BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,128.50

Steeplechase racing isn’t for everyone, but today’s Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick was a blast to handicap. It’s the Wednesday opener, and even if you’re not a hurdles expert, there’s plenty to dig into.

If the names Abaan and L’Imperator look familiar, there’s a reason. They’re both graded stakes winners on the flat who have continued their careers over fences. Pickanumber, meanwhile, comes to the U.S. after four wins in five starts this season in Great Britain. Add in a few rock-solid jump horses, and you’ve got yourself a legitimate stakes race.

As a reminder, the steeplechase race is not included in the early Pick Five. On days where there is a steeplechase race, that wager starts in the second race, and the early Pick Four begins in the third.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Taking a swing against a favorite worked out about as well as it could have. 18-1 shot Unstable Prince pulled off an upset in the eighth, heavy chalk Star of Mystery rolled in the ninth, and a $20 investment into four $5 doubles returned $222.50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the 4-1 morning line price on #2 HUE in the sixth race. I think she’s set to improve considerably at second asking against what looks like a very suspect group. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on that runner, one that doubles as my best bet of the Wednesday program.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Hue, Race 6
Longshot: Amy’s Light, Race 8

R1

L’Imperator
Pickanumber
Abaan

#5 L’IMPERATOR (3-1): Broke through to win a Grade 1 downstate last time out (one that was supposed to be held here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but got washed out). He’s proven without Lasix, seems to be in top form, and gets a few pounds from the likely favorite; #7 PICKANUMBER (2-1): Turned into a stakes horse overseas and most recently thumped 16 other jump horses by 15 lengths. If he brings his European form stateside for this high-percentage outlet, that could be good enough to top this classy bunch; #2 ABAAN (9/5): Is on a four-race win streak, including a few wins over my top selection. He carries this field’s top weight assignment, though, and must race over hurdles without Lasix for the first time. I respect him, but at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him in a fascinating renewal of the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick.

R2

Save Time
Refuse to Lose
Fazools

#2 SAVE TIME (7/5): Has improved, figures-wise, in every start to date for Chad Brown and seems like a logical favorite. She chased a slow pace in her first two-turn outing downstate, and another step forward would likely make her tough; #5 REFUSE TO LOSE (4-1): Stretches out to two turns after a solid second and is bred to love this trip. This daughter of Belmont winner Union Rags came flying late here last month and should get some pace to chase; #6 FAZOOLS (2-1): Ships up from Monmouth and is the other half of Brown’s potent 1-2 punch in here, but I have some doubts. Her debut race sure seemed like it collapsed up front, and while she made up a bunch of ground, I’m just not sold on that event’s quality.

R3

Practically Summer
Vehemente
Bellacose

#6 PRACTICALLY SUMMER (7/2): Hammered for $145,000 at auction last year, and while Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race, this one has turned some heads in the mornings. Her dam was a first-out winner, and that broodmare is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner and millionaire Zivo; #1 VEHEMENTE (9/5): Has every right to be a very precocious filly. She’s by red-hot sire Vekoma, and she comes in off of a bullet drill here last week. The rail draw, though, is a concern, and this solid barn has reputation for taking its time with talented horses rather than having them fully primed on debut; #7 BELLACOSE (6-1): Sold for $82,000 late last year and debuts for a barn that sent out the winner of last week’s Grade 3 Sanford. Her second dam is Grade 3 winner Bahnah, and the most recent half-mile gate drill is pretty encouraging.

R4

Sharper Gal
Pebble Lane
Permed

#5 SHARPER GAL (5/2): Takes a big drop from a starter allowance race to a claiming event for non-winners of two. Prior to the last-out clunker, she aired in a sprint at Churchill Downs, and a return to form would make her a major player; #6 PEBBLE LANE (12-1): Is an opportunity to use one of my favorite angles in racing. This one was off more than a year after a two-back clunker, then almost certainly needed the last-out effort. If she gets back to her late-2022 form, she’s got a chance at a big price; #3 PERMED (3-1): May be one of the favorites, but I have some doubts. She ran in some pretty tough maiden races as a 2-year-old, graduated for a $40,000 tag at Gulfstream, then showed up at Monmouth and did no running as a 2-1 favorite on turf. Here, she’s back on dirt, at a tricky distance, for a very, very low claiming tag given her pedigree. Her best race could win, but red flags abound.

R5

Ichiban (MTO)
Olivia Maralda
A Primera Vista

#9 OLIVIA MARALDA (8/5): Fired a big shot in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita, where she was a close-up second behind a high-quality mare. She takes a massive class drop into the optional claiming ranks, adds Lasix, and maintains top rider Flavien Prat; #1 A PRIMERA VISTA (10-1): Has won three in a row since adding Lasix for the first time and gets a major class test here. Inside speed can be tough on the inner turf, and it’s always notable when Frankie Dettori gets on a talented grass horse for the first time; #2 BE YOUR BEST (7/2): Looked like a future star back in 2022, when she won two races at the Spa (including the P.G. Johnson). However, she hasn’t won since and runs against non-stakes opponents for the first time in almost two years. She could wake up and run well, but this is hardly a soft spot for the level.

R6

Hue
Parade Ring
Sassy Allie

#2 HUE (4-1): Didn’t run well in her debut, which was rained off the turf. Her bottom-side pedigree is all-grass, and I think she may have learned a lot in her initial outing. The class drop certainly doesn’t hurt, and ignore this barn at your own peril; #6 PARADE RING (9/2): Runs for a tag for the first time and debuted with a solid third here last summer. This barn has had a year to forget to this point, but the horses that like this turf sprint route can often wake up in these races; #10 SASSY ALLIE (10-1): Is another whose debut was moved to the main track. She’s since worked almost exclusively on turf, which sure seems like a clue, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back when he almost certainly had several options.

R7

Theresasilverlinin
Obrigada
She Caught My Eye

#10 THERESASILVERLININ (2-1): Is one of two in here for Mike Maker, who looks to get going after a tough start to the met. This filly, though, gets a cushy outside draw, top speed rider Luis Saez, and a race shape that should play to her front-running style; #7 OBRIGADA (8-1): Gets a significant rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., after a race out of the Wilson chute that, for her, was probably over at the start. Blinkers go on, and the recent uptick in her workouts includes a four-furlong bullet earlier this month; #9 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE (5-1): Makes her first start since October and has every right to contend if she’s ready to run. She was second here in a similar spot a season ago, and it also helps that she’s got a win at this tricky seven-furlong distance.

R8

Amy’s Light
Soloshot
Bossy Jeans

#8 AMY’S LIGHT (20-1): Is strictly a value play in a race where I have no strong opinion. Her race two back on turf against open company was pretty good, and while the two-turn trip is a question mark (as it is for almost every horse in this field), I’m confident turf is the surface she wants, and we’ll likely get a very appealing price; #3 SOLOSHOT (4-1): Beat a number of these going shorter last time out downstate and could cap off a big day for Irad. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; #10 BOSSY JEANS (9/2): Is the only horse in this field with a win going two turns on turf. That came in a maiden claimer downstate, but that was also her first try since November. It’s possible something’s clicked as she’s gotten older, and the presence of Luis Saez is a plus.

R9

Maturity Date (MTO)
Pay the Bills
Hill entry

#13 PAY THE BILLS (7/2): Needs a scratch to draw in but figures to be a handful if she does. The runner-up from her debut, Strife, came back to run well here last week, and this is a significantly weaker field. Add in the likelihood of a step forward at second asking, and I think you have a likely winner; #1 TRUE MYTH (9/2): May have needed her most recent race, where she steadied, raced last early, and rallied to finish a better-than-it-looked fifth. Blinkers go on second off the bench, and I don’t think she needs to improve much to be a factor; #6 CLASSIC CARA (8-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a second-place finish at odds of 22-1. Javier Castellano seemed to get along with her pretty well that day. He’s back in the irons here, with a better draw, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the speed.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $926

A heads-up for this coming week, folks: Starting Wednesday night, I’m going to be in Denver with my fiancée on a quick vacation. I’ll still have all my stuff in, with the caveat that the print version of my bankroll section may not have my up-to-date total in there.

As a reminder, you can check out all of my content on AndrewChampagne.com. I’ll have bankroll totals updated there each night, but that might be after The Pink Sheet goes to the printers, and I don’t want to leave my editor in a lurch!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Tidal Forces ran absolutely gigantic in the ninth and finished second at 30-1. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the winner in my exacta plays. Despite some sharp handicapping on my part, I dropped $28.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a small swing against #3 PROVE WORTHY in the eighth. Perhaps he makes me look silly, but I’m wondering why he’s in this restricted claiming race given some of his past form. I’ll bet against him in $5 doubles that use #2 SOUTH STREET, #5 MAGIA NERA, #7 UNSTABLE PRINCE, and #9 PHILHARMONIC in the eighth and single #6 STAR OF MYSTERY in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Itza Mirrakle, Race 5
Longshot: Philharmonic, Race 8

R1

Kimchi Cat
La Cara
Bossy Pants

#1 KIMCHI CAT (3-1): Was one-paced in her debut, where she chased a runner that went on to compete in the Schuylerville on opening day. She’s got an experience edge over some of this field, and I’m expecting a step forward at second asking; #8 LA CARA (2-1): Dueled through fast fractions last time out at Churchill and settled for second. Based on that effort, she can win, though I’ve got questions about the lack of a published work since that race and the fact that this barn also saddles #5 SHE’S A GAMER (12-1); #6 BOSSY PANTS (5-1): Ran like a horse that needed her unveiling last time out. This barn’s first-time starters often need a race to get going, and the slow break certainly didn’t help matters.

R2

Rice entry
Screaming Uncle
Tivy

RICE ENTRY (7/5): Is a “hold my nose” pick in a starter allowance where I’m truly not in love with any betting interest. However, #1 RIDER’S SPECIAL was an impressive winner last time out, and #1A BLOWN COVER flashed talent late last year and could rediscover it with the recent barn switch; #3 SCREAMING UNCLE (10-1): Won two in a row against weaker groups before salvaging third after a terrible start last time out. He had to rally from last, and that’s not this one’s desired trip; #4 TIVY (8/5): Figures to take a bunch of betting money, but I’m against him here. He’s a dream to own, with 14 in-the-money finishes in 17 career starts, but with only one win on his sheet (and none since early-2023), I simply cannot back him on top.

R3

Boss Tweed (MTO)
Russi
Saratoga Banker

#2 RUSSI (2-1): Exits a very classy race for the level that has produced several next-out winners. He was a good second that day, and he returns to the route where he broke his maiden late last summer; #8 SARATOGA BANKER (10-1): Returns to the turf, which he’s only tried once before. Given the turf-heavy pedigree, I find that a bit odd, but these are Finger Lakes-based connections and there’s no grass course there. Given that one prior turf effort and  the ability of these connections to pop at a price, I think there’s value here; #6 TWISTED FILIGREE (9/2): Has been off more than a year, but ran two strong races before going to the sidelines and is a contender if he’s ready to run. He’s been gelded since his last race, and this is a barn that knows how to win with horses on the comeback trail.

R4

Signal From Noise
Jacobson entry
Mighty Madison

#2 SIGNAL FROM NOISE (6/5): Came back running in her first start since last summer, when she was a close-up second downstate. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win on opening day, and I’m expecting a sharper performance here second off the bench for Chad Brown; JACOBSON ENTRY: I prefer #1 MOSIENKO (4-1), a classy sort with 11 wins in 45 career starts. She’s won three times here at the Spa, boasts three wins at this distance, and merits plenty of respect; #6 MIGHTY MADISON (8/5): Ran a career-best race last time out, when she stalked, pounced, and held sway through the stretch at Churchill Downs. A similar type of effort gives her a shot, but it’s fair to wonder if her Kentucky form will travel, and this sure seems like a much tougher group than the one she beat last time.

R5

Itza Mirrakle
Trulli Warrior
Military Road

#3 ITZA MIRRAKLE (4-1): Debuted with a strong second here last month going seven furlongs, which isn’t a small ask for a first-time starter. His pedigree says he’ll relish stretching out to two turns, and trainer Tom Morley’s horses often improve with experience. Given that he also figures to get plenty of pace to chase, I think he’s live at a solid price; #6 TRULLI WARRIOR (6-1): Is one of two in here for Todd Pletcher, and this is the one I prefer. The recent workouts suggest he learned quite a bit from his unveiling, and this is another one whose pedigree screams “wants to go long”; #1 MILITARY ROAD (9/5): Is one of two who figure to take most of the betting money, but I’m not sold. I thought he sat an ideal trip last time out. He was run down that day, and there’s some other early speed in here, too. At his likely price, I simply can’t endorse him on top.

R6

DeVaux entry
Strife
Appellate

DEVAUX ENTRY (2-1): Both #1 PISCIOTTA and #1A DEEP SATIN could win. The former endured a nightmare trip in her debut this spring at Keeneland, while the latter has finished second twice in as many starts to date; #8 STRIFE (4-1): Is another with two seconds in two starts, with the most recent one coming at Aqueduct. Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement, and she should be up close early on; #3 APPELLATE (12-1): Is an example of one of my favorite handicapping angles, the “toss two” play. It’s safe to assume something went wrong in the Grade 2 Jessamine because we didn’t see her again until June, where she was a non-factor in a race she needed off the bench. A return to last summer’s form beneath Frankie Dettori gives her a chance at a big price.

R7

Truly Quality
Crabs N Beer
Mondego

#2 TRULY QUALITY (5/2): Has shown an affinity for marathon distances, having most recently thumped an overmatched bunch at this distance downstate. The 96 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in that race is hands down the top last-out figure in this field, and he looks tough; #10 CRABS N BEER (8-1): Ran very well when second in the Grade 3 Dinner Party over a boggy turf course at Pimlico. He’s turned into quite the consistent turfer, and he’ll be a contender if he handles the additional distance here; #8 MONDEGO (4-1): Came back running off of a six-month layoff to finish a close-up third after doing most of the dirty work up front. He spent most of last year running against better horses, and most notably ran third in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby (where he was beaten just a length by Far Bridge).

R8

Philharmonic
Prove Worthy
Unstable Prince

#9 PHILHARMONIC (15-1): Saw something click last time out, when he crushed a field of lower-level claimers at Churchill Downs. The Wilson chute is a strange beast, but I generally prefer two-turn horses cutting back to one-turn horses stretching out, and this one’s record looks far better if you toss the career debut on turf and three clunkers at Oaklawn; #3 PROVE WORTHY (6/5): Wouldn’t be a gigantic shock given the massive class drop. Just two starts ago, he ran third in a stakes-quality optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Based on form, he’s supposed to win, but if he’s this good, why is he running for a $25,000 tag?; #7 UNSTABLE PRINCE (15-1): Is one of two in here for David Jacobson, and while he hasn’t won in a while, a few recent efforts are solid enough. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be.

R9

Star of Mystery
Fandom
American Rascal

#6 STAR OF MYSTERY (4/5): Scratched from Friday’s Coronation Cup to run here, and she looks like a massive favorite in the Grade 3 Quick Call. This filly was last seen running third behind older males in the Grade 1 Jaipur, and while this isn’t a bad group of 3-year-olds, it’s a substantial class drop; #3 FANDOM (9/2): Has run just three times, but he’s 2-for-2 in the U.S., with his lone defeat coming last year at Royal Ascot. He showed a new dimension last time out, when he rated and rallied to win the Palisades at Keeneland; #7 AMERICAN RASCAL (20-1): Is bred in the purple, being by Curlin and out of the freakish mare Lady Aurelia. This will be his turf debut, but he’s bred up and down to handle it, has several strong local drills, and will be a horse I’ll have in exotics, since he’ll likely be a pretty big price.

R10

Flying P entry
Billy’s Got Issues
St. Joe Louis

#1 LA MAQUINA (8-1): Flashed speed in his return off of a two-year layoff last time out before fading to finish sixth. He almost certainly needed the race that day, and I’m expecting significant improvement with a front-running trip that tends to work out well on the inner turf; #10 BILLY’S GOT ISSUES (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but the blinkers go on second off the bench for trainer Ray Handal. The post position is a problem, but he did everything but win last time out at Monmouth and he ran reasonably well here a season ago; #14 ST. JOE LOUIS (7/2): Simply does not win, with just one triumph in 19 career starts. He does, however, hit the board with regularity, and he’ll be a threat to do so once again if he draws in off of the AE list.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $954

If you have money in the, “when will Andrew use this space for a cheap plug?,” pool, listen up! Closing night in Hong Kong is coming up on Sunday. If you’re up late on Saturday or early on Sunday (I don’t judge either scenario!), tune into the North American simulcast feed from Sha Tin.

The first post time is 4 am Eastern. I’ll be providing insight on each race, and if you like big fields of super-talented horses, you’re in for a treat.

Being able to do this the last six weeks or so has been an absolute blast. I’d like to thank the Hong Kong Jockey Club and everyone there for their hospitality and support. It’s been an honor to share the stage with some folks who are among the best in the world at what they do, and hopefully, I can give out a few winners to finish off the season.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The seventh was indeed a grass grab bag, but I was nowhere close and dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, where I really hope we get the 10-1 morning line price on #1 TIDAL FORCES. I’ll have a $10 win bet on him, and I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #7 GEORGIE W, #8 IRISH ACES, and #9 BEUYS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Friday: 4-for-9
Meet: 5-for-20

Best Bet: Studlydoright, Race 11
Longshot: Abreu entry, Race 9

R1

Dare to Breeze
Gerlin’s Empire
Amore Sofia

#4 DARE TO BREEZE (4/5): Could get the first Saturday card of the meet off to a very chalky start. She exits one of the best 2-year-old races we’ve seen all year, one that’s already produced the Schuylerville runner-up and a next-out maiden winner; #3 GERLIN’S EMPIRE (6-1): Debuts for Dallas Stewart and is bred to want more ground, but she’s been working well and attracts Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. She’s got every right to be a runner, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if she shows talent here; #5 AMORE SOFIA (5-1): Goes against open company when she could be running against New York-breds, and that seems like a vote of confidence. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s first-time starters often need a race, but the last-out gate work indicates she could have potential.

R2

Mysterious Night
Carl Spackler
Talk of the Nation

#2 MYSTERIOUS NIGHT (8/5): Is one of several contenders in the Grade 3 Kelso that exit the Grade 3 Poker on the Belmont Stakes undercard. He had a strange trip that day and was the only runner to be gaining ground in the final strides. If he’s sharper second off the bench for world-class connections, look out; #5 CARL SPACKLER (2-1): May have bounced a bit in the Poker after a win in his 2024 debut at Churchill Downs. He’s won two graded stakes races over this turf course and has every right to bounce back here; #4 TALK OF THE NATION (2-1): Didn’t seem to have many excuses in the Poker, when he ran third after pressing a very moderate pace. He could sit a similar trip here against a shorter field; the question is, can he move forward off of what sure seemed like a dream setup last time out?

R3

Celestial Glaze
SOK entry
Poppy’s Pride

#4 CELESTIAL GLAZE (3-1): Broke through to end a long drought last time out, when he won a head-bob at Gulfstream to earn his first win since March of 2023. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and when this barn gets horses going the right way, they can string wins together in bunches; SOK ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1A TOP GUNNER, although the lack of a recent win is a big problem. Having said that, he’s been running against much tougher competition, and if the recent workouts are any indication, he’s thriving in upstate New York; #2 POPPY’S PRIDE (6-1): Is a consistent, hard-trying gelding who sure seems like the main speed in this event. He’s got enough zip to take advantage of the inside draw, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lane Luzzi attempt to steal this one on the front end.

R4

Illuminare
Uncorrelated
Classic Legacy

#2 ILLUMINARE (7/5): Did everything right in his debut, when he stalked and pounced at this route last month. I’m not quite sure what he beat that day, but he looked good doing it, and several of his recent workouts indicate he’s ready for his first try against winners; #1 UNCORRELATED (12-1): Ships up from Monmouth after a string of impressive works for Chad Brown, who has guided him through some issues during a layoff of more than 16 months. We haven’t seen him since last year’s Grade 3 Gotham, but his first-out win was fine and the likely price seems like an overlay; #3 CLASSIC LEGACY (5/2): Hasn’t won since December of 2022, and he’s burned plenty of money along the way. However, he does cut back from a mile to seven furlongs, his early-2024 races at similar routes were pretty strong, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

R5

Certified Loverboy (MTO)
Brown entry
Hunt Ball

BROWN ENTRY (6/5): One of the most powerful barns on the circuit seems to be in a great spot here. #1 TRANSACTIONAL makes his comeback after a year and a half away, while #1A UNIT ECONOMICS earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden-breaking score last month; #4 HUNT BALL (8-1): Came from way, way back to be fourth here last month and has found a home as a one-run closer on the turf. There seems to be some speed signed on, and he should be going the right direction late at a bit of a price; #3 REBEL RED (5-1): Earned the diploma last time out in his second start off a long break. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back for Cherie DeVaux, whose barn is enjoying a banner year to this point.

R6

U Should B Dancing
Stolen Future
Strictly Taboo

#6 U SHOULD B DANCING (6-1): Gets a tepid top pick in a race where I truly don’t have a strong opinion. She makes her third start off the bench here, attracts Flavien Prat, and has shown an affinity for this route of ground. At her likely price, she’s an appealing value proposition; #7 STOLEN FUTURE (7/2): Is another making her third start off the bench, and she may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he may have had several options, and that might be a clue; #11 STRICTLY TABOO (6-1): Graduated last time out with a picture-perfect trip. She faces winners for the first time and doesn’t draw very well, but Rosario rides back and this isn’t the toughest first-level allowance we’ll see this summer.

R7

Tenacious Leader
Asleep At Eight
Tough Catch

#3 TENACIOUS LEADER (5/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., which alone makes him worthy of some respect. Add in a work tab with several sparkling gate drills and a rock-solid pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a mare who’s kin to, among others, multiple graded stakes winner War Story), and there’s a lot to like; #5 ASLEEP AT EIGHT (8-1): Didn’t run poorly in his unveiling, when he settled for second at Churchill Downs last month. His pedigree indicates he’ll improve with experience, and he’s got an edge over most of this field in that department; #1 TOUGH CATCH (8-1): Gets a tricky inside draw for his debut, but he hammered for $280,000 despite a modest-looking pedigree and has been working well for Dallas Stewart. Luis Saez is one of the top gate riders in the country, and he may be able to get this first-time starter into a good spot despite the undesirable post.

R8

Commuted
Point Clear
Upstanding

#7 COMMUTED (5-1): Closed with a rush to be third in his debut for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully-cranked. This son of Gun Runner has every right to improve at second asking, and if that happens, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #2 POINT CLEAR (5-1): Salvaged second despite a rough start last month and is another that could take a step forward. Jose Ortiz got to know him that day, and several recent works hint that he’s been doing well; #3 UPSTANDING (4-1): Debuts for Pletcher and Irad and is bred in the purple. He fetched $400,000 at auction in 2022 and he’s got every right to be well-meant, but seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, and I think there’s a chance he needs this initial effort.

R9

Abreu entry
Irish Aces
Georgie W

ABREU ENTRY (10-1): The more I look at #1 TIDAL FORCES, the more I like him. He comes back to the turf, has plenty of tactical speed, and showed enough class to finish third in a stakes race at Gulfstream earlier this year. I think he could sit an ideal trip and get first run at a price; #8 IRISH ACES (2-1): Drops in class after finishing a competitive third in the Grade 3 Arlington at Churchill. He was much closer to the pace than he usually is on that occasion, and he may need to sit that kind of trip here in a race without a ton of true early zip; #7 GEORGIE W (8-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort, which came off of an 11-month break. He didn’t run terribly to be third that day, and a step forward second off the bench beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly not out of the question.

R10

Didia
Chili Flag
Whitebeam

#4 DIDIA (7/2): Is one of the easiest horses to root for that you’ll ever find. She’s 11-for-17, won the Grade 1 New York last time out, and always seems to fire a big shot. In a race with many milers stretching out, this one has shown an affinity for this nine-furlong trip, and that could be enough to win a fantastic renewal of the Grade 1 Diana; #10 CHILI FLAG (9/2): Has won three in a row, and four of her last five dating back to November. One of those victories was in the Grade 1 Just A Game here last month, and if there’s any sort of a battle up front, this one should be a main beneficiary; #6 WHITEBEAM (4-1): Won this race last year, when she ran down fellow Chad Brown trainee In Italian. She hasn’t won since, but she was a good second in the Just A Game, and her tactical speed should be a big plus.

R11

Studlydoright
Mentee
Mr. Squeaky Wheels

#6 STUDLYDORIGHT (7/2): Came from far, far back to upset the field in the Tremont last month and figures to be rolling late again in the Grade 3 Sanford. It’s tough for most 2-year-olds to make up so much ground, but this one’s shown he can do it, and I think he’s an exciting prospect; #1 MENTEE (6/5): Looked home free in mid-stretch last time out, but he wound up barely holding off that day’s runner-up after leading by five in mid-stretch. Maybe it was inexperience, or perhaps it was overconfidence by a rider who usually doesn’t make those mistakes. Improvement would make him the one to beat, but the rail draw doesn’t help, and at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him; #2 MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS (15-1): Debuted with a sharp score over the synthetic surface at Presque Isle and ships in for a solid barn. Jose Ortiz has been enlisted to ride, and if he likes dirt as much as he relishes that synthetic surface, I think he’s got a shot at a very square price.

R12

Upside Potential (MTO)
Dr Oseran
Final Verdict

#2 DR OSERAN (7/2): Ran a sneaky-good race two back at Pimlico over a turf course that was nowhere close to “good.” I’m treating the last-out dud as a bounce, and it’s encouraging that Joel Rosario gets back in the saddle for Christophe Clement in the Saturday finale; #1 FINAL VERDICT (6-1): Finished first at odds of 70-1 last time out before being disqualified due to interference. You won’t get anywhere near that price in this spot, but I do think he’s live, and I imagine he’ll be prominent early beneath new jockey Tyler Gaffalione; #5 HEYMACKIT’SJACK (8-1): Came back running in his first start since May, when he was a competitive third downstate. He made up some ground that day, which isn’t something he’d shown much of an affinity for prior to his long layoff. A logical step forward would give him a chance at a bit of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $978

Much was made about Saratoga no longer accepting cash for food and drink purchases ahead of the track’s opening Thursday. If you’re on horse racing Twitter, chances are you saw a whole bunch of complaining about it.

I’m going to middle this, which is undoubtedly going to be met with some people saying I’m killing horse racing and others saying I’m lobbying for a job with NYRA. No, a no-cash experience isn’t ideal, and betting with cash without being able to use your winnings on a sandwich 50 feet away isn’t ideal. Having said that, I saw an actual argument saying that refusing to accept cash is an assault on American freedom, which…no. Just no.

I wish NYRA didn’t make that decision. However, it’s not like that’s going to significantly dampen the on-track experience, either.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This section started not with a bang, but a whimper. Neither key exacta horse was anywhere close in the lid-lifter, and I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Most of the card seems chalky, but I love the seventh, which seems like a true “grass grab bag.” I’ll play $2 exactas keying #7 MAURITIUS and #9 HEATHGUARD on top of those two, #11 OUR COUNTRY, and #12 FRONT MAN, and I’ll use all four in an additional $1 box.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the Grand Slam. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Thursday: 1-for-11
Meet: 1-for-11

Best Bet: Star of Mystery, Race 9
Longshot: Heathguard, Race 7

R1

Chanteuse
Martingale
Reliable Lady

#2 CHANTEUSE (6/5): Set the early pace in her debut, where she ultimately faded to finish fifth behind a talented stablemate. Seven furlongs is a tricky distance to debut at, and I’m expecting a step forward at second asking for powerhouse connections; #5 MARTINGAME (9/2): May have needed her last-out effort, which was her first outing in nearly five months. Chad Brown shipping horses in from Monmouth used to be a red flag, but he’s won with many horses that fit this profile in the past few years; #3 RELIABLE LADY (7/2): Comes back to the dirt after trying turf for the first time. She’s run fairly well on dirt in the past, and she could move forward if she overcomes the gate issues that have arisen in all three prior outings.

R2

Stormquist
Paschal Moon
Giant’s Fire

#5 STORMQUIST (5/2): Cuts back to a sprint and drops down in class after several starts against optional claiming foes. This restricted claiming event looks much weaker, and anything close to her two or three-back tries would make him tough to beat; #3 PASCHAL MOON (4-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a solid second downstate. He was claimed out of that race by a barn that doesn’t claim many runners, and it’s fair to assume this one has found his friends; #4 GIANT’S FIRE (4-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but exits several fast heats against higher-level competition. His lone win came at this 6 1/2-furlong distance, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip.

R3

Military Road (MTO)
Repole entry
Tom Collins

REPOLE ENTRY (6/5): Either runner could win this. #1 STEADFAST RESOLVE goes second off the bench after making a middle move last time out, while #1A STORM READY has improved in all three starts to date and has posted several very strong speed figures; #5 TOM COLLINS (5-1): Hasn’t run for nine months, but gets Lasix for his 3-year-old debut and has plenty of back form. One of his 2023 efforts was a close-up third behind the classy Agate Road, and he’s a contender if he’s ready to fire off the bench; #4 PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a world-class turf pedigree. He’s by Dubawi and out of a Galileo mare, so he’s got every right to be a runner. The question is, should we read anything into a lack of works beyond four furlongs?

R4

What’s Up Bro (MTO)
Twenty Six Black
Yarrow

#4 TWENTY SIX BLACK (3-1): Is one of several horses coming in off of a race here last month. He was second that day despite a wide trip, and he’s yet to run a bad race with Lasix. He’ll run with it again here, and that makes him a formidable foe; #6 YARROW (3-1): Has never finished worse than third in five local starts, including a close-up third last time out. This is his third start off the bench, and soon-to-be Hall of Famer Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement; #7 TUNISIAN SPRING (2-1): Had some traffic trouble last time out and may appreciate the outside draw in this event. His late-2023 form is very strong, and he’ll have a chance if he can channel it.

R5

Saffa’s Day
Funny Joke
Cold as Hell

#9 SAFFA’S DAY (5/2): Takes a significant class drop that’s simply too hard to ignore. He was claimed for $80,000 two starts ago, runs for a quarter of that tag here, and could be in a prime position given his tactical speed; #5 FUNNY JOKE (8-1): Made her first start in more than a year last month and didn’t disgrace himself. He set a fast pace in the slop before fading, and he should be much more sharp in his second start back; #8 COLD AS HELL (12-1): Merits a look underneath at a price given his back class. He’s spent this season going up against allowance foes, and his last start for a tag in late-2023 saw him run a strong second for three times the price he’s in for today.

R6

Classic Time
Reteko
King’s Leap

#10 CLASSIC TIME (5/2): Just missed in an open maiden race last time out, one where he didn’t break well and still nearly found a way to win. He draws well in his second start, which is a restricted event that sure looks like a less-imposing spot; #2 RETEKO (9/2): Debuts after a strong series of downstate drills, and while this barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, there’s plenty to like. That last drill was the third-fastest of 109 at the distance, and first-call rider Javier Castellano has the call; #6 KING’S LEAP (10-1): Comes in from Finger Lakes for a barn who knows how to ride down the Thruway and get the money. This one sports a few bullet drills ahead of his unveiling, and while the pedigree says he may want more ground, the presence of Finger Lakes-based jockey Luis Perez may be a clue he’s ready to run right away.

R7

Gun Maestro (MTO)
Heathguard
Mauritius

#9 HEATHGUARD (15-1): Has shown enough for me to break a long streak of chalk or near-chalk on top. He ran well when fourth last time out and goes second off a short break in a spot that sure seems to set up for a closer like him to come pick up the pieces; #7 MAURITIUS (4-1): Broke a long drought with a wire-to-wire score last time out against restricted claiming company. That stretch, though, featured several agonizing near-misses, and when this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay in good form; #11 OUR COUNTRY (8-1): Hasn’t run in nine months but is a contender if he’s ready to run. He was last seen rallying to win a two-turn turf route at Aqueduct, and that day’s rider, Joel Rosario, sees fit to saddle up in this wide-open event.

R8

Miss Justify
Bells Beach
Striker Has Dial

#1 MISS JUSTIFY (3-1): Gets the benefit of an inside draw in the Wilton, which is contested out of the one-mile Wilson chute. Inside speed usually does very well at this route, and if her last-out score is any indication, she’ll be prominent from the jump beneath top jockey Flavien Prat; #6 BELLS BEACH (5/2): Takes a big step up in class, but that’s not surprising given the ease with which she graduated out of the maiden ranks last month. She cruised home by nearly six lengths at Churchill Downs in a race that came at this distance, and a repeat effort would give her a big chance; #4 STRIKER HAS DIAL (3-1): Splashed home to win at first asking before running into Ways and Means here last month. She did, however, run a credible second and beat the third-place finisher by more than six lengths, and experience at this quirky route could prove valuable.

R9

Star of Mystery
Pipsy
Baraye

#10 STAR OF MYSTERY (9/5): Takes a significant drop in class, which is a bit weird considering the Coronation Cup is a $150,000 stakes race. However, she most recently ran third behind the freakish Cogburn in the Grade 1 Jaipur after a near-miss in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. Simply put, if she’s right, the race is for second; #4 PIPSY (6-1): Almost certainly bounced last time out in the Tepin, which was probably a bit longer than she wanted to go. Her two-back win in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly was excellent, and the presence of all-world jockey Frankie Dettori cannot be ignored; #8 BARAYE (10-1): Has run two smashing races in Kentucky ahead of a return to stakes action. Most recently, she topped an overmatched field by nearly six lengths in an off-the-turf event, and she certainly figures to be prominent from the jump here.

R10

Adventurous Spirit
Over and Ollie
Guile

#8 ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT (5/2): Drops in for a tag for the first time in the Friday finale and merits plenty of respect. This one has been competitive against maiden special weight foes, but the aggressive connections have no problem going down the class ladder, and this seems like a logical, tough-to-beat favorite; #7 OVER AND OLLIE (6-1): Also runs for a tag for the first time, and does so in his second start off the bench. He has back form going long on the turf, and I’m expecting a return to that sort of level here after a dud last time out at Churchill; #11 GUILE (12-1): Doesn’t draw well here, but this is one that has every right to love the turf. He’s by Blame and out of a Distorted Humor mare, and he’s shown this sort of distance is well within his scope.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s only been a month since I was last here, but a lot has happened since then. The summer meet at the Alameda County Fair has come and gone, and I’ve also been fortunate to do a bunch of great stuff with the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s new North American simulcast feed. If you’re up late Saturday or early Sunday, check out closing day at Sha Tin.

Also, I’m officially entering the “tout” world at Winners and Whiners, the site I’ve been working on since coming to Raketech in November. During the Saratoga meet, I’ll have betting strategies for one multi-race bet each day, at $5 per day. Today, it’s a midday double, largely because both races are on dirt and should (I hope…) go with close to the fields we see in the program despite an ominous weather forecast.

If you’re new to this section: Every day, I’ll have bets on Saratoga action, complete with a mythical $1,000 bankroll to draw from. I’ll also have this space to expound on a few things. Let’s get to Opening Day!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m diving right in with action on the opener. I’ll play $3 exactas using #2 BOLD VICTORY (my longshot of the day) and #5 I AM THE LAW on top of those two, #6 ACCIDENTAL HERO, and #8 ROCCO STRONG. I’ll also box my top two horses (Bold Victory and I Am the Law) in an additional $2 bet, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: All That Magic, Race 4
Longshot: Bold Victory, Race 1

R1

I Am the Law
Bold Victory
Rocco Strong

#5 I AM THE LAW (3-1): Has been running against far, far tougher competition for most of his career and drops way down the class ladder for the summer lid-lifter. Add in that he’s hit the board in nine of 10 starts over wet tracks (with two wins), and he looks like a very legitimate favorite; #2 BOLD VICTORY (20-1): Stretches back out to two turns, which is clearly his preferred route of ground, and should have plenty of speed to run at. There’s a possibility his best days are behind him, but a return to his desired trip, a favorable race shape, and a big price all mean I need to use him; #8 ROCCO STRONG (4-1): Is another with plenty of back class and an affinity for wet tracks. He won very impressively in the mud earlier this year at Aqueduct and has faced stakes or stakes-quality opposition in each of his last four outings.

R2

Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Aspen Grove
Madaket entry

#4 ASPEN GROVE (7/5): Looms very large in the unlikely event this stays on the turf. Draw a line through her dud in the Grade 1 New York last time out, and her career looks far, far better. If we’re still on the grass, this daughter of Justify is strictly the one to beat; MADAKET ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A AVENUE NIEL, who raced well three times last year before going to the sidelines. Her September 2023 allowance score was a good effort, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride for Christophe Clement; #3 BE YOUR BEST (3-1): Looked like a budding star in 2022, when she won two races here as a 2-year-old (including the P.G. Johnson Stakes). She hasn’t won since, but she drops into the allowance/optional claiming ranks for the first time and could conceivably wake up.

R3

Miss Maximus
Needed
Neigh Jude

#4 MISS MAXIMUS (4-1): Has shown early speed against much better horses and takes a significant drop in class. After her last two outings against straight maidens, she now runs for a tag against state-breds, and I think there’s a chance she gets very comfortable from the jump; #10 NEEDED (5-1): Makes her first start for Linda Rice in this spot, which doubles as her first outing since January. The best race of her career to date was a close-up second in the mud late last year, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to go; #3 NEIGH JUDE (7/2): Finished a distant second downstate last time out and has a history of gate trouble. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Kelly Breen, and perhaps there’s room for improvement in what will be just her fifth lifetime start.

R4

All That Magic
Bustin Bay (MTO)
Madaket entry

#8 ALL THAT MAGIC (8-1): Gets Lasix for the first time in three starts this year, and I’m expecting that to make a major difference. All but one of her six career victories have come with Lasix, and she attracts Luis Saez in her third start off the bench; MADAKET ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A LADY MIA, a filly that showed she can run on soft turf in some of her overseas starts. She’s run just once since October, but that was a solid, winning effort in an allowance at Aqueduct; #4 RUN FOR THE HILLS (2-1): Is another getting Lasix back after a few tries against stakes foes. One of those efforts was a close-up third over yielding going at Churchill Downs, and she’s a contender if they stay on the lawn and a speed duel ensues.

R5

New York Scrappy
Concorde Spirit
Brown Eyed Cat

#1 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (3-1): Had an eventful trip in his debut, when he ran third despite several instances of trouble. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and this one goes turf-to-dirt and adds blinkers for a trainer whose runners tend to improve at second asking; #9 CONCORDE SPIRIT (6-1): Was a one-paced third in his unveiling and is another that has a right to take a step forward. This regally-bred son of Uncle Mo is trained by Bill Mott and has several strong workouts on his tab ahead of this event; #7 BROWN EYED CAT (9/2): Is one of two first-time starters trained by Bruce Levine, and he’s got a solid pedigree and back-to-back bullet drills. Add in the presence of jockey Javier Castellano and top off-track influence Stormy Atlantic on the dam’s side, and you’ve got an intriguing horse.

R6

Will Not Be Swayed
Strong State
My Lady Bae

#2 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (7/2): Debuts in the first 2-year-old race of the meet and sports several strong gate works at Keeneland for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. Prat will be aboard, which is another reason to think this daughter of Preakness winner War of Will could be a runner; #1 STRONG STATE (5/2): Had plenty of trouble in her debut last month, where she blew the break but still rallied to finish second. She could certainly improve, but the inside draw is a concern and the pedigree indicates she may want even more distance; #7 MY LADY BAE (12-1): Merits a look at a price given her strong win-early pedigree. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, her second dam won at first asking, and this one has been working consistently for Rob Atras, who boasts a strong 20% win rate with first-time starters.

R7

Speightful Lily (MTO)
Mosienko (MTO)
Solib

#3 SOLIB (4-1): Came from way, way back to be second last time out at a bit of a price. I do think she’s a bit better on dirt (which could come in handy here), but she’s also shown an ability to sprint on turf, and her turf record looks far better if you toss her two route tries here last summer; #7 MARCO T. (3-1): Cleared her first-level allowance condition last time out and has won two of her last three starts. The lone loss came in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly against much better horses, and this is probably the right level; #1 IM JUST KIDDIN (5/2): Is another that probably wants no part of two turns. She’s probably had some issues given just one start since September, but she’s a contender if she’s ready to run (and if this stays on turf).

R8

Just Music (MTO)
Crushed Ice (MTO)
Elle Est Forte

#9 ELLE EST FORTE (7/2): Has run several big races for trainer Ray Handal since being claimed here last summer. Most recently, she was a good second downstate, and if this stays on turf, she gets a tepid top selection; #4 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (5-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. She goes second off the bench here, and the runner-up from her last race came back to win at next asking; #8 MORE MANGO (15-1): Ran a big one to be second against starter allowance foes last time out, when she was 48-1 and led in deep-stretch. She’s run fairly well in a few different turf races, though, so if this stays on, she’s not without a shot.

R9

Blazing Sevens
Classic Catch
Rocket Can

#7 BLAZING SEVENS (7/2): Found the Grade 1 Met Mile way too tough, and while this is a classy optional claimer, the waters are much more shallow here. He gets Lasix back in this spot, and he won the Grade 1 Champagne earlier in his career over the type of off track he may see here; #9 CLASSIC CATCH (6-1): Is a grinder in a race with plenty of early speed, and the race shape may work to his benefit. His last-out effort at Churchill was a heartbreaking second, and he doesn’t have to move forward much (if at all) to be a major player; #6 ROCKET CAN (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 3 Holy Bull and went on to run ninth in the Kentucky Derby. We’ve only seen him once since, but that was a professional score at Oaklawn Park, and he’s another possible beneficiary of the likely frontrunner-heavy race shape.

R10

Viggiedal
Long Neck Paula
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#10 VIGGIEDAL (9/2): Never looked like a loser in her debut, where this $350,000 auction purchase went wire-to-wire and romped by five lengths. She draws well in the Schuylerville Stakes and could give trainer Steve Asmussen his fourth win in this event; #9 LONG NECK PAULA (8-1): Was the likely favorite in the Astoria last month but scratched due to a bizarre set of circumstances. She’s back, has worked well ahead of this race, and her absence from the previous race may, bizarrely, mean a bigger price here; #6 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (6-1): Showed some grit in her unveiling, when she prevailed downstate for powerhouse connections. The pedigree says the stretchout in distance absolutely won’t be a problem, and it’s notable when you see a first-time starter pass other horses late.

R11

Houlton (MTO)
Kick a Buck
Vincita

#9 KICK A BUCK (9/5): Is strictly the one to beat if the Thursday finale stays on the turf. He’s been running against straight maidens to this point in his career, and while his last-out dud is concerning, anything close to his two or three-back efforts likely puts him in the winner’s circle; #3 VINCITA (12-1): Tries turf for the first time here and is bred to love it. The connections have tried to run him on the grass multiple times, and that’s often a clue. Add in that he’s not facing any world-beaters, and the 12-1 price looks enticing; #2 GET IT TO MATTHEW (20-1): Is another trying turf for the first time, and while I’m not sure he wants two turns, the pedigree is all-grass. This one is by Mendelssohn and out of a Tapit mare, and he could be sitting on a move forward second off the bench.