THE DARK DAY FILES: A Weary Traveler Heads To Saratoga

I’ve always really liked air travel, and I’ve spent the last few years trying to figure out why. Amidst the staffing challenges, the pandemic challenges, the inflation challenges, and the “today’s your lucky day to get jerked around by the transportation gods” challenges, it can be tough to love flying.

After an eventful day spent winging my way cross-country to attend the Racing and Gaming Conference, see my family, and watch horses turn left at Saratoga Race Course, I think I’ve figured it out.

I do some of my most active thinking on planes.

I try to avoid paying for the overpriced airplane wi-fi that cuts in and out. When you’re cut off from the technological luxuries we take for granted every day, you’re left with nothing but your thoughts, especially if you can’t sleep on planes (and I usually can’t).

My trip started at 3:30 am Pacific time Sunday, when I left my new apartment in Northern California’s East Bay with a suitcase in one hand, a carry-on bag in another, and about a dozen boxes left unpacked and stowed away in a spare bedroom so my cat can’t wreak havoc on what’s inside. It included arriving at San Francisco International Airport at 5 am and falling victim to a 7 am flight being delayed twice and, ultimately, cancelled.

Despite this, my dad insisted on waiting for me at Albany’s airport. He’d originally planned to pick me up at 6:40 pm. He did so at around midnight, despite an impassioned attempt on my part to let him off the hook so he didn’t have to drive from the Hudson Valley, to Albany, to Saratoga Springs, and back to the Hudson Valley in the dead of night. Say what you will about us Champagnes, but one thing’s for sure: We show up.

(Love you, Dad.)

In the meantime, I watched the first six races from Saratoga. Fire Sword made me look great, bringing home nice scores in both the wallet and The Pink Sheet’s bankroll section when he wired the field in the fourth. I gave horse racing Twitter something to do by rounding up a few dozen followers to guess how much my breakfast cost. I made conversation with a few people scrambling as best they could, just like me.

“Where are you headed?”

“Albany.”

“You work there?”

“Sort of.”

I got re-routed to go through Chicago, my 6’5”, 235-pound frame stuffed between two poor souls by a customer service agent who seemed just a bit too happy when she said, “middle seats only.” My day didn’t get better when I pulled out the tray table to mark up Wednesday’s Saratoga past performances and lowered my head for a look at the same time the 5’4” person in front of me decided to recline her seat.

I got through most of Wednesday’s card. In the seventh, there’s a horse named Oh Donna. That’s my mom’s name. She’s planning to be with me at the track Wednesday, and I half-expected the person in front of me to recline the seat back into my head again for effect.

(I love you, Mom. See you Monday night. Table for two, that’s T-W-O, at Morrissey’s.)

I must’ve been scribbling pretty hard, because I got the attention of the Dutchman sitting near the window. We talked for maybe 15 minutes about what I was doing, how I did it, and the machinations behind it.

“Do you gamble, too?”

“Sure.”

“Do you do well?”

“At Saratoga? Better than most.”

We exchanged contact information. He was headed to Chicago for a meeting before flying back to Amsterdam. Nice fellow, I thought as I plowed through an Italian beef sandwich at O’Hare Airport’s L terminal. It wasn’t particularly good, but there was a lot of it.

I sat down next to a family with two college-aged kids accompanying their parents. An older sister was taking great joy in teasing her younger brother.

“I think she knows she’s right,” I said while leaning over, “and she’s never going to let you forget it.”

My interjections vary in how they go over, which drives friends and loved ones insane, but on this occasion, the two targets began howling with laughter. I’ve got an older sister, too. She’s an equity partner at a major law firm, is the toughest act to follow in the history of mankind, and is raising three kids, two of whom will make their maiden voyage to Saratoga this week.

I passed some time reading a book called “Gods at Play.” It’s written by Tom Callahan, a longtime sportswriter who has spent time with pretty much every renowned athlete of the last 60 years, and there’s a section on Roberto Clemente that hit me like a ton of bricks.

Clemente was seen as an egotistical jerk by many. He was also arguably the best all-around player in the National League, with a sniper rifle for an arm and a body that seemed to creak itself into just the right positions to spray line drives around the ballpark.

“The ability was true,” Callahan writes. “The confidence was fairly true. It was the bravado that was false. As great as everyone knew him to be, he felt undervalued—and he was. As unlikely as it sounds, his principal feature was a kind of loneliness.”

As I write this, I’m tied for second in the all-media handicapping standings. I’m five wins back of John Shapazian from The Saratoga Special, who I topped last year with the best summer of my career in horse racing. This weekend was a really good one for me, one that saw me climb back into contention in a contest that has seemingly picked up a bit of interest on social media.

I love this game, I love Saratoga, and I love it when my opinions help people make money. There were things said and whispered about me following last year’s meet that I haven’t forgotten. Let me be clear: If you think for one second that I’m going away anytime soon, you’re sorely mistaken.

I’m in Saratoga all week. If you’re at the Racing and Gaming Conference Tuesday and Wednesday, or at the track Wednesday through Saturday, come say hi.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/14/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $848.95

When you read this Sunday morning, chances are I’ll already be on a plane coming east. Thanks to the wonderful folks at Catena Media, I’m headed to this week’s Racing and Gaming Conference, then taking a few days of vacation to see family and, of course, watch horses turn left in-person at one of the sport’s last remaining cathedrals.

I’m an easy guy to find (I’m 6’5”, so many times the answer is, “just look up”). If you’ll be at the conference or at the track this coming week/weekend, come say hi! Saratoga’s a truly special place, and it’s always exciting to make the cross-country trek from California to enjoy it in-person.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Mount Athos lost all chance at the start of the second race and ran exceptionally well just to hit the board. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to the fourth and try to beat the 7/5 morning line favorite. #2 COST BASIS isn’t without a shot, but I prefer #7 FIRE SWORD, especially at that one’s likely price. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that runner and key him in $5 doubles starting in the fourth that end with #2 MRS. GREEN and #9 PARENTS PRIDE in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Big Invasion, Race 9
Longshot: Shesjustanicegirl, Race 2

R1

Kbcya Later
Deccan Prince
Rock Chalk

#5 KBCYA LATER: Has improved in each of his three career outings and boasts a pedigree that says he may like the turf. He’s by Broken Vow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and was third behind an impressive runaway winner earlier in the meet; #1 DECCAN PRINCE: Flopped going two turns last time out and cuts back to a sprint distance here. His debut at Belmont going short was fine, and a repeat of that effort gives him a chance; #8 ROCK CHALK: Debuts for George Weaver and has a right to be precocious. His dam was a first-out winner, and that one is kin to eight other winners, too. The downstate bullet on July 30th is notable, and he’s got as good a shot as any in this wide-open lid-lifter.

R2

Conseillante
Shesjustanicegirl
Moma

#7 CONSEILLANTE: Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, and she’s got a pedigree that’s very, very interesting. She’s a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Paradise Woods and stakes-winning turf sprinter Forest Chatter, and her dam is kin to multiple Grade 3-winning grass runner Tajaaweed; #6 SHESJUSTANICEGIRL: Is by Justify, out of a Galileo mare, and may be far too big a price given that pedigree. This $170,000 yearling purchase is out of a half-sister to champion Escena, and if she runs to her bloodlines, that 12-1 morning line price could be a massive overlay; #8 MOMA: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and is another bred to be any kind. This daughter of Uncle Mo is out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Awesome Maria, who hails from the female family of fellow Grade 1 victors Discreet Cat and Discreetly Mine.

R3

Big Q
Prairie Fire
Shadolamo

#4 BIG Q: Takes a big drop in class after several tries against optional claiming company. Her last effort came against stakes-quality turf sprinters and is a total throw-out. Her dirt races earlier this year were very strong, and she hits me as a logical favorite; #1 PRAIRIE FIRE: Was claimed back by Charlton Baker, who had some success with her earlier this season. She topped similar-level foes two starts ago downstate, and that day’s runner-up has come back to run well twice here so far this summer; #3 SHADOLAMO: Won a race against slightly higher-level competition three starts back, and there are reasons to draw lines through her last two clunkers. She flopped in the mud two back, didn’t take to the turf last time out, and has a right to improve now that she’s doing what she wants.

R4

Fire Sword
Cost Basis
Ebben

#7 FIRE SWORD: Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start since November. The 1-2 finishers from that race came right back to win at next asking, and it sure seems like this one has the ability to dictate terms from the jump; #2 COST BASIS: Is another exiting a key race, having chased Mr Phil and Jaxon Traveler back in April. He’s been off four months, but his best race could certainly win this and he merits respect if he’s ready to go; #6 EBBEN: Was claimed by Tom Amoss in mid-June and makes his first start for that outfit here. This spot didn’t come up light, but he’s shown an ability to run well at this distance and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

R5

Mrs. Green
Parents Pride
Yamas

#2 MRS. GREEN: Did everything but win earlier this summer, when she fell by a nose in her first start at the Spa. She’s exited some pretty classy races, and this may be a bunch she can beat in order to earn her diploma; #9 PARENTS PRIDE: Boasts a stellar bottom-side pedigree, being out of a stakes-winning turfer that’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Real Solution. Sire Maclean’s Music can certainly throw runners, and while the far outside post isn’t ideal, she’s been working well ahead of her unveiling and shows some promise; #7 YAMAS: Debuted with a fourth-place finish in the same race my top pick exits. This barn’s first-out numbers aren’t great, so I’m expecting a significant step forward, especially given the rider switch to Luis Saez.

R6

Firing Bullets
Twin Mischief
Chocolate Gelato

#10 FIRING BULLETS: Has been doing just that ahead of her debut, one where she’s drawn a cushy outside post. She hammered for $210,000 at auction earlier this season, is a half sister to stakes winner I Get It, and certainly looks like she’s got lots of ability; #6 TWIN MISCHIEF: Has the Steve Asmussen work pattern I really like, with a strong two-back move followed by a more recent slower, maintenance-style work. She traces back to the classy Lakeway on the bottom of her pedigree and has a right to be a runner; #8 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Flopped at odds of 1/2 earlier this summer, when she was a one-paced third without any real excuses. She does have an experience edge over most of this field, though, and it’s not like that race came back slowly on speed figures.

R7

Caragate (MTO)
Spungie
Home for Christmas

#3 SPUNGIE: Has every right to need this event after a year-long layoff, but she’s definitely the one to beat if she’s ready to run. Her speed figures from last year tower over the rest of this bunch, and Bill Mott can certainly get horses ready off of long breaks like this one; #2 HOME FOR CHRISTMAS: Seems to have meshed with jockey Joel Rosario, who piloted her to a wire-to-wire score two back and rode her to a solid second a few weeks ago. Her tactical speed is a real asset, and she figures to be a big part of the early pace; #6 OUT OF SIGHT: Was inexplicably rated last time in the same race my second choice exits. She likely wants to be up closer, which explains the rider switch, and while I think she prefers the downstate venues, her best race puts her right there.

R8

Brattle House
Betsy Blue
Sweet Willemina

#5 BRATTLE HOUSE: Has yet to finish out of the exacta in six starts to date and has looked very impressive so far this season. Her two runaway wins at Belmont going a bit longer were strong, and I can’t see anyone keeping her honest early on here; #4 BETSY BLUE: Is another consistent runner, with six wins and 14 top-three finishes in 15 tries. She most recently flew late to finish a close second against similar-quality foes, and she’d benefit from another runner going with the likely favorite early; #6 SWEET WILLEMINA: Comes in off of two wins in a row at Parx and gets a major class test here. However, Frankie Pennington sees fit to make the trip up from Pennsylvania for just one mount, which I see as a sign of confidence.

R9

Big Invasion
Sky and Sand
Cadamosto

#2 BIG INVASION: Has won five turf sprints in a row and will likely be an odds-on favorite in the Mahony. He earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 3 Quick Call last month. Anything close to that sort of effort would mean the race is for second; #3 SKY AND SAND: Gets a rider switch to Jose Ortiz for this event, one that could move him forward at a price. His three-back win at Churchill Downs was solid, and I think he’s got a chance to hit the board and spice up the vertical exotics; #1 CADAMOSTO: Is this race’s wild card. He runs here after tackling some of Europe’s best turf sprinters, and he was a very credible fourth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. However, they don’t necessarily breed for sprinter speed over there, and this race came up very strong for the level.

R10

Cryo (MTO)
Reckless Spirit
Brazillionaire

#3 RECKLESS SPIRIT: Ran second in a race that’s turned out to be a key one. That day’s winner and third-place finisher came back to win at next asking, and it seems like this 5-year-old gelding is in top form for trainer H. James Bond; #2 BRAZILLIONAIRE: Has won two in a row and stretches out to two turns first off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart. I’m not quite sure two turns is in his wheelhouse, but he’s gotten pretty good of late, so it’s logical to take a shot here while protecting a new acquisition; #1 WAR STRATEGY: Found new life at Woodbine, where he’s run well in a pair of 2022 outings. He tries winners for the first time, and his connections seem to have found a fairly soft spot for the level.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/13/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $873.95

Legendary college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian once said the NCAA was so mad at Kentucky, they put Cleveland State on probation. What came out Friday isn’t quite that, but it’s not far off.

Dylan Davis was suspended seven race days for his role in an incident Wednesday, one where Eric Cancel and his mount fell turning for home. Repeated viewings of that race bear out that the accident was a “wrong place, wrong time” situation. A short suspension would’ve been appropriate.

Seven days, however, seems overly harsh, especially considering the behavior that goes unpunished by stewards on a daily basis. I wrote a few days ago that riding is going beyond “aggressive” and into “reckless” with alarming regularity. Stiffer punishments are a deterrent, but this isn’t an instance in which one should’ve been applied.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Chiara did indeed scratch, which was unfortunate, and my remaining exactas fizzled. I dropped $4.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My best bet of the day comes in the second race, and I’m against the morning line favorite in the third. As such, most of my action comes in the form of $10 doubles that single #3 MOUNT ATHOS in the second and use #1 NO PAYNE and #3 BLAZING STAR in the third. Additionally, I’ll play an early, 50-cent Pick Four starting in the second that reads as follows: 3 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,2,5,7,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mount Athos, Race 2
Longshot: No Payne, Race 3

R1

I’m Very Busy
Full Coverage
Torigo

#3 I’M VERY BUSY: Debuts for Chad Brown in what hits me as a wide-open turf route for 2-year-old maidens. He fetched $135,000 at auction, is kin to four winners, and his dam is a half-sister to champion Answer Lively (plus a full sister to stakes winner Kiss Me Twice); #1 FULL COVERAGE: Boasts a world-class turf pedigree and has every right to be a runner. This son of Kitten’s Joy is out of a Grade 3 winner on turf, and his female family includes the dam of runners such as Ironicus and On Leave; #7 TORIGO: Debuts for a barn whose routers often need a race or two to get going. However, this son of Munnings is out of a stakes-winning turf runner, one who’s a half-sister to Grade 1-placed grass runner Tamahere.

R2

Mount Athos
Rice entry
Cold as Hell

#3 MOUNT ATHOS: Has run well against starter allowance goes and drops in for a tag for the first time in a while. His last race for a tag was an impressive win at this distance, and it came with this rider on board; RICE ENTRY: I prefer #1 LEDDY, who gets wheeled back pretty quickly after a winning effort earlier this month. While he runs for a higher claiming tag, note the $25,000 claimer he won wasn’t restricted, while this one is for non-winners of three; #7 COLD AS HELL: Has lived up to his name, with no wins since May of 2021, but this is the weakest bunch he’s tackled in quite some time. The shallower waters could be to his liking, and the presence of Luis Saez can’t be ignored.

R3

Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Blazing Star
No Payne

#3 BLAZING STAR: Hasn’t done much running in three stateside starts, but she drops in for a tag here and may not need to improve much from her most recent outing earlier this summer. Saez hops aboard, and I expect her to be prominent early; #1 NO PAYNE: Exits first-level allowance races for state-breds and runs for a tag for the first time. Her lone win came at this route last August, and perhaps a return to upstate New York will put her on the right track; #6 RIGBY: Was third at this level and route in the first few days of the meet, and she’s run well since dropping to this level two back. She’s shown some flexibility, which should give Irad Ortiz, Jr., plenty of options.

R4

Gulfport
Damon’s Mound
Owen’s Leap

#4 GULFPORT: Has gone 2-for-2 with wins by a total of nearly 20 lengths and looms large in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in taking the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs, and he could be sitting on another huge performance here; #2 DAMON’S MOUND: Routed a field of maidens in his debut last month and has since been training forwardly at Colonial Downs. Gabriel Saez makes the trip to ride, and he stands to benefit if my top pick misfires; #5 OWEN’S LEAP: Was second in the Bashford Manor and seems best of the rest here. He adds blinkers for Tom Amoss, draws favorably, and has shown an ability to pass others late.

R5

Sweet Mystery
Tosconova Beauty
Captainsdaughter

#2 SWEET MYSTERY: Debuted in a key race behind two other next-out winners, and then made it a trio with a come-from-behind win at second asking. Jose Lezcano rides back, and there should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for her late kick; #1 TOSCONOVA BEAUTY: Has won three of four starts this year at Finger Lakes and ships in for this state-bred event. Her regular rider comes along for the journey, and she fits on speed figures, too; #8 CAPTAINSDAUGHTER: Hasn’t won since October but has hit the board in seven of her eight starts since that victory (with the lone misfire coming in a turf race). She was third going two turns earlier in the meet, and this seven-furlong trip should suit her a bit better.

R6

Neuro
Golden Hornet
Sheriff Bianco

#3 NEURO: Came back running when second in his first start since November earlier this summer. He beat several rivals that also show up in this spot, and Javier Castellano is riding as well as any jockey in the colony right now; #5 GOLDEN HORNET: Ships in for Larry Rivelli after a wire-to-wire score in his debut at Colonial. Turf is an unknown, but his dam is a full sister to 2-year-old turf stakes winner Miss Southern Miss, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he took to the grass; #7 SHERIFF BIANCO: Enjoyed a perfect trip to top claimers two back and was a close-up third in the same race my top pick exits. We know he’ll be prominent early, but the same can be said for many others in this field, and this one has genuine stamina concerns that prevent me from being too enthusiastic to play him at a short price.

R7

Black Rain
General Jim
Surprise Payoff

#9 BLACK RAIN: Wasn’t an expensive auction buy at just $32,000, but dam Sustained was a runner, and she’s thrown a pair of stakes winners to date. This son of Connect boasts a few strong gate drills for Todd Pletcher, and the post towards the outside of this field is a positive; #7 GENERAL JIM: Hammered for $850,000 last September at Keeneland and is working well ahead of his unveiling. His dam is kin to a pair of graded stakes winners, and several local half-mile works hint that he’s got plenty of potential; #3 SURPRISE PAYOFF: Fetched $170,000 at auction with a pedigree that looks much better upon close examination. Second dam Weekend in Seattle is a full sister to champion A.P. Indy, and dam Bold Lady is a half-sister to Travers runner-up Mambo in Seattle. Add in a few strong works, and there’s plenty to like at a big price.

R8

Portfolio Company
Mackillop
Ohtwoohthreefive

#1 PORTFOLIO COMPANY: Has been running exclusively against stakes company since breaking his maiden here last summer and should appreciate the class relief this spot offers. He ran the talented Annapolis to a head in last year’s Grade 2 Pilgrim, and he has the speed to make the rail draw an asset; #13 MACKILLOP: Needs a scratch to run but merits respect if he draws in off the also-eligible list. He’s a new gelding that won going two turns at first asking in March, and a return to such a configuration could be exactly what he wants; #8 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE: Has been kept out of the winner’s circle for nearly a year but is another that’s been chasing some very good horses. He was fourth in a minor stakes race at Monmouth last time out, and he’s been working steadily since coming to Saratoga a few weeks ago.

R9

Pletcher entry
Final Approach
Leading Contender

PLETCHER ENTRY: Both #1 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL and #1A EXPRESSMAN can win, and there’s strength in numbers. The former, however, sold for $750,000 last spring and is out of a mare that’s a full sister to Belmont winner Ruler On Ice and a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Champagne d’Oro; #8 FINAL APPROACH: Has earned several bullets ahead of her debut for the legendary D. Wayne Lukas. It’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, since he’s a 4-year-old that hasn’t run yet, but if he runs to his works, he should be a handful; #2 LEADING CONTENDER: Is another first-time starter with a strong work tab, and anything Chad Brown sends out merits a long look. He’s a son of world-class sire Gun Runner, and his dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter that had plenty of talent herself.

R10

Regal Glory
Masen
Get Smokin

#3 REGAL GLORY: Has won four in a row and will look to take down the boys in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. She doesn’t face any world-beaters in this spot, and anything close to her sensational win in the Grade 1 Just A Game would almost certainly be enough; #4 MASEN: Is a nose away from being 3-for-3 in the U.S. and most recently won the Grade 3 Poker downstate. He didn’t beat a tremendous field that day, but he’s got enough speed to work out a perfect trip beneath Flavien Prat; #5 GET SMOKIN: Came up empty after pressing a legitimate pace in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple a few weeks ago. However, the smaller field could mean a chance for him to get comfortable. If that happens, he’s good enough to lead them a long way and hang on for a piece of it.

R11

Greg’s Honor
Calloway Peak
Left On Boylston

#7 GREG’S HONOR: Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker, whose numbers with new acquisitions are very solid. He was a fast-closing second in a similar spot at Belmont, and I think there’s a chance he’s figuring things out midway through his 3-year-old season; #9 CALLOWAY PEAK: Was fourth in the race my top pick exits and was even further back in the early going. Carlos Martin adds blinkers, which should keep him a bit more engaged, and it’s not like my top pick blew this one’s doors off that day; #5 LEFT ON BOYLSTON: Has shown this is the right level with a pair of third-place finishes in as many starts for this claiming tag. One of those came at Aqueduct, which boasts a similar two-turn configuration, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/12/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $877.95

One of today’s stakes races is the Evan Shipman for older New York-breds. A few years ago, Diversify used this event as a springboard to the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, which he won in style for the late Rick Violette.

However, the race has been changed, and, in my opinion, not for the better. Instead of going 1 1/8 miles and starting and finishing in front of the grandstand, this field will go a mile out of the Wilson chute. On paper, there’s no reason to change this race, and the shorter distance doesn’t make it any more or less attractive.

To this point in the meet, the new chute hasn’t offended me as much as I thought it might. However, I’ve said all along that I can’t back anything which lessens two-turn dirt races at New York’s premier meet. This does that, and it does so in a way that bashes one over the head. Bad move, NYRA.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Great logic, lousy results. I thought Mr. Connecticut was very beatable in the fifth and that On Palm Sunday may get loose on the lead. Both of those hunches were correct, but I couldn’t have ever given you the big-priced horse that got the money. I dropped $29.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: It’s entirely possible, maybe even likely, that I scratch out of most of my action. However, in the event #12 CHIARA runs in the ninth, I need to play her. I’ll have a $20 win bet, and I’ll box Chiara, #3 COOLCATSNKITTENS, and #5 ELI DANCER in $2 exactas.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ny Traffic, Race 3
Longshot: Chiara, Race 9

R1

Im Just Kiddin
Nice ’n Spicy
Kingsley Creek

#1 IM JUST KIDDIN: Ran well to be second in her debut earlier this summer and goes dirt-to-turf in the Friday opener. Her pedigree suggests she’ll love the lawn, and John Kimmel trainees often get better with experience, so she hits me as a formidable favorite; #4 NICE ’N SPICY: Debuts for Mike Maker and is kin to four winners. Her dam is a half to a pair of stakes winners, and offspring of Sharp Azteca have shown plenty of precocity, so there’s reason to believe she’s well-meant; #6 KINGSLEY CREEK: Flashed speed before fading to fifth in her unveiling downstate and, like the favorite, has every right to step forward for Kimmel. The weight break is a plus, and she figures to be prominent early at a bit of a price.

R2

Run Up the Score
Regina
Pout

#2 RUN UP THE SCORE: Drops in for a tag for the first time, and there are plenty of reasons to toss her last-out clunker at Ellis Park. It was in the slop, and she went very fast early on. I think she’ll appreciate the class drop and have every right to earn the diploma for trainer Chad Brown; #6 REGINA: Probably needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first start in five months. She goes back to the dirt, attracts Jose Lezcano, and has shown she can run well at this one-mile distance; #3 POUT: Has been off more than nine months but showed a little talent as a 2-year-old, including a close-up second against similar at Churchill Downs. Nick Zito’s on an epic cold stream at the moment, but this one has races that fit and wouldn’t be a shock.

R3

Ny Traffic
Saint Selby
My Boy Tate

#6 NY TRAFFIC: Was last seen chasing Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, and with all due respect to this classy bunch of state-breds, the opposition in the John Morrissey is a far cry from that. He’s 3-for-3 against New York-bred competition over the past few years and looms very large from his outside post; #1 SAINT SELBY: Comes in off of a pair of runaway wins downstate. He has enough early speed to make the rail draw an asset, and the presence of aggressive regular rider Kendrick Carmouche is a plus; #4 MY BOY TATE: Has never been worse than third in six local starts, one of which was a second-place finish in this race last year. He’s been off since a rare clunker in March, but the effort we’ve come to expect from him gives him a big chance to earn a piece of this.

R4

Latest Edition
Queen of Lies
Cupere

#1 LATEST EDITION: Adds Lasix and retains Javier Castellano for this wide-open maiden claiming event. She had a very eventful trip last time out at Belmont and was fourth behind a next-out winner. Castellano rides back for Morley, and those two have done a lot of damage to this point in the meet; #6 QUEEN OF LIES: Runs for a tag for the first time and attracts Joel Rosario, which is a major rider switch. Two turns is a question mark, but her pedigree says she may be able to get this trip; #2 CUPERE: Was fifth in the race my top pick exits and was last early on in that event, which didn’t have a fast early pace. There seems to be at least a little bit of zip signed on here, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

R5

Khafre
I Am the Law
Commander Compton

#4 KHAFRE: Takes a big drop and returns to the dirt for what sure seems like a weak race for this level. He was second against allowance foes at Belmont in an off-the-turf race, and anything close to his best would make him tough to top; #3 I AM THE LAW: Broke his maiden two back and missed by just a neck in his first start against winners. Joel Rosario rides back for John Terranova, and at least this one seems to be going the right way, form-wise; #5 COMMANDER COMPTON: Dueled throughout to graduate last time out at Churchill Downs and faces winners for the first time. Again, this isn’t the best field for this level we’ll see all summer, and it certainly seems like they figured out he’s a speed horse last time.

R6

Mashnee Girl
Chasing Cara
Bank On Anna

#3 MASHNEE GIRL: Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open renewal of the Union Avenue. She cuts back from a route to a sprint after running third against open allowance foes. Kendrick Carmouche piloted her to a pair of wins earlier this season, and she could end a very long drought for trainer Mark Hennig; #7 CHASING CARA: Comes back to the state-bred ranks and romped two back in a race at this distance downstate. Javier Castellano rides for a small outfit, one that’s won twice already this season; #4 BANK ON ANNA: May have needed her last effort off a bit of a freshening, and that came against open company earlier this season. She won three of four before that two-month break, and she’s got back races that would make her a contender.

R7

Al Qahira
Bahamian Club
Gal in a Rush

#5 AL QAHIRA: Set the early pace in the Grade 3 Lake George last time out and takes a significant class drop. In doing so, she also gets Lasix, which isn’t allowed in graded stakes races. Add in that she may be getting better with experience, and I think she’ll be tough; #2 BAHAMIAN CLUB: Ran a clunker in her first outing since February last time out, but has every right to step forward here beneath new rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. She won her debut going two turns, which is far from easy to do; #3 GAL IN A RUSH: Has never crossed the wire first but always seems to fire. She was second in a stakes race at Woodbine last time out, and her pedigree says this two-turn route won’t be an issue.

R8

Bankit
Tiergan
Market Alert

#1 BANKIT: Headlines the Evan Shipman, which for reasons passing understanding has been moved to the Wilson chute. He was last seen running sixth of 16 in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile in Dubai, and he’s shown he’s capable of firing some big shots; #5 TIERGAN: Romped over optional claimers at this route less than two weeks ago and gets wheeled back quickly by new trainer Bill Morey. This operation excels with new acquisitions, and while this is a class hike, he fits on speed figures; #6 MARKET ALERT: Beat several of these rivals last time out in the Saginaw at Belmont. Two turns is a question mark, and he’s 0-for-3 at the Spa, but he’s running career-best races and can’t be ignored at a bit of a price.

R9

Chiara
Coolcatsnkittens
Eli Dancer

#12 CHIARA: May be a big price but fits here and could light up the tote board. She’s been competitive in each of her last two outings and would retain Luis Saez if she draws in off of the also-eligible list. If she’s allowed to run, I think she’s a must-use; #3 COOLCATSNKITTENS: Comes back to the maiden claiming ranks after misfiring against maiden special weight foes at Belmont. Her two-back effort was a career-best, but it’s a bit alarming she’s worked just once since that June 26th clunker; #5 ELI DANCER: Tries turf for the first time and adds Lasix for a barn hitting at a 23% clip this calendar year. They tried to get her on the grass for her debut, which was washed out and moved to the main track, and her recent four-furlong turf drill was a very good one.

R10

Gallina (MTO)
Whatlovelookslike
Lookin to Fly

#8 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE: Has improved in every start for Todd Pletcher and broke her maiden last time out. She did so in a pretty fast clocking, too, and Flavien Prat seeing fit to ride back is a big, big plus; #1 LOOKIN TO FLY: Has two wins and a third over this turf course, including a last-out win over weaker foes in her 2022 debut. She’s protected here and could come rolling late if there’s a lively pace up front; #4 SINFULLY SWEET: Graduated last time out in a turf sprint and tries both winners and two turns for the first time. Her pedigree says that won’t be an issue, and the progression she’s made as a 4-year-old is encouraging.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/11/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $906.95

Stewards are often put in no-win situations. Any decision they make is going to offend someone watching the race who disagrees with them, even ones that seem obvious to neutral observers.

However, we’re starting to see riding that goes beyond “aggressive” and into “reckless,” and it’s not getting penalized. It seems like horses are getting herded, bumped, cut off, and forced to alter course in dramatic fashion at least once a day. Sometimes, that’s non-malicious, bad racing luck (like what happened in Wednesday’s seventh race, where Dylan Davis’s horse was simply in the wrong spot at the wrong time and caused Eric Cancel and his mount to fall). Other times, it’s stuff that shouldn’t have a place in the game.

I’ll add my voice to a growing chorus: If this doesn’t change, riders and horses alike are at risk of getting hurt. Some contact is bound to happen, as is aggressive race-riding. Recklessness, however, has no place at any level of the sport, especially the highest one.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Skylander gave me some hope turning for home in the fifth but, unfortunately, flattened out. I dropped $24 after scratches.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll once again focus on the fifth race of the day. #9 ON PALM SUNDAY is my longshot of the day in the pick box, as I think he’s this race’s lone true early speed. In addition to a $15 win bet, I’ll key him in $2 exactas above and below #7 SENSE A GIANT and #10 MR. CONNECTICUT, and I’ll single him in $3 doubles starting in the fifth that end with #4 CURLY LARRY AND MO and #6 DONEGAL SURGES in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $29.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Empress Tigress, Race 9
Longshot: On Palm Sunday, Race 5

R1

Patrick the Great
Catching Cupid
Salt Cay

#4 PATRICK THE GREAT: Just missed last time out in a similar spot downstate and was nearly six lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back for the new connections, which is certainly a plus; #6 CATCHING CUPID: Adds blinkers after running third in his first try against maiden claimers earlier this summer. This is the third start of his form cycle after a long layoff, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s sitting on a career-best effort; #5 SALT CAY: Will likely take plenty of betting money because of trainer Chad Brown, but I have my doubts. It seems like they were salivating to get him on turf after a pair of off-the-turf races last season, but he was 10th as an 8/5 favorite last time out and now gets dropped down the ladder. At his price, I’ll try to beat him.

R2

Invaluable (MTO)
Angelinka
Violent Point

#2 ANGELINKA: Runs for a tag for the first time and seems to have found a very weak field for the level. Neither stateside start is inspiring, but she’s got some back class from her time in Europe and has been chasing much, much better horses here; #4 VIOLENT POINT: Broke through to win for the first time in a while last time out and comes back to the turf. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure in doing so, and she’d be competitive if she can repeat that performance; #5 BAY JEWEL: Hasn’t won since May of 2021 but goes first off the claim for a barn that doesn’t sport bad numbers with new acquisitions. The jump up in class hints at some confidence, and the two races she ran at this route last year against allowance foes weren’t terrible.

R3

Dame Cinco
Preposterous
Belarus

#5 DAME CINCO: Ran well when second for a slightly higher tag at Keeneland in April. He’s shown he likes this one-mile distance, and Luis Saez rides back when he likely had a few options in this event out of the Wilson chute; #2 PREPOSTEROUS: Goes first off the claim for Antonio Arriaga, who’s already found the winner’s circle a few times with his small string of runners. She was second last time out behind a major class-dropper, and she won going a mile last fall at Belmont; #1 BELARUS: Tries winners for the first time after breaking through downstate in June. I don’t think she beat a ton that day, but her form looks considerably better if you assume she just doesn’t like the Aqueduct surface she floundered over twice during the winter. 

R4

Nicky the Vest (MTO)
Barrage
Ruse

#2 BARRAGE: Ran well to finish second behind a “horse for the course” last time out in a similar spot, one that featured a bunch of horses that show up here. He seems to have moved forward in his 4-year-old campaign, and he’s a very logical favorite given this closer-friendly race shape; #3 RUSE: Is 0-for-4 this season, but did the best work of his career here last summer, when he won twice in three local starts. Of the probable pace-setters, he’s the one the hits me as the most likely winner; #7 STRAW INTO GOLD: Figures to benefit from a lively pace and retains Joel Rosario for Christophe Clement. That tag team merits respect, but it’s worth wondering if he prefers the downstate tracks given his 0-for-3 record at the Spa.

R5

On Palm Sunday
Sense a Giant
Mr. Connecticut

#9 ON PALM SUNDAY: Certainly looks like the main speed in a race largely devoid of early zip. He comes back to his preferred surface after his local debut was washed off the turf, and I think he could get very comfortable and prove tough to catch at a big of a price; #7 SENSE A GIANT: Drops in for a tag at second asking and adds blinkers following a one-paced debut at Belmont. It’s not easy to make a first start going a route of ground, so improvement could certainly be in the cards; #10 MR. CONNECTICUT: Runs for a tag after finishing third earlier this summer, but the race he exits has not aged well. The second and fourth-place finishers both came back to run poorly over the weekend, the far outside post doesn’t help, and I just prefer others (especially at this one’s likely short price).

R6

Curly Larry and Mo
Donegal Surges
Impressor

#4 CURLY LARRY AND MO: Ran well to be second in his debut earlier at this stand and has every right to move forward at second asking. This barn’s numbers with second-out maidens are strong, and his experience edge over this entire field isn’t a small asset; #6 DONEGAL SURGES: Sold for $150,000 last year at Keeneland and debuts for Todd Pletcher. The most recent drill is impressive, as is his pedigree, but it’s worth wondering why he was worked twice on turf after a string of so-so drills earlier this summer; #8 IMPRESSOR: Sold for $335,000 earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and has every right to be a runner. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because Steve Asmussen trainees often need a race to get going, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this one went favored and he’s not without a shot.

R7

Winter Pool
Kershaw
Claytnthelionheart

#8 WINTER POOL: Ran well here twice last summer in a pair of races at this route. He’s been off since being claimed by Norm Casse in June, but an impressive series of drills ahead of a return to his favorite track has me encouraged; #4 KERSHAW: Was second in the very first race of the meet, one that fell apart due to a very fast pace for the level. He was probably a bit too close to it, but has every right to improve here in his first start for a barn that hits with 29% of runners first off the claim; #6 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART: Has cracked the exacta in five of six local starts and was third last time out in a pretty strong race for the level. He’s a pretty versatile runner, one that could give Julien Leparoux plenty of options early on in this two-turn event.

R8

Bella Principessa
H. T. Xena
Echo Foxtrot

#5 BELLA PRINCIPESSA: Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open starter allowance race for older fillies and mares. She’s spent time on the turf of late, but ran well on dirt downstate earlier this season and has won at this tricky seven-furlong distance; #2 H. T. XENA: Cuts back from a mile in her first start for new trainer Matt Shirer, who protects her from being claimed in this spot. She romped going seven furlongs at Keeneland this past spring and may be figuring things out in her 4-year-old campaign; #1 ECHO FOXTROT: Is 2-for-2 after a pair of victories on the Mid-Atlantic circuit and ships up for a barn that must be respected. This is a pretty significant class test, but it does help her cause that the last-out runner-up has since come back to win.

R9

Empress Tigress
Makin My Move
Breeze Easy

#7 EMPRESS TIGRESS: Has done nothing wrong to this point and handled a major class hike with aplomb to win the Coronation Cup last month. The Galway is a logical next step, and many runners she beat last time out will try her again here; #8 MAKIN MY MOVE: Has won two in a row since being switched to the turf and would benefit from a pace meltdown. One of those wins came at this route of ground, and when this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #6 BREEZE EASY: Cuts back after two stakes placings going longer downstate. She came over here after starting her career in Europe, where she placed in several stakes races going short against decent runners.

R10

Jocosity
Lem Me Drink
Succulent

#9 JOCOSITY: Was one-paced in her debut, which turned out to be a pretty fast race for the level. Bill Mott trainees usually move forward with experience, and I’m expecting progression here in the Thursday finale; #2 LEM ME DRINK: Showed some late interest in his debut going shorter and stretches out to a route of ground. There’s stamina in his pedigree, so the distance shouldn’t be a problem, and Javier Castellano is making the most of every mount so far this summer; #11 SUCCULENT: Rallied late to be fourth in the same race my top pick exits and earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure in doing so. The faster they go early on, the better this one’s chances figure to be.