SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/21)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $975

The issue with Wednesday’s ruling involving exiled trainer Bob Baffert goes far deeper than, “will Baffert be allowed to run at Saratoga?” That’s the catchy, eyes-grabbing talking point. However, my question is this: After that ruling, what effectiveness will racing’s governing bodies have in handing down punishments with teeth?

The Baffert saga is far from over, and we don’t know how it’ll end. One thing that’s for sure is that racing has a major problem appropriately punishing trainers for violations. Rulings like this one could make that even more difficult. If there’s no incentive to not test the rules, and if whatever sanctions exist don’t fit the crimes associated with them, why wouldn’t win-hungry trainers go as far as they can?

Make no mistake, this doesn’t apply to all trainers, or even most of them. New York is home to some world-class horsemen and horsewomen who care deeply about the equines in their barns. However, at a time where optics matter more than ever before, I think I have a right to be more than a bit concerned.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Alba’s Star got exactly the trip I wanted her to get, but she dropped anchor fast when Kitten by the Sea ranged up outside. I was right in thinking that one wouldn’t win (she got reeled in by Five Alarm Robin), but I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll turn to the eighth race, where I’ll take a small stand. I think it’s possible likely favorites #6 EASY TO BLESS and #8 PATTY H duel each other into defeat. I’ll lean on #3 POLISHED GEM with a $5 win/place bet, and I’ll also key her in $3 exactas above the two favorites and $2 exactas below them.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Quick Return, Race 2
Longshot: Polished Gem, Race 8

R1

Shashashakemeup
LC Racing entry
Mihos

#5 SHASHASHAKEMEUP: Was less than 12-1 in a Grade 1 two starts ago and hasn’t done much wrong since being claimed by Peter Miller late last year. He’s got a bit more early zip than he’s shown in his last few starts, and a clean stalking trip would make him tough to beat; LC RACING ENTRY: I prefer #1A SMOOTH B, who prevailed against weaker at Parx last time out. The outside draw should help him, and he may have enough early speed to clear the field going down the backstretch; #2 MIHOS: Makes his first start for new trainer Brad Cox and showed plenty of promise earlier in his career. He was fourth in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler last fall, and perhaps a change of scenery will allow him to recapture that form. 

R2

Quick Return
Clear Humor
Far Away Look

#8 QUICK RETURN: Did everything but win last time out in his first start since August and looms large from the outside draw. In theory, this is a class jump, but this is far from the strongest race for the level, and a repeat of his last-out effort almost certainly beats these; #6 CLEAR HUMOR: Drops in for a tag at second asking for a barn whose horses tend to improve with experience. Both the winner and runner-up from his debut came right back to win, so at least he chased solid competition; #5 FAR AWAY LOOK: Hasn’t raced since December, and the drop in class is a concern, but he’s worked very well ahead of his 2021 debut. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride for Ken McPeek, and maturation from two to three would give him a shot at a piece of this.

R3

Courageous Girl (MTO)
Giacosa
Light in the Sky

#2 GIACOSA: Has been competitive in a pair of starts against similar downstate and could relish a return to this turf course. One of her best career efforts came here last summer going two turns, and she’s got enough speed to work out a dream trip; #4 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Has recorded both of her wins (and two seconds) over this turf course and actually ran pretty well in the off-the-turf Mount Vernon last time out. If she gets a faster-than-expected pace to run at, she could be a handful turning for home; #6 CHOCOLATE COOKIE: Will probably go favored given her connections and solid 2020 campaign, but I have my doubts, especially at her likely price. She hasn’t run since October, this field came up pretty salty for the condition, and it’s not like her figures dwarf those of her rivals.

R4

Tekila (MTO)
Angelou
Flaming Rouge

#7 ANGELOU: Ran well in her seasonal debut, when she was second after stalking a very slow pace downstate. Sire Curlin has no problem throwing horses who can run marathon-type distances, and she sure looks like one of the few forwardly-placed horses in this group; #5 FLAMING ROUGE: Stretched out to a mile and a quarter and was beaten less than a length last time out. The tag team of Clement and Rosario must be respected, but given that she’s now 0-for-7, it may be time to question if she wants to win; #3 FORTUNA: Ran well going very long a few times last season and may have needed the race last time out at Belmont. A repeat of either of her efforts from last summer would give her a chance at a square price.

R5

Absolute Love
Seeds of Time
Yes I’m Evil

#5 ABSOLUTE LOVE: Routed an overmatched field last month in Indiana and drops back into the claiming ranks here. He’s shown he does his best work going two turns, and trainer Joe Sharp has quietly enjoyed a strong year to this point, hitting at a 19% clip; #6 SEEDS OF TIME: Was claimed by the high-percentage Danny Gargan outfit last time and has worked well ahead of his local debut. He won twice going long at Oaklawn this past winter/spring, and that type of form plus a lively early pace would make him a contender; #2 YES I’M EVIL: Takes a curious drop all the way to the $12,500 ranks after running third for a $40,000 tag last time out at Keeneland. Her last two wins both came in off-the-turf races at Fair Grounds, but perhaps the class drop is enough to put her right there.

R6

Let Her Inspire U
November Rein
Tough Street

#2 LET HER INSPIRE U: Hammered for $500,000 earlier this year and has plenty of pedigree. She’s by promising young sire Practical Joke, the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team merits respect, and the most recent workout on July 10th was a head-turner; #7 NOVEMBER REIN: Did everything but win in her debut downstate, when she was second beaten a neck after setting the pace. Only one published work since then is a bit of a red flag, but if she steps forward off of that race, look out; #5 TOUGH STREET: Has been working consistently for Chad Brown ahead of her unveiling, but in a race with several promising young fillies, I’m going to try to beat her. Her works don’t tower over her competition, and while it won’t be a shock if she’s well-meant, her likely odds hit me as an underlay.

R7

Amendment Nineteen (MTO)
Too Sexy
Rivendell

#2 TOO SEXY: Hasn’t run a bad race since being shortened up to turf sprints last summer by Clement, and she exits a good second downstate where she rated a bit behind a slow pace. This trip should suit her better, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #10 RIVENDELL: Draws an unfavorable outside post but was a decent second last time out after being much closer to the pace. John Velazquez gets the mount, and if the recent works at Belmont are any indication, she’s coming into this event in very good form; #3 MUMBAI: Is the “other” Clement in this race and ships up after running second at Monmouth. Prior to that, she broke her maiden at Gulfstream and topped a next-out winner in the process.

R8

Polished Gem
Easy to Bless
Patty H

#3 POLISHED GEM: Merits a long look at a nice price. She won a similar race at Churchill two back before running second for a slightly higher tag, and I love that she’s shown an ability to stalk and pass others late. Not needing the lead could help her in a race with lots of early zip; #6 EASY TO BLESS: Has won four in a row and drops in off a victory against starter allowance foes at Belmont. She’s got plenty of early speed, and it’s encouraging to see Rosario ride back when he probably had some options; #8 PATTY H: Has won three times in her last four starts and thumped a weaker bunch in Indiana last month, but I’ve got some questions. She’s in career-best form and sold for $125,000 in 2019, so why is top-class horseman Brad Cox dropping her in for $40,000 after she’s gotten on track?

R9

Value Proposition
Delaware
Rinaldi

#3 VALUE PROPOSITION: Is one of three runners from the Chad Brown barn in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, and he hits me as the most likely winner. His most recent effort at Belmont was very strong, and logical improvement in his third start of the form cycle would make him the one to beat; #7 DELAWARE: Got zero pace to run at in the Seek Again last time out but rallied to take a similar race two back at Aqueduct. He may be somewhat pace-dependent, but there is some speed signed on, and that could set things up for him; #1 RINALDI: Draws the rail and sure looks like the one they’ll all be chasing into the first turn. He’s never won outside of the state-bred ranks, so perhaps he’s a bit outclassed, but if he’s able to dictate terms, he could hang on for a share.

R10

U Should B Dancing
Fancy Feline
Baudi Moovan

#4 U SHOULD B DANCING: Hits me as the one to beat in a “now or never” situation. She gets Lasix second off the bench, she’s run second in three turf sprints at this level, and quite frankly, there just isn’t much other proven form signed on; #9 FANCY FELINE: Rallied from last to be third in her debut, which was rained off the turf. This barn’s runners usually improve with experience, and if turf was the plan all along, she’s got a big shot to relish the new footing at second asking; #1 BAUDI MOOVAN: Makes her debut two years after selling for $260,000 as a yearling. She’s worked fairly well and is a daughter of top turf sire Twirling Candy, and in this sort of a field, that’s enough to give her a big chance if she’s ready to run.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/12/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

This section did not make it into the Opening Day edition of The Pink Sheet due to a print error, so some of this will be a rehash. For those of you seeing this section for the first time, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet any way I wish from now through Labor Day. I’ll also be using this space to expound on relevant matters, so if you have a question, comment, or concern, tweet it to me at @AndrewChampagne.

Also, two reminders: All of my content (picks, analysis, and bankroll plays/blurbs) is available online at AndrewChampagne.com, and all plays in the bankroll section involving turf races assume they stay on the grass. If they get rained off the turf, all plays in those races are voided.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Gosilently got to the lead but tired badly to finish off the board. As such, we dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Four, which starts in the second race and ends with my best bet of the day. I’ll play it for a dollar, and the ticket reads as follows: 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 3,8,9 with 4. I’ll also play $4 doubles starting in the fourth using the horses in the last two legs of my Pick Four play (which ensures action in case we’re rained off the turf).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Lotta Ott, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Freudycatfever, Race 10

R1

Oso Negro
Legion Storm
Derby Memories

#8 OSO NEGRO: Takes a giant drop in class for powerhouse connections after burning a fair amount of money in two starts against straight maidens. It’s tough not to see this as an alarming drop, but he boasts the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure by a clear margin; #2 LEGION STORM: Was a decent second in an off-the-turf event last time out. He was third going two turns (albeit on turf) earlier this year, and Saez returning to ride is a plus; #3 DERBY MEMORIES: Almost certainly needed his last start, which came off a layoff of nearly two years. The recent local workout indicates he’s ready to fire a bigger shot here.

R2

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Worth a Shot
Jimmy Jazz

#2 WORTH A SHOT: Stretches out to two turns off a near-miss at Belmont, and his pedigree hints that two turns should not be an issue. He’s got plenty of early zip, which is always an asset on the inner turf course, and a step forward from the last-out effort would make him tough; #5 JIMMY JAZZ: Was beaten only a neck last time out despite a wide trip and a seven-pound weight gap. He beat the third-place finisher by three lengths that day, and he’s shown he can run well at this distance; #6 CRAZY LIFE: Ran pretty well when third in his first start since August. Several of that day’s rivals show up here, but this is the one that seems most eligible to improve off of that event. DIRT SELECTION: DADDY KNOWS.

R3

Viva Forever (MTO)
Complicit
Ferdinanda

#3 COMPLICIT: Hasn’t run since October, but has fired every time out and won off of a similar-length layoff last year. There should be plenty of pace in here to set up for her late-running style; #5 FERDINANDA: Hasn’t finished worse than second in her last six starts and is another that will be running well late. She’s been working well downstate and was second in a similar spot here last summer; #4 DREAM PASSAGE: Has won two in a row over yielding going at Belmont and will almost certainly be involved early. She likely won’t be alone up front, though, and the two-turn trip is a question mark. DIRT SELECTIONS: VIVA FOREVER, BROMAN ENTRY, TANYA’S GEM.

R4

Big Muddy
Lord Simba
Soul P Say

#9 BIG MUDDY: Gets a tepid nod in one of the toughest $12,500 claiming races you’ll ever see. He’s won four of his last seven starts, the most recent of which came last time out downstate, and this barn has been firing on all cylinders this year; #8 LORD SIMBA: Took a step forward last time out in his first start for trainer Eddie Kenneally, when he won for the first time since the 2017 Los Angeles at Santa Anita. It’s tough to imagine a return to his 2017 form, but he could be coming around a bit for a very capable barn; #3 SOUL P SAY: Drops more than 50% in claiming price off of his last race and merits plenty of respect off of his back form. Given the large purse, there’s a chance this isn’t a panicky drop, although it’s jarring to see a $32,000 claim come back for $12,500.

R5

Lotta Ott
Good Shabbos
Apurate

#4 LOTTA OTT: Has turned heads in the mornings at Keeneland ahead of her unveiling. The gate work on June 26th jumps off the page, and this filly bred by former NYRA jockey Jose Espinoza sure looks like a runner; #2 GOOD SHABBOS: Has an experience edge on most of this group, having just missed last month at Monmouth. I’m not sure what she faced that day, but they ran pretty quickly that day, and this barn knows how to win with 2-year-olds; #1 APURATE: Draws the rail for the Pletcher/Velazquez duo and has a few solid drills over the training track. She’s logical, but the rail is a tough spot for a debuting runner to win from, and the pedigree screams turf, not dirt.

R6

Repole entry (MTO)
Keep Quiet
Applicator

#7 KEEP QUIET: Has had a productive 2019 campaign to date and makes his first start for Steve Asmussen. He’s run well here in the past, and while this isn’t an easy spot, he strikes me as the one to beat; #12 APPLICATOR: Has won three of his last five and may well have been my top pick with a better post. As it stands now, he’ll have to overcome a very wide draw in his first start for Linda Rice, but he may just have the talent to do it; #11 HAY DAKOTA: Is another that didn’t have any luck at the draw, but he ran a big race to win at this level last time out at Churchill. Any speed duel would certainly work to this closer’s advantage. DIRT SELECTIONS: REPOLE ENTRY, HEAVY ROLLER, SUPER DUDE.

R7

Filly Dilly
Saloon Girl (MTO)
Noble Jewel

#9 FILLY DILLY: Romped in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month at Belmont. Her pedigree says she wants grass, and any improvement in her second start would make her a formidable foe; #6 NOBLE JEWEL: Also makes her second start after springing an upset in a turf sprint downstate. That race didn’t have the best field, but she finished very quickly and Joel Rosario retains the mount; #1 SHORT POUR: Merits a look in the exotics at a price. She rallied to be beaten just two lengths in her 2019 debut, and I think she’s eligible to improve second off the bench. DIRT SELECTIONS: FILLY DILLY, SALOON GIRL, LEM ME HAVE IT.

R8

Doups Point
Dreamzapper
Big Gemmy

#6 DOUPS POINT: Has six top-two finishes in seven lifetime starts and certainly seems like the one to beat. He was second despite a bad break last time out, and two turns shouldn’t be an issue; #2 DREAMZAPPER: Has taken a big leap forward as a 4-year-old, and has run three solid route races coming into this event. His tactical speed is a plus, and that could mean a perfect stalking trip; #3 BIG GEMMY: Has won two in a row for Linda Rice, albeit against weaker competition. I’m not crazy about him being entered for a tag, but he appears to be in good form and he did break his maiden over this surface back in 2017.

R9

Voodoo Song
March to the Arch
Offering Plan

#7 VOODOO SONG: Gets my top pick in the Forbidden Apple as arguably Saratoga’s most notable “horse for course” since Fourstardave. He’s won five of six starts over this turf course, and he should be prominent early in a race that seems pretty light on early speed (outside of #1 GIDU); #5 MARCH TO THE ARCH: Rallied to win the Grade 2 Wise Dan last month at Churchill and seems to be in career-best form. His chances would improve significantly with a speed duel, although I think he may truly want a bit more ground; #4 OFFERING PLAN: Hasn’t finished out of the money in nearly two years, although many of his races have come against state-breds. He’s won twice over this turf course, and his best effort would make him a contender in this spot.

R10

Happy Sophia (MTO)
Linda’s Ballet
Freudycatfever

#6 LINDA’S BALLET: Gets back on turf and takes a big drop in class for a trainer who has had lots of success with similar stock. Repeats of her efforts two or three back would make her very tough to beat; #1 FREUDYCATFEVER: Missed the break in her debut against straight maidens and is certainly eligible to improve at second asking against a weaker group. If Noble Jewel (who won that June 7th event) runs well in the seventh, it bodes well for this one’s chances; #5 ABBY NORMAL: Has closed well in two of her prior turf tries, most recently earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure last month at Belmont. She should be moving well late at a fair price. DIRT SELECTIONS: HAPPY SOPHIA, SCARLET’S COMMAND, ABBY NORMAL.