handicapper

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/23)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

I’ll use this section today to shout out a very worthy cause. Johnny Taboada, an owner on the Northern California circuit, has an autistic son and names his horses in ways that raise autism awareness (if you’ve seen names like that and wondered about the backstory, there you go).

He’s partnering with the George Noyes Foundation to help run a charity poker tournament Sunday in Sacramento. A $150 donation gets you a seat in the tournament, plus food and access to the lounge area, and if you don’t want to play, you can buy a $50 general admission ticket.

If you’re in the area, come on out. If you’re not and want to support the cause, you can donate to the George Noyes Foundation online.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: For the third straight card going back to my summer seminar stint at Pleasanton, my best bet of the day scratched. As such, we had no action on Opening Day.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We may scratch out of action again, as two races I’m playing are carded for the turf amidst uncertain weather conditions. I’m going to try to extract some value out of heavy favorite #3 DREAMLIKE in the second race. I’ll play an early Pick Four, and my $1 ticket is as follows: 3 with 4,9 with 4,5 with 1,3,8,9. I’ll also play $5 doubles starting in the second race that use the first half of that Pick Four ticket (Dreamlike in the second, #4 G LAURIE and #9 VENENCIA in the third).

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dreamlike, Race 2
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 5

R1

Awesome Czech
Poseidon’s Mist
She Takes Cash

#6 AWESOME CZECH (9/2): Has shown a bit more pep in her step during the last two drills, which is enough to make her a tepid top pick in a wide-open Friday opener. Horacio De Paz can win with 2-year-olds, and the barn’s first-call rider, Manny Franco, has the mount; #8 POSEIDON’S MIST (3-1): Has hinted at some precocity in works at Monmouth Park and draws a cushy outside post in her unveiling. There’s some class on the bottom side of this one’s pedigree, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she’s ready to run at first asking; #7 SHE TAKES CASH (6-1): Is kin to a pair of winners, and second dam Fleet Wahine won multiple stakes races. The pedigree screams turf to me, but damsire Stormy Atlantic is, fittingly, a strong off-track influence, which could come in handy if the skies open up.

R2

Dreamlike
Ocasek
Ride Up

#3 DREAMLIKE (3/5): Ran third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial behind Lord Miles (you may have heard me talk about that race once or twice…) and looms very large in his return to the maiden ranks. His prior races tower over his competition in this spot, and he’ll probably be the shortest-priced favorite of the day; #4 OCASEK (4-1): Ran well when second in his debut before faltering as a 3/5 favorite last time out. That was a weird race where the winner freaked to romp by 19 lengths, so I don’t have much of a problem taking it with a grain of salt; #6 RIDE UP (10-1): Was second in his lone two-turn start to date and seems like one of the main pace factors here. If he gets comfortable beneath returning rider Dylan Davis, he’ll have every chance to hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R3

Venencia
G Laurie
Royalty Interest

#9 VENENCIA (4-1): May have been in a bit too deep last time out in the Grade 2 Wonder Again and returns to the allowance ranks here. Her two-back effort at Keeneland was very impressive, as she rallied into a very slow pace and was beaten less than two lengths. The presence of both Lasix and Flavien Prat should help considerably; #4 G LAURIE (4-1): Hasn’t been out of the barn since late-December but showed plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. She was a troubled-trip third in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, adds Lasix for her first start of the season, and has every right to have matured in her time off; #6 ROYALTY INTEREST (3-1): Was last of five as a 4/5 favorite in the Penn Oaks last time out and will likely go favored given the connections. However, of the Chad Brown trainees, I prefer my top pick. This one’s debut came back just-OK on speed figures, and her likely price hits me as an underlay.

R4

Accede
Randomized
Sacred Wish

#4 ACCEDE (8/5): Was outclassed in the Grade 1 Acorn, where she was fifth behind the current leader in the 3-year-old filly division. The slight cutback to a mile should help her, and anything close to her two-back effort, when she was third in the Grade 2 Eight Belles, would give her every chance in the Wilton; #5 RANDOMIZED (7/5): Graduated with an impressive 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time out before, like her stablemate, being thumped in the Acorn. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be able to make her own trip from the outside post; #3 SACRED WISH (7/2): Has a record that looks much better if you toss the two-back clunker in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. She bounced back with a strong second against older competition at Belmont, and John Velazquez returns to take the mount.

R5

Empire Sky
Holla At Your Boy
Kid Kreesa

#9 EMPIRE SKY (7/2): Is approaching “now or never” territory, as he’s come agonizingly close to earning the diploma a few times now. However, this race doesn’t seem like it’s drawn any world-beaters, and he should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the pace; #1 HOLLA AT YOUR BOY (6-1): Showed ample early speed last time out at Delaware, where he dueled early against open company over soft going. The return to the state-bred ranks could move him forward, and first-time Lasix is a very powerful equipment change; #8 KID KREESA (20-1): May have found a soft spot for the debut and is bred to like the grass. His dam’s two prior foals to race have both won, and that mare is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner King Kreesa, who was a heck of a turf horse.

R6

Ouster (MTO)
Danzigwiththestars
Battle of Normandy

#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS (6-1): Returns to upstate New York, where he’s run some of the best races of his career. This is his first start off of a long layoff, Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and a repeat of some of his past efforts over this oval would make him a major player; #3 BATTLE OF NORMANDY (4-1): Has burned plenty of money this year in two second-place finishes, both as an odds-on favorite. Those didn’t come against bad fields, and his best race could certainly win this, but he’s becoming a bit tough to trust despite showing plenty of talent as a 2-year-old; #7 SHUTTERS (5/2): Had an eventful trip when fourth downstate in his first start for a new barn. There are lots of layoff lines here, so it’s safe to assume he’s had some issues, but he’s proven going two turns and has shown enough versatility to give John Velazquez options.

R7

No More Talk
Towing
Bustin Shout

#3 NO MORE TALK (2-1): Drops in class and cuts back to six furlongs after finishing third as a 7/5 favorite last time out. He won two and three back, and in doing so beat several rivals that also show up here. A return to his preferred level and distance should suit him, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #9 TOWING (6-1): Has found career-best form as a 6-year-old, as he’s won both of his 2023 starts. He goes first off the claim for Norm Casse here, and he’s got a shot if his Churchill Downs form travels with him; #2 BUSTIN SHOUT (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but fits on speed figures and was a decent second last time out at Finger Lakes. He’s also got four top-two finishes in six starts over wet tracks, so he figures to benefit in the event of a Saratoga monsoon (copyright Tom Amello, all rights reserved).

R8

Dot’s Dollar
Happy Farm
Cees Get Degrees

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (8/5): Has won six of his last 10 starts dating back to early-2022, including his last-out race at Belmont where he topped a solid group of optional claimers. His lone start here was a wire-to-wire score at this level, and his usual race makes him the one to beat in a race filled with easy-to-root-for stalwarts of the NYRA circuit; #4 HAPPY FARM (6-1): Goes first off the claim for a capable outfit here and has two wins and a second in four local starts. Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and this consistent gelding’s usual effort would get him a piece of this; #3 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Tired against a better group last time out at Belmont, but cruised to an easy score two back on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico. He looks like the main speed in this race, and if it rains, an off track won’t bother him, judging by that runaway December score in the slop at Aqueduct.

R9

L Street Lady (MTO)
Love Reigns
Love Appeals

#4 LOVE REIGNS (7/5): Had lots of potential excuses in the Limestone last time out, but overcame an extremely unlucky trip and won despite the trouble. The recent bullet drill at Keeneland seems like a sign she’s doing well, and her best effort sure seems like it would thump that of her rivals in the Coronation Cup; #2 LOVE APPEALS (3-1): Has improved with every start and came alive when cut back to one turn by Christophe Clement. She won by nearly five lengths over a next-out winner, and she may have found what she wants to do; #8 BOSSERATI (8-1): Has won all three starts since being switched to the turf by a powerhouse mid-Atlantic outfit and gets a class test here. She’s led every step of the way in her last two tries and figures to be a prominent pace factor.

R10

Valenzan Day (MTO)
Our Country
Encourage

#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets considerable class relief and is my top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. He hasn’t won since January of 2022, but has spent the last 18 months or so running against much better horses. He’s won over this turf course before, and his back class could carry him through; #11 ENCOURAGE (5-1): Is another class-dropper, and while he has to contend with a terrible post, he’s making his third start off the bench and has races from last summer that stack up well against this group. If he finds the form that inspired bettors to send him off at 5/2 in a $100,000 stakes race last fall, he’ll have every chance; #9 SPLENDID SUMMER (8-1): Adds blinkers in his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Prat going elsewhere is a concern, but underrated turf rider Jose Lezcano hops aboard a runner with enough versatility to win wire-to-wire two back and rally from 10th to second in his lone local try last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/23; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s been a heck of a 10-month period for me since we last did this. Among other highlights, I’ve gotten engaged, climbed mountains in England, eaten mountains of food in Italy, and benefited from an arrangement that will also see my content published in the New York Daily News.

Now, the work starts. A quick rundown for those new to the party: I’ll be giving out at least one play a day in hopes of growing my mythical $1,000 betting stake. While my picks and analysis will be live on AndrewChampagne.com two days in advance, these won’t be posted until the previous day’s action has concluded (if I could post them further in advance, after all, I’d never lose).

Let’s dive in, shall we?

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on #4 OLLIEMYBOY in the fifth. If he doesn’t go favored, that hits me as an overlay. We’ll start things off with a $20 win bet on that one, plus a $10 cold double starting with him and ending with #2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS in the sixth (as a reminder, plays in all turf races assume they stay on the grass).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Olliemyboy, Race 5
Longshot: Need Some Money, Race 7

R1

Virtual Reality
Sabra Tuff
Bustin Bay

#1 VIRTUAL REALITY (3-1): Got up to win at first asking downstate in late-May and stretches out to two turns here. However, she’s got the pedigree to want every bit of this trip, being by Preakness winner Cloud Computing and out of a mare with stamina-heavy bloodlines; #6 SABRA TUFF (3-1): Has faced nothing but stakes rivals since winning her debut in June of 2022 and should appreciate the class drop. The addition of Lasix also figures to be a plus, and the last-out clunker seems too bad to be true; #5 BUSTIN BAY (5/2): Crushed a field of state-bred rivals last time out at Belmont Park and has won twice in five local outings at the Spa. The hesitation here isn’t the talent, but the two-turn trip. She’s never gone this far before in 32 lifetime starts, so that’s a legitimate concern.

R2

Lady Moscato
Empire Island
Soca

#6 LADY MOSCATO (3-1): Debuted with a decent second at Ellis Park and is one of just two horses in this field with prior experience. She’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Salty, and the most recent gate work at Churchill indicates she’s bounced out of her unveiling in strong fashion; #2 EMPIRE ISLAND (5/2): Has turned in several flashy works beneath the Twin Spires and figures to be favored. She may have the talent to win this, but her distance-heavy pedigree means she may want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #4 SOCA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who must always be respected with first-time starters. She’s a half-sister to Double Thunder, who won a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, and she attracts Flavien Prat, who’s been riding as well as anyone in the country.

R3

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Liana B
La Aguililla

#4 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Came back to form last time out, when she made up lots of ground late and missed by a nose. She earned the diploma at this route last summer, and there’s plenty of speed in this turf sprint to set up for her late kick; #8 LIANA B (5-1): Went wire-to-wire at Monmouth last time out and tries winners for the first time here. Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders anywhere, sees fit to ride, and that could be a tough tandem to beat give this one’s ample early zip; #10 LA AGUILILLA (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but comes back to the turf and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., two switches that can’t be ignored. She ran well in a few early-2023 turf sprints and could have options from the outside post.

R4

Salimah
Kalifornia Queen
Sister Otoole

#5 SALIMAH (8/5): Makes her first start since the Grade 1 American Oaks and is half of a Chad Brown duo that looks very tough. She won a classy overnight stakes race before shipping west to Santa Anita, and the return of Lasix in her 4-year-old debut can’t be overlooked; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (4-1): Hasn’t won since June of 2021 but has spent most of that time going up against graded stakes competition. This is just her fifth start since October of 2021, so there have probably been some issues here, but her best effort would give her a big chance; #2 SISTER OTOOLE (6-1): Comes in off of a long layoff, but does so for Graham Motion, who gets horses prepared to go off of long breaks as well as anybody. This distance may be a bit short for her, but there are some classy names in her prior running lines that hint she’s a threat if she’s ready.

R5

Olliemyboy
Dust Devil
Two Thirty Five

#4 OLLIEMYBOY (3-1): Won for a $62,500 tag two starts ago and drops in for less than a third of that price here. He’s been gelded since a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, and this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. A repeat of that two-back effort would make him incredibly formidable; #2 DUST DEVIL (4-1): Comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes downstate against similar company, and he made up a lot of ground late in his most recent outing. Prat sees fit to ride back when he had some options, and he should be going well late; #9 TWO THIRTY FIVE (8-1): Is one of a few 9-year-olds in here, but has shown he still has some gas in the tank. This 13-time winner has proven two-turn form, and his usual effort seems like enough to get a piece of this purse at a bit of a price.

R6

Amundson (MTO)
Runningwscissors
Yarrow

#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS (8/5): Looms large in his return to state-bred competition after two runs against open company. His sharp win two back saw him earn a career-high 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and while this isn’t a bad group for the level, a similar effort would have the rest of them running for second money; #6 YARROW (4-1): Returns to what’s probably his favorite track, one where he’s never finished worse than third in three local tries. He didn’t get any pace to run at last time going a bit longer, and I think he’ll be much more comfortable here given a decent amount of early speed around him; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE (6-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort given that it was his first try in five months, but he ran a credible third at a bit of a price. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and he’s another that’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past.

R7

Need Some Money
Sa Foradada
Condiment Girl

#11 NEED SOME MONEY (8-1): Looks a heck of a lot better if you toss her two-turn efforts. I simply think she’s far better in one-turn races, and that this seven-furlong trip hits her right between the eyes. She should also benefit from a fast pace in front of her and hits me as a live longshot; #5 SA FORADADA (5-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, but gets both blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. She makes her second start off a long layoff and has run well going seven furlongs in the past, so there’s plenty to like; #9 CONDIMENT GIRL (7/2): Has proven tough to catch when she gets the early lead, and she seems like the fastest of this bunch out of the gate. Robertino Diodoro can win with new acquisitions, and she fits on speed figures; the question is, can she handle this step up in class out of a $30,000 beaten claimer last month?

R8

My Sea Cottage
Kingfish Stevens
Born a Gambler

#4 MY SEA COTTAGE (7/2): Has done nothing but fire since returning from a long break in December, and has been the victim of a few hard-luck losses downstate. His two wins have come going two turns, and his early speed should be an asset over this inner turf course; #5 KINGFISH STEVENS (5-1): Has made middle moves several times in his past few starts, and I’m guessing that’s part of why blinkers go on today. He was a credible fourth in a stakes race on the Preakness undercard two starts ago, and he’s a win candidate if he turns up more focused in this spot; #2 BORN A GAMBLER (6-1): Won for the first time in a while a couple of weeks ago, when he responded to a drop in class and rallied to get the money. He merits some respect off of the last-out effort, but he’ll have to manage stretching out to two turns and jumping back up the class ladder.

R9

Wine On Tap
Sugar Treat
Saratoga Secret

#7 WINE ON TAP (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her unveiling at Belmont and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. The additional furlong should pose no problem for this daughter of Tapit, and a win by her would give Pletcher a seventh Schuylerville win; #11 SUGAR TREAT (6-1): Overcame significant trouble in her debut, where she checked several times, lost ground, and somehow found a way to win. The outside post should give she and Prat smoother sailing, and if she transfers the synthetic form to Saratoga’s dirt track, she could be a major player; #5 SARATOGA SECRET (4-1): Was never seriously troubled in her first-out win at Ellis Park, and that day’s rider, Luis Saez, stays aboard for her first try against winners. Her lone work since that race was sharp, and like his former assistant trainer, D. Wayne Lukas is aiming for his seventh Schuylerville Thursday afternoon.

R10

Stone of Destiny
Here We Go Again
Pimenova

#4 STONE OF DESTINY (9/2): Was last of seven in her debut, but she had an excuse that day given a rough trip. David Donk’s horses often need a race or two to get going, the class drop should help her find her footing, and it’s encouraging that John Velazquez stays aboard in the Opening Day finale; #10 HERE WE GO AGAIN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but returns for a barn that hits at a 29% clip with new acquisitions. She showed some early speed a season ago, and I’m anticipating Saez will have her up close throughout in her 3-year-old debut; #11 PIMENOVA (8-1): Doesn’t draw a spectacular post but should certainly appreciate stretching out to two turns. Her best races in 2022 came at similar routes of ground, and she exits a decent third-place effort going a bit shorter at Belmont in mid-June.

2022 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis And Selections (11/5/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The 2022 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. We’re on to the Saturday program, which boasts 12 races in total and nine that fall under the Breeders’ Cup umbrella.

In addition to my analysis down below, I’ve been fortunate to be part of some awesome shows and podcasts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. You’ll find those videos embedded below, and links to podcasts will be there as well.

That’s What G Said: Distaff

Alright, time for a huge block of text. As I did last year, I’ll spend more time and energy on races where I have strong opinions (me blabbering on and on in races where I don’t feel strongly about any particular runner doesn’t help anybody). Let’s get to it!

RACE #1: We start bright and early, with a seven-furlong maiden race scheduled for 10:30 am Eastern (7:30 for those of us on the west coast). Thankfully, there’s something worth waking up for, because I like a horse that shouldn’t be favored.

#12 REAGAN ran very well in his debut. He was beaten just a neck that day, and while that day’s winner didn’t run well against winners Friday, I still think this one is very live. Seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, and in addition to having an experience edge on most of this group, Reagan also draws a cushy outside post in this 13-horse field. Add in a significant rider switch to Luis Saez, and I think there’s lots of plusses here.

#4 ARABIAN KNIGHT and #10 EXPECT MORE may have talent. However, I like Reagan on top, and I think he may drift up from his 4-1 morning line price.

RACE #2: I can’t see this optional claimer as anything more than a two-horse race. #2 NAKATOMI and #3 MESSIER look significantly faster than the rest of the field. I sincerely hope the morning line odds hold up, though my guess is the respective 9/2 and 4-1 prices will come down.

RACE #3: The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is the Filly and Mare Sprint. Last year’s renewal was very good for me, as #4 CE CE came rolling home to ensure a very good day. I think this year’s edition goes a bit differently, but I still like a closer on top.

#7 OBLIGATORY has one way of going. She wants to drop back behind a fast pace and come flying late. She had significant traffic problems in the Grade 1 Ballerina, ones the running line doesn’t adequately explain. There’s a lot of speed in this race, and I think it sets up very well for what Obligatory wants to do.

#8 GOODNIGHT OLIVE is the 3-1 morning line choice. She makes some sense, as does #13 ECHO ZULU. Those two and Obligatory are the ones I’ll primarily be leaning on.

RACE #4: The Turf Sprint features #8 GOLDEN PAL, who has never lost a North American turf race. I don’t think he’s a cinch, but he does hit me as this race’s most likely winner.

I can’t get too crazy with any alternatives. The only one that intrigues me at all is #11 CASA CREED, and he’ll be on a few saver tickets in case someone goes with Golden Pal and sets things up for a deep closer. However, I’d like him more at six or seven furlongs than this 5 1/2-furlong distance.

RACE #5: This one hurts. I didn’t just like #6 LAUREL RIVER in the Dirt Mile. I loved Laurel River and saw him as a single. That one scratching Friday morning was a stomach punch, and it forced a complete re-evaluation of this race.

I don’t think #5 GUNITE wants to go two turns, so I’m playing against him. #7 CODY’S WISH isn’t totally illogical, but he’ll be a very short price and he’s another that sure seems more effective going one turn. #9 CYBERKNIFE, meanwhile, will take money, but while his best is good enough to win this, it’s fair to wonder if he peaked over the summer.

With that in mind, I’ll take a shot with #3 PIPELINE. He seems like the main speed in this race, and he went toe-to-toe with Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Forego last time out. I think he’ll be able to sit an easier trip in here, where there isn’t quite as much early zip on paper. Pipeline is 8-1 on the morning line, and that hits me as the best value in the field.

RACE #6: European runners dominated Friday’s turf races, and I think that trend continues Saturday. They’ve got the top three contenders in the Filly and Mare Turf, and I can’t get past that trio.

#3 NASHWA, #4 ABOVE THE CURVE, and #5 TUESDAY are all good enough to win this on their best day. Given that War Like Goddess’s connections opted to go against boys, the North American contingent just doesn’t hit me as a strong one.

RACE #7: First things first, if #9 JACKIE’S WARRIOR runs his best race, he almost certainly does not lose. However, there’s a bonkers price I’ll also be using, just in case he either misfires or gets caught up in a speed duel early on.

I think #3 O BESOS has been a sprinter all along. His connections ran him in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but three of his four wins have come at sprint distances. That includes a last-out score in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs, which was his first start since April. I think he’s sitting on a career-best race, and if you’re looking for another horse to use in exotics or contests, O Besos hits me as a logical price play.

RACE #8: Another turf race, another where the European runners loom large. However, while I respect #4 MODERN GAMES and will be using him, I like another Euro on top at a slightly bigger price.

#3 DREAMLOPER was excellent in a Group 1 romp last time out. The two starts before that weren’t great, but I think the distance of those races wasn’t to his liking. It’s possible he’s just not a 10-furlong horse, and he certainly stepped forward in a big way when he was cut back to a mile at Longchamp. A repeat of that performance would make him very, very tough in this spot.

A few American runners are intriguing underneath. #6 IVAR should get a pace to close into, and #8 REGAL GLORY is as consistent as they come. Having said that, most of my multi-race tickets will revolve around Dreamloper and Modern Games.

RACE #9: The Breeders’ Cup Distaff came up a bit short on quantity, but not at all short on quality. In addition, I think it’s a fun betting race because I believe #6 NEST is an underlay. She can win, but her figures don’t tower over a very strong bunch of older fillies and mares, and I feel like she’ll be overbet.

I much prefer both #1 MALATHAAT and #4 CLAIRIERE. The former is 3-for-3 at Keeneland, the latter’s last-out effort is too poor to be true, and both should benefit from a race that has some early speed in it. Add in that neither runner is likely to be favored, and my interest gets piqued even more.

I’ll also throw in #7 SEARCH RESULTS on some of my tickets. I think she may sit a dream stalking trip behind #8 SOCIETY, and she may be the one they have to run down late.

RACE #10: More turf races, more Euros. The Breeders’ Cup Turf, naturally, has an international feel to it, and while I respect #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS, I think she’ll be up against it a bit against some of Europe’s highest-class runners.

I’ll be using #4 BROOME, #7 NATION’S PRIDE, and #11 MISHRIFF. Broome did everything but win this race a season ago when he was a tough-luck second behind Yibir. Like last year, he comes in off a misfire in the Arc de Triomphe, but he’ll get firmer ground, which he should appreciate. Also like last year, he figures to be a square price, which only adds to his appeal.

If you’re going to back an American runner, I’d recommend taking a look at #9 GOLD PHOENIX. This is a significant class hike, to be sure, but he had plenty of trouble early on last time out and was beaten just a neck despite having to rate well behind a modest pace. Flavien Prat had options, but he lands here, and that’s always a good sign.

RACE #11: Don’t get cute. Single #4 FLIGHTLINE and move on.

RACE #12: Yes, there’s a race after the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and it’s a fun one. #4 DALIKA and #5 SHANTISARA headline the Fall Harvest, and I prefer the former, who may not be favored despite coming in off of back-to-back graded stakes wins. She tailed off a bit late last year, but Al Stall has her going in the right direction. If the 7/2 morning line odds hold, that may be enough to entice a win bet.

2022 BREEDERS’ CUP: Friday Analysis And Selections (11/4/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The 2022 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. The two-day event starts Friday at Keeneland, with five races for 2-year-olds and an intriguing undercard that also offers plenty of wagering opportunities.

In addition to my analysis down below, I’ve been fortunate to be part of some awesome shows and podcasts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. You’ll find those videos embedded below, and links to podcasts will be there as well.

That’s What G Said: Juvenile Fillies Turf

Alright, time for a huge block of text. As I did last year, I’ll spend more time and energy on races where I have strong opinions (me blabbering on and on in races where I don’t feel strongly about any particular runner doesn’t help anybody). Let’s get to it!

RACE #1: I’m not crazy about the post position #8 OPEN ROAD draws, but I think he’s a 3-year-old set to make significant progress late in the year. He comes in off of a win in a first-level allowance over a loaded field. The runner-up, Strong Quality, has talent, and third-place finisher Tiz Rye Time came back to win at next asking.

I think he’s got the tactical speed to clear some of his rivals early and establish position, which isn’t necessarily something likely favorite #6 B DAWK can do. Let’s see if we can get the likely second choice home to kick off the day.

RACE #2: I sincerely hope the daughter of Tapit and Songbird, #2 MAGICAL SONG, gets bet, because I don’t like her. Her works are just-OK, and debuting at seven furlongs is no easy task.

I prefer second-time starter #6 KLASSY BRIDGETTE, who closed to be second in her debut at Churchill and should get plenty of pace to run at. If you want a first-time starter, I’d recommend #8 VIVID DREAMS, whose most recent drill was very sharp, but again, this is a tough first assignment.

RACE #3: #11 MARSALIS will be a very heavy favorite, and he’s my top pick. If you want to extract some value, I’d suggest playing him in exactas with #3 SPARTAN ARMY (who goes second off a long layoff) and #6 PRO OXIDANT (who ran very well in his debut at should come back to form on a cutback in distance).

RACE #4: #9 ARABIAN LION is another heavy chalk that seems live. It’s a Bob Baffert trainee coming in off of earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure in an impressive first-out win last month. He’s the one to beat, but I don’t think he’s a cinch.

#11 TRES SOLES and #12 PROTEGE both intrigue me at bigger prices. The former wound up on the lead by default in his debut, is bred to want the added distance he gets here, and boasts the Steve Asmussen work tab I love (the two-back work is fast, the most recent drill is a maintenance move). The latter, meanwhile, was professional in victory first time out for a barn whose debuting runners don’t often win. That day’s runner-up was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher and has since come back to win.

If Arabian Lion wins, will I be shocked? No. Will I probably still be alive? Yes. Do I think he’s a single, though? No.

RACE #5: The Grade 2 TAA (formerly the Breeders’ Cup Marathon) has no proven marathoners, and anything can happen. If ever there was a time to hit the “ALL” button, it’s here.

RACE #6: Breeders’ Cup action starts here, with the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and it’s a confounding race. My “Drank’n Champagne” co-host, Josh Rodriguez, really likes #2 LOVE REIGNS. I see why, and that one wouldn’t shock me, but to be honest, I can say the same about nearly half this field.

I’ll give two bombs that you probably want on those late Pick Five tickets. #6 PERSIAN FORCE was a half-length behind Blackbeard in the Group 1 Prix Morny two back, and that day’s rider, the ever-dangerous Frankie Dettori, sees fit to ride back. In addition, #9 SHARP AZA TACK was sent away at 1/5 odds in a stakes race at Kentucky Downs, where I think he bounced and still nearly won. Cutting back in distance should help, and if the same horse that won the Tyro by nearly eight lengths shows up here, he’s got a big chance at a square price.

RACE #7: My first strong play-against comes in the Juvenile Fillies, as I’m against #10 CHOCOLATE GELATO. I don’t think we can judge anything fairly when it comes to the prep races at Aqueduct, which were contested in boggy conditions that may never be replicated again. The post position is tough, this field is imposing, and I simply prefer others.

#7 CHOP CHOP is the wise-guy horse, and she makes a ton of sense. There should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for her late kick, and a step forward from her hard-luck second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades would make her tough. I don’t think it’s as simple as relying on just her, though.

#2 YOU’RE MY GIRL was second in the Frizette, and her debut was sensational. She has the speed to make the rail draw an asset, but I also don’t think she necessarily needs the lead. In addition, I’ll give #11 AMERICAN ROCKETTE another shot. She lost all chance at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway, but made up a metric ton of ground to finish fourth. Again, I see the Frizette as a throw-out, and with the lively pace we’ll likely get here, she hits me as one that could step up.

Finally, I’ll give you a bonkers longshot that could clunk up for a share. #1 VEGAS MAGIC was 3-for-3 going into the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, where she likely bounced off of a solid score in the Grade 2 Sorrento. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be a problem, and we know she can close. Can the winner of the Alameda County Fair’s flagship 2-year-old race, the Everett Nevin, win this one? Probably not, but if you’re playing tri’s and super’s, I wouldn’t leave her out.

RACE #8: As you may have seen in the shows and podcasts I’ve done, the Juvenile Fillies Turf houses one of my biggest plays of the entire weekend. Remember what I said about there being no value in Aqueduct preps? That applies here in a big way.

#6 BE YOUR BEST had no shot in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, where the top two ran in place from start to finish. Toss that race, and you’re left with a 2-year-old filly that won a pair of starts at Saratoga by a total of seven lengths. She saved no ground in her debut and won anyway, defeating #4 FREE LOOK in the process. She then crushed an overmatched group in the P.G. Johnson, and in both instances, she rallied into paces that were pretty soft.

I think there’s plenty of early speed in here, and several of the likely pace-setters have drawn terrible outside posts. This opens the door for Be Your Best to do what she wants and come running late. Should she do so and get the money, she’ll likely be a square price. She’s a very heavy play for me on top.

If you want to go deeper, I’m most intrigued by #5 PLEASANT PASSAGE, who exits back-to-back bullet drills, and #11 G LAURIE, who had a nightmare trip in the Grade 1 Natalma and gets a massive rider change to William Buick. However, Be Your Best will be a single on most of my tickets, and if she wins, Friday will likely be a fantastic day for me regardless of anything else that happens.

RACE #9: Single #3 CAVE ROCK in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and move on.

RACE #10: For reasons that don’t make much sense to me, we finish with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and let’s hope this year’s renewal is less eventful than the 2021 running.

#4 SILVER KNOTT and #8 I’M VERY BUSY are logical top two choices, and they’ll both be on my tickets. However, I also really like #5 BATTLE OF NORMANDY, and for many of the same reasons I like Be Your Best two races earlier.

Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy ran well twice at Saratoga while closing in paceless races. Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy never had a chance in a prep over a boggy turf course at Aqueduct. Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy figures to finally get some speed to chase, and will do so at an overlaid price.

In addition to all of that, the rider switch to Jose Lezcano cannot be ignored. Kendrick Carmouche is a fine jockey, but Lezcano has been one of the top turf riders on the New York circuit for years. This is a significant upgrade for a horse that should have every reason to fire a big shot on a big stage.

If you want to go even deeper, #1 VICTORIA ROAD and #2 PACKS A WAHLOP are my “B horses.” However, the first three will take most of my action, and if Battle of Normandy wins, it’ll likely put plenty of cash in my account heading into Saturday’s program.

WEEKLY DIGEST: Woodbine and NFL Week 2

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re back for a second go-around, and this week’s horse racing action takes me to Woodbine. A track I was fortunate enough to go to back in June, Saturday’s card features three Grade 1 races and a bunch of full fields elsewhere on the program. As a reminder, Woodbine’s wagering menu includes multi-race wagers at 20-cent minimums, rather than 50, which allows folks to go a bit deeper.

Meanwhile, Week 2 of the NFL is already underway. From an optics standpoint, there aren’t a lot of eye-catching matchups on Sunday’s slate. However, a few spreads hit me as extremely bettable.

Let’s dive in!

HORSE RACING: SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 17TH

Woodbine, Race 6: A field of 12 2-year-olds will go two turns. #10 STATE OF MIND is the 3-1 morning line favorite, and I don’t think she’s totally illogical. However, the far outside post is a problem, and 3-1 just hits me as too short a price.

I much prefer fellow second-time starter #5 BIJOU BABY. She debuted going six furlongs, and given that she’s a daughter of turf stayer Point of Entry, chances are that isn’t what she wants to do. Still, she made up a lot of ground while closing into a pretty slow pace. I’m expecting significant improvement given the experience and the added distance.

If you want to go even deeper, #3 OUR LIBERTY BELLE isn’t without a shot at a big price. She hasn’t run well in two turf starts, but her works over the synthetic course are pretty sharp and she adds blinkers in her first two-turn outing. Bijou Baby is my top pick, but I’ll have this one on a few tickets, too.

Woodbine, Race 9: This is the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and the headliner here is #5 MODERN GAMES. The last time he shipped overseas was for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Things went great for him, as he won, but not for those who bet on him, as he was declared a non-starter following a head-scratching series of events.

A repeat of his runner-up finish in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes would give Modern Games a big chance, but the likely price seems too short. I prefer two others.

My top pick is #2 IVAR. He’s clearly had his issues, judging by the layoff lines, but when he’s right, he’s a handful. He’s finished up close in back-to-back editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and he should get plenty of pace to run at in this spot.

I’ll also pose a question: Is Modern Games that much better than fellow European runner #4 FINEST SOUND? Their Timeform ratings are pretty similar, and the latter runner will be at least five times the price. Jockey Andrea Atzeni has had success over this turf course in the past, and I think this one’s live.

Woodbine, Race 10: Simply put, I want no part of any runner coming out of the Catch A Glimpse. I’m simply not impressed by the race and very much prefer a new face in the Grade 1 Natalma.

#3 G LAURIE was very impressive in winning her debut by six lengths. Graham Motion’s runners aren’t always fully cranked at first asking, but she drew away powerfully, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win.

I know the speed figures weren’t particularly kind to that race, but I’m banking on there being far more in the tank. Add in that I’m just not crazy about this field in general, and I think G Laurie represents a very attractive betting proposition.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE: WEEK 2

WEEK 1 RECORD: 1-2

Bucs -2.5 over Saints: This spread has come down over the past few days as a result of some injury-related uncertainty on the Tampa Bay offense. However, while I’ll admit the injury report is unsettling, I think this is a “buy low” opportunity.

Tampa Bay’s defense swarmed the Cowboys last Sunday night. Even before Dak Prescott left the game, Dallas couldn’t get anything going the entire game. Tom Brady may not have all of his weapons on Sunday, but I don’t think he needs them. I’ll take the Bucs in a slow-paced game where their defense gets a chance to shine.

Panthers/Giants OVER 43.5: I’m not exactly bullish about offenses led by Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones, but both of these teams face significantly weaker defenses than the ones they lined up against in Week 1. Saquon Barkley looked healthy in Big Blue’s stunning win over Tennessee, and Mayfield was at least able to engineer a few good drives against a solid Cleveland defense.

43.5 just seems a bit low to me. It’s possible this becomes a game of attrition and I look pretty silly, but I’ll gamble that each offense appreciates a bit of class relief, to steal a horse racing term. 27-17 is a winner, and that seems likely enough for me to take a shot.

Bears +10 over Packers: I watched all of the Bears’ season opener last weekend. It was ugly. Soldier Field’s turf was a mess, and for the first half, Chicago’s offense was, too. However, they did at least rally to win, and the Bears then sat back and watched the Vikings decimate Gang Green.

Mind you, I’m not saying Chicago is a likely winner. I think Green Bay is significantly sharper in the second week of the season. However, there are question marks here, especially with the Packers’ wide receiver corps. I think it’s likely Green Bay wins, but double-digits just seems like too big a spread.

Vikings +2.5 over Eagles: The second of two games on Monday comes to us from Philadelphia. The Eagles won their lid-lifter, but they survived some anxious moments against a Detroit Lions team that still has some work to do.

I’m not sold on any NFC East team. The Eagles may be the best of the bunch, but I’m eager to take the points with a Vikings team that seems to boast a higher-powered offense, even in a road game. The money line (Minnesota is between +115 and +125 as of this writing) may be worth a small shot, too.