BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,002.90

When a song has a lyric about Saratoga, I automatically perk up, and this is the case whenever “You’re So Vain,” by Carly Simon, plays at my local grocery store as part of the music mix. It’s a classic song, but the more I listen to it, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion.

If Warren Beatty, the only publicly-named subject of the song, is so vain he thinks the song is about him, he’s probably a jerk, and I’ll happily concede that point. However, since the song IS about him, isn’t he also correct? Carly Simon may have laughed all the way to the bank nearly 50 years ago, but Warren Beatty has probably had the song playing on a loop in his man cave, so who really won here?

If you liked that take, stay tuned for my “Taylor Swift is an evil genius” theory, coming soon to a bankroll section near you!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Inevtabl Conection ran his heart out at a price in his debut, but he settled for second behind the second-race favorite I was trying to beat. I dropped $27.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the Grand Slam, which starts in the sixth and ends with a Wesley Ward-trained single in the ninth (the Skidmore). My $1 ticket reads as follows: 2,4,6 with 3,6 with 5,6,9 with 3. I think #3 KAUFYMAKER is going to be very, very difficult to beat in the Friday feature, and that the Grand Slam provides ways to extract some value.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Kaufymaker, Race 9
Longshot: Mister Luigi, Race 8

R1

Hilliard
Fingal
Mr. Briggs (MTO)

#2 HILLIARD: Makes his first start for Mike Maker in the Friday opener, and I think he’ll respond favorably to the trainer switch. I also believe the likely race shape will work in his favor, and that leading rider Luis Saez will have him moving in the right direction when the field turns for home; #3 FINGAL: Jogged to an easy score in an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet and is slated to get back on the lawn here. His turf races have been fine, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip beneath highly-respected turf pilot Jose Lezcano; #4 CITY MAGIC: Is the “other” Mike Maker trainee and has shown plenty of early speed in the past. He should be on or near the lead early in this event, and at a minimum, that should keep the pace honest for his stablemate.

R2

Empire Lily
Makin My Move
Bells On Her Toes

#4 EMPIRE LILY: Debuts for Jorge Abreu, who can get a first-time starter ready to run as well as any trainer on the circuit. This filly’s dam was a multiple stakes winner who placed in a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old, and she boasts several strong four-furlong drills ahead of her unveiling; #6 MAKIN MY MOVE: Is another with an exceptional work tab, and she may go off favored in this competitive event for state-bred 2-year-old fillies. Her female family includes the dam of multiple graded stakes winner and sire Fed Biz, and she herself is kin to a strong turf stakes winner; #7 BELLS ON HER TOES: Debuts for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. However, this is also an outfit that wins races in bunches when it gets hot, and if the past week is any indication, everything Charlton Baker sends out will be worth a second look for at least the next few days.

R3

Market Alert (MTO)
Scocciatore
Three Outlaws

#5 SCOCCIATORE: Wanted no part of a two-turn mile last time out and cuts back to a sprint for this event. His two-back win going seven furlongs downstate was quite good, and he has enough speed to be prominent from the jump in a pretty wide-open event; #2 THREE OUTLAWS: Isn’t at his best over softer ground, so the yielding going wasn’t what his connections wanted to see last month. If the weather cooperates and he gets a firmer turf course, I think we’ll see a step forward; #6 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Was third in a classy mile event last month and cuts back to a sprint distance. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he figures to be pretty far back early, and I’m not sure how much pace will materialize up front going into the turn.

R4

Roman entry
Clemenza
My Cousin Rich

ROMAN ENTRY: Merits respect in this maiden claiming event. I prefer #1 ABDAN, who cuts back to a sprint after tiring badly going two turns, but #1A RECIDIVIST has some form going short and makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Kelly Breen; #6 CLEMENZA: Makes his first start off the geld in this spot and has shown some early zip in starts at Monmouth at Aqueduct. Those are far different surfaces than Saratoga’s, to be sure, but this race is remarkably light on early zip and he could make a pretty easy lead; #3 MY COUSIN RICH: Drops in for a tag and hasn’t run a bad race going short on the dirt to this point. Despite the fact that his pedigree says he wants turf, he may have simply been a dirt horse all along, and he may not need to improve much to be a player here.

R5

Achilles Heel
Kingdom On Paws
Makart

#8 ACHILLES HEEL: Took a big step forward in his turf debut, when he rallied to be beaten just a neck in a paceless race. He has since been switched to the barn of Brad Cox, and further improvement in his third lifetime outing would make him tough to beat; #9 KINGDOM ON PAWS: Outran his odds when fourth at 36-1 last time out and gets a huge jockey switch to Joel Rosario. He’s bred to be a strong turf horse, and I think there’s a chance he’s getting to do what he wants to do; #6 MAKART: Didn’t do much running in his debut earlier this month, but his pedigree says he’ll like the turf and Mike Maker’s first-time starters aren’t always fully-cranked. Sire Klimt has had a few foals show talent on the grass to this point, and he may have learned something in his unveiling a few weeks ago.

R6

Singita Dreams (MTO)
Flighty Lady
Sister Otoole

#2 FLIGHTY LADY: Won her stateside debut in April before getting stuck behind a very slow pace in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico. This is a significantly softer spot, she’ll be receiving Lasix here, and this Group 3-placed filly has shown she can get a distance like this one; #6 SISTER OTOOLE: Topped allowance foes going a mile and a quarter last month, so this is another one for whom the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I think she’s got a bit more speed than she showed last time out, when she stalked from afar through a swift opening half-mile; #9 ENJOYITWHILEWECAT: Has won once in 15 starts since the beginning of 2020, but she’s had a history of strange trips and was a late-running fourth in the Grade 3 Modesty at Arlington. That came at this distance, and she moves up if an unexpected pace battle materializes going into the first turn.

R7

Lokoya Road
Road to Success
Gimme Some Mo

#3 LOKOYA ROAD: Is a tepid top pick in a puzzling $25,000 claimer. He was claimed out of his last effort by Juan Vazquez, who hits at a 20% clip with new acquisitions, and his lone two-turn dirt race to date was far from a bad effort, as he earned the second-best Beyer Speed Figure of his career in that spot; #1 ROAD TO SUCCESS: Earned the diploma last time out at Belmont and tries winners for the first time. This is a tough spot for the level, and the rail draw can be tricky, but he’s making his first start for Rob Atras, who has enjoyed a tremendous meet to this point; #6 GIMME SOME MO: Is certainly better than his last-out effort, when he showed speed and tired badly going long over a yielding turf course. He’s got plenty of early zip, Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Todd Pletcher, and this is the lowest claiming race he’s ever run for.

R8

Mister Luigi
Repo Rocks
Critical Threat

#6 MISTER LUIGI: Exits the Grade 2 Amsterdam, which was won by runaway winner Jackie’s Warrior. However, while this one ran fifth of six that day, he was beaten only about three lengths by runner-up Drain the Clock. This is a significantly weaker spot, and on speed figures, this Ghostzapper colt certainly fits; #5 REPO ROCKS: Was a bit one-paced when third against similar very early in this stand. He’s since been gelded, and that may help him focus in this spot, where he’ll need a clean trip in order to find the winner’s circle; #9 CRITICAL THREAT: Won first time out at Keeneland back in October but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since then. However, Brendan Walsh does great work with horses coming off of long breaks, the Ellis Park works look very fast, and the first-time gelding and first-time Lasix news items cannot be ignored.

R9

Kaufymaker
Pure Panic
Barone Cesco

#3 KAUFYMAKER: Was highly-regarded enough to take money in the Group 2 Coventry at Royal Ascot, where she split the 17-horse field in eighth and was beaten just four lengths. She showed plenty of potential in her debut win at Keeneland, and the most recent turf work is a huge one; #8 PURE PANIC: Rallied to top fellow maidens in his debut at Ellis Park last month. That day’s runner-up was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and he’s since come back to win, which certainly seems to flatter this one ahead of the Skidmore; #1 BARONE CESCO: Led a field of maidens every step of the way earlier this month and tries winners for the first time in stakes company. I’m not sure he’s fast enough to break on top again, but the inside draw is a plus given his early zip and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes early and hangs on for a share.

R10

Gabby Squared
Sweet Mission
Exotic Cat

#3 GABBY SQUARED: Sure seems like she’s in a “now or never” situation in the Friday finale. She didn’t step forward much in her first try for a tag, but her two best races have come going two turns, and I think she’ll enjoy a return to that configuration here; #9 SWEET MISSION: Was one-paced when fourth against similar last time out, but she was claimed out of that race by Mark Hennig, who doesn’t reach in to take many runners. She finished just a head behind my top pick last time out, and she’ll likely be a far bigger price than that one; #4 EXOTIC CAT: Is a huge price but merits a look given a few races she’s come out of and her pedigree. She’s bred to want to go two turns, and she’ll do that for the first time in this spot. A little improvement may give her a shot to hit the board at a large number.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,029.90

I may be a handicapper, but I’m a journalist above all else, and I love a good story. Wednesday’s Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard Handicap delivered in spades, as The Mean Queen redeemed herself after one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen earlier this summer.

Just a few weeks after tossing jockey Tom Garner in the stretch, she kept her composure, rallied past stablemate Baltimore Bucko, and cruised home to win by daylight. Add in that trainer Keri Brion was a Sheppard disciple, and that she also trained Baltimore Bucko (who finished second in his first start following a Grade 1 score of his own in the A.P. Smithwick), and you’ve got something that was really, really cool to watch.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: We were washed out of our action, as the sixth race was moved off the turf. As a reminder, all wagers in this space assume races carded for the grass stay there.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I have two opinions in the second race. The first is that #7 BIG SCULLY is an underlay at 7/5. The second is that #5 INEVTABL CONECTION might be a runner given his works at Delaware and a strong bottom-side pedigree. I’ll put $15 to win on the latter runner, and I’ll also key him in $3 exactas above and below first-time starters #1 PIPITO and #3 ST. LUKES.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Gold Panda, Race 6
Longshot: Inevtabl Conection, Race 2

R1

Anna’s Fast
True Castle
Sweet Mia

#2 ANNA’S FAST: Ran too poorly to be true against far better competition last time out and drops back to the appropriate level here. She beat similar-level foes two and three back at Belmont, and I expect her to be prominent from the jump in the Thursday lid-lifter; #1 TRUE CASTLE: Has chased my top pick in each of her last two outings but has been working well since coming to upstate New York. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip; #3 SWEET MIA: Just missed in each of her last two outings and is another with a significant amount of early zip. She’s aggressively spotted by her new connections, but she gets a big rider switch to Joel Rosario that could move her forward.

R2

Inevtabl Conection
St. Lukes
Pipito

#5 INEVTABL CONECTION: Will likely be a price after shipping up from Delaware, but he has a strong bottom-side pedigree and a solid work tab. He’s a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Daddy Justice, his dam is kin to Grade 3 winner Lasersport, and his second dam is a full sister to stakes winner Marked Tree; #3 ST. LUKES: Comes in off of a big drill for Rudy Rodriguez, who doesn’t usually work his first-time starters very quickly. This daughter of Tapiture attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s ready to run; #1 PIPITO: Draws the rail in his unveiling but may be talented enough to overcome it. His work tab is as strong as any runner in the field. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his strong female family hints that he may be better on turf than dirt.

R3

Tenderness (MTO)
Smooth Pebble
Jasminesque

#7 SMOOTH PEBBLE: May have needed the last-out effort off a bit of a freshening and drops back in for a tag here. This is far from the strongest race for the level we’ll see this summer, and the Rosario/Clement tag team merits respect with turf sprinters; #9 JASMINESQUE: Rallied from last to first to top non-winners of two downstate and tries this condition for the first time. Her record looks far, far better if you simply toss the dirt races, and she ran well at this route when second against maiden claimers last summer; #6 JEN’S BATTLE: Drops back down the ladder after trying allowance company off the claim back in June. She hasn’t won in a while, but the presence of leading rider Luis Saez is a plus and perhaps the addition of blinkers will make a difference.

R4

More Moonshine
Misty Veil
Ice Princess

#5 MORE MOONSHINE: Debuted with an impressive score going seven furlongs and stretches out to two turns for her first try against winners. Her pedigree says the added distance won’t be an issue, and logical second-out improvement would make her a handful against this short field; #1 MISTY VEIL: Had a perfect trip when loose on the lead against starter allowance foes earlier this summer and may have also benefited from the muddy track. It’s also possible she’s been a dirt horse all along, though, and she’s got the early speed necessary to turn the rail draw into a strength; #2 ICE PRINCESS: Hasn’t won since February of 2020 and has been a beaten favorite in three of her last four outings. It’s possible she takes money again here, but this field came up heavier on quality than quantity, and at her likely price, I simply cannot endorse her on top.

R5

Silver Strand
Shalimar Gardens
O’Gotten Girl

#5 SILVER STRAND: Hammered for $575,000 two summers ago and sure seems to have come to hand for Bill Mott, judging by the flashy work tab. This daughter of Frosted looks ready to roll on debut, and drawing outside several other contenders should help her; #3 SHALIMAR GARDENS: Rallied to finish beaten a neck in her debut back in May, and that day’s runner-up came right back to win at next asking. She’s got a few solid local works, and Jose Ortiz and Horacio DePaz usually mean business when they team up; #1 O’GOTTEN GIRL: Has shown speed in several of her prior outings and should be forwardly-placed again here. However, she hasn’t run since February, she’s burned plenty of money to this point, and it’s tough to trust the form she showed over Aqueduct’s quirky surface.

R6

Gold Panda
V Pattern
Seizer

#2 GOLD PANDA: Ran reasonably well when third in his debut downstate, especially considering that trainer Charlton Baker’s horses often need a race or two to get going. He’s fired back-to-back bullets since that performance, and I’m expecting a big performance at second asking; #3 V PATTERN: Makes his first start since October for a patient barn that has connected at a 26% clip with similar stock. He’s been gelded since we last saw him, and perhaps he just needed the first-out effort; #1 SEIZER: Has been working consistently ahead of his debut, and one of those drills was the fastest five-furlong work of the morning on August 7th. His pedigree says he wants more ground, but this barn could be heating up and he may be good enough for a piece of it at first asking.

R7

Claytnthelionheart (MTO)
Shamrocket
Opry

#3 SHAMROCKET: Will likely go favored in a loaded optional claiming event that looks more like a stakes race. He most recently ran third in the Grade 2 Bowling Green behind Cross Border, and he’s shown he can run well going long distances. He’s a legitimate favorite and looks formidable; #4 OPRY: Could complete a 1-2 finish for Todd Pletcher, who also conditions my top pick. He hasn’t won in a while but was a close-up third going a bit longer here last month, and perhaps marathon distances are up his street; #1 OLYMPICO: Is another looking to break a long drought, as he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since the Grade 3 Fort Marcy in May of 2019. However, perhaps he needed his first race back off a long break, and he’s had a history of knocking heads with some very classy turf horses.

R8

Gambling Cat
Coworth Park
Battle Bling

#3 GAMBLING CAT: Has run three solid races in a row and closed well to be third last time out despite rating behind a pretty slow pace. She’s won going two turns before, attracts Jose Ortiz, and merits respect coming from the Mike Maker barn, which has been as hot as any outfit on the circuit this summer; #4 COWORTH PARK: Takes a significant drop in class after running third against allowance foes at Monmouth Park. Todd Pletcher’s Monmouth shippers usually don’t pique my interest, but this one may stand to benefit if the early pace is faster than expected; #6 BATTLE BLING: Showed some speed against better horses last time out in his first start after being claimed by Danny Gargan. She should capitalize on a likely race shape that seems to favor front-runners, and given her exploits on dirt, she may be the one to beat if this race is moved to the main track.

R9

Sadie Lady
Diva Banker
Awesome Debate

#1 SADIE LADY: Will likely be the odds-on choice in the Union Avenue, and for good reason. She’s in career-best form for a trainer having an excellent meet, and her usual race would likely produce a wire-to-wire victory at a very short price; #6 DIVA BANKER: Is wheeled back after a week and ran too poorly to be true last time out. Unlike many others in this race, she doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and I think she could be moving the right direction late at a bit of a price; #5 AWESOME DEBATE: Won here over a sloppy track early in the meet but didn’t do much running when fifth at Finger Lakes in her most recent outing. When she’s right, she’s very tough, and at a minimum, she could provide some company up front going up the backstretch.

R10

Marvelous Maude
Abreu entry
Vivazano

#4 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Ran third in her debut downstate despite not breaking well in that spot. She rated behind a pretty slow pace that day, and I think she’s sitting on a significantly better effort in the Thursday finale; #1 ACUSHLA: Adds blinkers after showing no early speed in both of her prior starts to date. She’s made two significant moves in as many efforts, though, and perhaps the blinkers will put her closer to striking range in this spot; #12 VIVAZANO: Returns to the turf in her second start off the bench and may have enough tactical speed to work out a trip from a tricky far outside post. She ran reasonably well in her lone turf start to date and will at least have a long run into the first turn where she can establish position on or near the lead.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,029.90

I got back home at 1 am Pacific time Monday morning after last weekend’s whirlwind trip to the East Coast. When I woke up for work about seven hours later, I didn’t feel exhausted, or run down, or anything like that. Instead, I felt fulfilled thanks to seeing my family, visiting the Spa, and running into a bunch of people I hadn’t seen in quite a while.

I’ll remember every bit of that day for a really long time. It didn’t hurt that I picked five winners in print and made some money, but that honestly didn’t matter nearly as much as the other stuff. I loved seeing people I wanted to connect with (especially my mom and my dad, who I don’t get to see nearly enough), and I’m still laughing about my girlfriend’s experience at the Big Red Spring.

Ladies and gentlemen…my girlfriend at the Big Red Spring. #Saratoga pic.twitter.com/LvRb0dL6YK

— Andrew Champagne (@AndrewChampagne) August 14, 2021

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

If you’re reading this and we met up, know that I appreciate it. I love where I live, and moving enabled me to do a lot of really cool stuff, but upstate New York’s home. It always will be.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: This one hurt. Alpha Babe was my longshot of the day and ran a huge race in the finale, but came up a head short. That was the difference between a $120 profit and a $20 loss, the latter of which goes in the ledger.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the sixth, which houses the latest longshot of the day. #4 LET THEM EAT CAKE ran a few sneaky races at this route last year and has been working well ahead of her second start off the layoff. I’ll key her in $5 exactas above and below #6 GAILHORSEWIND and #7 CROWDING OUT, and I’ll also have a $5 win bet on her as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Clear Humor, Race 10
Longshot: Let Them Eat Cake, Race 6

R1

The Mean Queen
Baltimore Bucko
Gibralfaro

#6 THE MEAN QUEEN: Suffered one of the worst beats of the meet in the Kiser, when she dumped her jockey when well clear in the stretch. That jockey sees fit to ride back, which is noteworthy because he won a Grade 1 on the second choice, and I think she atones for the last-out sins in this spot, the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard Handicap; #3 BALTIMORE BUCKO: Wired the field in the A.P. Smithwick last time and should be on or near the lead in this spot as well. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because of the jockey situation, but his best effort is certainly good enough to complete a Grade 1 sweep; #2 GIBRALFARO: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that effort is usually good enough for a piece of it. He’d stand to benefit if another went with Baltimore Bucko early, as that would set things up for his late kick.

R2

Free Enterprise
Cantrell Hill
Flat Out Beautiul

#6 FREE ENTERPRISE: Broke a long drought last time out, when he hung on at this route of ground. He drops a bit in claiming price, stays at his preferred distance (where he’s 2-for-2), and draws a cushy outside post; #2 CANTRELL HILL: Rallied for second here last month and generally runs the same race every time out. He’s got seven top-two finishes in eight 2021 outings and was claimed by Danny Gargan after his most recent effort, so there’s reason to expect him to be right there again; #3 FLAT OUT BEAUTIFUL: Hasn’t won in a while but has been running against much better horses for most of his career. He may not have taken to the mud at Belmont last time out, and the faster they go early, the better this closer’s chances figure to be.

R3

Morning Matcha
Monshun
Call Sign Charlie

#4 MORNING MATCHA: Was flying late last time out against similar and was third beaten just a length. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and further progression would make this filly a formidable favorite; #9 MONSHUN: Has been working well ahead of her unveiling and has a strong bottom-side pedigree. Her dam is a full sibling to stakes winner Flat Bold, and the presence of Joel Rosario and the outside draw are both big pluses; #7 CALL SIGN CHARLIE: Debuts for Jorge Abreu, whose barn enjoyed a stellar weekend. This outfit can certainly win with first-time starters, and the recent half-mile gate drill hints that this Mission Impazible filly may have some talent.

R4

Blewitt
Universal Payday
Heavy Roller

#3 BLEWITT: Finds himself in a pivotal spot, as he drops down significantly after being well-beaten by stakes-caliber horses in his last several starts. However, he sure seems like the lone speed in an otherwise paceless event, and if he’s ever going to get his mojo back, this seems like the spot to do it; #1 UNIVERSAL PAYDAY: Won at this route last summer and likely needed his last-out effort in which he was protected from being claimed due to the layoff. He goes back to two turns here, and a return to his mid-2020 form would give him a chance; #6 HEAVY ROLLER: Took a big step up into the $40,000 claiming ranks but didn’t run badly that day. He’s hit the board in five of six starts at this distance and could sit an ideal stalking trip at a bit of a price.

R5

Lemieux (MTO)
Vagaries
Diamond Hands

#8 VAGARIES: Fetched a bit more than $217,000 at the Tattersalls sale and, like most of Chad Brown’s acquisitions from that sale, is bred to want this route of ground. Her dam is a half-sister to Group 1 winner Mail the Desert, and she’s a tepid top pick in a fun 2-year-old maiden race; #3 DIAMOND HANDS: Hammered for $425,000 earlier this year and is bred up and down to be a good one. He’s by Grade 1 winner Frosted and out of a multiple stakes-winning mare, one who did most of her best work going long on the lawn; #2 SHINE: Is another expensive auction buy and has been working very well ahead of her unveiling. Her female family includes the dam of multiple stakes winner Icabad Crane, and the tab includes a recent bullet drill (which isn’t common for Bill Mott trainees).

R6

Let Them Eat Cake
Gailhorsewind
Crowding Out

#4 LET THEM EAT CAKE: Goes second off the bench and has been training very well ahead of a return to the turf. She ran well at this route a few times here last season, and her speed figures indicate she’s good enough to win this at a nice price; #6 GAILHORSEWIND: Adds blinkers for this event, which could help her focus and navigate a clean trip. That isn’t something she’s been able to do to this point in her career, but the equipment change makes sense and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; #7 CROWDING OUT: Will take plenty of money as a Chad Brown trainee in a turf sprint, but I have my doubts. She’s spent her time at Monmouth Park, and Brown’s Monmouth horses haven’t done a lot when shipping up to the Spa. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R7

Cadeau de Paix
Chloe Rose
Bayshore Foxes

#3 CADEAU DE PAIX: Was second last time out behind a very well-meant runner and should get an ideal race shape in this spot. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this consistent mare does her best running from off the pace. She’ll certainly be moving the right way late; #5 CHLOE ROSE: Takes a big step up in class but has absolutely done her best running over this surface. She won for fun two starts ago before falling a half-length short last time out, and this claim box favorite will make her third straight start for a new trainer in this event; #1 BAYSHORE FOXES: Cuts back to a sprint after running second in a two-turn, off-the-turf event last time out. Her one-turn races have been fine, this barn means business here, and she may be talented enough to work out a trip from her tricky inside post.

R8

Seismic Wave
Taos
Hieroglyphics

#5 SEISMIC WAVE: Has a lot of back class and is my top pick in a $40,000 claimer that looks way more like an ungraded stakes race. He’s placed in several graded events, and while the inner turf course isn’t usually kind to closers, there seems to be enough pace in here to keep things lively early on; #1 TAOS: Is a very, very tricky horse to handicap. On one hand, he hasn’t run since May of 2020 and comes back for a tag. On the other, he’s been working very well for Danny Gargan, whose record with horses off of long layoffs is top-notch, and he has the speed to capitalize on the inside draw; #10 HIEROGLYPHICS: Does his best running at Saratoga, where he’s won in three of six local tries. He has every right to run well here despite the outside draw, and his best effort would put him right there.

R9

Averly Jane (MTO)
Derrynane
Flip My Id

#3 DERRYNANE: Ran to the billing when she cruised home as the even-money favorite in her debut last month. The recent bullet drill hints that she’s moved forward since that race, and this daughter of Quality Road and stakes winner Portmagee sure looks well-meant in the Bolton Landing; #4 FLIP MY ID: Boasts one of my favorite names of any 2-year-old I’ve seen this season and exits a solid debut at Belmont where she overcame a wide trip. This filly by Freud (hence the id reference) retains Irad Ortiz, Jr., and she should be able to save a bit more ground here; #9 CHI TOWN LADY: Debuted with a win at Keeneland back in April and exits a strong four-furlong turf drill on the training track. Wesley Ward-trained 2-year-olds can’t be ignored, and this one wouldn’t be a shock even though the pedigree hints she may want a bit more ground.

R10

Clear Humor
Multiple Expansion
Damilano

#1 CLEAR HUMOR: Ran well here when second at this level last month and was claimed that day by a 23% outfit. Luis Saez likely had several options, but he lands here, and I think the cutback to six furlongs will really help him (especially since this seems like a weaker group); #3 MULTIPLE EXPANSION: Was bet to favoritism in his unveiling going long on turf, but he didn’t run well that day against a group that wasn’t bad. He drops in for a tag and changes surfaces, and at least the workouts hint that he hasn’t lost interest after the first-out misfire; #6 DAMILANO: Has hit the board in each of his last two outings, and his record does look better if you toss the non-sprint races. His efforts over off tracks haven’t been bad, and maybe a faster surface will allow him to move forward.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,049.90

I took off from San Francisco at 12 am Pacific time Saturday, got two hours of sleep on the plane, and touched down in Hartford at 8:30 am. After a two-hour drive, I rolled into Saratoga and proceeded to have one of the most fun days at the track I’ve ever had.

After spending last season sheltering in place, the feeling I got walking past the jockey statues and strolling through the clubhouse and the backyard was beyond words. To everyone I ran into, and to everyone who made the day so special for my family and me: Thank you very much.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched down to a single in the first leg of my Pick Five ticket, and that horse lost all chance at the break. I dropped $18.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll wait until the finale, as my longshot of the day seems live. #2 ALPHA BABE seems to have found a home on the turf, and I’m hoping we get the 10-1 morning line price. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Water’s Edge, Race 4
Longshot: Alpha Babe, Race 10

R1

Pickering Circle
John’s Protege
Silipo

#1 PICKERING CIRCLE: Almost certainly needed his debut effort and gets significant class relief in his second lifetime outing. George Weaver trainees usually improve with experience, and I really like the gate drill on July 24th, which was the seventh-fastest of the morning at that distance; #5 JOHN’S PROTEGE: Merits respect for Wesley Ward, who’s hit at an eye-popping 46% with first-time starters in for a tag. It’s a bit curious to see a recent turf work prior to a dirt race, but it’s not like this is an overly tough spot and he may not have to be much to win on debut; #8 SILIPO: Makes his debut here and may get some attention because his mother, Lisa’s Booby Trap, was a heck of a story (and a pretty nice horse to boot!). Rob Atras doesn’t have much in the way of first-out data, but the workouts seem fine and it wouldn’t be shocking to see he has some talent.

R2

Pletcher entry (MTO)
Kiss the Sky
Ansel

#9 KISS THE SKY: Was second in an off-the-turf event at Ellis Park last month and ships in for Mike Maker, whose charges must be respected when they’re led over. His pedigree is turf up and down, so him running well at first asking going two turns on dirt is especially noteworthy; #5 ANSEL: Had an eventful trip earlier in the meet when he broke slowly and got stuck rating behind a very slow pace. He may have needed that effort, though, and his work tab hints that he may have turned a corner ahead of his second start; #10 FLIP THE SCRIPT: Will need to work out a trip from an outside post but has every right to improve at second asking. He’s another that debuted in an off-the-turf race, and Tom Albertrani’s runners generally move forward with seasoning.

R3

Herald Angel
Sassy Melissa
Defy Expectations

#10 HERALD ANGEL: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a pair of efforts against allowance company downstate. Her connections saw fit to run her in a pair of stakes races at two, and she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure at this route of ground last August; #3 SASSY MELISSA: Has a record that looks far better if you simply toss every race that isn’t a turf sprint. She was an OK third last time out at this level, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. Jose Ortiz rides back, and I think she could be live at a price; #4 DEFY EXPECTATIONS: Looks like one of the main early speed horses in this heat and ran second against similar last time out at Belmont. That day’s winner won a race earlier this summer, and most of her misfires came against far better horses than what she’ll line up against here.

R4

Water’s Edge
Saratoga Pal
Quickflash

#1 WATER’S EDGE: Will likely be an odds-on favorite in here, and for good reason. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time out in an impressive, maiden-breaking score, and he faces many horses that have been at this level for quite a while. Anything close to the last-out effort should sink these; #4 SARATOGA PAL: Goes second off the layoff here and crushed a weaker group earlier this month at Finger Lakes. He ran a huge race here last summer to break his maiden, and his late-running style would give him a chance if the early pace is faster than expected; #5 QUICKFLASH: Hasn’t won in quite a while and stopped to a walk here earlier in the meet after dueling with a much-the-best winner. He gets the benefit of an outside draw here, and his usual race would likely get him a piece of the purse.

R5

Jester Calls Nojoy
Celestial
Midnight Stroll

#4 JESTER CALLS NOJOY: Gets a tepid top selection in a loaded 2-year-old maiden race. This daughter of Maclean’s Music doesn’t have a ton of bottom-side pedigree, but she’s zipped through a pair of four-furlong gate drills that certainly imply she’s a runner, and Todd Pletcher’s debuting runners are often well-meant; #9 CELESTIAL: Is another with a strong work tab, and in this case, it’s for Bill Mott, whose first-time starters don’t usually show that kind of speed. She’s a half-sister to champion 2-year-old filly Caledonia Road and stakes winner One of a Kind, though, so she has every right to be ready to roll right away; #5 MIDNIGHT STROLL: Hammered for $225,000 at auction and comes in off a very strong five-furlong move on August 8th. This filly’s pedigree is mostly turf, as her dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Coalport, but it sure looks like she’s working well, and the presence of Luis Saez is a big plus.

R6

Candy Monet
Roxen
Write This Down

#6 CANDY MONET: Drops in for a tag after chasing solid horses in two starts against state-bred maidens. She was up close early last time out, and that day’s winner came back to run well against allowance competition while the second and third-place horses ran 1-2 at this level; #10 ROXEN: Gets Lasix for the first time and exits a decent fourth at this level downstate. I’m far from crazy about the post position, but a repeat of her last-out effort would give her a shot, and if Lasix moves her forward, she could absolutely win this; #1 WRITE THIS DOWN: Was third against similar at Belmont and was claimed out of that race by Rob Atras. She may go favored, and the barn switch certainly helps, but closers breaking on the rail make me nervous, and so does the fact that last-out rider Joel Rosario isn’t aboard here.

R7

Business Model (MTO)
Never Explain
Future Victory

#7 NEVER EXPLAIN: Just missed last time out in a race that boasted several horses that also show up in this spot. He was very wide that day, draws a slightly better post here, and should be forwardly-placed in a race that seems light on early zip; #4 FUTURE VICTORY: Exits that common race and didn’t have a great trip there. Still, she was beaten less than four lengths, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back for Todd Pletcher, and if there’s any sort of pace in front of him, he could run on late at a bit of a price; #10 SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY: Goes back to the turf after two tried in off-the-turf races at Belmont. He showed enough class last season to run fourth in the Grade 2 Pilgrim behind Fire At Will and Public Sector, and a return to his preferred surface may very well wake him up.

R8

Mongolian Humor
Absolute Love
Jessica

#4 MONGOLIAN HUMOR: Romped by more than four lengths at this route last month and gets a tremendous trainer change to Robertino Diodoro, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. A repeat of her last-out effort may well be good enough to win this, and I’m expecting improvement; #7 ABSOLUTE LOVE: Has turned into a “win type,” having found the winner’s circle in three of her last four starts. One of those victories came here going two turns early in the meet; the question is, can she be as effective cutting back in distance?; #8 JESSICA: Hasn’t run since May but has shown plenty of early zip and may make the lead by default here. Joel Rosario doesn’t ride much for this barn, and if she gets an easy lead, she could hang on for a piece of it at a pretty big price.

R9

Bye Bye
Wink
Goin’ Good

#8 BYE BYE: Took the Grade 3 Soaring Softly two starts ago and cuts back to a sprint distance in the Galway. She’s undefeated going seven furlongs or shorter on the lawn, and I love that she’ll likely sit just off the early speed before making her run at the top of the stretch; #3 WINK: Has won a pair of listed stakes races and was second in a Group 3 overseas late last year as part of Wesley Ward’s globe-trotting operation. She ran a clunker last time out at Churchill Downs, but she certainly seems like the main speed here and the 12-1 morning line price hits me as an overlay; #7 GOIN’ GOOD: Has six top-two finishes in seven career starts and won the off-the-turf Coronation Cup here a few weeks ago. She’s never run a truly poor race and should be right in the thick of it again here.

R10

Bayshore Foxes (MTO)
Alpha Babe
Summer in the City

#2 ALPHA BABE: Has found a new home on turf and earned her diploma last time out going a mile at Belmont. She rallied from seven lengths back to win that event, and I think she’ll be closer early on in the Sunday finale (which should help her given how the inner turf course has been playing); #3 SUMMER IN THE CITY: Didn’t seem like she enjoyed running at Belmont Park and drops in class for her upstate New York debut. Her one win came over a two-turn configuration at Gulfstream Park, so a return to a similar route could move her forward; #5 MIRABELL MEI: Hasn’t won in a while but returns to the claiming ranks after two starts against starter allowance foes downstate. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and top turf rider Jose Lezcano has been enlisted to ride.