handicapping

Handicapping Slumps, and How to Beat Them

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Some of you who have visited my new site have been nice enough to write in through the ‘contact’ feature. I read every message I get, and one I got Monday resonated with me in a very particular way.

It was from Ed in New Mexico. Ed is a handicapper (and by all indications, a very nice guy!) who admitted he seemed to be in a rut, and he asked me if there was anything I could recommend to get him out of it.

It takes a lot of guts to admit you’re in a slump, and it also takes strength to reach out and ask for advice. That isn’t something everyone does. As such, this blog post is intended to serve as my two cents on slump-busting, and hopefully, horseplayers out there can take something from it.

My take on slumps is this: It’s not if you’re losing, or even how much money you’re losing (although one should certainly bet within his/her financial means at all times). More than anything (to me, at least!), what’s important is HOW your bets are losing. That makes all the difference in the world, and if you can correctly diagnose the problem, then chances are you’ll have taken a big step towards future handicapping success.

The first thing I suggest is to study your bets, relive your philosophy, and see where things went wrong. Go into your betting archives (every ADW website has them), watch replays of races you’ve bet on, and take yourself through why you made the bets you placed.

If you consider yourself a skilled handicapper, there’s a reasonable chance that, a sizable percentage of time, your pre-race opinion will actually be closer to what happened than you’d like to admit. Maybe you thought a horse would get loose on the lead, and it did, only to get run down. Perhaps you thought a race would set up for a closer, and it did, but you bet the wrong late-running horse. Alternatively, from a betting standpoint, maybe your three-horse exacta box ran 1-3-4, maybe the longshot you put a win-place bet on ran very well, only to finish third, or maybe your Pick Four ticket went 3-for-4.

If any of this sounds familiar, I’ve got good news for you: That’s just racing luck. You aren’t doing as much wrong as a profit/loss sheet will show you, and you’re not seeing the ball badly. It’s the horse racing equivalent of a baseball player getting ahold of a fastball and crushing it, but it going to the deepest part of the playing field and getting caught, or getting lined right at a defensive player. The stats only show it as an out, and it looks the same as a weak ground ball to the pitcher, but the hitter did a lot right that the stat sheet won’t show.

Once you clear that mental hurdle, look at the horses you’ve bet on. Did they fall victim to track biases? Are you overvaluing certain connections or angles that aren’t as profitable as they’ve been in the past? Is there one condition or route of ground where your ROI really suffers? Handicapping is like anything else in life in this respect: The more homework you do, the more prepared you’ll be for success moving forward.

If it turns out you’re off by a considerable margin, look at the horses that do well at certain tracks, class levels, and routes of ground. What trends do you see? How does this go against your handicapping? Is there a measure you can take to tweak your approach to those races, and are there races you should skip because you’re not confident enough to bet them consistently? Don’t be afraid to ask yourself the tough questions. Often, answering them will make you a better, more profitable horseplayer.

I made a baseball reference earlier, and there’s another comparison between sports that needs to be made. Baseball players and handicappers both tend to fail similar amounts of time. Good handicappers strive for about 30% winners as far as win-only selections are concerned, and good baseball players strive to hit .300. The important thing to remember is that a 30% success rate means a 70% failure rate. If you fancy yourself a serious handicapper, you must come to terms with the fact that you are going to be wrong most of the time in some way, shape, or form.

What’s important is not how often you fail, but how you apply what you know every time you look at a race, go to a betting window, or fire up your ADW account. If you get knocked out of a Pick Four sequence early, and realize you’re seeing the ball well and have confidence in your selections, jump back in with a double or a Pick Three. If your top picks are running second and third consistently, box exactas rather than keying that 10-1 horse you think can win. If you know you’re not having a good day and you see your handicapping is all over the place, relax, find something else to do, and regroup once you can re-examine where things went amiss. This game is a marathon, not a sprint, and gambling opportunities are plentiful every single day.

Not everyone wants to shine a light on where things went wrong. However, doing that, and seeing where, why, and how certain bets may have gone haywire, is something I’ve found key to busting out of slumps. It’s a confidence-booster if the horses you like run well, and it’s an instructional tool if your approach needs refinement. Ed: Hopefully, that answers your question.

Got a question? Got a gripe? Think there’s something I should know? Head to the ‘contact’ section, and send me a message. Like I said, I read everything that gets sent my way.

Pick Four Analysis: Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby Day (4/8/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve got three Kentucky Derby prep races coming up Saturday. Last week, this space featured how to play these races on $20 budgets. However, we had a very good day with Pick Four tickets, as two of them hit (including a $6 ticket at Gulfstream that returned nearly $230!). With that in mind, I’m going to focus on Pick Four sequences at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita that all feature these prep races and could present some value.

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 8
R10: 3,7,8
R11: 1,4,5,8
R12: 1,3,7

36 bets, $18

RATIONALE: #8 Unified will be a popular single in the opening leg, the Grade 1 Carter, and for good reason. He defeated Mind Your Biscuits in his 4-year-old debut, and that rival went on to cruise home in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. #2 Tommy Macho and #9 Ocean Knight are solid horses, but if Unified repeats or improves upon his last-out effort, he’ll be very tough to beat.

I used the logical horses in legs two and three, the Wood Memorial and the Gazelle. The only horse that will likely take money in the Wood while remaining off my ticket is #2 Mo Town, whose Remsen win has lost plenty of its luster with those he beat not doing much since then. I went four-deep in the Gazelle, and I hope that’s enough, as I’m not sold on this year’s crop of 3-year-old fillies and it seems like many of these can win.

The nightcap features my price play of the day across all three tracks. The entry of #1 Broken Engagement and #1A Super Luke will likely be favored, and #3 Build to Suit merits respect, too. However, there’s a longshot that I think you need to use. #7 Money Laundering’s pedigree doesn’t jump off the page, but he fetched a respectable $40,000 at auction last May after being bred for just $3,500. A deep dive shows that his dam is a half-sister to Hilda’s Passion, a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The workouts are solid, trainer Bruce Levine can win with first-time starters, and with the exception of Broken Engagement and maybe #5 Altesino (who’s 0-for-7 with six minor cashes, the kind of horse I HATE betting in a Pick Four sequence), the form among those that have run before isn’t anything to write home about. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I hope we get that price.

KEENELAND

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2,3,6,7,8
R8: 4,5,6
R9: 2
R10: 2,4,7

45 bets, $22.50

RATIONALE: The fields in this sequence aren’t huge, but this Pick Four could still pay handsomely. There may not be a single prohibitive favorite in this group of races, and if you can find a spot to take a stand, I think you can create some value.

The Shakertown kicks things off, and it’s a handicapping puzzle. If you want to hit the “ALL” button, I get it (that turns the ticket into a $40.50 play), but I was able to at least throw four horses out. The Madison (the second leg) is no picnic, either, but I settled on going three-deep with horses that are in good form: #4 Constellation, #5 High Ridge Road, and #6 Paulassilverlining.

My single comes in the third leg, the Ashland. #2 Elate salvaged third in the Grade 3 Honeybee despite an absolutely awful break, and the horse that won that race, It Tiz Well, will likely be the second choice in a much tougher spot (the Santa Anita Oaks). Elate has hinted at tons of potential in her short career, and barring more adventures leaving the gate, I think she could sit a dream trip just off the early speed. If she does, I think she’ll be tough to beat.

In the Blue Grass, I used three of the four logical horses. I’m not sold on J Boys Echo, who may have trounced a weak field in the Gotham and gets a stiff class test here against some of the top 3-year-olds in the country. I’ll let him beat me if he’s good enough, and I’ll settle on #2 McCraken, #4 Tapwrit, and #7 Practical Joke.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 2,3,6,9
R9: 1
R10: 1,4,6,8 (2)
R11: 2,3,5,9,10

80 bets, $40

RATIONALE: Some Pick Fours should be treated like win bets with enhanced odds, and this is one of them. I’m going deep in three of the four legs and singling #1 Sircat Sally in the Providencia. She’ll likely be even-money, at best. However, if this Pick Four hits, I’ll likely get at least 4-1 on my money, making it a worthwhile investment.

That payoff is because the other three races are very tough. The Santa Anita Derby kicks things off, and while #9 Iliad is a nice horse and a worthy favorite, he’s no cinch. #6 American Anthem’s effort in the Rebel is a complete throw-out, and the 1-2 finishers in a March 9th allowance event, #3 Battle of Midway and #2 Reach the World, have both worked lights-out since then.

The 10th is the Echo Eddie for Cal-breds, and it’s the first of two very challenging races to close things out. #8 California Diamond is an honest horse who’s never been out of the top two in 10 career starts, but this may be the toughest field he’s faced at the state-bred level. If there are any scratches of horses I’ve used in this race, throw in #2 B Squared, a sibling to Grade 1 winner Ralis who I just didn’t have the budget to use.

As far as the 11th is concerned…good luck. We’ve got class drops, equipment switches, and jockey changes, all among a group of horses that, by and large, hasn’t shown a whole lot. There is one big price I used here. #10 Great is 20-1 on the morning line, but he takes a drop into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time and exits what seems like a very strong maiden special weight event. That race last month was his first outing since November, and improvement is certainly logical at a big price.

Keeneland Opening Day Late Pick Four Analysis (4/7/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is Opening Day at Keeneland, and we’ve got a late Pick Four sequence that, with a little bit of luck, could pay handsomely. I won’t do this for every racing day, but for Opening Day, it’s prudent to go through the late Pick Four sequence and offer a ticket.

As with the Rainbow Six write-up from Sunday, I’ll go race-by-race and explain my rationale. Hopefully, this $36 ticket will be a more fruitful endeavor!

RACE #7: 2, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 (12)

This is a very difficult race to decipher, and if you’ve got deep enough pockets to hit the “ALL” button, go right ahead. I’ll be using six horses in here, and hopefully that’s enough. Four are second-time starters, and that counts #13 Tweeting, who is on the also-eligible list. If there are any scratches, or if Tweeting does not draw in, replace the scratched horse with #12 Swat, who merits respect coming off the layoff for the team of Eddie Kenneally and Javier Castellano.

One horse to watch at a price in here is #2 Miss Adele, who’s been working lights-out at Payson Park in Florida. Roger Attfield hasn’t had a great year so far, but Paco Lopez hops aboard after a strong Gulfstream meet, and this one is a juicy 15-1 on the morning line.

RACE #8: 3

The first of two singles on my ticket comes in the eighth. #3 Mutaraamy is a standout by any measure in this six-furlong allowance. It’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, as this gelding will make just the fourth start of his career on Friday. However, his best race likely means a romp in this spot, and all indications are that such an effort is on the horizon.

RACE #9: 4

#4 Oscar Performance was last seen beating a number of these rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He makes his 3-year-old debut in this spot, the Grade III Transylvania, and despite the layoff, I can’t go against him. On paper, he looks like the main early speed in here, and while I respect the likes of Ticonderoga, Sonic Boom, and Big Score (all very solid turf horses in what could be a fun division to follow), any of those three would have to improve substantially to beat Oscar Performance if that one fires his best shot.

RACE #10: ALL

You may have seen this coming after the back-to-back singles. The fact is, I do not have a clue how to break down the payoff leg of this Pick Four sequence. This is a very tricky condition, featuring turf horses running on dirt, horses on the way up the class ladder, and horses dropping down. I couldn’t begin to narrow this down, but thankfully, I didn’t have to in order to come in under my soft budget of $40. I’m using them all here, and hopefully, we can sit back, relax, and get a price home to close things out.

THE TICKET

R7: 2,6,7,8,11,13 (12, in the event of a scratch)
R8: 3
R9: 4
R10: ALL

72 bets, $36

Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six Analysis: 4/2/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Sunday is the final day of the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park, and because of that, all multi-race wagers must pay out in full. This includes the Rainbow Six, which has built itself up over the past several weeks and could boast a pool of more than $5 million by post time of the day’s sixth race.

I’ll look to ride the momentum from a very successful Saturday, where this space gave out a pair of winning Pick Four tickets (including a $6 wager that returned nearly $230!). I’ve managed to cobble together a $36 ticket for a 20-cent wager, and it’s certainly worth taking a swing given the size of the pool. I’ll go race-by-race and dissect my strategy.

RACE #6: 6, 8, 9

We start off with a maiden claiming event, and to be kind, there’s not much in the way of proven form in here. I held my nose and went three-deep; hopefully, that’s enough to get us out of the first leg.

#6 Quality A. Rod drops way down in class after two failed tries in the maiden special weight ranks. He also cuts back in distance for trainer Mike Maker, and the drop alone makes him a formidable foe. Meanwhile, #8 Do It Fast may be the main early speed in the race and ran OK two back at this level, while #9 Delta Force lost all chance at the break in his debut, sports a solid work since that outing, and adds blinkers.

RACE #7: 3

In sequences like this, you need to single at some point to keep ticket costs down. While I’m not infatuated by the horse I wound up singling here, I do like him a considerable amount, and if he doesn’t win, I have no clue who does, since the others pretty much look exactly the same.

#3 Completely Bonkers beat state-bred company two back with a huge late move and returned against unrestricted foes on February 18th. He was fifth that day, but finished just two lengths behind Delta Prince, who ran very well when second in Saturday’s Grade 3 Appleton. This is probably an easier spot, and this ultra-consistent 4-year-old is a deserving 2-1 favorite on the morning line.

RACE #8: 5, 6, 7, 9, 11

If you’ve got deeper pockets (or more than one solid single) and want to punch the “ALL” button here, go ahead and do that. For the sake of keeping my ticket cost down, I settled on going five-deep, and I really hope the morning line holds up, because some of these horses figure to be prices at post time.

My top pick is a horse taking a slight drop in class in his second start off a layoff. That’s #9 Arpinella, who showed some speed from a bad post at the $35,000 maiden claiming level before fading late. He probably needed the race, this seems like a softer spot, and the post position (while still not ideal) is at least slightly better this time around.

That’s by no means a top pick I’m highly confident about, though, and there are several others in here that could win this at a price. I’ll focus on two in particular. #5 Last Lightning was a close-up second against lesser company in his debut before stopping badly when last seen in January. However, he finally tries turf today, and this 3-year-old has the pedigree to love it. He’s by world-class turf miler Leroidesanimaux, and out of a mare named Glaire, who was a Grade 1 winner on turf in her native Brazil. That makes Last Lightning a half-brother to a horse named Exclusive Strike, whose career highlight was a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Man o’ War going long on the sod.

Additionally, #7 Sin Llorar is a first-time starter with a strong pedigree of his own. His dam was a three-time winner on turf, in addition to being a half-sister to Storm Boot, a sire of 46 stakes winners. His trainer has shown an ability to win with first-time starters, and it’s not like he’d have to be much to place well in here.

RACE #9: 6, 7

I often enjoy taking first-time starters in races where the horses that have run before haven’t shown much. In this case, my top pick is a debuting daughter of Discreetly Mine, but I couldn’t bring myself to single her in this wager.

#7 Cope has a strong series of workouts, and it’s a bit surprising to see her entered for a $12,500 tag in her unveiling. If she runs to her workouts against this group, I think she’s absolutely the one to beat. I’ll also throw in #6 Cindy’s Candy, who cuts back to 5 ½ furlongs after an OK second at this level going a mile. She was second going this distance in her debut last October, and she’d benefit from a pace meltdown up front.

RACE #10: 4, 7, 9

If there are scratches elsewhere on this ticket, expect me to add a horse or two in here. This is a very challenging $16,000 claimer on the turf, featuring many horses that have been at this level for a long time.

#4 Forall the Marbles is my top pick, due in no small part to a substantial edge in back class over the rest of this group. Many of his recent outings have come against better groups, and he drops down to this level after tiring to finish seventh against optional claiming foes. Forall the Marbles was claimed that day, his new trainer is hitting at a ridiculous 38% clip with new acquisitions, and the last time he ran at this level, he was a wire-to-wire winner here in January.

I’ll also use #7 Rock Eagle and #9 Entwistle, both of whom are in OK form and should be flying late. If there are scratches, I may also use #1 Mr. Magic or #8 Gracious Plenty, but for now, I’ll go with my first three and hope that’s enough.

RACE #11: 2, 5

If we get to this point, we’ll be two-deep for, hopefully, large stacks of cash. Sometimes, going two-deep provides a false sense of security, especially in a big field. However, in here, I’m more than happy to stop there, as I think I’ve got the class of the field on my ticket.

#5 Tiger Paw takes a big drop in class from the $30,000 claiming level for aggressive connections. He’s been competitive against much better groups in the past, but owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey are reportedly downsizing their operation, meaning aggressive spots at lower levels. I’ll also use #2 Chivalrous, who broke through last time out in his first start for a new barn with a win against non-winners-of-two company. He takes a step up in class here, but Nik Juarez stays aboard, and this one could sit a dream trip rating just off the early speed.

Here’s a look at the ticket, which, again, costs $36 for a 20-cent bet. If there are scratches, check out my Twitter feed (@AndrewChampagne) for any modifications.

R6: 6,8,9
R7: 3
R8: 5,6,7,9,11
R9: 6,7
R10: 4,7,9
R11: 2,5

Best of luck with your Rainbow Six ticket!