Gulfstream Park

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita (1/6/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve come to the first Saturday of the new year, and with it come two intriguing programs at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has an assortment of ungraded stakes races on the docket, while Santa Anita will host two graded events, one of which features Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers. I’ve got two multi-race tickets at each track, so let’s get going!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10,11
R2: 2,3,6
R3: 3,5
R4: 3,5
R5: 4,7,8

72 Bets, $36

If you believe in the axiom, “Pace makes the race,” the outside two horses look like the ones to beat in the Saturday opener. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this race appears to set up for closers #10 FAN BASE and #11 LITTLE BALTAR. The outside posts give me some pause, but so many horses inside of them need the lead, and I think those runners will be backing up late.

I thought the second race was very interesting. I don’t like #7 ROYAL HOLIDAY or #8 ALIEN INVASION, both of whom may not want two turns. My top pick is #2 FLYING LIBERTY, who exits a minor stakes race and won at this route three back. I’ll also use #6 COMETIN, who likes this turf course, and I’m also throwing in #3 WICKED BOY, on the off chance he replicates his two-back effort beneath new jockey Jose Ortiz.

The third is the Limehouse Stakes, and I’m intrigued by #3 PIVEN, who ships in from Woodbine. Usually, that’s not an angle I like, but he’s been working very well lately, and if he runs to those drills, he’ll be very tough. I’m also using #5 EMPIRE POWER, who may be the controlling early speed in this short field.

I’m also two-deep in the fourth, where I’ll use a pair of class-droppers. #3 WHAT POWER last ran for a $35,000 tag and goes out for the red-hot Marcus Vitali barn, while #5 SPORTSCASTER has a number of solid races over this turf course and won in his last start at this level.

The payoff leg is the Glitter Woman Stakes, and I’m three-deep in what turned out to be a fascinating field. #4 CICATRIX and #7 ELEVENSES both romped in their debuts for trainers whose first-time starters aren’t always fully cranked, so they definitely merit consideration. I’m also using #8 FOXTROT SALLY, who may have simply not wanted two turns last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. Javier Castellano’s presence is a positive, and we may get a bit of a price given the recent dud.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 5,6,10
R9: 8
R10: 3,6
R11: ALL

72 Bets, $36

With 42 entrants across four races, there’s plenty of room for this to pay pretty well, even if shorter-priced horses find the winner’s circle. The first three legs may be formful, but if we get to the last leg, we’ll hit, and hopefully for a nice chunk of change.

The eighth is a seven-furlong maiden race for 3-year-olds, and we may see some of these horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby. #6 LIFE’S A PARLAY debuts for Todd Pletcher, and this $725,000 auction purchase is bred to be a good one. With that in mind, though, some of the workouts are pretty slow, so I want a bit more coverage than just him. #5 COVE BLUE has shown ample early speed and should relish the cutback in distance, while #10 ORBED probably needed his debut and should improve at second asking, especially with the added furlong.

I’m excited for the ninth, as there’s a 9/2 shot I really like. #8 ANDINA DEL SUR rallied impressively in her debut, and that race has proven to be a live one given the next-out winners it has produced. Every part of her pedigree says she wants to go two turns, and there should be plenty of early speed in here to set up for the kick she showed in her unveiling. I’d be very happy if we got the morning line price.

Like most people, I think the 10th race, the Mucho Macho Man, is a two-horse race. #3 DAK ATTACK was one of the most impressive 2-year-olds in the country last summer before going to the sidelines, and #6 MASK was a sharp first-out winner for Chad Brown. I’d be pretty surprised if the winner wasn’t one of those two runners.

If we get through those three legs, we’re assured to hit this wager. I needed to buy the Saturday finale because I didn’t have a clue, and judging by the morning line odds, I’m not alone. The 7/2 favorite is a horse that has been beaten a total of 33 1/4 lengths in two lifetime starts. The 4-1 second choice trailed in his debut and was beaten more than 24 lengths at odds of 32-1. If you’ve got conviction, good for you. I certainly don’t, and if we get to this point, I’ll be rooting for pari-mutuel chaos.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: ALL
R3: 3,7,8,10
R4: 1,5,12
R5: 6

96 Bets, $48

My initial feeling is that the Pick Five sequence that kicks off with the Saturday opener could wind up a bit chalky. The bookends feature popular singles, and hopefully, we can get a price or two home in the middle legs.

At first, I wanted to play against #5 MIDNIGHT SWINGER in the first. She’s dropping in class after losing her last eight races. However, the more I looked at this race, the more I disliked her opponents. #8 ROAD TEST was beaten by that one two back, #2 TIZ ADORE is 1-for-12 and has had many chances to break through, and #9 QUINN MURPHY hasn’t won since being claimed this past summer. It’s a “hold your nose” single, but that’s where I’m going.

Singling twice allows me to spread elsewhere, and I need to hit the “ALL” button in the second race. This is a bottom-level claiming event featuring horses that seem to take turns beating one another. I can’t back any of these horses with conviction, so I’ll use all eight and hope for a price.

I’m also going pretty deep in the third. This is a maiden claimer, and I can’t get too excited about any of these, either. #8 PSYCHEDELICAT may go off favored, and his Beyer Speed Figures are such that I need to use him, but he’s 0-for-12 and has never so much as run second. Of the four I used, I most prefer #7 CONFIRMED, who just missed when dropping down to this level last time out, and #10 PATH OF EXILE, who drops down in class and is eligible to improve second off the layoff for trainer Michael McCarthy.

If #12 RANCOR had gotten a better post, she may have merited a single. She did everything but win in her turf debut at Del Mar, when she was a length behind next-out stakes winner Ippodamia’s Girl. A repeat of that race would make her tough, but she’s parked way outside, so I need to use two others. #1 PAVED was third that day, and #5 EVER SO TRUE exits the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante, where she was beaten just three lengths.

The fifth is the Grade 3 Sham for 3-year-olds, and it features one of the top Kentucky Derby prospects on the west coast. That’s #6 MCKINZIE, who was put up in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. He’s worked very well since then, and if he runs his usual race, he’s going to be incredibly tough to beat.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,6,7,11
R7: 6,7,8,9
R8: 1
R9: 4,6,7,10,12

80 Bets, $40

I thought the Pick Five was pretty chalky. The late Pick Four? Not so much. I think this has the potential to pay very well, and my ticket spreads in three legs while singling a 6-1 shot in the other one.

We start off the sequence with a maiden claimer, and I’m not overly impressed by many of these runners. Of the four I used, the two I like most are #5 IMPECUNIOUS, who ships down from Golden Gate, and #11 KARMIC AFFINITY, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post.

The seventh is the Grade 2 San Gabriel, and while the cast of characters may be a bit underwhelming, the evenly-matched nature of it makes for a fun betting race. I’m four-deep, and one horse I used figures to be a big price. #9 FREE ROSE ran just once in 2017, but he’s done very little wrong over the course of his career. That one race was a solid fourth in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, where he finished just two lengths behind Bal a Bali. If he’s right, I think he’s got a big shot.

My single comes in the third leg, a seven-furlong claiming event. #1 KISS MY LULU seems like the race’s main speed, and inside speed has been very good in these extended sprints so far this meet. I’m tossing the two recent races over Golden Gate’s synthetic surface, as she’s much better on conventional dirt. If she breaks well, she could get an ideal setup, and because of that, I really like her.

If we’re alive going into the finale, we’ll be five-deep. #10 INSTANT REFLEX isn’t a bad favorite, but she’s never run down the hill before, and that’s a major concern. I’ll use her, but I need coverage elsewhere. The longshot that has to be on my ticket is #7 PHANTOM PROTON, who was beaten less than four lengths in a fast race at this route two back before running into the talented Painting Corners last time out at Del Mar. There’s plenty of speed to set up for her late kick, and the presence of top downhill rider Corey Nakatani is a huge plus.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream, Santa Anita (12/30/17), PLUS a Special Message of Thanks

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before we dive in to the analysis of Saturday’s cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, I want to take a moment in my final post of 2017 to say thank you.

I started this website nine months ago, and I started it for several reasons. Obviously, writing and handicapping are two of my biggest passions, and this gave me an outlet for that, but there were other factors at play as well. Admittedly, a large part of starting this website was in response to being told I wasn’t good enough to do certain things, and as anyone who knows me can attest, the best way to motivate me to do something is to tell me I’m incapable of doing it.

I didn’t start this site to get a certain amount of page views, so the data I’ve got knocks my socks off. In the nine months that this site has been online, it’s gotten almost 25,000 hits. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not a ton, but for one guy doing this site for no money and no ulterior motive other than providing relevant content for the sport he loves, it’s powerful stuff.

To those of you that have come along for the ride, thank you. 2017 was a banner year for me professionally. In addition to the launch of this site, I landed a fantastic job at the Daily Racing Form, and I emerged as the Saratoga meet’s leading handicapper across all media. As I tell people, “128 winners at a single Saratoga meet” is fast becoming my version of Al Bundy’s “four touchdowns in a single game!”

On a serious note, whether you visited from the start or came on at some point during the year, I’m incredibly grateful for your support. It’s my hope that 2018 provides even more excitement, and maybe even some more winners to boot. As a reminder, there’s a “contact” feature on this website, and I read every message that comes in. If you have a question, comment, or concern, use that and bring it to my attention.

Now, let’s see if we can make some money on the Saturday cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. My analysis, selections, and tickets are below. Let’s get to it!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7
R2: ALL
R3: 6,8
R4: 2,3
R5: 7

96 Bets, $48

On the whole, I think this is a pretty formful sequence. However, we may be able to make some money by getting lucky in the second leg, and even if the rest of the ticket chalks out, there may be some avenues to a profit.

The opener is a sprint for 3-year-olds, and I’ll use the two likely betting choices. #2 VENCEDOR may be favored on the class drop for Antonio Sano, but I actually prefer stablemate #7 CORONADO AGAIN, who figures to be the race’s controlling speed. He does step up in class, but he’s run against some tough opposition in the past and may get a dream setup if he’s allowed to coast to the front early.

I’m buying the second race, which, for my money, is the toughest race on the entire card. Several of the longshots are worth long looks, and the favorites aren’t without their flaws. It’s tough to predict which horse gets the early lead, and with many of the shorter prices being one-run closers, they may be crawling early. I want maximum coverage, and with a little luck, we’ll get a price home to knock out some tickets.

I’ll use the two favorites in the third, a bottom-level claimer going the one-turn mile route. #6 GOODTIMEHADBYALL and #8 ENDERS CAT drop out of the same Claiming Crown race, and by the numbers, they appear to have this field over a barrel. I’ll go a similar route in the fourth, using #2 BULLDOZER and #3 MR. BAKER, who’ll both be short prices.

That leads to the H. Allen Jerkens, a two-mile race on turf where I have a single. #7 BULLARDS ALLEY wants to run as long as possible, and a repeat of either of his last two efforts would make him tough to beat. He was beaten less than four lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and anywhere close to that type of performance would mean someone else would need to run a career-best race to win. I usually don’t like singling in marathon races, but this one makes sense.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4,11,13,14,15
R9: 2,3,5,7,10
R10: 9
R11: 2,3,10

90 Bets, $45

I found this late Pick Four sequence baffling, especially since three major contenders in the opening leg are also-eligibles that may not run. For now, I’m putting them all on the ticket, and we’ll adjust the value of the ticket downward if there are any scratches.

The eighth is a claiming event on the turf for non-winners of three, and it’s not an easy race to decipher. I’ll use three also-eligibles and three other horses, two of which are prices. #1 TAGORE is a son of Giant’s Causeway who somehow has yet to try turf, and #11 SECOND STREET comes back to the appropriate level after a failed try against much better earlier this month.

The ninth isn’t much easier. It’s the Tropical Park Oaks, and I’m five-deep. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which horse will be favored, and my top pick is a reluctant one. #2 TAPERGE loves this turf course and makes her second start following a brief freshening. She seems to be getting better with experience, and we may get a decent price.

I’ll take a stab in the third leg, the Via Borghese. My single is #9 BEAULY, a 4-1 shot last seen running a close-up fourth in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. She’s run up against some classy distaffers this season, and she gets the services of top-notch rider Luis Saez. This sequence requires a single somewhere, and I’m hoping this one’s back class carries her through.

I’m three-deep in the final leg, the Tropical Park Derby. I’m throwing out runners exiting Aqueduct’s Gio Ponti Stakes, as that was a strangely-run race that may not hold water here. My top pick is #3 PROFITEER, who gets some class relief, but I’m also using two big prices. #2 TIZ A SLAM has hinted at major potential this season for Hall of Fame conditioner Roger Attfield, and #10 DANCE STRIKE has done very little wrong in three starts and could be ready for a big effort in his stakes debut.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 1,4
R3: 3,4,5,6,9,10
R4: 1,4,5,6
R5: 3

48 Bets, $24

I really like this sequence, and my ticket boasts singles on each end of it. We may get reasonable prices on each given the field sizes in those races, so if this ticket hits, we could be in line for a nice score.

My first single is #5 PROUD HEROINE in the opener, a turf sprint coming down the hill. This one has shown plenty of early zip, and “run-off” horses like that tend to settle going this route of ground. Additionally, she’s bred up and down for turf. She’s by Proud Citizen and out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare, which results in a strong 317 turf Tomlinson number. 5-1 is a very fair price, and I think she may be the horse to beat.

I’m not getting cute in the second, a maiden event for 2-year-olds going two turns. #1 PEACE and #4 RESTORING HOPE will take the lion’s share of the betting action, and those are the two I’m using. Both just missed in their last outings, and it would be surprising if one of them didn’t get the job done here.

The third race, though, is much more wide-open. I’m six-deep, and if you want to cover your bases, hitting the “ALL” button isn’t a bad idea. I’m also using most of the field in the fourth, the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel. I’m four-deep in that six-horse affair, and if there’s a silver lining, it’s that there’s no clear-cut favorite (at least on paper).

I’ll finish with a single in the fifth, a maiden claimer for 2-year-old sprinters. #3 CHARLIE COWDEN has yet to run a bad race around one turn and gets the services of Rafael Bejarano. His matching 61 Beyer Speed Figures in his two one-turn races are far better than anything any other horse in this field has produced, and he should get a bit of a pace to run at. Hopefully, he finishes things off and gets us in line to cash the ticket.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,5,6,8,9,10
R7: 9
R8: 4,5,6
R9: 4,9,10,13,14

90 Bets, $45

The cost of this ticket is likely to come down, as two of the five horses I used in the last leg are also-eligibles. With those taken out, it’s a $27 ticket, and given the field sizes, we could be looking at a sequence that pays more than it should.

I thought the hardest leg was the opening one. It’s an optional claimer that drew a field of 11, and the morning line favorite is 3-1 despite being 0-for-his-last-7. That’s #10 SHEER FLATTERY, who I’m using but is in no way an unbeatable favorite. Want to hit the “ALL” button if scratches elsewhere make the ticket cheaper? Go ahead.

The seventh is the Grade 1 American Oaks, and I’m living and dying with #9 NEW MONEY HONEY, who is 7/2 on the morning line but may go off lower than that. Toss the Grade 1 Alabama on dirt and the two races at Keeneland, and you’re left with a horse that has lost just once (in her career debut). She won the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks at this distance, and while I respect stablemate #8 RYMSKA, the only two times they’ve tangled, New Money Honey has dispatched her with relative ease. I’m singling last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, and if she doesn’t win, I lose.

The eighth is the Grade 3 Midnight Lute, and while I’m using two of the heavyweights, I also had to throw in a longshot. #4 MASOCHISTIC returns for new trainer Bob Baffert, while #5 AMERICANIZE has developed into a strong one-turn horse for Simon Callaghan. Those two will be tough, but there’s a lot of speed signed on, and because of that, I had to use #6 SOLID WAGER, who should be flying late. He won this race last year, and while he’d be outclassed at six furlongs, this race’s extra sixteenth of a mile works to his benefit. Maybe he’s a bit overmatched on numbers, but given the likely race shape, I had to have him on the ticket.

We’ll finish things off with a claimer on the grass. The two also-eligibles will be tough if they draw in, but that’s no sure bet. Because of that, I’m spreading a bit, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park (12/16/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Greetings from the after party of the 2017 Beemie Awards! I’ve beaten most of the crowd out of the venue, including Vic Stauffer and Andy Asaro, who may still be trading punches on the stage after reluctantly posing together with the Best Fight trophy. While I’m happy for the winners, I’m not over getting snubbed for the Mike Joyce Award for Handicapping Excellence and Bravery given the summer I had at Saratoga.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park is a good one. It’s filled with graded stakes races, and the early races make the preliminary Pick Five very challenging. I’ve got a few multi-race tickets lined up, and I’ll dive into them next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7,11
R2: 1,6,11
R3: 1,7
R4: 4,6,8,10,11,12
R5: 1

108 Bets, $54

I try to keep the cost of my tickets down to around a $40 maximum, but I wanted as much coverage as I could feasibly have. My only single comes on the end, and it’ll be a popular one. If this is too expensive, and you’d like to cut my ticket down to an early Pick Four that starts in the second race, it’s currently an $18 investment (potentially less, but we’ll get to that).

I’m going against a morning line favorite right away. #3 LIGHTHOUSE SOUND is the tepid 7/2 choice, but he hasn’t won in a while and has floundered at this level at Presque Isle. I understand that those races are on synthetic tracks, but I’ll go elsewhere. One of my three is a big price. #11 VIGAS hasn’t run well at Gulfstream Park West and will need to negotiate a trip, but his races at this route from earlier this summer were pretty sharp. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I think he’s a must-use.

The second is a maiden claimer, and this is another race where one of the horses I’m using could be a price. My top pick is #11 LIL BAY CORVETTE, who’s a square 12-1 on the morning line. His trainer is off to a tremendous start to this meet, and the most recent workout was encouraging. She may not need to be much to beat this group, and I need to have her on the ticket.

I was able to narrow things down a bit in the third. #1 WEEZA GONE GRAY was nearly a single for me, as he gets a cushy inside draw and should be the main speed in the race. However, I also needed to use #7 LITTLE BALTAR, who takes a major class drop and has run several sharp races at this route against much better company.

For me, the fourth race was by far the trickiest race of the entire sequence. #13 UNCLE JUNIOR was my top pick, but she didn’t draw in off the AE list. As a result, I’m going six-deep, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough. If you’ve got deeper pockets, this is probably your “ALL” race.

I’m finishing things off by singling #1 CURLIN’S APPROVAL in the Grade 3 Rampart. She returns to her favorite track, and that should make a big difference. The distance isn’t ideal, but her standard race should put her in the winner’s circle, and if that happens, we could be in line for a nice score.

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #7

R7: 1,2,5
R8: 5
R9: 3
R10: 1,2,4,7,9
R11: 2,9,11

45 Bets, $22.50

I usually put together a late Pick Four ticket, but my late Pick Four is pretty affordable. If you want to play my suggested ticket in that sequence, it’s only a $7.50 investment thanks to two singles, and if it hits, it’ll probably be pretty chalky. With that in mind, I’ll suggest a Pick Five.

It starts in the seventh, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl. #1 DEAREST figures to be favored, and for good reason, but I can’t single her given that she’s making her first start since July. I’ll also use #2 MISS HOLLYWOOD (making her first start for Mark Casse) and #5 TRUE ROMANCE (who’s run several strong races against good competition and gets Paco Lopez).

My cold double starts in the eighth, and I think #5 ON LEAVE will be very tough to beat in the Grade 3 My Charmer. She generally runs the same high-quality race every time out, and there are no monsters lining up against her here. She was a solid third in the Grade 2 Goldikova last time out, and those were faster horses than what she’ll go against in this spot.

The ninth is the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday, and this is another spot where I think the favorite will be tough. #3 DESTIN won the Grade 2 Marathon last time out, and he ran into some strong horses last time out in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap. He gets significant class relief, and while I respect the likes of #5 PAGE MCKENNEY and #7 FEAR THE COWBOY, Destin’s best race would mean others would have to improve to beat him.

I’m spreading in the 10th, the Grade 3 Tropical Turf. I’ll use five of the nine horses signed on, and that includes likely favorite #7 BLACKTYPE. I don’t think he’s a cinch, but he’s probably the horse to beat. The horse to bet, however, may be #1 TOWER OF TEXAS, who could get a very fast pace in front of him. If he brings his Woodbine form with him, he could pose a real threat when the field turns for home.

The Saturday finale is a maiden special weight for 2-year-olds going long on the turf. Todd Pletcher saddles #9 HYNDFORD, and that first-time starter will likely be favored. However, I’ll also throw in #2 FORGOTTEN COAST (who has solid two-turn form) and #11 DR. BOMBAY (who’s bred to be a good one and has been working well, but will have to negotiate a trip from the far outside). Hopefully, we can beat a favorite in one of the “spread” races and manage a reasonable return on our investment.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Los Alamitos (12/9/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before we get into my analysis of Saturday’s action at Gulfstream and Los Alamitos, there are a few things that we need to talk about. Firstly, it’s been a tough week for everyone in horse racing. The images and videos that came out of San Luis Rey were positively gut-wrenching, and the work that many have done to assist the humans and horses in need is as admirable as it gets. If you want to assist, Santa Anita and Del Mar have teamed up to raise funds, and you can contribute here.

Secondly, and more relevant to my analysis, you’ll notice there’s only an early Pick Five writeup for Gulfstream’s card. I love that they’re holding a card to highlight the best horses in the Caribbean, especially given the destruction wreaked upon those islands by this past year’s hurricanes. However, due to the relative lack of data, I can’t put forth any sort of tickets on those races.

On to the analysis!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 3,4
R2: 5,6,8,9,10,11
R3: 4
R4: 1,4,8,9
R5: 1,9

96 Bets, $48

Each race in this sequence is a stakes race, and some of the fields are large enough to where this could really pay out. We’ll start off with the Hut Hut for 2-year-old fillies, and I’m two-deep. #3 MY FAVORITE GIFT won by a city block in her debut, while #4 BERNADETTA is bred to go long and beat a good horse (Blonde Bomber) in her unveiling.

I’m spreading in the Wait a While. I understand that #6 STAINLESS may be favored, but her best race came over a very soft, slow turf course at Keeneland, and this isn’t a field comprised of pushovers. Of note, #10 SUBTLE STEP did something few Shug McGaughey trainees can pull off. She won at first asking, and that race’s second-place finisher has since come back to win as well.

My single comes in the third. This is the Buffalo Man, and I’m staking my ticket on #4 DIAMOND OOPS. He won twice over this surface before a lackluster effort in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, where he stumbled at the start and probably never had a chance. He’s worked well since then, and I’m not crazy about the likely favorite, #5 MOJOVATION. He ran a big race in his debut, but that came over a very quirky Saratoga track, and he hasn’t fired the same kind of shot since then.

I’m going four-deep in the fourth, the House Party. My top pick is #9 TAKE CHARGE PAULA, who’s yet to run a bad race going one turn and gets a cushy outside draw, but it’s tough to say if she’ll like Gulfstream or not. I want some coverage, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough.

We’ll be alive to two horses in the fifth, the Smooth Air. I’m pretty sure Todd Pletcher wins this race, as I’ve used two of his three trainees entered in this race. #1 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI bounced back from a horrible run in the Sapling to romp at Gulfstream Park West, while #9 BAL HARBOUR won the Sapling and sports a win over the Gulfstream main track.

LOS ALAMITOS

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,3
R2: ALL
R3: 3,5
R4: 2,4
R5: 4

48 Bets, $24

We’ve got a rarity here, as this Pick Five includes two Grade 1 races. We start off with an optional claimer, and I’m using both horses not entered for the claiming price. #3 INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE will probably be favored, but I actually prefer #2 LA CHEPIS, who was claimed last time out by Keith Desormeaux and is protected in her first start for that outfit.

I’m buying the second race, a starter allowance where the six horses involved have combined for four wins in 45 starts this calendar year. I hate betting horses that show aversions to winning, but one such horse WILL win this race. Since I’ve got the budget to use them all, that’s what I’m doing.

The third race is the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity, and I’m using both Bob Baffert trainees. Of the pair, I prefer #3 SOLOMINI, who may be the bigger price despite his second-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s only been beaten by Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic to this point, and anything above 2-1 strikes me as an overlay.

The fourth is the Grade 1 Starlet, and I’m against morning line favorite #3 DREAM TREE. She does not seem like a two-turn horse to me, and I think we may be able to get a bit of value going against her. #4 WAR HEROINE is my top pick following a sharp debut at Del Mar, while #2 PIEDI BIANCHI exits the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten just two and a half lengths for second money.

My single figures to be a popular one. #4 HOTSY DOTSY is 0-for-14, but she’s run two good races for the level since being claimed by Hector Palma this past summer. She showed improved tactical speed last time out, and given the relative lack of early zip signed on, she could sit a dream trip here. She’s 7/5 on the morning line, and hopefully, she finishes off a profitable ticket for us.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,7
R7: 3,5,6
R8: 1,5,7,10
R9: 2,7,9

72 Bets, $36

I don’t have a single on this ticket, and I found this sequence tricky given the fairly large fields signed on. For that reason, if you hit, you’ll probably be in line for a solid score.

I’m using the two likely favorites to start. #4 FABRICATION returns to his favorite track and gets Tyler Baze, while #7 BIG HUNK takes a big drop in class for a trainer whose horses tend to improve at second asking.

I’m hoping things get a bit more chaotic in the second leg, as I’m not using the 5/2 morning line favorite. #4 HELLUVA CHOICE ships in from the east coast, and we have absolutely no idea how he’ll run against California horses, so I’ll try to beat him. I’m particularly intrigued by #3 ALWAYS NEVER, who ran a very nice race last time out at night over this Los Al track. He sports a recent bullet workout and will likely be the one this field has to run down turning for home.

I thought the eighth was the toughest race in the sequence. #1 PRIME ISSUE will likely be favored, and he’ll certainly be the one they have to run down, but his last two have been bad enough to where I want some coverage alongside him. In particular, while #10 BOLSTER is fast, I don’t think that one needs the lead. He made a middle move last time before flattening out to be third, and that day’s winner has since come back to win. 6-1 is a square price, and I’ll happily take those odds if I can get them.

I’m three-deep in the finale, and the horses I’m using are included with the thought that this race is very likely to collapse. Many horses entered here need the lead in order to win, so I used three that should have something left late. #2 GROUND RULES drops out of a Grade 2 race, while #7 CITY STEEL is a consistent stalking-type and #9 INCENSED has shown an ability to sit behind horses in the past (albeit on turf).

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park (12/2/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is a big day at both Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park. Aqueduct houses a card with four stakes races, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, while Gulfstream Park opens its championship meet with the Claiming Crown program. Both slates are incredibly challenging, and if you hit even one multi-race ticket, chances are you’ll walk away with a profit. Here’s how I’ll attack both cards.

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,3,4,5
R2: 4,5,10
R3: 1
R4: 6,7,10,12
R5: 1,3

96 Bets, $48

I generally don’t like going much over $40 with my tickets, but I felt a need to with both of my stabs at Aqueduct. Even with a single in the middle leg of the Pick Five, it’s not a cheap ticket, but hopefully, we can get this home.

I’m four-deep in the opening leg, and for good reason. #5 BLACK SEA will probably be favored, but he probably wants to go longer, and it’s a bit alarming that he’s in for a claiming tag. I’ll use him, but I want other coverage. Of note, #3 WAR BOND is one of only a few in here that wants this specific distance. His win two back was solid, and he’s attracted Jose Ortiz.

I’m using the three logical horses in the second. Many of these horses haven’t won in a while, so I’ll take one horse second off a layoff (#4 LEAH’S DREAM), a second that makes her second start off the claim for a good barn (#5 FAIR REGIS), and a class-dropper that should appreciate the relief (#10 ANNA RAE).

My single comes in the third, and while it’s partially out of necessity, there’s also a benefit to it. I think both parts of the David Jacobson entry (#1 DOCS LEGACY and #1A ANY QUESTIONS) can win, and I need a single somewhere to keep the cost of my ticket down, so here we go.

I thought the fourth race was fascinating. It’s a turf sprint for state-bred maidens, and while some horses that figure to take money make sense, I also had to include a 15-1 shot. That’s #6 LUNE LAKE, who didn’t break well in her debut for a barn whose horses usually need a race or two to get going. In addition, she’s bred to like the turf, as her second dam, Nicole’s Dream, was a freakish turf sprinter who won multiple stakes races going short on grass. I think she’s a must-use, especially at her likely price.

I’ll hope to finish this off with one of the two favorites in the fifth. #1 FOLLOW THE SIGNS was claimed by a good barn (and from a good barn) following a romp last time out, while #3 MINSKY MOMENT showed an affinity for the turf when a sharp second last time out at Belmont.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 5,9,11,12
R8: 1,3,5
R9: 3,5
R10: 2,5,6,8

96 Bets, $48

We open with a wide-open 2-year-old maiden race. I’m four-deep, and I easily could have gone much deeper. My reluctant top pick is #11 SCATBACK, who ran well enough in two turf sprints at Saratoga earlier this year and gets Javier Castellano, but this race could unfold any number of ways. If you can afford to go deeper, you may want to do that.

The second leg is the Grade 2 Demoiselle. It’s sometimes tough to decipher which 2-year-olds want to go nine furlongs, but I think the morning line man got this one right. #1 DAISY and #3 WONDER GADOT have both looked talented and will be bet, but I also had to use #5 INDY UNION, who’s bred up and down to go long and relished the stretchout at Belmont when romping over maidens in October. She’s by Union Rags and out of an A.P. Indy mare, so two turns should be right up her alley.

I’m two-deep in the Grade 2 Remsen. #3 AVERY ISLAND may be favored and has talent, but if #5 CATHOLIC BOY can transfer his turf form to dirt, he’ll be the one to beat. He encountered some trouble when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and while he probably wasn’t beating Mendelssohn with a clean trip, he could’ve conceivably been second. This is a good spot to take a shot on dirt, and his races have shown that the distance won’t be his undoing.

The Cigar Mile is the main event, and it doubles as the payoff leg of the sequence. I came into the race thinking the two main contenders were #6 SHARP AZTECA and #8 PRACTICAL JOKE, but upon further review, I had to use two others as well. #2 SEYMOURDINI had a nightmare trip in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler and should improve second off the layoff, and #5 AMERICANIZE has not finished worse than second in eight races he’s finished. That one was an impressive winner of the Damascus Stakes, and when Simon Callaghan gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there. At 12-1, I need him on my ticket.

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 3,4,5
R2: 6,7,10
R3: 6
R4: 2,8,11,12
R5: 1,5

72 Bets, $36

And there we go with the antics (hi, Pete!). This Pick Five struck me as the hardest sequence to decipher among both cards I looked at, and if there’s any consolation, it’s that Gulfstream has a 4-of-5 payout in this sequence.

The meet opener is a turf race for maidens, and I’m going three-deep. My top pick is #5 REALLY PROUD, who took a step forward at second asking last time out. She showed tactical speed and has worked well since then, so more improvement could be in the cards.

I’m also three-deep in the second leg. #6 MENDED ships east and is going for her 10th consecutive win. Her two recent dirt races were just fine, but 2-1 seems awfully short in such a big field. I’ll also use #7 DELUSIONAL K K, who’s won two of her last three, and #10 AMALUNA, who does her best running here and was impressive at this route two back.

I’ve got a “separator single” in the third leg. I know I’m supposed to like the Todd Pletcher tandem of #3 HYNDFORD and #9 ANIMAL KINGSTON, but if one was the goods, why are two entered in the same spot? I’m taking a swing with a 10-1 first-time starter that’s bred to be talented. #6 THE ROBERT has been working well at Churchill Downs and is a half-brother to four winners. Trainer Eddie Kenneally can win with first-time starters, and I’m not overly impressed with the horses that have run before. If this horse wins, we’ll be alive to a nice, nice score.

I’m four-deep in the fourth, a race with plenty of early speed signed on. While speed is usually good at Gulfstream, I had to throw in 15-1 shot #11 EXPRESS JET just in case the race falls apart. Toss the races contested over a wet track, and this closer looks much, much better.

If we’re alive into the fifth, we’ll be two-deep there. #1 BLUE BAHIA is ultra-consistent and has never been better, while #5 EILA loves Gulfstream and returns to her favorite track. Her recent form hasn’t been great, but Gulfstream is a far different turf course than Aqueduct, and she could relish her familiar stomping grounds.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 4,7,12
R9: 5,9,10,11,12
R10: 4
R11: 5,6,7,11

60 Bets, $30

The late Pick Four kicks off with the Rapid Transit. #4 SHAFT OF LIGHT won this race by daylight last time out, and he merits respect. However, #7 MANHATTAN MISCHIEF has plenty of early speed and could keep him company early. I’m using both speed horses, and, in the event the race breaks down, I’m also using #12 COXSWAIN, a 20-1 shot that loves this track and should be flying late.

The ninth is a wide-open turf race, and I’m five-deep. #9 STARSHIP JUBILEE has been racing against much better at Woodbine and could win, but Woodbine form sometimes doesn’t translate elsewhere. She won here a few times earlier in the year, but this isn’t an easy field, and if she doesn’t win, I don’t know who does, so I went deep.

I took a completely different approach in the 10th. #4 BLACK TIDE has one way of going. He’ll go to the front, open up, and lead for as long as he can. This race doesn’t have much other quality speed signed on, so he could sit a picture-perfect trip on a track that often plays kindly to early speed. As such, he’s a single for me.

I’ll go four-deep to finish things off. #6 GIGANTIC BREEZE won a Grade 2 at Woodbine last time out, and if his form translates to dirt, he’ll definitely be the one to beat. However, I’m also using a few prices, and if one of them gets home, we’ll get paid off in a big way.