THE DARK DAY FILES: Entries, Purse Money Only, and Lots of Preventable Headaches

I have a rule of thumb at the racetrack, and it’s a simple one: If you have an opinion on a horse, and you bet it, and you’re right, you should be rewarded for it.

This sounds like a given, and it should be. However, the events leading up to Sunday’s first race at Saratoga turned this concept on its ear.

Here’s what happened, in as few words as I can muster: One of two coupled Joe Sharp trainees scratched at the gate. By New York law, the other half of the entry was forced to run for purse money only, and no wagers would be taken on the horse. That horse won as much the best, but for wagering purposes, the runner-up was declared the “winner.”

The aforementioned law, as it’s been explained to me, is on the books as an attempt to protect bettors. However, let me ask this question: If you’re a gambler, and you were betting the entry because of the horse that ran (as opposed to the horse that scratched), exactly how are you being protected? The only thing that’s protected, in this case, is the cash residing on the track’s end of the betting windows, as they’re refunding your wager rather than paying out a win.

This isn’t just an issue with straight, one-race bets. There have been issues with this in multi-race wagers, as well. The one that stands out to me came a few summers ago at Saratoga. I spread pretty deep in a Pick Four that included a 2-year-old race, and one of the betting interests I used was an entry trained by Edward Barker. Before the race, a part of the entry named Yorkiepoo Princess (who went on to win three stakes races) scratched, leaving just stablemate Kissin Cassie to run for purse money only.

You can guess where this is going. Kissin Cassie won by two lengths (she was about 8-1 or so when her stablemate scratched), and the horse that ran second was a 33-1 shot I did not have on my tickets (nor did pretty much anyone else, judging by the eventual payoffs). I was right to use the entry. The connections of the entry celebrated a victory. Those who bet the entry, however, were left with no profits to show for their astute handicapping.

Explain the concept of, “being right to bet a horse to win, but not winning,” to a novice horse racing fan, and the fan’s head might explode. It should never happen, yet it happens several times a year on the NYRA circuit. These are the simple things we need to clean up if racing is to survive once sports betting becomes widely legalized. If I bet the Michigan Wolverines to beat Notre Dame, and they beat Notre Dame, I expect to collect money. The same principle should apply to horse racing, and it’s not rocket science to think that.

I understand why multi-horse entries exist. Having said that, it’s entirely possible the concept has outlived its usefulness. Southern California does not have entries, and as a result, the circuit does not have this problem. Furthermore, since horse racing’s top level is being populated by fewer and fewer trainers, there are races where entries do not serve their intended purpose.

As an example of this statement, I submit Saratoga’s third race from the August 2nd program. It was a maiden special weight event for turf horses, and Chad Brown had three entrants. Two were coupled (#1 Business Cycle, a main-track-only runner who scratched, and #1A Frontier Market). A third, #3 Hizeem, was not part of the entry, which defies the very principle of entries. If entries exist to protect the public by coupling horses that share owners and/or trainers, why was one Chad Brown trainee not coupled with the other two? This holds especially true since one of the runners would only run if the race was rained off the turf, and in that circumstance, it’s highly likely that at least one of the other Chad Brown-trained runners would scratch. With that in mind, a three-horse entry would have been very improbable and should not have been seen as a bad thing.

The procedures here seem inconsistent to me, and it doesn’t pass the test of being able to explain the concept to a casual fan in less than 15 seconds. If I’m a fan, and I have a discretionary amount of money with which to bet, why would I want to spend all of this time trying to understand principles that don’t make sense? In much less time than it would take to wrap my head around these concepts, I can look up a game preview, read 300 words on the participants, and have enough substance to formulate wagering opinions on that contest.

I believe that we’d be smart to treat every issue this game has with fan education and retention at the forefront. I am not a, “THE SKY IS FALLING!,” type who believes every little issue could be the downfall of horse racing. In fact, my views are far from that. I earnestly believe there are a lot of people in the sport that genuinely want it to succeed and prosper in an age where gambling, in theory, will have less of a stigma attached to it. However, when the sports betting folks get their ducks in a row, and when that provides real competition to horse racing, we’d better be ready with a customer-friendly product that attracts people and keeps them coming back.

There are big problems the sport has that will take a lot of thought to solve. Those will all need time, unity, and, in some cases, short-term sacrifices to fix. However, there are problems we can deal with right away with very little effort that will make it easier to attract and keep new fans, and this is one of them.

In lieu of a better solution (and if someone has one, I’m all ears), NYRA and other organizations that still have multi-horse entries should treat each horse as a separate betting interest. The rules that are on the books are not working as intended, and they’re costing players money rather than ensuring they’re protected. Changes to these procedures and policies would be to the benefit of everyone involved, and they would prevent issues like the ones that arose Sunday at Saratoga from happening again.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/6/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $700.50

I hate having to use this space to explain archaic betting rules, but here we are. In Sunday’s first race, part of a Joe Sharp-trained entry was a late scratch. By rule, the other half of the entry ran for purse money only and was not an available betting interest. Of course, the other half of the entry won as much the best, and the second-place finisher was deemed the winner for wagering purposes. It’s a weird rule that’s burned a lot of horseplayers in the past, and I wish there was a better one in place (as I’ve explained in this section in the past and will explain again in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which goes live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night).

As far as the pick box is concerned, both the Sharp entry and runner-up Into Mystic were marked as winners. The lone handicapper who had the Sharp entry on top had Into Mystic second, so he would’ve scratched into the wagering “winner” anyway. We agreed that this seemed like the fairest way to go about it. Hopefully, that sits well with everyone, and hopefully, we never have to deal with such a situation again!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We were alive to Timeline in the Grand Slam, but that one sputtered turning for home as Realm pulled off a big upset. We dropped $24.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I like two horses on today’s program that figure to be bettable prices. I’ll put $5 to win and place on #1 OVER RIDER (race one) and #3 MARCH X PRESS (race eight, turf only). If one wins, it’s probably a profitable day. If both win, we stand to make a really nice chunk of change.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Therapist, Race 2
Longshot: March X Press, Race 8

R1

Over Rider
Bon Raison
Playwright

#1 OVER RIDER: Likely needed his last race and drops way down in class. His best efforts have come in dirt routes, and he could get plenty of pace to rate behind in this spot; #4 BON RAISON: Takes an alarming drop to run here for one of the highest-percentage barns on the circuit. He’s certainly got back races that would win this, but the degree of the drop is a red flag; #7 PLAYWRIGHT: Was second against similar-level foes last time out downstate and makes sense given his early zip. He’s shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and that could be a big help.

R2

Therapist
Stoney Bennett (MTO)
Collective Effort

#2 THERAPIST: Is incredibly imposing given his wins over open company. He cruised home against state-breds last time out at Belmont, and his usual race would make him very tough to beat; #7 COLLECTIVE EFFORT: Chased Therapist home last time out and has woken up since being switched to the turf. He figures to be running well late; #1 CODRINGTON: Makes sense if you can toss her last-out effort, and the yielding turf seems like an OK reason to draw a line through the running line. She could appreciate firmer ground and may be a price.

R3

Devils Halo
Ajnadeen
Hollywood Star

#4 DEVILS HALO: Was impressive in his debut before going very fast early on last time out. He still hung on for fourth and was beaten less than two lengths, and less speed being present here can only help him; #2 AJNADEEN: Was second in a swiftly-run allowance downstate. He certainly fits here, although I’m not sure he’s as fast as my top selection; #3 HOLLYWOOD STAR: Spent most of his career running against graded stakes horses and drops into the allowance ranks for his first start since March. His one-turn efforts are sharp, and while he may need the race, there’s a chance this is the route he wants.

R4

Chiclet’s Dream
Chestnut Street
Shanghai Dreams

#5 CHICLET’S DREAM: Was a solid second in her first start since November last time out. She should improve second off the layoff, and she’s half of a very strong one-two punch for trainer Chad Brown; #8 CHESTNUT STREET: Just missed last time out at Belmont, and that race’s winner came right back to win earlier this meet. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that there isn’t a lot of early speed for her to chase; #12 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Was fourth in a solid sprint in her career debut. If she draws in off the AE list, she’ll add Lasix, and this barn does well with stretchouts.

R5

Captain Gaughen
Major Force
Sheikh of Sheikhs

#6 CAPTAIN GAUGHEN: Has won two of his last three and figures to be running well late. His win at this distance last time out was sharp, and there’s plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick; #7 MAJOR FORCE: Comes back to the claiming ranks after being beaten two lengths in an allowance at Belmont. He won two in a row before that, and he’s never really run a bad race on turf; #9 SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS: Has won two in a row and goes to the barn of Eddie Kenneally, who’s very good with new acquisitions. He may be better on turf, but this outfit knows how to win turf sprints, and he’s shown plenty of talent in the past.

R6

London House
Internet of Things
Stop Me If You Can

#6 LONDON HOUSE: Fetched $110,000 at auction earlier this year despite a very average pedigree, and he’s been working lights-out at Belmont. The two five-furlong drills jump off the page, and he’ll be tough if he runs to those works; #9 INTERNET OF THINGS: Has a sharp recent work to his credit ahead of his debut for the powerhouse Chad Brown barn. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because she’s bred to go longer than she’ll run here; #4 STOP ME IF YOU CAN: Adds blinkers and has an experience edge over this group. He was second against similar foes last time out and could improve with the equipment change.

R7

Palinodie
Silver Shaker
Osare

#3 PALINODIE: Hasn’t won since 2016, but she’s run very well against graded stakes company and seems to have a major pace advantage on this group. She could be the lone early speed in the race, and as a result could sit a dream trip; #5 SILVER SHAKER: Has run second three times in a row, and was favored on two of those occasions. An unexpected pace meltdown would certainly help her cause, and the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #6 OSARE: Got up in the last stride to graduate at second asking. Arrogate’s younger half-sister has a right to improve with experience, especially for a high-percentage trainer.

R8

Camorra (MTO)
March X Press
Mentality

#3 MARCH X PRESS: Went 2 for 2 here last year and returns to her favorite route. Further helping her cause is what looks like an abundance of early speed, which could set up for her late-running style; #7 MENTALITY: Was a close-up third against state-bred stakes foes last time out. She could appreciate the cutback in distance, and her tactical speed is a plus (especially since she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well); #10 ELOWEASEL: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown an affinity for running well late. This race could set up for that sort of running style, so a minor award is certainly plausible.

R9

Merger of Banks
Giant Boo Boo
Global Impact

#6 MERGER OF BANKS: Is 0 for 14 and will likely be favored, which is usually a horse I go against, but he gets a hugely positive trainer switch from an 0 for 43 conditioner to Rudy Rodriguez. There doesn’t appear to be much other early speed signed on, so this could be a “now or never” spot; #1 GIANT BOO BOO: Has run second in both of his prior dirt starts and makes his first outing for Jeremiah Englehart, who claimed him last time out. The rail draw in such a big field isn’t ideal, but he’s certainly a logical alternative to the likely chalk; #7 GLOBAL IMPACT: Has ramped up the works of late, and the most recent four-furlong drill on the training track says he’s ready to run. This is far from an imposing group, so a first-time starter winning wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/5/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $724.50

Several times in this section over the past few years, I’ve preached the value of some of the forgotten exotics wagers on the menu. Yesterday, one of them gave bettors a real opportunity to make some money. The fourth-race winner was The Caretaker, who came off the main-track-only list and won at odds of 8/5. The fifth-race winner was Uni, the 5/2 co-favorite in the De La Rose. The $2 daily double paid $17.80.

This may not sound like much, but turning two short prices into that sort of return is a way to create value. You won’t retire off of returns like that, but eagle-eyed handicappers that take a more grind-it-out approach to the game appreciate those opportunities.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I was right to play against Cuarenta, who didn’t run a jump in the third race. However, none of the three horses I boxed in exactas cracked the top two, meaning a loss of $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on another forgotten exotic, the Grand Slam. It starts in the seventh, assumes races carded for the turf stay there, and singles best bet #3 TIMELINE in the Alydar Stakes to finish it out. My $2 ticket is as follows: 4,7,8 with 5,6 with 1,3 with 3.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday’s Results: 2 for 9
Meer Results (to date): 37 for 137

Best Bet: Timeline, Race 10
Longshot: Scarf It Down, Race 4

R1

Into Mystic
Sharp entry
Tweedia

#5 INTO MYSTIC: Fetched $650,000 at auction earlier this year and has several sharp works to her credit. She may want a bit longer than this distance, but she could also be precocious enough to win at first asking given her sire, Into Mischief; SHARP ENTRY: I prefer #1 MO WHEELS UP, who’s been working very well of late. Having said that, #1A LADY T N T isn’t without a shot, as she lost all chance early on in her debut; #4 TWEEDIA: Has a very obscure pedigree, but looks the part of a runner in the mornings. We don’t see too many Arkansas-breds at Saratoga, but Brad Cox can win with horses from everywhere, and she may be a bit of a price.

R2

Packed House
Jimmy Jazz
Gambler’s Fallacy

#6 PACKED HOUSE: Didn’t break well last time out and was one-paced going longer. That running style leads me to believe he’ll like two turns, and this seems like a mediocre field for the level; #2 JIMMY JAZZ: Goes two turns for the first time and has been gelded since a fifth-place finish at this level downstate. Jose Lezcano hops aboard, and he has a right to improve at a price; #10 GAMBLER’S FALLACY: May be favored given the powerhouse connections. However, the workouts aren’t anything special, he’ll need to negotiate a trip from the far outside post, and it’s tough to win going two turns right off the bat.

R3

Mighty Zealous
O Shea Can U See
Winston’s Chance

#6 MIGHTY ZEALOUS: Drops down in class after trying stakes foes earlier this meet in a spot that turned up incredibly tough for the level. It helps that he likes a wet track, as there may still be moisture out there following rain earlier in the weekend; #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE: May have figured things out judging by his two straight wire-to-wire wins at Belmont Park. He’ll be prominent early, although he’ll likely have company up front; #1 WINSTON’S CHANCE: Lit up the tote board here last year and returns to the Spa for this event. However, he’s winless in four starts at Finger Lakes, and this seems a bit shorter than his best game.

R4

Scarf It Down
Win With Pride
Top of the Page

#2 SCARF IT DOWN: Hasn’t won in a while, but has been running against tough starter allowance foes and drops in for a tag here. His two starts at this route last season were both sharp, and Luis Saez returning to the saddle can’t be overlooked; #6 WIN WITH PRIDE: Returns to dirt after chasing swifter foes on turf earlier in the meet. He’s won his last two dirt starts against claiming company, and he should be rolling late; #3 TOP OF THE PAGE: Had a rough trip last time out when third against similar going two turns. He cuts back to seven furlongs in his first start for Robertino Diodoro, and he’s won at this distance before.

R5

Disco Partner
Blind Ambition
Holding Gold

#3 DISCO PARTNER: Went further than he wants to go last time out at Belmont and returns to his preferred distance. He won this race two years ago, and he should get a perfect setup given his late-running style and an abundance of early speed in this field; #6 BLIND AMBITION: Also cuts back in distance, and is another that’s had success sprinting on turf at Saratoga. He has tactical speed, but does not need the lead and could get first run on the pace-setters turning for home; #2 HOLDING GOLD: Was a late-running third in the Grade 1 Highlander at Woodbine last time out. He’ll be going the right way in the stretch, but he’s won just one of his last nine starts, so I can’t use him on top.

R6

Dogtag
Tula
Speedy Solution

#7 DOGTAG: Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in this field, and this one’s works impress me more. She’s bred to be a runner, and while debuting going two turns isn’t easy, she’s yet to do anything wrong in her training; #9 TULA: Had an adventurous trip when third in her debut. She was wide early and well back in a race with no early pace, yet still rallied to finish third. She may have gotten a lot out of that race; #3 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Also had a troubled trip in her unveiling, as she was a close-up third in a roughly-run race downstate. John Velazquez hops aboard, and while Wesley Ward isn’t great with stretch-outs, this filly is bred to want as much ground as possible.

R7

What a Catch
Felix in Fabula
American Power

#4 WHAT A CATCH: Drops in for a tag after spending most of his career collecting checks in state-bred stakes races. There’s a chance he’s peaked already, but this is a steep class drop, and I doubt we’ll get the 5-1 morning line given the presence of Pletcher and Velazquez; #7 FELIX IN FABULA: Has yet to run a bad race around one turn and exits a win downstate at this level. He was claimed by Danny Gargan that day, and the recent works indicate he’s ready to run; #8 AMERICAN POWER: Snuck by the $25,000 level last time out, winning by nearly six lengths for aggressive connections. This is a step up in class, but he’s got two wins and a second in three one-turn outings and is a threat if he can repeat his last-out effort.

R8

Bad Student (MTO)
Roman Approval
Decisive Triumph

#5 ROMAN APPROVAL: Drops way down in class after two failed tries against Grade 3 company. He’s got one way of going, and if he gets an easy lead, he could get brave against a lesser group than the ones he’s faced of late; #6 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Exits a listed stakes race at Delaware Park where they flew home in the final quarter-mile. He’s got plenty of experience going this far, but he hasn’t won since late-2016, so it’s tough to endorse him on top with much confidence; #10 MASTER PLAN: Has back form that would trounce these, but his last three races haven’t been pretty, which explains the class drop. Two of those races were on dirt, though, and he could wake up if this stays on the grass. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAD STUDENT, HARDLY A SECRET, HALLOWEEN HORROR.

R9

Clutch Cargo (MTO)
Team Valor entry
Uncle Gio

TEAM VALOR ENTRY: I prefer #1 PILLAR MOUNTAIN, who had every right to need his return race last time out. I think he’ll step forward in his second start off the bench, and this distance could suit him; #3 UNCLE GIO: Adds blinkers after having won two of his last four starts. He was a bit compromised last time by a fairly slow pace, and the blinkers could get him more involved early; #2 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW: Missed by a head at this level last time out downstate. He’s got plenty of experience at this distance, but has settled for minor awards more often than not. DIRT SELECTIONS: CLUTCH CARGO, CONVICT PIKE, HOLIDAY BONUS.

R10

Timeline
Outplay
Patch

#3 TIMELINE: Was second behind Sunny Ridge last time out, but looms large in this spot as the main speed in the race. Additionally, he loves a wet track, which he could get in this spot; #2 OUTPLAY: Won the Curlin Stakes here last year and cuts back in distance after tiring in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He’s got some early speed, but has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #5 PATCH: Will be well-supported at the windows, though for reasons that have nothing to do with his ability. He could come running late, but both of his wins have come in one-turn races, and it’s fair to wonder if that’s the trip he wants.

R11

Naples Legacy (MTO)
Safe With Me
Samara

#10 SAFE WITH ME: Was second behind a next-out winner last time out downstate. The outside post is less than ideal, but she’s won at this route and should be running well late beneath Javier Castellano; #2 SAMARA: Comes back to the appropriate level after a failed try against starter allowance foes. Her races two and three back were solid, and repeats of those races would definitely put her in the mix; #9 JAZZY JUDER: Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, which doubled as her first start in more than 10 months. She could improve second off the bench for sharp connections. DIRT SELECTIONS: NAPLES LEGACY, MISS SIZZLE, PARANOIA.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/4/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $754.50

When I was a kid, there was one summer where former New York Daily News racing writer/handicapper Bill Finley ran so terribly in the “Battle of Saratoga” that he ran out of money before the meet was over. As a kid, I laughed pretty hard at that and wondered how it could happen.

Well, given the slump I’ve been in in this section since the meet started, I get it now. I don’t think we’ll get to the point where we run out of funds, but some cold streaks do make it easy to see how that may happen. If there’s consolation, it’s that I heated up as last year’s meet rolled along, so hopefully things will begin to pick up sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: An attempt to get some value out of Sudden Surprise fizzled early, when multi-race exotics horses were nowhere in the second race. We dropped $27.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a stand against likely third-race favorite #6 CUARENTA, who debuts for a tag that’s 25% of his 2017 purchase price. That hits me as a big red flag. I’ll box #5 ROGUE NATION, #7 ONE MORE TOM, and #9 PRETERNATURAL in $5 exactas.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday’s Results: 2 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 35 for 128

Best Bet: Business Cycle, Race 6
Longshot: Mr. Cub, Race 11

R1

Moss entry (MTO)
Souper Tapit
Hembree

#2 SOUPER TAPIT: Ran well in his return to the races last month at Churchill. When he’s right, he’s a stakes-caliber runner on any surface, and his pedigree hints that he may be getting even better; #4 HEMBREE: Hasn’t run a bad race in a more than a year and exits a win in a swiftly-run allowance downstate. He figures to be prominent early, and he hasn’t finished out of the top two in three local starts; #3 BIRD’S EYE VIEW: Was beaten a half-length by a strong runner last time out and has kept strong company in the past. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want even more ground than he gets in this race. DIRT SELECTIONS: MOSS ENTRY, SOUPER TAPIT, FUNDY’S TIDE.

R2

Noble Nebraskan
Brown entry
Medina Ridge

#4 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Is bred to be a top-class runner. He’s by promising young sire Noble Mission, his second dam is G1 winner Honest Lady, and his third dam is Toussaud, the dam of Belmont winner/top sire Empire Maker; BROWN ENTRY: #1 SPIRIT ANIMAL is bred to like turf and is a threat if he draws in, while #1A STANDARD DEVIATION fetched $450,000 at auction, has trained like he could be a runner, and may be favored if the race is switched to the main track; #6 MEDINA RIDGE: Is out of a dam who won multiple graded stakes races going long on the grass. This barn isn’t necessarily known for having horses ready right away, but has had success with firsters on turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: STANDARD DEVIATION, SOCIAL PARANOIA, BRONXVILLE.

R3

Preternatural
Rogue Nation
One More Tom

#9 PRETERNATURAL: Drops in for a tag and cuts back to a sprint, which seems like the trip he wants. His debut effort going short wasn’t bad, and that race’s winner has since run well twice against allowance foes; #5 ROGUE NATION: Debuts in this spot for a trainer that can win with first-time starters at this level. His workouts appear solid, and running to those drills may be enough to beat what seems like an underwhelming group; #7 ONE MORE TOM: Has plenty of seasoning and runs for a tag for the first time. His lack of early speed is a concern, but Javier Castellano signing on can’t be ignored.

R4

Broman entry
Vitsal
Not So Quiet Man

BROMAN ENTRY: #1 FAST GETAWAY took to the turf last time out, when he closed to break his maiden at Belmont Park. He merits respect on the lawn, while #1A THE CARETAKER seems like the most logical selection if the race is taken off the turf; #2 VITSAL: Is certainly fast enough to win this race, but I’ll take a shot against him. He’s found trouble in each of his last three starts, and that trend is worrisome for a horse that’s drawn the rail; #10 NOT SO QUIET MAN: Has run well twice at Saratoga and comes in off a win at Monmouth Park. This is a class hike for him, but this barn doesn’t ship to NYRA tracks to sight-see. DIRT SELECTIONS: THE CARETAKER, CALL ME A STAR, BELLEVILLE SPRING.

R5

Precieuse
Uni
On Leave

#5 PRECIEUSE: Won a Group 1 in France two back and gets Lasix for her American debut. This isn’t a bad group, but it’s far from what she’s been running against overseas, and it seems like she’s been working well; #1 UNI: Has been working her way back since coming up sick prior to the Grade 1 Gamely, which she had to scratch out of. On her best day, she can certainly win this, but there’s a chance she needs the race; #7 ON LEAVE: Has been running against some of the best female turf horses in the country and was most recently seen running fifth in the Grade 1 Just A Game. Her best race would make her competitive, but she may be a hair past her peak.

R6

Business Cycle
Hersh
Alkhaatam

#5 BUSINESS CYCLE: Was second in his debut late last year and hasn’t run since, but he’s been working incredibly well for Chad Brown. A repeat of that debut effort would make him very tough to beat; #4 HERSH: Rallied to finish second in his debut last month. He had some trouble that day and could step forward at second asking; #1 ALKHAATAM: Was bet to 2-1 odds in the Grade 2 Remsen, but ran fourth behind Catholic Boy and hasn’t been seen since. He’s got some solid works to his credit, but he’s bred to go much further, so this seems like a prep.

R7

Justice of War
Brown entry
Mucho

#2 JUSTICE OF WAR: Fetched $550,000 at auction and goes out for one of the top trainer/jockey combinations to this point in the meet. He’s got a few very strong gate works that hint he has serious talent; BROWN ENTRY: While #1 FULLNESS OF TIME has some things to recommend, I actually prefer #1A AHEAD OF PLAN, who needs some luck to draw in off the AE list. The latter hammered for $475,000 despite a modest pedigree and has a number of eye-catching workouts; #6 MUCHO: Ran well to be second behind Whiskey Echo in his debut, and that rival went on to run an OK third in the Grade 3 Sanford. Bill Mott’s horses tend to get better with experience, and that experience could help him given the abundance of debuting runners here.

R8

Separationofpowers
Classy Act
Mia Mischief

#6 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS: Gets a tepid top pick in a puzzling renewal of the Grade 1 Test. She missed the break in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, yet rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. She should take a big step forward here with a cleaner trip; #4 CLASSY ACT: Ran a colossal race in defeat in the Victory Ride, when she helped set a very fast early pace, turned back her early rivals, and was nipped by a huge longshot. She’ll likely be prominent again in this race; #7 MIA MISCHIEF: Faded to finish fifth as the favorite in the Victory Ride, but her lesser races have come off of layoffs. She could be more fit here, and if she is, she’s absolutely good enough to win.

R9

Backyard Heaven
Mind Your Biscuits
Diversify

#2 BACKYARD HEAVEN: Bounced badly when sixth in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, and I’m choosing to draw a line through that race. If he runs back to the Grade 2 Alysheba, he may be the horse to beat, and we could get a bit of a price based on the last-out clunker; #4 MIND YOUR BISCUITS: Tries nine furlongs for the first time after just missing in the Grade 1 Met Mile. His pedigree says he doesn’t want to go this far, but you can’t blame the connections for trying given the purse and the likely race shape that could favor his closing kick; #6 DIVERSIFY: Turned in a huge performance in the Grade 2 Suburban, where he smashed several of today’s foes and earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. That was easily his best performance to date, though, and given the other speed in the field and lack of any value here, I’ll try to beat him.

R10

Santa Monica
Mom’s On Strike
Lottie

#5 SANTA MONICA: Has won two of three starts since coming to America and most recently took the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She beat a pretty good group that day, and a similar performance here would likely make her a formidable foe; #2 MOM’S ON STRIKE: Has won five of her last seven starts and was beaten just two lengths in the Grade 2 New York, a race whose second and third-place finishers have already come back to win. Joe Sharp has gotten off to a great start at the meet, and she’s shown she can get this distance; #8 LOTTIE: May be a cut below these, but is one of only a few that’s ever shown early speed. She was up close throughout last time out, and a similar trip here seems likely.

R11

Ticonderoga
Mr. Cub
Zennor

#2 TICONDEROGA: Gets my top selection in a very deep renewal of the Lure Stakes. He’s kept tremendous company throughout his career, and I think he’s significantly better around two turns; #3 MR. CUB: Was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 2 Wise Dan, and with #8 VOODOO SONG likely scratching in favor of next weekend’s Grade 1 Fourstardave, this one figures to be the main early speed. He could get an easy trip, and such a journey would make him an overlay at his morning line price; #7 ZENNOR: Won three in a row, including this race last year, before being sidelined. If he’s back to that form, he’s a contender, but between the long layoff and the jockey switch, I’m treading fairly lightly.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/3/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $781.50

Friday’s main event isn’t at the track, but at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame induction ceremony. It’s there that Heavenly Prize will lead this year’s class of honorees, two decades after a career that saw her hold her own against one of the best groups of distaffers in recent racing history.

Initially, I didn’t plan to vote for her, but the more I researched, the more she won me over. She never ran a bad race when going up against the likes of Inside Information, Serena’s Song, and Paseana, and all of those horses are Hall of Famers. She deserves a plaque, and it’s cool that she’s getting one.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Diva’s Revenge got shuffled back, and when she didn’t make the lead, she lost all chance. We dropped $23.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card and try to extract some value from #3 SUDDEN SURPRISE (my best bet of the day) in the third race. I’ll play $6 doubles starting in the second race that use #1 LIP SYNC, #2 SATURDAYS VAPOR, and #9 JORDY’S READY in the opening leg. Additionally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the second that uses #1 MIDNIGHT BOUNTY, #5 MAJESTIC KINDNESS, and #7 ZEVEN in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday’s Results: 3 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 33 for 108

Best Bet: Sudden Surprise, Race 3
Longshot: Lip Sync, Race 2

R1

Vampish
Ballybrack Lass
Cassies Dreamer

#4 VAMPISH: Gets a tepid nod in a complete mystery of a race that features each entrant making a career debut. This one will likely be favored given the flashy pedigree, solid workouts, and the combination of Rudy Rodriguez and Javier Castellano; #2 BALLYBRACK LASS: Has been working out at the training track since May with few interruptions, so she should at least be fit ahead of her debut. She’s by Super Saver and out of an Elusive Quality mare, so she’s got a right to be OK; #5 CASSIES DREAMER: Goes out for an owner/trainer combination that popped with a price last weekend. Ricardo Santana’s been riding as well as anyone of late, though it’s fair to wonder if she wants to run much longer than today’s route.

R2

Lip Sync
Saturdays Vapor
Jordy’s Ready

#1 LIP SYNC: Makes her career debut in a race that doesn’t appear to be very strong for the level. It’s a bit of a red flag that she debuts running for a $20,000 tag after hammering for $100,000 last March, but these are aggressive connections that have had an unlucky start, so it’s at least plausible; #2 SATURDAYS VAPOR: Seems like the main speed in this race and drops down to the lowest level maiden claiming race this circuit provides. Many of these runners haven’t shown early zip, so she could carve out an easy trip; #9 JORDY’S READY: Has been second in two straight starts since switching to the dirt, and both of those races were won by horses that repeated in their next starts. She’d benefit from another runner going with my second selection out of the gate.

R3

Sudden Surprise
Ostrolenka
H Man

#3 SUDDEN SURPRISE: Has never lost at Saratoga and makes his first start for Gary Gullo, who’s very strong with new acquisitions. He’d benefit from a wet track, and he’s been running against significantly better horses of late; #7 OSTROLENKA: Has back races that would make him a major player. However, it’s fair to wonder if his best days are behind him, and he’s winless both at Saratoga (0 for 7) and over wet tracks (0 for 9); #2 H MAN: Is a hard-trying, consistent gelding that generally runs the same race every time out. He’s fallen into a habit of picking up minor awards, and that seems like his ceiling in this spot.

R4

Majestic Kindness
Midnight Bounty
Zeven

#5 MAJESTIC KINDNESS: Has won two in a row, including a last-out win over several rivals that show up in this spot. Nick Zito’s barn has woken up a bit as of late, and she’s shown an ability to pass horses late (not a common trait in this field); #1 MIDNIGHT BOUNTY: Was an OK second to my top selection last time out in her first start for Falcone, who’s had a very strong year with a smaller barn. She could step forward here, but she’s winless in her last six starts and may not love two turns; #7 ZEVEN: Has woken up since coming back to dirt two starts ago. She was an OK second last time out at Monmouth, and it helps her cause that the third-place finisher from that race has since come back to win.

R5

More Mischief
Give Me a Hug
She Will Rock

#5 MORE MISCHIEF: Hammered for $350,000 at auction earlier this year and has been working very well here ahead of her unveiling. If she runs to her drills for one of the top barns in the country, she could be tough to deny; #6 GIVE ME A HUG: Didn’t do much running at 3/2 in her debut, but her last three works seem to indicate that she’s figuring things out. The blinkers come off, but John Velazquez stays on; #7 SHE WILL ROCK: Has had some gate issues in both of her prior outings, but she was a solid second last time out at Churchill, and anything Asmussen and Santana team up with can’t be ignored given their recent hot streaks.

R6

Stonefactor
Hannah’s Smile
Miss Mystique

#8 STONEFACTOR: Has lots of early speed and led every step of the way last time out at Belmont. This is her first try against winners, and it isn’t a bad field, but it certainly seems like the early lead is hers for the taking; #6 HANNAH’S SMILE: Was a good second against similar-level opposition last time out downstate. She figures to be running well late, and she’d benefit from a faster-than-expected clip going into the turn; #5 MISS MYSTIQUE: Cuts back in distance after a pair of seven-furlong races at Belmont. She lost a photo for fourth to my second selection two back, yet will almost certainly be a much bigger price.

R7

We Are Family
Bazooka Girl
Anne Dupree

#6 WE ARE FAMILY: Is the recipient of possibly my most tepid top pick of the meet to date. She’s run reasonably well in two dirt routes, and with the other two likely short prices making their dirt debuts, this seems like the safest option; #3 BAZOOKA GIRL: Did next to no running in her debut, but she adds Lasix and blinkers at second asking for a barn whose horses usually improve with experience. She’s bred to love this two-turn route of ground; #1 ANNE DUPREE: Was reeled in late after leading most of the way over soft turf at Pimlico last time out. How she’ll take to the dirt is anyone’s guess, but the most recent workout looks flashy on paper and Jonathan Thomas is one of the most promising young trainers on the grounds.

R8

Holland Park
Weather Wiz
Uncle Sigh

#4 HOLLAND PARK: Nearly overcame a troubled trip when second in the Federico Tesio at Laurel last time out. He was beaten less than a length that day despite being much further back than he probably wanted to be, and there are signs this 3-year-old is getting better with experience; #10 WEATHER WIZ: Put it all together last time out when wiring a field of maidens downstate. He looks like the main source of early speed in here, and if he can clear most of this group going into the first turn, there’s a chance he could get brave once again; #6 UNCLE SIGH: Is one of the easiest horses to root for on the circuit, as he chased California Chrome in the 2014 Kentucky Derby and is still running solid races as a 7-year-old. He was most recently third behind Diversify at Belmont Park, and his usual effort would likely get him a piece of the purse here.

R9

Raging Bull
Gidu
Combatant

#4 RAGING BULL: Fell victim to a very slow early pace last time out, but should get a more lively opening half here assuming the Friday feature stays on turf. He figures to be flying late, and two turns shouldn’t be an issue; #6 GIDU: Was beaten less than three lengths in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot. He may be at his best going a bit shorter, but he could be in career-best form right now, and that’s tough to ignore; #7 COMBATANT: Comes back to turf and is bred to like it. He’s mainly in my top three, though, in the event this race is switched to the main track (which could happen given the forecast).

R10

Regalian
Laura’s Posse
Mr. Fixit

#9 REGALIAN: Was claimed back by Chris Englehart last time out and shortens up a bit here. He does take an aggressive drop, but given the owner involved here, it doesn’t seem as panicky as it could; #7 LAURA’S POSSE: May not have beaten much last time out, but he did so in visually impressive fashion. Joel Rosario stays aboard, and Gary Gullo does solid work with last-out winners; #4 MR. FIXIT: Has shown early speed and makes his first start for Linda Rice, which could move him up. The class drop makes sense, and he’s won over a wet track in the past.