The Worst Horse Racing Opinion(s) I’ve Ever Seen

On Thursday, I read one of the most-pompous, least-informed “letters to the editor” in the history of journalism. It was published on the Thoroughbred Daily News website, and it contained a variety of wild accusations and untruths about horse racing journalists and media companies. Should you want to read it and subject yourself to the nonsense as we go along, here you go.

Before we go much further, I feel it prudent to point out my experience in the field. I worked with The Saratogian, HRTV, TVG, and The Daily Racing Form on a full-time basis. I’ve written for print and websites, I’ve run social media platforms, and I’ve geared content to a variety of different audiences. Everywhere I’ve gone, I’ve achieved significant growth in key metrics, and I’ve been fortunate to meet a lot of good people doing various things to keep each business going.

I’m not in racing full-time anymore, but I’m fortunate to still do plenty. I host a show on the On The Wrong Lead podcast network, I freelance for The Paulick Report and The Pink Sheet, and this site you’re on right now got more than 30,000 hits during the 2022 Saratoga meet. It hit that total with zero in the way of paid promotion, and with its only hype being on my social media platforms and the occasional blurb in The Pink Sheet.

I’m not saying this to gloat, but to prove that any decent list of competent horse racing writers, editors, podcast/video people, etc., has me on it. That gives me the credentials to be taken seriously when I say that this letter to the editor is barely worth the microscopic amount of space it takes up on the TDN servers.

Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look. Firstly, let this sink in: The writer of the letter to the editor, who urged accountability and transparency, requested anonymity.

That’s not a typo or an untruth. Already, the letter starts from behind, as the writer fails to practice what they preach and doesn’t understand the absurdity of what they’ve produced. How is this writer any better than the, ahem, “journalists with an agenda” they complain about, when the letter-writer is content to lob grenades from behind a cloak of anonymity? If you want to show you care about writers being held accountable for what they write, be accountable yourself.

That brings me to the “most journalists have an agenda” comment. Trying to keep this part brief is hard, but in short: No. To paraphrase my good friend and Catena Media colleague Alicia Hughes, news is good, bad, and indifferent. It doesn’t care what you think a reporter should or shouldn’t be covering, and it’s a good reporter’s duty to cover everything, warts and all. Like every sport, racing has its share of warts, and trying to act like they don’t exist is borderline delusional.

Reporters are not publicists, no matter how much executives at many racing and breeding organizations that employ publicists want them to be. Stuff gets tricky, awkward, and messy sometimes. That’s the nature of the beast, and fair reporters get that reputation by covering newsworthy stories that come their way, not by cherry-picking and only writing the warm and fuzzy stuff.

(On a related note: Have you ever noticed the people who say reporters need to be writing happier stories are often the ones saying racing should be covered like a mainstream sport? Go watch ESPN’s coverage of the situation involving NBA star Ja Morant and tell me how good reporters would cover any mildly-controversial issue in racing. If you can’t stand the heat thrown by solid reporters NOW, imagine the scrutiny that would come with being covered “like a mainstream sport.”)

Moving on, we get to complaints about “dishonesty at each stage of the pipeline, from the sources through the writers to the readers.” This also included that sources of most stories “are agitators that pull the strings by contributing to online fearmongering publications.”

This is about when my anger turned into bewilderment. To recap: Most journalists have an agenda, everyone’s lying…and it’s the PUBLICATIONS, not the writer of this letter, that are, ahem, “fearmongering?” These are tactics straight out of low-rent sensationalist political talk shows that paint pictures of “us” versus “them.” They don’t stand up to any level of scrutiny, and it’s another example of why this attitude should never be taken seriously.

I don’t shy away from what I write, and neither do a lot of extremely talented writers I’m proud to call friends and colleagues. They’ve won Eclipse Awards for what they do. They wake up at dawn, take in workouts, go through days at the races and nights at the sales, write brilliantly about the things they see, and in some cases don’t get paid nearly enough for the quality of their work. They deserve better than flimsy, lazy attacks from someone who doesn’t have the courage to publicly identify themselves, and I’m about done staying quiet about it.

Stuff like we saw in the TDN Thursday isn’t okay, and I’m not alone in thinking it. Don Clippinger wrote a rebuttal to that letter that TDN, to their credit, published later in the day. I’ll quote some of his response here, because it puts things in perspective very well:

“The motivation of most all the journalists I’ve encountered in that time, which probably number in the thousands, was to get the story and get it right. That means telling both sides of the story. True, I have seen instances where the text may have been influenced by a losing bet, and industry members have at times tried unsuccessfully to throw their weight around in publications.

But those instances are exceedingly rare. To say that these journalists are ‘dishonest,’ to use the word of the anonymous coward, borders on libel.”

I’m big on accountability. My name is on everything I’ve ever written or produced at every outlet I’ve ever worked for, and as those who know me well can attest, I’ve taken my fair share of lumps for it. If anyone has a problem with anything my name is associated with, I’m a VERY easy guy to find.

With that in mind, there’s no dishonesty, clickbait, or sensationalism when I say this: The letter run by the TDN was a slap in the face to a LOT of good people. It was put into the world by someone who created the kind of negative story they wrote in to complain about, and the writer did so by lobbing wild, unjustified, and unsourced insults and accusations at folks who deserve much, much better.

Shame on them, shame on anyone who thinks this way, and shame on those who enable these people to continue acting as though good, hard-working writers are somehow the enemy of this industry.

2022 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis And Selections (11/5/22)

The 2022 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. We’re on to the Saturday program, which boasts 12 races in total and nine that fall under the Breeders’ Cup umbrella.

In addition to my analysis down below, I’ve been fortunate to be part of some awesome shows and podcasts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. You’ll find those videos embedded below, and links to podcasts will be there as well.

That’s What G Said: Distaff

Alright, time for a huge block of text. As I did last year, I’ll spend more time and energy on races where I have strong opinions (me blabbering on and on in races where I don’t feel strongly about any particular runner doesn’t help anybody). Let’s get to it!

RACE #1: We start bright and early, with a seven-furlong maiden race scheduled for 10:30 am Eastern (7:30 for those of us on the west coast). Thankfully, there’s something worth waking up for, because I like a horse that shouldn’t be favored.

#12 REAGAN ran very well in his debut. He was beaten just a neck that day, and while that day’s winner didn’t run well against winners Friday, I still think this one is very live. Seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, and in addition to having an experience edge on most of this group, Reagan also draws a cushy outside post in this 13-horse field. Add in a significant rider switch to Luis Saez, and I think there’s lots of plusses here.

#4 ARABIAN KNIGHT and #10 EXPECT MORE may have talent. However, I like Reagan on top, and I think he may drift up from his 4-1 morning line price.

RACE #2: I can’t see this optional claimer as anything more than a two-horse race. #2 NAKATOMI and #3 MESSIER look significantly faster than the rest of the field. I sincerely hope the morning line odds hold up, though my guess is the respective 9/2 and 4-1 prices will come down.

RACE #3: The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is the Filly and Mare Sprint. Last year’s renewal was very good for me, as #4 CE CE came rolling home to ensure a very good day. I think this year’s edition goes a bit differently, but I still like a closer on top.

#7 OBLIGATORY has one way of going. She wants to drop back behind a fast pace and come flying late. She had significant traffic problems in the Grade 1 Ballerina, ones the running line doesn’t adequately explain. There’s a lot of speed in this race, and I think it sets up very well for what Obligatory wants to do.

#8 GOODNIGHT OLIVE is the 3-1 morning line choice. She makes some sense, as does #13 ECHO ZULU. Those two and Obligatory are the ones I’ll primarily be leaning on.

RACE #4: The Turf Sprint features #8 GOLDEN PAL, who has never lost a North American turf race. I don’t think he’s a cinch, but he does hit me as this race’s most likely winner.

I can’t get too crazy with any alternatives. The only one that intrigues me at all is #11 CASA CREED, and he’ll be on a few saver tickets in case someone goes with Golden Pal and sets things up for a deep closer. However, I’d like him more at six or seven furlongs than this 5 1/2-furlong distance.

RACE #5: This one hurts. I didn’t just like #6 LAUREL RIVER in the Dirt Mile. I loved Laurel River and saw him as a single. That one scratching Friday morning was a stomach punch, and it forced a complete re-evaluation of this race.

I don’t think #5 GUNITE wants to go two turns, so I’m playing against him. #7 CODY’S WISH isn’t totally illogical, but he’ll be a very short price and he’s another that sure seems more effective going one turn. #9 CYBERKNIFE, meanwhile, will take money, but while his best is good enough to win this, it’s fair to wonder if he peaked over the summer.

With that in mind, I’ll take a shot with #3 PIPELINE. He seems like the main speed in this race, and he went toe-to-toe with Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Forego last time out. I think he’ll be able to sit an easier trip in here, where there isn’t quite as much early zip on paper. Pipeline is 8-1 on the morning line, and that hits me as the best value in the field.

RACE #6: European runners dominated Friday’s turf races, and I think that trend continues Saturday. They’ve got the top three contenders in the Filly and Mare Turf, and I can’t get past that trio.

#3 NASHWA, #4 ABOVE THE CURVE, and #5 TUESDAY are all good enough to win this on their best day. Given that War Like Goddess’s connections opted to go against boys, the North American contingent just doesn’t hit me as a strong one.

RACE #7: First things first, if #9 JACKIE’S WARRIOR runs his best race, he almost certainly does not lose. However, there’s a bonkers price I’ll also be using, just in case he either misfires or gets caught up in a speed duel early on.

I think #3 O BESOS has been a sprinter all along. His connections ran him in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but three of his four wins have come at sprint distances. That includes a last-out score in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs, which was his first start since April. I think he’s sitting on a career-best race, and if you’re looking for another horse to use in exotics or contests, O Besos hits me as a logical price play.

RACE #8: Another turf race, another where the European runners loom large. However, while I respect #4 MODERN GAMES and will be using him, I like another Euro on top at a slightly bigger price.

#3 DREAMLOPER was excellent in a Group 1 romp last time out. The two starts before that weren’t great, but I think the distance of those races wasn’t to his liking. It’s possible he’s just not a 10-furlong horse, and he certainly stepped forward in a big way when he was cut back to a mile at Longchamp. A repeat of that performance would make him very, very tough in this spot.

A few American runners are intriguing underneath. #6 IVAR should get a pace to close into, and #8 REGAL GLORY is as consistent as they come. Having said that, most of my multi-race tickets will revolve around Dreamloper and Modern Games.

RACE #9: The Breeders’ Cup Distaff came up a bit short on quantity, but not at all short on quality. In addition, I think it’s a fun betting race because I believe #6 NEST is an underlay. She can win, but her figures don’t tower over a very strong bunch of older fillies and mares, and I feel like she’ll be overbet.

I much prefer both #1 MALATHAAT and #4 CLAIRIERE. The former is 3-for-3 at Keeneland, the latter’s last-out effort is too poor to be true, and both should benefit from a race that has some early speed in it. Add in that neither runner is likely to be favored, and my interest gets piqued even more.

I’ll also throw in #7 SEARCH RESULTS on some of my tickets. I think she may sit a dream stalking trip behind #8 SOCIETY, and she may be the one they have to run down late.

RACE #10: More turf races, more Euros. The Breeders’ Cup Turf, naturally, has an international feel to it, and while I respect #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS, I think she’ll be up against it a bit against some of Europe’s highest-class runners.

I’ll be using #4 BROOME, #7 NATION’S PRIDE, and #11 MISHRIFF. Broome did everything but win this race a season ago when he was a tough-luck second behind Yibir. Like last year, he comes in off a misfire in the Arc de Triomphe, but he’ll get firmer ground, which he should appreciate. Also like last year, he figures to be a square price, which only adds to his appeal.

If you’re going to back an American runner, I’d recommend taking a look at #9 GOLD PHOENIX. This is a significant class hike, to be sure, but he had plenty of trouble early on last time out and was beaten just a neck despite having to rate well behind a modest pace. Flavien Prat had options, but he lands here, and that’s always a good sign.

RACE #11: Don’t get cute. Single #4 FLIGHTLINE and move on.

RACE #12: Yes, there’s a race after the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and it’s a fun one. #4 DALIKA and #5 SHANTISARA headline the Fall Harvest, and I prefer the former, who may not be favored despite coming in off of back-to-back graded stakes wins. She tailed off a bit late last year, but Al Stall has her going in the right direction. If the 7/2 morning line odds hold, that may be enough to entice a win bet.

2022 BREEDERS’ CUP: Friday Analysis And Selections (11/4/22)

The 2022 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. The two-day event starts Friday at Keeneland, with five races for 2-year-olds and an intriguing undercard that also offers plenty of wagering opportunities.

In addition to my analysis down below, I’ve been fortunate to be part of some awesome shows and podcasts leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. You’ll find those videos embedded below, and links to podcasts will be there as well.

That’s What G Said: Juvenile Fillies Turf

Alright, time for a huge block of text. As I did last year, I’ll spend more time and energy on races where I have strong opinions (me blabbering on and on in races where I don’t feel strongly about any particular runner doesn’t help anybody). Let’s get to it!

RACE #1: I’m not crazy about the post position #8 OPEN ROAD draws, but I think he’s a 3-year-old set to make significant progress late in the year. He comes in off of a win in a first-level allowance over a loaded field. The runner-up, Strong Quality, has talent, and third-place finisher Tiz Rye Time came back to win at next asking.

I think he’s got the tactical speed to clear some of his rivals early and establish position, which isn’t necessarily something likely favorite #6 B DAWK can do. Let’s see if we can get the likely second choice home to kick off the day.

RACE #2: I sincerely hope the daughter of Tapit and Songbird, #2 MAGICAL SONG, gets bet, because I don’t like her. Her works are just-OK, and debuting at seven furlongs is no easy task.

I prefer second-time starter #6 KLASSY BRIDGETTE, who closed to be second in her debut at Churchill and should get plenty of pace to run at. If you want a first-time starter, I’d recommend #8 VIVID DREAMS, whose most recent drill was very sharp, but again, this is a tough first assignment.

RACE #3: #11 MARSALIS will be a very heavy favorite, and he’s my top pick. If you want to extract some value, I’d suggest playing him in exactas with #3 SPARTAN ARMY (who goes second off a long layoff) and #6 PRO OXIDANT (who ran very well in his debut at should come back to form on a cutback in distance).

RACE #4: #9 ARABIAN LION is another heavy chalk that seems live. It’s a Bob Baffert trainee coming in off of earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure in an impressive first-out win last month. He’s the one to beat, but I don’t think he’s a cinch.

#11 TRES SOLES and #12 PROTEGE both intrigue me at bigger prices. The former wound up on the lead by default in his debut, is bred to want the added distance he gets here, and boasts the Steve Asmussen work tab I love (the two-back work is fast, the most recent drill is a maintenance move). The latter, meanwhile, was professional in victory first time out for a barn whose debuting runners don’t often win. That day’s runner-up was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher and has since come back to win.

If Arabian Lion wins, will I be shocked? No. Will I probably still be alive? Yes. Do I think he’s a single, though? No.

RACE #5: The Grade 2 TAA (formerly the Breeders’ Cup Marathon) has no proven marathoners, and anything can happen. If ever there was a time to hit the “ALL” button, it’s here.

RACE #6: Breeders’ Cup action starts here, with the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and it’s a confounding race. My “Drank’n Champagne” co-host, Josh Rodriguez, really likes #2 LOVE REIGNS. I see why, and that one wouldn’t shock me, but to be honest, I can say the same about nearly half this field.

I’ll give two bombs that you probably want on those late Pick Five tickets. #6 PERSIAN FORCE was a half-length behind Blackbeard in the Group 1 Prix Morny two back, and that day’s rider, the ever-dangerous Frankie Dettori, sees fit to ride back. In addition, #9 SHARP AZA TACK was sent away at 1/5 odds in a stakes race at Kentucky Downs, where I think he bounced and still nearly won. Cutting back in distance should help, and if the same horse that won the Tyro by nearly eight lengths shows up here, he’s got a big chance at a square price.

RACE #7: My first strong play-against comes in the Juvenile Fillies, as I’m against #10 CHOCOLATE GELATO. I don’t think we can judge anything fairly when it comes to the prep races at Aqueduct, which were contested in boggy conditions that may never be replicated again. The post position is tough, this field is imposing, and I simply prefer others.

#7 CHOP CHOP is the wise-guy horse, and she makes a ton of sense. There should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for her late kick, and a step forward from her hard-luck second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades would make her tough. I don’t think it’s as simple as relying on just her, though.

#2 YOU’RE MY GIRL was second in the Frizette, and her debut was sensational. She has the speed to make the rail draw an asset, but I also don’t think she necessarily needs the lead. In addition, I’ll give #11 AMERICAN ROCKETTE another shot. She lost all chance at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway, but made up a metric ton of ground to finish fourth. Again, I see the Frizette as a throw-out, and with the lively pace we’ll likely get here, she hits me as one that could step up.

Finally, I’ll give you a bonkers longshot that could clunk up for a share. #1 VEGAS MAGIC was 3-for-3 going into the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, where she likely bounced off of a solid score in the Grade 2 Sorrento. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be a problem, and we know she can close. Can the winner of the Alameda County Fair’s flagship 2-year-old race, the Everett Nevin, win this one? Probably not, but if you’re playing tri’s and super’s, I wouldn’t leave her out.

RACE #8: As you may have seen in the shows and podcasts I’ve done, the Juvenile Fillies Turf houses one of my biggest plays of the entire weekend. Remember what I said about there being no value in Aqueduct preps? That applies here in a big way.

#6 BE YOUR BEST had no shot in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, where the top two ran in place from start to finish. Toss that race, and you’re left with a 2-year-old filly that won a pair of starts at Saratoga by a total of seven lengths. She saved no ground in her debut and won anyway, defeating #4 FREE LOOK in the process. She then crushed an overmatched group in the P.G. Johnson, and in both instances, she rallied into paces that were pretty soft.

I think there’s plenty of early speed in here, and several of the likely pace-setters have drawn terrible outside posts. This opens the door for Be Your Best to do what she wants and come running late. Should she do so and get the money, she’ll likely be a square price. She’s a very heavy play for me on top.

If you want to go deeper, I’m most intrigued by #5 PLEASANT PASSAGE, who exits back-to-back bullet drills, and #11 G LAURIE, who had a nightmare trip in the Grade 1 Natalma and gets a massive rider change to William Buick. However, Be Your Best will be a single on most of my tickets, and if she wins, Friday will likely be a fantastic day for me regardless of anything else that happens.

RACE #9: Single #3 CAVE ROCK in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and move on.

RACE #10: For reasons that don’t make much sense to me, we finish with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and let’s hope this year’s renewal is less eventful than the 2021 running.

#4 SILVER KNOTT and #8 I’M VERY BUSY are logical top two choices, and they’ll both be on my tickets. However, I also really like #5 BATTLE OF NORMANDY, and for many of the same reasons I like Be Your Best two races earlier.

Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy ran well twice at Saratoga while closing in paceless races. Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy never had a chance in a prep over a boggy turf course at Aqueduct. Like Be Your Best, Battle of Normandy figures to finally get some speed to chase, and will do so at an overlaid price.

In addition to all of that, the rider switch to Jose Lezcano cannot be ignored. Kendrick Carmouche is a fine jockey, but Lezcano has been one of the top turf riders on the New York circuit for years. This is a significant upgrade for a horse that should have every reason to fire a big shot on a big stage.

If you want to go even deeper, #1 VICTORIA ROAD and #2 PACKS A WAHLOP are my “B horses.” However, the first three will take most of my action, and if Battle of Normandy wins, it’ll likely put plenty of cash in my account heading into Saturday’s program.

WEEKLY DIGEST: Woodbine and NFL Week 2

We’re back for a second go-around, and this week’s horse racing action takes me to Woodbine. A track I was fortunate enough to go to back in June, Saturday’s card features three Grade 1 races and a bunch of full fields elsewhere on the program. As a reminder, Woodbine’s wagering menu includes multi-race wagers at 20-cent minimums, rather than 50, which allows folks to go a bit deeper.

Meanwhile, Week 2 of the NFL is already underway. From an optics standpoint, there aren’t a lot of eye-catching matchups on Sunday’s slate. However, a few spreads hit me as extremely bettable.

Let’s dive in!

HORSE RACING: SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 17TH

Woodbine, Race 6: A field of 12 2-year-olds will go two turns. #10 STATE OF MIND is the 3-1 morning line favorite, and I don’t think she’s totally illogical. However, the far outside post is a problem, and 3-1 just hits me as too short a price.

I much prefer fellow second-time starter #5 BIJOU BABY. She debuted going six furlongs, and given that she’s a daughter of turf stayer Point of Entry, chances are that isn’t what she wants to do. Still, she made up a lot of ground while closing into a pretty slow pace. I’m expecting significant improvement given the experience and the added distance.

If you want to go even deeper, #3 OUR LIBERTY BELLE isn’t without a shot at a big price. She hasn’t run well in two turf starts, but her works over the synthetic course are pretty sharp and she adds blinkers in her first two-turn outing. Bijou Baby is my top pick, but I’ll have this one on a few tickets, too.

Woodbine, Race 9: This is the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and the headliner here is #5 MODERN GAMES. The last time he shipped overseas was for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Things went great for him, as he won, but not for those who bet on him, as he was declared a non-starter following a head-scratching series of events.

A repeat of his runner-up finish in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes would give Modern Games a big chance, but the likely price seems too short. I prefer two others.

My top pick is #2 IVAR. He’s clearly had his issues, judging by the layoff lines, but when he’s right, he’s a handful. He’s finished up close in back-to-back editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and he should get plenty of pace to run at in this spot.

I’ll also pose a question: Is Modern Games that much better than fellow European runner #4 FINEST SOUND? Their Timeform ratings are pretty similar, and the latter runner will be at least five times the price. Jockey Andrea Atzeni has had success over this turf course in the past, and I think this one’s live.

Woodbine, Race 10: Simply put, I want no part of any runner coming out of the Catch A Glimpse. I’m simply not impressed by the race and very much prefer a new face in the Grade 1 Natalma.

#3 G LAURIE was very impressive in winning her debut by six lengths. Graham Motion’s runners aren’t always fully cranked at first asking, but she drew away powerfully, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win.

I know the speed figures weren’t particularly kind to that race, but I’m banking on there being far more in the tank. Add in that I’m just not crazy about this field in general, and I think G Laurie represents a very attractive betting proposition.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE: WEEK 2

WEEK 1 RECORD: 1-2

Bucs -2.5 over Saints: This spread has come down over the past few days as a result of some injury-related uncertainty on the Tampa Bay offense. However, while I’ll admit the injury report is unsettling, I think this is a “buy low” opportunity.

Tampa Bay’s defense swarmed the Cowboys last Sunday night. Even before Dak Prescott left the game, Dallas couldn’t get anything going the entire game. Tom Brady may not have all of his weapons on Sunday, but I don’t think he needs them. I’ll take the Bucs in a slow-paced game where their defense gets a chance to shine.

Panthers/Giants OVER 43.5: I’m not exactly bullish about offenses led by Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones, but both of these teams face significantly weaker defenses than the ones they lined up against in Week 1. Saquon Barkley looked healthy in Big Blue’s stunning win over Tennessee, and Mayfield was at least able to engineer a few good drives against a solid Cleveland defense.

43.5 just seems a bit low to me. It’s possible this becomes a game of attrition and I look pretty silly, but I’ll gamble that each offense appreciates a bit of class relief, to steal a horse racing term. 27-17 is a winner, and that seems likely enough for me to take a shot.

Bears +10 over Packers: I watched all of the Bears’ season opener last weekend. It was ugly. Soldier Field’s turf was a mess, and for the first half, Chicago’s offense was, too. However, they did at least rally to win, and the Bears then sat back and watched the Vikings decimate Gang Green.

Mind you, I’m not saying Chicago is a likely winner. I think Green Bay is significantly sharper in the second week of the season. However, there are question marks here, especially with the Packers’ wide receiver corps. I think it’s likely Green Bay wins, but double-digits just seems like too big a spread.

Vikings +2.5 over Eagles: The second of two games on Monday comes to us from Philadelphia. The Eagles won their lid-lifter, but they survived some anxious moments against a Detroit Lions team that still has some work to do.

I’m not sold on any NFC East team. The Eagles may be the best of the bunch, but I’m eager to take the points with a Vikings team that seems to boast a higher-powered offense, even in a road game. The money line (Minnesota is between +115 and +125 as of this writing) may be worth a small shot, too.

WEEKLY DIGEST: Kentucky Downs and NFL Week 1

I dug that tweet back up and pinned it to my Twitter page because, for the next nine months, I go from “younger guy who knows Saratoga” to “younger guy a surprising amount of people in horse racing wish would go away.” No such luck.

I’ll be putting together weekly content focused on horse racing and the NFL. Perhaps I’ll also throw in some college football plays as the season rolls on. If there’s something you want to see in this space, let me know. I’m an easy guy to contact, and I want to do what I can to appeal to an audience that (I hope!) enjoyed my stuff for most of the summer.

This weekend’s horse racing action takes me to Kentucky Downs for a power-packed Saturday card. Meanwhile, it’s Week 1 in the NFL, and I’ve got some strong opinions there, too. Let’s dive in!

HORSE RACING: SATURDAY, SEPT. 10

Kentucky Downs, Race 4: One of my bigger plays of the day comes in this maiden race for fillies and mares. I’m very much against #7 HERINGTON ROCKET at her likely price. Perhaps she’s good enough to win, but she’s had chances in each of her last two outings in New York against suspect groups. Anything close to the 5/2 morning line hits me as an underlay.

I much prefer #3 HEDY LAMARR, who gets back to turf and has done her best running on that surface. As a 2-year-old last year, she chased Consumer Spending twice, ran second at Aqueduct, and then went to the sidelines for five months after a lackluster performance at Gulfstream. However, her comeback race at Churchill Downs was quite good, and a similar type of effort gives her a big chance here. 6-1 seems like a very fair price, and I’ll happily take it come post time.

Kentucky Downs, Race 7: This is the Grade 2 FanDuel Turf Sprint, and it’s drawn a field that includes #12 ARREST ME RED, one of the top horses in this division. His best race absolutely wins this, but the 9/5 morning line price seems short given the far outside post and the fact that he won’t be alone up front.

I’ll take a swing with #7 GREGORIAN CHANT. The 10-1 shot makes his local debut, but has run very well coming down the hill at Santa Anita. Form from that course often translates well to this one, and his form looks far better if you toss his two runs in the Grade 1 Jaipur the last two years. He probably just doesn’t like Belmont Park, and if he channels the races he’s run elsewhere, I think he’s got more than a puncher’s chance at springing an upset.

Kentucky Downs, Race 11: The Grade 3 Mint Ladies Sprint houses my last spot play, and it’s not #10 CAMPANELLE. I respect her talent, to be sure, but she’s crossed the wire first just once in the last two years.

I think the early pace will be pretty hot, and with that in mind, I want #6 TOBYS HEART, who was very impressive in victory here last year. She wants to sit back and make one big late run, and that running style should mesh well with the race shape. Add in that she’s shown an affinity for this course, one several of her rivals will be running over for the first time, and I think there’s a lot to like.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE: WEEK 1

Colts -7 over Texans: This line opened with Indianapolis giving 8 1/2 points. It’s down to seven, and I cannot understand why. The Texans have significant issues at quarterback, and while rookie running back Dameon Pierce has significant steam, make no mistake about one thing: This is not a good football team.

The Colts, meanwhile, have won 20 games the last two years and have a legitimate chance to win the AFC South. I wouldn’t have been surprised if this was a double-digit spread. Seeing a number of just seven means I have to endorse Indianapolis in this spot.

Ravens -7 over Jets: In a similar vein, the New York Jets…stink. This is especially true of this version of Gang Green, which boasts a depleted offensive line and a backup quarterback.

I’m not the biggest believer in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson will need to rely on all of his skills with a roster lacking depth at the skill positions around him. However, the Ravens should be up to the task against a banged-up Jets team, and it’s another instance where the spread just seems too low.

Chargers/Raiders OVER 52: This should be a lot of fun to watch. Both teams have explosive offenses that can put up points in a hurry. Both teams also have secondaries with lots of question marks. I’m expecting a fair amount of big plays from both sides, and I’ll happily sit back and root for as many points as each team can muster.