SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/26/20)
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SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Another lousy day in this section, as Standup was left with too much to do in the fifth and doubles and Pick Threes went kaput. We dropped $31.
SUNDAY’S PLAY: It’s tough to say I love much on this card, but I’m interested in seeing if #10 RIVER TIBER can step forward after a disappointing debut. If he does, I think he’ll be very tough in the fifth. Let’s go with a $15 win bet and $5 doubles singling him to start and ending with #1 JAZZIQUE and #3 LOGIC N REASON in the sixth.
TOTAL WAGERED: $25.
Best Bet: River Tiber, Race 5
Longshot: Dreamonmebaby, Race 10
More Like It
#3 ADVANCED STRATEGY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. He’s by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie, out of a Big Brown mare, and was an OK third in his career debut back in December; #6 MORE LIKE IT: Ran well when second at this level downstate and retains the services of Jose Ortiz. Of the ones with prior turf experience, he hits me as the most logical winner; #5 SILVER TOKEN: Was third in the same race my second selection exits and wants to sit way back before making one run. He’s got the talent to win this, but may need more pace than he’ll get.
Judge N Jury
#6 EFFINITY: Is the only runner in here with any experience. He was a good second in his debut and draws a cushy outside post at second asking for a powerful barn that’s due to get rolling; #2 JUDGE N JURY: Hammered for $200,000 across the street last year and has worked well for Danny Gargan. First-call rider Manny Franco gets the mount, and this combination has hit at a very high rate; #5 ARROWHEART: Is another with some strong works on the tab ahead of his unveiling. He’s well-bred and may have potential, but this barn’s runners often need a race or two to get going.
Heirloom Kitten (MTO)
Shootin the Breeze
Road to Meath
#5 SHOOTIN THE BREEZE: Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out, when he was a late-running second at this level at Belmont. He hasn’t won in a while, but there’s plenty of pace in here and I think he’ll get the setup he wants; #10 ROAD TO MEATH: Is a logical favorite dropping in class for Chad Brown. However, he hasn’t run since March, and perhaps he doesn’t want to go two turns; #9 MANDATE: Ran a deceptively-good race when second against similar downstate. He rated off a very slow pace and showed late interest, and he’ll likely get a more favorable race shape.
The Great Dansky
#6 THE GREAT DANSKY: Drops back into the claiming ranks after finding starter allowance foes just a bit too tough. He wasn’t helped by a rough trip, though, and a repeat of the two-back effort would make him formidable; #2 VICTORY BOULEVARD: Ran into Art Collector in an optional claimer at Churchill and finds a much softer spot here. The big question: Can he win somewhere other than Aqueduct?; #5 CRYPTOGRAPHER: Drops back in for a tag second off the bench and has won twice at this 6 1/2-furlong distance. He’s got more early speed than he showed last time and might sit a solid stalking trip.
Spicy Marg (MTO)
#10 RIVER TIBER: Is bred in the purple and likely got a lot out of his career debut. He’s a half to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit It A Bomb (among others) and would be tough to beat if he takes a step forward; #2 OUTADORE: Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Wesley Ward, who also saddles my top pick. He’s by promising sire Outwork and boasts several strong turf drills from his time in Florida; #1 MAD MADDY: Tries turf after two seconds in as many starts on dirt. She’s bred to like it, but she may need to pick up her feet early to avoid being shuffled back along the fence.
Logic N Reason
#3 LOGIC N REASON: May present some value second off the bench for the red-hot Christophe Clement barn. She had significant trouble in her 2020 debut last month at Belmont and is a major contender if she can get a cleaner trip second off the bench; #1 JAZZIQUE: Hits me as the stronger of the two Chad Brown trainees. Her return to the races downstate was fine, and her lone prior start over the turf course saw her make up a lot of ground and graduate at first asking over a solid group; #11 COST BENEFIT: Is the other Chad Brown runner and runs here after winning a photo in her unveiling. However, that day’s runner-up disappointed as a favorite here earlier in the meet, and she got a pretty easy trip on a moderate early pace that day.
Stage Left (MTO)
#8 FAST GETAWAY: Came back running with an easy win in a turf sprint at Belmont. He’s got plenty of tactical speed, but he doesn’t need the lead to run well, which opens up options for regular rider Jose Ortiz; #9 CRYOGENIC: Is a hard-trying 5-year-old with a strong late kick that comes in off a win against Florida-breds at Gulfstream Park. These may be steeper waters, but there’s also a lot of speed to set up for the race shape he wants; #6 MORNING BREEZ: Hasn’t run a bad one since being claimed here last summer by Bob Klesaris. He was third against similar downstate and could sit just off the early pace in this spot.
#6 BASQUIAT: Was a distant fourth last time out, but that was in a stakes-level allowance race. Tap It to Win was a runaway winner, and third-place finisher Country Grammer came back to win the Grade 3 Peter Pan. This seems like a friendlier spot; #7 SUMMER KID: Graduated easily last time out in the Sunshine State and tries winners for the first time. It’s also his first venture around two turns, but given that he’s by a Belmont winner and out of a dam by another Belmont winner, this route doesn’t concern me; #4 AMANI’S EAGLE: Capitalized on a front-running trip to score going slightly longer at Churchill. His two local works are solid, and I think he’s got a chance at what figures to be a nice price.
#2 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Returned with a bang last month to crush an overmatched group of allowance foes and enjoyed a strong summer here a season ago. I think he’s better now than he was then, and if he lives up to his potential, he’ll be a handful; #6 HALLADAY: Certainly looks like the main speed and shipped north after winning three of four starts over the winter in Florida. He looks like the one they’ll have to catch going into the far turn; #3 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Won the infamous race run at the wrong distance here two summers ago (it’s our job to never forget that happened), and has since developed into a very nice horse. He was third after setting the pace in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy, and this barn has hit with five of its last 11 runners in stakes races on the lawn.
Striking Speed (MTO)
#8 ECONOMIC POLICY: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a flop at Tampa in his first start off a layoff. He may have needed that race, and a return to his debut form in this softer spot would put him right there; #3 DREAMONMEBABY: Was claimed by Danny Gargan last time out, and Gargan immediately puts him on turf. He’s bred to love the lawn, as his dam is by Street Cry, and I think he’ll take a considerable step forward at a price; #10 TURN OF EVENTS: Was caught a bit wide in his first start for a tag last time out at Belmont. This looks like an easier race, but he’s once again stuck in an unfavorable post and may lose ground going into the first turn.