horse racing | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/12/19)

Posted on July 10, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

This section did not make it into the Opening Day edition of The Pink Sheet due to a print error, so some of this will be a rehash. For those of you seeing this section for the first time, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet any way I wish from now through Labor Day. I’ll also be using this space to expound on relevant matters, so if you have a question, comment, or concern, tweet it to me at @AndrewChampagne.

Also, two reminders: All of my content (picks, analysis, and bankroll plays/blurbs) is available online at AndrewChampagne.com, and all plays in the bankroll section involving turf races assume they stay on the grass. If they get rained off the turf, all plays in those races are voided.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Gosilently got to the lead but tired badly to finish off the board. As such, we dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Four, which starts in the second race and ends with my best bet of the day. I’ll play it for a dollar, and the ticket reads as follows: 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 3,8,9 with 4. I’ll also play $4 doubles starting in the fourth using the horses in the last two legs of my Pick Four play (which ensures action in case we’re rained off the turf).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Lotta Ott, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Freudycatfever, Race 10

Oso Negro
Legion Storm
Derby Memories

#8 OSO NEGRO: Takes a giant drop in class for powerhouse connections after burning a fair amount of money in two starts against straight maidens. It’s tough not to see this as an alarming drop, but he boasts the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure by a clear margin; #2 LEGION STORM: Was a decent second in an off-the-turf event last time out. He was third going two turns (albeit on turf) earlier this year, and Saez returning to ride is a plus; #3 DERBY MEMORIES: Almost certainly needed his last start, which came off a layoff of nearly two years. The recent local workout indicates he’s ready to fire a bigger shot here.

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Worth a Shot
Jimmy Jazz

#2 WORTH A SHOT: Stretches out to two turns off a near-miss at Belmont, and his pedigree hints that two turns should not be an issue. He’s got plenty of early zip, which is always an asset on the inner turf course, and a step forward from the last-out effort would make him tough; #5 JIMMY JAZZ: Was beaten only a neck last time out despite a wide trip and a seven-pound weight gap. He beat the third-place finisher by three lengths that day, and he’s shown he can run well at this distance; #6 CRAZY LIFE: Ran pretty well when third in his first start since August. Several of that day’s rivals show up here, but this is the one that seems most eligible to improve off of that event. DIRT SELECTION: DADDY KNOWS.

Viva Forever (MTO)
Complicit
Ferdinanda

#3 COMPLICIT: Hasn’t run since October, but has fired every time out and won off of a similar-length layoff last year. There should be plenty of pace in here to set up for her late-running style; #5 FERDINANDA: Hasn’t finished worse than second in her last six starts and is another that will be running well late. She’s been working well downstate and was second in a similar spot here last summer; #4 DREAM PASSAGE: Has won two in a row over yielding going at Belmont and will almost certainly be involved early. She likely won’t be alone up front, though, and the two-turn trip is a question mark. DIRT SELECTIONS: VIVA FOREVER, BROMAN ENTRY, TANYA’S GEM.

Big Muddy
Lord Simba
Soul P Say

#9 BIG MUDDY: Gets a tepid nod in one of the toughest $12,500 claiming races you’ll ever see. He’s won four of his last seven starts, the most recent of which came last time out downstate, and this barn has been firing on all cylinders this year; #8 LORD SIMBA: Took a step forward last time out in his first start for trainer Eddie Kenneally, when he won for the first time since the 2017 Los Angeles at Santa Anita. It’s tough to imagine a return to his 2017 form, but he could be coming around a bit for a very capable barn; #3 SOUL P SAY: Drops more than 50% in claiming price off of his last race and merits plenty of respect off of his back form. Given the large purse, there’s a chance this isn’t a panicky drop, although it’s jarring to see a $32,000 claim come back for $12,500.

Lotta Ott
Good Shabbos
Apurate

#4 LOTTA OTT: Has turned heads in the mornings at Keeneland ahead of her unveiling. The gate work on June 26th jumps off the page, and this filly bred by former NYRA jockey Jose Espinoza sure looks like a runner; #2 GOOD SHABBOS: Has an experience edge on most of this group, having just missed last month at Monmouth. I’m not sure what she faced that day, but they ran pretty quickly that day, and this barn knows how to win with 2-year-olds; #1 APURATE: Draws the rail for the Pletcher/Velazquez duo and has a few solid drills over the training track. She’s logical, but the rail is a tough spot for a debuting runner to win from, and the pedigree screams turf, not dirt.

Repole entry (MTO)
Keep Quiet
Applicator

#7 KEEP QUIET: Has had a productive 2019 campaign to date and makes his first start for Steve Asmussen. He’s run well here in the past, and while this isn’t an easy spot, he strikes me as the one to beat; #12 APPLICATOR: Has won three of his last five and may well have been my top pick with a better post. As it stands now, he’ll have to overcome a very wide draw in his first start for Linda Rice, but he may just have the talent to do it; #11 HAY DAKOTA: Is another that didn’t have any luck at the draw, but he ran a big race to win at this level last time out at Churchill. Any speed duel would certainly work to this closer’s advantage. DIRT SELECTIONS: REPOLE ENTRY, HEAVY ROLLER, SUPER DUDE.

Filly Dilly
Saloon Girl (MTO)
Noble Jewel

#9 FILLY DILLY: Romped in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month at Belmont. Her pedigree says she wants grass, and any improvement in her second start would make her a formidable foe; #6 NOBLE JEWEL: Also makes her second start after springing an upset in a turf sprint downstate. That race didn’t have the best field, but she finished very quickly and Joel Rosario retains the mount; #1 SHORT POUR: Merits a look in the exotics at a price. She rallied to be beaten just two lengths in her 2019 debut, and I think she’s eligible to improve second off the bench. DIRT SELECTIONS: FILLY DILLY, SALOON GIRL, LEM ME HAVE IT.

Doups Point
Dreamzapper
Big Gemmy

#6 DOUPS POINT: Has six top-two finishes in seven lifetime starts and certainly seems like the one to beat. He was second despite a bad break last time out, and two turns shouldn’t be an issue; #2 DREAMZAPPER: Has taken a big leap forward as a 4-year-old, and has run three solid route races coming into this event. His tactical speed is a plus, and that could mean a perfect stalking trip; #3 BIG GEMMY: Has won two in a row for Linda Rice, albeit against weaker competition. I’m not crazy about him being entered for a tag, but he appears to be in good form and he did break his maiden over this surface back in 2017.

Voodoo Song
March to the Arch
Offering Plan

#7 VOODOO SONG: Gets my top pick in the Forbidden Apple as arguably Saratoga’s most notable “horse for course” since Fourstardave. He’s won five of six starts over this turf course, and he should be prominent early in a race that seems pretty light on early speed (outside of #1 GIDU); #5 MARCH TO THE ARCH: Rallied to win the Grade 2 Wise Dan last month at Churchill and seems to be in career-best form. His chances would improve significantly with a speed duel, although I think he may truly want a bit more ground; #4 OFFERING PLAN: Hasn’t finished out of the money in nearly two years, although many of his races have come against state-breds. He’s won twice over this turf course, and his best effort would make him a contender in this spot.

R10

Happy Sophia (MTO)
Linda’s Ballet
Freudycatfever

#6 LINDA’S BALLET: Gets back on turf and takes a big drop in class for a trainer who has had lots of success with similar stock. Repeats of her efforts two or three back would make her very tough to beat; #1 FREUDYCATFEVER: Missed the break in her debut against straight maidens and is certainly eligible to improve at second asking against a weaker group. If Noble Jewel (who won that June 7th event) runs well in the seventh, it bodes well for this one’s chances; #5 ABBY NORMAL: Has closed well in two of her prior turf tries, most recently earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure last month at Belmont. She should be moving well late at a fair price. DIRT SELECTIONS: HAPPY SOPHIA, SCARLET’S COMMAND, ABBY NORMAL.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/11/19, OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 10, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s time for another year of fun in the bankroll section! For those of you unfamiliar, I get a mythical $1,000 bankroll to bet however I wish between now and Labor Day, with all results tracked in this section. Last year, we were fortunate enough to turn a profit here, and I’m hoping for similar results this time around.

I’ll use this space for some fun stuff, too. Got something you want tackled? Tweet me at @AndrewChampagne, and your question/comment may very well wind up in print!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep my first play of the year simple. One of my favorite horses to play at Saratoga is a front-runner in an inner-turf race with very little other speed signed on. This applies in the fourth, as #5 GOSILENTLY could get a dream trip at a fair price. I’ll bet $10 on him to win and place, and as usual, all bets on turf races assume those events stay on the grass.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Giant Zinger, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Elektronic, Race 9

Tiz No Bluff
Real Dan
Curlin’s New Moon

#6 TIZ NO BLUFF: Is the lone runner in here with a win going two turns on dirt and exits an easy victory against weaker foes at Belmont. His tactical speed should be a plus given the added distance; #7 REAL DAN: Drops in for a tag after two failed efforts at Belmont, but it’s possible he may not have liked that track. He was 2-for-2 at Aqueduct, and a repeat of those efforts puts him in the mix; #8 CURLIN’S NEW MOON: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out at Belmont. It’s encouraging that Jose Ortiz gets back aboard, and he could sit a nice stalking trip.

Ahead of Plan (MTO)
Sayyaaf
Declined

#2 SAYYAAF: Has burned money in his last two starts, but this seems like a far weaker spot. The shortened trip should help as well, and he’ll likely be a popular multi-race exotics single if this stays on the grass; #12 DECLINED: Drew a terrible post, but was competitive in two starts on turf at Churchill Downs. He’s got some early zip, but he may need to use it; #4 HURRICANE JAKE: Adds Lasix and gets a better draw today than he did last time out. He hasn’t run terribly in his prior outings, and we may get a price given the smaller barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: AHEAD OF PLAN, OFF THE RECORD, UP AND ONWARD.

Growth Engine
Potomac
Walkoff

#6 GROWTH ENGINE: Has had some gate issues of late, but has still taken significant steps forward in each start to date. He’s shown he can win going two turns, and the worktab at Monmouth looks very sharp; #4 POTOMAC: Had every chance on the Belmont undercard when second as the favorite, but he’s run four strong races in a row and won for fun over this track last summer; #2 WALKOFF: Tries two turns for the first time and merits respect given the connections. He’s shown plenty of talent, but may need more pace than he figures to get in this spot.

Indigo Yankee (MTO)
Gosilently
Mr. Discretionary

#5 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in 15 of 16 lifetime turf starts and could sit an ideal trip on or near the lead through friendly fractions. The most recent workout hints that he’s ready to go off the bench, and if he gets an easy lead, look out; #3 MR. DISCRETIONARY: Gets a class test after beating weaker foes last time out at Monmouth. Jose Lezcano hops aboard after a tremendous meet at Belmont, and he’s shown an ability to make up ground late; #2 LOCAL HERO: Hasn’t won in a while, but ran very well against similar company at Churchill last month. He could be on the upswing after a trainer change earlier in the year. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDIGO YANKEE, AUTOSTRADE, WILDERNESS GATE.

Aubrey Tate
Funfetti
Love Me Tomorrow

#8 AUBREY TATE: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open maiden race. Sire Bayern is off to a fast start at stud, and dam D’wild Ride is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter that has already thrown three other winners; #9 FUNFETTI: Debuts for a barn that can get horses ready to run right away. Several of her works hint that she can run, and Jose Ortiz getting the call is encouraging; #2 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Has an experience edge on most of these and was an OK third in her debut. This barn merits respect, and perhaps she’s improved, but that race didn’t hit me as a strong one, so I’ll try to beat her.

Morgantown (MTO)
Pipes
Generazio entry

#9 PIPES: Comes back to turf in his first start for a new barn and ran well at this route last summer. I’m not crazy about the post, but it’s not as bad as it could be and late-running types can overcome it by saving ground early; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1A VETERANS BEACH, who won here on debut last August and cuts back in distance after a failed try against stakes goes. #1 MAGICAL TALE, though, could be a factor if he runs back to his two-back effort; #4 FLED: Aired by more than five lengths at Laurel last month in his turf debut. His connections had been trying to get him on the grass, and it’s possible this is what he’s wanted all along. DIRT SELECTIONS: MORGANTOWN, PIPES, GIANT BOO BOO.

Giant Zinger
Cartwheel (MTO)
Wegetsdamunnys

#4 GIANT ZINGER: Gets significant class relief after three straight tries against graded stakes competition. This is a far easier spot, and she showed she could win here a season ago; #10 WEGETSDAMONEYS: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but was fourth beaten just two lengths in a classy NY-bred stakes race in May. She’ll be running well late, and an early speed duel would certainly help her; #6 BAREEQA: Merits a look in the exotics at a big price. She’s shown she prefers two-turn routes of ground and has three wins and a third in five starts over this turf course. Perhaps she’s peaked, but the two-back win hints that there may be more in the tank. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARTWHEEL, MAIDEN BEAUTY, ELEGANT JEN.

Aurelia Garland
Kiss the Girl
Shippy

#8 AURELIA GARLAND: Won for fun in her debut at Belmont, where she went five furlongs in :57 and change. A repeat of that effort would give her a big shot in a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville; #9 KISS THE GIRL: Represents the formidable Pletcher/Velazquez tandem and can’t be ignored off a strong win in her debut. Her two works since that race were good, and she gets a cushy outside draw; #1 SHIPPY: Looked like a freak in her debut win at Laurel, after which she was sold and transferred to new trainer Doug O’Neill. If she’s ready, she probably wins, but the one work since her debut win isn’t ideal, nor is the rail draw. At her likely price, I’ll only be using her defensively.

Abyssinian
Sombeyay
Elektronic

#1 ABYSSINIAN: Has yet to run a bad race and most recently picked up a pair of checks in ungraded stakes on the Kentucky circuit. She faces the boys here, but she’s in strong form and could be tough if she fires her best shot; #10 SOMBEYAY: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. That pedigree (one resulting in an insanely-high 351 turf Tomlinson number) and his late-running style could be enough to overcome the outside post; #2 ELEKTRONIC: Was rated in a paceless race last time out and should get plenty of speed to run at here. His wins two and three back were sharp, and I think he outruns his morning line odds.

R10

Countenance (MTO)
Claddagh’s Run
Darling of the Spa

#4 CLADDAGH’S RUN: Stepped forward on the drop last time out with a strong late move for second and gets two turns here. There’s some speed signed on, and I think she’ll be moving the right way late in the game; #5 DARLING OF THE SPA: Has worked well ahead of her debut and merits respect for strong connections. It’s tough to win going long at first asking, but she may not have to be much to beat these; #9 TO A FRIEND: Drops in class after setting the pace in a turf marathon last time out. Blinkers come on in this spot, and she’s one of a few that figures to want control going by the stands the first time. DIRT SELECTIONS: COUNTENANCE, DARLING OF THE SPA, DOTTIE’S SPIRIT.

INTERLUDE: Saratoga, The State of Racing, and a Track that Revived Me

Posted on July 8, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

It feels incredibly weird to say a few things that I’m about to say, but here we are.

Firstly, Saratoga kicks off its 2019 season on Thursday.

Secondly, up until a few weeks ago, I…wasn’t overly excited about it.

That sounds blasphemous, but hear me out. I am upstate New York through and through despite living in California since late-2013. I am horse racing through and through despite my primary source of income not coming from the racing business for the first time in seven summers (and despite that nobody associated with the “I Am Horse Racing” videos would EVER want me associated with that campaign!). Saratoga ought to be right in my wheelhouse, and for several years, I’m proud to say it has been. You may have heard about the summer of 2017; if not, ask anyone on Twitter who’s sick and tired of hearing about it.

Having said that, though, this year felt really different as spring transitioned into summer. This hurts to say, but for many reasons, it was hard to be a racing fan for most of 2019. The Santa Anita situation reflected well on no one, with horses breaking down and track administrators blaming the media while simultaneously giving PETA a seat at the table. Credit where it’s due: Santa Anita became a safer place in the final weeks of its meet, but what happened from January to March is a sad chapter in the history of a venue that has hosted some of the best of what racing has to offer.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Derby disqualification played right into the hands of the “whoever’s louder wins” school of debate. Worst of all, racing proceeded to squander all momentum from that event in the weeks that followed without creating meaningful change that would’ve increased the interest of novice or casual fans. Racing had a chance to grab public interest, create new fans, and drive a marketing/PR campaign through the summer and fall months that everyone would’ve been proud of. Instead, the two principal players in the Derby controversy will not face each other until next year (if at all), a lawsuit involving the race figures to drag on for months, and NBC opted to run with video of a riderless horse during the Preakness, which created no handle and very little interest in the horses that actually finished the race. Everyone involved whiffed and whiffed hard, and there’s no other way to accurately sum it up.

I wasn’t about to quit the game or anything, though I know plenty of people (some in the industry) who have said their interest and betting activity has declined significantly from this point a year ago. That’s understandable, for a variety of different reasons. I’d planned to take a bit of a break from the sport for a while before fate intervened and gave my “racing fan” side a much-needed reboot.

Those who follow me closely know I moved from Los Angeles to Northern California in early-2018. In doing so, I’ve gotten to know the folks at the California Association of Racing Fairs pretty well. I co-hosted a few seminars last year with track announcer Chris Griffin, and I wound up agreeing to come out to Pleasanton for a few Saturdays during its meet. I did a lot of social media from there, with content ranging from picks and analysis to photos of everything from horses to fair food, and I also helped out with a new segment honoring veterans and their families (one of the coolest things I’ve ever been part of, and Chris deserves all the credit in the world for getting that off the ground).

There are some places that are just plain good for the soul, and Pleasanton is one of them. The people are incredible, everyone seems genuinely happy to be there, and the racing product was solid. The daily seminars were always insightful and entertaining, and I was incredibly proud to co-host one with my father on the final Saturday of the meet (he gave out the late Pick Four!). If you’ve never been to a fair track, go at least once. Northern California will have meets at Sacramento, Santa Rosa, Ferndale, and Fresno before the year is out, and I’m looking forward to heading to at least two of them, maybe three (unfortunately, they do NOT make it easy to get to Ferndale!).

Chris, Dennis Miller, and everyone on the racing side did a heck of a job bringing back my enthusiasm for the game. Horsemen like Allen Aldrich, Jonathan Wong, and Quinn Howey were unbelievably nice and welcoming to me, and plenty of the fans had a genuine interest in wanting to know more about the product. It’s what I needed, and other than one unfortunate meal and its even-more-unfortunate outcome, I wouldn’t have changed a thing about the experience.

Pleasanton’s in the books, and now, it’s on to Saratoga. My batteries are recharged, my spidey senses are tingling, and I’m ready to reclaim what’s rightfully mine. I lost three photos in the last two days of the 2018 meet, and as a result, Liam Durbin beat me by a single win in the pick box on the front page of The Pink Sheet. I can’t, and I won’t, let that happen again. Furthermore, I’m also going after The Saratoga Special’s John Shapazian, who reclaimed the “king of all media” handicapping crown with a genuinely awesome performance all meet long a season ago. That’ll be a tough mountain to climb, but I’ve got my gear and I don’t quit easy.

As a refresher, here’s all the content you can expect from me on a daily basis: Two days before each card, I’ll have picks and analysis up on AndrewChampagne.com. In addition, I’ll have a bankroll play for each day of racing, but this will not be inserted until the previous day’s wagering has concluded. We turned a profit in that section last year, and I’ll be delighted if we can do so again. Furthermore, as topics come to me, I’ll be producing weekly editions of “The Dark Day Files,” columns on any number of topics involving Saratoga and the sport at large. Got an idea for such a column? Reach out via the “contact” section here. I see every note that comes in, and I’ll gladly take any opportunity I can find to show the racing world I can still write a little bit (that “win an Eclipse Award” box on my bucket list has to get checked at some point!).

All of this will also be in The Pink Sheet every racing day (with the exception of “The Dark Day Files,” which is an online-only production). If you like what you see/read from me, or from anyone else associated with its production, support it by buying a print copy when you’re in town. I kid around a lot, and I can be very sarcastic, but I’m as serious as a heart attack when I tell you that local journalism needs your money and/or support a heck of a lot more than I do.

In addition, I’m proud to be back in the fold at Horse Racing Nation, where I wrote some really good stuff in 2014 before a political situation reared its ugly head. I’ll be putting forth daily tickets and analysis pertaining to the NYRA Pick Five, which will be widely available on all platforms. I’m grateful to Mark Midland, Jonathan Lintner, and the entire HRN team for welcoming me back, and hopefully, we can put some money in your pockets.

Finally, I’ll also be continuing with my DRF Bets Formulator Angle videos. Twice a week (usually on Thursday and Friday), I’ll take a deep dive and bring you trends and figures that will hopefully help you cash a ticket. I enjoy doing these videos, and there’s no better place to focus them than at the track where I developed an interest in the sport.

To those that have supported my work in the past: Thank you. There’s no better feeling than helping someone else pick a winner, and I’ve been blessed to be in more positions to do that than most people my age. I can’t promise you fancy hats, or social media strategies that appeal to crowds that wear fancy hats, but what I can promise you is intensive, hard-hitting content that reflects the work I put into each card. If I’m in a situation where my personality can come out to have a little fun, so much the better (speaking of which, you might hear about a trip east later this summer; stay tuned).

Let’s go make some money!

Alameda County Fair Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 6/15/19

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

I’ll be on-site for the first two Saturdays of the meet at the Alameda County Fair in Pleasanton, and I’m really excited about what’s ahead. I’ve gotten to know plenty of good people on the Northern California fair circuit, and it’s going to be a blast to be there doing the things I genuinely love to do.

I’ll be tweeting out videos and analysis during those cards, and I’ll also be assisting with a few other cool things the track is doing. Additionally, I’ll also be posting analysis of these Saturday cards here. I’m looking forward to the first Saturday card of fair season, and I think there are opportunities to score.

Enough talk; on with the show!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #1

R1: 4
R2: 1,2,5
R3: 2,4
R4: 2,4

12 Bets, $6

I’m starting off with an economical look at the early Pick Four, which features three different breeds across the sequence.

We kick things off with a mule race, and I’ve singled #4 FAST PATSY B. She loves Pleasanton, and while she hasn’t won since this meet last year, her best effort almost certainly beats these. I’m hoping the recent near-misses drive the price up a bit, especially since morning line favorite #1 DASHING JACK is just 1-for-14 over this surface.

Arabians take center stage in the second, and my top pick is the second-longest shot on the morning line. That’s #5 MURPHY MHF A, who adds Lasix in her first start on this surface. She’s been running at Delaware and Sam Houston against much better horses, and she took a step forward last time out. I’m using likely favorites #1 WMA FANTOM A and #2 AURUM REX A, but the bigger price is my key horse.

I’m two-deep in each of the last two legs. In the third, I’ll try to beat #3 BRILLIANT RICHIE, who hasn’t shown anything on dirt and may be beatable because of that. I prefer #2 THISONESFORJAMES, who won here last year, and #4 RED CLEM, who has won three of five starts since going to the barn of Steve Sherman.

Finally, the fourth race is a maiden claiming event, and I think the two likely favorites are going to be tough. #2 MIND TRICK has run well on dirt in the past, while #4 PAITASKA has shown plenty of early speed and could be formidable if he’s left alone on the front end.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: ALL
R7: 1,2
R8: 3
R9: 1,2,4,7

48 Bets, $24

Unlike the early sequence, I think the late sequence requires a deeper dive and deeper pockets. I’ve assembled a $24 ticket, and my single is a horse I’m really excited to bet.

The sixth is a very tough race to handicap. I can make cases for all six horses, many of whom haven’t run on dirt before and could easily just need a change in surface. Because of the short field (and because I’m not in love with the likely favorites), I have to buy the race, and in doing so, I’m hoping for a price to shake things up.

In the seventh, I’m focusing on the two inside horses. #1 GIMME SPACE may wind up being the lone closer in a race full of early speed, while #2 OUR MANEKI CAT has shown early zip and could take another step forward in his third career start. There isn’t much in the way of proven form signed on here, so I’ll settle for going two-deep and hoping that’s enough.

The eighth race is where I’ll take a stand, and I’m hoping to get the 4-1 morning line odds on #3 BIG BUZZ. His lone win came on dirt at Santa Anita, and while he’s bred to be a strong turf horse (he’s a full brother to Grade 3 winner Big Score, who has also placed in a Grade 1), there’s a chance he may have been a dirt horse all along. There’s plenty of pace signed on, and I really like him in this spot.

I’m going four-deep to finish things off. The finale is a maiden claimer, and I’m taking a stand against #5 LU CAT. He’s improved since going to Golden Gate, but his two dirt starts were far from impressive. I’ll try to beat him here, and if we do that, this ticket’s payoff potential increases significantly.

2019 Belmont Stakes: Full-Card Analysis, Selections, and Tickets

Posted on June 7, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Belmont Stakes Day, and the folks at NYRA have come up with one of the best days of racing on the planet. The eight Grade 1 races boast a bunch of strong wagering opportunities (especially later in the card), and the day is headlined by the third jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

I’ll get to that first, because I know that’s what a lot of people want to read about. #9 WAR OF WILL and #10 TACITUS will almost certainly be the two favorites in some order, and for good reason. War of Will’s lone losses on dirt have come because of troubled trips, while Tacitus didn’t disgrace himself when third in the Kentucky Derby and is bred to handle this 12-furlong distance.

A lot of people are picking chalky exactas, and I see why. With that in mind, though, there are two bigger prices I need to have on my tickets. #4 TAX was an also-ran in the Derby, but I’m throwing that race out completely. He drew a terrible post and didn’t get his preferred stalking trip over a wet track (which he’d never run on before). There’s much less early speed signed on here, and he could sit an ideal trip just off the pace. He’s bred to like this trip, being by Arch and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and I think he could bounce back in a big way.

I’ll also need to use #8 INTREPID HEART, and similar to Tax, I think you can draw a line through the last-out effort. Intrepid Heart didn’t break well in the Grade 2 Peter Pan and was never really in the race as a result. The blinkers go on, and I think he could be the one they’re chasing early. 12-furlong races like this are often won on the front end, and it wouldn’t surprise me if John Velazquez was able to dictate friendly terms going down the backstretch.

I’ll be using all four of those horses in some form or fashion, but what about the rest of the card? Well, I’ll be breaking down each race below, as well as offering several Pick Four tickets (there are three sequences, which start in the second, eighth, and 10th races) and a Grand Slam wager near the end.

Enough talk; let’s get on with the show!

RACE #1: We start off with a puzzling race, and given the six-horse field and how chalky the rest of the early Pick Five appears, many players will likely punch the “ALL” button. #5 PRINCIPLED and #6 POTOMAC strike me as the horses to beat, and I’ll be watching the board carefully. Potomac has run two big races in a row, but was claimed last time out by Carlos Martin. Martin may not be a household name, and he may only be hitting at about 10% on the meet, but he’s a capable horseman, and anything close to the last two efforts would make this one tough to beat.

RACE #2: It’s tough to trust many of the runners with lots of experience in this turf route, as they’ve had plenty of chances to graduate. Based on Beyer Speed Figures, #4 NO MANS LAND is the horse to beat, but his history of coming close and not getting the job done doesn’t inspire confidence.

I’m using him, but my top pick is actually #9 UNCLE ARTIE, who stretches out in distance and ran a decent race two back at Keeneland beneath Joel Rosario, who rides him again here. I’m also going to throw in 12-1 shot #8 THE MORMON MAULER, who likely needed his debut and could benefit from a big jockey switch to Luis Saez.

RACE #3: This is the Easy Goer, and the morning line man thinks this is a two-horse race between #4 OUTSHINE and #6 ALWAYSMINING. I prefer the former, who ran a very good second to the possible Belmont favorite two back and lost all chance at the start of the Wood Memorial. In addition to those two, I’m also throwing in #5 MAJID, who has won three in a row since going to the Rudy Rodriguez barn and seems like the main speed.

RACE #4: This is the Grade 1 Just A Game, and it’s the first of back-to-back races with short fields and a heavy favorite I just cannot get past. In this case, it’s #4 RUSHING FALL, a three-time Grade 1 winner and the likely lone speed in this race. I don’t see any other runner in here going with her to set up for the closers, and because of that, I think she wires the field for her eighth win in nine career starts.

RACE #5: It’s disappointing to see the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps only draw a field of five, especially given that the older mare division is quite strong. However, my best bet of the day is here, and it’s a horse that, as good as she is around two turns, has always hit me as even better around one.

#2 MIDNIGHT BISOU is even-money on the morning line, and anything above that would hit me as an overlay. She won the Mother Goose for fun here last year, and all indications are that she’s even better now. I think she’ll sit a perfect stalking trip in this short field, and such a journey would likely result in a fourth consecutive victory.

RACE #6: Now a Grade 1, the Jaipur has drawn some of the top turf sprinters in the country. This includes morning line favorite #8 WORLD OF TROUBLE, but while he merits lots of respect, he’s not my top pick. I don’t think he’ll be alone on the front end here, and that could set things up for likely second choice #6 DISCO PARTNER. He loves Belmont and likely needed his 2019 debut in the Shakertown, which could slightly inflate the price we get Saturday afternoon.

RACE #7: From a betting perspective, out of all the undercard races, I’m most excited about this one. This is the Grade 1 Acorn, and it features Kentucky Oaks winner #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS. I’m against her here, as I think it’s highly unlikely she gets gifted another perfect trip (as she did last time out).

#7 GUARANA is actually the morning line favorite, and while there’s a chance she’s good enough, this is only her second career start, and her lone race came over a sloppy, sealed Keeneland track. I want the second and third-place finishers from the Grade 2 Eight Belles, #4 BELL’S THE ONE and #8 QUEEN OF BEAS. Both are closers, and in a race full of speed, a pace meltdown seems likely. They’ll both be prices, and they’ll both be featured prominently on any multi-race exotics ticket I play.

RACE #8: Like the Jaipur, the Woody Stephens is now also a Grade 1, and I think Chad Brown holds a very powerful hand. #4 COMPLEXITY makes his 2019 debut after a long layoff, but he’s been working very well, and this seven-furlong distance should hit him right between the eyes. Meanwhile, stablemate #1 HONEST MISCHIEF would benefit from a fast pace, which seems very likely. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but he’s bred to be very good, and the last-out Beyer of 97 ties for the highest in this field.

RACE #9: Many would argue that the Grade 1 Met Mile is actually the best race on the Belmont Stakes Day program, and I can’t disagree. It features several of the top older horses in training, and I believe that, if one of the logical horses wins, that horse is in the driver’s seat for Horse of the Year honors at this point in the season.

#2 MCKINZIE has been pointed to this race for months. Bob Baffert could’ve shipped him to Dubai, but he kept him stateside, and when Baffert works backwards, he doesn’t lose often. This route should be perfect for him, and I think he’s definitely the horse to beat.

In multi-race exotics, I’ll also use #3 MITOLE and #7 FIRENZE FIRE. Mitole stretches out to a mile after successfully handling seven furlongs last month, while Firenze Fire looks like a world-beater at Belmont and certainly has home-course advantage. At any rate, this is a fascinating race, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.

RACE #10: The Grade 1 Manhattan is the traditional lead-up for the Belmont, and this year’s renewal features #8 BRICKS AND MORTAR, likely the best turf horse in the country. He’s won four in a row, including two Grade 1 races, and if you want to single him, it’s understandable.

I loved #9 EPICAL before he was announced as a scratch, and I’m more than a bit bitter about not getting the chance to throw him in in hopes of him getting loose on the lead. If you’re looking for an alternative to Bricks and Mortar, I’d use #3 ROBERT BRUCE, who was beaten just a length in this race last year despite a strange trip. When he’s right, he’s very good, and he may not have cared for the wet turf course he got last time out.

RACE #12: They carded two races after the Belmont, and the first of those is a tricky optional claimer going long on the grass. I’m using the two bookends, and I think the most likely winner may be a square price.

That’s #10 BIRD’S EYE VIEW, who likes this turf course and has a substantial amount of back class. He’s run up against plenty of stakes-quality opposition, and I think his tactical speed will allow him to sit a perfect trip. I’m also going to use #1 PRIORITIZE, who almost certainly needed his last start and ran third in last year’s Grade 2 Hill Prince at this route.

RACE #13: We finish with the Grade 2 Brooklyn at the marathon 12-furlong distance. Unlike the Belmont, I think there may be a bit of speed signed on here, so my top pick is #6 ROCKETRY, who has shown a rare ability to make up ground going this long. He got very good near the end of last year, and if he channels that form, I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late.

I’ll also use several of the other logicals, as #1 MARCONI, #2 CAMPAIGN, and #7 YOU’RE TO BLAME are all contenders in good form. This wound up a very intriguing betting race, and your guess is as good as mine with regard to which horse winds up favored.

MULTI-RACE EXOTIC TICKETS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 4,8,9
R3: 4,5,6
R4: 4
R5: 2

9 Bets, $4.50

Either play it for cheap action early in the card, or punch it a few times to increase the potential payoff. I’m not sure how much this’ll pay, but I’ve at least left some room to beat a favorite or two early to squeeze whatever value I can out of the sequence.

$1 Grand Slam: Race #7

R7: 2,4,7,8
R8: 1,4,9
R9: 2
R10: 8

12 Bets, $12

I enjoy playing the Grand Slam at NYRA tracks when the payoff leg features a very heavy favorite. If you keep a chalk or two out of the money along the way, it’s essentially an enhanced-odds win bet (provided you get multiple tickets going, which is essential). That’s what I’m going for here, and hopefully I can get some value out of Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4
R9: 2,3,7
R10: 3,8
R11: 4,8,9,10

48 Bets, $24

I like this sequence a lot. There are no singles in some big fields, and there’s room for some prices to shake things up. With how big the pool’s going to be, I had to take a swing here, and I’m happy with this $24 ticket that could pay stacks if Tax gets home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 3,8
R11: 4,8,9,10
R12: 1,10
R13: 1,2,6,7

64 Bets, $32

The last two races of the card may get lost in the shuffle, but they’re good betting races that don’t have clearly-defined favorites. This makes the final Pick Four of the day a very attractive sequence, one where I’ve got plenty of coverage for a reasonable amount of money.