horse | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/22)

Posted on July 25, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $890.20

Sunday’s card featured a no-win situation. The seventh race was rightfully ruled a no-contest after a bizarre sequence of events. Pick Four players were briefly left to wonder what was going on until the New York Racing Association made an official announcement that all tickets would be refunded.

Much like with the “make a race an ‘all’” Pick Five situation in the first week of the meet, NYRA made the correct call, albeit a bit later than most handicappers would’ve preferred. In both instances, I wouldn’t have minded a delay of the next race while the matter in question was fully sorted out. Waiting 10 or 15 minutes wouldn’t have hurt anyone, and it would’ve given bettors opportunities to re-evaluate sequences and bet accordingly.

These two instances are freak occurrences, though, and I won’t judge anyone for being thrown off by them. Hopefully, we can return to some semblance of normalcy over the last three-quarters of the meet.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Key of Life was one of several top picks of mine that scratched. As a result, all of my action was called off.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I cannot get past #2 DISARMED in the third, and I’ll wager in hopes of extracting some value. In addition to a $20 win bet on that runner, I’ll single him to finish off $5 doubles that start in the second with #4 DAILY BRIEFING and #6 BIG TONY’S GIRL. If we can beat the even-money chalk in the first leg, those doubles may pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Disarmed, Race 3
Longshot: Alice Kramden, Race 6

Ancient Times
Welshman
Bee Major

#1 ANCIENT TIMES: Has proven tough when left alone on the lead, both over fences and on the flat. This is his first steeplechase start against winners, but his early speed should be an asset, and I think he can wire this bunch; #8 WELSHMAN: Was perhaps wheeled back a bit quickly after his maiden-breaking score in April. However, Hall of Fame horseman Jack Fisher has rested him up for this one, and I expect him to be prominent from an early stage; #3 BEE MAJOR: Was pulled up last time out but prevailed two back. In his flat racing days, he definitely preferred firmer surfaces, and perhaps the soft going had something to do with his last-out clunker.

Daily Briefing
Big Tony’s Girl
Knot Anymore

#4 DAILY BRIEFING: Has a record that looks very solid if you solely focus on her dirt sprints. She was third last time in a race where she was probably a bit too far back early on. I expect her to be up closer here, and her usual effort would give her a big chance; #6 BIG TONY’S GIRL: Cuts back from seven furlongs to six and may benefit from drier going in this spot. Her lone start over a fast track this season was also her lone win of the year, and she bested my top pick two back downstate; #1 KNOT ANYMORE: Is an even-money favorite and may simply be too much in her first start for a tag, but I have my doubts. It’s not like she was running against world-beaters at Charles Town, and her races at Laurel, while OK, were a cut below her efforts over the West Virginia bullring. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

Disarmed
Noble Huntsman
General Banker

#2 DISARMED: Hammered for $165,000 at auction last summer and has trained forwardly ahead of his debut. The recent four-furlong gate drill was a real head-turner, and there’s plenty of class in his pedigree, as dam Saravati is kin to multiple Grade 1 heroine You; #5 NOBLE HUNTSMAN: Is one of many debuting for barns whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, his dam won her debut sprinting on turf and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Carameaway, so this son of Noble Mission has a right to be a runner; #3 GENERAL BANKER: Is a full sibling to a four-time winner and is bred up and down to be a sharp turf sprinter. The lack of precocity from this barn is a red flag, but he boasts a few solid drills and figures to be a big price.

Bella Sofia
Frank’s Rockette
Kimari

#2 BELLA SOFIA: Is 2-for-2 this season and looms large in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. She won last year’s Grade 1 Test over this track, and her lone career misfire came over a Del Mar surface she may not have cared for last November; #1 FRANK’S ROCKETTE: Is as consistent as they come, with 19 top-three finishes in 21 lifetime outings. She hasn’t won in more than a year, but she ran my top pick to a nose in the Grade 3 Vagrancy and gets four pounds from that rival today; #4 KIMARI: Might be over the top as a 5-year-old mare, but boasts the right running style as this event’s lone closing-type. She was third in the Grade 1 Madison two back at Keeneland, a race she won in 2021, and a performance that turns back the clock would put her right there.

Hometown (MTO)
Mooney Love
Forwardly

#6 MOONEY LOVE: Makes his American debut after spending his career to date overseas. He cruised home in a minor stakes race in Germany last time out, and his prior connections ran him in a pair of Group 2 events last season. If his form made the trip with him across the Atlantic, look out; #2 FORWARDLY: Graduated last time out at Belmont and faces winners for the first time. He’s lightly-raced, so he may have further potential to improve, but the last-out second and third-place finishers have both come back to run mediocre races up here; #4 CURBSTONE: Gets back to the lawn after several starts over the main track at Churchill Downs. This race seems fairly light on early speed, and this front-runner’s best effort came going a mile and a quarter. He’ll likely be sent early on and lead them as long as he can.

Repole entry
Alice Kramden
Silver Skillet

#1 GAMBLING GIRL: Was 6/5 in her debut last month at Belmont and got a terrible trip. She checked hard going into the turn, got shuffled way back, was floated wide turning for home, and still ran fourth just a length behind the runner-up. A step forward and a less-eventful journey would make her formidable at second asking; #10 ALICE KRAMDEN: Hammered for $200,000 at auction last fall and gets a cushy outside post in her career debut. Her dam and second dam both won stakes races, and there are several works in this one’s tab that indicate she may have potential; #5 SILVER SKILLET: Sold for $260,000 across the street last summer and is training well ahead of her unveiling. Her dam was a stakes-winner that captured her debut, and first-call rider Joel Rosario will be aboard.

Mirth ’n Merriment
Hatari
Spooky Road

#5 MIRTH ’N MERRIMENT: Seems like the lone speed in this two-turn turf route, and those types are usually tough to bear. She topped older foes over Presque Isle’s synthetic course last time out and boasts a front-running win at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this season; #1 HATARI: Is one of two Mike Maker trainees in this field, and she gets the benefit of both a class drop and new jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. On figures, she fits, but will she get enough pace to run at?; #2 SPOOKY ROAD: May be the more forwardly-placed Maker runner, as she attracts both blinkers and aggressive gate rider Luis Saez. She goes second off the bench here and may have needed her comeback race at Belmont.

O’Gotten Girl
Unlock
Preposterous

#8 O’GOTTEN GIRL: Takes a massive drop in class for aggressive connections and figures to be prominent early. A return to her mid-2021 form second off the layoff would make her tough to beat, and this is by far the weakest bunch she’s ever run against; #9 UNLOCK: Merits a look coming back to dirt after stopping badly against starter allowance foes on turf. Her effort two back, though, was sharp, and Dylan Davis sticking with this one after the clunker hits me as a good sign; #5 PREPOSTEROUS: Cuts back to this six-furlong distance and runs for a tag for the first time. This barn excels with horses going from routes to sprints, and the recent four-furlong drill here indicates she’s taken to this surface well.

Misty Veil (MTO)
High Opinion
Evvie Jets

#1 HIGH OPINION: Gets some class relief after winning a listed stakes race at Parx last month. She ran well here twice a season ago, including when she ran second to the talented Viadera in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa; #7 EVVIE JETS: Gets back to a two-turn route of ground, which she’s proven she loves. She won a pretty fast race for the level downstate last time out, and her lone local start was a wire-to-wire win last summer; #5 MESSIDOR: Has plenty of back class and most recently ran fourth in the Perfect Sting a few weeks ago. On figures, she more than fits, but she also has a history of finding trouble and doesn’t seem like the easiest horse to ride.

R10

Course Runner
Aquila Moon
Dover Dreams

#4 COURSE RUNNER: Gets a tepid nod in a confusing Wednesday finale. Unlike several of her rivals, she has a recent race, having run fourth last month at Churchill for a barn whose first-time starters don’t usually win. She’s bred to be any kind and could take a significant step forward with experience; #11 AQUILA MOON: Showed speed first time out when fourth behind a pair of next-out winners. That was on Halloween of last year, so the layoff is a concern, but she’s trained consistently ahead of her return and draws well here; #8 DOVER DREAMS: Chased the likes of Nest and Goddess of Fire as a 2-year-old, so she has every right to improve with those fillies off competing at the highest level. She hasn’t run since September, but she gets Lasix for the first time and would be a pretty considerable overlay at anywhere close to the morning line price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/24/22)

Posted on July 22, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $890.20

I’ve written these bankroll blurbs from strange places before, but this one may take the cake. I’m writing this one from my girlfriend’s best friend’s baby shower in Orange County, California. My role is to keep the soon-to-be father company and eat as much as humanly possible at Gus’s Barbecue in South Pasadena after the event is over.

Funny story: On the way down, my girlfriend leaned over and said she thought the air in the plane smelled horrible. Without missing a beat, I quipped, “don’t worry, I’m pretty sure they can crack a window or something once we get going.”

Predictably, while I found this wildly entertaining, she did not. She really IS a saint.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Scratches reduced my investment to just a single $9 Pick Five play, which went up in smoke when my first-race single lost as the favorite.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Anything close to the 2-1 morning line price on #2 KEY OF LIFE in the sixth hits me as an overlay, so I’ll focus on that one. I’ll play a $20 win ticket on her, $5 exactas using her over #4 KALING and #7 RARIFY, and $5 doubles starting with her that end with #3 LOVE TANK and #10 TREASURED GEM in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Key of Life, Race 6
Longshot: Drakon, Race 10

Wasabi Boy
Bat Flip
Faithful and True

#7 WASABI BOY: Has an experience edge over most of this group and may have bounced last time out after a strong debut. He ran into Forte in his unveiling, then didn’t make the lead at Monmouth. A repeat of his first-out performance would give him a big shot; #2 BAT FLIP: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and will take plenty of money solely based on that fact. This $350,000 son of Good Magic has a few five-furlong works on his slate, as well as a bullet gate drill over the Oklahoma track, and he could have the foundation to fire at first asking; #1 FAITHFUL AND TRUE: Draws the rail in his first start, which usually isn’t ideal. However, this $450,000 auction buy has been working very well at Keeneland and attracts Flavien Prat.

Once a Giant
Ampersand
Icon

#4 ONCE A GIANT: Takes a massive drop in class for August Dawn Farm, otherwise known as former Giants coach Bill Parcells. He hasn’t fired against starter allowance company, but anything close to his three-back score at Aqueduct would make him formidable against this bunch; #2 AMPERSAND: Ships up from Florida for trainer Phil Serpe, and on figures sure seems like the one to beat. However, that 0-for-14 mark over the last two years raises “pack animal” questions, ones that are fair to ask given his likely short price; #1 ICON: Ran reasonably well in his first start since November of 2020, when he was third against $20,000 claimers at Churchill. Robertino Diodoro excels with new acquisitions, and the recent four-furlong work here was very quick.

Power Agenda
Doctor Love
Taco Bean

#2 POWER AGENDA: Was pretty highly-regarded a season ago, when he debuted with a win and ran fifth in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He takes a massive drop here, but does so for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to lose horses to other barns in pursuit of victories at the Spa; #4 DOCTOR LOVE: Continues dropping down after running fourth for a $50,000 tag last month at Churchill Downs. This level should be more to his liking, and he’s one of only a few closers in a race that seems heavy on early zip; #3 TACO BEAN: Hasn’t won in a while but goes first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, who’s won a few races already at this stand. Jose Lezcano climbs aboard, and there’s every chance he moves up for his new connections.

Phantom Smoke
King Angelo
Call Me Harry

#6 PHANTOM SMOKE: Came back running off the bench when second in a fast race for the level downstate. He’s finished first or second in all but one of his career outings, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., riding back when he probably had options inspires confidence; #1 KING ANGELO: Broke his maiden at this route last summer and is another going second off the bench. He has the speed to establish position from his inside post, which is always handy in these turf sprints; #5 CALL ME HARRY: Has a sheet that looks miles better if you toss the races that aren’t turf sprints. Two of his three career wins have come here, and perhaps he’s ready to fire a big one at a price in the third start of his form cycle.

Malathaat
Clairiere
Exotic West

#3 MALATHAAT: Headlines a Grade 3 Shuvee field that’s light on numbers but heavy on quality. She just missed in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps downstate, but has never fired a bad shot and could be more involved early given the addition of blinkers; #4 CLAIRIERE: Nipped my top pick last time out while benefiting from an ideal pace scenario. This race shouldn’t melt down like that one did, but she’s another ultra-consistent filly that’s found her best form, and maybe she doesn’t need a perfect setup to win; #1 EXOTIC WEST: Was a distant second in the Grade 3 DuPont behind a freakish performance, and his cracked the exacta in each of the last six races she’s finished. This barn popped at a price in a stakes race already this summer, and while a win may be a bit too much to ask form, she may inherit the lead by default and hang on for a piece of it.

Key of Life
Rarify
Kaling

#2 KEY OF LIFE: Lost all chance at the start of her debut, where she was third as a 2/5 favorite. She’s had two very strong drills since coming to upstate New York, and I’m more than willing to give her another chance at second asking; #7 RARIFY: Fits the mold of the “fast Wesley Ward 2-year-old” to a tee. She sold for $750,000 at Keeneland last year, and this daughter of Justify has been working well enough to hint that she could, well, justify that price tag; #4 KALING: Makes her first start for the tag team of Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat, and does so with a steady string of works downstate. She earned a bullet for her July 8th drill and can’t be ignored.

Love Tank
Treasured Gem
Idea Generation

#3 LOVE TANK: Stepped forward at second asking after a bad break in her debut. She was a close second after leading most of the way, and this barn excels with horses stretching out after a pair of sprint races. Add in Luis Saez and the 8-1 morning line, and I’m very intrigued; #10 TREASURED GEM: Needs to overcome a far outside post but certainly seems to be bred up and down for this route. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has a few very strong works on her sheet, and the Rosario/Clement duo merits respect, especially on the lawn; #5 IDEA GENERATION: Debuts for Chad Brown after being shipped over from the Tattersalls sale and will almost certainly go favored. However, the works are just okay, and while she’s bred to be any kind, it’s fair to ask questions of a horse that will take lots of money at the windows.

Kinetic Sky
Emerald Express
Swiftsure

#3 KINETIC SKY: Was 5-1 in a Grade 3 not long ago and drops in for a tag in his 2022 debut. However, that’s not a panicky drop. These connections win with droppers like this very often, he’s working well, and a return to his 2021 form would make him a tough favorite to beat; #4 EMERALD EXPRESS: Was claimed by Joe Sharp following a second-place finish at this level at Churchill. That was his second solid performance in a row at this level, and he’s shown enough flexibility to give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 SWIFTSURE: Probably needed his return off a long break, where he faded to fourth behind a pretty fast horse. He showed enough class to be favored in last year’s Grade 3 Lexington, and the outside draw is certainly a plus.

Baba (MTO)
Osiria
Tuscan Queen

#1 OSIRIA: Led at every call to break her maiden and earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure in doing so. She’s moved forward in every start, and while Belmont’s turf course can play kindly to early speed, she went pretty fast throughout in that event, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win; #8 TUSCAN QUEEN: Likely needed her 2022 debut, which was her first race since December. She gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz second off the bench, and she ran two solid races here a season ago; #6 CAIRONI: Merits a look underneath at a pretty big price. Her lone win came in her lone turf sprint, and perhaps she’d just been going too far ever since. It wouldn’t be shocking to see her clunk up for a share beneath Dylan Davis.

R10

Street Vendor
Drakon
Smoke and Heat

#7 STREET VENDOR: Just missed against maiden special weight foes at Monmouth and runs for a tag here. Luis Saez rides for Pletcher, and any improvement second off the long layoff could make this one-time $500,000 purchase the one to beat in the Sunday nightcap; #3 DRAKON: Was third downstate in his first start on turf, and many things indicate he’ll be prominent early in a race otherwise light on early zip. Blinkers go on, as does top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche, and this barn hits at a high enough percentage to where this one hits me as a must-use; #1 SMOKE AND HEAT: Drops in for a tag after a trio of OK showings against straight maidens. On figures, he fits, but it’s worth noting the first two finishers from his last race have both come back to run poorly at short prices.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/23/22)

Posted on July 21, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $899.20

In addition to Saturday’s big card at Saratoga, there’s also a huge day on tap at Monmouth Park. It’s Haskell Day, and the main event features a clash between Jack Christopher and Taiba. I sat in on PlayUSA’s Haskell preview show, which can be seen on the PlayUSA YouTube channel.

Dave Bontempo, Bill Gelman, and I were joined by morning line man Brad Thomas and Dallas Baker of BetMakers, and it was a blast. If you’re playing that race, you won’t want to miss it!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Grand Slam tickets went up in smoke when my second-leg single was off the board. As such, I dropped $16.

SATURDAY’S PLAYS: This is an outstanding slate. My action starts in the opener with an early 50-cent Pick Five ticket that reads as follows: 7 with 6,7 with 3,6 with ALL with 5. I’ll also play an early 50-cent Pick Four starting in the second race that goes like this: 6 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,8,9 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Activist Investing, Race 1
Longshot: Prisoner, Race 8

Activist Investing
Coach Petro
Reckoning Force

#7 ACTIVIST INVESTING: Fetched $313,000 at the Tattersalls sale and has some of the best turf breeding of any horse on the grounds. His 451 turf Tomlinson rating is exceptional, he’s been working steadily for Chad Brown, and he looms large; #5 COACH PETRO: Debuts for Brad Cox, who’s enjoyed a stellar meet to this point, and is another with plenty of turf in his pedigree. His dam was a stakes-winner on the lawn, and this female family also threw Grade 2 turf winner Speaktomeofsummer; #9 RECKONING FORCE: Was third in his debut overseas and makes his first North American start for Joseph O’Brien. He’s got an experience edge over the first-time starters, and this dam’s two other foals to race are both winners.

Risk Profile (MTO)
Private Life
Brazillionaire

#6 PRIVATE LIFE: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in an off-the-turf event. He gets back to his preferred surface and drops in class, and anything close to his two-back win over starter allowance foes at Gulfstream would make him a tough customer; #7 BRAZILLIONAIRE: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out with an easy four-length jaunt downstate, and his record looks far better if you focus on his sprint efforts. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but he’s doing what he wants to do, and that matters; #2 ME ’N SAP: Drops back in for a tag on short rest after a start against higher-level competition last week. His win two back wasn’t bad, and David Donk’s horses are generally running pretty well to this point in the summer.

Jane Grey
Repealing
Bank On Anna

#3 JANE GREY: Had every right to need her first start since September of 2020, but ran a decent second behind an impressive winner. Bill Mott’s horses tend to improve second off the bench, and the presence of Luis Saez is intriguing; #6 REPEALING: Ran in probably the best maiden race of the season last year against champion Echo Zulu and stakes-winner Lady Scarlet, among others. She came back running with a win last month at Churchill Downs, and she goes against winners for the first time here; #1 BANK ON ANNA: Has won three of her last four starts against state-breds and tries open company here. She’s got some versatility and doesn’t necessarily need to be on the lead to run well, which could help her snag a piece of this at a price.

Mozay
Veronica Greene
Sixth Street

#1 MOZAY: Has been close on a number of occasions and draws favorably in this wide-open turf event. She just missed last time out, when she was involved in a three-way photo at Belmont, and she’s run well going two turns in the past; #6 VERONICA GREENE: Tries the turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Her two dirt outings have been a bit disappointing, but she continues to hint at talent in the mornings and Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been enticed to ride; #9 SIXTH STREET: Is a European export getting Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. She’d been sprinting overseas and stretches out for a very capable barn, and this may not be the toughest race we see at this level this summer.

Secret Oath
Nest
Nostalgic

#5 SECRET OATH: Had a nightmare trip in the Grade 1 Preakness against boys, which came just two weeks after a smashing score in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She’s been training forwardly for one of the best to ever condition a racehorse, and I think she’ll be tough in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks; #3 NEST: Wasn’t disgraced a bit when second behind stablemate Mo Donegal in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes going a mile and a half. She’s never missed the board in seven career starts and seems ready to fire again; #4 NOSTALGIC: Didn’t have a great trip in the Oaks, which came after a late-running score in the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct. She showed tactical speed in a few starts earlier this year, and I think she’s better than her last-out effort indicates.

Powerful
Full Moon Madness
Phelpsy

#5 POWERFUL: Gets a tepid nod in a puzzling 2-year-old maiden race that feels heavy on potential. This son of Nyquist hammered for $525,000 at auction, is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are winners, and possesses a few eye-catching works for Steve Asmussen; #2 FULL MOON MADNESS: Debuts for Michelle Nevin, whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going, and the inside draw isn’t ideal. However, he’s out of multiple Grade 1 winner By the Moon, and his July 9th work at Belmont Park jumps off the page; #8 PHELPSY: Was a million-dollar baby at the Keeneland sale last September. This son of Into Mischief has an outstanding female family, with a dam that’s kin to multiple graded stakes-winner Private Mission. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want longer than this six-furlong route of ground.

Tough Street
Writers Room
Quick Power Nap

#2 TOUGH STREET: Makes her 2022 debut off a long break, but adds Lasix for Chad Brown and finally gets to try turf. Broodmare sire Freud is an excellent grass influence, and her dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Jazzy Jessy; #8 WRITERS ROOM: Is one of several exiting the same maiden race on June 25th at Belmont and closed at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing to do. Linda Rice’s runners tend to improve at second asking, and a logical step forward gives her a big chance; #6 QUICK POWER NAP: Was second to a good horse in her debut at this route last summer, then went away for 11 months and came back to run third in the race my second choice exits. She figures to be prominent early for a barn whose horses always seem live.

Highly Respected
Prisoner
Favorite Outlaw

#7 HIGHLY RESPECTED: Cuts back to a sprint after getting nailed at the wire in back-to-back races downstate, one of which was the Grade 3 Bay Shore. He’s fired back-to-back bullet drills ahead of this allowance race, and the cushy outside draw is a big plus; #3 PRISONER: Ran a clunker last time out after starting his career with three consecutive wins. Two recent bullets hint that he’s come back to form for Charlton Baker, and repeats of the races he ran earlier this year at Aqueduct would give him a shot at a very square price; #4 FAVORITE OUTLAW: Has a win and two seconds from three lifetime starts and most recently ran second behind a runaway winner at Churchill Downs. He’s run races that would make him very competitive in this spot, and this lightly-raced colt may still have some room to improve.

Uncle Moonlight
Stage Raider
Rising Empire

#1 UNCLE MOONLIGHT: Capitalized on a “lone speed” situation last time out at Belmont and posted a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, easily a career-best. A similar scenario could present itself here, as this one sure looks like the main pace factor in his two-turn debut; #7 STAGE RAIDER: Is best known as Justify’s younger half-brother, but has run several strong figures and may simply be better than this group. However, he’s 0-for-3 this year, and while he was second behind the talented Highly Motivated last time out, he was probably supposed to win the two-back race. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against him; #3 RISING EMPIRE: Ran a clunker last time out at Churchill Downs, but adds blinkers and has enough back form to suggest that was an outlier. Brendan Walsh got this one going pretty well earlier this year, and the last-out dud may mean we get an inflated price.

R10

Tobys Heart
Caravel
Star Devine

#5 TOBYS HEART: Could provide some value in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 3 Caress. She was beaten four lengths in the Grade 3 Intercontinental, but early speed held well in that race. This one is 4-for-4 at this distance, likes Saratoga, and should get plenty of pace to chase; #1 CARAVEL: Became the Intercontinental champion (first wrestling reference of the season!) last time out, and we’ve seen her run some sensational races. She can run well on the lead or sitting just off the pace, and it wouldn’t be stunning if she won this race for a second year in a row; #3 STAR DEVINE: Has run second twice in as many 2022 outings, but has chased quality fillies home and could have room to improve. She won a minor stakes race at this route last summer, and John Velazquez certainly knows her very well.

R11

Bold Victory
Catch That Party
Shinsun

#8 CATCH THAT PARTY: Rated behind a pretty slow early pace last time out, but still rallied and was beaten less than two lengths. He ran well here three times last summer, and it’s telling that aggressive connections protect him rather than drop into a softer spot; #7 SHINSUN: Carries an unusual pedigree and bucked a big trend when he won his debut for Barclay Tagg, who doesn’t usually have his first-time starters fully cranked. This gelding by Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward, out of a German mare, could have some talent, and Luis Saez riding back is encouraging; #1 FRONT MAN: Exits the same race as my top pick and was beaten a length by that runner on that occasion. This one has won his lone local start to date, and a repeat of his two-back winning effort would give him a puncher’s chance at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/22/22)

Posted on July 20, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915.20

Another major track opens today, as the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club kicks off its summer meet. The venue, located just outside sunny San Diego, has recently worked its way into the Breeders’ Cup rotation, and the “Saratoga or Del Mar?” debates are often inescapable.

Here’s my take: One of those two tracks has helped me build my career. The other actively tried to destroy it before it really got started.

If you want the story, find me sometime. We’re coming up on the time where I can tell it publicly, but we’re not quite there yet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of the Grand Slam (after extolling the virtues of that wager, ironically enough), and my late doubles were washed out when the finale was moved off the turf. Remember: All plays in this section assume races carded for the grass stay there.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at the Grand Slam. My $4 ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 1,7 with 7 with 3,6 with 6. I’m hoping to extract some value out of #6 EMINENT VICTOR in the Lake George, and this may be a way to do that.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 2
Longshot: Makart, Race 6

Rarify (MTO)
Wico
Appraise

#2 WICO: Had an eventful journey in his debut, when he missed the break, rushed up, led briefly in midstretch, and ran out of energy. Everything about that effort says he’ll move forward with experience, and such improvement gives him a big chance despite this turning up pretty strong; #6 APPRAISE: Fetched $256,000 at the Tattersalls sale and has every right to be a runner. Chad Brown’s had plenty of success here with debuting runners that possess European pedigree; #4 ALEXIS ZORBA: Makes his U.S. debut for Joseph O’Brien, who’s maintaining a small string here this summer. The intrigue may attract money, but Europe isn’t known for flashy 2-year-olds. Perhaps he’s good enough, but I need more value than I’m likely to get.

Klaravich entry
Happy Bob (MTO)
Oglethorpe

KLARAVICH ENTRY: Both #1 INDEMNIFY and #1A GLOBAL CAPITAL have big chances here. The former is another European-bred runner that could be any kind, and the latter has run well when second on three straight occasions; #6 OGLETHORPE: Is one of several exiting an off-the-turf event downstate. He closed late to be beaten just a half-length in his unveiling, and this barn’s runners tend to need a race or two to get going; #2 CLUBBING: Was fourth in the race Oglethorpe exits and has plenty of reason to improve here. He’s bred up and down for turf, being a full sibling to a Grade 3-placed grass horse, and the switch to a two-turn configuration should only help him.

Amount
Claytnthelionheart
Hammerin Aamer

#5 AMOUNT: Threw in a clunker last time and takes a big drop in class for this event. He won three in a row earlier this year, including two at this one-mile distance, and the shallower waters figure to make this Todd Pletcher trainee a formidable foe; #3 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART: Has finished in the money in five of six local starts, and three of those efforts have been winning ones. This is his third start off a long layoff, and a return to his mid-2021 form would make him intriguing; #2 HAMMERIN AAMER: Comes back to what’s probably the right level in his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He’s been around a while and has run some strong races at this distance, but the 0-for-8 local mark is a significant concern.

Beachfront Bid
I’m Glad
Whiskey Lullaby

#8 BEACHFRONT BID: Has been competitive in six starts against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. That’s a significant drop from an aggressive barn, and while the recent Monmouth works would normally be a concern, Brown’s horses coming from New Jersey have run well so far at this stand; #7 I’M GLAD: Probably bounced off of a solid debut when last of 10 as a 2-1 favorite at Belmont. This barn is another that doesn’t mess around and boasts very strong numbers going from maiden special weight races to maiden claiming events; #4 WHISKEY LULLABY: Improved at second asking when third at this level downstate. Top-tier turf rider Jose Lezcano climbs back aboard for this one, and she should be prominent early at a bit of a price.

Dubb entry
Our Country
Sonic Speed

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1 CHESS’S DREAM, who won the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy in 2021 and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since. However, he goes second off the bench, gets back to a two-turn route of ground, and attracts Jose Ortiz for this event; #6 OUR COUNTRY: Has been running against starter allowance company for most of this year, but his last start for a claiming tag was a win. Flavien Prat rides back after a one-paced fifth-place finish downstate, which hits me as a good sign; #9 SONIC SPEED: Has a record that looks far better if you only focus on two-turn turf races. Do that and you’re left with wins at Gulfstream and Aqueduct and an OK fourth at Laurel (remember, Belmont’s mile is a one-turn course). This is a high-percentage barn that wins lots of races, and he may be a bit of a price.

Ria’s Angel
Makart
Slow Decision

#1 RIA’S ANGEL: Showed improvement two back in his lone dirt route and comes back to the main track after a failed turf experiment. This race out of the Wilson chute is a perplexing one, but a repeat of that early-May effort would put him right there; #7 MAKART: Earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure last time out in his second start off the bench, which doubled as his second start for this barn. He didn’t miss by much that day, and while there were no world-beaters in that field, this field doesn’t appear to be any great shakes, either; #4 SLOW DECISION: Faded to fifth in his debut on turf and goes to dirt here. He’s supposed to take money, and he probably will, but other than the connections, what inspires confidence, especially at his likely price?

Efficiency
Keepmeinmind
Naval Aviator

#7 EFFICIENCY: Romped by 11 lengths in an off-the-turf event to break his maiden last time out and makes his first start against winners here. Perhaps he’s just a mud freak, but offspring of Gun Runner have shown they can perform in any conditions, and the consistent work tab inspires some confidence; #1 KEEPMEINMIND: Danced a lot of dances a season ago, most notably running in two-thirds of the Triple Crown and finishing second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. If he’s ready and gets a perfect trip, he looms large, but he’s shown he finds trouble, and the rail is often a poor place to be for horses like that; #4 NAVAL AVIATOR: Stepped up in class last time out for trainer Joe Sharp and won with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure first off the claim. There’s plenty of early speed signed on, and it’s not illogical to think he’ll be going the right way late when others are tiring.

Kokopelli
Sassy Melissa
Makin My Move

#3 KOKOPELLI: Hasn’t been seen in more than a year but returns for patient connections that boast strong numbers with similar stock. This race seems very heavy on early speed, which could set up perfectly for Joel Rosario and this one-run closer; #6 SASSY MELISSA: Is another closer, and one that has a win and a second in two starts at this route. She was a fast-closing second last time out with a troubled trip, and smooth sailing would make her a major player here; #1 MAKIN MY MOVE: Interests me most of the early speed horses and could capitalize on the inside draw. She wired an OK field last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to run second in a minor stakes race earlier this week.

Eminent Victor
Skims
Koala Princess

#6 EMINENT VICTOR: Hits me as the more logical of the two Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 3 Lake George. She came back running off a long break to take a stakes race at Belmont and should get plenty of pace to chase in this spot. Prat knows her well, and horse and rider should be flying late; #8 SKIMS: Hasn’t gotten a legitimate pace in either of her two graded stakes tries to date but should get one here. That alone is enough for me to consider this daughter of Frankel a threat, and the recent local bullet drill is also noteworthy; #4 KOALA PRINCESS: Was the betting favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where she was beaten less than three lengths. We haven’t seen her since, but this barn does very well with horses coming back from long breaks and her best effort would put her right there.

R10

Let Her Inspire U
Leeloo
Fancy Feline

#8 LET HER INSPIRE U: Hinted at some potential last year and came back running off the bench with an easy score last month at Belmont. She should be able to sit just off the pace and have first run turning for home, which would give her every chance at a second straight victory; #7 LEELOO: Hasn’t run since March, but returns for a new conditioner and comes in off of a very fast four-furlong gate work at Keeneland. She was favored in a stakes race over the winter and has every right to be a more-developed horse in her comeback race; #6 FANCY FELINE: Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and could get a lot of pace in front of her. Perhaps her best isn’t good enough to win, but as one of only a few closers in a race with lots of speed, she’s one I’d use underneath in vertical exotics to end the Friday program.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/21/22)

Posted on July 19, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915.20

The Grand Slam is a wager that’s very, very useful in certain situations. If you like a horse in the payoff leg, it’s a way to extract value out of that runner. Additionally, it’s a cheap way for beginning or novice horseplayers to get some fun out of a longer wager, since one only needs to have a horse run third or better in the first three races to stay alive.

There are some days where it’s not as attractive of a bet. However, the Thursday program, headlined by what looks like a two-horse race in the Rick Violette, caters to it. My advice: Single one of those horses there, take some stances in earlier legs, and fire away.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was counting my money at the three-eighths pole of the eighth race, as Mischievous Diane looked set to swoop by the early pace-setters. However, she flattened out, and I dropped $19.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My $3 Grand Slam ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 2 with 3,6 with 2,6 with 4. Additionally, because I like two prices in the Thursday finale, I’ll play $2 doubles starting with #3 COINAGE and #4 DAKOTA GOLD in the ninth and ending with #1 TELL ME WHEN and #7 STRUT in the nightcap.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Perceived, Race 2
Longshot: Tell Me When, Race 10

Up to the Mark
Drink the Wind
Frat Pack

#6 UP TO THE MARK: Has been training forwardly for Todd Pletcher ahead of his debut. He sold for $450,000 back in 2020, there’s plenty of class on both sides of his pedigree, and the cushy outside draw is a plus; #1 DRINK THE WIND: Cuts back in distance after running third going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. Both of his races this year have been fine, and the local four-furlong move last week is encouraging; #2 FRAT PACK: Will get plenty of betting money as a first-time starter from Chad Brown’s barn, but I have some doubts. The long tenure at Monmouth with Brown’s second string is often a red flag, and while the works time out OK, I’ll need more value than I’m likely to get.

Perceived
Grumps Little Tots
Kumar

#5 PERCEIVED: Has won three of his last five starts, including a similar handicap race late in the Belmont meet. His late-running style should fit this race like a glove given an abundance of early speed elsewhere in the field, and when Rudy Rodriguez gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #1 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Was protected from the claim in his first start off the bench, and for good reason, as he rallied to win his 2022 debut. He’s run well up here in the past, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Charlton Baker; #2 KUMAR: Is another coming in off of a win, having won a photo finish against $20,000 claimers in early-June. Two turns has been a bit of a problem, but I like that he doesn’t need the lead to run well, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip.

Hometown (MTO)
Icarus
Cash in a Flash

#5 ICARUS: Takes a massive drop in class after being beaten three lengths against far tougher competition. That day’s runner-up came right back to win last week, and these connections aren’t shy about dropping way down in order to win; #3 CASH IN A FLASH: Ran too poorly to be true last time out over Gulfstream Park’s synthetic surface. This is actually his first start on the grass, and he may benefit from being the lone speed horse in this inner turf event; #6 ST. JOE LOUIS: Has been favored in every one of his nine career starts and has burned money in eight of them. He’s been odds-on in four starts this season with no luck and ships in from Monmouth for Chad Brown, which isn’t often a profitable move.

Run Poppy
Smart Prize
Clear the Deck

#1 RUN POPPY: Debuted running second at Churchill Downs and has a right to improve at second asking. Both of this dam’s foals to race are winners, and offspring of this sire tend to be precocious, too; #2 SMART PRIZE: Rallied to be third in his debut, where he didn’t break well. Flavien Prat will be in the saddle, and if there’s hesitation here, it’s only because I think he really wants to go longer given his stamina-heavy pedigree; #6 CLEAR THE DECK: Has an experience edge over most of this field and has run third in both of those outings. The most recent work over the Oklahoma track was solid, and Ken McPeek trainees tend to move forward as they get older.

Aidanike
Domineer
Greatest Love

#2 AIDANIKE: Has won three of her last four and goes first off the claim in this event. The early pace should be solid, and she’s shown she’s very tough with the stalking trip she’s likely to get in her local debut; #5 DOMINEER: Represents the most likely pace presence and drops in class for a high-percentage barn. Stamina is definitely a question mark, but there’s also a chance she’s fast enough to clear out of the gate and get comfortable; #4 GREATEST LOVE: Drops in half after a $25,000 claim, and while that should help, this isn’t an easy race for the level and she hasn’t won since last September at Monmouth. She fits on speed figures, but her likely price hits me as an underlay.

Ee Yah
Jeremy’s Jet
Three Zero

#2 EE YAH: Picked a tough spot to debut last month at Monmouth, when he ran into Great Navigator. That one ran second in the Grade 3 Sanford, the third-place finisher has come back to win, and this one seems to be facing a lesser group here; #8 JEREMY’S JET: Ships in from Churchill Downs, where he’s already run four times in two months. That experience could prove valuable, and he’s shown some early zip in Kentucky against some decent groups; #7 THREE ZERO: Has improved with every start, including a third-place finish in a rich race at Churchill late last month. His lone local drill was a strong one, and another step forward would give him a shot at a bit of a price.

Big Package
Maxwell Esquire
Artemus Citylimits

#6 BIG PACKAGE: Is a stone closer in a turf sprint that seems full of early speed. He’s 2-for-3 with a second over this turf course, has every right to fire a big shot third off the bench, and retains Jose Ortiz when he probably had several options; #3 MAXWELL ESQUIRE: Is another closer to watch, and while he needs a lot to go right, that scenario could easily materialize. His lone poor run here came against a very strong field in a stakes race late in the meet, and Mike Maker excels with high-priced claiming horses like this one; #5 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS: Is a hard-knocking, hard-trying gelding with 18 top-three finishes in 19 lifetime starts. He’s shown an ability to be effective sitting just off the pace, and that could prove helpful given some of the speedballs set to go postward.

Captainsdaughter
Reigning Chick
U Guys Are No Fun

#2 CAPTAINSDAUGHTER: Gets a tepid nod in what hit me as a puzzling race to handicap. She hasn’t won in a while, but her stretch of minor awards includes several stakes placings, and perhaps she’ll appreciate what looks like class relief; #6 REIGNING CHICK: Got some black type at this distance when third in the Busanda back in January. Her two efforts since then were clunkers, but a return to that form off a three-month break would give her a big chance; #1 U GUYS ARE NO FUN: Was a close-up second last time out at Finger Lakes and runs for a barn that has enjoyed great success both here and there. However, she has a history of slow starts, and while the distance gives her time to get settled, the rail draw is a legitimate concern.

Dakota Gold
Coinage
Timbuktu

#4 DAKOTA GOLD: Made his return a winning one downstate, when he captured a similar stakes race in his first try since November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s looked like a good horse since breaking his maiden here last summer, and I’m expecting a step forward second off the bench for Danny Gargan in the Rick Violette; #3 COINAGE: Was third in the Rick Violette last year when it was a sprint for 2-year-olds. Since then, he’s won a pair of stakes races going long on the turf, and this is a far cry from chasing Annapolis home on Independence Day; #5 TIMBUKTU: Has improved on figures with each start and broke his maiden in his lone prior try at this route. The return to two turns could clear the way for future improvement, and it’s not often we see a Brad Cox trainee at 8-1 in a stakes race.

R10

Tell Me When
Strut
American Rockette

#1 TELL ME WHEN: Is one of two prices I feel have big chances in the Thursday finale. She was a decent second in her debut and has a pedigree that screams turf. Her dam is kin to a stakes-winning turf sprinter, and the lofty 346 turf Tomlinson figure hints she’ll love the lawn; #7 STRUT: Debuts for a barn whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, she comes in off of three straight bullets, and the dam’s three prior foals to run are all winners (including Grade 3-placed sprinter Chasing Time); #6 AMERICAN ROCKETTE: Is another bred in the purple debuting for a barn whose horses are known more for patience than precocity. She’s a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winner Frank’s Rockette, and the works hint she’s got some talent.