SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/23/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $691.50

The Grade 1 Diana may not have come up big on field size, but it came up huge on talent. Chad Brown trainees Rushing Fall and Sistercharlie are a combined 20-for-29 lifetime, while Mean Mary has won three graded stakes races in a row and Starship Jubilee is 18-for-36 with $1.6 million in career earnings.

As handicappers, we tend to whine and complain when things aren’t perfect (to be fair, that happens a lot). However, to do that with any credibility in situations that matter, we need to stop and realize when things are good. Yes, six-horse fields are not ideal, but on the other hand, what top-flight horses from this division are missing?

The Sunday feature is a legitimate Grade 1 race with several Breeders’ Cup-caliber horses. I’m really excited to see these older turf distaffers go postward.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five was cancelled when multiple undercard races came off the turf (remember, all bets for turf races assume they stay there). Happy Hill Lil, meanwhile, was a closer on a day where you wanted your horse to be on or near the lead. I dropped $10.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll lean on the Grand Slam, since I like #5 SISTERCHARLIE enough to single her in the Diana. My $1 ticket starts in the fifth race and reads as follows: 4,5,7 with 1,2,5 with 1,3 with 5. I’ll also key Sistercharlie in a $10 late double starting in the eighth that singles #3 ALLIED INVASION in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: No Salt, Race 4
Longshot: High Command, Race 5

R1

Uptown Flirt
Black Sand
Simply the Best

#5 UPTOWN FLIRT: Is the lone runner in here with experience going two turns, and she ran just fine in that race. She was third that day, and the runner-up from that event came back to just miss behind a promising Chad Brown trainee a few days ago; #6 BLACK SAND: Is one of many regally-bred Chad Brown runners to debut going long on turf this meet. She certainly could win this, but she comes in off of just three works in the past month, and that means she might need a race; #2 SIMPLY THE BEST: Fetched $175,000 at auction earlier this year and has every right to be a runner. She’s by fast-rising sire Constitution and is a half-sister to a horse named Guns Loaded, who won a Grade 3 on the grass.

R2

Scoring
Wicksters Dream
Mission Wrapitup

#7 SCORING: Likely needed his last race, which doubled as his first outing since August. He drops back in against claimers of his own age group in this race, and the outside post combined with his tactical speed could give jockey David Cohen plenty of options; #3 WICKSTERS DREAM: Has won two in a row and thumped a weaker group last month at this route. He goes from one astute barn to another, and this is a horse that may be figuring things out on his way up the ladder; #4 MISSION WRAPITUP: Runs for a tag for the first time after fading to fourth against state-bred allowance foes going slightly longer. He’s run well in several state-bred stakes races and is dropped in for the tag by aggressive connections who do this often here.

R3

Fifth Risk
American West
Jade Empress

#5 FIFTH RISK: Comes in off a pair of head-turning works for the legendary Pletcher/Velazquez tag team. She’s by promising young sire Outwork, and if the strong gate drills are any indication, she’s got all the talent it takes to win at first asking; #3 AMERICAN WEST: Hammered for $925,000 last year at Keeneland and is bred to be special. She’s by Curlin and out of Grade 3 winner Jacaranda, who herself is a half-sister to Constitution. The hesitation comes because she initially shipped north to Monmouth, which is where Chad Brown’s second-stringers usually go; #6 JADE EMPRESS: Earned a bullet for her most recent work on August 13th, and she’s got enough solid drills to suggest that wasn’t a fluke. Bill Mott’s runners often need a race or two to get going, and she’s bred to go a bit longer than this route, but if she’s ready, she’s got every right to run well.

R4

No Salt
False Alarm
Supply Sider

#2 NO SALT: Will likely be a very heavy favorite, and for good reason. He ran a good second in his first start for a tag earlier this month, and this doesn’t seem like nearly as strong a group as the one he faced that day; #7 FALSE ALARM: Was very headstrong in the same race my top pick exits, so I’m willing to draw a line through that effort. His two-back race at Belmont was pretty solid, and another run like that likely gets him a big piece of this; #4 SUPPLY SIDER: Took a while to get going last time out but did enough to salvage fourth in his first start around two turns. With only two prior efforts to this point, maybe he’s got more room to improve.

R5

Cold Hard Cash
High Command
Six Percent

#7 COLD HARD CASH: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the two-back effort, one that preceded a layoff of longer than six months. He broke his maiden last time out and tries two turns for the first time here. He’s got plenty of bottom-side distance pedigree, so I think he’ll embrace the added ground; #4 HIGH COMMAND: Hasn’t run in a while and didn’t show much in four outings at Aqueduct, but the return to two turns should be music to his ears. He won four times last fall at Finger Lakes going a similar route, and all of his races at Aqueduct were run at one-turn configurations; #5 SIX PERCENT: Hasn’t won in more than a year but ran an OK third in his first time going two turns last month. This is his third start off of a long layoff, and he could be coming to hand for trainer Jimmy Jerkens.

R6

Madam Deputy (MTO)
Towering Gaze
Silent Empress

#1 TOWERING GAZE: Drops into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time after three OK efforts against state-bred maiden special weight foes. It seems like she’s found a soft group for the level, and this barn has been picking up steam over the past week; #5 SILENT EMPRESS: May not have had the best trip in her debut, when she was boxed in most of the stretch run. I don’t know how much that trouble really cost her, but she’s certainly eligible to improve and Rosario sees fit to ride back; #2 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH: Just missed against similar last time out and figures to once again do her best running late. Based on figures, she’s a contender, but she’s had plenty of chances and may not get as much early pace as she wants.

R7

Free Enterprise
Big Engine
Pete’s Play Call

#3 FREE ENTERPRISE: Gets one more shot from me after possibly bouncing a bit last time out. He was fifth against a pretty strong group for that level, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. Improvement third off the bench wouldn’t be a shock; #1 BIG ENGINE: Always seems to fire and may have run a career-best race last time out. This is another step up in class out of the state-bred ranks, but it’s tough to say he doesn’t deserve a shot against these given his recent form; #6 PETE’S PLAY CALL: Responded to the drop in class with a win last time out, and his new connections step him back up the ladder here. He’s 3-for-3 at Saratoga, and his tactical speed should ensure jockey Luis Saez will be able to work out a favorable trip.

R8

Sistercharlie
Starship Jubilee
Rushing Fall

#5 SISTERCHARLIE: Likely needed her return to the races in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, where she was third in a race that was likely shorter than she wants to go. Between the added distance, improved readiness, and the pace scenario, she looms large in her attempt at a third straight win in the Grade 1 Diana; #4 STARSHIP JUBILEE: Ran her win streak to four in a row in the Ballston Spa and has done lots right over the past few seasons. Her recent string of victories includes two at today’s distance, and she may be in career-best form; #3 RUSHING FALL: Has assembled a resume that could get her in the Hall of Fame someday. She’s 10-for-13 lifetime, with Grade 1 wins in four straight seasons, but this may be a bit longer than she wants to go and she may have company up front in the form of #6 MEAN MARY.

R9

Allied Invasion
Nero’s Fiddle
Aintitfunkynow

#3 ALLIED INVASION: Ran reasonably well when third in his debut earlier this month. Pay attention to how No Salt, that day’s runner-up, performs in the fourth. A strong performance by him may mean good things for this one; #5 NERO’S FIDDLE: Has run fourth twice against similar foes and gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez. Blinkers come on as well, and I think he may show significantly more early zip than he has in the past; #6 AINTITFUNKYNOW: Didn’t do much running here last month in his first try at this level. His two and three-back efforts at Belmont, though, would make him a major player if he can channel that form; the question is, is he the type of horse that’s better around one turn?

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $968

Breaking news from Northern California: An army of ducks has escaped captivity and has taken over part of the grandstand at Golden Gate Fields. In a Friday press conference, one of the ducks said this was a revolt against a leader who took a trip to Saratoga without planning to bring back souvenirs for his friends.

While denying that the beloved Saratoga Goose provided any inspiration, the ducks have stated that if their leader is not at his post come mid-August, their conquests could extend to the Northern California fair circuit, Grants Pass, and possibly even a casino or two in Reno. If any of you see or hear this leader in your travels, please ensure that this message is received. Additionally, if he has not bought himself or his father a copy of The Pink Sheet, guilt-trip him into doing so.

(Hi, Matt!)

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Our Pick Four play was cancelled due to races coming off the turf. What was left were the doubles to Lotta Ott, who was shuffled back a bit early and checked in fourth. As such, we dropped $12.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the 10th race and attempt to extract some value out of my best bet of the day. That’s #5 PAYNE, who I’ll key in $5 exactas on top of #4 UBER KIRK, #7 RULER OF THE NILE, and #8 HERSH. Additionally, I’ll play $5 doubles that start there and use #7 PROGNOSTICATION and #8 PATRIOT DRIVE in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

– – – – –

BEST BET: Payne, Race 10
LONGSHOT: Kazmania, Race 7

R1

She’s Not Bluffing
Win the Shake
Warm

#10 SHE’S NOT BLUFFING: Took a big step forward when she won by daylight last time out at Belmont. She tries winners for the first time, but this doesn’t hit me as a great field for the level; #5 WIN THE SHAKE: Likely needed her most recent start off of a four-month layoff. She showed some potential in two starts earlier this year at Aqueduct and adds blinkers for this event; #9 WARM: Takes a big drop in class after showing enough to try stakes company earlier this year. If she channels her Tampa form, she’ll be tough, but the drop is large enough that it raises eyebrows.

R2

Mike’s Girl
Prisoner’s Dilemma
Mz Seb Pat

#3 MIKE’S GIRL: Did everything but win when second at this level last time out at Belmont. She figures to be the main speed, and the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs could be what she needs to find the winner’s circle; #2 PRISONER’S DILEMMA: Drops in for a tag for the first time and should relish the class relief. Her race two back at Aqueduct was very good, and a repeat of that effort would make her a major player; #9 MZ SEB PAT: Has run well at this level twice this season and should be moving well late. The post position is a concern, but they should be going pretty quickly early on, which could help.

R3

By Your Side
Cucina
Tomato Bill

#5 BY YOUR SIDE: Prevailed in a blanket finish at first asking at Churchill, and that race came back fine figures-wise. The outside post should be a big help, and it could ensure a perfect stalking trip; #3 CUCINA: Rallied in the slop to graduate last time out and may very well be favored here. He’s hinted at talent, but the slop may have moved him up, and such conditions may not be present here; #4 TOMATO BILL: Graduated at first asking at Delaware Park and sports a series of recent five-furlong drills here. He seems like the main speed, but this is a much tougher field than what he faced first time out.

R4

Zyramid
Irked
High Tide

#6 ZYRAMID: Showed plenty of speed in his debut, when he was third behind a next-out winner. His experience should help him, and it’s tough to imagine him being outsprinted early; #3 IRKED: Has worked well ahead of his debut and merits respect at a bit of a price. He’s by War Front, and his dam and second dam both won stakes races as 2-year-olds, so it wouldn’t be stunning if he was ready to run right away; #1 HIGH TIDE: Debuts for Pletcher and Velazquez and sports several solid local workouts. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s due to the rail draw, which isn’t ideal for a first-time starter.

R5

Sinwaan (MTO)
Turf War
Paper Clip

#7 TURF WAR: Gets a tepid nod in what hit me as a confounding turf sprint. Her form overseas was fine, and Europeans getting Lasix in American debuts are always worth a look, especially when they run for powerhouse connections like these; #2 PAPER CLIP: Was sharp in victory last time out at Churchill and faces winners for the first time here. She’s improved in each of her four career starts, and she’ll likely show speed from her inside post; ENTRY: Of the coupled runners, I prefer #1A NOBLE FREUD, who’s won here before. She’s another with early zip, but the layoff is a significant concern. DIRT SELECTIONS: SINWAAN, NOBLE FREUD, OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE.

R6

Enforceable
Field Pass
Decorated Invader

#4 ENFORCEABLE: Has run reasonably well in two sprints and gets two turns, which he’s bred to love. He’s a full brother to multiple graded stakes-winner Mohaymen, who did his best work going long, and with his 300 turf Tomlinson rating, the surface shouldn’t be a problem; #3 FIELD PASS: Rallied to finish second in his debut at Churchill despite a slow early pace. The pace situation is unclear here as well, but improvement is logical at second asking; #2 DECORATED INVADER: Fetched $200,000 at auction and sports a solid series of local drills ahead of his unveiling. This barn isn’t necessarily known for precocious 2-year-olds, but he’s bred to go long, which should help. DIRT SELECTIONS: ENFORCEABLE, GHOST OF THE MAMBO, PLETCHER ENTRY.

R7

Red Zinger
Lutsky
Kazmania

#8 RED ZINGER: Cuts back in distance after fading to sixth in his first try against winners. He’s been firing bullets over the Oklahoma track, and this six-furlong trip seems like the one he wants; #7 LUTSKY: Makes his first start for new trainer Jorge Navarro and has shown early zip in the past. Navarro can move horses up with the best of them, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., can’t be ignored; #3 KAZMANIA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. He was third at this level downstate in his first start since January and should be running well late.

R8

Peaceful
First Wave
Miss You Blues

#6 PEACEFUL: Missed the break in her debut at Monmouth, but still rallied to finish a good second. She doesn’t seem to catch a strong field for this level, and any step forward under Castellano would make her tough; #7 FIRST WAVE: Is bred up and down for turf and ran OK when second in an off-the-turf event back in May. This is likely what she wants to do, and she may be good enough to overcome the outside post; #5 MISS YOU BLUES: Adds blinkers after checking in third at this level at Belmont. She was wide last time out, and the slight cutback in distance could work to her advantage.

R9

Rushing Fall
Homerique
Sistercharlie

#2 RUSHING FALL: Has lost just once in nine career starts, and this trip should hit her right between the eyes. She has plenty of speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could come in handy given the speed directly to her outside; #6 HOMERIQUE: Went 2-for-2 at Belmont after shipping in from Europe and certainly merits respect. She overcame slow early paces in both of those events, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s only because she may want a hair longer than she’ll go here; #4 SISTERCHARLIE: Comes back off a long layoff to get her campaign started in a race she won a season ago. The break is a major concern, as is the likely pace scenario. At her best, she probably wins, but if there’s ever a spot to go against her, it’s now.

R10

Payne
Uber Kirk
Ruler of the Nile

#5 PAYNE: Has yet to run a bad race, and was most recently second behind the classy Rowayton in a swiftly-run allowance at Belmont. He’ll be running well late in a race with plenty of speed signed on, which could make him very tough; #4 UBER KIRK: Has run four solid races in a row and seems to be hitting his peak as a 4-year-old. His win two back going a mile was solid, and he’s another that will be making one run as they turn for home; #7 RULER OF THE NILE: May not have lived up to the $1 million price tag he hammered for back in 2017, but he’s won three of his last four starts and has shown plenty of early zip. He won here last summer, and I think he’s one to use in the exotics at a big price.

R11

Shareholder Value (MTO)
Prognostication
Patriot Drive

#7 PROGNOSTICATION: Has not missed the board in four local starts and almost certainly needed his last-out clunker off of a long layoff. He takes a big drop in class and looms large in this spot; #8 PATRIOT DRIVE: Has won two in a row at this level since being moved to the Danny Gargan barn. He’s come to hand over Belmont’s one-turn configuration, but he does have a two-turn turf win to his credit from early-2018 at Fair Grounds; #11 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM: Held on last time out after making a big middle move in a race without much early speed. The post position is unfortunate, but his best could very well be good enough. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHAREHOLDER VALUE, CONQUEROR, GRAY SKY.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/21/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $978

Earlier this week, news broke that owner Ron Paolucci is leaving the game following a series of run-ins with people and organizations he called “the racing elite.” Paolucci (whose horses run under the moniker Loooch Racing Stables) was second among all North American owners with 159 wins in 2017, so this is not a small-time operation that’s being dissolved.

I’m partial to strong personalities and owners who aren’t afraid to run their horses in big spots (it was the shoe of his horse that wound up in Gun Runner’s tail during last year’s Whitney!). That latter point hits home in an age where field sizes at the top end of the sport seem to be getting smaller with every passing year. I’ve never met Mr. Paolucci, but it seems like he’s done a lot of good for the sport of horse racing, and I sincerely hope he reconsiders his decision.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Monteleone could not have broken worse in the third at Saratoga and lost all chance immediately. We dropped $22.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract some value from my best bet of the day, which is #2 NITROUS in the sixth. I’ll play $10 doubles that start in the fifth (which strikes me as a fun betting race) and use #8 SHAPE SHIFTER and #9 OUR GIRL ABBY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Nitrous, Race 6
Longshot: Whiskey Echo, Race 9

R1

Dubb entry
Helooksthepart
Full Salute

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer FORGE, who ran a clunker last time out but reeled off three wins in a row before that. He drops down in class for aggressive connections, and while J S BACH isn’t poorly meant, the former’s the reason the entry will be a short-priced favorite; HELOOKSTHEPART: Makes his 50th career start in this spot, and has proven himself as a hard-trying veteran that can come running late. There’s plenty of pace in this race, and he may be going best of all in the final furlong; FULL SALUTE: Didn’t break well last time out and was out of his element as a result. He was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez that day and figures to be a pace factor with a clean start.

R2

Digital Footprint
Seanow
One Mission

DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Is bred up and down for grass and put forth a solid local drill on the training track’s turf course. He’s by Giant’s Causeway, out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, and trained by Chad Brown, one of the best first-out turf trainers in the country; SEANOW: Didn’t do much running in his debut, but is bred to want every bit of this two-turn route. Improvement is logical at second asking, and one could do worse than trusting the Pletcher/Velazquez tandem; ONE MISSION: Merits a look at a big price. He broke terribly in his debut, but adds blinkers and distance for Bill Mott, whose horses often get better with experience.

R3

Awesome Slew
Wonderful Light
Behavioral Bias

AWESOME SLEW: Has been chasing some of the top one-turn horses in the country and merits respect in this loaded allowance event. The seven-furlong trip should hit him right between the eyes, and there should be plenty of pace for him to rate behind; WONDERFUL LIGHT: Just missed in a similarly strong allowance at Belmont, where he beat graded stakes winner Stallwalkin’ Dude (among others). He’s never missed the board in seven lifetime starts, and Franco’s piloted him to two of his three wins; BEHAVIORAL BIAS: Has finished in the money in 10 of 11 starts and broke his maiden here last summer. He was beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 3 Commonwealth and adds blinkers for a barn hitting at 29% this year.

R4

Windjammer
Gentle Ruler
Plans to Prosper

WINDJAMMER: Is a pace play in a wide-open turf event where I’d suggest hitting the “ALL” button in multi-race exotics wagers. The slight cutback in distance should help her, and I’m hoping she gets brave on the front end; GENTLE RULER: May have bounced a bit last time out off a big effort two back in what was her first start in almost six months. If she repeats the two-back effort (where she was narrowly beaten by two next-out winners), she could provide some value; PLANS TO PROSPER: Was beaten less than a length at this level last time out and gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez. I’m not sure about the horses she faced that day, but she could improve given the new jockey and a return to a two-turn route of ground.

R5

Shape Shifter
Our Girl Abby
Tee Up

SHAPE SHIFTER: Raced greenly last time out at Laurel Park, but was a runaway winner two and three back in her first two dirt starts. A return to that form would make her tough to beat, especially given the class drop; OUR GIRL ABBY: Responded to the drop in class with a runaway win last time out at Gulfstream Park. She was claimed by Danny Gargan that day, and while she does take a step up, it’s possible she may have finally found the appropriate level; TEE UP: Hasn’t won in a while, but showed improvement in her last two outings, when she was second against similar foes downstate. She should be prominent early, and could hold on for a share at a price.

R6

Nitrous
Coast
Fed Fever

NITROUS: Did everything but win first time out at Churchill Downs, when he was beaten a neck and topped the third-place finisher by more than five lengths. A repeat of that race will make him tough, and we may get an acceptable price given the large field; COAST: Merits a look if he draws in off the AE list. He fetched $500,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked well for Todd Pletcher, but needs a scratch to make his debut in this spot; FED FEVER: Has worked well of late for George Weaver, whose barn is quietly one of the best on the circuit with first-time starters.

R7

Call Provision
Hello Don Julio
Patterson Cross

CALL PROVISION: Always seems to fire a big shot and did not disgrace himself when fourth in a pair of graded events earlier this year. He figures to get a pace to run at, and it helps that he’s won twice over this turf course; HELLO DON JULIO: Seems like the main speed in here, and is another that’s been running against some very strong turf horses. A repeat of his win here last August would make him a major player; PATTERSON CROSS: Looks much more formidable if you toss the Mac Diarmida effort, which was his first outing in more than 11 months. Draw a line through that race, and you have a runner that hasn’t run poorly since late-2016, one that could come flying late.

R8

First Appeal
Really Proud
Battle Joined

FIRST APPEAL: Ran well here three times last summer, notching two wins and a third-place finish in 24 days. Horses that are proven to love this route of ground always get extra consideration, and she’ll be tough if she can channel that form in this turf sprint; REALLY PROUD: Ran well two back in a listed stakes race, but may have moved too early last time out at Belmont. The slight cutback should help her, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; BATTLE JOINED: Put it all together last time out in winning a swiftly-run maiden race. A similar effort would make her competitive here, but she must work out a trip from a far outside post.

R9

Sombeyay
Whiskey Echo
Lexitonian

SOMBEYAY: Has had gate issues, but is less than a length away from being 2-for-2 heading into this year’s Sanford. The rail draw is less than ideal for a horse that’s found trouble this often, but it sure seems like there’s lots of talent here; WHISKEY ECHO: Won like a 1/2 shot should in his debut and gets Lasix for the first time here. His July 9th workout was sharp, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., staying aboard is a plus; LEXITONIAN: Was professional in his debut, which he won by a length after rating just off the pace. He may be the less-fancied of Todd Pletcher’s runners, but he could still win with a logical step forward.

R10

Sistercharlie
A Raving Beauty
Proctor’s Ledge

SISTERCHARLIE: Spotted the leader nearly 30 lengths in the Grade 2 New York, but still nearly managed to get home first. Her effort two back in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley was sensational, and she’ll be tough to beat with that kind of performance; A RAVING BEAUTY: Is 2 for 2 since coming to America and won the Grade 1 Just A Game last time out. This is her first try going two turns since coming across the pond, but nothing says she can’t get that trip; PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Loves Saratoga and merits respect based on the races she ran here a season ago. She won the Grade 2 Lake Placid and Grade 3 Lake George, and she was less than a length behind my second selection last time out.

R11

Hieroglyphics
Monster Bea
Team Colors

HIEROGLYPHICS: Won here twice last summer, including when he took a $100,000 stakes race over some very solid runners. He hasn’t won since and takes a big class drop to run for a $50,000 tag, which could wake him up in a big way; MONSTER BEA: Hasn’t won in a long time, but has chased graded stakes-caliber horses for most of that stretch. He’s another for whom this race represents a drop in class; TEAM COLORS: Beat similar competition last time out at Belmont in his first start for Jimmy Jerkens. A repeat of that effort could win, but navigating a trip from the 11-hole on this turf course is no easy task.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/22/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Not many brilliant 2-year-olds win Grade 1 races as 5-year-olds. Lady Eli has done that, all after overcoming laminitis. She headlines a renewal of the Grade 1 Diana that’s short on quantity, but not on quality. It’s also drawn fellow Grade 1 winners Antonoe and Dickinson, among others, and if Lady Eli continues conquering such fields this summer and fall, it may be time to start discussing her Hall of Fame credentials.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Victory to Victory faded and Dream Dancing never fired, so our doubles fizzled out and we dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got much more confidence in the early part of today’s card than in the later races, so I’ll play a 50-cent early Pick Four (contingent on turf races staying there). I’ll use #1 DADDY’S HOME and #9 MINISTER’S STRIKE in the second, single #5 UNTAMED DOMAIN in the third, press the “ALL” button in the fourth, and finish with #3 TAP DADDY, #4 SPORTING CHANCE, and #8 MACHISMO in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $21

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Untamed Domain, Race #3
Longshot: End Play, Race #7

R1

Marshall Plan
Mr. Crow
Adulation

MARSHALL PLAN: Has run two sharp races behind stakes-quality 3-year-olds and may have found a softer spot here. The horse to his inside has potential, but based on his body of work, this one’s the one to beat; MR. CROW: Was a close-up second in his debut, where he outran his 11-1 odds and was credited with a solid 89 Beyer Speed Figure. The July 8th bullet seems to indicate he’s continued to develop since that performance; ADULATION: Has been away since November but ran against several stakes-quality horses as a 2-year-old. He may need a race, but he fits based on last season’s form.

R2

Sheep Pond entry
Minister’s Strike
Prize Fight

DADDY’S HOME: Was an impressive debut winner two back, but misfired against much better last month downstate. A return to two turns should help him, and these waters aren’t nearly as deep; MINISTER’S STRIKE: Has spent his entire season to date in stakes company and takes a much-needed class drop here. Both of his wins have come going two turns on turf; PRIZE FIGHT: Lost all chance last out and was in too deep two back in the Grade 2 Penn Mile. His form from earlier this season in Florida would be good enough for a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: CURTIS, ESCAPE VELOCITY, HONOR THY FATHER.

R3

Untamed Domain
Pete Marwick
Another

UNTAMED DOMAIN: Is bred up and down to go long on turf, and he had plenty of traffic trouble in his debut. He came flying late that day, and the addition of Lasix is a major plus; PETE MARWICK: Has three starts of experience and tries turf for the first time. His pedigree says he could take to it, and he nearly graduated two back downstate; ANOTHER: May need a race, but has the pedigree to be a good one. His dam is a half-sister of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another, and the July 4th work on the Oklahoma track was very sharp. DIRT SELECTIONS: PETE MARWICK, PLETCHER ENTRY, HONORABLE TREASURE.

R4

Voluntario
Shuffle Up
Alex the Terror

VOLUNTARIO: Was outclassed two back in the Grade 3 General George and likely needed his last race, which came off a substantial layoff. He drops in for a tag and seems well-meant in a race that, to this writer, was a mess to handicap; SHUFFLE UP: Won two in a row by daylight at Aqueduct before misfiring last out at Belmont. He’s got plenty of early zip and could be tough to catch if left alone early on; ALEX THE TERROR: Disappointed first off the claim, but ran a strong race at seven furlongs three back against much better. This is another who may be helped by the drop in class he gets in this spot.

R5

Machismo
Tap Daddy
Sporting Chance

MACHISMO: Fetched $500k at auction last year and has been working like a very good horse ahead of his debut. This isn’t an easy spot, but if this one runs to his potential, he could be a buzz horse moving forward; TAP DADDY: Hails from a barn that doesn’t usually work horses quickly, which makes several of his drills very interesting. He’s bred to go much longer than this, but all indications are that there’s plenty of talent here; SPORTING CHANCE: Did very little wrong when second in his debut last month at Churchill Downs. He was well clear of the third-place finisher, but that field may have been weaker than what he faces here.

R6

Born for a Storm
Gucci Factor
Fleet Irish

BORN FOR A STORM: Comes off a nine-month layoff, but ran two very strong races here last year. He’s been working well here ahead of his 4-year-old debut, and Brown and Castellano have won plenty of races together; GUCCI FACTOR: Ran off the screen in his seasonal debut last month at Belmont, winning by 16 lengths and appearing to have more in reserve. This is a much tougher spot, but he may have figured things out in a big way; FLEET IRISH: Hasn’t won since his debut last November, but this distance hits him between the eyes, and he’d benefit from an early speed duel, which could happen given the huge field signed on.

R7

Still Krz (MTO)
End Play
Partly Mocha

END PLAY: Comes in off a win downstate and is ridden back by Luis Saez, who’s been aboard for all three of his career victories. He ran well here twice a season ago, and 8-1 is a square price for a horse that appears to be in peak form; PARTLY MOCHA: Has been running against some of the top turf sprinters in the country and should certainly appreciate the shallower waters this race provides. The post position isn’t ideal, but he should be running well late; EVACUATION: Was thought of highly enough by his previous connections that they tried Group 1 company down under last year. He makes his North American debut for Wesley Ward and has attracted jockey John Velazquez. DIRT SELECTIONS: STILL KRZ, BOLITA BOYZ, LUNA DE LOCO.

R8

Annie Rocks (MTO)
Gioia Stella
Pricedtoperfection

GIOIA STELLA: Assuredly needed her 2017 debut after the layoff and wasn’t helped by that race being moved off the turf. Her two-turn turf efforts are among the best races of her career, and she gets such a route here; PRICEDTOPERFECTION: Makes her first start for a new barn and will be seen in the afternoon for the first time since September. Her back class is considerable, and she’ll be a major player if she’s ready to run; STELLA ROSE: Was third in a high-level allowance in her 2017 bow and won here a season ago. She’s run up against some high-quality horses, and this is a logical spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANNIE ROCKS, JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT, BROWSE.

R9

Direct Dial
Admiral Jimmy
Baffin

DIRECT DIAL: Did the dirty work in the Tremont, setting very fast fractions. He still hung on for second money that day, and he figures to be the main speed in a renewal of the historic Sanford; ADMIRAL JIMMY: Was nosed by my top selection in the Tremont and showed an ability to rate off the pace in that performance. He’d benefit from a fast pace, which could materialize; BAFFIN: Was never threatened in a sharp debut victory at Churchill Downs. It’s curious that Steve Asmussen (Direct Dial’s trainer) also enters this one here when there are ample 2-year-old races around the country.

R10

Lady Eli
Antonoe
Dickinson

LADY ELI: Won a scorching renewal of the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita in May and appears to be as sharp as ever. She’s aided here by what appears to be a lack of early speed, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she led early on; ANTONOE: Flew home to capture the Grade 1 Just A Game and improve to 2-for-2 in North America. This race shape may not set up as well for her, but she’s certainly talented enough to continue her winning ways; DICKINSON: Was herded in the Just A Game, but likely wasn’t beating Antonoe that day. She did, however, top Lady Eli on the square two back, and she’s another who could be forwardly-placed.

R11

Doyouknowsomething (MTO)
Souperfast
Blarp

SOUPERFAST: Was impressive downstate in his last appearance and was claimed out of that race by David Jacobson. Many in this field may prefer one turns to this two-turn route, but he’s shown to be equally effective at either configuration; BLARP: Had a world of trouble when last seen and returns to a turf course he’s won on in the past. He has ample back class and should improve with a better trip; MILLS: Was third behind my top pick in his last outing and has since joined the Rudy Rodriguez barn. He’s one of the best on the circuit with new acquisitions, so improvement wouldn’t be a surprise. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING, CARVE, MILLS.