handicapping | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/7/21; WHITNEY DAY)

Posted on August 5, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,212.90

It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, yes, but it’s also an annual day of celebration for one group at the Spa Saturday. I’m referring to the Saratoga Stumble, which is helmed by fellow Pink Sheet handicapper and Saratogian sports staff veteran Sam Hollingsworth. People from the greater Mechanicville area wearing matching t-shirts descend on Saratoga Springs and consume mass quantities of alcohol, and it’s apparently a wonderful time. Be safe, everyone!

In addition, if you’d like to see more of me analyzing today’s racing action, I pinch-hit on “The Magic Mike Show” presented by Racing Dudes, and “Champagne and J.D.” will be live online at 9 a.m. Eastern Saturday morning. We’ll be joined by Laura King from the Dubai Racing Channel, who’s in town for a special on-site broadcast. If you miss the live show, we’ll have it up on our YouTube channel shortly after it ends.

As always, August is a busy month, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. Cards like Whitney Day are what make Saratoga special, and they also make doing what I do an incredible experience. I should write a book or something.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Value Engineering ran third, Lazuli was off the board, and I dropped $33.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: The all-stakes Pick Five is a really fun sequence, and that’s where I’ll invest some money. It starts in the sixth (the Lure), ends in the 10th (the Whitney), and my 50-cent ticket looks like this: 2,3,5 with 3,4,5,6 with 1,4,7,8 with 6 with 4. In addition, I’ll also play a $10 cold double starting in the ninth (the Saratoga Derby Invitational) that singles both #6 BOLSHOI BALLET and likely Whitney favorite #4 KNICKS GO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Bolshoi Ballet, Race 9
Longshot: Chestertown, Race 11

K Club (MTO)
Speak Unity
Boston Flagship

#8 SPEAK UNITY: Stretches out to two turns after a pair of sprint races and is bred to love the extra ground. He’s by Belmont winner Union Rags, out of a Dynaformer mare, and makes his first start as a gelding for top-notch horseman Jonathan Thomas; #5 BOSTON FLAGSHIP: Ran well enough to be third in his debut earlier in the meet despite racing very greenly most of the way. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose horses tend to get better with experience; #2 DRIPPING GOLD: Hammered for $300,000 at auction earlier this year and is a full brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Aurelia’s Belle. He’s been working steadily for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and may be good enough to factor in this despite his inexperience.

Grumps Little Tots
Heirloom Kitten
American Tattoo

#8 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Didn’t have much pace to run at last time at Belmont, but still ran on well enough to be fourth that day. It sure seems like there’s more speed in this heat, and the return to a two-turn configuration should hit him right between the eyes; #4 HEIRLOOM KITTEN: Has plenty of early speed and figures to be prominent going into the first turn. He was claimed last time out by an outfit that doesn’t claim many runners, and he ran well at this route twice last summer; #2 AMERICAN TATTOO: Ran well when second in his first dirt route since January last time out at Churchill Downs. He’s got plenty of back class, is another with some early zip, and perhaps he’s found his form again after a few starts for the Norm Casse barn.

Tuggle
Dream Bigger
Stage Left

#2 TUGGLE: Came back running off a very long layoff when second in a similar spot at Belmont. Unlike several others in this field, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip just off what figures to be a hot pace; #5 DREAM BIGGER: Is entered to run for the first time in nearly a year, but he’ll have every chance if he’s ready to run. He’s raced almost exclusively in stakes company, is a three-time stakes winner, and has every right to improve from age three to age four; #4 STAGE LEFT: Has won twice in three local starts, and his best race could certainly win this. His last-out misfire at Churchill is concerning, but he’s been working consistently since then and trainer Wesley Ward always merits respect.

Gold Panda (MTO)
Ruse
Shutters

#5 RUSE: Ran third at this level earlier in the meet despite a wide trip behind a very slow pace. He gets a far friendlier draw here, and I’m hoping his speed can be better utilized here. If he gets comfortable early, he could prove tough to catch; #9 SHUTTERS: Fetched $115,000 at auction back in 2019 despite a pretty modest pedigree and debuts for Chad Brown. This barn alone will attract money, but extended stays at Monmouth usually hit me as red flags, and that’s where he was from May through most of July; #2 SPORTINI: Has been working well ahead of his debut for Michael Stidham, who’s shown he can win with first-time starters. Two-turn events can be tough on unarmed horses, but he’s bred for this sort of route and attracts Luis Saez, which can’t be ignored.

Brigadier General
Vodka Mardini
Big Skipper

#2 BRIGADIER GENERAL: Showed talent in his debut, when he was second in a swiftly-run event at Churchill Downs. The added distance shouldn’t be a problem given his pedigree, and I love the two recent five-furlong drills over the training track, which hint he’s only moved forward since that effort; #6 VODKA MARDINI: Has every right to be a very good horse. This Steve Asmussen trainee is by Bernardini, out of multiple stakes-winning sprinter Hot City Girl, and sports several bullet drills from the gate downstate; #5 BIG SKIPPER: Hammered for $590,000 last September and has a pedigree we won’t see often. He’s by the late Arrogate, out of a Speightstown mare, and has worked well here, but he’s another with an extensive Monmouth work tab that provokes at least a bit of hesitation.

Tacitus (MTO)
Value Proposition
Flavius

#3 VALUE PROPOSITION: Is one of several live horses in here trained by Chad Brown, and he exits a near miss in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple. He was second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner, and a repeat of that effort could get him the lion’s share of the purse in the Lure; #5 FLAVIUS: Always seems to run well and exits a close-up second in the Seek Again at Belmont. He always seems to run well, and his best race could absolutely win this, but he’s also won just once in eight stateside starts, which doesn’t inspire confidence; #2 DELAWARE: Was third in the Forbidden Apple and didn’t get much pace to chase in that event. His best races have come going two turns and he should be going the right way turning for home, but will the early fractions be fast enough to set up for his late kick?

War Like Goddess
Dalika
My Sister Nat

#3 WAR LIKE GODDESS: Comes in off of back-to-back Grade 3 wins going long, and her runaway score in the Bewitch at Keeneland was particularly impressive. She’s still fairly lightly-raced, so she may have room to improve, which is a scary thought for her rivals in the Grade 2 Glens Falls; #6 DALIKA: Almost certainly has to improve, but should get an ideal setup to run a career-best race. There isn’t much other zip in this race, at least on paper, and she should be able to dictate terms from the jump, which could give her a tactical advantage; #5 MY SISTER NAT: Hasn’t won in a while, but that most recent win came in last summer’s Grade 3 Waya at this route of ground. She exits a third-place finish in the Grade 2 New York behind Mean Mary, who would take plenty of money here, and if another runner goes with Dalika early, she’d be a primary beneficiary.

Obligatory
Search Results
Bella Sofia

#4 OBLIGATORY: Cuts back to seven furlongs and could be in prime position to take advantage of a sizzling early pace in the Grade 1 Test. She’ll want to sit far back and make a sweeping move late, and the likely race shape should play right into her hands (hooves?); #7 SEARCH RESULTS: Is 4-for-5 lifetime, with her lone defeat coming when she was beaten a neck by Malathaat in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She capitalized on a perfect trip to take the Grade 1 Acorn, and if the early pace is softer than expected, she could prove tough to run down; #8 BELLA SOFIA: Won two of three starts downstate and gets a big class test here. However, she draws very favorably here and stacks up pretty favorably from a figures standpoint, and it’s tough to poke holes in what she’s done to date.

Bolshoi Ballet
Cadillac
King Fury

#6 BOLSHOI BALLET: Cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, which came a month after he was the 6/5 favorite in one of England’s greatest races, the Group 1 Epsom Derby. I think he’s an exceptionally talented 3-year-old, and if he’s right, he should prove tough to beat; #4 CADILLAC: Came back running in June, when he took a Group 3 at The Curragh going a mile and a quarter against older foes. His one stateside start came in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, when he was a decent fourth, and he’s probably better now than he was then; #11 KING FURY: Makes his first start on turf here but has every right to love the lawn. His dam, Taris, is a half-sister to a stakes-winning turfer, his third dam was a Grade 3 winner on grass, and if he takes to the new surface, he could crash the exotics at a price.

R10

Knicks Go
Swiss Skydiver
Mayfield

#4 KNICKS GO: Bounced back from a disappointing run in the Grade 1 Met Mile with an explosive romp in the Grade 3 Cornhusker, where he earned a career-high 113 Beyer Speed Figure. If he’s right, he’ll likely lead the Grade 1 Whitney from gate to wire, and there’s no reason to think he isn’t; #3 SWISS SKYDIVER: Beat the boys last year in the Grade 1 Preakness, and her connections merit tons of respect for trying them again here. She won the Grade 1 Alabama over this track last summer, and a similar effort could earn her a sizable check here; #5 MAXFIELD: Has only been beaten once in eight career starts and would benefit if my top two selections cook each other early. Having said that, questions linger over the quality of rivals he’s beaten in those seven wins. This is a Grade 1 race in every sense of the word, and he may need a career-best race to get the job done.

R11

Chestertown
Dubb entry
Risk Taking

#8 CHESTERTOWN: Has been gelded since his last start, and that should really help him. The former $2 million baby has shown equal parts talent and stubbornness in the afternoons, and if he moves forward, the winner of last year’s Albany here may have a big chance at a square price; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A MUSICAL HEART, who won the Flat Out two back at Belmont and was fairly well-fancied in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He ran into Lone Rock that day, and these waters are significantly more shallow; #3 RISK TAKING: Drops back into the allowance/optional claiming ranks after tackling the likes of Rombauer in the Grade 1 Preakness back in May. He gets Lasix for the first time in addition to the class drop, and that potent mixture can’t be ignored in this tricky betting race.

R12

Time Limit
Risky Mischief
Bay Storm

#7 TIME LIMIT: Gets a reluctant nod in a puzzling Saturday finale. She ran very well to top state-bred competition earlier in the meet, the Maker barn is winning everything in sight right now, and Luis Saez should be able to use this filly’s early zip to work out a favorable trip; #6 RISKY MISCHIEF: Found a new home on turf last year, and her first victory on the grass came at this route last August. She’s been away since November, but if she’s ready to run, her flexible running style will make her a contender; #10 BAY STORM: Is another coming in off of a layoff, but she does so for a trainer who does very well with returning horses and exits a stellar work over the training track on July 25th. The addition of Lasix could move her forward provided she’s able to negotiate a trip from a pretty wide post.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/6/21)

Posted on August 4, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,245.90

Having a ballot for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame is one of the great honors of my career. It’s something I cherish and respect every day of the year, but never more so than the day of the annual induction ceremony.

Two years’ worth of honorees will be enshrined Friday morning across the street from the track. Among others, the group includes trainers Todd Pletcher and Mark Casse, as well as Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan. It’ll be great to see the sport’s human and equine legends take their rightful places among the best in the history of the game, and I look forward to stopping by the Hall of Fame when I’m in upstate New York later this year.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Both New York’s Finest and Mondeuse were in front turning for home, but they both got caught. I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Today’s card is a great one, and I’ll focus on a few turf races. In the sixth, I’ll put $10 on #5 VALUE ENGINEERING to win and key him in $2 exactas above and below #2 SMILE BRYAN and #7 MO READY, who both hit me as live longshots. I’ll also put $10 to win on #10 LAZULI in the ninth (the Grade 3 Troy), and single that one in a cold $5 double that also includes #1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE in the nightcap.

TOTAL WAGERED: $33.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Answer In, Race 4
Longshot: Lazuli, Race 9

EV Racing entry
Barone Cesco
Emma’s Waltz

#1 NO MI CULPA: Tired in his debut, which came in an off-the-turf race back in May. He gets on what will likely be his preferred surface, adds blinkers for Rudy Rodriguez, and sports a sharp half-mile drill here on July 22nd that hints he’ll be ready to run; #8 BARONE CESCO: Has the bottom-side pedigree to suggest he’s well-meant in this spot. He’s out of a mare who won a stakes race on turf, and that mare has already thrown seven winners. His second dam, meanwhile, is a full sister to multiple stakes winner Annual Date; #3 EMMA’S WALTZ: Was a very cheap auction buy, fetching just $3,500, and that’s curious because he’s out of a mare that won a Grade 2 going long on the lawn. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride for a small outfit, and that seems noteworthy.

Malibu Pro
Dunph
Roaming Union

#8 MALIBU PRO: Was claimed out of his most recent race by Linda Rice, who drops him in for half of the claiming price. It’s an aggressive move from an aggressive barn, so I don’t see it as a red flag, and anything close to his early-2021 form would make him tough to beat; #3 DUNPH: Has run third in four consecutive outings, including his first start for this barn last time out. If nothing else, the two-turn route of ground won’t get him beat, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown; #7 ROAMING UNION: Hasn’t won in a while but attracts Joel Rosario for a barn that can heat up very, very quickly. Trainer Charlton Baker got off the duck Wednesday, and his wins sometimes come in bunches.

Rigney entry (MTO)
Single Soul
Longpants Required

#4 SINGLE SOUL: Came back running when winning her 2021 debut after not having run since a pair of November outings. Offspring of Dubawi usually don’t have issues going very, very long, and I think she’ll take a step forward second off the bench; #2 LONGPANTS REQUIRED: Adds blinkers for an astute barn and has run well going long on turf in the past. Blinkers are often an indication that a horse will show more early zip, and with the lack of pace in this field, that could give her a tactical advantage; #5 COASTANA: Ran well when second last time out in her first start against winners. This barn has found the winner’s circle a few times at this stand, and regular rider Luis Saez will once again be aboard.

Answer In
Wicked Trick
Jalen Journey

#4 ANSWER IN: Is a real handful when he’s right and exits what’s probably his career-best race. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and when Brad Cox gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #5 WICKED TRICK: Drops in class after three tries against graded stakes company downstate. Most notably, he was second in the Grade 3 Westchester going a mile, and while he’s good enough to win, I just think he wants a bit longer; #1 JALEN JOURNEY: Ran well twice against similar downstate and was second at this distance last month. He’s got a nose for the wire, with six wins in 14 career starts, and his record looks far better if you draw a line through his failed expedition to Dubai for the Group 1 Golden Shaheen.

Hot Anna
Violent Vixen
Airborne Gal

#7 HOT ANNA: Passed a few rivals in her debut, which isn’t easy to do, and she made that start for Ken McPeek, whose charges often need a race or two to get going. A step forward seems logical, and I think she presents a strong alternative to an entry I don’t like at all; #3 VIOLENT VIXEN: Has shown some zip in the mornings ahead of her debut, and while Charlton Baker’s horses don’t win much first time out, I don’t think she’ll need to be much to play a role in the outcome. The gate drills hint that she’s got some talent, and I think she’ll outrun her odds; #2 AIRBORNE GAL: Is another first-time starter, and she exits a solid half-mile drill here last week. Her work tab indicates that move wasn’t a fluke, and she may have enough speed to work out a trip from her tricky inside post.

Value Engineering
City Man
Zilla entry

#5 VALUE ENGINEERING: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that sort of effort would give him a chance in this wide-open optional claimer. I’m not crazy about the number of close losses on his record, but he’s probably faced better horses in his past few outings than the ones he’ll line up against here; #11 CITY MAN: Found Grade 1 waters too deep in the Manhattan and comes back to the right level here. His second-place finish in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy was very good, and that sort of effort would put him right there; #2 SMILE BRYAN: Got his nose down earlier in the meet and has a shot if he’s able to draw into this event. His record looks fat better if you toss his dirt races, as he’s a turf horse through and through.

Public Sector
Annex
Wolfie’s Dynaghost

#2 PUBLIC SECTOR: Rated behind a pretty slow pace in the Manila at Belmont and came up just a head short of a loose-on-the-lead winner. The pace should be considerably faster here, and that should allow this one’s class to shine through beneath Flavien Prat, who flies in for just one mount; #1 ANNEX: Is looking to right the ship after three straight defeats by open lengths following three straight wins at Gulfstream that opened his career. If he’s ever going to get back on track, though, it figures to be in a race with this sort of race shape, one that figures to set up for his late kick; #8 WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST: Tries the turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Like several others, he has plenty of early speed, but he showed in his debut that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which could prove important.

Art Collector
Jesus’ Team
Night Ops

#4 ART COLLECTOR: Was one of the top 3-year-olds in training in mid-2020 and has been transferred to the Bill Mott barn in an attempt to recapture that form. If he runs back to his efforts in races like the Grade 2 Blue Grass, he’ll be the one to beat in the Alydar; #7 JESUS’ TEAM: Is capable of big efforts, such as his second-place finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup earlier this season. He almost certainly needed his last-out effort after coming back from Dubai, and I’m expecting a step forward; #8 NIGHT OPS: Hasn’t won since last year’s Grade 3 Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows, but he’s been competitive against horses like Silver State and Mighty Heart. His recent work here was very sharp, and this spot makes plenty of sense, but it’s not like he hasn’t had chances, and that’s a concern.

Lazuli
Imprimis
Bound for Nowhere

#10 LAZULI: Has been running up against some very, very fast horses overseas and comes to the U.S. for Charles Appleby, who means business when he ships across the Atlantic. We’ve seen this before with horses like Althiqa, and his best could absolutely win the Grade 3 Troy; #7 IMPRIMIS: Has run one poor race in the last year and a half, and that stretch includes last year’s Troy, where he crossed the wire first but was disqualified. He’d stand to benefit from a fast pace, which seems likely, and he’s very logical here for a variety of reasons; #11 BOUND FOR NOWHERE: Doesn’t draw a great post and has certainly had his issues, but when he’s right, he’s one of the top turf sprinters on the planet. He cuts back a sixteenth of a mile for this one, and he’ll loom large if Joel Rosario can work out a trip from the far outside.

R10

Bold Victory (MTO)
Digital Software
The Big Grey

#1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Is a very logical, formidable favorite in the Friday finale. He’s yet to run a poor race, including in his 2021 return, when he probably moved a bit early yet still finished a good second. Any move forward from that effort would make him a handful for this bunch; #7 THE BIG GREY: Almost certainly needed his debut effort and drops in class for his second career outing. His two recent half-mile drills were very sharp, and seeing Jose Ortiz aboard this 12-1 shot raises a few eyebrows; #8 THE ANGRY MAN: Goes second off the bench and retains John Velazquez after sputtering badly in an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet. He was second against straight maidens twice over this turf course last summer, and he’s certainly better than he showed in his last start.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/5/21)

Posted on August 3, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,265.90

When I was a kid, my dad and I would go to Lake George every summer. We’d have marathon miniature golf matches across various courses, and we’d bring our own putters from place to place. I still have some of the scorecards in my bedroom at his house.

That’s one of many reasons what happened earlier this week at Goony Golf brought a smile to my face. For those unfamiliar, Andy Serling and Anthony Stabile were participants in a miniature golf match that drew attention from several generous supporters, including Kirk Wycoff and Louis Lazzinarro. By the time they putted out on the 18th hole, more than $100,000 was raised for several charities that do fantastic work within the racing community.

Kudos to all who were involved in this endeavor. Also, should anyone need two ringers for a similar match down the road, my dad and I are available and still carry our putters in the trunks of our cars. In my case, my clubs are next to six bowling balls, because you never know when middle-aged male warfare will break out.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Mach One gave me a thrill in the second race, but the favorite I attempted to beat found a seam at the top of the stretch and rallied to the front. After scratches, I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play a pair of $10 win tickets on turf horses that seem well-meant at reasonable prices. #9 NEW YORK’S FINEST returns to his favorite track in the third, and #3 MONDEUSE looks like the main speed in the finale. If one of them wins, it’s a good day. If both win, it turns into a great one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wartime Hero, Race 5
Longshot: New York’s Finest, Race 3

Sea Pines (MTO)
I’m So Sorry
Mystic Eyes

#2 I’M SO SORRY: Is entered on Wednesday and may run there, but if she doesn’t, she hits me as the one to beat in the Thursday lid-lifter. She’s by Uncle Mo, her dam was a Grade 3 winner on both turf and synthetic, and she’s posted several strong drills here over the past month; #1 MYSTIC EYES: Boasts the formidable Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez tag team and a pedigree that suggests she’ll be a good one. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter and a half-sister to champion Boston Harbor, but that begs the question, why did she only sell for a modest $40,000 at auction last September?; #4 RAW HONEY: Is another first-time starter that has some pedigree to her. Her dam is a full sister to a nine-time winner and a half-sister to a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and sire Bal a Bali did plenty of damage on turf.

Moon Over Ny
Danny Deep Cuts
Lass

#2 MOON OVER NY: Debuts in this spot and may not need to be much to top this bunch. She worked well enough at Finger Lakes to justify a trip to the Spa, and this barn doesn’t ship horses in from central New York just for kicks; #8 DANNY DEEP CUTS: Was bet a bit in her debut back in May and didn’t have the best of trips that day. The outside post is a plus, but there was a voided claim out of that event, and the fact that she missed a bit of training after her unveiling is a red flag; #5 LASS: Ran reasonably well when third last time out at Belmont against open maiden claimers and goes back to the state-bred ranks here. She’ll also get Lasix for the first time in this spot, and it’s not like she needs to step forward much to get a big piece of this one.

Ninth Hour (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Chimney Rock

#9 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Loves going short over this turf course and sure looks like the main speed here. Aggressive rider Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and if he’s able to get comfortable on the front end, he could wind up with his sixth Saratoga victory; #7 CHIMNEY ROCK: Has loads of back class and was even second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. His last two starts were steps back, figures-wise, and this is a significant drop for an aggressive barn that’s achieved great success so far this summer; #3 ENCRYPTED: Had every right to need his most recent effort at Presque Isle, which was his first start since August of 2019. His European form was quite good, and if he runs back to some of those numbers, he’ll have a big chance at a big price.

Wicked Indeed (MTO)
Risk Manager
Panster

#10 RISK MANAGER: Goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan, and unlike most of this field, he’s shown an ability to rate and pass others late. I think the pace will be hotly-contested in this event, and that should set things up for a closer to pick up the pieces; #1 PANSTER: Tries two turns for the first time and is bred to want such a route. He closed from fourth to break his maiden two starts ago at Belmont, and a similar trip would put him in a strong position turning for home; #2 TURN OF EVENTS: Capitalized on a perfect, front-running trip to top claiming foes last time out. He’ll likely go early, and his best race can certainly win this, but there are rivals in the field (including one directly to his outside) that could force him to spend far more energy going into the first turn.

Wartime Hero
Z’finale
Magnificent Chrome

#1 WARTIME HERO: Has found a very, very soft spot for his return to the races. He’s been gelded since running fifth in the 2020 Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, but he’s one of only a few in here with a win going two turns on dirt, and if he’s anything close to what he was in 2020, the race will probably be for second; #8 Z’FINALE: Was fifth downstate at this level last time out, but that effort came against what was probably a better group. His two and three-back efforts weren’t bad, and he’s got enough tactical speed to be prominent early; #6 MAGNIFICENT CHROME: Merits a look at a big price solely base don his pedigree. Offspring of California Chrome are not sprinters, and this is the first time he’ll go two turns. That alone could move him up and into contention for a minor award.

Daufuskie Island (MTO)
No Time Alone
Boriman

#5 NO TIME ALONE: Took to the turf well when second at second asking downstate last month. Wesley Ward is as good as anyone with 2-year-olds, especially on the lawn, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back; #1 BORIMAN: Gets a tricky draw in his unveiling but could be good enough to overcome it. The July 22nd workout jumps off the page, he’s a half-brother to stakes winner Fog Alert, and second dam Rocket Alert won several high-level turf races overseas; #9 ERIDROMOS: Comes in with a solid turf pedigree and a pretty strong work tab. His dam was a stakes-winning 2-year-old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was ready to go at first asking.

Air Show (MTO)
Landbiscuit
Mr. Kringle

#7 LANDBISCUIT: Is a tepid top selection in a wide-open turf race. He’s never run a clunker in four career races, and he showed a new dimension when stalking and pouncing to win an off-the-turf event last time out; #5 MR. KRINGLE: Has a history of finding trouble but is certainly good enough to make an impact with smooth sailing. He was second and third in two races at this level last summer, so we know he likes it up here; #2 MYSTERY BANK: Likely needed his return to the races last month at Gulfstream, so I can draw a line through that effort. He won and ran third in two starts here a season ago, and if there’s any hesitation here, it’s because the barn has been ice-cold since winning an off-the-turf race very early in the meet.

Irish Valor
Here’s Waldo
Our Man Mike

#4 IRISH VALOR: Is one of a few Finger Lakes shippers, and those always get my attention in lower-level state-bred races at Saratoga. He’s a consistent gelding with nine wins and 27 in-the-money finishes in 43 starts, and this barn doesn’t ship here for an excuse to travel; #8 HERE’S WALDO: Tried stakes company in central New York and probably found those waters a bit too deep. He stretches back out to two turns, may be the main speed in this event, and could lead them a long way at a nice number; #1 OUR MAN MIKE: Comes in off a failed turf experiment and may go favored based on his back class. He was second in a pair of stakes races last fall and won going a mile, but he’s never gone two turns before, and that may make him a bit tough to back at his likely price.

Lone Rock
Moretti
You’re to Blame

#3 LONE ROCK: Has won six of his last seven starts and looms large in the marathon Birdstone Stakes. His win in the Grade 2 Brooklyn was electric, and the next-out win by that day’s runner-up only enhances his stock coming into this event; #4 MORETTI: Won this event last year to cap off a run that also included a second behind Tacitus in the Grade 2 Suburban. He did improve in this year’s Suburban after being drubbed by Lone Rock in the Brooklyn, and a repeat of last year’s effort likely gets him a big piece of this; #6 YOU’RE TO BLAME: Took a gigantic step forward in his first start for Orlando Noda and dives back into the stakes waters here. He was second behind Moretti in last year’s event, and perhaps he’s just a runner that loves this oval.

R10

Mondeuse
Lazzinnaro entry
Escapewithfriends

#3 MONDEUSE: Looks like the main speed in here and did everything but win in a race at this level and distance downstate. Her running lines feature plenty of next-out winners, including the third-place finisher in that most recent event; #1 BELLA PRINCIPESSA: Goes back to the lawn after tiring to finish fourth in an off-the-turf event last month. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, as he likely had several options in this wide-open Thursday finale; #9 ESCAPEWITHFRIENDS: Rallied from last to be second in her debut despite not having much pace to chase in that six-furlong event. Her pedigree says two turns should not be an issue, and if another runner or two tests my top pick early, this one could be the main beneficiary.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/4/21)

Posted on August 2, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,290.60

I had a good weekend, for a variety of reasons. Some did not care for how I celebrated it, and I feel the need to briefly explain a few things.

For 10 months, the big mouths/egos on Twitter can go back and forth about who the best public/semi-public handicapper is.

From mid-July to Labor Day, at one of horse racing's last cathedrals? If your conversation doesn't start with me, it's a bad one.#Saratoga #OutWorkEveryone pic.twitter.com/IZeXvvRb5h

— Andrew Champagne (@AndrewChampagne) July 31, 2021

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Between my work for The Pink Sheet and other freelance outlets, I’m writing at least 10,000 words per week through Labor Day. This is in addition to videos and podcasts I do, and it all comes on top of a full-time job as the Communications and Marketing Manager at SHELTER, Inc., a non-profit in Northern California’s Bay Area that fights the homelessness crisis.

I do this because I’m extremely passionate about the game, and because I love producing content people enjoy and use as tools to make money. For me, there’s no better feeling than when good content becomes winning content, and that’s my biggest motivation, far above both “selfish pride” and “money in the bank.”

When that happens, you bet I’m going to show plenty of fire. Without that fire, my content wouldn’t be nearly as sharp, I’d be a far less proficient horseplayer, and you probably wouldn’t be reading my stuff, either in print or online. This sport can’t survive without passionate people. I’m proud to say I’m one of them, and if you enjoy my stuff and the way I do things, thank you.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, rotten luck. My stance against the favorite in the Sunday opener proved correct, but when an 0-for-24 maiden with a horrible post position got home first, my $36 worth of Pick Five tickets went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: My action comes pretty early, as I’ll focus on the second race of the day. If #6 MACH ONE’s turf form comes to dirt on the class drop for an aggressive outfit, I think he’s got a big shot. I’ll put $15 on him to win and single him in $5 doubles ending with #3 TAKE THE BACKROADS, #8 CEE ARE EM, and #13 I’M SO SORRY in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Empress of War, Race 6
Longshot: Mach One, Race 2

Perfect Tapatino
Chetzeron
Ritzy A.P.

#2 PERFECT TAPATINO: Won his first start over fences in May before trying much tougher company last time out. He was fifth in a stakes race, and that day’s runner-up, Baltimore Bucko, came right back to take the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick earlier this summer; #7 CHETZERON: Was never challenged in a runaway score against maidens and faces winners for the first time. What he beat that day is anyone’s guess, but it sure seems like he’s got plenty of early zip, and if he’s got talent, he could lead them a long way; #3 RITZY A.P.: Graduated out of the steeplechase maiden ranks last time out at Colonial and chased my top pick two back in his first start over fences. He showed plenty of ability on the flat, where he was a stakes-placed runner.

Mach One
Cousin Andrew
Leading West

#6 MACH ONE: Takes a big drop for an aggressive barn and goes from turf to dirt. His recent drills look very impressive, he sure seems like the main early speed in this event, and his turf form is certainly good enough if he can replicate it on the main track; #7 COUSIN ANDREW: Will certainly take plenty of money dropping into the maiden claiming ranks for Chad Brown. However, I have my doubts. This barn’s Monmouth shippers seem like the B-team, and it’s not like his figures tower over the competition here; #4 LEADING WEST: Hasn’t run since September but can’t be ignored, especially given the success of trainer Mike Maker this summer. The last two five-furlong works look sharp, and he could stand to benefit if there’s a speed duel up front.

Take the Backroads
I’m So Sorry
Cee Are Em

#3 TAKE THE BACKROADS: Tries turf for the first time and has the pedigree to love it. She’s a half to both Grade 3 winner Sistas Stroll and stakes-placed Accredit, who did their damage on grass, and her speed and experience edges over most of these could be big advantages; #13 I’M SO SORRY: Needs luck to draw in but must be respected if she does. She’s by Uncle Mo, her dam was a Grade 3 winner on both turf and synthetic, and she’s posted several strong drills here over the past month; #8 CEE ARE EM: Has a world-class turf pedigree, as she’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and sire Data Link. Her dam is also a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Vespers, who doubles as the dam of Grade 1 hero Hymn Book.

Coffee Bar
Enough Love
Ifihadachance

#4 COFFEE BAR: Makes her second start off the bench and didn’t run terribly in her return last month. She stretches out to two turns in this one, and her lone start over such a configuration saw her run a competitive second in a stakes race at Aqueduct; #6 ENOUGH LOVE: Ships up from Parx and runs in New York for the first time since last September. She’s better now than she was then, and she’s shown she can go two turns, which is a question mark for several of her competitors; #2 IFIHADACHANCE: Was second against similar going a mile last time out downstate, but she hasn’t won in quite a while and goes two turns for the first time since last September. She was a distant fourth at Finger Lakes that day, and her 9/5 morning line price hits me as an underlay.

Shaker Shack (MTO)
Sport Model
Funwhileitlasted

#5 SPORT MODEL: Has won both turf races she’s finished, including a similar New York Stallion Series race downstate. Her pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be an issue, and the tag team of Irad Ortiz, Jr., and Christophe Clement must be respected; #1 FUNWHILEITLASTED: Was second in that event and rallied from seventh to finish just a half-length back of my top pick. Based off of that effort, she fits, although two turns is a question mark; #6 BIG TIME LADY: Didn’t make the lead last time out and never fired as a result. There seems to be a little less early zip signed on here, and she was a solid third in an ungraded stakes race going two turns late last year.

Empress of War
Shamalamadingdong
Fancy Feline

#3 EMPRESS OF WAR: Ran very well in her debut over a muddy track at Belmont before an adventurous journey cost her all chance last time out. She’s since switched barns, and new trainer Michael Miceli has hit at a solid 19% clip with new acquisitions; #4 SHAMALAMADINGDONG: Stalked a very slow pace downstate and couldn’t get by the winner. Despite the fact that those two were more than 11 lengths clear of the rest, that’s a red flag, and I just can’t back her at or near her morning line price; #7 FANCY FELINE: Didn’t take to the turf last time out and may have bounced off of a decent third in her unveiling downstate. The outside draw seems like a plus, and Luis Saez seeing fit to ride back is certainly a plus.

Montauk Daddy
Wild William
Our Destiny

#1 MONTAUK DADDY: Drew the rail and has the early speed necessary to take advantage of that post position. The Rob Atras barn has had plenty of success at this stand, and it’s easy to see him making the lead and being very tough to catch; #9 WILD WILLIAM: Had every right to need his last-out effort, which came off a six-month break. It’s safe to assume something went wrong in the two-back race as well, and given his strong local record, I think there’s reason to expect a step forward here at a nice price; #5 OUR DESTINY: Has won two in a row and ships to the Spa, where he owns a win in his lone prior start at this route. The question is, does he have enough speed to outpace my top pick, or will he be stuck dueling for the lead off the rail going into the turn?

Bayerness
Casual
Aunt Kat

#1 BAYERNESS: Has kept very good company and exits a second-place finish in a listed stakes race at Monmouth Park. She was third in a Grade 3 at Belmont two back, and that day’s runner-up came back to run a big second in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss here last week; #4 CASUAL: Merits respect for trainer Steve Asmussen and will likely do her best running late. Her best race would put her right there, although the recent work pattern seems atypical of horses from this outfit; #2 AUNT KAT: Reeled off three straight wins downstate and makes her first start against stakes foes here. The recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma track is encouraging, though I think she may need to expend more energy to hit the front here than she has in her last several outings.

Danny California (MTO)
En Wye Cee
L’Imperator

#1 EN WYE CEE: Has clearly had his issues given the long layoffs, but has shown ample talent and will have every chance if he’s ready to run. He was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker, and his versatility should be a big advantage here; #2 L’IMPERATOR: Has only run in the U.S. once, and it came in a race contested over one of the softest turf courses in Saratoga history. That dud is a complete throw-out, and he merits respect for the Brown barn in his 2021 debut; #3 EVER DANGEROUS: Has plenty of back class and pulled off a 74-1 shocker in a stakes race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. He’s since run several decent races at Gulfstream and Churchill and could have a say here in a stacked optional claiming event.

R10

Trumpet Lilly (MTO)
Ocean Air
Viburnum

#10 OCEAN AIR: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale where it seems like half the field could conceivably win. She’s finished second in back-to-back tries at this level downstate, and her usual race would absolutely give her a big chance here; #13 VIBURNUM: Hasn’t won in a while but hits me as a contender if she’s able to draw in off the AE list. She was a tough-luck second going two turns at Delaware Park last time out, and the faster the early pace is, the better her chances figure to be; #8 EVIDENCE BASED: Comes back to her preferred surface after struggling in an off-the-turf event earlier in the meet. Her two-back effort at Belmont was very good, and while she switched barns after that race, a re-channeling of that form could be enough for her to make an impact at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/1/21)

Posted on July 31, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,326.60

Predictably, horse racing Twitter had very animated reactions to the jockey introductions prior to Saturday’s Jim Dandy Stakes. As I stated when they initially rolled these out a few years ago, I don’t have a problem with them. If they don’t scare horses, and if jockeys are fine with the added bells and whistles, it’s a-OK with me.

We need to do more to celebrate the people who bust their butts every day to keep the industry’s wheels turning. Given that jockeys do some of the most dangerous work in all of sports, any chance we can get to recognize them should be taken and run with. For that reason, along with a few others (I’m a wrestling fan, after all), I endorse the intros, provided they’re kept in moderation and saved for the biggest races on the calendar.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Between the exacta I hit on the Kentucky Derby undercard and the one I hit in the A.G. Vanderbilt, Lexitonian is rocketing up my “favorite horses of all-time” list. Pick Threes fizzled after we ran second in the first leg, but the $2 exacta box connected for $367. My only regret is that I didn’t play the trifecta, which included all three horses I used and came back at $525 for a 50-cent bet.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Five, which of course kicks off in the first race of the day. My 50-cent ticket looks like this: 1,5,10 with 3,5 with 1,7 with 9,10 with 1,3,7. I usually set my sights on Pick Fours, but I feel #2 EVERESTING is very vulnerable at 2-1 in the opener, and beating that one may knock plenty of tickets out right away.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 9
Longshot: Kenner, Race 5

Bush entry
Thruster
Uncle Mo’s Cat

BUSH ENTRY: The same barn houses two contenders in a wide-open Sunday opener. I prefer #1A CONGRATS FOR GLORY, whose two-back effort was pretty solid and would be a contender should he return to that form; #10 THRUSTER: Is a deep closer, which means he may need an ideal setup but also that the far outside post shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Jose Ortiz could be able to drop him back out of the gate, save ground, and come running late; #5 UNCLE MO’S CAT: Was a decent third last time out over yielding going downstate, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back. He’s run like a horse that will improve with experience, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

Popular Vote (MTO)
Silvery Rill
Blissful

#5 SILVERY RILL: Is bred to want precisely this race as her first career outing. She’s by all-world sire War Front, out of Grade 3 turf winner Stays in Vegas, and boasts the formidable tag team of Joel Rosario and trainer Christophe Clement; #3 BLISSFUL: Hammered for $350,000 earlier this year and is bred to be a strong turf horse. Her dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner on the lawn, and her full sister, Keri Belle, took down a Grade 3 of her own during her racing days; #4 WATERVILLE: Is the “other” Christophe Clement trainee here and could have some potential. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy is out of a graded stakes winner that has thrown four prior winners, including multiple stakes winner Sea Foam.

Lookin for Loki
Eucharist
Full Court Press

#1 LOOKIN FOR LOKI: Has plenty of back form and takes a huge drop in class off the claim by Danny Gargan. Over the past three years, Gargan is 5-for-7 with new acquisitions dropping by 50% or more in claiming price, and his best can absolutely beat this bunch; #7 EUCHARIST: Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out, and he may very well have been rusty given the long layoff. He’s another class-dropper, and perhaps he’ll be more ready to go for the red-hot Mike Maker barn in this spot; #2 FULL COURT PRESS: Was taken off the pace last time out but still managed to run third that day. It’s possible these connections discovered some flexibility here, and there certainly seems to be plenty of early speed signed on to set up for his newfound late kick.

Tenderness (MTO)
Jill’s a Hot Mess
Translate

#9 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Found her form after being switched to the turf two starts ago, and she’ll make her first outing for new conditioner Linda Rice here. On paper, it’s a step up in class, but on figures, she absolutely fits and could be in line for a new career-best given Rice’s record with new acquisitions; #10 TRANSLATE: Was in strong form earlier this year, when she ran well plenty of times out west. The outside post isn’t ideal, and her form has taken a step back since coming east, but her best could absolutely thump her rivals; #4 LILLY SIMONE: Earned her diploma last time out in her first start for a tag. I’m not sure what she beat in that event, but she looked good doing it and this isn’t the toughest spot to run against winners for the first time.

Rotknee
Whittington Park
Kenner

#3 ROTKNEE: Debuted with a good second at Belmont and finished nearly five lengths clear of the third-place finisher. His lone work since that effort was a bullet drill downstate, and he’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking for the hottest barn on the circuit; #1 WHITTINGTON PARK: Debuts for Brad Cox and may very well be good enough to overcome the rail draw. His dam has thrown four runners, and they’ve all won multiple times, including multiple stakes winner Critical Value; #7 KENNER: Has a very interesting work tab and ships up from Delaware Park for a barn that doesn’t run many in New York. His second dam is graded stakes winner Lovely Lil, who has thrown three winners, including recent first-out victor American Xperiment.

Foxtail (MTO)
Miss Teheran
New York Girl

#5 MISS TEHERAN: Hasn’t run a bad race since coming across the pond after the 2018 season. She goes to a two-turn route of ground here, and she’s run her best races over similar configurations. Between that and the presence of legitimate early speed, I think this Chad Brown trainee will get an optimal setup; #1 NEW YORK GIRL: Has spent this year tackling graded stakes competition, and she’s better than she showed in the Grade 1 Just A Game on Belmont Stakes Day. Her back class is evident, and if she can work out a trip from her tricky inside post, she could be in a position to stalk and pounce turning for home; #7 ENOLA GAY: Won last year’s Grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland, but hasn’t run since September. She was fifth in the rich Saratoga Oaks over this turf course a season ago, and she could have a big say in this one if she’s ready to run off of such a long layoff.

Aloha West
Night Time
Town Classic

#6 ALOHA WEST: Gets a tepid nod in a tricky optional claiming event. He was most recently fourth in a minor stakes race at Churchill Downs, and that day’s winner, Bango, has since come back to win again. If he’s able to rate behind a fast pace, he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #7 NIGHT TIME: Hasn’t won since this meet last year, when he prevailed over allowance company. He ran reasonably well last month at Churchill in his first race since November, and he’s good enough to win if he’s fully-cranked; #3 TOWN CLASSIC: Broke through when dropped in for a tag at Belmont and was claimed that day by Mike Maker. He’s hit the board in 38 of 52 career starts, and his 97 Beyer Speed Figure from that romp is by far the highest such last-out number in the field.

Bayshore Foxes (MTO)
Mirabell Mei
Summer in the City

#2 MIRABELL MEI: Hasn’t won in a while but is entered for a tag for the first time in a while. She’s run reasonably well twice this season against starter allowance foes. This seems like a weaker bunch, and her chances would get even better if a solid early pace is set that sets up for her late-running style; #10 SUMMER IN THE CITY: Was rated last time out against starter allowance foes, and that probably isn’t what she wants to do. She’s usually up far closer to the pace, and if she gets that kind of trip on the drop in class, she’ll have every chance to win this; #6 AMORTIZATION: Will run for a tag for the first time in her young career. Between that and the presence of top trainer Chad Brown, she may make a lot of sense to some. Personally, I see works at Monmouth Park as a big red flag for this outfit, but based on numbers, she absolutely fits here.

Jackie’s Warrior
Crowded Trade
Drain the Clock

#3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Did everything but win last time in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He broke slowly, rushed up, did all the dirty work while setting a fast pace, and was beaten just a neck. If he gets out to a cleaner start in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, I think the race could be for second money; #6 CROWDED TRADE: Was scratched from an allowance race earlier in the meet but has been working well enough to where I’m seeing his entry here as a sign of confidence. The outside post is a plus, and his only prior start going short was a first-out win at Aqueduct; #2 DRAIN THE CLOCK: Benefited from Jackie’s Warrior’s poor start last time out and has done very little wrong, winning six of eight career starts to date. This barn, however, has gone a bit cold of late, and the 97 Beyer Speed Figure last time out was a new career-high by 11 points. He’s good enough to win, but perhaps he’s in line for a bounce, and 2-1 seems a bit short for my liking.

R10

Esotica
Not a Trace
Know It All Red

#1 ESOTICA: Ran a career-best race when third in the slop at Belmont back in May. She’s got enough speed to use the inside draw to her advantage, and that and her back form are enough to make her my tepid top pick in the Sunday finale; #10 NOT A TRACE: Was third in an off-the-turf race on Independence Day, and her form suggests she may have been a dirt horse all along. She was a good second three starts back, and she’s got enough speed to be on or near the lead from the first jump; #4 KNOW IT ALL RED: Has run second in back-to-back tries against similar, and the last-out effort came with a wide trip and resulted in her highest career Beyer Speed Figure. There may be enough speed in here to provide a friendly race shape, and at least we know she can pass horses in the later stages.