horse racing

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 2018 Florida Derby Day, PLUS: A Disturbing Trend in Racing That Must End

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before we get into my analysis of Saturday’s Rainbow 6 and late Pick Four sequences at Gulfstream Park, I need to expound on something I’ve been witnessing more and more of as of late. It’s a plague on the sport we enjoy, and it needs to stop.

Earlier this week, the connections of Australian superstar Winx announced that the mare would not ship to Royal Ascot. All hell promptly broke loose on Twitter, with plenty of insult-lobbing from all corners of the world saying that Team Winx was ducking top-class competition.

Horse racing has a major problem, and this situation typifies it. We crave horses that turn into winning machines, ones that strut their stuff on a regular basis and leave no doubt about how good they are. However, when we get horses like that, we’re often very quick to tear them down.

I wrote at length about Wise Dan, who ran into this phenomenon when his connections opted to keep their turf buzzsaw on turf rather than try him on dirt. This is the same concept. Winx has mowed down all comers over the course of her 24-race win streak, including world-class horses like Highland Reel. Why can’t we simply appreciate her for what she’s doing and be glad that we’re seeing her do it?

In a bizarre twist, while some of us insist on this strange behavior, we also spend time building up horses that have lost. Zenyatta gained the most respect not for any of her victories, but in coming up short to Blame in her career finale. Many think Easy Goer was superior to Sunday Silence despite losing three out of four meetings with that rival. Heck, Bodemeister’s stud career was built not on his runaway win in the Arkansas Derby, but off of his LOSS in the Kentucky Derby.

To be fair, part of handicapping involves figuring out horses that can improve off of defeats, and ones coming off of wins that may be vulnerable. That’s part of the pursuit of value that every handicapper undertakes when dissecting a card. However, none of that has any bearing in assessing a horse’s accomplishments during that horse’s career.

Winx is great, and her bona fides are not lessened by her connections opting not to go to Royal Ascot. To those who hurled insults and think those connections owe anything to them beyond doing what they feel is best for their champion, shame on you. You’re pushing an ideology that results in no-win situations for the game, horses, and horsemen, one where champions somehow sully their reputations by not winning as authoritatively as fans think they should.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s take a look at Saturday’s Rainbow 6 sequence at Gulfstream. I’ll dissect the races involved, as well as offer a late Pick Four ticket that gives us a bit more coverage.

$0.20 Rainbow 6: Race #9

R9: 2,5,6,7,8
R10: 7
R11: 1,2,10
R12: 3,6,8,9,12
R13: 2,7,8
R14: 8

225 Bets, $45

If you’re going to play an economical ticket, I think you need at least two singles. I’ll take stands in the second and sixth legs, and hope that I’ve got enough coverage elsewhere.

The ninth is a maiden race going long on turf, and I wish I had the money to buy the race. I’m going five-deep, and while I’m using #7 ART COLLECTION (the 9/5 morning line favorite), I don’t think he’s any cinch, especially going to a cold barn. My top selection is actually #6 DAWOOD, who debuted going nine furlongs. That’s never an easy task, and rating well behind a slow pace certainly didn’t help. Dawood gets Luis Saez here, and he’s bred to be a good one. If he takes a step forward, he’s certainly good enough to win.

My first single comes in the 10th, an optional claiming event that’s drawn some classy horses. The one I really like is #7 READY FOR RYE, whose last race was too bad to be true. He’s shown plenty of ability, and if he’s back to his usual form, I think he’ll be tough to beat. He’s got enough tactical speed to sit close to the pace, and he may get first run turning for home beneath Jose Ortiz.

The third leg is the Grade 3 Honey Fox. #2 LULL and #10 ON LEAVE are both classy horses, but I also need to use #1 GLORY TO KITTEN, who has never lost over this turf course. She does take a step up in class, but I simply can’t throw a horse out that has never tasted defeat at Gulfstream.

The fourth leg is the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, and I’m taking the stance that this race sets up for a closer. My top pick (and not just because I used to work with a part-owner; hi, Drew!) is #9 PRINCESS WARRIOR, who prepped for this race with an OK effort in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride on turf. Her record looks much better if you draw a line through the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and I think she’ll come rolling late.

The 13th is the Grade 2 Pan American, and I’m three-deep. #8 SADLER’S JOY will be favored, and I’m using him, but I hesitate to single a deep closer in spots like these. I’m also using #2 BULLARDS ALLEY and #7 BIGGER PICTURE, and I’m surprised the latter is 6-1 on the morning line. He won the Grade 1 United Nations last year, and while he’s got a strong closing kick, it helps that he can also sit fairly close to the pace.

We finish things off with the Grade 1 Florida Derby, and I’ll hope to cap things off with a single. #8 AUDIBLE ran really well in taking the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and a repeat effort would mean another horse likely has to take a big step forward to beat him. I think he’ll be very tough in here, and hopefully, he can get this ticket home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race 11

R11: 1,2,3,10
R12: 3,5,6,8,9,12
R13: 2,3,7,8
R14: 8

96 Bets, $48

I’m still singling Audible to end this sequence, but I’ll add a few horses before that in hopes of getting to the payoff leg. I’ll throw in #3 STORMY VICTORIA in the 11th, #5 DAISY in the 12th, and #3 HI HAPPY in the 13th. If you’ve got the money to add these horses into the Rainbow 6, feel free. I wanted to keep the cost of that ticket down to a reasonable level, though, and this was the compromise I came up with.

Analyzing My 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

A few years ago, I received one of the biggest honors in horse racing when given a ballot for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. It’s a responsibility I don’t take lightly, especially in the wake of new induction protocols that could see waves of new honorees in the next few summers.

I’ve mailed my ballot back to Saratoga Springs, and it’ll be interesting to see vote totals when they get announced next month. I saw none of the 10 finalists as surefire inductees, and I wound up checking three names on my ballot. Below are my explanations, starting with the one I had the most conviction about.

1) BLIND LUCK

Far from a visually impressive equine specimen, Blind Luck began her career in a maiden claiming event at Calder. After her debut victory, she was privately purchased and moved to the care of Hall of Fame horseman Jerry Hollendorfer, for whom she would reel off 10 graded stakes victories, including six Grade 1 triumphs. She earned an Eclipse Award as 2010’s top 3-year-old filly, and she finished in the money in all but one of her 22 career starts.

Personal story: I was in attendance for the 2010 Alabama, and got to go into the paddock before the race thanks to a friend who had connections (one I now work with at DRF; hi, Craig!). I’ve been watching horse racing for most of my life, and I can safely say that I have NEVER seen a horse look worse before a race than Blind Luck did that day. She was washed out, showed positively no interest in being there, and looked nothing like a horse that had already taken down a pair of Grade 1 races that season.

Then, she went and did this.

2) HAVRE DE GRACE

Of course, we can’t talk about Blind Luck without mentioning her main rival, Havre de Grace, who’s also on the ballot. Unlike Blind Luck, who won Grade 1 races in three consecutive seasons, Havre de Grace is best known for one shining campaign that earned her Horse of the Year honors.

Yes, there are asterisks here. Her trophy came in 2011, a year where there was no standout older male. She did beat boys in that year’s Grade 1 Woodward, but with the exception of upper-tier stalwart Flat Out, there wasn’t much else in the race, and she was fourth behind Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic two starts later. Furthermore, her peak was fairly short compared to other Hall of Famers, and in an age where top horses race fewer and fewer times, longevity may very well matter more come voting season.

I understand the logic there, but I don’t necessarily agree with some of it. Unpopular opinion coming: If the Hall of Fame isn’t meant for a horse that had one sterling season, who wants to be the one to tell those at Stonestreet that Rachel Alexandra’s being kicked out? I voted for her, but if we’re going off of the “she didn’t beat much and her peak wasn’t long” angle, certainly it applies to Rachel, right? She beat nothing in her Woodward triumph, and with all due respect to Summer Bird, the crop of 3-year-old males she dusted multiple times was one of the worst of the past 15 years.

Maybe Havre de Grace came along at a time of transition for the handicap division, but her stirring rivalry with Blind Luck certainly helps, and her win over future Hall of Famer Royal Delta in the 2011 Beldame puts her over the top.

3) HEAVENLY PRIZE

I went back and forth on Heavenly Prize multiple times over the course of my deliberations. Admittedly, I wasn’t overly familiar with the distaff division of the early-1990’s, and the lack of a Breeders’ Cup victory doesn’t help her cause.

However, the more I looked, the more I became won over by this mare. She never finished out of the money in 18 career starts, and of her nine wins, eight were of the Grade 1 variety. She ran against the likes of Inside Information, Paseana, and Serena’s Song, all legitimate Hall of Famers, and she didn’t discredit herself in her lone start against males, when she ran third to the great Cigar in the 1996 Donn Handicap.

A Breeders’ Cup victory would’ve made her a much easier choice. She was third in the 1993 Juvenile Fillies (just her third career start) and second in the Distaff in both 1994 and 1995. The first Distaff lost stings, as it came by a neck to 47-1 shot One Dreamer, but the second one is understandable, as Inside Information turned in one of the most freakish performances in North American racing history. With billing like that, I HAVE to show it, right?

I wasn’t sold on Heavenly Prize when ballots went out. However, eight Grade 1 wins, in an era where top-class mares seemed to grow on trees, is one heck of a total, even if none of those victories came in the Breeders’ Cup. Ultimately, I felt she’d done enough to merit inclusion, so she was the final checkmark before I sealed the envelope and sent it back east.

– – – – –

As far as the others are concerned, there were no hard omissions for me. I’ve discussed Gio Ponti’s resume at length, and while he might get in given the new standards for induction (50.1%, no maximum number of honorees), I couldn’t bring myself to vote for him. None of the jockeys struck me as Hall of Fame-worthy, although Corey Nakatani could convince me with a few more strong years given his nine Breeders’ Cup victories, which matter more to me than Robby Albarado’s 5,000-plus wins.

As far as the trainers are concerned, Mark Casse will likely get in in a few years. I couldn’t vote for him this time around, though. It’s the NATIONAL Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, and while his Canadian accomplishments are astounding, I just don’t think he’s done quite enough since coming to the U.S. One or two more big horses, though, will probably sway my vote.

Think I messed up? Have a question about the way I did things? Drop me a line. I read everything that comes in through this site, and I’m happy to discuss this further.

The Big ‘Cap’s Big Problem

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

One of the most prestigious races in the country will be run this weekend. A list of the race’s winners over the years boasts Hall of Famers, champions, and some of the best horses of their respective eras, not to mention legendary owners, trainers, and jockeys.

Yes, the Santa Anita Handicap will be run Saturday in Arcadia. However, the Big ‘Cap isn’t quite so big anymore, in stature, prominence, or in the quality of horses it attracts.

The reasons for this abound, and perhaps the most reasonable one is the proximity of the race to the Dubai World Cup. Why run for the winner’s share of a $600,000 pot when you can run for the biggest piece of a $10 million pie? With the three-week gap between the two races, trainers of yesteryear may have openly tried to run in both. As we all know, though, they don’t make many horses physically capable of that anymore.

Gun Runner has already started his second career, covering mares at $70,000 a pop. West Coast, the best of a forgettable lot of 3-year-olds in 2017 but a 4-year-old that at least made Gun Runner work in the Pegasus, has his eye on Dubai, as does last year’s champion older dirt mare, Forever Unbridled. The winners of the 2017 Triple Crown races are still working their way back, as is champion 3-year-old filly Abel Tasman.

This paints a horrifyingly bleak picture of the older horse divisions, and the field for the 2018 Santa Anita Handicap reflects it. Past performances show a field of eight that could be whittled down to seven if Giant Expectations opts to instead run in the Roy H-less Grade 1 Triple Bend. This octet has combined for a total of three Grade 1 wins. Hoppertunity has won a pair, while Mubtaahij won a similarly watered-down renewal of the Awesome Again last fall.

There are plenty of nice horses in this race. Three-time Grade 2 winner Accelerate, Pegasus World Cup fourth-place finisher Fear the Cowboy, and millionaire Giant Expectations are thoroughbreds any owner or trainer would love to have. They’re honest, hard-trying equines…but, to this point, they’re not Grade 1 horses, and of the two in the field that have achieved that status, one has won once in his last seven starts (Hoppertunity), and the other (Mubtaahij) has one win since the spring of 2015.

In my estimation, the Big ‘Cap isn’t even the main event of Big ‘Cap Day. That honor falls to the San Felipe Stakes, a prep for the Santa Anita Derby that has drawn some of the top 3-year-olds in the country. Bolt d’Oro makes his seasonal debut there, and he’ll face the undefeated McKinzie, impressive San Vicente winner Kanthaka, and wire-to-wire Robert Lewis victor Lombo, among others, with a total of 85 Kentucky Derby points on the line. Now THAT is a race with some pizzazz to it, one where you could talk to a novice horse racing fan and explain why it’s important without sounding like a marketing executive obviously stretching the bounds of rationality and logic.

The Santa Anita Handicap? This year’s renewal is a step down from even the most recent runnings, which were far from star-studded but did have some appealing aspects to them. 2017 had Shaman Ghost, who put together a nice string of performances before being sidelined last summer with ailments that ultimately led to his retirement. Melatonin at least franked the form he showed in his 2016 upset when he added the Grade 1 Gold Cup, and Shared Belief dazzled us with one of his finest efforts when taking the 2015 version. Before that, Game On Dude won three Big ‘Caps in four years, including the 2014 running over Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man and reigning champion 3-year-old Will Take Charge (it’s worth noting that this was the final year where Meydan ran the Dubai World Cup on a synthetic surface).

Something has to be done to restore this great race’s glory. It cannot succeed going up against the Dubai World Cup in a world where the best horses MAY run six or seven times a year for the biggest purses available. Here’s how I’d do it.

1) Move the race to the second Saturday in May, and restore its purse to $1 million.

The current timing of the Santa Anita Handicap clearly does not work. It’s not attracting the best horses in the country, as they’re busy preparing for excursions to a desert halfway across the world. Before we do anything else, we need to move it, and May is the best spot.

If nothing else, this gives the Big ‘Cap a weekend all to itself between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. General interest in racing is at its peak at this point, and this also at least opens the door for horses returning from Dubai to consider running. Everything would need to go perfectly, but it’s at least a consideration, especially given further suggestions I have.

Also, before we go further, let’s treat the Big ‘Cap like it matters and give it the $1 million purse it deserves. If this means axing the Pimlico Special (normally run the next week on Preakness weekend in Maryland) to balance the budget and get more top-class runners in one spot, so be it. It sounds really cold (especially to at least one Maryland racing fan I know that’s probably reading this), but I’d rather kill a Grade 3 than a Grade 1, which is what we’re doing by doing nothing with the Santa Anita Handicap.

2) Move the Gold Cup to closing weekend.

Given the moving of the Big ‘Cap, the Gold Cup at Santa Anita also needs to be rescheduled. It was run on Memorial Day last year, and that’s too quick a turnaround.

If this gets moved to closing weekend, it provides six or seven weeks between the two 10-furlong races. Horses could easily run in both races, and this race provides an even more realistic target for those looking to return from Dubai. One could also attract horses exiting either the Met Mile or Brooklyn on Belmont Day, as that wouldn’t be an unreasonable turnaround for aggressive barns. Furthermore, it represents an ideal spot for a top-class mare to try the boys. It’d be four or five weeks after Santa Anita’s flagship spring-summer race for older distaffers, the Beholder Mile, and that spacing could be ideal.

3) Establish a series culminating in the Pacific Classic, and award bonuses to the most successful horses.

What we’ve done with these two maneuvers is establish a logical, three-race series for California’s top handicap horses. Here, we have three races, each six to eight weeks apart, all at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. It’s not anywhere close to as grueling as the Triple Crown, nor will it have the pop culture relevance if a horse wins the first two legs. However, there are ways to make this appeal to the masses in such a way that it could be a novel idea.

The simplest bonus would go to the connections of any horse that sweeps the series. My initial idea is $500,000, to be paid for by The Stronach Group (which owns Santa Anita) and Del Mar (which puts on the third leg). Furthermore, since Stronach is involved, let’s also throw in the right to buy a slot in the starting gate for the Pegasus World Cup at half-price (down from $1 million to $500,000). With the $500,000 cash bonus also in mind, this essentially turns the Pegasus into a freeroll for the owners and whatever breeder acquires the horse’s stallion rights. Money talks, and a free shot at the winner’s share of the Pegasus would be very attractive.

If no horse wins all three legs, we’d go to a scoring system. My proposal would be 10 points to the winners, with six points to the second-place horses, three points to the third-place horses, and one point to everyone else in each field (as a bone to entice barns into running their horses in all three legs, so as to keep the mathematical possibility of a win in the series alive). The winner of the series would be in line for a bonus, with the runners-up each getting smaller bonuses. For the sake of this conversation, let’s put the prizes at $100,000, $25,000, and $10,000. If you’ve got a hard-knocking horse in a year where one thoroughbred doesn’t take multiple legs of the series, two seconds and a third could easily get you some serious money, on top of the purse money your horse wins in those races.

Currently, the Big ‘Cap has little relevance to the national racing scene. It’s the byproduct of a previous era, and it’s my belief that, like they’ve done with several other staples of generations past, The Stronach Group needs to review the facts and do what it can to save a race that deserves so much better.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita (2/24/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Now that my move from SoCal to NorCal is mostly complete, I’ve got some time to put pen to paper on some betting strategies for Saturday’s racing action. Gulfstream has a mammoth, 13-race card with three Pick Four sequences, while Santa Anita’s program is headlined by the return of Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Stormy Liberal in the Grade 3 Daytona. Here’s how I’ll be playing!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 5
R3: 1,8
R4: ALL
R5: 1,3,9

48 Bets, $24

If I had to guess, I’d say that my opening single in the early Pick Four will likely be the shortest price on the card. That’s #5 KING POWER, who certainly seems like the main speed in this bottom-level claiming event. If he’s allowed to dictate terms on the front end, I think he’ll be very tough to beat, and singling him allows me to spread elsewhere at a fairly-low cost.

The third is a two-turn event on grass, and I almost singled here as well. #8 GRACE’S DRAMA makes her second start off a long layoff, and her return came against much better horses. She showed some speed in a starter allowance before fading in a race she clearly needed, and this seems like a much softer spot for a horse that should be ready to progress. I reluctantly included morning line choice #1 PLEIN AIR, simply because there’s a fair amount of speed signed on that could set things up for her late kick, but Grace’s Drama is my top pick.

I have no such convictions about the fourth, an optional claiming race on the lawn where there doesn’t appear to be a standout. #2 BINGO KITTEN is favored, and his race two back was very good, but his recent dud can’t be ignored, and the claiming tag he’s entered with could be a red flag. I’m buying the race and hoping we get a price home.

The payoff leg is a maiden claimer for female sprinters, and I’m three-deep. #1 Y’ALL’s lone dirt race came in a tough straight maiden event, and she was a respectable fourth. The runner-up has since come back to win, and she’s a legitimate favorite. I’ll also use #3 QUICKLUCKYCOCO, who adds blinkers and has shown some life since dropping to this level three back, and #9 SENZA TE, who returns off a long layoff for Wesley Ward and sports several sharp drills at Palm Meadows.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 2,6
R7: 2,5,6,7
R8: 7,12,13
R9: 2,9

48 Bets, $24

I have no singles in this sequence, one that contains races with an average field size of 11 horses. If you hit, chances are you’ll get paid handsomely.

It starts with a minor stakes race, the Texas Glitter for turf sprinters. #2 BARBAROSSA has hinted at talent for Todd Pletcher and merits respect cutting back to one turn. I’ll use him, but I can’t ignore #6 REED KAN, whose lone turf race back in December was an excellent performance. That one seems like the main speed in here, and he could be the one they have to run down turning for home.

The seventh is a bottom-level claimer, and I found this race pretty tricky. I’m going against morning line choice #10 STARSHIP APOLLO, who’s on a four-race losing streak here and may prefer Gulfstream Park West. Additionally, while I used #5 MITOS Y LEYENDAS, 2-1 seems like a short price on a horse that hasn’t won since 2016. Of the four I’m using, the biggest price is #7 HORSE SPOTTER CARL, who won two back before getting off to a rough start last time out at this level. 15-1 seems like an overlay if you draw a line through that race.

I’m also going against the morning line choice in the eighth. That’s #9 FLIRTY, who takes a huge drop for high-profile connections after two misfires against straight maidens. I’ll try to beat her, and my top pick is #7 SOMEWHATOPTIMISTIC, who improved last time out in her second career start. She was beaten less than a length, and the top two finishers from that race have both come back to win. Further improvement in start number three would make her tough, and those 8-1 odds look juicy. I’ll also use second choice #12 TRUMP THAT and #13 SECOND ILLUSION, who missed the break in her debut but showed some life in rallying for third money.

The ninth is a turf route for older claimers, and it’s drawn a strong field for the level. I highly doubt we’ll get 5-1 on #9 RAY’S THE BAR, who was an impressive winner last time out on the drop in class. Jose Ortiz stays on, and I think he’ll probably be your post-time favorite. I’ll also throw in #2 MEGEVE, who ran two very good races two and three back before throwing in a clunker last time out. I can excuse that race, since he was marooned on the far outside with a short run into the first turn. He draws more favorably here in his first start for the strong David Fawkes outfit, and Luis Saez riding back is a plus.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1,5,7,13
R11: 4
R12: 1,2,3,6,8
R13: 1,7,9,12

80 Bets, $40

In order to play this ticket for a reasonable amount of money, you need to single somewhere. The question is, where do you do it? The bookends of the sequence feature a number of first-time starters that will take money, the Hal’s Hope seems competitive, and the second leg is a claiming event with many horses that look similar to one another. If you’re right in taking a stand, though, you could be in line for a windfall.

The 10th is a maiden event for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs, and pedigree folks ought to be chomping at the bit. #5 BAIL OUT is a half to several graded stakes winners, and #7 RULER OF THE NILE was a million-dollar purchase at last year’s OBS sale. I’ll use them both, while also throwing in second-time starter #1 KING ZACHARY (who ran into Principe Guilherme in his debut) and #13 ARK IN THE DARK (who’s been working well at Palm Meadows for Kelly Breen and draws a cushy outside post).

My stand comes in the 11th. I’m far from crazy about it, but if I’m right on #4 ZEFIRO, I’ve got plenty of coverage elsewhere to potentially get paid. He was claimed last time out by Robert Dibona, who has run a smaller barn with great success over the past few years. His strike rate first off the claim is excellent, and note the presence of Javier Castellano, who doesn’t ride for him very often.

I couldn’t take any sort of a stand in the Hal’s Hope, and if you can, more power to you. #1 IRISH WAR CRY makes his 2018 debut, but it’s not like he HAS to win this event, and his best races have come around two turns. I needed coverage here, and my top pick is #6 MALAGACY, who almost certainly needed the race last time out going six furlongs. He didn’t run terribly that day, and he should be much more fit in this spot.

We finish with a real puzzler in the form of a maiden race for 3-year-olds going a mile on turf. #7 RHODE ISLAND and #9 VEGAS KITTEN are both first-time starters that will take money. I’ve used them both, but I much prefer two horses with experience, and one of them is a crazy price. #12 ROSE’S VISION will have to work out a trip, but he’s got plenty of turf form from last year and needed the race last time out. He could go off favored, and he’d be far from shocking. My big price is #1 TOP SECRET INDY, who debuted going a mile and was eased. However, Bill Mott’s horses usually need a race to get going, and the 316 turf Tomlinson number indicates he could relish the lawn. His second dam, Winendynme, was a multiple stakes winner on turf, and for all of these reasons, it wouldn’t be stunning if he took a major step forward in this spot. I have to use him, especially given his 20-1 morning line price.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2
R3: 2,3,5,6
R4: 4,5,6,7
R5: 4,8

32 Bets, $16

Of the five sequences I’ve dissected, this is the one where I’m least optimistic about a huge payoff. It seems chalky on paper, especially if the likely favorite wins the feature, but maybe there’s a way we can extract some value.

I’m singling #2 GIFT OF A STAR in the second, a $16,000 claiming event. She comes back to dirt and drops in class, and her recent form looks much better if you cross out the turf races. This isn’t a stellar group, and this one’s usual dirt race should be good enough to beat this bunch.

I’m four-deep in both the second and third legs. The second leg is a sprint, and while I’m using likely favorite #5 HERE AND THERE and possible second choice #6 CLASSICO, I’m also going to throw in a few prices. #2 BEAR SKINNED drops in class a bit and has some competitive back form, while #3 CHROMIUM was claimed last time out following an uncharacteristic dud.

The fourth race is the Grade 3 Daytona, and it features the return of #7 STORMY LIBERAL. Trainer Peter Miller, though, saddles two others in here, and that makes me a bit apprehensive about the likely favorite’s chances. I’m using the other two Miller charges, as well as #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC, who could get an ideal setup rating off a hot pace beneath Kent Desormeaux.

The payoff leg features another possibly-heavy favorite. That’s #4 MONDAYMORNINGBLUES, who drops in for a tag for the first time. It wouldn’t be shocking if she won, but I also need to use #8 ALLIE’S LOVE, who’s been competitive at this level in two straight starts and draws a nice outside post. Whichever one of those two makes the lead should be tough to run down late.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,3,5,6,7,9,10
R8: 2,5,10
R9: 5,7
R10: 4

42 Bets, $21

By contrast to the early Pick Four, the late Pick Four could pay pretty well, even if shorter-priced horses find the winner’s circle. The fields are large, and that bodes well for the potential payoff.

We start with the seventh, and I needed to spread in this two-turn turf route. I almost punched the “ALL” button, but was at least able to whittle it down to seven horses in this 12-horse group. If you’ve got deeper pockets, buying the race may not be a bad idea, as it’s tough to separate this bunch.

The eighth is a maiden special weight event for older fillies and mares. #2 GET YOURSELF HOME is the morning line choice, but the relative lack of early speed she’s shown is a bit problematic. I used her, but I’m more focused on #5 ZILLINDA and #10 KARMIC AFFINITY. Those two have significantly more early speed, and, to me, they seem more logical.

I’m two-deep in the ninth, a classy optional claimer. #7 LIFE’S BLESSINGS will be a popular single, but I have to go deeper than just her. #5 POWDER got very good last fall, winning three in a row before a failed turf experiment. She’s working well ahead of her 2018 debut, and, on figures, she’s right with the likely favorite.

My single comes in the Saturday finale, the Wishing Well Stakes. #4 BENDABLE made her downhill debut last time out in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas and ran well, finishing second behind a classy mare. This seems like a softer spot, and she should be ready to take a step forward second off the bench. While I think she’s imposing, and while she’ll likely be a short price, I think there’s value in the exotics. #9 BARBARA BEATRICE, #10 ALGORITHMIC, and #11 MONGOLIAN SHOPPER all love this route of ground, and they’ll all be square prices that could shake things up by hitting the board.

A Recent History of the “Loaded Allowance”

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Recent racing history tells us there’s more than one way to the Triple Crown races. Preps are run all around the country and award points to the top finishers, but in recent seasons, the routes to the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont have featured “on ramps” that aren’t necessarily on the agendas of owners, trainers, and breeders when the journey starts.

The entrance point I’m speaking of is the seemingly-annual “loaded allowance” race, which usually draws 3-year-olds of varying intents and developments. In an odd twist, many trainers seem to opt for this race over graded stakes company on the basis of a softer field and a prep for later in the season, only to see major players from other big barns show up in the “softer” spot!

We may have seen such a race Sunday at Gulfstream Park. Mississippi scratched out of the Grade 2 Holy Bull after drawing the far outside post, and Navistar entered after he couldn’t make the trip to Oaklawn Park for the Smarty Jones two weeks ago. Both would have taken play in deeper waters had they run in those races, but neither of those horses won on Sunday in what was perceived to be an easier event. Storm Runner held off a furious rally from Mississippi despite racing greenly in the stretch, while Navistar bore out badly turning for home and beat just one runner to the wire.

Time will tell if this race joins some of the other “loaded allowance” affairs of the past few years, ones that ultimately produced multiple graded stakes-caliber horses. Last year’s event of this nature came on the west coast, when a field of eight 3-year-olds went postward on March 9th at Santa Anita. That day’s favorite was 6/5 shot Reach the World, who unfortunately never got to reach his full potential due to a fatal training accident later that year (his last start was a fourth-place finish behind Gormley in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby). On this day, Reach the World had to settle for second, a neck behind the victorious Battle of Midway.

The winner, of course, went on to take the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile later that season, but there were other runners of consequence in that race. Mr. Hinx ran fourth and emerged as a solid sprinter later in the year (running second behind eventual Eclipse Award winner Roy H in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship), fifth-place finisher Irish Freedom has run in several graded stakes races in the past few months, and sixth-place finisher Sharp Samurai found his true calling on turf, where he reeled off three straight graded stakes wins in the summer and fall.

It was pretty tough to find an example of this type of a race in 2016. Arrogate proved to be head and shoulders above his rivals in the second half of the year, and the top runners in Triple Crown races went more conventional routes. The closest I found was an optional claimer that took place on March 6th over the since-removed inner track at Aqueduct. My Man Sam would go on to run against some of the top horses of his crop, and he was sent off as the 7/5 choice. However, Matt King Coal opened up a clear lead going around the far turn and had just enough left to hold off that rival by a diminishing length.

Matt King Coal never really fulfilled the potential he hinted at, but he wound up with 11 top-three finishes in 13 starts (the most notable of which was a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic in 2017), plus career earnings of well over $600,000. Oddly enough, the horse with the most notable victory in this field was the one who ran last, beaten more than 15 lengths. That was Inside Straight, who pulled off a 19-1 shocker in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap last spring. That one’s still going strong, too, having started his 5-year-old season off with a win in a minor stakes race a few weeks ago.

I’m cheating a little bit with my 2015 selection. In my defense, this was American Pharoah’s year, and there’s not a lot to go off of. My selection is the overnight “stakes race” known as the Islamorada Handicap, which was run March 6th at Gulfstream Park. It offered a $60,000 purse, which is only a hair more than the standard allowance would offer, so I’m shoehorning it in. The race drew a field of six runners, and Todd Pletcher trainees finished 1-2 under the wire. Materiality bounded home clear by nearly six lengths, and he’d take the Grade 1 Florida Derby at next asking before chasing Pharoah in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont.

Pletcher’s other runner, though, had a more eventful trip. Stanford was disqualified from second and placed last, but thankfully, things would get better for him. He’d win four stakes races, including the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic and Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday in 2016, and would quietly amass nearly $1.4 million in career earnings before being retired to stud.

I’ll finish with 2014, which, as luck would have it, may have featured the best example of a “loaded allowance” in recent racing history. On February 22nd of that year, three eventual Grade 1 winners ran 1-2-4 in the sixth at Gulfstream Park. Constitution went wire-to-wire that day before winning the Florida Derby, and he’d go on to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap the next year as well.

That only scratches the surface of how strong that race was, though. Tonalist ran second a few starts before spoiling California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid in the Belmont, and he’d also win back-to-back renewals of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and one running of the Cigar Mile. Meanwhile, fourth-place finisher Wicked Strong won that year’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his very next start. As if that wasn’t enough, that allowance’s third-place finisher, Mexikoma, was no slouch, either. He had his physical issues, but when he was right, he could run. He contested the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he took the 2016 Sunshine Millions Classic before running third in that season’s Donn (which doubled as his career finale).

Think there’s a race I’m missing? Have one that stands out in your mind? Shoot me a message through the ‘contact’ function. I read everything that comes through, and I genuinely enjoy hearing from readers and racing fans.