handicapping | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/2/18

Posted on August 1, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $804.50

A few of my best friends in the game (regardless of whether or not they want to publicly identify as such!) are rolling into town today. Joe and Natalie Nevills, as well as fellow Saratogian alumnus/DRF employee Nicole Russo, have arrived in upstate New York, and it is only fitting that I provide valuable conversational insight should you run into them.

Joe likes Big Red Spring water and will welcome long baths in the backyard’s pavilion. Natalie is a proud Lucha Underground enthusiast, especially when one tries to explain the intricacies involved in the program. Nicole, meanwhile, has been dragged to Saratoga kicking and screaming. Don’t be fooled by the ear-to-ear smile and her defying gravity by floating around the property without touching the ground!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Nothing like running 2-3 behind a 23-1 shot that forgets to stop. We dropped $24.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth, and I hope we get the 4-1 morning line price on my top selection. That’s #6 DIVA’S REVENGE, who’s bred up and down for turf and has worked strongly for Linda Rice ahead of her second career start. I’ll put $15 on her to win, and I’ll play $2 exactas keying her above and below #4 CURRENCY CHAOS and #5 BEYONDELLE, both of whom could shake up the exotics at a price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $23

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Monday’s Results: 1 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 30 for 108

Best Bet: Hard Study, Race 4
Longshot: Dynatail, Race 9

Bustin Hearts
Satin Sheets
My Won Love

#4 BUSTIN HEARTS: Has not run a bad race since going to Jeremiah Englehart’s barn last spring. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, and the presence of top rider Luis Saez means she could be well-meant; #2 SATIN SHEETS: Has won two in a row and makes her first start for trainer Gary Gullo. It’s tough to improve horses off of Steve Asmussen, but Gullo is very solid off the claim, and this one merits respect; #6 MY WON LOVE: Was second at this level going longer downstate in her first start since April. She’s obviously a contender if she channels the form she showed at Aqueduct this past winter, but that’s a much different surface than the one she’ll get here.

Baker entry
San Juan Diego
Royal Heist

BAKER ENTRY: I prefer #1 READY TO ESCAPE, who’s been gelded since his last start and gets Joel Rosario. Having said that, #1A LIGHT THE POSSE ran a solid second in his debut and could improve with the addition of Lasix; #3 SAN JUAN DIEGO: Ran the best race of his career two back and might have bounced last time out. A return to form could make him a contender; #4 ROYAL HEIST: Seems like the main speed in here and could get brave on the front end. His last-out effort was uninspiring, but he could make an easy lead in this spot.

Brown entry
Hizeem
Hierarchy

#1A FRONTIER MARKET: Could be approaching “now or never” status after three straight seconds at short offs. Having said that, this doesn’t seem like a banner field for the level, and he may appreciate the two-turn route of ground; #3 HIZEEM: Was second in his debut downstate and stretches out at second asking. He fits in here, and he’d benefit from an early speed duel; #4 HIERARCHY: Ran on well to be fourth in his debut for a trainer whose horses often need a race or two to get going. That day’s winner has since come back to win again. DIRT SELECTIONS: BUSINESS CYCLE, DARK N CLOUDY, CHANTRY FLATS.

Hard Study
You’re to Blame
Carlino

#1 HARD STUDY: Is one of the top dirt stayers in the country and will likely be an odds-on favorite to repeat in the Birdstone. He won this race fairly easily last year and exits a solid third-place finish in the Grade 2 Brooklyn; #3 YOU’RE TO BLAME: Has plenty of experience against stakes company and tries a marathon distance for the first time. He runs like a plodder, which could work to his benefit; #2 CARLINO: Has chased my top two selections earlier this season and was fifth in the Brooklyn. He does his best running late and could clunk up for a piece of it.

Loose
Daring Prospect
Non Finisce Mai

#8 LOOSE: Has won five of her last seven starts and has not finished out of the top two in nearly a year. It’s fair to wonder if she’ll regress following the claim away from Rudy Rodriguez, but Brad Cox is on a roll right now and could have this one ready to run; #7 DARING PROSPECT: Is another that was claimed away from Rodriguez last time out. She’ll likely show plenty of early speed in her first start for Tom Morley; #2 NON FINISCE MAI: Ran the best race of her career here last summer, when she dusted similar opposition at this route. Gullo knows how to bring horses back off of long layoffs, and we may get a price.

Diva’s Revenge
Currency Chaos
Cottonwood Falls

#6 DIVA’S REVENGE: Is bred to love the grass and has worked well locally of late for turf sprint extraordinaire Linda Rice. She showed speed in her debut against better horses, and that day’s clear winner repeated at next asking; #4 CURRENCY CHAOS: May have run the best race of her career last time out when second at this level going six furlongs. She’s got some zip and could appreciate the slight cutback in distance; #9 COTTONWOOD FALLS: Merits respect because of her connections, but there are red flags here. She’s been working exclusively on dirt at Monmouth, and she debuts for a $40,000 tag after being purchased for $190,000 last March. DIRT SELECTIONS: DIVA’S REVENGE, JORDY’S READY, SOUPER ECHO.

Sentry
Honey Dont
Shortlist

#5 SENTRY: Gets a tepid top pick in a race that could go many different directions. Unlike many other contenders in here, though, this one has some tactical speed and owns a win going a two-turn route of ground; #4 HONEY DONT: Broke through last time out in his first start for a tag, and perhaps the class relief woke him up. He earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure that day, and it also helps that he ran well here last summer; #6 SHORTLIST: Merits a look given that he never seemed comfortable last time out. I think that race is easy to throw out, and before that, he chased talented stayer Focus Group going much longer than he wants to run. Between the back class and the likely price, he needs to be on my tickets.

Dream Pauline
Mizzen Max
Critique

#2 DREAM PAULINE: Was bred to be a good one and debuted with a bang at Aqueduct, where the daughter of Tapit and Dream Rush spurted well clear late. She hasn’t run since, but the workouts hint that she’s stepped forward considerably; #4 MIZZEN MAX: Has never finished outside the top two in six lifetime starts. She has a lot of early zip, and a wet track certainly wouldn’t hurt her chances given her perfect record over such surfaces; #7 CRITIQUE: Hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since last fall’s Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont, where she faltered as one of the betting favorites. Before that, though, she ran well at Saratoga twice, including in a runaway maiden win late in the meet.

Onthemoonagain
Dynatail
Danceland

#5 ONTHEMOONAGAIN: Emerged as one of the better 3-year-old fillies in France last year, when she placed in a pair of graded events. She adds Lasix in her American debut for Chad Brown and looms very large; #6 DYNATAIL: Has not won in a while, but certainly seems like the lone horse in this field with any early speed. She won last year’s Penn Oaks in a similar sort of race, and that was with today’s rider aboard; #1 DANCELAND: Will likely come flying late, as she did when winning a swiftly-run race here last year. There’s plenty of talent here, but the race shape doesn’t favor closers, and that’s cause for concern.

R10

Dubb entry
Mambo Dancer
Supercommittee

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1A SPECIAL TRIP, who exits a race against much better competition and has been competitive going two turns in the past. #1 MUCHACHA UNO, however, does figure to run on late in her first start for this trainer; #9 MAMBO DANCER: Was fourth as the 8/5 favorite in her debut at Gulfstream Park. It’s not easy to debut going two turns, as she tried to do, so there are plenty of reasons to give her another shot; #6 SUPERCOMMITTEE: Set the pace in an off-the-turf event in June at Belmont Park. Jose Ortiz signs on, and while I’m not sure she wants this two-turn route, early speed can be powerful on the inner turf.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/1/18

Posted on July 31, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.50

It’s back to the west coast for me after a week in upstate New York. It was great to come home and see some family, and it was also really cool to get a day at the track Monday. To the friends, family, and former press box colleagues that made it such a great day: Thank you. To those I missed: There’s always next year!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: I was right in my rationale of Modem being a bad morning line favorite in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. Unfortunately, I couldn’t have had longshot winner Show Court without hitting the “ALL” button. After scratches, I dropped $16.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #10 OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE, who figures to be very tough to beat if she can repeat either of her first two starts. I’ll play $6 exactas keying her on top of #1 FACE IT/#1A CARNIVAL LASS, #5 ANAZARA, #8 IRISH PRINCESS, and #9 SMILE MORE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Monday’s Results: 5 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 29 for 98

Best Bet: Our Circle of Love, Race 5
Longshot: Soluble, Race 4

Sixty Five
Whitman’s Poetry
Dark Gemini

#1 SIXTY FIVE: Has yet to run a bad race over fences, and his last race on the flat was too bad to be true. It helps his cause that there should be plenty of speed for him to rate behind; #6 WHITMAN’S POETRY: Seems like the main speed in here, and he may benefit from this race being a hair shorter than most of his prior steeplechase efforts; #5 DARK GEMINI: Has yet to finish worse than third in his steeplechase career, and like my top pick, he would benefit from several horses dictating a fast early pace.

Heaven’s Creation
Giant Ending
Eight Minute Ellie

#7 HEAVEN’S CREATION: Makes her first start for Bruce Brown and drops down in class after two efforts for higher claiming tags. Her form looks much better if you toss the turf races; #3 GIANT ENDING: Was an OK third last time out at this level and has a win going two turns. She could improve second off the trainer switch, and it helps that she can either sit close to the pace or rate a bit; #5 EIGHT MINUTE ELLIE: May have needed her last-out effort at Ellis Park and is another dropping in class. Her best effort could win this, but her top races have come at Gulfstream, and that form doesn’t always translate to Saratoga.

Brockmoninoff
Ghost Giant
Ferrad’s Party

#10 BROCKMONINOFF: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open maiden claiming event. He hasn’t run in more than 10 months, but his two races last year were very good, and George Weaver does very well with horses off of long layoffs; #2 GHOST GIANT: Was second at this level downstate in his first turf start. That was by far the best effort of his career, so regression is possible, but a repeat performance would put him right there; #9 FERRAD’S PARTY: Just missed last time out in a return to this level. His record looks much better if you draw lines through the dirt races, and Rosario remains aboard.

Transistor (MTO)
Soluble
Glennrichment

#9 SOLUBLE: Drops down in class after spending much of his career running against very good turf horses. He was beaten just four lengths in last year’s Grade 3 Red Smith by an eventual Grade 1 winner, and this seems like the correct level; #7 GLENNRICHMENT: Missed by a neck over yielding going when last seen, and there’s a chance he’s been a turf horse all along. He’s got some tactical speed and could get first run turning for home; #4 TRICKED UP: May have needed his last race, which doubled as his first outing since December. He’s won here before and has back races that would make him competitive. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSISTOR, TERRIBLE DAY, PRETENTIOUS.

Our Circle of Love
Smile More
Anazara

#10 OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE: Has run two very strong races and is absolutely the one to beat. She could also benefit from a wet track if the skies open up, given her pedigree (by Distorted Humor, out of an Unbridled’s Song mare); #9 SMILE MORE: Fetched $275,000 at auction and debuts for an outfit that means business when it comes to New York. The July 21st workout looks very impressive; #5 ANAZARA: Comes back to dirt after not taking to turf last time out. She ran well in her debut for Bill Mott (whose horses often need a race to get going), and this barn’s done very good work to this point in the meet.

She Will Rock (MTO)
Corey Scores
Sassy Agnes

#3 COREY SCORES: Is bred up and down for turf and has been working like a good horse ahead of her career debut. It’s tough to argue with this trainer/jockey combination, and she looms large; #8 SASSY AGNES: Has several flashy works to her credit ahead of her debut. Central Banker has gotten off to a strong start at stud, and Linda Rice does very well in turf sprints; #6 ITSAKEYPER: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but she’s bred to like turf and should improve with experience at a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHE WILL ROCK, MIMIC, SASSY AGNES.

Dooley (MTO)
Follow the Signs
New Jersey John

#12 FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Took a step forward second off the layoff last time out and won impressively here last September. He’ll need to negotiate a trip from the far outside post, but he has the speed to potentially clear going into the first turn; #2 NEW JERSEY JOHN: Has won two of four starts since being claimed in January at Tampa. He may have benefited from the trip last time out at Belmont, but Lezcano is 2 for 2 on him, and he’ll be a price while in career-best form; #3 CROSSWAYS: Returns after a smashing maiden win in his turf debut in April. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and the gap in workouts from May to July is a concern, but if he’s ready, he’ll be a major player. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOOLEY, HIGH MOON, CARTHON.

Come Dancing
Your Love
Wonderment

#4 COME DANCING: Returned with a big effort last week, when she smashed optional claiming foes in her first start since January. Carlos Martin’s done well with a smaller barn this meet, and I think he’s got this filly going in the right direction; #8 YOUR LOVE: Was second in her first start since November downstate. Her best race could absolutely win this, but I’m concerned with the possibility of a wet track, as I think she’s considerably better over fast going; #2 WONDERMENT: Is a two-time stakes winner making her first start since January. She may need the race, but she’d benefit from a wet track and could run well late at a big price.

Stoney Bennett (MTO)
Frisky Magician
Banana Thief

#4 FRISKY MAGICIAN: Drops down in class after a pair of efforts against graded stakes foes. He hasn’t won in a while, but a repeat of his race two back in the Grade 3 Turf Sprint at Churchill would make him very tough; #11 BANANA THIEF: Is a pace play for me given the abundance of early speed in this field. He likes running second or third, but he’s won here before, could run well late, and has arguably the hottest trainer/jockey combination to this point in the meet; #6 UNCLE YOUDGE: Has won two in a row at Laurel Park and may be in career-best form. It’s worth noting that Lynch is slated to travel up from Maryland to ride. DIRT SELECTIONS: STONEY BENNETT, ETHAN HUNT, OSTROLENKA.

R10

Smash Williams
Bronze Age
Money Laundering

#7 SMASH WILLIAMS: Drops down in class, but is trained by Todd Pletcher and would benefit from a wet track. In this mess of a race where I’d advise you to use as many as you can afford, that’s enough to make him my top selection; #6 BRONZE AGE: Was DQ’d out of a win last time out at Prairie Meadows. He has back form that hints he’ll be tough if he fires his best shot, but he’s shown that he hates wet tracks, so follow the track condition; #13 MONEY LAUNDERING: May have needed the race last time out, since it was his first start in 10 months. He’s been gelded since that effort, and at least he’s won here before.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Justify, Social Media, Bad Behavior, and a Challenge

Posted on July 30, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

In an age where it seems like the only people who get attention on social media are the ones with the loudest, knee-jerk reactions to hot-button issues and breaking news, I prefer to take a contrarian approach. This is why I’ve waited a week to offer my thoughts on the retirement and legacy of Justify, who, to the surprise of very few, has seen his racing days come to an end.

I’ll keep my thoughts on Justify pretty brief, as there’s a much bigger issue I feel the need to tackle (more on that later). The words “undefeated Triple Crown winner” have only ever been uttered once before this year, and it was when Seattle Slew finished off a nine-race win streak in the Belmont. Slew, of course, came back to run as a 4-year-old, when he treated the racing world to several battles with the likes of Affirmed and Exceller, and in fact lost his very first start after the Belmont (in the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park).

Justify won’t get the chance to race into his physical prime. Instead, we must settle for horse racing’s version of a firework, materializing into something brilliant with rarely-matched flair and disappearing just as quickly as it arrived. Would racing have benefited from Justify running a few more times? Of course, but this is a horse that had nothing left to prove. “Undefeated Triple Crown winner” is as powerful a resume as an equine specimen can possess, and in a year where, to be blunt, the handicap division leaves much to be desired, there is no dirt horse Justify could’ve conceivably run against and beaten that would have enhanced his legacy.

As a voter for both Eclipse Awards and racing’s Hall of Fame, I can unequivocally say these three things.

1) Justify is Champion 3-Year-Old Male.
2) Justify is the Horse of the Year.
3) Justify is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

With all due respect to the likes of Accelerate, Monomoy Girl, and others, “undefeated Triple Crown winner” is not a resume any other thoroughbred can top. Some may have a problem with him never facing older horses. I don’t.

This is where, unfortunately, my column takes a pretty sharp turn. If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know that there have been a few instances where I’ve denounced the culture horse racing “fans” have created on social media. I put the word fans in quotation marks there because, in my opinion, if you’re not actively working to make the game better or more enjoyable for those who may see your content, you’re doing nothing productive, and you’re not a true fan.

At its peak, social media is a godsend. It’s a way to communicate with friends and loved ones, as well as a way to stay updated with regard to breaking news. I’ve made my career as a digital media professional for several different outlets, and I can attest to a number of times where the things social media allowed my employer(s) and I to do made for some pretty cool stuff. That’s one of the reasons I’m proud and privileged to do what I do for a living. At its nadir, though, Twitter is a cesspool where people with vile opinions and no regard for doing the right thing are given megaphones and an outlet for their rage.

Before I go further, two caveats: First of all, things that are openly satirical are usually okay. If it’s clear it’s parody, and if the stuff that’s being produced is all in good fun, it makes things more entertaining for everyone involved. If the subject can take a joke (and most people in racing are shockingly good-humored, or just don’t care about this stuff), that’s even better.

Secondly, I make an exception for people who make attempts to be critical in a constructive fashion. I have discussions about ticket structure all the time with a few handicappers I genuinely like and respect, and the exchange of differing viewpoints is all part of civilized debate, which is vital for any high-functioning society (and something that is becoming more and more rare of late!). I may disagree with someone’s thoughts on wagering theory. Someone may not think my ticket structure is sound. Both are perfectly okay, because there’s always an underlying element of respect in what’s being said.

No, my issues are with people who fit one or more of the following criteria.

– Think they know everything.
– Use the platform to say things to/about people that they would NEVER have the guts to say in person.
– Maintain a constant state of disrespect for those who interact with their content.

Needless to say, when Justify retired, many “fans” quickly checked one or more of these three boxes. A lot of people quickly determined that they knew more than Justify’s owners, trainers, or prospective breeders, while some others had incredibly strong views on his legacy and openly fought those who disagreed. There was at least one person who used this “opportunity” to bring up the incidents that occurred in Bob Baffert’s barn during the last days of Hollywood Park, when a number of his horses passed away under murky circumstances (Baffert was cleared of wrongdoing following a lengthy investigation, and you can read the report here).

I’ll ask one simple question, and I’ll happily take answers from anyone who wants to chime in: How does any of the behavior I’ve just described make the game better? People in racing that genuinely care about the sport are working hard to grow the game, especially given the likelihood of legalized sports betting within the next few years. This behavior, most of which is more suited for an elementary school playground, does nothing to entice people who would otherwise be new to the game to take an interest in it. Why do that when some of the most visible people on a social media platform come across as, for lack of a better term, completely miserable?

As a user of Twitter (chances are you accessed this column from there), you have the right to use the platform however you see fit, provided such behavior is covered by Twitter’s terms of service. With that in mind, shouting loudest, and in some cases most profanely or most condescendingly, does not make you a better or more authoritative source on the subject matter in question. Speaking as both a fan and someone who works in the sport on a daily basis, I have no patience for such nonsense, and it’s a big reason why I’ve taken a step back from my personal activity on the site.

If that makes me a snob, so be it. I’ve been called worse. The fact is that I expect better from people that read my content. Perhaps it makes me naïve, but I generally believe the people I interact with are good-hearted, intelligent folks looking to enjoy the sport that I’m lucky enough to work in. There’s nothing enjoyable about seeing stuff on social media platforms that’s downright rude.

We have a duty as racing fans to spread the good parts of this game to those who may not be as well-versed on the subject as we are. If we’re not actively doing that, we’re missing countless opportunities to make the game better at a time where, to be completely honest, the sport can’t afford it. If you think saying things you’d never say to someone in-person is more important than that, then I don’t have much time for you.

I’ll close with something that sums up my thoughts perfectly. If you’re a fan of the classic TV drama, “The West Wing,” you’ll love this. The lead-up to this scene is that Chief of Staff Leo McGarry is rallying the president’s senior advisors and challenging them to be better. It reflects the challenge that I’m issuing to you right now. If you think any of what I’ve said applies to your social media stances of late, stop it and realize that there are bigger issues in play here than egos and the need to be right all the time.

We can be better.

We must be better.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/30/18

Posted on July 28, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $844.50

Three notes today. First (and most importantly), the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund is holding its annual Jockey Karaoke Night this evening at Vapor. It’s always a fun time and a great way to support a lot of former riders that are in need of assistance. Just bring earplugs, especially if Mike Luzzi and David Cohen attempt to re-enact their “performance” from five years ago (I still have nightmares).

Next, this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files” will go online Monday night and examine the retirement of Justify, the social media reaction to it, and how it reflects a much bigger problem within the sport. Finally, I’ll be in the Saratoga backyard today for my once-a-year visit. If you see a tall guy in sunglasses near the paddock that resembles my headshot and doesn’t shut up, it’s probably me. Come say hi!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Scratches reduced the cost of my Pick Four ticket to $18, and that’s a good thing, as Wow Cat ran out of racetrack in the Shuvee. In total, we dropped $23.

MONDAY’S PLAY: How will I celebrate my one day at the Spa this summer? By using part of my bankroll on a steeplechase race! In all seriousness, I think #5 MODEM is a beatable favorite given his apparent addiction to running second, as well as the weight he’s giving to his rivals. I’ll play $4 doubles using #1 IRANISTAN and #2 PERSONAL START, as well as #1 NOMINAL DOLLARS and #4 SAL THE TURTLE in the second. Also, I need some action on #4 SURVEY in the sixth, just in case he makes an easy lead and forgets to stop. I’ll play $1 doubles singling him that start in the fifth with #1 RHYTHMIA, #2 GUMP, #5 BACKTOHISROOTS, #7 JOHNNY TICKETS, and #10 CATCH ME IF U CAN.

TOTAL WAGERED: $21

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lady Camille, Race 10
Longshot: Survey, Race 6

Iranistan
Personal Start
Modem

#1 IRANISTAN: Has reeled off four wins in a row (three over fences, one on the flat) and looms large for powerhouse steeplechase trainer Jonathan Sheppard. He wired a stakes field going longer, and it helps that Nagle (who could’ve ridden another contender in here) is aboard this one; #2 PERSONAL START: Is another on a hot streak, as he comes in having won three straight. Most recently, he aired by eight in a Grade 2 event, and he seems to be in career-best form; #5 MODEM: Will likely be favored, but he’s burned plenty of money since coming over from Europe. He’s run second five times, and while he can’t be left off of vertical exotics tickets, I can’t be too excited about him on top, especially given the short price and that he’s giving up to 20 pounds to the rest of the field.

Sal the Turtle
Nominal Dollars
Crafty Concorde

#4 SAL THE TURTLE: Had a rough trip against much better last time out and gets a rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., who’s been riding very well to this point in the meet. He’s got plenty of back form and should be prominent early; #1 NOMINAL DOLLARS: Has three straight seconds against similar company and may go off favored. However, he’s burned plenty of money lately, and he may need more moisture in the track than he’s likely to get; #7 CRAFTY CONCORDE: Hasn’t run since October, but has worked well at Finger Lakes ahead of his seasonal debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and if he’s ready, he could be a player.

Battle Station
New York Song
McErin

#8 BATTLE STATION: Has yet to run a bad race sprinting and graduated at this route last summer. For a turf sprint, there isn’t much speed signed on, and he may be the one they have to catch; #7 NEW YORK SONG: Came back running last time out, when he missed by a neck downstate. His lone start over this turf course was a win, and he’d benefit from someone challenging my top pick early; #3 MCERIN: Was thought of highly enough by his prior connections that they sent him to Royal Ascot. His first start for this barn was a decent effort at Monmouth, and he could improve off of that.

Zap Zap Zap
Benefactor
Lightning Buzz

#7 ZAP ZAP ZAP: Was claimed by the always-dangerous Brad Cox barn last time out, and that effort was too bad to be true. His two races here last year were OK and came against solid fields for that level; #2 BENEFACTOR: Drops way down in class and shortens up a bit off of an OK third against $25,000 claimers earlier in the meet. This is a much softer spot, and these connections had a lot of success this past weekend; #1 LIGHTNING BUZZ: Was claimed out of his last race by Jeremiah Englehart. He generally runs the same race every time out and merits respect on the trainer switch, but he certainly seems to enjoy settling for minor awards.

Backtohisroots
Catch Me If U Can
Gump

#5 BACKTOHISROOTS: Ran well to be second in his debut at Churchill Downs, even though he raced greenly that day. His most recent work earned a bullet, and Joe Sharp has done very well with similar stock so far this meet; #10 CATCH ME IF U CAN: Fetched $55,000 at auction despite a very modest pedigree and has a few flashy works for a trainer that can win with first-time starters. Jose Ortiz has been enticed to ride, and that’s also a plus; #2 GUMP: Debuted with a solid performance before losing all chance at the break last time out. He drops in class and adds blinkers, and a repeat of his debut would give him a big shot.

Course Correction
Midnight Tea Time
Survey

#9 COURSE CORRECTION: Exits a fast race for the level at Belmont Park and looms large for top-flight connections. It’s tough to tell how any of these runners will take to this route, but this one seems formidable; #5 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME: Was impeded late in his last start, which was his first try going close to today’s distance. I’m not crazy about the field he ran against that day, but he did have a legitimate excuse; #4 SURVEY: Will be a big price, but he’s bred up and down to run as long as possible. Additionally, he’s shown some early speed, which this field is light on, and that’s always a recipe for success on the inner turf course.

Brattata
Originator
Mominou

#2 BRATTATA: Has never run a bad race on turf and most recently finished third behind Got Stormy, who won a Grade 3 at next asking. She ran well when second at this route last summer and gets a tepid nod in what strikes me as a wide-open turf sprint; #7 ORIGINATOR: Was second behind Road to Victory in a similar stakes race at Woodbine. Woodbine turf form sometimes doesn’t translate, but that one is a legitimate filly, and she’s never misfired going short on the grass; #4 MOMINOU: Has two wins and two seconds in four starts since switching to turf. She’s got plenty of speed and could be formidable, even though she’s trying stakes company for the first time.

Special Relativity
Curiousncuriouser
Haynesfest

#8 SPECIAL RELATIVITY: Was third against similar at Belmont in his first start for these connections. Her record looks much better if you toss her turf races, and a repeat of the two-back win at Churchill would make her a major player; #5 CURIOUSNCURIOUSER: Romped against much weaker at Belmont in her first start for Chris Englehart. She’s 2 for 2 at this distance, and it’s possible that the trainer switch woke her up; #1 HAYNESFEST: Just missed going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. The Tom Amoss barn merits lots of respect, and she’ll take money, but it’s worth noting she may be at her best going longer than today’s route.

Focus Group
Classic Covey
Soglio

#4 FOCUS GROUP: Is 2 for 2 at this distance and longer and gets my top pick in a confusing turf marathon. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on, but he may be talented enough to overcome it, and at least you know he has the stamina for this trip; #7 CLASSIC COVEY: Was third in the Grade 2 Pan American two back before misfiring as an odds-on favorite last time out. However, that race aged well when Funtastic came out of it to take the Grade 1 United Nations, and he could easily bounce back in this spot; #1 SOGLIO: Was third in a Grade 3 last time out, and two starts ago romped at Churchill, but this barn had an ice-cold start to the meet and the rail draw isn’t ideal.

R10

Lady Camille
Merlins Muse
Frederica

#3 LADY CAMILLE: Adds Lasix second off the layoff after missing by a half-length downstate in her first start since September. She nearly overcame a very wide post that day, and a repeat effort would make her tough to beat; #7 MERLINS MUSE: Seems like a difficult horse to ride, as she’s found trouble in all three career starts. Still, she only finished a length behind my top selection two back, and she may still be improving; #6 FREDERICA: Took a big step forward when third at this level earlier this month. That wasn’t a particularly strong field, but this doesn’t seem like the most inspiring group, either.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/29/18

Posted on July 28, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $867.50

If you read Saturday’s Pink Sheet, you saw a cool article on fellow handicapper Sam Hollingsworth. He’s a very good horseplayer, but an even better guy that puts up with almost-daily requests from some annoying dude based in California to pass along the pick box. If you missed the article (written by this year’s hardest-working man in show business, Stan Hudy), it’s up on The Saratogian’s website.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Engage looked to be in perfect position turning for home in the Amsterdam, but Promises Fulfilled had something left in the tank, repelled the charge, and turned the $20 double ticket into confetti. One note: While California Swing ran second in the second race, that $5 win-place bet was cancelled when the race was switched from turf to the main track. If you’re curious, I would’ve made a whopping 75 cents on that wager.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: From a betting standpoint, this hits me as an excellent card. I’ll focus on the late Pick Four, where I’ll attempt to get a pair of singles home to finish off the program. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh, and is as follows: ALL with 1,2,5,6,10,11 with 4 with 1. I’ll also play a cold $5 double linking my two singles (Wow Cat in the ninth, Powerstroke in the tenth).

TOTAL WAGERED: $32

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Wow Cat, Race 9
Longshot: Uno Mas Modelo, Race 7

Lou’s Chardonnay
Summer Punch
Promises Broken

#5 LOU’S CHARDONNAY: Hated turf last time out and comes back to dirt while also taking a steep drop in class. It’s always tough to predict if Churchill form will travel, but the recent local workout inspires some confidence; #6 SUMMER PUNCH: Has never missed the board on dirt and recently drilled a weaker field downstate. She’s been off for a bit, but this barn connects at a high rate with similar returning runners; #7 PROMISES BROKEN: Hasn’t won in a while, but cuts back in distance and takes a slight class drop third off the layoff. She’s shown ample early speed in the past, and the cushy outside post is a plus.

Miko
Ultimate Cause
Lady Love

#2 MIKO: Is one of many in here exiting a strangely-run race on July 4th. I’m not crazy about the race itself, but this one seems like the lone early speed in the field. She won over this turf course last year and could sit a picture-perfect trip; #10 ULTIMATE CAUSE: Stretches back out in distance after finishing fourth against better turf sprinters downstate. The outside post isn’t idea, but John Velazquez getting the call should mean she gets a chance at an OK trip; #1 LADY LOVE: Found her form at Tampa this past winter/spring and ran on well in her first start for Charlton Baker. The lack of early speed hurts, but when this barn gets horses going in the right direction, they tend to stay on the correct path.

Leah’s Dream (MTO)
Factoring
Glossy

#8 FACTORING: Won two in a row before a wide trip last time out. She finished fourth behind a next-out winner that day, and if this race stays on turf, she strikes me as the horse to beat; #7 GLOSSY: Beat weaker foes pretty easily last time out and is another that would benefit from a fast pace. She’s worked well downstate and is certainly a major player; #6 TEXAS MUSIC: Seems like the main pace presence here off a win at Presque Isle. Ricardo Santana, Jr., has gotten off to a strong start this meet, and she could get brave on the front end. DIRT SELECTIONS: LEAH’S DREAM, TEXAS MUSIC, PARANOIA.

Always Shopping
Into the South
Rotate

#6 ALWAYS SHOPPING: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and is bred to be a good one. She’ll be ridden by John Velazquez and has worked fairly well leading up to her career debut, where she’ll likely be a short price; #3 INTO THE SOUTH: Was disqualified from second in her career debut at Churchill Downs, but unlike #1 MERADA (who exits the same race), she’s worked well since then. Improvement is logical at second asking; #5 ROTATE: Is very intriguing, even though Bill Mott runners often need a race or two to get going. She’s worked very well leading up to her unveiling and could be a square price.

Anazara (MTO)
Alternative Energy
Tapping Colors

#4 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY: Fetched $280,000 at auction despite a modest pedigree and has worked well ahead of her debut. She boasts an impressive 336 turf Tomlinson rating and should love the grass for live connections; #10 TAPPING COLORS: Has had her chances, but stands a big chance here if she can repeat her efforts downstate. She’s been second at this level twice in a row and should be coming late; #7 MY BRONX TAIL: May have bounced last time out after a strong effort two back off the layoff. She has plenty of zip and could show the way early. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANAZARA, FACE IT, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY.

Rugbyman (MTO)
Strike Me Down
Own Agenda

#5 STRIKE ME DOWN: Gets my top pick in an event that hits me as the best betting race of the day. He had a nightmare trip in the Queen’s Plate, but still rallied to finish fourth behind Wonder Gadot, one of the top 3-year-old fillies in North America; #12 OWN AGENDA: Graduated last time out and tries winners for the first time, but is bred to love the turf and should be pretty prominent early. With that in mind, he strikes me as an overlay at anywhere close to his 15-1 morning line price; #4 PRIORITIZE: Won at first asking going two turns at Gulfstream, which is never easy to do. His most recent race wasn’t bad, and it came in a fast race for the level, so there’s reason to believe there’s talent here. DIRT SELECTIONS: RUGBYMAN, PONY UP, PROVEN RESERVES.

Lerner entry
Uno Mas Modelo
Have Another

LERNER ENTRY: I prefer #1 RUNAWAY LUTE, although #1A HONORABLE TREASURE could win, too. The former earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in a big win over state-breds, and a repeat performance would make him a major player in this wide-open event; #8 UNO MAS MODELO: Cruised home at this distance last time out at Churchill, and his record looks much better if you toss the two-turn races. His flexible running style is a plus, and I think he merits a look at a price; #5 HAVE ANOTHER: Missed the break a bit last time out and won two in a row before that effort. He’s 2-for-2 at this distance, and it certainly looks like he’s in career form.

New York’s Finest
Battle in Seattle
Rocket Heat

#6 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Has not lost in four races at Saratoga, which makes him a must-use in all multi-race wagers. He looked sharp last time out at Monmouth, and he should be prominent early on; #2 BATTLE IN SEATTLE: Just missed when flying late last time out at Belmont, and the ample early speed signed on could set things up for a closer. He’s improved in all three American starts and could keep progressing here; #10 ROCKET HEAT: Is incredibly fast out of the gate and was second in back-to-back stakes races ahead of this event. The outside post hurts, as does the other speed signed on, but it’s tough to ignore him.

Wow Cat
Farrell
Pacific Wind

#4 WOW CAT: Did not lose in eight starts in her native Chile and has been working very well for Chad Brown. This isn’t a field of pushovers, but all indications are that this filly is the real deal; #7 FARRELL: Has run very well in a pair of high-profile races lately, and she looks like the main speed in this race. It’s likely that she’ll be the one to catch going around the far turn; #6 PACIFIC WIND: Won two in a row before chasing Abel Tasman in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. Her best race would make her a player here, although it’s fair to question if she’s better around one turn.

R10

Powerstroke
Singapore Trader
Cross Multiply

#1 POWERSTROKE: Seems like the lone speed, and on the inner turf, that makes him very, very dangerous. He was a good third in his first try at the level, and he may have things all his own way early; #14 SINGAPORE TRADER: Merits a long look if he draws in off the AE list. His races against maiden special weight foes were OK, and his best effort may have come here last summer when he was second behind a talented horse (eventual stakes winner Evaluator); #10 CROSS MULTIPLY: Ran the best race of his career last time out, when he was second at a price downstate. A repeat of that effort gives him a shot, but this is his first try going two turns, which isn’t an easy thing to do.