Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/11/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $622.50

Today’s big event on track is the Grade 1 Fourstardave, but it could very well be overshadowed by an annual event taking place at the Top of the Stretch. That’s the Saratoga Stumble, being run by our own Sam Hollingsworth. The premise is something like this: The entire town of Mechanicville shows up, buys matching t-shirts, and drinks itself into oblivion. Apparently, it’s a blast.

To those stumbling along today: Have fun and be safe. Most importantly, though, make sure Sam pulls through in one piece!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I bet Thirteen Songs thinking she’d close into a fast pace, not that she’d help make said fast pace. We dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I apologize in advance to my editor, because my play comes late in the card. It sure seems like #5 MR CUB is the lone speed in the Lure Stakes (race 10), and I need to play him. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I really hope we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lyrical Lady, Race 3
Longshot: La Naturel, Race 7

R1

Prognostication
Lemonist
Gosilently

#6 PROGNOSTICATION: Hasn’t run in 10 months, but is protected from being claimed, which is always an encouraging sign. He could benefit from the likely race shape and figures to be running well late; #1 LEMONIST: Has been gelded since his last start in December and sports a pair of flashy local workouts. This is the weakest field he’s faced since breaking his maiden in 2016; #8 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in each of his last 11 starts, most of which have come for today’s connections. He just missed here last summer and figures to be prominent early.

R2

Chief Executive
Calumet entry
Exchequer

#4 CHIEF EXECUTIVE: Has several strong local works ahead of his debut for prominent connections. It’s tough to debut going seven furlongs, but he’s bred to be a good one and has worked accordingly; CALUMET ENTRY: #1A SOUTHERN PHANTOM could win at second asking, but he’ll be bet heavily for reasons that have very little to do with his ability. He may need to show more early speed here than he did in his debut; #8 EXCHEQUER: Fetched $150,000 at auction last fall and has worked well for red-hot connections. He may be bred better for turf, but his talent could be enough to get him home on dirt.

R3

Lyrical Lady
Virginia Eloise
Mucho Amor

#3 LYRICAL LADY: Was one of the most impressive debut winners of the meet and figures to be favored in the Grade 2 Adirondack. She won by nearly six lengths and appeared to have plenty left in reserve; #5 VIRGINIA ELOISE: Finished well in her debut at Belmont and is bred to want lots of distance. She showed she could rate a bit that day, and that could come in handy here; #1 MUCHO AMOR: Graduated at Keeneland and sports a recent bullet workout on the training track. Wesley Ward is one of the top 2-year-old trainers in the country, and he cannot be ignored here.

R4

Starting Point (MTO)
Teachable Moment
Noble Nebraskan

#8 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Closed to be third in his debut and has a pedigree that hints he could embrace more ground. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for these connections; #12 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Sports an impressive pedigree and merits respect if he draws in off the AE list. It’s tough to debut at this route, but he’s worked well and may be a nice price; #2 WINNING FACTOR: Was second in the race my top pick exits and stretches out after some solid local workouts. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because he’s not necessarily bred to want two turns. DIRT SELECTIONS: STARTING POINT, IAN GLASS, TEACHABLE MOMENT.

R5

Payne (MTO)
Unlockthepotential
Lunaire

#3 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL: Stretches out after being beaten less than a length in his first start since October. He likely needed that race as a tightener, and that day’s winner ran well in the Quick Call earlier this week; #6 LUNAIRE: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown an ability to run well late, and that’s valuable given the early pace signed on here. He could shake up the exotics at a price; #2 MOROCCO: Was almost certainly short last time out in his first start since the fall, and the blinkers come back on in his second start off the bench. That could get him more involved early at a big number. DIRT SELECTIONS: PAYNE, CLUTCH CARGO, MESOTHERM.

R6

Road Home
Empire of War
Chase and Colorado

#5 ROAD HOME: Closed to be second in his debut for a barn that doesn’t often win with first-time starters. There’s reason to expect improvement here, and if that happens, he could be tough; #7 EMPIRE OF WAR: Has worked well on the training track ahead of his unveiling. Todd Pletcher’s runners must be respected, although this one may be better-bred for turf; #4 CHASE AND COLORADO: Is the other Pletcher-trained first-time starter. He’s by Tapit, which means he likely wants as much ground as possible.

R7

Aunt Babe (MTO)
La Naturel
Conquest Tizfire

#5 LA NATUREL: Has yet to run a bad race in her career and is a closer in a race that seems to boast tons of early speed. She was third beaten less than a length earlier in the meet, and we may get a price given this trainer’s small barn; #2 CONQUEST TIZFIRE: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but has had ample chances to win and seems to prefer settling for minor awards. She looked like a winner in mid-stretch last time, but she let the eventual winner battle back; #4 MAJESTIC WON: Took to the turf well last time out, when she graduated by nearly three lengths downstate. Luis Saez signs on, and this one figures to be involved from the outset. DIRT SELECTIONS: AUNT BABE, DANYELLI, QUEEN MUM.

R8

Delta Prince
Heart to Heart
Divisidero

#2 DELTA PRINCE: Has come out of the shadow of older sister Royal Delta and turned into a top-class turf horse. His win in the Grade 2 King Edward was strong, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip behind a hot pace; #5 HEART TO HEART: Is one of the most fun horses to root for given his longevity and the fact that he may be better than ever at age seven. He won two Grade 1 races earlier this year, but the presence of #6 VOODOO SONG means he almost certainly won’t be alone on the lead; #3 DIVISIDERO: Is a deep closer that will benefit from a fast pace. He may want a bit longer, but the quicker they go early, the more he’ll like it.

R9

Mask
Breaking the Rules
Always a Suspect

#3 MASK: Cuts back to seven furlongs, which may be the trip he wants. He may not have turned into a top-class 3-year-old, but his best race could win this and he should be able to sit just off the pace; #5 BREAKING THE RULES: Was second in a swiftly-run allowance last time out and seems like a one-run sprinter that should get better as he gets older. A fast pace would benefit him, and this distance likely hits him right between the eyes; #4 ALWAYS A SUSPECT: Likes Saratoga and exits a win earlier in the meet (albeit against weaker foes). All three of his starts over this track have been solid, and Robertino Diodoro has a strong record with new acquisitions.

R10

Mr Cub
Conquest Panthera
Zennor

#5 MR CUB: Could be the lone speed in this race, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. He was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 2 Wise Dan last time out, and he could be talented enough to lead this field the whole way; #7 CONQUEST PANTHERA: Hasn’t won in a while, but chased Delta Prince in the Grade 2 King Edward and can show some early zip if he has to. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he’s riding as well as anyone at the meet; #9 ZENNOR: Has won three in a row, including this race last year, but he has not started in more than a year. If he comes back ready to run, he’s obviously a contender, but that’s a sizable “if.”

R11

Shanghai Dreams
Hit a Provisional
Fancycase

#13 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Is emblematic of an oddity here, as several major contenders reside on the AE list and need scratches to run. She debuted with a fourth-place finish in a very solid race for the level and drops in for a tag; #12 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Rallied to be second at this level in her debut and is another that needs some luck to draw in. This barn has quietly gotten off to a solid start at the meet, and she could improve in her second outing; #10 FANCYCASE: Seems best of the main body of the field given the early speed she’s flashed of late. The body of the field seems light on horses that can pass others late, so the speed could be helpful.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/10/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $642.50

News broke yesterday (per Equibase’s Dave Litfin and DRF’s David Grening) that Wednesday’s fifth race was run not at the listed distance of a mile and a sixteenth, but at a mile and an eighth. With all due respect to the powers-that-be at the New York Racing Association, how was this allowed to happen?

You don’t see baseball diamonds with bases 95 feet apart instead of 90, or NFL fields 110 yards long instead of 100. Forgive me for thinking this is unreasonable, but if a race is listed with a 3:15 post time and a distance of a mile and a sixteenth, racing fans should be able to expect a race at that time and distance. We need to get the small things right in order to tackle the big issues this sport has, and it’s incredibly frustrating that something as basic as it gets in horse racing was mishandled.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We took a shot with a price, but Gio Lucky didn’t fire, so we dropped $18.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll concentrate on the third race, where I think #5 THIRTEEN SONGS could benefit a great deal from the class drop. I’ll keep things simple and put $20 on her to win in hopes that we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Elios Milos, Race 6
Longshot: Thirteen Songs, Race 3

R1

Cavallotto
Ninetyeighttwo
Planet Trailblazer

#6 CAVALLOTTO: Was fourth against better company and drops down to run in this event. He’s won two of his four career dirt sprints, including his lone start at this seven-furlong distance; #5 NINETYEIGHTTWO: Is a huge price on the morning line, but I think we’ll see something much shorter come post time. I’ll be happy if I’m wrong, though, as his two dirt sprints earlier this year at Tampa were both wins and Joel Rosario takes the call for a smaller barn; #4 PLANET TRAILBLAZER: Takes a colossal drop in class for his first race since October. He’s been gelded since his last effort and won here a season ago going longer, and while he probably wins if he’s right, the drop and this barn’s record with horses off of long layoffs will entice me to play against him on most of my tickets.

R2

Mrs Vargas (MTO)
Amazing Audrey
Secret Quality

#4 AMAZING AUDREY: Drops in for a tag for the first time and cuts back in distance after two straight tries at a mile and a quarter. She should appreciate the class relief, and her best efforts have come with today’s pilot in the irons; #6 SECRET QUALITY: Has been competitive in both of her career starts, which came at this level. Mike Maker claimed her following her most recent performance, and she should appreciate two turns; #5 LOVE TO SHARE: Obviously didn’t care for sloppy dirt at Monmouth and returns to her preferred surface here. She crossed the wire first in her last try for a tag at Gulfstream, and she figures to be moving well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: MRS VARGAS, MISS LOYALTY, GOLDEN VALE.

R3

Thirteen Songs
You Know Too
Luz Mimi

#5 THIRTEEN SONGS: Found the Grade 2 Honorable Miss a bit too tough, as she ran a distant fourth behind Finley’sluckycharm. This seems like the right level, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; #4 YOU KNOW TOO: Has been running against stakes company for most of her career, and is undefeated in non-stakes races. The blinkers go on, but it seems like she wants to go much longer, which is a red flag; #3 LUZ MIMI: Is a proven closer that seems to be in good form. She’s won two of four races this year, and both of those wins have come with today’s rider aboard.

R4

Long Gray Line
Malibu Strings
Lookin At Blessing

#2 LONG GRAY LINE: Drops down in class and adds blinkers for a barn that’s had a tremendous year to this point. He boasts a win going two turns, as well as a recent bullet workout at Churchill Downs; #7 MALIBU STRINGS: Ships up from Gulfstream Park, drops down in class, and tries two turns on dirt for the first time. That’s a lot of changes, and while any one of them could wake him up, this seems like a panicky drop; #1 LOOKIN AT BLESSING: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops down in class and stretches out to two turns, where he’s run credible races before.

R5

Mo Wheels Up (MTO)
Two Shakes
Fierce Scarlett

#7 TWO SHAKES: Fetched $310,000 at auction last year and is bred to be a very good turf horse. She’s by Exchange Rate, out of a Dynaformer mare, and trained by Wesley Ward, one of the top first-out conditioners in the country; #3 FIERCE SCARLETT: Goes out for the always-formidable Chad Brown barn and is by the late Scat Daddy, a prominent turf influence. Her most recent turf work was solid, and she could be a runner; #6 GLOBAL EXCHANGE: Has a very similar pedigree to my top selection and goes out for Jimmy Toner, who certainly knows how to win with turf horses. She may need a race, but it wouldn’t be a shock if she shows talent at a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MO WHEELS UP, TWO SHAKES, PAKHET.

R6

Elios Milos
Leap to Glory
Proletariat

#6 ELIOS MILOS: Won his debut and was a credible second in his first try against winners. He may have been a bit too close to the pace last time out, and there appears to be some speed for him to chase here; #4 LEAP TO GLORY: Put it all together last time out in his second start for Charlton Baker. That came against a suspect field, but Rosario keeps the mount, and when this barn gets a horse going in the right direction, look out; #3 PROLETARIAT: Makes his first start since a trainer switch and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez. He’s got plenty of early zip, and his usual race would likely get him a piece of this.

R7

Empressof the Nile
Violet Blue
Bengala

#1 EMPRESSOF THE NILE: Chased Grade 2 foes last time out and drops into allowance company. She’s shown an affinity for marathon distances and broke her maiden here last summer; #3 VIOLET BLUE: Has done her best work going very long on turf and was fourth in a stakes race downstate last month. There’s a chance she’s in career-best form, and she should be moving well late; #6 BENGALA: Wired a lesser field last time out and hasn’t run a bad race since coming to America. She likely won’t get an easy lead here, but the inner turf is kind to horses with tactical zip.

R8

Theaterintheround
Cause Me Grief
Questeq

#9 THEATERINTHEROUND: Drops in for a tag after running fourth in her first try against winners. It’s an aggressive drop, and her past races seem a cut above those possessed by the rest of the field; #7 CAUSE ME GRIEF: Was claimed last time out by Patrick Reynolds and figures to be prominent early. Javier Castellano hops aboard, and she may be the one they have to run down; #1 QUESTEQ: Hasn’t won in a while, but was a good second at big odds against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. This barn’s runners have fared well at the meet, and she can’t be ignored in vertical exotics.

R9

Always Sunshine
Mr. Crow
My Boy Tate

#5 ALWAYS SUNSHINE: Gets my nod in a race light on numbers, but heavy on talent. This one was impressive in winning a minor stakes race last time out, and unlike many of these, he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #2 MR. CROW: Found the Grade 1 Vanderbilt to be too tough, but has a track record of success at Saratoga and should appreciate the class relief. He may be fastest out of the gate, and that could demoralize some of these rivals; #1 MY BOY TATE: Returns to the races for his first outing since February. He got very good over the winter, but this isn’t an easy spot and the rail draw isn’t ideal.

R10

Lost in Manhattan
Wisecrack
Not That Brady

#7 LOST IN MANHATTAN: Was fourth in his debut on dirt and goes to the grass, a surface he’s bred to like. His experience should help him, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; #6 WISECRACK: Fetched $125,000 at auction last year and is bred to be precocious. He’s by The Factor, whose offspring tend to like turf, and trainer Rick Violette is solid with debuting runners; #13 NOT THAT BRADY: Is unlikely to draw in off the AE list, but must be used if he does. He’s out of the mare Lisa’s Booby Trap, one of the best stories in racing during her career, and he’s worked well here of late.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/9/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $660.50

I hate using this section to have to address people with no sense of decency and/or respect, but here we are. During Wednesday’s card at Saratoga, NYRA paddock reporter Maggie Wolfendale tweeted news of a horrifying encounter with an older man who ran up to her, grabbed her hair, and bragged about it.

If you think this behavior, or behavior like it, is in any way acceptable, please stop reading anything I produce (either in The Pink Sheet or on my website) immediately. I want nothing to do with anyone who thinks it’s okay to physically harass women in that way. Additionally, if you saw this happen and can identify the perpetrator in question, please contact NYRA security so this clown can be banned from the premises.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Speke didn’t break and was second all the way around the racetrack, thus foiling $20 worth of double tickets.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: It’s another perplexing card, so I’m treading fairly lightly. I’ll focus on the fifth race, and while #9 POTOMAC is the horse to beat, my exactas key possible overlay #7 GIO LUCKY, who’s wheeled back quickly by a trainer who has shown an ability to win with such runners. I’ll use that one above and below #1 FLATEXCEL, #3 SOUTHEAST, and Potomac in $3 bets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Pink Twist, Race 7
Longshot: Codrington, Race 8

R1

Time Warp
Molly’s Party
Miss After School

#4 TIME WARP: Gets my nod in a race where I could not possibly have less of an opinion (heck of a start, right?). This pick is solely because I think she’s much, much better than she showed in her debut, where she missed the break and paid dearly for it; #6 MOLLY’S PARTY: Was third going shorter early in the meet and stretches out at second asking. I’m not sure she wants to go this long, but of the ones in here with experience, she has by far the best recent effort; #7 MISS AFTER SCHOOL: Hasn’t worked particularly quickly ahead of her debut, but she’s bred to want this trip, Joel Rosario signs on, and she’ll likely be a square price.

R2

Brooklyn Gerty
Malarkey
Free Kitty

#6 BROOKLYN GERTY: Returns after more than a year away and has a few recent works that indicate she’s ready to run. Additionally, she catches what seems like a soft field for the level; #3 MALARKEY: Has finished second in both of her dirt starts and ran reasonably well last time out at this level. John Velazquez keeps the mount, and she figures to be prominent early; #1 FREE KITTY: Is 0 for 13 lifetime, but generally runs the same race every time out, and such an effort is likely good enough for a piece of it here.

R3

Dove Shoot
The Mason Factor
Cross Multiply

#1 DOVE SHOOT: Led most of the way in his debut going slightly longer downstate. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and his early zip should be on display given the rail draw; #8 THE MASON FACTOR: Woke up last time out going short on turf at Belmont. He was second going seven furlongs that day, and while I’m a bit skeptical of if he’ll want even less ground, a repeat of that effort gives him a shot; #5 CROSS MULTIPLY: Adds blinkers after tiring going longer earlier in the meet. He’s got experience going short on turf, and he may be in a position to sit back and make one big late run beneath Joel Rosario.

R4

Single Gem (MTO)
Congruity
Phone Funky Munky

#3 CONGRUITY: Wired a similar field downstate that included many runners in this event. He had a perfect trip that day, but this heat seems to have a similar lack of early speed, one he could capitalize on; #10 PHONE FUNKY MUNKY: Drops in for a tag after three unsuccessful starts against allowance foes. He ran well here twice last year and could appreciate the class relief; #5 MICHAEL WONDERFUL: Was a beaten favorite last time out at this level, but his lone prior start around two turns was his lone win to date. In that race, he beat my top pick in this very event. DIRT SELECTIONS: SINGLE GEM, MAIMO, ESPRESSO CALIENTE.

R5

Potomac
Southeast
Gio Lucky

#9 POTOMAC: Will likely be favored after putting it all together in the mud at Belmont Park. He tries winners, and while he may be overbet, he seems like the most likely winner; #3 SOUTHEAST: Drops down in class after falling victim to a paceless race earlier in the meet. His sprints from earlier in the year weren’t bad, and he’d benefit from fast early fractions; #7 GIO LUCKY: Gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano and is wheeled back quickly by a barn that’s had success with similar runners in the past.

R6

Secret Passage (MTO)
Ticonderoga
Aquaphobia

#4 TICONDEROGA: Was my top pick in the rescheduled Lure Stakes and looms large provided this race stays on the turf. He’s run against top-class opposition in the past and has done some of his best running around two turns; #7 AQUAPHOBIA: Is another that may benefit from going to a two-turn route of ground. Toss the Grade 2 San Luis Rey, and you’re left with a runner that hasn’t run a bad race since being claimed last fall; #8 SIDING SPRING: Returns off a long layoff and figures to be prominent early. He’s been gelded, and he may have the speed to clear this field early. DIRT SELECTIONS: SECRET PASSAGE, TEAM COLORS, SIDING SPRING.

R7

Pink Twist
Puffery
My Girl Annie

#5 PINK TWIST: Beat many of today’s rivals when second in an allowance downstate. She goes two turns for the first time, but she’s worked well and has the pedigree to handle this trip; #2 PUFFERY: Was beaten a length and a half by my top selection last time out. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, and John Velazquez retains the mount; #1 MY GIRL ANNIE: Improved when stretched out to two turns last week. She was second that day, and while this is a better field, at least the distance isn’t much of a question mark.

R8

Goodbye Brockley
Kreesie
Codrington

#2 GOODBYE BROCKLEY: Won going long two back before finishing a close-up second going seven furlongs. She gets an extra furlong here, and that seems like the trip she wants; #3 KREESIE: Beat my top pick two back and tries two turns for the first time. She’s got plenty of talent, but she may need more pace in front of her than she’ll get; #7 CODRINGTON: Has run well here in the past and may have been compromised by the yielding going earlier in the meet. If the ground is on the firmer side of the spectrum, it will play to her strengths, and in that instance, the morning line strikes me as an overlay.

R9

Mama Mary
Andretta
Something Joyful

#7 MAMA MARY: Ran well in her debut (which came up as a pretty tough event for the level) before not taking to a sloppy main track at all last time out. She goes back to the grass here, and assuming this stays on that surface, I’m expecting an improved performance; #2 ANDRETTA: Just missed when entered for a tag last time out, and was also very competitive here last year when put up to second in a DQ that puzzles me to this day. She’s shown talent and may get first run turning for home; #3 SOMETHING JOYFUL: Was second in her debut and is certainly a competitor if she’s right, but she hasn’t been seen in 11 months, so she may very well need this race.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/8/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $680.50

Monday’s feature was the Cab Calloway division of the New York Stallion Series. Therapist was a heavy favorite when entries were drawn, and his presence was a factor (though perhaps not the only one) in the race scratching down to a field of just two other runners. Naturally, Therapist cruised home in a romp.

I had a similar complaint last year when the Grade 3 Shuvee ran with just a three-horse field, and I’ll bring it out of the mothballs here: Stakes races at Saratoga should never, EVER go with a three-horse field. This is supposed to be the biggest meet of the year on the east coast, and it should represent the best of what this sport has to offer. Three-horse fields do not fit that description, and they never will.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: We ended a bit of a slump in the pick box, but both mid-priced horses given out in this section failed to fire. We dropped $20.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I found this card pretty tough, and I’m not in love with anything. I’ll attempt to make some money with $5 doubles starting in the eighth. #2 SPEKE is bred up and down to love two turns and may be the lone speed in the field. I’ll single him and use #1 WORLD OF TROUBLE, #2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL, #6 SHANGROYAL, and #10 STOLEN PISTOL in the ninth (the Quick Call Stakes).

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Speke, Race 8
Longshot: Held Accountable, Race 6

R1

Brockton Geoge
Sumner
Kenyan

#3 BROCKTON GEORGE: Takes a big drop in class and presents an intriguing alternative to the likely favorites. He has back form that would be good enough to win, and two turns won’t be his undoing; #1 SUMNER: Takes a nosedive in class after running fifth in a $100,000 stakes race last time out. He’ll take money based on his connections, and the shallower waters here could be a relief, but he’s yet to show that he can handle this distance; #6 KENYAN: Hasn’t won in a while, but has made a habit of picking up minor awards at this level. His lone start here was a win, and he’d benefit from a lively pace up front.

R2

Promise Me Roses (MTO)
Fiveinthemorning
Truly Courageous

#2 FIVEINTHEMORNING: Just missed when dropped to this level last time out at Belmont. Her debut at this route last summer saw her run a decent third against an OK group, and she should be running well late; #5 TRULY COURAGEOUS: Took a step forward when third last time out downstate, and the lack of other serious early speed in here could move her forward even further. She could be the one they have to catch turning for home; #4 PAZ THE WINE: Is 0 for 13 and impossible to endorse on top, but she’s been very competitive at this level and adds blinkers for a barn that’s due to get going at the meet. DIRT SELECTIONS: PROMISE ME ROSES, PUFFIN PATTY, CATANIA ROSE.

R3

Beautiful Buzz
Tiffany’s Vision
She’sakittykat

#4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ: Adds blinkers first off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez and seems like the main speed in here. Rodriguez has gotten a bit aggressive of late, so this barn could start racking up wins pretty quickly; #1 TIFFANY’S VISION: Seems to have figured things out of late and was third against similar company earlier in the meet. She figures to be the one to provide opposition to my top pick early on, especially given the rail draw; #2 SHE’SAKITTYKAT: Would benefit from a speed duel given her late-running style. She was second against similar-level foes downstate and gets a rider switch to Joe Bravo.

R4

Transistor (MTO)
Factor This
Killeen

#2 FACTOR THIS: Was fourth against much better last time out and handily beat this level of competition two back. He should benefit from the likely pace scenario and figures to be prominent; #10 KILLEEN: Made a huge middle move before flattening out against allowance foes. He’s 2 for 2 when running for a claiming tag, and he could be good enough to overcome the outside draw; #9 JAILHOUSE KITTEN: Won two in a row before checking in third last time out, and Mike Maker reached in to claim him back. Irad Ortiz hopping aboard can’t be overlooked. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSISTOR, FACTOR THIS, HOARD.

R5

Crazy Life
Pier Forty
Somelikeithotbrown

#1 CRAZY LIFE: Fetched $145,000 at auction and has worked steadily ahead of his debut. He’s bred to like turf, and this doesn’t strike me as the strongest field for the level; #9 PIER FORTY: Hammered for $250,000 earlier this year and is bred to be a good one. He’s by City Zip and out of an A.P. Indy mare. This is a barn that can win with first-time starters; #2 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Clearly didn’t take to a sloppy dirt track in his debut, and I’m willing to throw the race out. He’s bred to like the grass, and this barn’s runners tend to get better with experience.

R6

Lady Bergen
Held Accountable
Tiznow’s Smile

#3 LADY BERGEN: Disappointed when favored last time out at Monmouth, but that turned out to be a very fast heat. There are many need-the-lead types in here, and this one appears to be fastest out of the gate; #6 HELD ACCOUNTABLE: Has excuses for each of her last three starts (sloppy track, layoff, too far), and she could benefit from a lively pace. This seems like the right combination of route and level, and we may get a price; #1 TIZNOW’S SMILE: Hasn’t won in a while, but gets the services of Joel Rosario, who may take her off of a fast pace.

R7

Mesotherm (MTO)
High Moon
Flyoff

#3 HIGH MOON: Projects as the main speed in this inner turf race, and those horses are always dangerous. He’s won three of his last five starts, and top turf rider Geroux gets the call here; #5 FLYOFF: Responded to the drop in class last time out with a runaway victory and tries winners for the first time. He’s never been two turns before, but he has the pedigree to handle such a trip; #9 FUEL THE BERN: Stretches out after running third in a turf sprint earlier in the meet. Irad Ortiz has ridden him to both of his career wins, and he hops aboard here. DIRT SELECTIONS: MESOTHERM, TRES EQUIS, HIGH MOON.

R8

Speke
New York Hero
J J’s Dreaming

#2 SPEKE: Stretches out to two turns and is bred to run as long as possible. He was second in a solid race for the level last time out and seems like the main speed in here; #5 NEW YORK HERO: Makes his first start for Jonathan Thomas and has a pedigree that suggests he wants this trip. He may have needed his most recent race and could improve here; #1 J J’S DREAMING: Earned a pair of big Beyer Speed Figures downstate and could be favored, but he’s winless in his last five starts, and his two-turn races don’t seem as sharp as his one-turn efforts.

R9

World of Trouble
Stolen Pistol
Majestic Dunhill

#1 WORLD OF TROUBLE: Scratched out of the Grade 2 Amsterdam to await this spot and is bred to like the turf. He’s very fast early and could give the rest of this field a lot of work to do turning for home; #10 STOLEN PISTOL: Has won two in a row against state-breds and is 3 for 4 going short on turf. Joe Sharp’s figured out what he wants to do, and he should be going the right way late; #2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL: Is 2 for 2 this season and won a minor stakes race at Monmouth last time out. His maiden win came at this route last summer, and he doesn’t need to be too far back early, which could help him.

R10

Giant Boo Boo
Wild Colonial Boy
Dab

#8 GIANT BOO BOO: Was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart last time out and seems like the most logical selection in a very confusing finale. Throw out the turf experiment two back, and his body of work looks considerably better; #12 WILD COLONIAL BOY: Ships up from Gulfstream for a trainer that doesn’t run many in New York. The addition of blinkers could help him, since he’s been slow into stride in both of his prior outings; #2 DAB: Has had plenty of chances, but seems like the main early speed here and can’t be totally ignored. He’s never finished worse than third in three prior starts over this main track.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Entries, Purse Money Only, and Lots of Preventable Headaches

I have a rule of thumb at the racetrack, and it’s a simple one: If you have an opinion on a horse, and you bet it, and you’re right, you should be rewarded for it.

This sounds like a given, and it should be. However, the events leading up to Sunday’s first race at Saratoga turned this concept on its ear.

Here’s what happened, in as few words as I can muster: One of two coupled Joe Sharp trainees scratched at the gate. By New York law, the other half of the entry was forced to run for purse money only, and no wagers would be taken on the horse. That horse won as much the best, but for wagering purposes, the runner-up was declared the “winner.”

The aforementioned law, as it’s been explained to me, is on the books as an attempt to protect bettors. However, let me ask this question: If you’re a gambler, and you were betting the entry because of the horse that ran (as opposed to the horse that scratched), exactly how are you being protected? The only thing that’s protected, in this case, is the cash residing on the track’s end of the betting windows, as they’re refunding your wager rather than paying out a win.

This isn’t just an issue with straight, one-race bets. There have been issues with this in multi-race wagers, as well. The one that stands out to me came a few summers ago at Saratoga. I spread pretty deep in a Pick Four that included a 2-year-old race, and one of the betting interests I used was an entry trained by Edward Barker. Before the race, a part of the entry named Yorkiepoo Princess (who went on to win three stakes races) scratched, leaving just stablemate Kissin Cassie to run for purse money only.

You can guess where this is going. Kissin Cassie won by two lengths (she was about 8-1 or so when her stablemate scratched), and the horse that ran second was a 33-1 shot I did not have on my tickets (nor did pretty much anyone else, judging by the eventual payoffs). I was right to use the entry. The connections of the entry celebrated a victory. Those who bet the entry, however, were left with no profits to show for their astute handicapping.

Explain the concept of, “being right to bet a horse to win, but not winning,” to a novice horse racing fan, and the fan’s head might explode. It should never happen, yet it happens several times a year on the NYRA circuit. These are the simple things we need to clean up if racing is to survive once sports betting becomes widely legalized. If I bet the Michigan Wolverines to beat Notre Dame, and they beat Notre Dame, I expect to collect money. The same principle should apply to horse racing, and it’s not rocket science to think that.

I understand why multi-horse entries exist. Having said that, it’s entirely possible the concept has outlived its usefulness. Southern California does not have entries, and as a result, the circuit does not have this problem. Furthermore, since horse racing’s top level is being populated by fewer and fewer trainers, there are races where entries do not serve their intended purpose.

As an example of this statement, I submit Saratoga’s third race from the August 2nd program. It was a maiden special weight event for turf horses, and Chad Brown had three entrants. Two were coupled (#1 Business Cycle, a main-track-only runner who scratched, and #1A Frontier Market). A third, #3 Hizeem, was not part of the entry, which defies the very principle of entries. If entries exist to protect the public by coupling horses that share owners and/or trainers, why was one Chad Brown trainee not coupled with the other two? This holds especially true since one of the runners would only run if the race was rained off the turf, and in that circumstance, it’s highly likely that at least one of the other Chad Brown-trained runners would scratch. With that in mind, a three-horse entry would have been very improbable and should not have been seen as a bad thing.

The procedures here seem inconsistent to me, and it doesn’t pass the test of being able to explain the concept to a casual fan in less than 15 seconds. If I’m a fan, and I have a discretionary amount of money with which to bet, why would I want to spend all of this time trying to understand principles that don’t make sense? In much less time than it would take to wrap my head around these concepts, I can look up a game preview, read 300 words on the participants, and have enough substance to formulate wagering opinions on that contest.

I believe that we’d be smart to treat every issue this game has with fan education and retention at the forefront. I am not a, “THE SKY IS FALLING!,” type who believes every little issue could be the downfall of horse racing. In fact, my views are far from that. I earnestly believe there are a lot of people in the sport that genuinely want it to succeed and prosper in an age where gambling, in theory, will have less of a stigma attached to it. However, when the sports betting folks get their ducks in a row, and when that provides real competition to horse racing, we’d better be ready with a customer-friendly product that attracts people and keeps them coming back.

There are big problems the sport has that will take a lot of thought to solve. Those will all need time, unity, and, in some cases, short-term sacrifices to fix. However, there are problems we can deal with right away with very little effort that will make it easier to attract and keep new fans, and this is one of them.

In lieu of a better solution (and if someone has one, I’m all ears), NYRA and other organizations that still have multi-horse entries should treat each horse as a separate betting interest. The rules that are on the books are not working as intended, and they’re costing players money rather than ensuring they’re protected. Changes to these procedures and policies would be to the benefit of everyone involved, and they would prevent issues like the ones that arose Sunday at Saratoga from happening again.