SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 31st, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,758.75

The worst sound at a racetrack is silence. Specifically, it’s the hushed silence that comes as a crowd digests a traumatic breakdown occurring right in front of the grandstand. Saratoga experienced that twice on big days last year, when Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder suffered catastrophic injuries.

Unfortunately, after a meet that had been free of such incidents until Friday afternoon, it happened again in the Saranac. The Big Torpedo and Take Me To Church went down less than a furlong from the wire. That hushed silence extended to the backyard, where seasoned bettors, novices, and children exchanged wordless glances because…well, because what do you say after something like that?

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I lost $35. Others lost far more than that, and to them I extend my condolences.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to keep things very simple. I love #9 BRIGHTWORK in the 10th, and I’ll have a $100 win ticket (by far my biggest win bet of the meet) in the Grade 3 Prioress.

TOTAL WAGERED: $100.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Brightwork, Race 10
Longshot: Our Country, Race 13

R1

Printer’s Alley
Friday Surprise
Bernie Goes Boom

#4 PRINTER’S ALLEY (6/5): Comes into his unveiling with a fantastic string of works for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He sold for just $32,000 at auction earlier this year, but his bottom-side pedigree includes a third dam that threw several real runners, and he may have grown out of whatever issues he had in April; #3 FRIDAY SURPRISE (5/2): Has run second twice in as many starts to date, but may have bounced a bit last time out after a very solid debut. He’s got an experience edge over many other contenders and may still have a right to improve; #9 BERNIE GOES BOOM (8-1): Draws a cushy outside post in his debut and has been working steadily for a very capable barn that doesn’t saddle a ton of horses. This outfit, however, merits respect when it shows up, and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride.

R2

Authentic Gallop
Statesman
Academy

#2 AUTHENTIC GALLOP (8-1): Set a solid pace in his debut and adds blinkers at second asking for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s kin to several very solid routers, including Ami’s Gizmo, who won a Grade 3 over a synthetic surface during his career; #6 STATESMAN (9/2): Debuted with a third-place finish out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t a route some horses enjoy. His dam excelled on both turf and dirt, and he’s a half-brother to Grade 2 turf winner Fashion Business; #11 ACADEMY (6-1): Probably never had a chance in his debut, when he was well behind and raced wide for a trainer whose runners often need a race or two to get going. The blinkers go on, and I think improvement is logical if he draws in off of the AE list.

R3

Tall Paul (MTO)
Nano Man
Street Rod

#7 NANO MAN (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out and faces winners for the first time. Sometimes, that’s a significant step up, but this race features many that have been at this level for quite a while. Add in that he’s run two very good races at this route in as many local starts, and I think he’s well-meant; #1 STREET ROD (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since January, when he topped open company in a turf sprint at Gulfstream. He’s clearly had some issues, but that was a swiftly-run race, and I think he’s a major player if he’s ready to go off the bench; #3 TWISTED FILIGREE (3-1): Ran a big one two back off of a very long layoff and clearly hated the dirt last time out. Improvement going back to his preferred surface is clearly logical; the question is, can he last through an early pace that figures to be hotly-contested?

R4

Forced Errors
Confabulation
Yingle Bells

#9 FORCED ERRORS (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and drops way down the class ladder. His debut at Churchill was a solid race, he draws favorably for this one, and a win here would be a popular one due to the presence of trainer Nick Zito; #7 CONFABULATION (5/2): Ran a clunker in his debut and is another dropping in class for aggressive connections. He was shipped to Monmouth after that race, and while that’s not necessarily a disqualifying factor for runners from the Chad Brown barn anymore, that and the class drop certainly make me think there isn’t a lot of confidence here; #1 YINGLE BELLS (15-1): Has shown some speed twice in as many starts and goes second off the bench in this spot. The rider switch is a curious one, and I’m expecting this filly to be prominent from the jump at a price.

R5

Federal Judge
Accretive
Pro Oxidant

#5 FEDERAL JUDGE (2-1): Did everything but win last time out in his first start since June of 2023. He set a very solid pace that day going a bit longer and settled for second. He’s since fired a five-furlong bullet drill across the street, and I’m expecting a step forward for high-percentage connections; #6 ACCRETIVE (9/5): Has some back class and certainly merits respect for the meet’s leading trainer and jockey. However, he hasn’t won in quite a while, and while he has excuses for losses against the likes of Baby Yoda and Scotland, no wins in nearly a year makes this gelding’s short price tough to swallow; #8 PRO OXIDANT (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker and an owner actively gunning for the meet’s owner’s title. He’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, and the outside draw should give jockey Ramon Vazquez plenty of options.

R6

Brindi
Scarlet Sands
Tam I Am

#6 BRINDI (5/2): Had some issues at the start in her debut but still salvaged a third-place finish behind a well-meant filly. Her experience edge is a plus, and I’m expecting improvement at second asking for a top-tier barn; #1 SCARLET SANDS (5-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and is bred to be a runner. She’s kin to five winners, and her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1 winner Tara’s Tango and graded stakes-winning turders Scarlet Fusion and Scarlet Strike; #9 TAM I AM (6-1): Sports a very solid turf drill on her tab and may be one to watch. She hammered for $300,000 last year, and while the Todd Pletcher barn doesn’t have a great clip with first-out turf horses, the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., may be a clue.

R7

Zadorsky
Cara’s Time
Theresasilverlinin

#4 ZADORSKY (5/2): Has run well here twice, including a last-out second at this level and route. This isn’t a bad group, to be sure, but Luis Saez sees fit to ride back and she’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #5 CARA’S TIME (7/2): Has some back class as a veteran of state-bred stakes races and goes third off the bench here. Her lone start at this seven-furlong distance was a win in one of those events last year, and a repeat of her two-back effort would give her a big shot; #1 THERESASILVERLININ (9/2): Got a strange ride last time out, when she was taken back off the pace and never had a chance. That may explain the rider switch, and from the rail, I think trainer instructions are pretty clear: Get out quickly and go as fast as you can, as long as you can.

R8

Tap Into This
Capricious Outcome
Our Favorite Son

#3 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): Debuted with a solid second at Churchill Downs and is bred to love added distance, which he gets at second asking. I love the Steve Asmussen work pattern where a strong two-back drill is followed up by a maintenance move, and that exists here; #7 CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME (9/2): Comes in with a series of very strong half-mile drills for Chad Brown, and this son of Practical Joke has a right to be precocious. There isn’t much bottom-side pedigree here, which is a bit unusual, but it’s also possible this first-time starter is set to outrun his bloodlines; #9 OUR FAVORITE SON (8-1): Makes his first start for Phil Bauer, whose horses have consistently run very well here this summer. It’s tough to debut going seven furlongs, but if recent works are any indication, he may be talented enough to overcome that hurdle.

R9

Summer Cause (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Laurel Valley

#5 UNLEASH THE POWER (6-1): Rallied from ninth to get the money last time out, and he’s yet to run a bad one in three starts this season. He’s a closer that may need a fair bit to go right, but there’s plenty of early speed in here (at least on paper) and I think he’s got a big chance at a second win in a row; #10 LAUREL VALLEY (8-1): Got a very, very strange ride here a few weeks ago, when he was inexplicably rated off the pace and never had a chance. I expect Irad Ortiz, Jr., to be much more aggressive here, and of the speed horses, this is the one I think has the most chance to run a winning race; #1 MCCULLOUGH (10-1): Came back running off the bench last time out, when he graduated in his turf debut (and his first start since February of 2023). Facing winners for the first time isn’t an easy ask, but it’s also possible he’s sitting on a step forward at a generous price for this top-tier barn.

R10

Brightwork
Two Sharp
Autumn Evening

#9 BRIGHTWORK (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 1 Spinaway and would’ve been a contender in the Grade 1 Test, but she acted up in the paddock and was scratched. Judging by the two-back bullet drill, that didn’t affect her much. I love the outside draw, I think she’s ready to go, and the morning line price in the Grade 3 Prioress hits me as a significant overlay; #7 TWO SHARP (7/5): Romped by 11 lengths last time out and takes an ambitious step up in class here. That win was over maidens, and this is a much tougher spot. It’s possible she’s a freak, but at her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against; #2 AUTUMN EVENING (10-1): Didn’t break well in the Grade 3 Victory Ride and finished fourth behind the Test runner-up and two next-out winners. A smooth break likely puts her on or near the lead, and a repeat of her two or three-back efforts downstate would give her a chance at a piece of this.

R11

Quietside
Pondering
The Queens M G

#11 QUIETSIDE (3-1): Rolled home in her debut and has been working well since that outing ahead of the Grade 1 Spinaway. Luis Saez rides back for an outfit that could have a big afternoon, and while this is a competitive race, she hits me as a legitimate favorite; #7 PONDERING (6-1): Won her debut in professional fashion at Ellis Park and is bred to improve with the added distance she gets here. The two-back work here was a very good one, and this is a patient barn whose horses tend to improve with experience; #8 THE QUEENS M G (7/2): Goes for a third stakes win of the meet, and it’s awesome to see a horse run in all three in an era where thoroughbreds just don’t run all that much. This is a tougher field than the ones she’s dispatched in those prior starts, but she’s got plenty of tactical speed and is clearly thriving in upstate New York.

R12

War Like Goddess
McKulick
Parnac

#1 WAR LIKE GODDESS (7/5): Looms large in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl, contested at a distance where she’s run some of her best races. The inside post allows for a ground-saving trip, and Junior Alvarado’s gotten several very strong efforts out of her since earning the mount late last year; #7 MCKULICK (3-1): Is the other horse that will take plenty of money off of an easy score in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. She’s never run a bad race over this turf course, and she may have enough tactical speed to sit closer to the pace than she was last time out; #3 PARNAC (12-1): Was second in the Glens Falls and may have moved a bit too soon that day (though she probably was never beating the winner). She won this race a year ago in wire-to-wire fashion, and she’s never been worse than second in three local outings.

R13

Our Country
Jhirsch
Mr. Mendelssohn

#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in a mess of a Saturday finale. He may have needed his last-out effort, but was still only beaten less than three lengths despite going through some trouble. The potential to improve he has here, combined with the likely race shape, makes him an appealing value play; #6 JHIRSCH (5-1): Was third last time out behind a runner I like quite a bit earlier in the program. This seems like a weaker spot than the one he exits, and some of his two-turn turf route efforts stack up pretty favorably; #5 MR. MENDELSSOHN (15-1): Ran sixth in a pretty tough starter allowance back in June and adds blinkers in this outing. He was probably left with too much to do that day, and I’m expecting him to show some more early zip here at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 30th, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,793.75

My day job sees me serve as Senior Editor of Winners and Whiners. Bless their hearts, the people there like me, and I’ll be doing more stuff this coming NFL season.

If you’re in a NFL survivor/eliminator pool, we’ll have a show on the Winners and Whiners YouTube channel that you won’t want to miss. Join Scott Steehn and me for weekly analysis and contest strategy ahead of each slate of games.

We’ll also be running a survivor pool ourselves, with a couple of different rewards up for grabs. The link to join that is in the description of yesterday’s announcement video, and I hope to see you all there!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Chateau stopped badly late in the eighth, and I dropped $22 after scratches.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Most of my stronger opinions come too late in the day, deadline-wise, so I need to get a bit creative. I’ll focus on the sixth, the Saranac. #3 TAKE ME TO CHURCH is my top pick there after some sharp races in Europe. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, as well as $5 doubles starting there singling him and finishing with #1 ANOTHER CLEESHAY and #11 MELLE MEL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Candi Girl, Race 11
Longshot: Charles J, Race 12

R1

I Got Game (MTO)
Incanto
Gate to Wire

#7 INCANTO (3-1): Was a close-up fifth in his debut, which came in the loaded Royal Palm at Gulfstream (a race that awards the winner a free trip to Royal Ascot). He was beaten less than two lengths that day, and a few strong local drills hint that he could be even better with a start under his belt; #8 GATE TO WIRE (2-1): Debuts for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and will have Irad Ortiz, Jr., in the irons. His bottom-side pedigree includes plenty of top-notch turf bloodlines, but despite a few sharp drills, I’m not convinced this 5 1/2-furlong trip provides enough ground; #3 TIZ DASHING (5-1): Debuts for Barclay Tagg, which usually means a firster needs a race, but his work tab is very strong and Flavien Prat signs on to ride. His bottom-side pedigree is all-turf, but this is another instance of a talented horse that may want to go a bit further.

R2

Iron Max
Shoot the Waves
Scythian

#2 IRON MAX (7/2): Came with a frenetic rush last time out and was beaten just a neck in a race out of the Wilson chute. Turf is almost certainly what he wants given his pedigree, and he showed last time out that the distance here should not be an issue; #5 SHOOT THE WAVES (15-1): Lost all chance at the break last time out and merits a long look stretching out to two turns. He’s by Kitten’s Joy, out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare, and runs for Mike Maker, whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going; #1 SCYTHIAN (3-1): Debuted running third in a dirt sprint and is a candidate to improve with experience and distance. Dam Dean Henry won a two-turn stakes race, and all five prior foals to race are winners.

R3

Neural Network
Mighty Atlas
Bossmakinbossmoves

#3 NEURAL NETWORK (3-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort given a layoff of more than a year. He was a stakes horse before going to the sidelines, and he’s got some tactical speed in a two-turn race that seems very, very light on it; #4 MIGHTY ATLAS (2-1): Won two and three back before finishing a non-threatening fourth last time out. He’s got the ability to win if he can channel the early-2024 form, but the likely price seems like an underlay given his plodding style, one that doesn’t necessarily fit the chute; #1 BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES (9/2): Draws a tricky post but loves this surface and exits a win by a neck over a next-out winner. This is probably a tougher spot, but David Jacobson can move horses forward and his prior races at the Spa are some of the best efforts of his career.

R4

Dillinger
Show Time
Rice entry

#4 DILLINGER (2-1): Has run well twice at this meet and has some versatility to him. He can go early or sit back and make one run, and Manny Franco got to know him a bit last time out, when he was a close-up second against similar a few weeks ago; #7 SHOW TIME (9/5): Ships in from Churchill Downs, where he cleared his non-winners-of-two condition in a swiftly-run race for the level. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but he looked sharp doing it and he’ll have a big chance in his local debut; RICE ENTRY (5/2): Like most, I imagine, I prefer #1A TOMMY TWO SOCKS, who got up in the last jump of an off-the-turf race and gets wheeled back in last than two weeks. Flavien Prat will be in the irons here, and he’d benefit from any sort of speed duel early.

R5

Pitch Clock
Backstretch Rose
Pam Pam

#2 PITCH CLOCK (7/5): Drops in for a tag after running against much better horses to this point in her career. She’s shown speed against these groups, and that’s a very powerful asset in races that come out of the Wilson chute; #1 BACKSTRETCH ROSE (5/2): Has a tricky inside draw, but she ran well to be second at this level and route a few weeks ago despite a slow break. I think she’ll once again drop to the back of the field, and while she may have a lot to do late, there’s certainly plenty of speed signed on for her to chase; #5 PAM PAM (4-1): Has run well twice at Ellis Park, which has a similar one-mile chute to Saratoga. Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here for a barn that doesn’t run many at the Spa but means business when it shows up.

R6

Take Me To Church
West Hollywood
The Big Torpedo

#3 TAKE ME TO CHURCH (7/2): Makes his first US start after running in some big spots overseas. He was fifth in the Group 1 Irish 2,000 Guineas, and the top two finishers from that race came right back to win at next asking. If he’s ready to run, he’s got a big chance in the Grade 3 Saranac; #1 WEST HOLLYWOOD (2-1): Topped winners last time out and steps up into the stakes ranks. He seems like a late-blooming 3-year-old, and the main issue here isn’t his talent, but the lack of Lasix, which he’s run on in all three US outings to date; #5 THE BIG TORPEDO (5/2): Hasn’t looked like a loser at any point in his last two starts against New York-breds. His connections bypassed a stakes race last weekend to run here, which hints at confidence, and he figures to be prominent from the jump.

R7

Melle Mel
Another Cleeshay
Cantafio

#11 MELLE MEL (3-1): Needs a scratch to run but looms large if she draws in off of the AE list. She gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., for a barn whose runners tend to improve with experience, and she may not need to move forward much in order to beat these; #1 ANOTHER CLEESHAY (6-1): Draws a tricky post in her debut, but she’s been training very well ahead of her unveiling. There’s plenty of bottom-side pedigree stemming from blue hen third dam Shopping, and this filly could provide some value at her likely price; #12 CANTAFIO (7/2): Didn’t break well in her debut at Monmouth and certainly has a right to improve. Like my top pick, she needs some luck to draw in, but merits respect if she’s able to run.

R8

Leon Blue
Orie
National Archive

#11 LEON BLUE (3-1): Debuted with a strong second in what’s turned out to be a key race. The winner came back to win a stakes race, the third-place finisher earned the diploma last time out, and I’m expecting a step forward from this one here if he draws in off the AE list; #4 ORIE (9/2): Ran fairly well to be fourth at first asking despite a bit of trouble at the start. Blinkers go on a horse that should improve with distance and experience, and the rider switch to Javier Castellano is a notable one; #2 NATIONAL ARCHIVE (7/2): Is one of several first-time starters in here that could be well-meant. She runs against the boys in this spot for trainer Christophe Clement, and this daughter of Constitution and a Quality Road mare has a right to love this route.

R9

Off Script
Early On
Hill entry

#10 OFF SCRIPT (7/5): Didn’t break well in her debut and had every right to spit the bit, but she rallied to finish second behind a next-out stakes winner. It’s safe to assume she learned plenty in her unveiling, and the cushy outside draw is another big plus; #7 EARLY ON (3-1): Has a lot in common with my top pick given her first-out trip. She also didn’t break well, yet came on late to salvage a check. She’s since switched barns to Saffie Joseph, and his runners have been firing all summer long; HILL ENTRY (6-1): #1 MOONLIGHT GAL is the one I prefer. She sold for $125,000 last summer and has a recent bullet drill on her tab. Her dam’s two prior foals to race are winners, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she’s ready to run right away.

R10

Cool Operator
Chileno
Watasha

#7 COOL OPERATOR (8-1): Is the bigger-priced Linda Rice trainee, but this is the one I prefer. Two turns was a bit too far for him last time, when he stopped badly behind eventual Curlin winner Unmatched Wisdom. This is a much softer spot, and I think he could be the one to catch in this race out of the Wilson chute; #1 CHILENO (6/5): Could be a pretty heavy favorite in his first start since March, and there’s plenty of logic behind that. He’s run well at this route before, and his best race could win again, but this isn’t a short break he’s returning from and he may not have the early speed necessary to work out a trip from the inside post; #2 WATASHA (12-1): Is protected in his first start since November, and I love it when trainers do that. This hints they don’t want to lose a talented horse, and he got pretty good late last year before going to the sidelines. A return to that form gives him a shot at a square price.

R11

Roman Goddess (MTO)
Candi Girl
U Should B Dancing

#5 CANDI GIRL (9/2): Ships in from Presque Isle, where she may have needed her last-out effort off of a seven-month break. Still, she was beaten just a head, and this is a horse that contested a pair of stakes races a season ago. I’m not sure we’ll get the morning line price, which seems like a significant overlay; #1 U SHOULD B DANCING (4-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but has shown she loves this route. She’s run second twice in as many local turf sprints this summer, and she’s hit the board five times in six outings at the Spa; #10 LINARITE (6-1): Is impossible to endorse on top, but is also impossible to ignore if you’re playing vertical exotics. She makes her fourth start of the summer in this one and figures to be rolling late for a barn that, well, has gotten rolling late in the meet.

R12

Charles J
Six Fortyfive
Sebastianthe First

#5 CHARLES J (10-1): Gets a tepid top pick in very tough Friday finale. Unlike many others in here, he’s shown an ability to pass horses late. The additions of Lasix and Flavien Prat should help, and given my lack of a true strong opinion, I at least think this one will outrun his odds; #10 SIX FORTYFIVE (6-1): Ran well enough two back to merit a try against stakes foes last time out. That didn’t go so well, but the class relief here should help, and he might be talented enough to overcome the tough outside draw; #9 SEBASTIANTHE FIRST (6-1): Was a distant second behind an impressive winner last time out, and neither of his two turf routes have been poor efforts. Luis Saez will be in the saddle again, and a repeat of the last-out effort would put him right there.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 29th, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,815.75

The Jockey Club Gold Cup was drawn Wednesday and will be run Sunday. For a very long time, it was the handicap division’s premier race, and its move to the back end of the Saratoga meet was made, in part, to preserve its top-end status.

To the race’s credit, it drew Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride, as well as familiar faces Tapit Trice, Bright Future, and Disarm. One glaring absence from the Gold Cup, though, is Next. The country’s premier marathoner will bypass the event and instead target a race at Parx next month.

I can understand some aspects of the decision. Next will be an overwhelming favorite in that race, and, for that matter, any other event where he goes an ultra-long distance of ground. However, decisions like that make me appreciate ones like the call made by Ken McPeek, who took a shot with Thorpedo Anna in the Travers and gave fans of the sport a fantastic memory.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Giroovin ran very well having to close into a pace that turned out to be much, much slower than many handicappers (self included) figured it would be. Unfortunately, that was only good enough to finish fourth. After scratches, I dropped $35.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll try to extract some value out of #1 CHATEAU in the eighth. He’ll be bet heavily in the win pools, so I’ll focus on multi-race exotics. He’s a single in $6 doubles that start in the seventh with #4 VINTAGE VINO and #8 ACT OF MUTINY, as well as doubles for that value that end in the ninth with #1 JAA MODE and #6 SKYLER’S STARSHIP. I’ll also use all of these horses in a $2 Pick Three, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: She Caught My Eye, Race 2
Longshot: Jackson’s Dixie, Race 5

R1

Jus Too Fly
Correlation
Papa’s Nico Boy

#5 JUS TOO FLY (7/2): Debuted with a second-place finish at Laurel and has several reasons to improve in the Thursday opener. His pedigree says he’ll love the turf, and this barn’s horses tend to get better with experience; #8 CORRELATION (5/2): Set a fast pace in his unveiling at Ellis Park and has since been moved to the barn of Mike Maker. A step forward makes him a player, though I’m a bit skeptical turf is truly what he wants; #9 PAPA’S NICO BOY (8-1): Is another bred to relish the turf and could pose a threat to run well on debut. His bloodlines hint he wants a bit more distance than today’s 5 1/2-furlong route, but the cushy outside post is certainly a plus.

R2

She Caught My Eye
Anotherdaygoneby
Mon Petit Chou

#3 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE (3-1): Drops in for a tag after more than a year of running against allowance foes, and that class advantage is a substantial one. She draws well for Linda Rice second off the bench, and I’m expecting significant improvement from her most recent effort; #2 ANOTHERDAYGONEBY (7/2): Rallied to top weaker foes in a $10,000 claimer last month, and while this is certainly a tougher spot, she’s in good form with four wins in seven starts this season. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown and should be going the right way late; #4 MON PETIT CHOU (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while and has run second twice in as many starts at this stand. She’s impossible to endorse on top given the drought, but she does like Saratoga and has some value on the bottom of vertical exotics tickets.

R3

Evaluation
Sweet Anniversary
Nolita

#1 EVALUATION (1-1): Debuted with a solid, professional score earlier this month and faces winners for the first time. That day’s runner-up was an impressive winner on Travers Day, and those two were well, well clear of the rest of the group; #7 SWEET ANNIVERSARY (4-1): Ships to Saratoga after a pair of wins at Finger Lakes. This is certainly a class test, but her two recent works here are sharp and she certainly hasn’t done anything wrong to this point; #5 NOLITA (9/2): Hasn’t run in nearly a year, but put forth a few solid efforts last summer before going to the sidelines. She’s been working steadily for Bill Mott, whose numbers with comebackers are very strong.

R4

Sandborn
Mr Flowers
Hurricane Express

#5 SANDBORN (4-1): Improved last time out to run second at this level and route. He was a bit wide throughout in that event, and further improvement plus a clean trip would give him a big shot in this wide-open maiden claimer; #2 MR FLOWERS (8-1): Ships up from Laurel after running second to a next-out winner at this distance in late-July. He’s got some speed, which should help, and this barn has quietly put together a very strong meet; #1 HURRICANE EXPRESS (5-1): Adds blinkers second off the bench for Chad Brown after finishing a length behind my top pick last time out. Irad Ortiz, Jr., goes elsewhere, but Dylan Davis hops aboard, and he’s enjoyed a head-turning summer while establishing himself as one of the better riders on the New York circuit.

R5

Shesalittle Edgy
Jackson’s Dixie
Malibu Moonshine

#8 SHESALITTLE EDGY (8/5): Exits a win at this level last month and hasn’t run a bad race all season long to this point. I came into this race wanting to go against her, but it’s not like this field is much better than the one she beat last time, and a similar effort likely means a similar outcome; #9 JACKSON’S DIXIE (12-1): Takes a significant drop in class to run against claimers for the first time since December. She’s beaten allowance or optional claiming foes three times since then, and while her last few starts haven’t been great, you don’t have to go back far to find efforts that would give her a big chance in here at a square price; #6 MALIBU MOONSHINE (9/2): Is another taking a considerable class drop off of a few underwhelming efforts. She’s won three stakes races, and while she may be better over wet tracks than fast ones, I think the cutback in distance will help her, and any sort of duel up front could set things up for her late kick.

R6

Contrabandist
T Kraft
Noble Confessor

#7 CONTRABANDIST (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden race out of the Wilson chute (unproven 2-year-olds at a quirky route? Send help!!!). He was fourth behind the ultra-impressive Ferocious last time out and has a pedigree that says he wants more distance, which he gets at second asking; #9 T KRAFT (3-1): Did a lot of the dirty work last time out before being reeled in in that race’s final yards. The far outside post is a big problem, but it’s not a disqualifying factor for horses fast enough to clear the field, and this one may fit that bill; #8 NOBLE CONFESSOR (2-1): Was third behind my second choice in his debut and is bred to improve with distance and experience. My question, though, is this: If this one’s so well-meant, why does Todd Pletcher also saddle my top selection in the same race?

R7

Military Road (MTO)
Vintage Vino
Act of Mutiny

#4 VINTAGE VINO (9/2): Ran well to be a close-up second last time out going longer, and that day’s winner came right back to beat first-level allowance foes. We know this distance won’t be too much for him, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #8 ACT OF MUTINY (5-1): Has run just once since October, but his two turf races a season ago were both solid. The two-back bullet drill hints that he’s ready to go, and if he is, a repeat of either his two-back or three-back efforts would put him right there; #9 INHERENT PROMISE (4-1): Has run four solid races since going to the barn of Lisa Lewis, who doesn’t train many horses but is a very, very capable conditioner. Most recently, he was a close-up second at this level and route in mid-July, and his usual effort gives him a chance in another wide-open turf race.

R8

Flying P entry
Hatch
Charging Aero

FLYING P ENTRY (8/5): #1 CHATEAU has a very simple strategy. He goes to the front and holds on as long as he can, and that works pretty well in races that are otherwise light on early zip. That seems to be the case here, and I think it’s likely he forgets to stop; #3 HATCH (4-1): Makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. He may not have liked the slop last time out, and a return to the form he showed two starts ago would make him a contender; #9 CHARGING AERO (6-1): Won against similar last time out after jockey Luis Rivera kept him a bit closer to the pace. He doesn’t need the lead, by any means, but I think he’ll sit a stalking trip and have every chance when the real running starts.

R9

Skyler’s Starship
Jaa Mode
Merlin’s Moment

#6 SKYLER’S STARSHIP (9/2): Finished third behind the 1-2 finishers in the Albany two back in the New York Derby, then got a very, very strange ride as a 1/5 favorite and was off the board. I have no idea what happened that day, but I’m willing to give him a pass, and I think he’ll be the one they have to catch; #1 JAA MODE (3-1): Was second last time out at this level going two turns, but draws a tricky rail post in this Wilson chute event. His best race could win, for sure, but I thought his trip last time out was a perfect one, and I don’t love backing short-priced horses who couldn’t turn previous perfect trips into wins; #4 MERLIN’S MOMENT (8-1): Didn’t break well in the New York Derby and had an adventurous trip in a race prior to that one. His early-2024 races, though, weren’t bad at all, and I think he’s got a shot to surprise in a race that, by the way, I truly wish was being run at a two-turn route (more starts in front of fans, please!).

R10

Zulu Kingdom
Without Caution
Reach for the Rose

#7 ZULU KINGDOM (4-1): Makes her US debut for Chad Brown after a first-out stakes score in France. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win, and this one’s August 12th work over the Oklahoma turf course was very sharp. He looks every bit the one to beat in the Grade 3 With Anticipation; #2 WITHOUT CAUTION (7/2): Did everything right in his debut, where he stalked, pounced, and won at odds of 13-1. This barn has cooled off a bit after a scorching start to the meet, but the outfit still has 17 in-the-money finishes in 28 starts and looks live with this one; #6 REACH FOR THE ROSE (5-1): Debuted with a second-place finish in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream, then jogged home well clear in an off-the-turf race out of the chute. Judging by the aggressive debut spot, it’s clear this barn has had high hopes for this colt for quite a while, and he showed the distance won’t be what beats him in his last-out score.

R11

Creditworthy
Time and Tide
Speed Figures

#2 CREDITWORTHY (8/5): Looks strictly the one to beat in the Thursday finale and will likely be a popular multi-race exotics single. He was a fast-closing second in his debut downstate, a race he’d have likely won without having to check on the backstretch; #10 TIME AND TIDE (9/2): Debuts for a very patient outfit that doesn’t win with many first-time starters. However, this colt has been working up a storm in the mornings, and he’s bred to be a very strong turf horse. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and as far as alternatives to a heavy favorite go, there’s plenty to like here; #6 SPEED FIGURES (5-1): Showed speed in his debut, which came in an off-the-turf event at the beginning of the month. The presence of broodmare sire Candy Ride says he may be better on turf than dirt, and the recent bullet drill across the street indicates a step forward could be in the offing.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 28th, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,850.75

It’s been a bit since I wrote about a problem in hopes someone in the industry who has the power to do something about it reads my content. Wednesday, unfortunately, is one of those days.

If you get your past performances from TwinSpires or Brisnet, their forms do not include the complete race histories for some steeplechase horses that have raced at certain overseas venues. If you’re handicapping races like today’s opener by using these materials, that means you need to cross-check multiple different data sources to get all of the relevant information.

It’s pretty ridiculous to have to jump through these hoops, and this is not the first time it’s happened at the meet. Brisnet PP’s for Jonathan Sheppard favorite Zarak the Brave, for instance, were incomplete every time he was entered throughout the summer. I only found that out early because an old friend/a heck of a writer and editor reached out and let me know what I saw wasn’t the full story.

Perhaps it’s overly idealistic of me to believe this, but anything that’s a barrier to players having access to what they need should not exist. Brisnet, please fix this by the time next summer’s Saratoga meet rolls around.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of most of my action, but longshot She Takes Cash gave me a big thrill in the seventh, when she hit the top of the stretch in front. Unfortunately, she faded to fourth and I dropped $16.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the fourth, which I think is very heavy on early speed. I want a closer, and I’m betting #6 GIROOVIN. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and he’ll start $5 doubles that end with #8 ENGLISH CASTLE and #11 FILM ACADEMY in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Thankfully, Race 6
Longshot: Giroovin, Race 4

R1

Hold Hard
Kitten Around
Little Trilby

#7 HOLD HARD (3-1): Comes into the Michael Walsh off of back-to-back victories, and the most recent win has aged well. That race has produced three next-out winners, and it sure seems like this one is coming into his own as a 5-year-old; #5 KITTEN AROUND (6-1): Topped winners in a handicap event last month at Colonial, and that day’s third-place finisher won at next asking. Keri Brion has enjoyed plenty of success at this stand, and I think her barn is live here; #6 LITTLE TRILBY (5-1): Makes his U.S. debut after an easy score in Ireland where he won by 11 lengths. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but he looked pretty sharp doing it, and he gets weight from several rivals in his first stateside start.

R2

Reserve Currency
Fromanothamutha
Sun Thunder

#6 RESERVE CURRENCY (3-1): Has won two in a row and three of his last four, including a last-out score at this route. He won as much the best that day, and when Mike Maker gets horses going the right way, they tend to stay there; #2 FROMANOTHAMUTHA (9/2): Was second in an off-the-turf event at this level and route a few weeks ago and looks like the main speed in here. While he’s not exactly a “win-type,” with four wins and nine seconds, he generally runs the same race every time and may be the one to catch; #4 SUN THUNDER (2-1): Ran in last year’s Kentucky Derby, but has spent most of this year burning money in first-level allowance races like this one. His best race gives him a chance to break through, I suppose, but the likely price on this 1-for-13 runner hits me as a considerable underlay.

R3

Big Ego
Concorde Spirit
Stormy’s Dreaming

#3 BIG EGO (7/2): Steps up in class for Linda Rice first off the claim, and she’s known to be aggressive with new acquisitions she likes. He was last seen running second at this route in June, and of the horses that have gone this far before, he’s the only one that’s shown any early speed; #8 CONCORDE SPIRIT (9/2): Stretches out after two sprints, and while the post position isn’t ideal, his pedigree says he’ll love the added ground. If Junior Alvarado can work out a trip, he may be the one to hold off late; #2 STORMY’S DREAMING (8-1): Is another stretching out, but Flavien Prat shows up to ride for a small barn, and that’s always encouraging. His plodding style hints the extra quarter-mile may suit him, and he’ll likely offer some value at a bit of a price.

R4

Giroovin
Poppy’s Pride
Cees Get Degrees

#6 GIROOVIN (8-1): Is a pace play for me as a closer in a race full of horses that seem determined to make the lead early on. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be, and I think this race has “meltdown” written all over it; #9 POPPY’S PRIDE (4-1): Has been running against better groups than this one and exits a third-place finish against starter allowance foes. That day’s winner is a pretty nice sprinter, and of the front-running types, this is the one I most prefer; #2 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Is one of the most well-traveled horses in racing, with 34 starts and eight wins in tracks across eight states to this point. He drops back to the $32,000 claiming level here, and his last start for this tag was a wire-to-wire win at Aqueduct in February.

R5

English Castle
Film Academy
Outtawaterbury

#8 ENGLISH CASTLE (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Saffie Joseph and also makes his first start following racing’s ultimate equipment change. His first try as a gelding comes against a group that seems less than stellar for the level, and logical improvement would make him strictly the one to beat; #11 FILM ACADEMY (9/2): Needs a scratch to run but merits respect if he draws in off the AE list. This would be his first start for a tag, and while he’s had some gate issues in most of his races, it’s not like he’s performed terribly after those starts; #6 OUTTAWATERBURY (10-1): Had no pace to run at last time out in his first start at this level. He was still a decent fourth that day (only beaten a nose for third), and he’d benefit from some of his rivals jockeying for position early on.

R6

Thankfully
Episode
Miss C Banker

#11 THANKFULLY (2-1): Needs a scratch to run but figures to be a major player if she draws in. Her debut in Florida was a solid race. That came on dirt, but her bottom-side pedigree hints that it’s turf she wants, and any sort of a move forward would make her a handful; #5 EPISODE (6-1): May finally get to run on turf in her fifth lifetime start. Her two tries on synthetic weren’t bad, and her record looks much better if you toss her two-back clunker (where absolutely nothing went right); #7 MISS C BANKER (3-1): May be favored if my top pick doesn’t draw in, but while she ran a hard-luck second at this level and route last time out, I have some doubts. She had a perfect trip on an easy lead that day and couldn’t get the job done, and I just don’t like betting horses like this at short prices off of ideal journeys that didn’t lead to wins.

R7

Scoring Chance
Athena Beach
Maggie T

#2 SCORING CHANCE (8-1): Has a record that looks far better if you draw a line through her December 29th clunker (after which she was off for several months). Do that and you have a horse with two wins in dirt sprints who attracts Flavien Prat and should get an ideal setup as a closer in a race with lots of early speed; #5 ATHENA BEACH (3-1): Ran well to be second last time out in an optional claimer won by a next-out stakes winner. I thought Jose Gomez rode her very well that day, and he should have her on or near the lead early again here; #1 MAGGIE T (8-1): Never looked like a loser in her last race, which she won by six lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. Yes, she sat a perfect trip that day, but she has a track record of using her tactical speed to get into ideal spots, and for that reason, the rail draw may be an asset in this wide-open event.

R8

Virgin Colada
Reining Flowers
Totally Justified

#2 VIRGIN COLADA (2-1): Came flying late to take her debut last month and has plenty to like in the P.G. Johnson. This Chad Brown-trained daughter of More Than Ready retains Flavien Prat, and that day’s third-place finisher earned her diploma last week; #9 REINING FLOWERS (6-1): Shares some similarities with my top pick in that she rallied in a paceless race earlier this summer. This barn hasn’t sent out many runners this season, but it’s won at an alarming rate and this filly seems well-meant; #7 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (6-1): Went 0-for-2 in Kentucky to start her career but is bred for turf and finally gets it. She’s a daughter of Justify and a Galileo mare, which is turf top and bottom, and this is a barn that doesn’t ship for frequent flyer miles.

R9

Majulu
Splashy
War Terminatrix

#10 MAJULU (9/2): Dueled throughout in her first turf start before settling for second. That day’s third-place finisher was quite a bit behind the top two, and while this barn has just one winner from 19 starts as of this writing, it also has six seconds, which means horses are running well, just not winning; #4 SPLASHY (7/2): Drops in for a tag and has some back races that look solid. That drop isn’t quite as massive when we’re talking about state-bred races (since it’s a smaller pool of eligible runners), but it’s still a drop, and perhaps that wakes this filly up; #7 WAR TERMINATRIX (20-1): Cuts back to a sprint after a failed two-turn experiment last time out. Her turf sprint effort three back at Monmouth against open maiden claimers wasn’t bad. It’s not a small “if,” since that’s probably her best-ever race, but if she can channel that form, she could absolutely be a factor here at a big price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 25th, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,866.75

I’m going to be traveling most of Sunday, so I won’t see some of the card. Even if I was around, though, I likely wouldn’t be playing much because the card seems quite chalky.

This brings up something I hear every year. Many complain when public handicappers pick favorites. I agree with that to a point. If all you’re doing is picking the first, second, and third choices in order most of the time, there’s no skill involved and no reason for an audience to pay attention to you. However, if you give out big prices solely to give out big prices when your true top three is wildly different, that hits me as a bit dishonest (especially when there isn’t much room to expound on why you’re doing it).

There’s a happy medium that I hope my content hits. I treat the Pink Sheet’s pick box as “handicapping 101,” meant moreso for novice horseplayers who go to the track a few times a year, and the addition of ROI’s (published every Wednesday) was a great idea for those interested in tracking that. This section, covering how to convert strong opinions into sound bets, is “handicapping 201.” Judging by the ROI of both sections this meet, I’m doing pretty well.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Prince of Monaco was, like several others I needed on the card, a tough-luck second. None of the auxiliary stuff connected, either, and I dropped $60.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I think the most value on the card comes in the seventh. I’ll have $3 exactas using #6 SHE TAKES CASH and #9 LAKESIDE GETAWAY on top of those two, #1 BUSY MORNING, and #7 ISLAND FOX. I’ll use my top two horses on their own in an additional $3 exacta box, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on She Takes Cash (who hits me as a significant overlay at or near the 15-1 morning line price).

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Bellacose, Race 1
Longshot: She Takes Cash, Race 7

R1

Bellacose
Accelerating
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#1 BELLACOSE (2-1): Was one of the most visually-impressive winners of the summer when she romped by 10 lengths at first asking early in the meet. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she couldn’t have looked much better doing it, and I think she’s the one to beat in the Seeking the Ante; #4 ACCELERATING (8/5): Didn’t have it easy in her unveiling, when she had company up top early on. However, she put her rivals away and drew off for a trainer whose horses often get better with experience; #5 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (2-1): Was probably left with too much to do in the Schuylerville, when she was fourth behind the next-out Adirondack winner. She returns to the state-bred ranks here, and she may be the one they have to hold off late in an opener short on quantity, but long on quality.

R2

Swift Magic
More Therapy
Sounds Like a Plan

#3 SWIFT MAGIC (7/2): Is one of only a few in here with experience, and it came in a race rained off the turf. That day’s runner-up was an impressive winner earlier this week, and this one’s pedigree says he’ll improve with both experience and a switch to the lawn; #6 MORE THERAPY (9/2): Debuts for a barn that finally got off the duck Friday but has run second and third quite a bit. Firsters from this outfit often need a race, but he’s bred up and down for the grass and sports an ultra-impressive turf drill across the street back on July 26th; #12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (6-1): Needs a couple of scratches to draw in but merits respect if he gets to run. He’s kin to a pair of stakes horses, and his dam is a half-sister to Well Armed, who romped in the Dubai World Cup back in his heyday.

R3

Elysian Meadows
Dr. Kraft
Silver Satin

#2 ELYSIAN MEADOWS (4-1): Goes back to the dirt and gets some class relief in this wide-open optional claimer. He hasn’t won since late last year, but he’s spent most of 2024 going against tougher company and has gotten some eventful trips in a few of those races; #4 DR. KRAFT (3-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after four straight one-mile events. He’s been in front in the stretch in three of them with just one win, and that makes me think this distance will hit him right between the eyes; #5 SILVER SATIN (9/2): Cleared his first-level allowance condition last time out and may be on the improve. I don’t think he beat a ton in that race, but he’s also never been worse than third in five lifetime starts, and one of those outings was a win at this distance downstate.

R4

Spirit of St Louis
City Man
Dakota Gold

#4 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (1/2): Will be a heavy favorite in the West Point, and rightfully so. He’s reeled off five straight wins since a near-miss in this race last year, and he’s beaten many of his opponents here in some of those events. His usual effort will make him tough to beat, albeit at a very short price; #2 CITY MAN (3-1): Is the logical alternative to my top pick and clearly loves this turf course. Last year’s West Point winner has three wins and two seconds in six local outings and may have needed his last-out effort, which was his first try since late-October; #1 DAKOTA GOLD (6-1): Has danced in some big dances during his career but has run up against my top pick in each of his last four tries. He’s likely to sit back and make one big late run, and he’d benefit from some competition up front early on.

R5

Pandagate
Doc Sullivan
B D Saints

#4 PANDAGATE (4/5): Returned with a win in the New York Derby and had every right to need that effort. It was his first start since a trip to Dubai for the UAE Derby, which was won by eventual Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young, and any sort of step forward would make him a very formidable favorite in the Albany; #6 DOC SULLIVAN (8/5): Gave my top pick a test last time out and finished less than a length behind that rival. I don’t think two turns is his best trip, but he did win the Mike Lee emphatically two starts ago and figures to be prominent from the jump; #3 B D SAINTS (15-1): Finds trouble with aplomb, but he comes back to the dirt and I think that might be his preferred surface. The Mike Maker barn is on fire as of this writing, and given a fair amount of speed signed on, I think this one could clunk up for a piece of it at a big price.

R6

Kay Cup (MTO)
Charlotte’s Heart
Tahila

#4 CHARLOTTE’S HEART (3-1): Hammered for $725,000 last summer and has a bottom-side pedigree that hints she’ll love the turf. She’s a half to fan favorite Casa Creed, and her second dam, Wild Heart Dancing, won several graded stakes races on the lawn. Add in a strong last-out gate drill, and I think this first-time starter is very well-meant; #7 TAHILA (2-1): Had some traffic in her debut, where she still managed to run third. I’m not sure what she ran against that day, but she’s certainly got a right to improve, and while I think her pedigree says she wants two turns, she’s not a bad favorite; #1 SERIOUS LADY (12-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was in an off-the-turf event for a barn whose debuting runners sometimes need a race to get going. This is the surface she’s meant to run on, Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride back, and I think she could be a player and provide value underneath.

R7

Lakeside Getaway
She Takes Cash
Island Fox

#9 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (7/2): Ran very, very well last time out to be second behind Awesome Czech, who came back to win a stakes race at next asking. There’s other speed in here, so she may not have it easy, but I think she’s got a considerable back class edge and is strictly the one to beat; #6 SHE TAKES CASH (15-1): Ran off mid-race last time on the dirt and comes back to her preferred surface here. This is also her first try against state-bred competition since November, which should help, and the morning line price hits me as a significant overlay on a horse that has several reasons to improve; #7 ISLAND FOX (9/2): Took to the turf well last time out, edging a runner that came back to win earlier this season. This is her first try against winners, but another step forward puts her right there (especially given a race shape that could favor her closing kick).

R8

My Mane Squeeze
Dolomite
Caldwell Luvs Gold

#8 MY MANE SQUEEZE (8/5): Gets significant class relief after chasing the likes of Thorpedo Anna and Ways and Means in Grade 1 races. She was most recently third in the Test, and while this hits me as a bit longer than she truly wants, she’s thumped many of these rivals and looms large in the Fleet Indian; #4 DOLOMITE (5-1): Came back running in her 2024 debut and stretches back out to two turns here. Her lone try at the distance was a third-place finish in last year’s Grade 2 Demoiselle. Logical development second off the bench would make her a major player in here; #9 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD (6-1): Was an impressive winner last time out in the New York Oaks at Finger Lakes, a race where I wasn’t sure she wanted two turns. She answered that question well, and she’s a player in here, too (despite the fact that this race came up very, very strong for a $200,000 state-bred event).

R9

Mo Plex
Bostontonian
Under Who’s Radar

#10 MO PLEX (5/2): Wired the field in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier this summer and draws well in the Funny Cide. The outside post is a big, big plus, and while I don’t think the Sanford field was super, this seems like a slightly weaker spot for a horse that’s already shown quality and has every right to keep getting better; #6 BOSTONTONIAN (5-1): Showed some fight in his debut against open company at Churchill Downs, where he dueled through fast fractions and had enough left to get the money. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride, which is always a plus, and I think he’s live at a bit of a price; #7 UNDER WHO’S RADAR (3-1): Never looked like a loser in his debut, where he was well clear throughout. The two-back work hints that he’s still doing well, though I do think he needs to take another step forward in here off of an effort where I’m not quite sure what he beat.

R10

Silver Skillet
Spinning Colors
Marvelous Maude

#5 SILVER SKILLET (8/5): Has won her two starts this season by a combined total of 11 lengths and exits a powerhouse performance downstate in a similar spot. She does give some weight to the rest of this field, but she’s also 2-for-2 over this turf course and looks every bit like the one to beat in the Yaddo; #1 SPINNING COLORS (8-1): Steps up into stakes competition off of a very strong optional claiming score in her 2024 debut. She’s had some long layoffs, but when she’s right, she’s shown she’s got plenty of talent, and I think she and John Velazquez could sit an ideal stalking trip from the rail; #9 MARVELOUS MAUDE (8-1): Is a one-run closer that’s accomplished plenty in 14 lifetime starts and may be an inflated price here. She definitely wants some speed to chase, and I think she gets that setup here. Add in the Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr., tag team, and you’ve got a value proposition in the exotics.

R11

Autumn
Capital Spending
In All My Dreams

#8 AUTUMN (5-1): Has made a habit of collecting minor awards but sure looks like the main speed in a wide-open turf route lacking much of it elsewhere. Her last two tries were both very solid, and if she gets comfortable early, today may be graduation day after several near-misses; #2 CAPITAL SPENDING (7/2): Was a fast-closing fourth in her first two-turn try last time out and ran very well to be second going shorter two back. I think the likely price is a bit of an underlay (especially since she’s now chased my top pick twice), but she’ll definitely benefit if another runner goes with that top pick early on; #9 IN ALL MY DREAMS (8-1): Was left with far too much to do last time out and adds blinkers in her third career outing. Her debut saw her run a close-up second after rating behind a pretty slow pace, and a return to that form gives her a sizable chance in the Sunday nightcap.