amount of back class. He’s run up against plenty of stakes-quality opposition, and I think his tactical speed will allow him to sit a perfect trip. I’m also going to use #1 PRIORITIZE, who almost certainly needed his last start and ran third in last year’s Grade 2 Hill Prince at this route.

RACE #13: We finish with the Grade 2 Brooklyn at the marathon 12-furlong distance. Unlike the Belmont, I think there may be a bit of speed signed on here, so my top pick is #6 ROCKETRY, who has shown a rare ability to make up ground going this long. He got very good near the end of last year, and if he channels that form, I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late.

I’ll also use several of the other logicals, as #1 MARCONI, #2 CAMPAIGN, and #7 YOU’RE TO BLAME are all contenders in good form. This wound up a very intriguing betting race, and your guess is as good as mine with regard to which horse winds up favored.

MULTI-RACE EXOTIC TICKETS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 4,8,9
R3: 4,5,6
R4: 4
R5: 2

9 Bets, $4.50

Either play it for cheap action early in the card, or punch it a few times to increase the potential payoff. I’m not sure how much this’ll pay, but I’ve at least left some room to beat a favorite or two early to squeeze whatever value I can out of the sequence.

$1 Grand Slam: Race #7

R7: 2,4,7,8
R8: 1,4,9
R9: 2
R10: 8

12 Bets, $12

I enjoy playing the Grand Slam at NYRA tracks when the payoff leg features a very heavy favorite. If you keep a chalk or two out of the money along the way, it’s essentially an enhanced-odds win bet (provided you get multiple tickets going, which is essential). That’s what I’m going for here, and hopefully I can get some value out of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4
R9: 2,3,7
R10: 3,8
R11: 4,8,9,10

48 Bets, $24

I like this sequence a lot. There are no singles in some big fields, and there’s room for some prices to shake things up. With how big the pool’s going to be, I had to take a swing here, and I’m happy with this $24 ticket that could pay stacks if Tax gets home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 3,8
R11: 4,8,9,10
R12: 1,10
R13: 1,2,6,7

64 Bets, $32

The last two races of the card may get lost in the shuffle, but they’re good betting races that don’t have clearly-defined favorites. This makes the final Pick Four of the day a very attractive sequence, one where I’ve got plenty of coverage for a reasonable amount of money.

CHAMPAGNE’S CAMPAIGNS: The Ballad of Big Brown

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Even though I was there, I don’t remember much about the 2008 Belmont Stakes. My main memory of that day is picking out a spot on the third level of the Belmont Park grandstand an hour before the race. The crowd began packing everyone in like sardines, and in an effort to hold my position across from the sixteenth pole, I clutched a sign advertising the section below it for dear life. It wasn’t pretty, but after a few minutes of pushing, people got the idea that I wasn’t moving.

It’s taken me 10 years, but I’ve realized that’s a heck of a metaphor for the way racing fans hold on to certain beliefs. We hold on tight, with white-knuckled grips that signify either deeply held convictions or immense fears of being wrong, but either way, when such a topic arises in conversation, we’ll speak our respective pieces as loudly as we can.

I was a college student then. I’d just finished my sophomore year at Ithaca College, and much as I had for Funny Cide and Smarty Jones, I had successfully persuaded a parent (in this case, my father) to take me to the Belmont.

I watched with baited breath as Big Brown, the easiest of winners in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, strolled into the starting gate. The crowd’s buzz was audible, as it had been during my prior ventures to cancelled coronations in both 2003 and 2004.

The horses settled in the starting gate, among them the undefeated Big Brown, with Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux in the irons.

The race started.

And then, an instant later, it was over.

– – – – –

I got the inspiration to write this column from a brief discussion with Desormeaux on Twitter Wednesday morning. I’d just woken up, 45 minutes before the start of my work day, and I saw that he’d retweeted something saying he was online and answering questions.

Having heard several theories on what happened that muggy Long Island afternoon, and having not yet acquired the filter that comes with consciousness, I asked if any of the conspiracy theories about that afternoon held water. Desormeaux, predictably, was not amused.

There was, however, an ulterior motive to my line of questioning. If you ask a group of racing fans who the top horse of the mid to late-2000’s was, you’ll get a fair variety of responses. Many fans will say either Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra. Some will say fellow Hall of Famer Curlin, or even Rags to Riches (the filly who edged the two-time Horse of the Year in the 2007 Belmont). Barbaro will also be fondly remembered, if only for the memories of what might have been if not for his catastrophic injury in the Preakness. Big Brown’s name likely doesn’t come up in that conversation. For various reasons, the bay son of Boundary isn’t seen as one of the best of his generation, despite wins in every single race he finished.

Much of this is undoubtedly due to the horse’s connections, which seemed to be under an interminable cloud of controversy. Big Brown was owned by IEAH Stables, which operated as horse racing’s version of a hedge fund. They had achieved considerable success with horses like 2007 turf champion Kip Deville and eventual 2008 champion sprinter Benny the Bull, but something about the enterprise did not mesh well with the racing establishment.

As the excellent Deadspin article on IEAH cited, perhaps it was the “new money” aspect of the organization that rubbed some the wrong way. What did not help the public perception of the enterprise, though, was IEAH’s trainer of choice. Rick Dutrow was one of the most gifted horsemen on the NYRA circuit, one that many feel was railroaded when he was slapped with a 10-year suspension. He was also brash, opinionated, and never afraid of a microphone, especially when the topic of conversation was one of his fastest trainees. As gifted a conditioner as he was, Dutrow did himself no favors when it came to public relations.

Horses cannot choose their connections. Many of the four-legged immortals whose form we admire were so talented that their owners and trainers were, in some way, bystanders to their brilliance, just like the rest of us. Man o’ War was that way. So was Secretariat. A case could be made for Zenyatta as well, given her personality and tendency to prance around walking rings as if she owned them (with one exception, she may as well have).

Even if he had cruised to victory in the Belmont Stakes, Big Brown would have never had that luxury. His owners were not the “happy to be there” types, nor was his trainer. A sect of the racing industry would have viewed Big Brown as the black sheep of the Triple Crown winners, horse racing’s equivalent to the cousin or uncle that never gets invited over for Thanksgiving dinner. In no way is this the fault of a supremely talented racehorse that was on the verge of greatness, but such is the legacy of Team Big Brown.

For these reasons, Big Brown has been given the short end of the stick for a decade. In no way is this more evident than when you compare the 2008 standout to a horse of more recent vintage that hit a similar wall (or, more accurately, was hit by a similar hoof) when going a mile and a half in New York.

– – – – –

The year was 2014. A California-bred of humble beginnings had taken the horse racing world by storm, and was now one Big Sandy lap away from doing what Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown could not.

California Chrome walked into the starting gate beneath Victor Espinoza, whose career the son of Lucky Pulpit almost singlehandedly revived. Once again, I was there. This time, I was on assignment for HRTV, and I was watching not from the grandstand, but from the Long Island Railroad platform near the top of the stretch, less than 100 yards from the HRTV trailer.

Chrome broke a bit awkwardly, but settled into what seemed like a fine trip. Turning for home, he looked like a winner, and Espinoza began pumping his arms. However, when the eventual Hall of Fame reinsman stepped on the gas pedal, he found that the tank was empty. California Chrome hung and settled for fourth behind Tonalist.

Within 24 hours, former HRTV and TVG colleague Scott Hazelton had unearthed a reason for Chrome’s flat performance. Matterhorn, a hopeless longshot in the race, had stepped on the Triple Crown hopeful out of the gate, causing a massive gash that took social media by storm. In the eyes of the racing world, California Chrome’s effort went from disappointing to borderline heroic, and followers eagerly waited to see when the fan favorite would return to the track.

He raced three more times that year. He was once again one-paced in the Pennsylvania Derby, which was unapologetically viewed by his connections as both a prep and a paid workout given the incentives offered by Parx. He then ran a strong third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race marred by Bayern’s antics out of the starting gate and a non-disqualification that’s even more indefensible now than it was at the time, before cruising home in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby on turf at Del Mar. Despite losing to Bayern twice, and despite failing to win a Grade 1 on dirt after the Preakness, California Chrome was voted the 2014 Horse of the Year.

All of this goes in stark contrast to what took place six years earlier. Big Brown was stepped on coming out of the gate by a horse named Guadalcanal, a horse for whom Joe Nevills’s “no times 17” haiku would’ve been appropriate. As Desormeaux said, ESPN followed the trail of blood all the way back to the barn. Big Brown bounced back to win twice more before being retired prior to a highly-anticipated Breeders’ Cup Classic showdown with Curlin…and yet could finish no better than third in Horse of the Year voting. Curlin had done enough to earn the trophy despite a fourth-place finish in the Classic, but the real shock was that Zenyatta, who hadn’t yet run against males, finished second. The four Grade 1 wins, two of which came in Triple Crown races, as well as a win over older horses on turf in a $500,000 race…earned Big Brown 13 first-place votes.

Why does history make Big Brown pay for the sins of his connections? Separate the horse from the humans around him, and you have one of the most brilliant horses since the turn of the millennium, one that may have been even better on turf than he was on dirt. Racing’s lineage is filled with imperfect characters of the human variety, whether any of us want to admit it or not. The way we perceive Big Brown, 10 years after his failed Triple Crown bid, reflects the ever-selective “character clause” that’s so popular in other sports. I’m of the belief that one can separate the horse from the people associated with it, and that this is the way we should approach the 2008 dual classic winner.

2018 Belmont Stakes: Analysis, Selections, Tickets, and Unpopular Opinions

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Let’s get one crucifixion-inducing opinion out of the way right now: If Justify loses the Belmont Stakes, thus failing to win horse racing’s Triple Crown, there’s a chance I make a LOT of money.

In my heart, I want Justify to channel Secretariat and guzzle the field with the type of performance where he could stop at King Umberto’s for a slice and a Jay Privman handshake going around the first turn, chow down on the backstretch, burp a few times around the far turn, and win by 20. If I’ve said this once, I’ve said it a thousand times: Horse racing needs stars, and if Justify can go from an unraced maiden to a Triple Crown winner in less than four months, he’ll ascend to a level few equines of the past century have reached.

From a gambling standpoint, though, I think it’s worth trying to beat him (as I also explained following the Preakness). The old gambling adage says to never bet a horse, as the favorite, to do something it’s never done before. The Belmont will be Justify’s sixth start in less than four months, and it will be contested at the grueling distance of a mile and a half against a sizable field, some of whom are bred up and down for this trip (more on two of them later). His Preakness wasn’t atrocious, but it was certainly a step back from his prior efforts. If he brings his Kentucky Derby form with him Saturday, maybe the race is for second. If he brings his Preakness form, where he edged two longshots by less than a length (one of which he dusted two weeks prior), then the race is much more wide-open than the odds board will say it is.

For those reasons, I think it’s prudent to take a swing against Justify in the Belmont. If Justify wins, I’ll consider my $40 money well-spent to ensure racing’s pantheon of greats opens its doors to another one, and I’ll cheer right along with the racing public. However, if one of the two horses I’m using in the all-stakes Pick Four wins, I stand to make, to quote former TVG colleague Todd Schrupp, racks on racks on racks (hi, Todd!).

We’ll dive into that Pick Four later, but first, we’ll talk about the races that comprise the early Pick Five. I like that sequence, and it’s one where you may be rewarded handsomely even without the presence of big prices. Let’s take a look!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1,6
R2: 2,3,6,7
R3: 4,6
R4: 3,7
R5: 3,9

64 Bets, $32

I don’t have singles on my ticket, and that’s by design. I think many of these races can be whittled down to just two horses, with the second being the most wide-open of the bunch.

I couldn’t get past the two likely favorites in the opener, as #1 LA MONEDA and #6 WAR CANOE look like the ones to beat. The former comes back to turf after a race she probably needed off the long layoff, while the latter outran her 38-1 odds when third in a state-bred stakes race last month and gets class relief here.

The second race is the Easy Goer, which last year was won by eventual champion West Coast. I can’t see a horse in here getting that good by year’s end, but it’s a solid group. #2 MASK looks imposing if you can forgive his clunker in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile, which was in a bog off of a four-month break. I’m using him, but I don’t think he’s any sort of a cinch. #3 RUGBYMAN graduated by a city block last time out, #6 BREAKING THE RULES is 2 for 2 and bred up and down for distance, and #7 DARK VADER comes in off a lifetime-best effort in a classy optional claimer (the third-place finisher came back to win a Cal-bred stakes race).

Race #3 is the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps for older fillies and mares. #6 ABEL TASMAN is a must-use. She’ll be favored and appears to be working with a purpose since her seasonal debut, where she ran fourth in the Grade 1 La Troienne. We know she can handle Belmont, and Bob Baffert may have her fully cranked. However, I also need to use #4 PACIFIC WIND. She’s 2 for 2 since coming to the Chad Brown barn, and one of those wins came in the Grade 2 Ruffian. If you toss out last year’s Grade 2 Bayakoa over a quirky Los Alamitos surface, she’s undefeated on dirt, and I think she could give last year’s Champion 3-Year-Old Filly all she can handle.

The fourth is the Grade 1 Acorn. #3 MONOMOY GIRL may be the shortest-priced favorite on the card, and that includes Justify in the Belmont. She’s emerged as the top 3-year-old filly in the country, but I have enough reservations here to where I cannot single her and move on. I think she’s a two-turn horse, and her lone one-turn race on dirt, while a win, came over a soft field. The other one I need to have on my ticket is #7 TALK VEUVE TO ME, who ran really well when second in the Grade 2 Eight Belles. She was nearly five lengths clear of the third-place finisher that day, and I don’t think this distance will be a problem. The outside post helps her, and she’ll certainly be a playable price.

The payoff leg is the Grade 2 Brooklyn for older horses going a mile and a half. #9 WAR STORY won this race last year and has done tremendous work when placed in the right spots (also known as steering clear of Gun Runner). He was very impressive in this race a season ago, and a repeat effort would make him tough. The only horse I could see beating him is #3 HARD STUDY, who is a perfect 6 for 6 over fast dirt tracks and exits a runaway win in the Flat Out, which serves as Belmont’s local prep for this event.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,3,4,5,7
R9: 2,4,10,11
R10: 1,10
R11: 4,8

80 Bets, $40

Yep, not only am I tossing Justify, but I’m also trying to beat Mind Your Biscuits in the Grade 1 Met Mile. I’ll talk a bit more about that when we get to that race.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Just a Game, and I don’t have a clue. I spread pretty deep in here, and if I could’ve afforded to buy the race, I would have done so. Chad Brown’s got a few strong runners in here, as both #3 OFF LIMITS and #7 A RAVING BEAUTY could win. Depending on how the turf course is playing, though, #4 LULL could be dangerous. She’s the main early speed in this race, and Belmont’s turf course tends to be very kind to horses that are forwardly-positioned. If she’s allowed to dictate terms, she could forget to stop, and if that happens, we’ll start this wager off with a mild upset.

The ninth is the Grade 1 Met Mile, and as mentioned, I’m against #1 MIND YOUR BISCUITS. Yes, he ran a colossal race in Dubai, when he rallied from well back on a track that had been favoring speed for weeks. Having said that, his record at this distance isn’t great. He was second in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last year, and he ran OK that day, but he actually lost ground to Sharp Azteca late, which isn’t what you want to see from a closer. The rail draw also presents a problem, and it’s not like there’s much early speed signed on.

I’m going four-deep without using that one, and my top pick is a big price on the morning line. That’s #4 MCCRAKEN, who’s perfect at this distance, has been pointed to this race for months by his connections, and could be sitting on a big performance second off of the long layoff. #10 BEE JERSEY seems like the main speed, and #11 AWESOME SLEW never seems to run a bad race, so I had to use them both. Finally, I threw #2 BOLT D’ORO on my ticket as well. If you toss out the Kentucky Derby, where he was not persevered with late, he fits with this group, and he’s been working lights-out at Keeneland since that effort.

I couldn’t get past the two Chad Brown trainees in the 10th, the Grade 1 Manhattan. #1 ROBERT BRUCE and #10 BEACH PATROL look like the best horses in here, and while the former can certainly win, I prefer the latter. The Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs was contested over one of the wettest turf courses we’ve seen over the past several years, and Beach Patrol ran a game second in a race that doubled as his first start in six months while going shorter than he probably wants to go. This trip should be more to his liking, and if he’s fully-cranked, I think he’ll be tough to beat.

This brings us to the Belmont Stakes. You already know that I’m taking a stand against Justify. Instead, I’ll rely on top pick #4 HOFBURG, who’s bred up and down for this trip and had a ton of trouble in the Kentucky Derby, and #8 VINO ROSSO, whose one-paced style and distance-oriented pedigree make him a natural fit for this race. Perhaps they need Justify to regress, but if that happens and this ticket hits, it’s entirely possible we’re looking at a massive score by my modest standards.

CHAMPAGNE’S CAMPAIGNS: Justify, The Triple Crown, And a Realist Hoping He’s Wrong

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Few fans of this game want a Triple Crown more than I do. Four times between 2003 and 2014, I went to Belmont Park begging for a coronation, and four times, I left dejected.

Funny Cide left his race on the training track several days before the race and was no match for Empire Maker, a horse who may as well have been typed into the “Belmont winners” table on Wikipedia the moment Toussaud was bred to Unbridled. Smarty Jones was the victim of something that most closely resembled an ambush, one that makes this handicapper do a double-take whenever a certain jockey-turned-commentator criticizes a ride. California Chrome was stepped on coming out of the gate, but quietly ran a gigantic race in defeat. He looked like a winner up until mid-stretch, when the Cal-Bred That Could finally ran out of gas after taking the sport on the first of two wild rides he’d orchestrate. Big Brown…well, we’ll never really know what happened there, and that proved to be the first domino to fall in one of the most fascinating stories in horse racing history (this Deadspin article is required reading).

I say all of this as a preface to a statement I don’t want to make. It’s one that goes against every fiber of my being as a racing fan, which every turf writer and broadcaster still is at heart. If the below statement is wrong, I will gladly endure the mocking on Twitter that I openly spurn most of the time.

Here goes. Inhale…exhale…Justify will not win the Triple Crown.

(ducks to avoid an onslaught of tomatoes, detached chair legs, and anything else that isn’t nailed down)

Can I come up now and explain myself? OK, good.

What Justify has done to this point in his career is nothing short of phenomenal. It isn’t just that he defied the Curse of Apollo, and it’s not just that he went on to add the Preakness Stakes this past Saturday. In less than 100 days, Justify has gone from an unraced prospect to the biggest name in horse racing, winning five starts in an era where top-level horses often need that 100-day period between races for such cardinal sins as running second or third in a Grade 1.

In this era of racing, horses do not do what Justify has done over the past three-plus months. Gone are the days where 3-year-olds would run six to eight times at two, and then have four or five starts before the Triple Crown on top of that. Present-day horses are bred to be “brilliant,” often being sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars based on “breezes” of one furlong long before they’ve fully matured.

Amidst this environment, Justify has won five races, three of the Grade 1 variety and two designated as American classics. That he has done so makes him an exceptional thoroughbred. That he has done so in slightly longer than it took Phileas Fogg to circumnavigate the globe in Jules Verne’s classic novel, “Around the World in Eighty Days,” puts him in different air than even the best horses we’ve seen in recent racing history.

That journey also makes him appear very vulnerable heading into the 2018 Belmont Stakes.

The obvious reason for not being high on Justify was his run in the Preakness, where he held off Bravazo and Tenfold to win by a rapidly-diminishing half-length. Yes, he had to match strides with the talented Good Magic early, but he did so through reasonable fractions over a very fast track. Those splits were significantly slower than the ones he endured two weeks earlier, and while the final time was sharp (a shade below 1:56 for the 1 3/16-mile distance), it’s worth pointing out, yet again, that the sloppy track consistently produced fast times all day long.

Justify earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure Saturday, a significant regression from the 103 he earned in the Kentucky Derby (which, itself, was a slight decrease from the 107 number he was given for his win in the Santa Anita Derby). A 97 Beyer Speed Figure may not be enough in three weeks against a field that figures to include several horses freshened up since the Kentucky Derby. The likes of Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and fellow WinStar Farm charge Audible could all be waiting for another shot at Justify, and after Saturday’s step back, it’s tough to say there’s any reason for any of those colts not to try again. Bravazo and Tenfold are nice horses, but Bravazo was a distant sixth in the Kentucky Derby, and Tenfold didn’t even qualify to run in that event.

Furthermore, the Belmont Stakes will be Justify’s sixth race in less than four months. On its own, that’s daunting enough. Consider this, though: Justify will be running in that race, contested at the grueling distance of 1 1/2 miles, after barely holding on over second-tier 3-year-olds going five-sixteenths of a mile shorter, all with a picture-perfect trip. There are times where you can safely assume the Belmont distance won’t be a problem for a horse. This isn’t one of those instances.

One of my best friends in the game is Joe Nevills, and prior to the Kentucky Derby, he did a piece on the average winning distances of each Derby sire. Scat Daddy ranked eighth of 14 sires, with an AWD of just under seven furlongs. Meanwhile, Tapit, who has sired the last two Belmont winners and figures to be represented by Hofburg in this year’s renewal, was second on that list, and Curlin (the sire of Vino Rosso) checked in third. On its own, it’s not necessarily a damning statistic, but given what we saw Saturday and the trials and tribulations that come with running five times since mid-February, there are serious questions about whether this undefeated star can go 12 furlongs.

I would love nothing more than to be wrong about all of this. If Justify reveals himself as a superhorse and gallops home like fellow Bob Baffert trainee American Pharoah did three years ago, that’s just fine with me. Racing needs stars, and it needs them to run consistently over long periods of time. I say this next statement without a shred of hyperbole or exaggeration: If Justify was to pull off a sweep of the Triple Crown races after being an unraced maiden less than four months prior to the Belmont, it would be one of the greatest stories in the history of the game.

Unfortunately, what I saw Saturday at the end of the Preakness wasn’t a horse being eased to the wire like one with plenty in reserve. Mike Smith’s subtle easing of Justify as he came to the wire struck me as a move made to save a few drops of gas for another taxing race in three weeks, one where the competition figures to be considerably tougher (even with the likely absence of Good Magic in mind). As a fan, I crave a Secretariat-like performance, one that puts him in horse racing’s highest pantheon of four-legged immortals that boasts a gate opened just once in the past 40 years.

As a handicapper? I don’t think it’s happening.