SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/21/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $865

My favorite story about the late Marylou Whitney involves Birdstone’s upset of Triple Crown hopeful Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes. She was the winning owner of a horse that just won one of racing’s most prestigious races. Her first instinct, though, was not to celebrate, but to apologize to the crowd that came to see a coronation and largely went home disappointed.

You don’t need to be a follower of racing’s social scene (and trust me, I’m not) to understand and appreciate what Marylou Whitney brought to Saratoga. In addition to being a link to the aristocrats of the mid-20th century that congregated in the Saratoga clubhouse each summer, she facilitated a gigantic volume of service to the sport and those around it while asking for nothing in return.

By any measure, Marylou Whitney lived a full life. She was 93 years old when she passed away Friday, just a few weeks away from her induction into racing’s Hall of Fame as a “Pillar of the Turf.” If there’s one thing that’s certain, it’s this: Saratoga is a lesser place without her in it.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: After many chances, Andretta graduated out of the maiden ranks in the third race and spoiled Pick Four and double tickets. We dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll concentrate on the seventh race, where I like a pair of debuting runners. I’ll key #5 MERITATEN and #10 SEQUIN on top of $3 exactas that include those two, #1 FLY SO PRETTY, #7 MOM’S PASS, and #8 QUEEN OF SHADES underneath. Additionally, as a value play, I’ll use them to finish off $3 doubles that start with #6 MAMMA DEE (my longshot of the day) in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – –

BEST BET: Guarana, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Mamma Dee, Race 6

R1

Markham
Renown
Whitman’s Poetry

#1 MARKHAN: Has won three in a row and is undefeated since coming to North America. He seems to be in career form right now, and he looms large as the one to beat in the first steeplechase of the meet; #4 RENOWN: Tossed his rider last time out, but has a solid body of work. Prior to becoming a solid steeplechase horse, he was stakes-placed on the flat and ran third in last year’s John’s Call; #7 WHITMAN’S POETRY: Always seems to fire, but is winless in his last eight starts. He can’t be ignored underneath, but he’s tough to trust on top.

R2

Business Cycle
Brush Country
Heyitsnricopalazo

#6 BUSINESS CYCLE: Has misfired in both of his 2019 starts and takes a gigantic drop in class for this event. There’s a chance he peaked last year, but he did show some late interest last time and may not have to run to his 2018 form to win; #3 BRUSH COUNTRY: Was competitive when third against $40,000 claimers last time out at Churchill. In a race full of class-droppers, he seems fairly logical, especially given that his last two races have both come at this distance; #7 HEYITSNRICOPALAZO: Makes his second start off the layoff here (almost certainly to the delight of track announcer Larry Collmus) and showed some speed last time out. This barn is 2-for-2 so far this meet, and a step forward would make him a candidate to hit the board at a price.

R3

Borough Boy (MTO)
Value Engineering
Bad Boy

#9 VALUE ENGINEERING: Is one of several dropping in for a tag for this barn Sunday, and like most of the others, he looks tough. He’s been very competitive against straight maidens, and several of his prior opponents have come back to win; #8 BAD BOY: Drops back in for a tag and was competitive against similar-quality foes this past winter at Gulfstream. The return to a two-turn route should suit him; #5 CRYPTO GOLD: Merits a look underneath at double-digit odds. He crossed the wire first two back before being DQ’d and should be moving in the right direction late.

R4

Guarana
Point of Honor
Boxwood

#1 GUARANA: Certainly seems like the best horse in a below-average group of 3-year-old fillies, and she’s strictly the one to beat in the historic Coaching Club American Oaks. She’s never been two turns, but with her pedigree, such a trip shouldn’t be a problem; #5 POINT OF HONOR: Has won three of four starts and rallied to take a Grade 2 last time out at Pimlico. She may not get as much pace to run at here, but if nothing else, the distance won’t beat her; #3 BOXWOOD: May very well be the lone speed if Guarana’s rider opts to sit back. She was second in a solid optional claimer last time out and could hold on for a piece of it with the right trip.

R5

Per Capita
Majority Rules
Scars Are Cool

#2 PER CAPITA: Tops a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown, who may very well sweep the early Pick Four. He was third in a very fast maiden race last month at Belmont and has the pedigree necessary for this two-turn trip; #6 MAJORITY RULES: Was a close-up second in his debut going a mile back in May. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but he boasts a few strong local works and could improve at second asking; #4 SCARS ARE COOL: Tries two turns for the first time after running a close-up third at Churchill Downs. The pedigree says he may want turf, but this barn’s quietly had an excellent year and cannot be ignored.

R6

Mamma Dee
Chestnut Street
Art Buff

#6 MAMMA DEE: Was second against similar company at Belmont and comes back to two turns, a configuration she ran very well at this past winter at Gulfstream. Turf closers have run with aplomb so far this meet, and she figures to get a pace to run at; #1 CHESTNUT STREET: Has not run in nearly 11 months and drops in for a tag for the first time. She showed some talent here a season ago, but neither of those are strong signs for a 5-year-old mare that will likely be favored, so I’ll try to beat her; #9 ART BUFF: Comes back to turf, and while her lone prior turf start was a disaster, there’s reason to think she’ll improve. Her dam was a stakes-winner on the lawn, she boasts a strong 310 turf Tomlinson figure, and this barn’s horses tend to need some time to get going.

R7

Sequin
Meritaten
Fly So Pretty

#10 SEQUIN: Fetched $500,000 at auction, and the pedigree says she’s a runner. Early returns on young sire Bayern are promising, and her dam is a half-sister to both Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and Grade 1-placed filly Mother Mother; #5 MERITATEN: Debuts for a barn that can have first-time starters ready to roll. Her dam is a full sister to multiple Group 1 winner The Gurkha, and she was also Grade 3-placed in Ireland; #1 FLY SO PRETTY: Was third in her debut despite a very wide trip and draws more favorably here. Javier Castellano hops aboard, and the Mark Casse barn merits respect.

R8

Basin
Three Technique
Yankee Empire

#6 BASIN: Was beaten a nose by By Your Side, who went on to roll in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier in the meet. That flattering result, plus the potential for improvement at second asking, make this one the one to beat; #2 THREE TECHNIQUE: Was a good second in his debut, and the colt owned by Hall of Fame football coach Bill Parcells is another that could take a step up. The pedigree screams “turf router,” but this barn has done well with 2-year-olds; #3 YANKEE EMPIRE: Ran well when chasing my second selection in his unveiling, and did so for a barn whose firsters aren’t always fully-cranked. The recent bullet workout looks very attractive, and I think he’s a must-use in the exotics.

R9

Bernin’ Thru Gold
Hoboe
Morrison

#10 HOBOE: Ran well here twice a season ago and has the right running style for how the turf is playing. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he likes two turns and will be rolling late; #7 MORRISON: Is another with solid local experience, as he won an optional claimer here last year before running a competitive fourth in the West Point. He likely needed his last start off of a long layoff, and if you’re looking for a price to light your fire, this one may be it; #1 VARIANT PERCEPTION: Lost a photo last time out at Monmouth, but did so to a next-out winner after coming home very quickly. If he brings that form north, he’s definitely a contender for powerhouse connections.

R10

Restoring Hope
Borracho
Majestic Affair

#2 RESTORING HOPE: Wired a solid field of optional claimers in his 2019 debut at Gulfstream back in March and returns here. This distance should hit him right between the eyes; let’s just hope his journey here doesn’t spark as much outrage as his last one in New York did; #8 BORRACHO: Rallied to finish third in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, and it’s a bit surprising to see him turn up here rather than in a stakes race. The faster they go early, the better his chances are; #9 MAJESTIC AFFAIR: Steps up in class off a win for Robertino Diodoro, but loves this seven-furlong trip and gets Jose Ortiz. The outside post and a perfect stalking trip could make him a contender.

R11

Significant Form
Morticia
Broadway Run

#4 SIGNIFICANT FORM: Overcame a slow pace to win her return to the races in the Grade 3 Intercontinental last time out. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs is a question mark, but she showed some maturity in her 2019 debut, and I think she can handle it; #5 MORTICIA: Is the other logical top choice in here and always seems to fire. She’s hit the board in 19 of 22 career starts, won nine times, and has a win over this turf course; #2 BROADWAY RUN: Was a close-up fourth behind Significant Form last time out, but seven furlongs may have been a tad long for her. She won a stakes race at this route a season ago and could relish the shorter trip.

R12

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Pipes
Bad Guy

#10 PIPES: Gets my top pick in what I consider the toughest race of the meet to handicap to this point. I can’t feel too strongly about anything here, but he checked hard last time out and lost all chance, so if nothing else, this is a value play for me; #11 BAD GUY: Has tried two turns on turf once in the last year, and that race was his lone win in that time span. The outside post is an obstacle, but he should be running well late; #8 INTERNET OF THINGS: Tries turf for the first time and may not have to be much to pick up a check. Chad Brown’s numbers with first-time turfers are strong (shocker), and he’s shown some versatility in the past.

R13

Wow Cat
She’s a Julie
Golden Award

#5 WOW CAT: Gets a tepid top selection in a very strong renewal of the Grade 3 Shuvee. I don’t like the layoff, but there’s a lot of early speed signed on (including her stablemate), and that could set the table for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up; #1 SHE’S A JULIE: Has developed into a very good 4-year-old for Steve Asmussen and won a Grade 1 two back at Churchill. She was second in last year’s Alabama, so we know she likes the track, and she should have enough speed to use the rail to her advantage; #3 GOLDEN AWARD: Has a resume that looks far better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Doubledogdare. She was a good second last time out, when she was beaten a nose by a next-out winner at this level, and the recent bullet workout is attractive.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/22/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $968

You’ll notice a slight change to my analysis, as I’ve officially begun putting numbers next to the names of horses, just for the sake of clarification. This was a suggestion from a Twitter follower of mine, and I’m all for doing things that make my content easier to digest.

Periodic reminder: If you’ve got a suggestion, question, or comment, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. I enjoy hearing from people who read my stuff, and you may even see a response to it in this bankroll blurb!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: In one of a few “backwards exactas” in the pick box, Tee Up nosed Our Girl Abby in the fifth, which ruined our lone remaining double ticket following the scratch of Shape Shifter. We dropped $10.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Given the rain that’s in the forecast, it’s worth a reminder that all plays in this section assume turf races stay there. With that in mind, I’ll dive into the early Pick Five and play the following $0.50 ticket that begins in the opener: 2 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,6 with 4 with 2,3,5,6,8. Singles TIED UP and ADULATION will likely be heavy favorites, but hopefully we can get a price or two home around them to make this pay a bit.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Tied Up, Race 1
Longshot: Stealth, Race 5

R1

Tied Up
Pure Praise
Northernstreetgal

#2 TIED UP: Has been off since an easy score against similar competition at Keeneland. A repeat of that effort would make her incredibly difficult to beat, and it’s tough to see anyone here challenging her early on; #7 PURE PRAISE: Rated well behind a slow pace last time out in her first start for Jeremiah Englehart. Her lone win came over a sloppy track, so she could benefit from any rain that hits the area; #6 NORTHERNSTREETGAL: Drops in class, comes back to the dirt, and has run her best races over wet tracks. She could hit the board at a bit of a price.

R2

Casse entry
Two Dozen Roses
Mott entry

CASSE ENTRY: #1A CHOCOLATE KISSES seems better meant than #1 TOY MOON, but either can win. The former is a half to top-notch turf horse Synchrony, and her dam won stakes races on both turf and dirt; #4 TWO DOZEN ROSES: Has a series of turf works, and her second dam threw Beholder, Into Mischief, and Mendelssohn. The five-furlong drills indicate she may want today’s distance; MOTT ENTRY: #2B GLAZE is bred to love this distance and could improve off of her debut, while main-track-only entrant #2 ROTATE has a chance if this is rained off the turf.

R3

No Need to Appeal (MTO)
La Moneda
Complicit

#1 LA MONEDA: Has turned into a sharp turf horse and won two in a row downstate in impressive fashion. Javier Castellano regains the mount, and anything close to her last-out effort would make her formidable; #2 COMPLICIT: Has improved with every start and followed up her two-back maiden score with a win last month at Belmont. She overcame a very slow pace in the most recent race, and this barn’s certainly formidable with turf routers; #6 DOLCE LILI: Looks much better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Valley View, which was followed by a six-month layoff. She may benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO NEED TO APPEAL, RILEY’S CHOICE, LA MONEDA.

R4

Adulation
Cavallotto
Benefactor

#4 ADULATION: Drops in for a tag for one of the most well-known owners in Saratoga. The last two races weren’t great, but he’s been competitive against much better in the past and Javier Castellano hops aboard; #1 CAVALLOTTO: Prevailed against weaker company last time out at Belmont Park and may be going in the right direction. He’s 2 for 3 in dirt sprints, and he may be a bit of a price; #2 BENEFACTOR: Is another dropping way down in class, and he’s been gelded since trailing a much better group. He’s got plenty of early speed, and a repeat of his effort three back would likely get him a piece of this.

R5

Domain
Point to Remember
Stealth

#5 DOMAIN: Has finished second in a pair of swiftly-run races at Belmont Park and has a pedigree that says two turns should not be a problem. His 85 Beyer Speed Figure from the most recent race is the top last-out number in the field; #8 POINT TO REMEMBER: Is bred up and down for distance and should improve in his third start of the season. He may be a bit more forwardly-placed in this spot; #3 STEALTH: Completely missed the break in his debut and has earned two bullets for workouts since then. Ian Wilkes charges tend to move forward with experience, and this one could present real value in exotics.

R6

Ventry Bay
Fuel the Bern
Bam Bam Blu

#3 VENTRY BAY: Loves Saratoga and exits a strong race for the level where the winner and second-place finisher both won at next asking. Wesley Ward’s on a bit of a cold streak in New York, but this one has back form that more than fits; #8 FUEL THE BERN: Has found his form of late and cuts back in distance for the strong Danny Gargan barn. It helps that he doesn’t need the lead to run well, and he could get first run turning for home; #5 BAM BAM BLU: Romped in the slop at Monmouth last time out and tries turf here. His pedigree says he could like turf, and he certainly merits respect if this race gets moved to the main track. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAM BAM BLU, CHANGE OF VENUE, WIN WITH PRIDE.

R7

Golden Award
Big Birthday
Communal

#5 GOLDEN AWARD: Stepped forward in her second start, when she held on for second despite setting a very fast pace. She’s worked well since then, and she could benefit from the cutback in distance; #9 BIG BIRTHDAY: Ran well in her first start off the bench, finishing third in a sprint at Belmont Park. She could step forward in her second start back, and the outside draw could allow her to work out a trip; #4 COMMUNAL: Was second in a race that features many runners that also show up in this spot. This barn’s horses tend to need a race to get going, so it’s a good sign that she was ready right off the bat.

R8

Critique (MTO)
Dancing Breeze
Stainless

#5 DANCING BREEZE: Ran third behind La Moneda last time out in her first start since November. She was a good second in a $150,000 stakes race before going to the sidelines, and a return to that form would make her tough; #2 STAINLESS: Is Grade 3-placed and could benefit from what seems like a lot of early speed. This barn does well with horses coming off of long layoffs, and she may be going best of all late; #4 QUEEN MUM: Has never finished worse than third in four starts to date. She tries turf for the first time, and her 353 turf Tomlinson number says she could love it. DIRT SELECTIONS: CRITIQUE, STAINLESS, QUEEN MUM.

R9

Monomoy Girl
Midnight Bisou
Gio Game

#4 MONOMOY GIRL: Seems like the lone frontrunner in a small field, which is almost always a tough combination to beat. She seems to be getting better as she goes along, which is a scary thought since she’s a neck away from being 8 for 8; #2 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Aired by six lengths in the Grade 2 Mother Goose, which doubled as her first start for trainer Steve Asmussen. It was good to see her win while close to the pace, but these waters are much deeper; #5 GIO GAME: Was third behind Monomoy Girl in the Grade 1 Acorn, an effort validated when the second-place finisher came right back to win the Indiana Oaks. Her lone misfire came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and she may be on the improve.

R10

Competitionofideas
Compression
East Moon

#9 COMPETITIONOFIDEAS: Just missed last time out in a fast race for the level. The outside post is a bit of an issue on the inner turf, but she’s shown enough talent to indicate she could overcome it; #2 COMPRESSION: Was third in that same race despite not having much running room turning for home. She could easily improve enough to win this race, although she’s found trouble twice in as many starts, which is a concern; #10 EAST MOON: Finished an OK second in her first start going long and tries turf, which her pedigree says she could take to. If this race gets rained off the turf, she figures to be the one to beat. DIRT SELECTIONS: EAST MOON, KIDORO, THAT’S SPEIGHTFUL.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/23/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $959

Give many talented jockeys a single multiple Grade 1 winner to ride, and most would be ecstatic. For Mike Smith, it’s another day at the office. He’s in town today to ride Coaching Club American Oaks favorite Abel Tasman, who comes in off of back-to-back Grade 1 wins. Currently, he’s also the regular rider of champions Arrogate and Songbird, as well as likely Allen Jerkens favorite American Anthem, Travers probable West Coast, and sleeping giant Unique Bella, among many others. Nice work if you can get it!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Someone knew Voodoo Song was sitting on a big race, judging by the odds plunge that one took in the last flash of the tote board. Unfortunately, I wasn’t that person. My early Pick Four was toast right away, and I dropped $21.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on my best bet of the day, which comes in the fifth race. #1 THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL may be a short price, but I’ll try to maximize my profit. I’ll put $15 to win on him and single him in $5 doubles that use #2 QUESTEQ, #5 THRICE, and #7 PRADO VISION in a sixth race that seems wide-open on paper.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Thebigfundamental, Race #5
Longshot: Rapid Red, Race #4

R1

Our Girl Abby
Kitty Kat Kate
You People

OUR GIRL ABBY: Tries turf for the first time and has a surprising foundation for such a young horse. With every horse trying two turns for the first time, that could be a big help, and her tactical speed is another plus; KITTY KAT KATE: Merits respect if she draws in off the AE list. Her effort two back was solid, and she’s got the pedigree to stretch out effectively; YOU PEOPLE: Is a first-time starter from a barn whose horses sometimes need a race to get going, but her dam was a Grade 3 winner going long on the turf, and the presence of Jose Ortiz is intriguing. DIRT SELECTIONS: OUR GIRL ABBY, IN THE MOOD, ORBOLUTION.

R2

Tiz Shea D
Scarf It Down
Chubby Master

TIZ SHEA D: Takes a big drop in class, and it would be surprising if this Grade 2 winner was not claimed. He comes back to the dirt, and even a repeat of his 2016 dirt races would make him very tough; SCARF IT DOWN: Makes his first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro following a win over lesser company at Churchill Downs. Seven furlongs is an unknown, but he could sit a dream trip just off the pace; CHUBBY MASTER: Took a step forward when second at this level downstate. He was a close second at this route last year and could rally for a piece of it at a price.

R3

Mr Classical
Weather Wiz
Uncle Mojo

MR CLASSICAL: Didn’t break well when backed heavily in his debut, but still rallied to finish third behind a stakes-quality runner in Emancipation (Orb’s little brother). He should love this two-turn route of ground and is the one to beat; WEATHER WIZ: Adds Lasix after finishing third in his Independence Day unveiling. His pedigree says he wants as much ground as possible, and improvement is logical at second asking; UNCLE MOJO: Re-rallied to finish second in his first start off a long layoff. He likely needed his debut back in January, and his July 8th bullet indicates he’s coming into this well.

R4

Rapid Red
Main Road
Phi Beta Express

RAPID RED: Gets my nod at a bit of a price in a wide-open starter allowance. He hasn’t run a bad race on dirt, the outside draw is a plus, and while he’s got tactical speed, he doesn’t need the lead in what figures to be a race with plenty of early zip; MAIN ROAD: Makes his first start for trainer Ron Moquett after a pair of sharp races at Churchill Downs. How he’ll take to the Spa is anyone’s guess, but his usual race from Churchill or Oaklawn would put him right there; PHI BETA EXPRESS: Took a big step forward in his local debut earlier this month, leading every step of the way and earning an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. Regression is possible given the departure from his previous form, but he can’t be ignored.

R5

Thebigfundamental
Securitiz
Royal Posse

THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL: Couldn’t have been much more impressive downstate, where he won two in a row by daylight. He tries two turns for the first time, but seems to be one of the few in this field that is going the right way from a form standpoint; SECURITIZ: Ran a big race first off the bench last month and is eligible to improve. He tends to run second a lot, but he’s got several strong local efforts on his resume; ROYAL POSSE: Has struggled of late, and it’s alarming to see him in for the optional claiming tag, but he’s 5-for-7 over this surface, and the change in scenery may wake him up.

R6

Skyline Drive (MTO)
Thrice
Prado Vision

THRICE: Has done very little wrong in three career starts and makes her first start for new trainer George Weaver. She’s won going two turns before and should be flying late; PRADO VISION: Drops back in for a tag after running fourth against better at Churchill. Like my top pick, she’ll benefit if an early speed duel ensues; QUESTEQ: Draw a line through the last-out effort, which came against much better horses and may have been a bounce off of a career-best performance. Castellano returns to ride her, and he’s piloted her to her two top efforts. DIRT SELECTIONS: SKYLINE DRIVE, QUESTEQ, CRIMSON FROST.

R7

Honor Way
Courtmewithcarats
Kissin Cassie

HONOR WAY: Takes a big drop in class after fading to fifth in her first start against winners. Her races against maiden special weight foes were very solid, and she was second here last summer in her unveiling; COURTMEWITHCARATS: Is one of many in here who figure to be gunning for the early lead. She’s improved considerably since moving to trainer Danny Gargan’s barn for her 3-year-old season, and a second straight wire-to-wire win could happen; KISSIN CASSIE: Merits a look underneath at a big price off of some OK performances downstate. As mentioned, there’s a lot of speed signed on, and the faster they go early, the better this closer figures to like it.

R8

Verdant Pastures (MTO)
Lem Me Dance
Table for Six

LEM ME DANCE: Was a debut winner here last summer and has progressed this season, recorded a pair of in-the-money finishes. She tries two turns for the first time, but she had no problem with distance in her most recent outing; TABLE FOR SIX: Has been at this level a long time and seems to enjoy running second or third. She’s a must-use in exotics, though, especially if there’s any zip up front early on; BREE’S GOT HEART: Took a big step forward last time out in her first start over a firm turf course. She’s another who isn’t necessarily a “win type,” but she’s stakes-placed going two turns and isn’t without a shot at a piece of the purse. DIRT SELECTIONS: VERDANT PASTURES, ABOUT THAT BASE, BREE’S GOT HEART.

R9

Summer House (MTO)
Animal Appeal
Miss Katie Mae

ANIMAL APPEAL: Has plenty of early speed and loves this route of ground. Her lone bad race since the start of 2016 came off a long layoff in a stakes race on Preakness weekend, and this is the spot she’ll likely relish; MISS KATIE MAE: Boasts plenty of back class and has run up against several top-class turf sprinters of late. While her recent rash of runner-up finishes is concerning, the faster they go early, the better her chances should be; NITE DELITE: Is another with stakes experience, and she ran several very fast races in Florida earlier this season. DIRT SELECTIONS: SUMMER HOUSE, GINGER N RYE, SPELLKER.

R10

Abel Tasman
Salty
Elate

ABEL TASMAN: Emerged as a top 3-year-old filly with back-to-back Grade 1 wins this past spring. She’s certainly the one to beat, but the relative lack of early speed signed on here could be a concern given her late-running style; SALTY: Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick in the Acorn and was well clear of that day’s third-place finisher. She may prefer one turn, but she’s got plenty of class; ELATE: May be the pace-setter by default here. She was visually impressive when winning a minor stakes at Delaware, and she may get a chance to dictate the early tempo.

R11

River Deep (MTO)
West Point entry
Nile Prince

CHAPIN: May take a taxi to the winner’s circle if he improves off his comeback effort earlier this month at Belmont. It’s not (30,000 pounds of) bananas to think that he’ll improve second off the long layoff; NILE PRINCE: Had no chance in his debut after a horrible start, but he did rally to be beaten just five lengths. That came against a better group, and John Kimmel trainees tend to improve at second asking; PROGNOSTICATION: Has run second in back-to-back races at this level. Two turns is a question mark, but Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz are a powerful combination. DIRT SELECTIONS: RIVER DEEP, COOKIE CRISP, MAJOR FORCE.