Churchill Downs

Horse Racing Needed Golden Tempo. Now What?

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Many years ago, my first bosses in turf writing, Joe and Sean Clancy, advised us Saratoga Special interns, “root for the story.” It’s a mantra that’s been in my head since Saturday afternoon, when Golden Tempo shot from last to first to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

In this case, the story pretty much writes itself. Golden Tempo is trained by Cherie DeVaux, making her the first female conditioner to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner. Jose Ortiz, wearing the famous black and red silks of Phipps Stable, was the winning jockey, and his winning move outkicked that of brother Irad and the highly-regarded Renegade (who nearly overcame a troubled trip from the rail draw).

For various reasons, horse racing Twitter erupted with a rare sentiment: Positivity. It wasn’t just Golden Tempo backers who were thrilled at the outcome. Fans of the sport got to witness something special, and even losing bettors (self included) couldn’t be upset seeing DeVaux celebrate with her family and friends as she worked her way to the Derby winner’s circle. That, in turn, led to something even more rare: I saw losing handicappers hat-tipping, with regularity, in the direction of the sharp bettors who endorsed a victor that paid $48.24 for a $2 win wager.

Even Mike Repole, the owner of the hard-luck runner-up, couldn’t be too upset. In a video put online by Sean Collins of Blood-Horse, he can be seen bear-hugging Irad Ortiz, Jr., and telling him, among other things, “that’s why you’re the best rider in the country.” Repole’s shtick can be hard to deal with sometimes, but in that moment, he felt…different. He didn’t feel like an outspoken “commissioner” butting heads with others. He felt like someone who, even in defeat, had been moved by what he saw.

Being a horse racing fan tends to be a lonely experience, and for good reason. As a pari-mutuel bettor, you’re putting your money into the pools against wagers from everyone else looking at the race. Tempers can run hot, especially on big days. Against all odds, when it came to the biggest race on the calendar, that didn’t happen. Instead of being something for people to scream at each other about, the Kentucky Derby served as a reminder of why most of us got into the game.

Let me be clear: Saturday at Churchill Downs wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. Two races before the Derby, Japanese invader T O Ellis was greater than 10-1 as the field went into the gate for the Churchill Downs. Mid-race, he dropped all the way down to 5-1, and sure enough, the money proved smart. This was a reflection of a growing problem at racetracks across the country, one explained to the masses in a terrific article written by Yahoo’s Dan Wolken.

(Side note: I’ve been around the racing game long enough to say, with some confidence, that if some racing publications had written that piece, there would be significant repercussions for it. As I’m fond of saying, in horse racing, the problem is never the problem, it’s people talking about the problem.)

Horse racing has its issues, and they’ve been growing impossible to ignore. Horse racing Twitter, never an easy audience to fully satisfy in the best of times, has grown restless, and there are valid points to be made. We don’t breed as many horses, the ones we do breed don’t run as much, horse racing isn’t the only gambling game in town anymore, and activity by CAW groups is, for the most part, being met with a collective shrug from industry decision-makers (some of whom are actively benefiting from said activity on a race-by-race basis). Because of this, the day-to-day product has, at times, suffered, and from an outsider’s perspective, it sure doesn’t seem like much is being done to fix issues affecting every aspect of the industry.

Despite all this, though, there we all were Saturday afternoon, watching Cherie DeVaux be engulfed by family and friends after Golden Tempo completed his circling of the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. I said it at the time and I still mean it: I don’t think horse racing Twitter was ever more positive than after that race. It was a beautiful thing to witness, and it’s a reminder of both what we’re capable of as people and what this game is capable of bringing out of us.

The question is, how do we take what we saw Saturday and use it for the benefit of the industry? At a time where the sport has seemed to actively seek out negative momentum, there’s potential for forward movement. Let’s capitalize on it. Let’s remember what this game can do and how capable we are of being decent to one another.

Golden Tempo winning the roses didn’t fix everything. Acting like it did is naive, at best. However, to paraphrase a quote from one of my fictional spirit animals, Toby Zeigler from “The West Wing,” in a battle between our game’s demons and our better angels, for the first time in a long while, I think we just might have ourselves a fair fight.

You know, provided we don’t blow it.

2026 Kentucky Derby Selections and Spot Plays

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s Kentucky Derby Day, and I’ve got free Kentucky Derby selections and spot plays for Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs.

Yes, the Derby is its own beast, but with 13 other races on tap, there are plenty of opportunities to take stands and cash tickets. That’s what we’ll attempt to do here, and with so much to go through, I won’t waste any more of your time. Let’s get to it!

Race #2: #8 Taptastic (3-1 ML)

He won’t be much of a price, but I like this Steve Asmussen trainee quite a bit. After breaking his maiden in the mud at Oaklawn, he got thrown into the deep end in the Arkansas Derby and didn’t disgrace himself. He was third that day (behind Renegade and Silent Tactic), and it wouldn’t have been too shocking to see him show up in a race like the Pat Day Mile (more on that one later).

Instead, he shows up in a first-level allowance, where he’ll be able to run with Lasix again. He also gets the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., which is a significant move up, and his local works have been just fine. I think he’s very much the one to beat, and while I think we’re more likely to get 3/2 than his 3-1 morning line, he hits me as a single in any of your early multi-race exotics wagers.

Race #6 (Knicks Go): #9 Scotland (20-1 ML)

This was a price I profiled in my recent piece for ABR, and this race revolves around #2 Dragoon Guard. On one hand, it feels like he’s the main speed, and he’s run speed figures in the past that would put him on top fairly easily. On the other, he’s won just one of his last seven starts, lost to several of these runners in those races, and hits me as difficult to trust.

For that reason, I’ll take a shot with Scotland, who likely needed his 2026 debut after a four-month layoff. He ran several sharp races a season ago, when he earned some big checks (including a fairly-close second to Book ‘em Danno in the Forego at Saratoga). He’s shown he’s got the ability to win a race like this; the question is, can he get back to that mid-2025 form?

It’s not a small question to answer, for sure. If he’s just not that kind of horse anymore, that’ll be apparent. However, I’d much rather take that kind of flyer than back a short pice that’s difficult to trust. Here’s hoping this Bill Mott trainee is ready to go second off the bench.

Race #8 (G2 Pat Day Mile): #1 Englishman (3-1 ML)

If you watched this week’s “Drank’n Champagne,” this is no secret (and if you haven’t watched it yet, it’s right there below the introduction!). I think the Pat Day Mile may have the best 3-year-old male on the grounds, and that includes the runners set to go postward in Saturday’s main event.

Englishman was a runaway winner of his debut in September over this Churchill surface. Something clearly went wrong, because we didn’t see him in the afternoon for six months. He came back at Fair Grounds and couldn’t have been much more impressive, coasting home to win by a New Orleans city block and affirming his potential.

His connections had every right to try to rush him to a Kentucky Derby prep. They didn’t do that. This race has been the goal all along, and he’s been working lights-out ahead of this event. I know Bob Baffert trainee #6 Crude Velocity has potential, but I think Englishman is a freak in the making. If he’s anywhere close to the 3-1 morning line price, I’ll be thrilled.

Race #9 (G1 American Turf): #4 Stark Contrast (4-1 ML)

I give the connections of Stark Contrast credit. A few years ago, this owner/trainer tandem had Endlessly, a promising turf/synthetic runner who had never run on dirt. They ran him in the Kentucky Derby, and he hasn’t won since. This year, Stark Contrast had enough points to make the field, but was re-routed here, and while the odds board says it’s a wide-open event, he’s a “lone A” for me.

Simply put, Stark Contrast just hasn’t done much wrong. He’s 3-for-4 on turf, with his lone loss being a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf behind much-the-best winner Gstaad. Last time out, he was second to a nice horse again in the Jeff Ruby, where he made a middle move and got outkicked by Fulleffort.

This is absolutely what he wants to do, and the slight cutback in distance should be welcome news. Furthermore, the two others that hit me as interesting, #12 Remember Mamba and #14 Final Score, drew terrible, far-outside posts. Stark Contrast has a lot to like here, and I think the morning line price would represent a significant overlay.

Race #12 (G1 Kentucky Derby): #9 The Puma (10-1 ML) and #14 Potente (20-1 ML)

We may not get the 10-1 morning line price on The Puma, but even if he’s in the neighborhood of 7-1, I don’t think that’s a bad bet. He’s gotten significantly better with distance and experience, and he may still present some value compared to #6 Commandment (who nosed him in the Florida Derby) and #18 Further Ado (who he beat in the Tampa Bay Derby). His pedigree says 10 furlongs is well within his scope, and I think he’s ready to fire a big shot.

Potente, meanwhile, hasn’t run huge figures in California, but this Bob Baffert trainee hits me as live. It feels like Baffert was trying to figure something out in the Santa Anita Derby, where Potente dueled for the lead through solid fractions before fading to second. I think his preferred trip is of the “stalk and pounce” variety, and he should get several targets to run at early. His recent five-furlong drill at Churchill was fantastic, and when a Baffert horse works like that, it’s often a clue the Hall of Famer has one ready to go.

2026 Kentucky Oaks Day Selections and Spot Plays

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is Oaks Day at Churchill Downs, and I come bearing free Kentucky Oaks selections and spot plays.

To be honest, I miss doing this more often, and I’m excited about racing going back to Saratoga in five weeks so I can produce the content so many people know me for/expect out of me. Alas, between my full-time job, a bunch of stuff happening in my personal life that keeps me busy, and the usual things that pop up for everybody from time to time, it’s been a while.

Let’s see if we can pick a few winners and make a few bucks on Kentucky Oaks day. Here are the horses my day will go through…

Race #2: #3 Chopsticks (9/2 ML)

I’ll start off by saying that I highly, highly doubt we’ll get the morning line price on this returning 3-year-old filly. Brad Cox trains, Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride, and she’s been working very, very well ahead of her first start since October. However, I think she’s very much the horse to beat in the second race of the program, and I’d still bet this horse at the 3-1 price I think she’ll go off at.

Chopsticks started off her career in impressive fashion. She won at first asking here at Churchill Downs, and she then added the Debutante at Ellis Park. She then tried Grade 1 company in the Frizette, but she didn’t fire, at all, whatsoever, and it’s clear something went wrong because we haven’t seen her since.

A steady string of workouts in Florida has me optimistic, and the rider switch to Ortiz is a big one. She does face older company here, which is the one thing I’m not crazy about, but it doesn’t seem like a terribly strong field for the level. 3-1 morning line favorite Five a Side ran one big race two back at Turfway, but hasn’t replicated that form on dirt, and many other opponents have been at this level for quite a while.

Race #7 (Unbridled Sidney): #5 Queen Maxima (7/2 ML) and #4 Creed’s Gold (20-1 ML)

One of the strongest opinions I have this week isn’t a play, but a “play against,” and that’s #6 Shisospicy. Perhaps she’s the same horse she was last year, but I have some doubts. She’s been away six months, comes back for a barn that’s cooled off significantly from a red-hot 2025 campaign, and may be compromised by several other speed horses directly to her outside. If she beats me, I’ll tip my cap and move on, but this hits me as an ideal spot to take a swing.

I much prefer Queen Maxima, whose race last time out was over before it started. She was an impressive winner of this race last year, so we know her form travels to Churchill Downs, and her best is absolutely good enough to make it two scores in a row in this event.

I’m also going to use Creed’s Gold, one of four horses I profiled in a piece for ABR earlier this week. She’s run well twice this year, has shipped well to a variety of tracks, and she should get a pace to run at beneath new jockey Flavien Prat.

Race #11 (La Troienne): #9 Fully Subscribed (7/2 ML)

My best bet of the entire Kentucky Oaks card is this Chad Brown trainee, who’s been working up a storm in Florida. Fully Subscribed won back-to-back graded stakes races at Aqueduct by open lengths late last year before going to the sidelines, and she hits me as a significant candidate to improve from age three to age four.

Fully Subscribed hasn’t run a bad one to this point in her career, and with the work tab what it is, I don’t think she does that for the first time on Friday. Furthermore, for a Grade 1, this race just doesn’t appear very strong. If Fully Subscribed is ready to run (and I think she is), I think she’s strictly the one to beat.

Race #13 (Kentucky Oaks): #11 Percy’s Bar (6-1 ML) and #9 Always a Runner (10-1 ML)

We’ll finish things up with the Kentucky Oaks, and I’ll be riding with a pair of “A horses.” I’ve liked Percy’s Bar ever since she won the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland. From where I sit, #2 Zany ran her race that day, and Percy’s Bar blew her off her feet. Furthermore, she came out of that race with an outstanding workout at Keeneland, so I’m not anticipating a “bounce” or any sort of regression. It feels like she’s improved considerably from age two to age three, and even though she may not be favored, I think she’s the horse to beat.

The other horse that intrigues me is another price I shouted out on ABR. Always a Runner has only run twice, but the more I look, the more I like her. She didn’t have much pace to run at last time in the Grade 3 Gazelle, but she came and got a loose-on-the-lead winner. This spot will almost certainly have significantly more pace signed on, and that, combined with her potential to improve in just her third lifetime start, makes her dangerous.

2025 Kentucky Derby Analysis Now Available (LOTS OF FREE CONTENT!)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The calendar has turned to May, and with that comes two of the most exciting days in horse racing. The Kentucky Oaks is on Friday, the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, and I’m using this page as a one-stop shop for all of my content.

BETTING STRATEGIES AND SPOT PLAYS

My day job is for an affiliate marketing company called Raketech. As part of that, I’ve put together betting strategies on $50 budgets for those two races, plus a handful of spot plays throughout each undercard.

You can check those out on Winners and Whiners here, and supporting that avenue supports me as I try to create content you all will enjoy/take something from. In addition, you can use the promo code CHAMP20 for 20% off any individual item.

Furthermore, earlier this week, I sat down with my friend Detroit Lenny, who’s done an incredible job with our video production. We did a “beginner’s guide to the Derby” of sorts, and you can check that out here.

DRANK’N CHAMPAGNE PREVIEWS DERBY WEEK

My weekly podcast on On the Wrong Lead fulfills an annual tradition. Here, Josh Rodriguez and I go through Friday and Saturday at Churchill and offer our best bets, live longshots, and bold predictions for each day of racing. We’re aligned on a big one for Friday, and that’s one you won’t want to miss!

24 HOURS OF CONTENT???

Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets fame is a friend of mine, and he’s running a 24-hour handicapping stream beginning at 12 pm Eastern on Friday to support the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. This is a different iteration of the idea Trust The Prophets did for a Breeders’ Cup, where they also had a rotating cast of handicappers and Twitter personalities go through the night.

I’m planning to stop by in the Pacific time zone’s evening hours, which’ll likely be when the East Coast folks are headed to bed. Whoever winds up getting on this, though, it’s going to be a blast. You can check it out below or on the NYRA Bets YouTube channel.

RADIO IN UPSTATE NEW YORK

Finally, I’ll also be on the radio airwaves in a few New York markets. Those in Saratoga may know I do some work with my friends Tom Goslowski and Jeff Levack, and my hit will air during their show on FOX Sports 980 Thursday.

In addition, I’ll hop on ESPN Radio Ithaca Friday with my good friend/wedding groomsman who still needs to get his tux handled, Nick Karski. That’ll air during his afternoon drive show and be archived on the station’s website (I’ll update these with archive links if/when I have them!).

Medina Spirit, the Kentucky Derby, and two important words

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

A long time ago, I composed a 50-point plan to improve horse racing’s future prospects. One of the most important ones was also probably the simplest one on the list. It was two words, and comprised a philosophy that racing had yet to embrace at that time.

“Optics matter.”

You know why I’m writing this column. It was announced Sunday morning that Medina Spirit, the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby, tested positive for a banned substance. We’re now playing the waiting game as a split sample gets tested. If that comes back positive as well, we’ll see just the second medication-based disqualification in Derby history.

When trainer Bob Baffert was reached for comment on the situation, he denied giving Medina Spirit the illegal substance.

“I don’t know what is going on in racing right now but there is something not right,” he said to reporters Sunday. “I don’t feel embarrassed, I feel like I was wronged.”

This is consistent with his responses to situations involving top-tier horses such as Justify, Gamine, and Charlatan, among others, all of whom tested positive and have largely had those situations swept under the rug. In the latter two cases, the Arkansas Racing Commission recently overturned rulings made by its own stewards and reinstated victories for those two horses. Justify, meanwhile, tested positive for scopolamine following the 2018 Santa Anita Derby, but was not disqualified, either immediately after the test results came in or after lengthy legal proceedings stemming from a lawsuit filed by Bolt d’Oro’s owner/trainer, Mick Ruis.

I’m not a vet. If you’re looking for a detailed analysis of the substance Medina Spirit tested positive for, you’re going to need to look elsewhere. What I am is a lifelong racing fan, a handicapper since I was in middle school (for better or for worse), and someone with a career in marketing and communications that can provide some insight into how this will go over with the people racing needs in order to survive.

Spoiler alert: It’s not going over well.

Many in racing want the sport to be mainstream, as it was many years ago. As Alicia Hughes, a friend of mine and one of the best writers in the game, continually points out, this means an acceptance of criticism and coverage that is good, bad, and indifferent. Right now, what we have are a bunch of people who are very angry, for legitimate reasons.

Those who bet Mandaloun, who ran his eyeballs out to be second and tested clean, feel robbed. Those who took to social media to complain after the Derby, either because they didn’t use a 12-1 Bob Baffert trainee in a race he’d won six times before last weekend or because they genuinely felt something was afoot, have all the ammo they need to say the game is crooked (though cries of “I’M NEVER BETTING AGAIN” from those who shove the GDP of a developing nation through the windows or ADW’s will always come across as hollow and/or ego-driven).

How does any of this help racing draw the new fans it desperately needs? How has racing’s continued inability to effectively police itself in any way, shape, or form helped ensure a place for itself moving forward? And when will people who have the ability to make decisions that impact the sport moving forward realize trainers constantly complaining about being wronged are taking lessons from the Taylor Swift School of Spin, where nothing bad is ever their fault?

The answers: It doesn’t, it doesn’t, and they won’t, at least not without significant prompting to do so.

It took the FBI moving in for Jorge Navarro and Jason Servis to be run off the racetrack. In Navarro’s case, he had a rap sheet as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo’s arm but continually received mere slaps on the wrist as he took bottom-level claimers and turned them into stakes winners. All the while, bettors had an idea of what was going on, bet money accordingly, and watched as racing took no significant action despite enough smoke to indicate a giant wildfire.

At a time when perception is everything, it seems racing is deliberately choosing not to be proactive. In combating the issue of race-day medication, the sport decided to phase out Lasix, a substance designed to stop horses from bleeding. While Lasix may be A problem, the Medina Spirit situation shows it was not THE problem. Add in that horses may need Lasix to run at the sport’s highest level due to the way horses are bred in 2021, and that several of those top-tier equine athletes have bled during races, and anyone who’s watching closely knows significantly more work is needed in order to ensure any consistency and integrity moving forward.

If Medina Spirit’s split sample comes back negative, I hope it’s a stimulus for the complete and total rebuild of post-race testing from coast to coast. I don’t care what it costs, nor what the hurdles are in instituting a nationwide system where all results can be trusted. If we can’t get this right when the entire world is watching, who’s to say we’re getting this right when it isn’t?

If Medina Spirit’s split sample comes back positive, I hope it’s a stimulus for a new era of stricter sanctions for trainers who cheat. Horses run for millions of dollars, and paltry fines that amount to change “supertrainers” might find between their couch cushions means the usual punishment doesn’t come close to fitting the crime. Meaningful fines and suspensions, ones that shut the door for assistants to step in as program trainers and allow a “business as usual” mentality, are long past due.

Optics matter. And if for horse racing doesn’t apply those two words to this situation on a national level, it casts doubt on if the sport ever will in a meaningful way.