BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,183.50

Friday is Hall of Fame Day. Having a ballot for that institution is one of the great honors of my career, and it’s going to be awesome to see Arrogate, California Chrome, Songbird, and Corey Nakatani get enshrined.

If you haven’t had a chance to venture to the museum, you absolutely should. They renovated the place a few years ago, it’s gotten rave reviews, and it makes for a fantastic way to spend a few hours before an afternoon at the races.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My top picks went a modest 3-for-10, but a lot of underneath horses ran huge. More importantly (for this section, at least), I saw the ball really clearly when it mattered. Gala Brand rallied from last to first to win the sixth at a bit of a price. In total, a win bet and a double into the next race turned $30 worth of bets into $253.50 (in hindsight, I should’ve avoided a double that underpaid a bit, but it’s still a really good score).

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’re going to focus on the Friday opener. I’m excited to bet #3 LUDWIG, a first-time gelding with a stellar local work tab, several different ways. I’ll have $5 exactas keying him above and below #1 OPPORTUNITY SET/#1A INDEX FUND and #4 WICKED AGAIN, as well as $5 doubles that single him and end with #2 BETTER LUCK, #3 GLACIAL POWER, and #4 STUCK ON YOU in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday: 3-for-10
Meet: 13-for-58

Best Bet: Ludwig, Race 1
Longshot: Aspen Grove, Race 7

R1

Ludwig
Wicked Again
Brown entry

#3 LUDWIG (4-1): Has been working very well ahead of his first start since May. He’s been gelded since that last-out effort, too, and it certainly seems like he’s responded well to the ultimate equipment change; #4 WICKED AGAIN (7/5): Ran in a few strong maiden races earlier this year where he came up against several next-out winners. He’s shown plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; BROWN ENTRY (6/5): #1A INDEX FUND is probably the better-meant half of the entry. He was second in his lone start to date, which came last November, and while his morning line price hits me as an underlay, he’s a contender if he’s ready to go.

R2

Crown That Saint (MTO)
Three Diamonds entry
Glacial Power

#2 BETTER LUCK (5-1): Is bred up and down for the turf and attracts Luis Saez, who hits at a strong clip when riding for this outfit. I don’t see a lot of turf pedigree in this field, and that means this son of Twirling Candy and an Artie Schiller mare might have found a great spot for the unveiling; #3 GLACIAL POWER (4-1): Had an excuse first time out, when he didn’t break well and spotted the field several lengths. He showed some late interest to rally for fourth, and improvement is logical at second asking; #4 STUCK ON YOU (8-1): Goes to the grass for Wesley Ward after running a one-paced third in her debut. She’s out of a Street Cry mare, so there’s some turf breeding here, and few barns are better with turf sprinters than this one.

R3

Bourbon’s Hope
Risk Profile
Printrack

#4 BOURBON’S HOPE (7/2): Has won two in a row since going back to Linda Rice’s barn, and the last-out win has aged well. That day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking, and Jose Ortiz lands on this one rather than his stablemate, who we’ll get to…right now; #1 RISK PROFILE (4-1): Hasn’t won since early-2022, but goes first off the claim for Rice and takes a significant drop in class. He’s hit the board in all three local tries, and perhaps the shallower waters are what he needs; #5 PRINTRACK (10-1): Has shown plenty of early zip lately and could find himself dictating terms from the jump. How long he’ll stay there is anyone’s guess, but he could get comfortable and hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R4

Lem Me Drink
Sperss
Jayla

#3 LEM ME DRINK (4-1): Is probably in a “now or never” spot given the 0-for-11 record, but her recent races include a bunch of next-out winners and she’s been very competitive. Against a field of other horses that haven’t been particularly impressive, that might well be enough; #6 SPERSS (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and ran fairly well in her lone two-turn turf start to date. She was a respectable fourth that day and has plenty of room to move forward given her relative inexperience; #8 JAYLA (5-1): Takes a significant drop into the state-bred maiden claiming ranks after wintering at Fair Grounds. She has some solid turf races on her sheet and may respond to the class relief.

R5

Joking Way
Baltasar
Major Blue

#8 JOKING WAY (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice and has run up against some very fast horses to this point in his career. The race he exits saw the winner repeat next time out, and Rice has moved up too many horses for me to ignore; #3 BALTASAR (5-1): Made his 2023 debut a winning one at Belmont, and it certainly helps his cause that his best races have come at this seven-furlong route. He could be able to sit just off the pace and have first run turning for home; #2 MAJOR BLUE (12-1): Takes a significant drop in class for this one, and while he’s been distanced in his pst several starts, he’s also shown plenty against lesser-quality horses. The class relief could wake him up at a big price.

R6

Happy Bob
Run Diem Z
Creation of Adam

#4 HAPPY BOB (1-1): Cuts back in distance after finishing third going a mile earlier in the meet. He runs for half the claiming price, too, and this field certainly features no world-beaters. Any sort of step forward off of his last-out effort would make him a formidable favorite; #6 RUN DIEM Z (10-1): Showed speed in his debut downstate and comes in off of a strong four-furlong work over this track. The runner-up in that race came right back to win, which helps, and I’m expecting a move forward; #8 CREATION OF ADAM (8-1): Draws a cushy outside post in his unveiling and has been working reasonably well for a barn that’s been firing at this stand. He might not need to be much to be a factor in his first lifetime start, and the price figures to be right.

R7

Aspen Grove
Elusive Princess
Xigera

#10 ASPEN GROVE (8-1): Came over from Europe to win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and looks live again in the Grade 3 Saratoga Oaks. She does seem to like firmer ground, so rain would be a negative, but if the course is on the drier side, I think she’ll be tough; #3 ELUSIVE PRINCESS (7/2): Has faced some of the best fillies in her native France and exits a fifth-place finish in the prestigious Group 1 Prix de Diane. The distance shouldn’t be any sort of a problem, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus; #4 XIGERA (6-1): Has a record that looks far, far better if you toss her Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies clunker. She comes in off of two wins in a row, has plenty of tactical speed, and has shown she can handle this turf course.

R8

Nagirroc
General Jim
More Than Looks

#7 NAGIRROC (7/2): May have been compromised by being too close to a scorching pace last time out in the Grade 3 Manila at Belmont. He set a track record at Pimlico two starts ago, and while Prat going elsewhere is a bit of a problem, this one’s best race wins the Grade 2 Hall of Fame; #6 GENERAL JIM (6-1): Bounced off a fantastic two-back effort last time out in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens and comes back to the grass here. I think this mile distance suits him better, and he should get plenty of pace to run at in this spot; #1 MORE THAN LOOKS (4-1): Benefited from a pace meltdown to win the Manila, but could also be coming into his own in the back half of his 3-year-old season. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

R9

Timely Conquest
Missing Fortune
Chasing Daylight

#7 TIMELY CONQUEST (4-1): Overcame a slow start to win her debut for a barn that often doesn’t have first-time starters fully cranked (and was ice cold at that point in time, too). She faces winners for the first time, but I think she’s got every right to be a nice horse; #5 MISSING FORTUNE (6-1): Romped at Finger Lakes last time out, and the local rider sees fit to ship in with the horse. That’s often a sign that a central New York shipper is well-meant, and she fits off of the last-out speed figures she earned; #6 CHASING DAYLIGHT (8-1): Was second behind a much-the-best winner last time out going a bit longer and could appreciate the slight cutback in distance. That last-out winner has since won again, so we know she’s legitimate, and even though that was a claimer and this is an allowance, it can be argued this is a softer spot.

R10

One Giant Leap (MTO)
Deep Cover
Athenry

#6 DEEP COVER (4-1): May have moved a bit too early last time out when he finished third against similar company downstate. The rider switch to Javier Castellano is a notable one, and he ran a good second at this route last year against allowance foes; #9 ATHENRY (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while but could break through in what hits me as a wide-open event. He’s a stone closer in a turf sprint with plenty of speed, and the last-out dud is excusable because seven furlongs may be just a touch further than he wants; #11 IGNITED (6-1): Comes in off of two solid efforts at Laurel, which has a similar configuration to Saratoga (if slightly weaker competition). John Velazquez sees fit to ride, and he should be able to work out his preferred trip from that outside post.

R11

South Street (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Jarreau

#9 UNLEASH THE POWER (3-1): Ran well earlier in the meet when second behind a pretty nice horse. He stretches out to a marathon distance he’s bred to handle, and his early speed means he should be prominent right from the jump; #10 JARREAU (4-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but has plenty of marathon experience and has been competitive in those races. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride when he likely had several options; #6 SHINSUN (9/2): Has shown a powerful closing kick going shorter and boasts a stamina-heavy pedigree that indicates this 11-furlong journey might not be a problem. The question is, will he get enough pace to run at in a race that might favor grinding-types versus one-run closers?

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $960

I’m engaged to the hardest-working person I’ll ever know. My fiancee is a fifth-grade teacher at a public school outside Oakland. Every day, she has to deal with 30 10-year-olds, then deal with an overgrown kid in her personal life (I tell people this all the time, but skip all of the steps and make her a saint straight away).

She’s preparing for the start of the school year, and in doing so has started a Donors Choose project to fund an initiative that will allow her kids to enjoy a diverse range of books this coming year. If you’ve had a good day at the track and are looking for a cause to support, I can guarantee you that this is a worthy one.

If you’d like to learn more and donate, click here.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Chuck Willis ran his eyeballs out in the third but finished second behind the favorite, who got a picture-perfect trip. As such, I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth race and hope I get the 8-1 morning line price on #3 GALA BRAND. I’ll make a $20 win bet on that one and single her in $5 doubles that end in the seventh with #4 I’MHAVINGAMOMENT and #6 SECURITY CODE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 1-for-10
Meet: 10-for-48

Best Bet: Its Cold in Dehere, Race 4
Longshot: Gala Brand, Race 6

R1

B D Saints
Get Spooled
Cold Plunge

#1 B D SAINTS (5/2): Debuted with a fourth-place finish at Ellis Park where he made a middle move and flattened out. It’s a tough ask to debut going two turns, and I think he’s got the potential to improve significantly in the Thursday lid-lifter; #2 GET SPOOLED (8-1): Hammered for $230,000 last year and has plenty of turf pedigree. His dam is kin to a stakes-winning turf sprinter named Spycraft, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s ready to run right away; #3 COLD PLUNGE (7/2): Debuts for a high-percentage outfit and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., who likely had a few options in here. This barn’s record with debuting turfers isn’t great, and it’s tough to debut going two turns, but his pedigree is loaded with stamina, so perhaps he’s doing what he wants.

R2

Invisible War
Cumberland Blues
Union Lights

#4 INVISIBLE WAR (5/2): Merits a reluctant top choice in a race where I have no strong opinion. He adds blinkers on a substantial class drop, and both of those tweaks could be enough to move him forward; #5 CUMBERLAND BLUES (7/2): Has run third twice for a higher claiming tag and tries two turns for the first time. He’s shown a bit of tactical speed in the past, and that could give him first run when the real running starts; #6 UNION LIGHTS (3-1): Sure seems like the main speed in here and ran second behind a much-the-best winner last time out. I’m unsure if he really wants this trip, but he could easily get comfortable up front and be tough to catch.

R3

Implementation
Playingwithmatches
Jester’s Song

#6 IMPLEMENTATION (6/5): Has been away since a sharp score at Keeneland in April, but has also been working consistently for Saffie Joseph and catches a field that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters. There’s plenty of speed in here, and that should set up for his late kick; #5 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES (5-1): Takes a big jump after running second in a $25,000 claimer last time out, but runs for Linda Rice for the first time and has contested some pretty fast races. He has some tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which I find attractive at this distance; #2 JESTER’S SONG (8-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment last time out against much better horses. He’s got dirt form that would make him a player in here if he can work out a trip from a tricky inside post.

R4

Its Cold in Dehere
Suspended Campaign
Run Devil

#8 ITS COLD IN DEHERE (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice, which, as you can tell, is a move I simply cannot ignore. She had a bonafide excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well, and her two-back victory against higher-level competition was solid; #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN (6/5): Merits respect thanks to a gigantic class drop, but while her best race beats these, I have some doubts. She hasn’t won over a fast dirt track in quite some time, and closers breaking from the rail sometimes don’t get the trips they need; #5 RUN DEVIL (6-1): Comes back to what’s probably the right level after being in over her head for a $40,000 tag in June. She got pretty sharp over the winter at Aqueduct and is a contender if she can get back to that form.

R5

One Headlight
Gem Mint Ten
Timbuktu

#9 ONE HEADLIGHT (2-1): Tries winners for the first time, but it’s tough to not be impressed by how fast he came home last time out. He may have to navigate another closer-unfriendly race shape, but I think he’s talented enough to do so; #5 GEM MINT TEN (6-1): Was one-paced against stakes competition last time and returns to the allowance ranks. With that, he gets Lasix again, and he has enough early speed to work out a very favorable trip; #1 TIMBUKTU (5/2): Rallied from last to first last time out at Belmont and seems to have found his best form since going to Rick Dutrow’s barn. Two turns is a question mark, but he certainly seems well-meant and has some flexibility in his running style.

R6

Lady Prospect (MTO)
Gala Brand
Destiny Star

#3 GALA BRAND (8-1): Has a ton of turf pedigree on her dam’s side, as that mare, Olorda, was a very classy grass horse that won multiple graded stakes races. Bill Mott doesn’t work his young horses very quickly all that often, so that recent three-furlong bullet jumps off the page; #4 DESTINY STAR (4-1): Is another firster bred to love the lawn. This daughter of Catholic Boy is out of a Declaration of War mare, one whose dam was a 2-year-old stakes-winner on grass; #7 SHORESY (8-1): Has an experience edge over most of these and did at least do some running late after a poor start. This barn isn’t a big one, but it wins races at a solid clip and it’s interesting they ship this filly here when she almost certainly could’ve found a spot in the mid-Atlantic circuit.

R7

Security Code
I’mhavingamoment
Tempermental

#6 SECURITY CODE (7/2): Ran well here twice a season ago and has tangled with stakes foes multiple times since then. She was left with too much to do last time after a poor break, and I’m expecting her to sit a better trip in this spot over a surface she’s shown she likes; #4 I’MHAVINGAMOMENT (5/2): Put forth a career-best effort last time out in victory, when she cruised home clear by three lengths downstate. The possibility of a bounce off of that performance is there, but the recent bullet drill over Belmont’s training track is a big plus; #7 TEMPERMENTAL (6-1): Comes back to dirt first off the claim for Chris Englehart, who knows how to win with new acquisitions. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown, and it sure seems like there’s some zip elsewhere in this field.

R8

Pipeline
Guntown
Galt

#2 PIPELINE (3/5): Hasn’t run since a clunker in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where it’s abundantly clear something went wrong. He’s been working consistently for Chad Brown and seems to have found a fairly soft spot for his 2023 debut; #1 GUNTOWN (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice (I’m saying that A LOT…) and ran fairly well when second behind a next-out winner in his most recent outing. Stretching out to a mile shouldn’t be too much of a problem, and he seems like the most probable winner if the heavy favorite falters; #4 GALT (7/2): Ran third behind the talented Tonal Impact last time out and has plenty of back class. Songbird’s little brother clearly isn’t as brilliant as she was, but he’s a consistent, hard-trying horse that can’t be ignored.

R9

War Like Goddess
Virginia Joy
McKulick

#1 WAR LIKE GODDESS (3/5): Is one of the country’s top turf females when she’s at her best, and this seems like an ideal race shape in the making. Unlike her effort last time out in the Grade 1 New York, there’s some early speed signed on for the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and that should open the door for the late kick we’ve come to expect; #2 VIRGINIA JOY (8-1): Beat my top pick here last year in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl, so we know she’s capable of big efforts. She hasn’t won since, but she was probably too far back last time out and gets a big rider switch to Flavien Prat; #4 MCKULICK (7/2): Has more tactical speed than she showed last time out, when she rated in sixth early on in the New York and couldn’t catch the top two. She’s run well here several times and could get first run turning for home.

R10

Ripe for Mischief
P Money
Academy Choice

#9 RIPE FOR MISCHIEF (3-1): Gets a monstrous rider switch to Luis Saez and cuts back in distance for the Thursday finale. Both of those changes, plus a cushy outside draw, could help him break through in a race where he may find himself alone up front early on; #8 P MONEY (12-1): Hasn’t raced since January, but I think there’s reason to believe he’s sitting on a strong effort. His female family includes a third dam that threw champion turfer Better Talk Now, and he makes his first start as a gelding in here; #3 ACADEMY CHOICE (10-1): Ran well to be third in his first effort going short on turf last time out, and it helps his cause that the runner-up came right back to graduate. He may be on the upswing, and he probably doesn’t have to move forward too much to be a player in here.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $990

As a reminder, this content is solely an after-hours passion project of mine. It will only be available on this site, so keep checking back for more content from now through Labor Day.

A lot of things happened while I was gone, and it gives me plenty of material for this space. First, let’s tackle racing in my adopted home region of Northern California, which was dealt a massive blow with the announcement of Golden Gate Fields’s impending demise.

I’d like to think there’s a morsel of truth in The Stronach Group inviting horses and trainers down south, and I’d like to think races will be carded where those horses and trainers stand a fighting chance. However, with only $1 million or so of an upcoming $31 million infrastructure project allotted to those means, I can’t help but think many talented horsepeople (and the thoroughbreds in their care) won’t be making the trip.

There’s an initiative gathering steam in NorCal that would see racing take place at fair tracks 10 months out of the year. That seems far more logical, and would allow for a “minor league” circuit that otherwise wouldn’t exist.

LAST TIME…: It was a while ago, but I had $40 in win bets whittled down to a single losing $10 wager.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I really like #1 CHUCK WILLIS in the third. I think the cutback in distance will suit him, and I’m betting accordingly. My action is a $30 win bet on him in hopes that he channels his mid-2022 form.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday, July 17: 2-for-9
Meet: 9-for-38

Best Bet: Chuck Willis, Race 3
Longshot: Just Call Ray, Race 7

R1

Caramelised
Awakened
Merry Maker

#3 CARAMELISED (7/2): Made his first U.S. start a winning one before finishing a distant third against much better horses. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and I think this one may respond to a cutback in distance; #1 AWAKENED (7/2): Has fired some big shots since being moved to the steeplechase ranks in early-2022. His last-out win was a strong one, and his flexible running style is a plus; #2 MERRY MAKER (6-1): Hit a rough patch in late-2022 but came back running in his 2023 debut, when he rallied from eighth to capture an allowance race. This is probably a step up the ladder, but he’s inexperienced and may have some room to grow.

R2

Flying in Style
Bustino Santino
Stavros

#7 FLYING IN STYLE (3-1): Ran well in his debut for a barn that doesn’t often have firsters fully cranked. He made the lead from the rail that day, gets a much friendlier draw in this spot, and has every right to move forward at second asking; #3 BUSTINO SANTINO (5-1): Hasn’t run since January but boasts a few solid local works and may have room to improve. He’s never once run over a fast main track, so there’s every chance he’s got a gear we haven’t seen yet, and this barn excels in bringing horses back off of long breaks; #6 STAVROS (9/2): Comes east after flopping twice in California and runs against New York-breds for the first time. He’s been working well at Laurel and may relish the class drop, but those two SoCal races didn’t come back fast on figures and this isn’t a bad group for the level.

R3

Jacobson entry
Chess Master
Lyrical Poet

#1 CHUCK WILLIS (4-1): Has back races that would crush this group and goes second off the layoff (and first off the claim) in this spot. Seven furlongs is a bit longer than he probably wants, but this 5 1/2-furlong trip should hit this speedy gelding right between the eyes; #2 CHESS MASTER (6/5): Has run some big figures in his career and exits a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Closers on the rail make me a bit nervous, and the likely price seems like an underlay, but he’s an obvious contender provided he gets the right trip; #6 LYRICAL POET (3-1): Hasn’t run since October and takes a big drop for Wesley Ward. His late-2022 form is troubling, but he’s shown early speed against better and does have a win at this route.

R4

Shadow Dragon
Olympic Dreams
Un Ojo

#1 SHADOW DRAGON (9/5): Contested several Kentucky Derby prep races and ran into some top-class 3-year-olds along the way. He’s improved his numbers in his two most recent outings and stretches back out to two turns, which hits me as his best game; #3 OLYMPIC DREAMS (2-1): Did everything but win in the Commentator downstate, when he ran the talented Bankit to a head at a big price. His lone two-turn dirt start to date was a win back in April, and it sure seems like he’s finding his best form midway through his 4-year-old campaign; #2 UN OJO (5-1): Hasn’t run since January but has been working swiftly at Keeneland and adds blinkers for the first time. Best known for winning the Grade 2 Rebel last year, the one-eyed NY-bred would benefit from a pace meltdown.

R5

Run for Your Honey
Belvoir
Charity First

#5 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY (6-1): Ran third as an 8/5 favorite earlier in the meet, but goes two turns for the first time and is bred to love this trip. Her dam’s pedigree is all-distance, and the experience edge she has over most of this group could prove significant; #6 BELVOIR (5/2): Is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Maiden Beauty and fetched $105,000 at auction, 14 times the stud fee of sire Flameaway. Going two turns on debut is a tough ask, but she’s got every reason to be a good one; #8 CHARITY FIRST (10-1): Was one-paced in her debut, where she ran into several next-out winners in what turned out to be a key race. The blinkers go on, as does jockey Luis Saez, and improvement seems logical at second asking for a runner whose pedigree says she wants lots of ground.

R6

T Max (MTO)
Kannon Fire
Miss M M

#2 KANNON FIRE (5-1): Is the bigger price of the two Linda Rice trainees, but is the one I prefer in a wide-open event. Her two-back win was solid, she had a bonafide excuse last time out, and given her first-out win at Aqueduct, we know she can handle a two-turn trip; #1 MISS M M (8-1): Merits a long look in here due to the likely race shape, which figures to be very kind to early speed. She say just off of very fast fractions going five furlongs last time, but has a win going a two-turn mile and could get comfortable up front at a price; #3 STIR CRAZY (5/2): Ships up from Monmouth, drops in for a tag, and makes sense given her consistency. The lack of a recent win is certainly troubling, but I prefer her to #7 POSTNUP, who hasn’t won in more than two years and hits me as a very vulnerable favorite despite a trainer change that’s impossible to ignore.

R7

Lord Captain
Just Call Ray
Salto de Tigre

#10 LORD CAPTAIN (9/5): Ran a career-best race first off the claim for Linda Rice last time out, when he ran a close-up second and earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s shown plenty of two-turn form in the past, so the 10-furlong journey doesn’t concern me much, and anything close to the last-out figure likely beats these; #5 JUST CALL RAY (15-1): Didn’t do much running last time out, but I’m willing to look past that clunker. His best races have come going two turns, not one, and if he channels his May form, he’s got every chance to be a player in here at a big price; #6 SALTO DE TIGRE (6-1): Is an ultra-consistent gelding who seems to always show up. He’s hit the board in 16 of 24 career starts, including each of his last eight, and his plodding style could suit this distance very nicely.

R8

Technical Analysis
White Frost
Haughty

#5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Boasts three graded stakes scores over this turf course and looms large in the De La Rose. Her 2023 debut last time out was solid, and she should step forward considerably, as she’s shown she relishes going two turns over the lawn at the Spa; #1 WHITE FROST (3-1): Has danced plenty of big dances and was third in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland earlier this year. Bill Mott has enjoyed a strong start to the meet with several big wins, and this is another that more than fits in this spot; #4 HAUGHTY (5-1): Is one of three Chad Brown trainees and has every right to be sitting on a big effort third off the bench. She was wide throughout in the Perfect Sting last time, gains Irad Ortiz, Jr., for this effort, and figures to be prominent early.

R9

Headland (MTO)
Mail Order
Adaay In Asia

#6 MAIL ORDER (4-1): Ran second behind next-out stakes winner Roses for Debra in her 2023 debut despite an awkward start. She flashed enough talent earlier in her career to hint that this effort was no fluke, and a step forward would give her a big chance; #4 ADAAY IN ASIA (8-1): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits but goes third off the bench here and retains the services of Flavien Prat. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown, and there’s plenty of early zip signed on (at least on paper); #7 KAUFYMAKER (4-1): Is one of two Wesley Ward trainees in this spot and comes in off of a win at Churchill in May. They ran her in some big spots as a 2-year-old, and while she may not have moved forward much from those races, her usual effort puts her right there.

R10

Baby Sox
Vax
La Aguililla

#4 BABY SOX (6-1): Misfired in her first try against winners, but she dueled through solid fractions that day and may have bounced off of a lifetime-best effort two back. She should make the lead in here, and that may be enough in what hits me as a weak race for the level; #7 VAX (7/5): Merits respect given the barn switch and massive class drop, and was third in the race my top pick exits. However, she benefited from the same pace that compromised Baby Sox that day, and I think they may go a bit slower up front here; #6 LA AGUILILLA (7/2): Has gone a long time without a win, but runs for her lowest claiming tag ever and has run in some pretty fast races in the past. It doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, but that might be enough to get her a check in the Wednesday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Nothing here today.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: This is getting comical. For the third straight day, my play scratched.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m craving action, so let’s spread today’s bets out across the card. I’ll have $10 win bets on the following horses: #2 PLEASANT PASSAGE (race 3), #4 CUMBERLAND (race 6), #1 MR PHIL (race 8), and #9 UNCASHED (race 9).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Saturday: 2-for-11
Meet: 7-for-29

Best Bet: Cumberland, Race 6
Longshot: Mr Phil, Race 8

R1

Speakinofthedevil
Fight Fiercely
Gabe

#3 SPEAKINOFTHEDEVIL (3/5): Takes a substantial class drop and looms large on paper in what seems like a formful opener. He romped by nearly 12 lengths two starts back in Indiana, and anything close to that kind of effort would make him a formidable favorite; #2 FIGHT FIERCELY (7/2): Was eased last time out when running for triple this claiming price in his first start for trainer Joe Sharp. His two-back effort at Churchill was a solid second, and he’d benefit from a speed duel up front; #4 GABE (5-1): Crushed an overmatched field at Belterra by as many as he pleased last time out, but went to the sidelines for a few months after that effort. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but he looked sharp doing it.

R2

Alice Kramden
Jolly Miss Jill
Yogi

#5 ALICE KRAMDEN (4-1): Had a number of excuses last time out and drops down in class significantly here. That was her first start against winners, the track came up muddy, and she may have bounced off of a career-best effort. I’m expecting an improved performance at what’s probably the right level; #3 JOLLY MISS JILL (5/2): Stretches out to a mile, which is a question mark, but she also drops in class and looks like the main speed in an otherwise paceless race. If she gets comfortable early, she could get brave and prove tough to catch; #7 YOGI (3-1): Was second against similar last time out at Belmont behind a horse that came back to win again at next asking. She showed improved tactical speed that day, which could come in handy in this spot.

R3

Sunset Louise (MTO)
Pleasant Passage
Veronica Greene

#2 PLEASANT PASSAGE (3-1): Adds blinkers after a few tough-luck trips, including a fifth in the Grade 2 Appalachian where she got mauled from both sides in the stretch. Her maiden-breaking score here last summer was sharp, she’s since won a graded stakes race, and her best effort would make her tough; #7 VERONICA GREENE (3-1): May not be bet as much as her stablemate, but I prefer her here. She’s yet to run a bad race on turf, didn’t have much pace to close into last time out at Belmont, and has proven two-turn turf form; #4 BEAUTE CACHEE (8/5): Kept excellent company overseas last year, but wasn’t overly impressive at 1/5 in her stateside debut. She won, but the speed figures didn’t come back highly. Perhaps she needed the race off the bench, and maybe she’ll improve today, but I think she has to in order to beat a pretty solid group.

R4

Let Freedom Spring
Ensign Parker
Hereby

#1 LET FREEDOM SPRING (9/5): Went wire-to-wire in his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda and looks like the main speed in this bottom-level beaten claiming event. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and he should have every chance at his third win since April; #6 ENSIGN PARKER (5-1): Hasn’t found the winner’s circle since at least 2021, but moved up second off the bench to run a decent second at this level downstate. In a race without much early zip, his tactical speed could be a plus; #7 HEREBY (6-1): Comes in off of a second-place finish at Finger Lakes where he recorded a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number he’s ever earned in a dirt race. He drops in for a tag here, and while he might need to step forward, it seems like he’s doing well, and that may be enough in a race without any world-beaters signed on.

R5

Rodriguez entry
Collected Special
Always a Warrior

RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (8/5): I prefer #1 ANTONIO OF VENICE, who ran very well to be a close-up second in his debut and may have bounced last time out. A return to his first-out form, plus the experience he has under his belt, would make him a likely winner; #6 COLLECTED SPECIAL (6-1): Ships up from Monmouth and could be well-meant. He hammered for $85,000 at OBS earlier this year, and his dam’s six prior foals to race have all found the winner’s circle at some point; #8 ALWAYS A WARRIOR (4-1): Is another Jersey shipper with a strong female family. He’s kin to two winners, and his pedigree traces back to third dam Darien Miss, a seven-time stakes winner who threw Grade 1 heroine Fleet Renee.

R6

Cumberland
Rice entry
Fast Boat to Skye

#4 CUMBERLAND (9/2): Was vanned off after his last-out effort, so it’s clear something went wrong that day. He’s back in against weaker rivals, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back, and anything close to either of his races against straight maidens at Gulfstream earlier this year may make him hard to catch; #1 ROCKSTAR RED (6-1): Responded to the last-out class drop by doing everything but win. He lost a head-bob downstate and was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who does great work with new acquisitions; #8 FAST BOAT TO SKYE (10-1): Has shown speed in several starts against straight maidens and drops in for a tag for the first time. John Velazquez sees fit to ride, and he should be prominent early against a weaker group than the ones he’s previously run against.

R7

Film Star
Pledgeofallegiance
Ouster

#6 FILM STAR (2-1): Stretches out to two turns in this spot, but was very impressive in his last two-turn try at Keeneland, where he led every step of the way. There doesn’t seem to be much other early speed in here, so he could dictate terms from the jump; #7 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (8-1): Has won two in a row and stepped up out of the claiming ranks with aplomb last time out. He’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, and he should be able to sit that type of trip without too much of a problem; #2 OUSTER (5/2): Faltered as the 5/2 favorite in the Commentator downstate, but before that ran several really sharp races in a row. One of them saw him earn a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. If he wants to go this far, he’ll have every chance.

R8

Mr Phil
Baby Yoda
Nakatomi

#1 MR PHIL (10-1): Stretches out to his best distance and has a big chance at a price given some of his prior form. He goes back to the Rob Atras barn for this one, and he’s never been worse than third in five tries at seven furlongs; #3 BABY YODA (6/5): Is a very sharp horse when he’s right and clearly loves Saratoga, as he’s 3-for-4 over this track. He’s run just once since October, and that start didn’t go well, but he’s obviously a contender if he’s ready to go; #2 NAKATOMI (5/2): Has danced plenty of dances against some tough sprinters, and on paper, this looks like a drop in class. However, this is a stakes-quality optional claimer, and I’m just not sure he’s the same horse at seven furlongs that he is at six.

R9

Uncashed
Gaslight Dancer
No Nay Hudson

#9 UNCASHED (5-1): Hasn’t fired a bad shot yet for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country and was a very impressive winner of a listed stakes race last time out. He tries turf for the first time, but his bottom-side pedigree is grass-heavy, so that’s not a concern for me in the slightest; #10 GASLIGHT DANCER (7/2): May have bounced a bit last time out off of a two-back stakes score at Keeneland that was pretty impressive. The outside draw should give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options, and he’s shown some versatility in his running style to boot; #1 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Broke through for his first win in quite a while last time out, and in doing so beat several of today’s rivals. The rail draw is a bit of a concern given the speed to his outside, but it’s possible he’s rounding into form midway through his 3-year-old season.

R10

Strange Fruit
Maggie
She’s a Nine

#10 STRANGE FRUIT (9/2): Caught a fast dirt track for just the second time in her career and ran a decent second behind a much-the-best winner. Jose Ortiz rides back, and a similar type of effort would give her a big shot in one of the weakest races I’ve ever seen carded at Saratoga; #4 MAGGIE (3-1): May have needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first try since November. That was also a turf race, and after a pair of clunkers on the grass, it’s safe to assume she just doesn’t like that surface. She has a few dirt races that are not bad, and “not bad” may be good enough here; #8 SHE’S A NINE (5-1): Has shown early speed in a pair of tries against state-bred maiden special weight foes and gets blinkers on the drop in class. She may have legitimate stamina issues, but “blinkers on a class-dropper” is often a powerful angle and the presence of strong gate rider Kendrick Carmouche may suit this filly.