SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/18/19)

BANKROLL

By the time you read this, The WAVE, a conference my full-time employer puts on, will have ended. As those of you with event experience can attest, putting on a multiple-day conference is no easy feat. In fact, rather than sending stuff a day in advance, I’ve been so wiped that I’ve had to send picks, analysis, and bankroll plays a morning late.

As I sort of said on Twitter, when my time is done, the phrase, “he wrote 1,500 words about Saratoga, went 6-for-10, worked 16 hours at a conference, and danced horribly at a party in front of hundreds of people,” almost certainly won’t make the first few paragraphs of the obituary. However, I feel as though it should be in there somewhere.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll have action right away. #1 BLESSED HALO won’t be a big price in the opener, but I’ll look to extract some value by playing him in $5 exactas above and below longshots #2 FULLY LOADED and #7 BETTOR BANK ON IT. Additionally, I’ll play $5 doubles that single Blessed Halo and use #3 IVY’S COLLEGE FUND and #6 CLAIRVOYANT LADY in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Blue Prize, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Bettor Bank On It, Race 1

R1

Blessed Halo
Bettor Bank On It
Fully Loaded

#1 BLESSED HALO: Hasn’t won in a while, but comes back to turf in his first start for new trainer Brad Cox, who does very well with new acquisitions. He’s run fairly well against better company in turf sprints; #7 BETTOR BANK ON IT: Gets some class relief after back-to-back starts in stakes company. The cutback in distance should help him, and a repeat of his three-back win at Belmont may be enough to get him a big piece of this; #2 FULLY LOADED: Showed some zip in a pair of stakes races earlier in the meet and takes a big drop in class. He hasn’t won in a while, but the shallower waters could wake him up.

R2

Ivy’s College Fund
Clairvoyant Lady
Riot Worthy

#3 IVY’S COLLEGE FUND: Goes out in search of her fourth consecutive win in her first start off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. She’s a flexible runner with tactical speed, and she’ll likely be favored; #6 CLAIRVOYANT LADY: Drops back into the claiming ranks after a failed experiment against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. She’s run well at similar levels in the past; #7 RIOT WORTHY: May be rounding back into form. Her second-place finish earlier in the meet was fine, and this will be her third start off of a long layoff.

R3

Sharing
Americano Girl
In Good Spirits

#7 SHARING: Rallied to be beaten just a neck earlier in the meet and stretches out in distance for a barn whose horses improve with experience. Her pedigree says she’ll love this trip; #1 AMERICANO GIRL: Debuts for Chad brown and has every right to be a runner. She hammered for $700,000 last September at Keeneland and has a steady work tab; #4 IN GOOD SPIRITS: Fetched $200,000 at auction last summer and has a strong turf pedigree. This barn can win with first-time starters, and she may be a square price.

R4

Coffee Crush
Madita
East View

#6 COFFEE CRUSH: Comes back to turf after trying stakes foes on dirt. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s shown speed against far better horses and could appreciate the class relief; #4 MADITA: Makes her American debut after a solid stint in Europe. She placed in three German stakes earlier this year and gets Lasix for the first time; #8 EAST MOON: Was a solid second against similar foes at Churchill last time out. This barn has been firing on all cylinders this meet, and her flexibility and tactical speed should ensure a good trip.

R5

Chaysenbryn
Shadilee
Wedontbelieveher

#8 CHAYSENBRYN: Debuts for a barn that can win with firsters at this level and has worked fairly well. She draws a cushy outside post and attracts Jose Ortiz for her unveiling; #5 SHADILEE: Is bred to be a runner and debuts for Todd Pletcher. However, her pedigree says she wants turf, so this hits me as a possible attempt at a dump; #2 WEDONTBELIEVEHER: Was a close-up second in her debut earlier this meet and was claimed out of that race by an aggressive outfit. This spot appears tougher, but her experience edge over most of these could make her a factor.

R6

Finite
Mrs. Danvers
Abilene Trail

#4 FINITE: Edged her primary rival in her debut earlier this meet and has every right to improve at second asking. She showed some early speed that day and shouldn’t be bothered by the added sixteenth; #6 MRS. DANVERS: Didn’t have a bad debut, and her trainer is one whose horses tend to need a little time. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because her pedigree says she wants to go even longer; #7 ABILENE TRAIL: Debuts a year after selling for $400,000 and boasts a very solid local work tab. Like my second selection, though, she may want to go even longer given her breeding.

R7

Still Krz (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Mission Command

#4 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Gets one more shot after misfiring earlier this meet. He’s run very well at this route in the past, and this is the weakest group he’s seen in quite some time; #1 MISSION COMMAND: Was left with too much to do late last time out, but still rallied for fourth. His win two back at this level was good, and he should be going the right direction when the real running starts; #5 FEAR: May not have liked the yielding turf last time out, and that was his first race off a brief freshening. He could certainly improve with drier conditions and the class relief he’ll get in this spot.

R8

Righteous Ruby (MTO)
Connectivity
Hit a Provisional

#1 CONNECTIVITY: Romped when dropped in for a tag last time out and makes her first start for Linda Rice, whose track record with new acquisitions is unimpeachable. Her prior connections ran her in a pair of stakes races, so she may still have untapped potential; #10 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Was a tough-luck second in her first start off the bench earlier this meet. She’ll need to work out a trip from a tough post, but further improvement would make her a major player; #3 KEOTA: Comes back to the turf after struggling in a race rained off the grass. She may, however, be best around one turn, as her two-turn efforts look a bit weaker than her races downstate.

R9

Blue Prize
Pacific Wind
Tweeting

#7 BLUE PRIZE: Has been a familiar face in some very strong races in her division and gets significant class relief. She’s picked up checks in all three of her races this year, which were won by top-class distaffers Elate and She’s a Julie; #1 PACIFIC WIND: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but is another that could find the winner’s circle given the drop out of graded stakes competition. She’s a Grade 2 winner that could sit an ideal stalking trip; #3 TWEETING: Ships up from Monmouth Park for a barn that must be respected. She could sit just off a solid pace and get first run going around the far turn.

R10

Take Charge Tina
Moyne Spun
O’Malley

#5 TAKE CHARGE TINA: Is one of many in here that hasn’t won in a while, but her two races for this barn against similar competition have been improved efforts. She led late last time out in her turf debut in what seemed like a strong race for the level; #9 MOYNE SPUN: Had an eventful journey last time out against allowance foes, and it’s telling that Luis Saez opts to ride back. A repeat of her two-back win at Belmont would make her a factor; #11 O’MALLEY: Must find a way to negotiate a trip, but this barn can win with new acquisitions and she was fourth in a stakes race at this route last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/17/19)

BANKROLL

Earlier this week, news broke that multiple Grade 1 winner Maximum Security would not ship to Saratoga for next weekend’s Travers Stakes. It’s the latest blow to a race that was already lacking in star power. In addition to the lack of Maximum Security (arguably the best 3-year-old male in training right now), it will not have a single winner of a Triple Crown race in the field, which will now more closely resemble that of a Grade 2 than a Grade 1.

I have a vote for the Eclipse Awards, and those who follow me know I am not afraid to abstain from a category if I feel no horse in a division deserves a championship. We’ve got several months left until I cast my ballot, but this division (which never gave off great vibes to begin with) continues to trend further down with each passing month.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Four, which kicks off in the second race and features both nice field sizes and very few heavy favorites. My 50-cent ticket looks like this: ALL with 5,7,10 with 1,4 with 2,7.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

– – – – –

BEST BET: Sayyaaf, Race 6
LONGSHOT: Blue Gem, Race 4

R1

Brown entry
Anaconda
King’s Honor

#1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Debuts for Chad Brown and has some solid works in her tab. She fetched $80,000 at auction and is bred to love turf, as her 351 turf Tomlinson shows; #3 ANACONDA: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Brown and is bred to love this two-turn route of ground. It’s tough to debut at this distance, but she may be good enough to overcome it; #6 KING’S HONOR: Has a strong European pedigree and attracts Javier Castellano for his unveiling. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because this barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going.

R2

Miss Imperial
Carrizo
Slimey

#1 MISS IMPERIAL: Drops out of four straight stakes races, all of which she picked up checks in, and figures to show speed from the rail. Based on her back class, she certainly looks like the one to beat; #6 CARRIZO: Was claimed after romping against weaker foes and goes out for triple the tag here. The outside draw helps, and Carmouche rides back for the new barn; #2 SLIMEY: Makes her fourth start of the meet and has run well in her three prior events here. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and she should be rolling late.

R3

All About It
Embellisher
Hurricane Hill

#7 ALL ABOUT IT: Makes his first start since October, and it’s a bit jarring to see him in for a tag. He was fourth in a stakes race at Keeneland, and anything close to his 2-year-old form would likely thump these; #5 EMBELLISHER: Drops down in class after fading going a mile earlier in the meet. This barn has a strong record with similar droppers, and he may like the shorter distance; #10 HURRICANE HILL: Showed late interest when third at 37-1 in his unveiling. The post is awful, but he may have gotten a lot out of his debut.

R4

Blue Gem
Giant Boo Boo
Desert Lights

#1 BLUE GEM: Took a big step forward first off the claim, when he cruised home going seven furlongs earlier in the meet. This is a tougher group, but he could be trending upward at a bit of a price; #4 GIANT BOO BOO: Has shown speed against better and takes a big drop for a strong barn. He romped here last summer and should be on or near the lead early on; #3 DESERT LIGHTS: Runs pretty much the same race every time out. He was third against similar earlier in the meet and should be running well late.

R5

Devamani
Bird’s Eye View
Cape Angel

#2 DEVAMANI: Was second behind a Grade 1 winner earlier this meet and catches a weaker field in this spot. He hasn’t run a bad one yet this season, and this distance shouldn’t be a problem; #7 BIRD’S EYE VIEW: Hasn’t won in a while, but was third in the Grade 3 Oceanport at Monmouth last month. He’s flexible and can run well from pretty much anywhere in the pack; #3 CAPE ANGEL: Was third at this route against similar-level foes earlier in the meet. He’s won twice in three starts over this turf course and gets Luis Saez.

R6

Sayyaaf
Lonhtwist
I Can Do Anything

#8 SAYYAAF: Looked very good breaking his maiden earlier in the meet and tries winners for the first time. The full field may ensure a bettable price on a runner that hits me as strictly the one to beat; #1 LONHTWIST: Went too long last time out, so I have no problem drawing a line through that race. Before that, he ran well in a pair of turf sprints at Belmont, so he can’t be ignored; #5 I CAN DO ANYTHING: Cuts back in distance after hanging a bit when third going a mile at Churchill. His turf sprint effort two back was a winning one, and that day’s pilot is aboard here.

R7

Irish Mias
Candy Tycoon
Eagles Palace

#6 IRISH MIAS: Didn’t break well in his debut, but rallied to be second behind a good-looking winner. This barn’s horses often improve with experience, and blinkers coming on means he should be more engaged early; #4 CANDY TYCOON: Fetched $170,000 at auction and is bred to be a runner. His last two works have been excellent, and he debuts for a sharp trainer of first-time starters; #2 EAGLES PALACE: Looks best of the rest. He showed some late interest in his debut and has a pedigree that says he’ll move forward as he gets older.

R8

Morticia
Fire Key
Oleksandra

#3 MORTICIA: Was in tight most of the stretch run last time out and gets a new rider in this event. She’s as consistent as they come, and her usual race would make her a major player; #1 FIRE KEY: Seems to be in good form and likes this turf course. She was second last time out despite a bit of a wide trip, and she draws more favorably here; #5 OLEKSANDRA: Most recently ran third in a Grade 2 at Woodbine and should be running well late. She won two and three back at Belmont beneath Joel Rosario, who rides her once again here.

R9

Regal Glory
Blowout
Amandrea

#5 REGAL GLORY: Has four wins and two seconds in six career starts and seems like the one to beat. She overcame a slow pace in the three-horse Lake George to win, and she should get a better setup here; #4 BLOWOUT: Is Brown’s other major player here and seems like the likely pace-setter. Like her stablemate, she’s never finished outside the top two; #2 AMANDREA: Ships up from Ellis Park and will get a class test, but she ran well two and three back and represents capable connections. She could get a nice stalking trip and grab a piece of it at a big price.

R10

Point of Honor
Ulele
Dunbar Road

#7 POINT OF HONOR: Was just a length behind divisional leader Guarana in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and is bred up and down for the Alabama’s 10-furlong distance. With no Guarana in sight, she hits me as the most logical winner; #6 ULELE: Has tactical speed and could get a perfect trip on or near a reasonable pace. Sire Candy Ride won going a mile and a quarter, and she’ll likely be a juicy price; #1 DUNBAR ROAD: May go favored, but I have my doubts. She beat nothing in a weak renewal of the Grade 2 Mother Goose, and her lone defeat came in her only start to date going two turns. At her likely price, I’ll happily try to beat her.

R11

More Mischief
Sweet Meadow Mist
Moon Heist

#5 MORE MISCHIEF: Hasn’t run a bad race over a fast main track and makes her second start off a brief freshening. Her third-place finish at this level earlier in the meet was fine, and she may be the one they have to hold off late; #2 SWEET MEADOW MIST: Came flying late when fourth despite a wide journey in the same race my top pick exits. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #7 MOON HEIST: Held on to graduate at second asking and has since been transferred to a new barn. Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride, and further improvement at third asking isn’t out of the question.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/16/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $796.10

Programming note: As mentioned earlier this week, I’ll be occupied most of the day Friday and Saturday with The WAVE, a conference being put on by my full-time employer (Life Chiropractic College West). With that in mind, Saturday’s and Sunday’s bankroll section will be produced far in advance, which means the print versions will not have a total or a recap of Friday’s or Saturday’s action.

I’m going to make every effort to have this up on AndrewChampagne.com Friday night. However, due to the three-hour time difference and how busy I’ll be working what amounts to a 16-hour day, this won’t make it into The Pink Sheet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I was correct in thinking Dull Knife was a lousy favorite in the sixth, but neither of the longshots I attempted to score with hit the board. We dropped $24.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #5 MUCHO was nearly my best bet of the day. He returns to his favorite track for a barn having a strong Saratoga season. I’ll play $5 exactas using him above and below #3 COVE BLUE and #6 FUEL THE BERN, as well as $5 doubles singling him and using #2 CLOCKSTRIKESTWELVE and #3 ZABAVA in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Ratajkowski, Race 8
LONGSHOT: I’m Elmer J Fudd, Race 10

R1

Repole entry
Inside Info
Cold Hard Cash

#1 MO READY: Is out of a More Than Ready mare and has a stride that says she wants turf. She was a game second last time out despite not taking to a muddy track at all; #7 INSIDE INFO: Fetched $165,000 at auction (more than 20 times the stud fee of sire Mission Impazible) and has a very strong bottom-side pedigree. His dam is a half to several stakes winners, and this one’s worked well ahead of his unveiling; #8 COLD HARD CASH: Was third in his debut on dirt despite a slow start. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, and she’s bred to like the lawn.

R2

Shock Therapy
Walkoff
Johny’s Bobby

#3 SHOCK THERAPY: May be a bit of a price in here, but was a good third against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. He’s hit the board in his last five starts, a stretch that includes two wins; #5 WALKOFF: Exits a failed turf experiment and drops in class for powerhouse connections. He’s 2-for-2 around one turn and should be running well late; #7 JOHNY’S BOBBY: Defeated weaker foes last time out at Churchill and draws a cushy outside post. This barn has won multiple times at the meet and merits respect.

R3

Value Engineering
Bail Out
Overbold

#1 VALUE ENGINEERING: Improved last time out in his second career start, and that day’s second-place finisher has since come back to win. He’s bred to want the extra distance and looms large in this spot; #4 BAIL OUT: Has burned plenty of money lately but can’t be ignored. He’s finished second in four of his last five starts and may appreciate the cutback in distance; #7 OVERBOLD: Seems like the main speed in this race and could be able to dictate terms down the backstretch. He cuts back slightly in distance and could be a factor despite the closer-friendly turf course.

R4

Prairie Fire
Wailin Josie
Lookbothways

#8 PRAIRIE FIRE: Was bet a bit in her debut and has several strong recent works downstate. This barn has been firing on all cylinders of late, and she may not have to be much to beat this group; #7 WAILIN JOSIE: Seems like the main speed in here and drops in class for this event. Her first two dirt races weren’t bad, and she could get brave on the front end; #11 LOOKBOTHWAYS: Takes a gigantic drop in class and gets a solid post. She’s shown some flexibility in her running style and can run well from several different spots.

R5

Mucho
Fuel the Bern
Cove Blue

#5 MUCHO: Comes back to his favorite track, where he enjoyed a strong start to his career. He broke his maiden for fun before running second in the Grade 1 Hopeful, and he seems primed off a brief freshening; #6 FUEL THE BERN: Took a shot in a strong race for the level at Churchill, but has been rested since that effort. A repeat of his two-back victory would make him a contender; #3 COVE BLUE: Is a bit inconsistent, but could contend if he fires his best shot. His second-place finish last time out at Churchill was solid.

R6

Carlisle Belle (MTO)
Clockstrikestwelve
Zabava

#2 CLOCKSTRIKESTWELVE: Was left with too much to do well behind a slow pace last time out at Monmouth. Both of her wins have come at similar two-turn routes, and he should get a better setup here; #3 ZABAVA: Was impressive two back at Belmont and ran on well late to be fourth earlier this meet. Irad Ortiz, Jr., retains the mount for Mike Maker; #8 PSALMODY: Takes a big drop in class, but hasn’t won in a very long time. She’s a short price on the morning line, but while the drop could wake her up, I find her difficult to trust.

R7

Lunaire
Up the Ante
Maraud

#2 LUNAIRE: Is worth a long look at a bit of a price in a tough turf race. He loves this distance, won at it last time out, and has shown he can run well at Saratoga; #1 UP THE ANTE: Found Grade 2 waters a bit too deep last time out and gets class relief here. He was second in the Grade 3 Saranac here last summer and will likely show speed from his inside post; #5 MARAUD: Comes back to two turns for this race, one where he’ll run for a claiming tag. He was beaten a nose in a Grade 2 race here last year, and all four of his career wins have come at this distance.

R8

Ratajkowski
Behind the Couch
Paved With Gold

#5 RATAJKOWSKI: Did all the dirty work on the front end earlier this meet and was beaten less than a length by a horse that went on to earn a check in a stakes race at next asking. She’s taken steps forward in each start and figures to be tough to beat; #7 BEHIND THE COUCH: Was third in a stakes race two back and tries two turns here. She has the pedigree to embrace such a journey and may still be improving; #4 PAVED WITH GOLD: Adds blinkers after running third in the race my top pick exits. She has talent and may be forwardly-placed, but I have a hunch she may be better suited for turf than dirt.

R9

Another Miracle
Montauk Daddy
Frosted Rose

#3 ANOTHER MIRACLE: Chased a Grade 2 winner in his debut and won professionally at second asking. Turf is a question mark, but he has a solid 297 turf Tomlinson rating, and a repeat of his most recent effort could be enough; #6 MONTAUK DADDY: Led all the way in his first turf effort last month at Belmont. He adds Lasix for Linda Rice and may be the one they have to run down in the stretch; #5 FROSTED ROSE: Closed like a freight train against a restricted maiden field earlier this meet and jumps up into stakes company. It’s a class test, but Rosario staying aboard inspires some confidence.

R10

Chuckles (MTO)
I’m Elmer J Fudd
Awesome Adversary

#5 I’M ELMER J FUDD: Gets a reluctant nod in one of the most puzzling races I’ve handicapped this meet. He adds blinkers on the drop in class and should embrace two turns. Regardless of whether it’s wabbit season or duck season, he seems vewy vewy live; #3 AWESOME ADVERSARY: Has picked up plenty of minor awards, but remains winless in his 16-start career. He’s a must-use, but it’s tough to have profound confidence in a runner that’s had so many chances; #4 MR. VINCENT: Could take a step forward second off the layoff. He was a neck back of my second selection last time out, and that was his first start in nearly three months.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/15/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $820.10

If you haven’t read Teresa Genaro’s article from earlier this week on the stuff she’s had to deal with, take some time and seek it out. There’s been a lot of nonsense on social media this past week, and a lot of it’s been pretty difficult to digest. It got to where I actually had to put Twitter away for a while, which, as those who know me will attest, has probably never happened before.

I don’t agree with every word Teresa’s said or tweeted, but you don’t have to do that to see that some of the stuff lobbed in her direction has been absolutely vile. This isn’t a political matter, so don’t even go there. It’s a matter of human decency. When did it become so hard to engage in respectful discourse with others who have differing opinions? This baffles me, and I refuse to think I’m somehow less of a person for expecting others to conduct themselves as if they can’t hide behind a device connected to the Internet.

Let’s all be nice to each other, huh?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Aristocratic ran well, but got reeled in late after setting a very fast pace. We dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m taking a swing in the sixth race, where I like a pair of longshots on top. I’ll key #3 FALSE INFO and #4 MY AMANJENA on top of $2 exactas that use those two, #6 MO ZONE, #11 DULL KNIFE, and #12 SOUTHERN BRIGADE underneath. Additionally, I’ll use my top two in $2 doubles that start in the sixth and end with #1 ANDRETTA and #9 HOLLYWOOD CAT in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Amazing Audrey, Race 1
LONGSHOT: False Info, Race 6

R1

Amazing Audrey
Bareeqa
Frozen Hannah

#2 AMAZING AUDREY: Has finished in the top two in each of her last seven starts and looms large on the drop in class. Her lone start to date over this turf course was an emphatic win, and her best effort would likely crush these; #4 BAREEQA: Is eligible to improve in her second start off of a brief freshening. She likes Saratoga and completes a strong 1-2 punch for the Gargan barn; #1 FROZEN HANNAH: Cruised in the slop at Indiana Grand in a race that doubled as her first start of this outfit. She comes back to turf and ran several solid races on the lawn at Gulfstream this past spring.

R2

British Idiom
Talk You Out of It
Esther’s Fortune

#3 BRITISH IDIOM: Debuts off of a very strong five-furlong gate drill at Churchill. That’s not the only strong move in her work tab, and this barn knows how to win with first-time starters; #10 TALK YOU OUT OF IT: Is already making her fifth start in this race, and the outside draw is a plus. She was third in a stakes race two back, and this doesn’t seem like the strongest race for the level; #8 ESTHER’S FORTUNE: Has a very classy pedigree and flashed some talent in a July 15 drill over this track. When Jose Ortiz rides for this barn, his mounts are usually live.

R3

No Dozing
Plainsman
Tale of Silence

#3 NO DOZING: Has done his best running at this distance and comes in off a second-place finish in an ungraded stakes race at Delaware. That day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win, and this one is making his third start off the bench; #2 PLAINSMAN: Got very good late last year, when he reeled off three wins in a row (including a Grade 3 score). He hasn’t run since and makes his first start for a new barn, but he’s worked very well ahead of his 2019 debut; #4 TALE OF SILENCE: Has tried tough company this year, including the likes of Mitole and McKinzie in the Grade 1 Met Mile. The class drop should help, and there’s speed in here that could set things up for him.

R4

Mystic Lancelot
Relentless Dancer
Now Is

#4 MYSTIC LANCELOT: Hammered for $450,000 earlier this year and has trained well for trainer Todd Pletcher. John Velazquez hops aboard, and he seems very well-meant; #2 RELENTLESS DANCER: Sold for $85,000 earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and has reeled off four straight bullets ahead of his debut. This barn can win with first-time starters, and he may be a nice price; #12 NOW IS: Ran second in an ungraded stakes race last time out at Monmouth and is a threat if he draws in off the AE list. He has an experience edge over this group that could prove helpful.

R5

Sneakiness
Cobble Hill
Swick

#5 SNEAKINESS: Comes back to dirt after an unsuccessful try on turf. He’s been gelded and drops down in class, and his past few works have been strong ahead of this event; #11 COBBLE HILL: Hasn’t run since December, and the drop in class is a bit alarming, but he’s worked well and draws a cushy outside post. He’s another running as a first-time gelding; #7 SWICK: Completes a trifecta of class-droppers and comes in off of two events that seemed fairly strong. This group isn’t nearly as accomplished, so an improved effort could be in the cards.

R6

False Info
My Amanjena
Dull Knife

#3 FALSE INFO: Has been gelded and drops in class for this race. He ran several solid races downstate earlier this year, and his morning line odds hit me as a substantial overlay; #4 MY AMANJENA: Didn’t run well earlier in the meet against similar, but that was his first poor effort since being switched to the turf. I’m willing to give him another shot, especially at his likely price; #11 DULL KNIFE: Drops way down in class on the trip north from Monmouth, but I have my doubts. He’s winless since coming to North America, the post is lousy, and it’s tough for me to trust him at a short price.

R7

Saloon Girl (MTO)
Hollywood Cat
Bond entry

#9 HOLLYWOOD CAT: Came back running off the layoff and returns to the state-bred ranks in this event. Jason Servis tends to keep horses on the right track, and he hits me as the one to beat; #1 ANDRETTA: Put it all together last time out, when she graduated at this route despite a horrible post. She faces winners for the first time, but the light bulb may have come on; #2 ANDARTA: Has a win at this route and almost certainly needed her most recent outing. If she’s fitter for this event and can channel her 2018 form, she’s got a shot at a big price.

R8

Bonita Bianca
Holiday Disguise
Pauseforthecause

#2 BONITA BIANCA: Cuts back from a mile to a distance she’s proven to like. She won this race a season ago and could sit a perfect stalking trip off of a solid early pace; #1 HOLIDAY DISGUISE: Has won several stakes races at this level and is the likely favorite. She’ll likely get plenty of pace to run at, but the rail draw is a red flag given the traffic she may have to work through; #4 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE: Hasn’t won in a while, but does her best running at Saratoga and exits an experiment going further than she wants to run. This is her preferred trip over her preferred track, and she cannot be ignored.

R9

Nasty Affair (MTO)
Double Happiness
Kerry’s Ring

#7 DOUBLE HAPPINESS: Debuts for a strong barn and is bred to be a good one. She’s by More Than Ready, which means she should like turf, and her dam was a stakes-placed runner (one that has already thrown another stakes-placed runner named John’s Island); #8 KERRY’S RING: May be a heavy favorite off of two straight second-place finishes downstate. She’s logical, but she burned a lot of money last time out without an apparent excuse, so it wouldn’t stun me if she loses again here; #12 CRESCENT LADY: Was a close-up third after pressing fast fractions in her most recent start. The post is a killer, but she may be able to clear most of this field early on.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/14/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $850.10

Okay, folks, I need your help. I work for a chiropractic college, and later this week, I’ll be helping put on our annual conference. It’s going to be a lot of fun, but it’s also going to be a lot of work (we’re talking 12-16 hours a day later this week, so caffeine will likely be its own separate food group).

To make the bankroll section a bit easier to write later this week, and to provide some fresh content very few others are putting forth, I’m opening up the floor to you. Tweet me your comments and questions at @AndrewChampagne, or use the “contact” feature at AndrewChampagne.com. I read everything that comes in, and if you do this, you may see your name and submission up in lights later this week (I’m not cool enough for a Reddit “ask me anything,” so this will have to do).

I’ve long prided myself on putting forth content people actively want to read. This period is going to be as good as you make it, so let’s have some fun.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Sister Peacock ran a great race on the lead over a turf course that has not played kindly to speed. Unfortunately, she had to settle for third, and $24 worth of doubles went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race, where I think #4 ARISTOCRATIC could be very tough to catch on the drop in class. I’ll keep this really simple and plunk down $30 on him to win.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Kimari, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Dancingwthdaffodls, Race 10

R1

Snap Decision
Zanzi Win
Renown

#7 SNAP DECISION: Cruised home last time out at Monmouth and faces winners over fences for the first time. He showed a new dimension being on the lead that day, and that style could help him here; #1 ZANZI WIN: Gets Lasix in his American debut and has been running well of late in Europe. This barn has had a strong year to this point; #4 RENOWN: Lost his rider last time out but showed some talent in his prior three starts over fences. He’s run well on the flat here before and could sit a nice stalking trip.

R2

Beyond Gone
Dan the Man Can
More Thunder

#5 BEYOND GONE: Was beaten just a length in his debut earlier in the meet and is in line to take a big step forward. This barn’s horses often move way up at second asking, and Jose Ortiz hops aboard; #3 DAN THE MAN CAN: Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and adds Lasix in this spot. His debut outing was pretty good, and he should be prominent early; #2 MORE THUNDER: Has a few solid workouts ahead of his unveiling and has a right to be precocious given that he’s a son of Goldencents. It helps that Rosario has been enticed to ride.

R3

Aristocratic
Reason to Soar
Orpheus

#4 ARISTOCRATIC: Drops way down in class and seems like the lone early speed in this event. He’s tired in his last several starts, but these waters are far more shallow and he may not have to go too fast early on to make the lead; #3 REASON TO SOAR: Is another class-dropper, and this one comes in from Florida off of a significant layoff. He’s been running against much better, but he hasn’t been the same horse he was in 2018 in four starts this season; #6 ORPHEUS: Hasn’t won in a while but has run second twice at this meet. He’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace and should come running late.

R4

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Gosilently
Bad Boy

#7 GOSILENTLY: Makes his second start off the bench and figures to be the main speed. He should improve given the prior race, and it helps that he’s run well twice at this distance; #11 BAD GUY: Has run fairly well in all three of his recent turf starts and may very well be good enough to overcome the terrible post. Irad Ortiz, Jr., signs on to ride, and they should be rolling down the stretch; #5 HONORABLE HERO: Hasn’t won in a while but tried stakes company last time out. He’s better-spotted here and has tactical speed.

R5

Katama Moonlight
Stand for the Flag
My Bronx Tail

#2 KATAMA MOONLIGHT: Hasn’t run since December, but has worked lights-out for powerhouse connections ahead of her return to the races. If she runs to her drills, she could be tough to beat; #6 STAND FOR THE FLAG: Suffered a tough beat here last year in her lone start to date, and has since moved to the Jason Servis barn. This outfit has had lots of success at this meet and can win with horses off of long layoffs; #4 MY BRONX TAIL: Got caught late in her first start since July of 2018 last time out and will almost certainly make the lead here. The question is, does she want to go seven furlongs?

R6

Astoria Kitten
Devils Rendezvous
More Than Silver

#3 ASTORIA KITTEN: Debuts for a hot barn and may not have to be too much to beat these. She’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of a Distorted Humor mare, so she has every right to be a runner; #6 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS: Was a one-paced fifth in her debut on the main track, but she may have needed the race and is bred to like the turf. Her works downstate since that race have been sharp; #4 MORE THAN SILVER: Is bred up and down for turf, so her debut on the main track is easy for me to throw out. She could improve and grab a piece of this at a price.

R7

Kimari
Abscond
Champagne Humor

#5 KIMARI: Just missed in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and seems to tower over this group. Prior to the trip overseas, she romped by 15 lengths at Keeneland, and a similar effort would thump this bunch; #4 ABSCOND: Got her nose down in her debut at Ellis Park, and that day’s second-place finisher has since come back to win. This barn is quietly one of the best in the country with 2-year-olds; #6 CHAMPAGNE HUMOR: Isn’t just a hunch play, as she rallied to top several next-out winners in her unveiling at Gulfstream. The Florida trainer brings a Gulfstream-based rider up for this event, which is intriguing.

R8

Allured
Passcode
Violent Delights

#7 ALLURED: Hasn’t run since February, but has back form that would crush these and has been gelded since his last start. This is the weakest group he’s ever faced, and if he’s ready, he should win easily; #8 PASSCODE: Just missed here earlier in the meet and stretches out a bit in distance for new connections. He’s got plenty of speed and draws a solid outside post; #4 VIOLENT DELIGHTS: Comes back to dirt and drops back to the right level after a clunker against a strong starter allowance group on turf. He’s run well on dirt in the past and will likely be a square price.

R9

Turco Bravo (MTO)
Golden Spear
Total Tap

#11 GOLDEN SPEAR: Drops down in class and gets a tepid top selection in a wide-open turf race. The post is a big problem, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; #4 TOTAL TAP: Has hit the board in each of his last five starts and chased a next-out winner last time out at Monmouth. Castellano sees fit to ride, and that can’t be ignored; #10 SYCAMORE LANE: Has chased a solid horse for the level in each of his last two starts and may have caught a weaker field here. He’s won over this turf course before and has some tactical speed.

R10

Carrizo (MTO)
Dancingwthdaffodls
Questeq

#8 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS: Didn’t have a great trip earlier in the meet, but can close and attracts Jose Ortiz. Her race two back was pretty good, and she could come running late at a nice price; #9 QUESTEQ: Exits the same race as my top pick and gets a big rider switch to Javier Castellano. She hasn’t run in a while, but she’s another that can run well late; #1 A DIXIE TWISTER: Has won two in a row and takes on tougher competition here. She draws well; the question is, does she have enough speed to utilize the rail draw to her advantage?