horse | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/20/22)

Posted on July 18, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $934.20

I strongly recommend going to places that challenge you and make you feel small. It’s a surreal experience that’s tough to describe, but I’ll give it a shot.

Last summer, on the way to Mammoth Lakes for a wedding, my girlfriend and I stopped at Yosemite National Park. The winding roads through the mountains will help anyone looking for perspective find it (provided, of course, you also stay focused behind the wheel).

On Sunday, we went to Angel Island State Park. It’s California’s answer to Ellis Island, but with a significant history of its detainees being kept in suboptimal conditions while they awaited processing and entry into the United States (or, in some cases, deportation back to Asia). Chinese carvings in the walls reflect poems written by those who lived in those buildings, and they’re still visible 100 years later.

Put it this way: Bad beats at the racetrack feel awfully insignificant by comparison.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I didn’t get rich in Sunday’s fifth race, but I turned a modest $18 post-scratch investment into $36.20. That exacta would’ve paid considerably better the other way, but it beats losing.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the eighth race, where #9 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE hits me as a formidable foe despite not being the likely favorite. In addition to a $10 win bet on that one, I’ll also key her in $3 exactas above #1 SHORT SUMMER DRESS/#1A PIECE OF MY HEART, #2 SMASH TICKET, and #8 MOVIE MOXY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $19.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mariah’s Fortune, Race 2
Longshot: Darknstormy, Race 5

Pistol Whipped
Iranistan
Down Royal

#3 PISTOL WHIPPED: Has finished first or second in all but two of his starts since the beginning of 2021. Most recently, he was a distant second behind top steeplechaser Snap Decision in the Grade 1 Iroquois, and a similar effort would make him tough to top in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick; #7 IRANISTAN: Did not finish the Iroquois but won two in a row prior to that, including a win over Snap Decision in a Grade 2. He won here twice two summers ago, and his best effort gives him a big chance; #2 DOWN ROYAL: Has won two minor stakes races in a row and figures to be prominent from the jump. This is a significant class test, but she’s done more than enough to merit a look in the first steeplechase race of the summer.

Mariah’s Fortune
Babyitsgoldoutside
Evoking

#4 MARIAH’S FORTUNE: Takes a big drop in class for this non-winners-of-two claiming event. It wasn’t long ago she was 13-1 in the Grade 3 Fantasy, but these are very aggressive connections and this is probably the weakest bunch she’s ever run against; #6 BABYITSGOLDOUTSIDE: Cuts back to a sprint for a savvy barn and merits a look at a price. She’s been competitive at this level in the past, and this outfit has already found the winner’s circle multiple times at this meet; #1 EVOKING: Cruised home in her debut last spring and went to the sidelines for nearly 14 months. She’s worked consistently ahead of her return, but the rail draw and the long break are both significant concerns, and she’s likely to take plenty of betting money.

Aunt Virginia
Izeamalibumoon
Gracefully Wild

#5 AUNT VIRGINIA: Nearly pulled off a 40-1 upset in her unveiling at Delaware Park. That day’s winner, Silvery Rill, can run a bit, and the transfer to a trainer hitting at a 35% clip with new acquisitions cannot be ignored; #7 IZEAMALIBUMOON: Raced greenly when third in her debut at Monmouth Park and completes a 1-2 punch for trainer Jose Camejo (who also saddles my top pick). She earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure that day and may improve with experience; #8 GRACEFULLY WILD: Has run second three times in as many 2022 starts, including a pair of turf sprints. She’s shown she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and she could sit a dream trip just off the pace.

Epona’s Dream (MTO)
Pure Bode
Out of Sight

#3 PURE BODE: Goes third off the bench and stretches back out to two turns, which should be to her benefit. Her win last year at this route was very solid, and top turf rider Jose Lezcano knows her very, very well; #1 OUT OF SIGHT: Has yet to run a bad race in 2022, a stretch that includes a pair of nice wins two and three back. Her last-out third at this level was fine, and the lone question mark is the two-turn route of ground; #6 INSTINCTIVE: Has shown an ability to rally from off the pace and should benefit from the likely race shape. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and she may be the one they have to hold off late.

U Glow Girl
Darknstormy
Callie’s Passion

#2 U GLOW GIRL: Debuts for Brad Cox after a very strong four-furlong gate drill at Keeneland. Her dam and second dam are both stakes winners, and young sire Girvin is off to a very strong start; #8 DARKNSTORMY: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez, who doesn’t work his horses quickly. That can make his first-time starters tricky reads, but her dam was a stakes-placed sprinter and the daughter of stakes-winning sprinter Tangier Sound, so there’s plenty to like; #1 CALLIE’S PASSION: Is one of two in this field trained by Joe Sharp and comes in off of a five-furlong bullet work. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a debuting 2-year-old, but this half-sister to Grade 3 winner Scotus has every right to be a runner.

Happy Farm
Shadow Matter
Aristocratic

#6 HAPPY FARM: Is a really easy horse to root for, with 11 wins and 24 top-three finishes in 32 career starts. His last-out win has aged beautifully, as runner-up Three Two Zone came back to top a strong field Sunday. Add in he could be in the garden spot just off the pace early, and I think he looks very tough; #3 SHADOW MATTER: Hasn’t won in a while but drops to what’s probably the right level. He’s been facing much faster horses of late, and Luis Saez lands here when he probably had plenty of options; #5 ARISTOCRATIC: Has blazing early speed and goes first off the claim for a barn that hits at a 27% clip with new acquisitions. He may not be alone on the front end, but he’ll likely be the one they have to catch turning for home.

Hey There
Libretto
Mrs. Green

#3 HEY THERE: Just missed last time out downstate and looms large given her forward progression for a world-class barn. She showed more early zip than ever before last time out, which gives Flavien Prat plenty of options here; #9 LIBRETTO: Has been one-paced going longer and cuts back to a sprint for the first time. Joel Rosario rides and may drop back before coming with one run at a price; #6 MRS. GREEN: Was fourth in the race my top pick exits and makes her third career start here. She’s another that could sit back and come charging late, and there’s enough speed signed on to potentially make that trip a winning one.

Mischievous Diane
Smash Ticket
Movie Moxy

#9 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE: Came back running off the bench last time out, when she drubbed an overmatched allowance field and earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. She showed plenty in 2021 to hint this race wasn’t a fluke, and the outside post gives Dylan Davis plenty of options; #2 SMASH TICKET: Romped by 11 lengths last time out at Lone Star Park and has since joined the Rob Atras barn. She was third in last year’s Grade 2 Sorrento at Del Mar and may have enough talent and early zip to overcome a tricky inside draw; #8 MOVIE MOXY: Hasn’t run for 10 months but has been working steadily for George Weaver, who does well with similar stock. She was fourth in a pretty fast race for the level here last summer, and if she’s ready to run, a similar effort could get her a piece of this one.

Classic Lynne
Solib
She’s a Mia

#4 CLASSIC LYNNE: Scratched out of a race on Sunday in order to make her 2022 debut in the Suzie O’Cain. Her best race to date, by far, came in her only turf route. Running here hints at some confidence, and I think she’s ready to spring a mild upset; #1 SOLIB: Is the other Joe Sharp trainee in the field and could inherit the early lead by default. She just missed last time and was claimed out of that race. Inside speed has always been tough on this turf course; #5 SHE’S A MIA: Is a heavy morning line favorite, but I have my doubts. She’s run second twice downstate, and those efforts were fine, but hardly ones that tower over her competition. She wouldn’t be a gigantic shock if she won, but 7/5 hits me as a significant underlay.

R10

Super Quality
Wachtel entry
Blinding Light

#3 SUPER QUALITY: Responded to the drop in class last time out with the best effort of his young career. Since then, he’s fired a bullet drill over the Oklahoma track, and Saez will be back aboard in the Wednesday finale; WACHTEL ENTRY: I’m most intrigued by #1A PISTOL OR SHOTGUN, a colt bred up and down for the grass. His dam is a full sister to the dam of a Group 1 winner overseas, and it’s entirely possible he’s wanted the lawn all along; #6 BLINDING LIGHT: Is another entered by George Weaver, who also conditions my top pick. He was second against straight maidens on dirt at Gulfstream in his debut, but hasn’t run since March, and if this 2-1 favorite is so well-meant, why does this barn run two?

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/22)

Posted on July 15, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $916

My motivations for putting out as much content as I do are pretty wide-ranging. Obviously, I want to do well, but I also want to make sure I’m providing something of value to horseplayers of all skill levels. Whether you’re at Saratoga for one afternoon or firing every day, I want to put stuff together that you find worthwhile.

I got an absolutely phenomenal text message from a friend Saturday morning saying he finally understood the Pick Five after reading my article previewing the sequence. As nice as it is to pick winners and give out successful tickets, texts like that are just as big a rush.

I said it yesterday and meant it: It’s the duty of every person with a platform to use it in ways that welcome others into horse racing and help them learn more. If you’re out there, you have that platform, and you’re not using it for that purpose, it’s a wasted opportunity.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We got to my Pick Five single, who unfortunately didn’t kick on after looking ready to pounce going around the far turn. I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, which sure looks like a pace meltdown waiting to happen. I’ll box #5 YARROW, #8 NEURO, and #10 ATHENRY in $2 exactas, and I’ll use them to finish off $2 doubles that start in the fourth with #4 TRUCULENT and #6 TWO THIRTY FIVE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Big Invasion, Race 8
Longshot: Neuro, Race 5

Miracle Mike
Conman
Curly Larry and Mo

#8 MIRACLE MIKE: Lost nothing in his debut, when he ran second behind one of the better 2-year-olds we saw at the Belmont meet. This doesn’t seem like a bad group, either, but any sort of step forward from this Todd Pletcher trainee would likely make him tough to beat; #7 CONMAN: Debuts for Mark Casse and has posted a string of strong drills ahead of his unveiling. Most recently, the $300,000 auction purchase earned a five-furlong bullet earlier this month downstate; #5 CURLY LARRY AND MO: Has put forth a series of solid drills at Keeneland for a small barn that’s hit at a 26% clip to date in 2022. You have to dig a little to find it, but there’s some class in his bottom-side pedigree and it wouldn’t be stunning if he turned out to be a runner.

Mommasgottarun
Waters of Merom
Gris Tormenta

#6 MOMMASGOTTARUN: Runs for a tag for the first time after a failed try in stakes company north of the border last month. She ran into a pair of tough fields here last summer, but there are no monsters here and the cushy outside draw should be a big plus; #5 WATERS OF MEROM: Gets her claiming tag cut in half after running third for $50,000 at Belmont. This is a significant cutback in distance for the Linda Rice trainee, and it’s fair to wonder what effect that will have, but she’s got tons of back class and fits on figures; #1 GRIS TORMENTA: Merits a look underneath at a price as the lone closer in a race full of early speed. Her best is probably a cut below what’s necessary to win this, but the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

To the Tune
Escapewithfriends
Crosstalk

#9 TO THE TUNE: Almost certainly needed her first start in nearly 11 months, and her connections protected her from being claimed in that spot. She ran well several times against similar-level foes last summer, and a return to that form gives her a big chance in this wide-open event; #7 ESCAPEWITHFRIENDS: Hasn’t been seen since November but has been working steadily at Monmouth Park ahead of her return. She was second against maiden special weight foes here on turf last summer, and if that form goes to dirt, she’s got a shot; #10 CROSSTALK: Adds blinkers and should show speed from the outside. Her lone dirt start saw her run fifth at Tampa Bay Downs, and this is probably the weakest group she’s run against to date.

Two Thirty Five
Truculent
Crafty Daddy

#6 TWO THIRTY FIVE: Has won back-to-back races downstate, including his last-out effort where he posted a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s capable of running big races, seems to have found a home at this level, and has attracted Joel Rosario for this two-turn event; #4 TRUCULENT: Hasn’t won since December but has been running against non-claimers for most of that stretch. Mike Maker claimed him out of his last race at Churchill Downs, and he has a history of excelling with highly-priced new acquisitions; #7 CRAFTY DADDY: Had every right to need his first race in more than a year, but instead ran a credible second at this level. He was claimed that day, blinkers go back on, and a logical step forward would put him right there.

Rice entry (MTO)
Neuro
Yarrow

#8 NEURO: Makes his first start since November but gets an ideal setup for his 2022 debut. There seems to be a metric ton of early speed in this field, and he’s shown a big late kick. If he’s ready and gets a clean trip beneath Javier Castellano, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #5 YARROW: Graduated out of the maiden ranks with a big late run to prevail by a head downstate. He faces winners for the first time, and I’m not quite sure what sort of horses he beat that day, but he’s another with the right running style in this speed-heavy field; #10 ATHENRY: Draws a terrible post in this event but comes in off of a nice seven-furlong win downstate. That day’s runner-up came back to run reasonably well on opening day, and he could get first run behind tiring pacesetters turning for home.

Road to Success
Brunate
Victory Built

#4 ROAD TO SUCCESS: Was very wide last time out at Belmont, but re-rallied to finish second beaten less than a length. He was claimed that day by a barn that’s very strong with new acquisitions, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options; #10 BRUNATE: Has stepped forward in each of his last several starts and has hit the board in two starts at this level. While he’s 0-for-3 here, he’s also never been worse than third in that trio of outings, and Dylan Davis seems to fit him like a glove; #9 VICTORY BUILT: Comes back to the right level after misfiring against starter allowance company last month. His win two back in the mud at Belmont was sharp, and that day’s runner-up came right back to score at next asking.

Gallina (MTO)
New Ginya
Classic Lynne

#5 NEW GINYA: Didn’t get the best setup last time, but closed anyway and was beaten just a neck. She’s still a fairly-inexperienced horse, with just three career starts. She should get a better setup here and may be improving for a barn whose horses have been firing all year long; #11 CLASSIC LYNNE: Returns to the races for the first time since October, and trainer Joe Sharp’s numbers off of long layoffs are excellent. She gets Lasix for the first time, and while the post hurts, she hinted at some talent before heading to the sidelines late last year; #9 RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA: Will get plenty of support solely because of trainer Chad Brown, and she did break her maiden in a decent race last time out. However, Monmouth works are a big red flag for me, and she lost to a few of these runners late last year. She’s not without a chance, but she’ll likely be too short a price for me to stomach.

Big Invasion
Asymmetric
Nobals

#8 BIG INVASION: Makes sense in a lot of different ways. He’s the lone true closer in a race with a lot of early speed, he’s won four in a row, he’s beaten several of these rivals in the past, and anything close to his usual effort would make him a very formidable favorite; #7 ASYMMETRIC: Was second to my top pick in the Paradise Creek but may be eligible to improve. He was a run-off in that race, which doubled as his first outing since September. If Wesley Ward can settle him down a bit, perhaps this colt can trim that 3 1/4-length margin a bit; #4 NOBALS: Comes in on a four-race win streak for Larry Rivelli, whose turf sprinters always merit respect. This gelding (make up your own jokes about the name, because I sure am) has also shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could prove very helpful.

Sound Money
Night Time
Three Two Zone

#4 SOUND MONEY: Exits a pair of seconds in graded stakes races behind some very, very nice horses. His back class is evident, this seven-furlong trip hits him right between the eyes, and he should sit an ideal trip just off the speed; #2 NIGHT TIME: Ran too badly to be true in the Grade 2 True North, when he may have bounced off a nice win in his 2022 debut. He likes this surface, has enough speed to be prominent early, and may be an overlay given the last-out clunker; #6 THREE TWO ZONE: Disappointed when second at 4/5 last time out following a smashing score two back in his first start for Ray Handal. That two-back effort netted him a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, and a return to that form would put him right there in a very classy race for the level.

R10

Our Jessica
Lola Lola
Jannie Mae

#5 OUR JESSICA: Is probably in “now or never” territory as the favorite in the Sunday finale. She ran second in her initial start for a $40,000 tag and was second in her lone two-turn turf start back in April at Aqueduct. If she doesn’t win, it’s anyone’s guess who does; #8 LOLA LOLA: Hasn’t shown a lot despite being bet in a pair of maiden special weight races. However, this daughter of Tiznow tries two turns for the first time and she’s bred to love such a route. The presence of top-tier turf rider Jose Lezcano doesn’t hurt, either; #1 JANNIE MAE: Goes second off the bench and may be a big price after not showing much in her 2022 debut. However, she ran into better horses all of last year and has experience going two turns on the lawn. That’s enough to merit an underneath look in a puzzling conclusion to the first weekend of the meet.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/22)

Posted on July 14, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $946

The Grade 3 Sanford is one of two graded stakes races on the program, and it’s one of my favorite races of the meet for several reasons. There’s plenty of history here. It’s the race where Man o’ War was defeated by the appropriately-named Upset, and a pair of 1970’s winners (Secretariat and Affirmed) went on to win the Triple Crown the following year.

This year’s renewal drew a huge field of 12 and several notable storylines. Todd Pletcher could win the Sanford a ninth time with Forte or Major Dude. Andiamo a Firenze will look to emulate older brother Firenze Fire, who won the Sanford in 2017. Trainers Tom Amoss and Brad Cox, meanwhile, each saddle promising first-out winners shipping in from Churchill Downs.

2-year-old racing is one of the many things that makes Saratoga special. Here’s hoping we see something memorable Saturday afternoon.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: American Pure lost all chance at the start of the seventh race, when he nearly fell on his face out of the gate. Scratches reduced my losses to $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Unfortunately, I think the back half of the card looks extremely chalky. This includes both graded stakes races. However, I do think there’s money to be made on the early Pick Five. I previewed that on PlayFecta (Catena Media’s horse racing site), and my 50-cent ticket reads as follows: 1,2,5 with 6,7 with 4 with 2,8 with 3,4,5,7,9.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Robyn and Eli, Race 3
Longshot: Raining Candy, Race 11

North Pole
Never Change
Readyseekgo

#5 NORTH POLE: Took a significant step forward last time out in his first start beyond a mile. To say this million-dollar baby hasn’t panned out is an understatement, but early speed going two turns, in a field of horses that don’t like passing others, could prove tough to beat; #1 NEVER CHANGE: Takes a big drop for Todd Pletcher after a pair of clunkers in turf routes. He did run in a pair of pretty classy races as a 2-year-old, and blinkers going in is a notable adjustment; #2 READYSEEKGO: Is another going two turns on dirt for the first time. He should certainly be prominent early beneath aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche, and perhaps he holds on for a piece of it.

Chloe Rose
Tea Olive
Closing Deals

#7 CHLOE ROSE: Hasn’t won since October but loves Saratoga. She boasts a win and a second in two local starts and has been competitive at this level downstate. Blinkers go back on, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip; #6 TEA OLIVE: Gets protected second off the bench following a runner-up finish against $50,000 claimers at Belmont. She could conceivably move forward here, and this trainer/jockey combination already boasts a win at this stand; #1 CLOSING DEALS: Shortens up a bit after running third at this level last month. The inside draw isn’t ideal, but she’s shown she has some early zip and may be able to mitigate that issue with a sharp break.

Robyn and Eli
Cape Cod Causeway
Jocosity

#4 ROBYN AND ELI: Has run second in all three outings and gets Lasix for the first time here. She had every right to need her last-out effort off a long break, but nearly prevailed over stakes foes. She’ll be a very short price, but looms large; #7 CAPE COD CAUSEWAY: Is one of a few that exits a key race with several next-out winners. Her two-back effort, though, came over a similar two-turn route, and it was arguably her best race to date. She seems live at a big price; #11 JOCOSITY: Draws a terrible post but seems to have plenty of potential in her debut. Her dam was stakes-placed on the lawn, she’s been working well, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

Higher Quality
Cryo
Eagle in Love

#2 HIGHER QUALITY: Takes a big drop for Chad Brown off of an effort that’s too poor to be true. He’s bred up and down for this two-turn route, and anything close to his two-back win would likely get him the money; #8 CRYO: Stretches back out to two turns, and that’s been the configuration for some of his best efforts. He has the speed to sit a great trip just off the pace and could stand to benefit if the heavy favorite misfires; #4 EAGLE IN LOVE: Ran second in his first start at this level, and it wasn’t long ago he was 5-1 in a $100,000 stakes race. He has a history of troubles out of the gate, but a clean start coupled with his early speed could make him a pace presence here.

Rally Squirrel
Front Line Dancer
Mr. Kringle

#9 RALLY SQUIRREL: Has run well in three starts at this level downstate and should relish a return to two-turns. His two wins have come over similar configurations at Aqueduct and Gulfstream, and his flexible running style could be a big, big plus; #2 FRONT LINE DANCER: Didn’t get a great setup last time, when he rallied from 10th into a pretty slow pace and was beaten less than two lengths. Deep closers and the inner turf don’t often mix, but there seems to be some speed signed on, and the rider switch to Irad is a big one; #5 MR. KRINGLE: Hasn’t won since a starter allowance score here last year, but he fires the same shot every time out and can’t be ignored. Flavien Prat has ridden him to two second-place finishes downstate, and he’s done some strong running here.

Alcools
Flamingo Hawk
Long Term Thinking

#8 ALCOOLS: Has won two in a row over similar company and goes for the hat trick here. For a seven-furlong sprint, there isn’t a ton of apparent early speed signed on. I think he could get comfortable early and prove tough to catch; #1 FLAMINGO HAWK: Hasn’t won in a while and take a big drop in class for a barn that had a long, long meet here a season ago. Anything close to his mid-2021 Gulfstream form gives him a big shot, but those races were a long, long time ago; #5 LONG TERM THINKING: Has hit the board in 19 of 26 career starts and just missed at this level earlier this month at Churchill Downs. He’d definitely benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace, and this barn tends to spot claiming horses very, very well.

Reinvestment Risk
Baby Yoda
Disco Pharoah

#5 REINVESTMENT RISK: Exits back-to-back seconds in Grade 1 races and headlines this loaded optional claiming event. I’m not entirely sure why he’s running here (as opposed to a stakes race), but we’ve seen him run second in four Grade 1 events, and anything close to that bests this group; #9 BABY YODA: Won a pair of starter allowances before finishing a distant fourth behind Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 2 True North. He didn’t break well that day, so he has an excuse, but if this one’s so well-meant, why does Bill Mott also enter #2 NOVA RAGS?; #1 DISCO PHAROAH: Did not have an easy trip last time when fifth beaten a length in a similar spot at Belmont. The rail draw isn’t ideal for horses that tend to find trouble, but he’s shown plenty of talent for a strong outfit and has every chance to snag a piece of this with clear sailing.

Bleeker Street
Technical Analysis
Rougir

#3 BLEEKER STREET: Is a perfect 7-for-7 and seems like the best of Chad Brown’s bunch in the Grade 1 Diana. Two of her stablemates have speed, which should set up well for her late kick, and this nine-furlong trip fits her like a glove; #1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Went 2-for-2 here last summer and comes in off a win in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico. She did have a perfect trip that day on an easy lead, but the rail draw lends itself to her running style and perhaps she’s at her best right now; #4 ROUGIR: Didn’t fire in the Grade 1 New York, when she was fifth behind Bleeker Street as the 3/5 favorite. Perhaps she bounced off of a nice score in the Grade 3 Beaugay, and remember, she won the prestigious Group 1 Prix de l’Opera last fall in France.

Naval Aviator (MTO)
Fort Ticonderoga
Forever Souper

#9 FORT TICONDEROGA: Turned heads with a swift win off the bench last month at Belmont and tries two turns and winners for the first time. Shug McGaughey’s horses tend to improve with experience and foundation, and I’m not sure this is the best race for the level we’ll see this summer; #3 FOREVER SOUPER: Is going the right way for Mark Casse, having won two in a row at Gulfstream. He’s shown an abundance of early speed and sure looks like the one they’ll be chasing early; NBS ENTRY: Both of these runners are intriguing and could offer value. #1 SETNA THE WISE exits a third-place finish against stakes company, and that day’s winner has since won again. #1A DRIPPING GOLD, meanwhile, turned heads (literally) with a debut win here last summer and goes second off the bench.

R10

Forte
Mo Strike
Valenzan Day

#4 FORTE: Was bet like he couldn’t lose in his debut and ran to the billing, coasting home clear by nearly eight lengths. Todd Pletcher trainees have won the Grade 3 Sanford eight times, and this one gives the outfit a big chance at number nine; #6 MO STRIKE: Showed some professionalism when stalking the pace and winning in his unveiling at Churchill Downs. There should be plenty of pace for him to chase here, and given his pedigree, he may be one to watch as races get longer; #12 VALENZAN DAY: Had an eventful journey when third in the Tremont Stakes last month. His two starts give him an experience edge over most of this group, and the outside draw should allow Joel Rosario to keep him out of trouble.

R11

Maybe Later (MTO)
Diva Ready
Raining Candy

#4 DIVA READY: Takes a big drop into a non-winners-of-two claiming event after running fourth across the border at Woodbine. This well-traveled filly makes her fourth start at a fourth different track and could capitalize on class relief in the Saturday finale; #8 RAINING CANDY: Almost certainly needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first run since November. Her lone win came at this route last summer, and I think we’ll see a significant step forward at a pretty big price; #6 BELLA CONCHITA: Runs for a tag for the first time and may very well inherit the lead in a race that seems light on early zip. She’s been running longer for trainer Cherie DeVaux, so we know this distance won’t get her beat.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/22)

Posted on July 13, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $970

If you followed me this spring, you saw I did some writing work for The Paulick Report. I’m fortunate to count several members of their staff as friends. One of them, Eclipse Award winner Joe Nevills, invited me onto this week’s episode of The Friday Show.

We discussed what goes into my work at Saratoga, as well as some key positive and negative angles that I look for in my handicapping. We fit a lot into about 15 minutes and would have gone a lot longer if not for a producer being a stickler about a strict time limit (it’s a good thing I like HIM, too).

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Fast Corey was outsprinted early in the finale and never had a shot. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to extract some value out of my strongest opinion. I think #4 AMERICAN PURE is the most likely winner on the program. I’ll have a $15 win ticket on him, and I’ll also single him in a $5 cold double that ends with #7 STATIC FIRE in the eighth (the Coronation Cup). Finally, I’ll start a $1 Pick Three in the sixth with #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS and #7 RUSE, single American Pure in the seventh, and finish with #3 TWILIGHT GLEAMING, #6 DERRYNANE, and Static Fire.

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: American Pure, Race 7
Longshot: Static Fire, Race 8

Maddie’s Grace
Camp Akeela
Im Just Kiddin

#3 MADDIE’S GRACE: Has been working slowly ahead of her debut, but this barn is sneaky with firsters and there’s reason to believe she can run. Her two half-siblings to race are both winners, her dam is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Tip Tap Tapizar, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride; #6 CAMP AKEELA: Comes in off a pretty big gate work at Churchill Downs for a trainer that can win with first-time starters. Offspring of the late Laoban tend to be precocious. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because the dam-side pedigree is mostly turf; #5 IM JUST KIDDIN: Is bred in the purple, being by Triple Crown winner Justify and out of the dam of Grade 1 winner Bar of Gold. She’s worked consistently ahead of her unveiling, but this barn’s runners tend to need a race or two to get going.

Remain Anonymous
Melting Snow
Customerexperience

#1 REMAIN ANONYMOUS: Hasn’t won in a while, but goes first off the claim for Brad Cox and has shown an affinity for this surface. Her lone local start was a win, and it helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #6 MELTING SNOW: Was claimed by Tom Amoss last month at Churchill and makes her local debut. Her late-2021 and early-2022 form would make her a major player here, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she found it in her first start for this outfit; #2 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE: Drops down in class after spending much of 2022 knocking heads with tougher competition downstate. She’s hit the board three times in as many local starts and won impressively at this level back in January at Aqueduct.

Curlin’s Wisdom (MTO)
Biondi
Whistler’s Honor

#4 BIONDI: May be in a “now or never” spot as what seems like the main speed in a turf route otherwise devoid of early zip. The inner turf course is kind to such situations, and Luis Saez has won lots of money putting speed horses on the lead; #3 WHISTLER’S HONOR: Was one-paced in his return off a long layoff and has every right to improve second off the bench. This is his first start around two turns, and his pedigree says such a journey should be right up his street; #5 MR. CONNECTICUT: Flopped when the blinkers were put on last time, and they promptly come off here. Joel Rosario, however, comes on, and this one would stand to benefit if my top pick is challenged early.

Actualize
Just Like This
Suppressor

#1 ACTUALIZE: Is one of many taking a significant class drop in this maiden claiming event. He’s repeatedly shown early speed over some boggy surfaces and has the zip to make the rail draw an asset. If he gets comfortable, he could prove tough to catch; #6 JUST LIKE THIS: Hammered for $250,000 in 2020 and is in for less than 10% of that in this spot. He debuted going a mile on turf, adds both Lasix and blinkers for Cox, and could step forward; #7 SUPPRESSOR: Is 0-for-12 but has been competitive against better groups with regularity. He was most recently third downstate for a $40,000 tag, and he should be forwardly placed early on.

Gooch Go Bragh
Al’s Prince
Lord of War

#2 GOOCH GO BRAGH: Was 4-1 in a $100,000 stakes race two starts back and now runs for a $35,000 claiming tag. Perhaps he’s not the horse he was in early-2022, but anything close gives him a big shot, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides when he likely had a few options; #10 AL’S PRINCE: Found starter allowance foes a bit too tough last time after breaking his maiden two back. That win came in his lone two-turn turf start to date, and while the post position is an obstacle, he may be talented enough to overcome it; #9 LORD OF WAR: Has shown some early speed against tougher groups, which could give him a favorable trip in his first start this year against claiming company. Dylan Davis enjoyed a stellar spring downstate and can be aggressive, so don’t be surprised if this one is on the pace at a bit of a price.

Ruse
Danzigwiththestars
Bar Fourteen

#7 RUSE: Played a key part in my best day ever when he won here at 9-1 last September. He hasn’t run a bad race since that performance, and his proven upstate New York form is enough to earn my nod in a tough optional claimer; #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS: Won here twice last summer and was also a credible fourth in a minor stakes race. He hasn’t won since his second local score, but his last-out third hints he could be rounding back into form, and Luis Saez riding back is a positive; #2 BAR FOURTEEN: Has woken up since going back to the turf this past May and might be the main early speed. Jose Lezcano is one of the top turf riders on the circuit, and at a minimum he should be a primary pace factor at a considerable price.

American Pure
I Am the Cash Man
Will E Sutton

#4 AMERICAN PURE: Threw in a clunker in a stakes-quality optional claimer last time out and drops way down the ladder. His wins two and three back were sharp, he’s been working well, and anything close to the 7/2 morning line hits me as a major overlay; #6 I AM THE CASH MAN: Provides the first “beware of Finger Lakes shippers” warning of the meet. Figures-wise, he stacks up reasonably well with this bunch, and it’s telling that Worrie takes a ride in for just one mount; #5 WILL E SUTTON: Drops down in class and should relish the shallower waters. He was less than 10-1 in a stakes race downstate two starts ago, and both of his wins have come at distances similar to this nine-furlong route.

Static Fire
Twilight Gleaming
Derrynane

#7 STATIC FIRE: Has done absolutely nothing wrong in two starts and has never trailed at any point of call. The last-out runner-up came right back to win, we know she likes this route, and I think she’s a very promising prospect; #3 TWILIGHT GLEAMING: Has never finished worse than second in seven lifetime starts and won last year’s Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. She merits respect, but on Beyer Speed Figures, she hasn’t moved forward the way I thought she might. Against this field, she may have to fire a career-best shot; #6 DERRYNANE: Is a closer who sometimes finds trouble but is a handful when she gets clear sailing. There’s certainly plenty of speed for her to chase in the Coronation Cup, and a pace meltdown isn’t out of the question.

Art Collector (MTO)
Set Piece
Public Sector

#1 SET PIECE: Is the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, and for good reason. Last year’s runner-up in the Grade 1 Fourstardave seems to run the same race every time out. In a race with plenty of speed on paper, that sort of effort makes him a formidable chalk; #7 PUBLIC SECTOR: Stepped forward in the Grade 3 Poker, when he rated off of a very slow early pace and still made up some ground late. He’s a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga and has every right to run a big one in his third start off a long layoff; #3 MIRA MISSION: Was a hard-luck second in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He’s certainly come to hand for trainer Ian Wilkes, and he’s got enough early speed to lay just off of what figures to be a solid pace.

R10

Rossa Veloce
Khali Magic
Shesawildjoker

#2 ROSSA VELOCE: Misfired first off the claim last time out, but she’s shown she’s not overly fond of Belmont Park. By contrast, she’s won at Saratoga, and she faces state-bred foes for the first time since a score at this level back in February; #3 KHALI MAGIC: Hasn’t won in a while but has been very competitive at this level all season long. She was a good second at this distance at Belmont two starts ago, and a similar effort in this spot gives her a big chance; #9 SHESAWILDJOKER: Won a stakes race last year and placed in two others, but went to the sidelines after a January clunker. She adds Lasix and has been working well for David Donk ahead of her return to the races.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/22; OPENING DAY)

Posted on July 12, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Last summer was the best summer of my career as a published handicapper. I led all members of the local media with 142 top-pick winners, those top-pick winners generated a positive ROI ($2.04, if you’re curious), and I turned a $277.10 profit in this bankroll section over the course of the meet.

In addition to the picks and analysis you can find in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com every day, I’ll be playing with a $1,000 bankroll and offering daily wagering insight. As usual, all wagers assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays.

Finally, one quick note before we get started. Juan Vazquez has two horses entered on today’s card. Pennsylvania just suspended him through Jan. 26, 2025, and used words like “grossly negligent, cruel, and abusive.” Why is he allowed to run here? NYRA needs to fix this, and fix this quickly.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: With the blessing of an editor working on deadline, we’ll focus on the Opening Day nightcap, which houses my best bet of the day. #5 FAST COREY drops in for a tag and has shown blazing early speed. I’ll keep it simple, play a $30 win ticket, and hope she makes every pole a winning one at or near the 7/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Fast Corey, Race 10
Longshot: Angitude, Race 7

Giocare
Bear Alley
Kershaw

#7 GIOCARE: Has precisely the right running style to perform well in a lid-lifter that seems loaded with early speed. This deep closer has run well at this level multiple times, got claimed back by Orlando Noda, and should be running well late when others may be pleading for the wire; #6 BEAR ALLEY: Comes in off of two straight wins at Churchill Downs and goes first off the claim for Bill Morey, who excels with new acquisitions. He makes sense, but it’s worth noting he’s 5-for-6 beneath the Twin Spires and 0-for-13 everywhere else; #9 KERSHAW: Drops in for a tag for the first time since February, when he won easily in a two-turn race at this level at Oaklawn. He’s another that should benefit from the likely race shape, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

Half a Chance
Chocolate Gelato
Two Minute Drill

#1 HALF A CHANCE: Is the lone runner with experience in the first 2-year-old race of the meet, and she did everything but win last time out. She was beaten less than a length, was five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since worked well twice at Keeneland; #6 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Hammered for $475,000 earlier this year and has been training steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The outside draw is a plus, and it wouldn’t be shocking if these connections had their first debutante of the season ready to go; #5 TWO MINUTE DRILL: Sold for $210,000 (seven times the sire’s stud fee) and is out of a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The works seem solid enough, and she may be a big enough price to provide value in vertical exotics.

No Burn (MTO)
High Tide
Grand Journey

#4 HIGH TIDE: Takes a significant class drop after a strong spring downstate. He topped starter allowance foes twice before finishing a fast-closing fourth against optional claiming foes. Jose Lezcano knows this one well and should get plenty of pace to chase; #9 GRAND JOURNEY: Topped $25,000 claimers last time out and climbs up the ladder here. This is a tough spot for the level, but he fits on figures, boasts considerable back class, and has enough early speed to work out an ideal trip; #2 BE HERE: Has won two in a row with a pair of wildly-different trips. He wired them last time out at Delaware Park after making up as many as 15 lengths two back. This high-percentage outfit must be respected.

Cheeky Tico (MTO)
Remote
Grand Cay

#3 REMOTE: Makes the most sense in a puzzling turf marathon. He was second at this distance downstate last time, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, and he should at least have enough tactical speed to be reasonably close early; #5 GRAND CAY: Adds blinkers for Shug McGaughey and was a bit wide last time when fourth behind a much-the-best winner. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, and perhaps the blinkers will get him a bit more engaged early; #1 TIZ A GIANT: Is bred to run all day long and makes his first marathon start here. He’s by Tiznow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and has every right to improve at a price against a group that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters.

Majority Partner
Tommy Gun
Catching Cupid

#3 MAJORITY PARTNER: Hasn’t started since April but has been working very well here and runs for a claiming tag for the first time. He showed speed against a better group last time, and he stands a big chance if he’s ready to fire; #4 TOMMY GUNN: Adds blinkers in his first start as a gelding. He’s another dropping into the maiden claiming rank for a sharp outfit, and Irad rides back; #2 CATCHING CUPID: Probably needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first try since November. Charlton Baker trainees tend to move forward second off the bench, and such an improvement may be enough in this wide-open sprint.

Life Changer (MTO)
King Moonracer
Just Say When

#9 KING MOONRACER: Merits respect as a closer in a race full of early speed. His 2022 debut off a long break was sharp, as he just missed when second at this level downstate. Castellano fits him well, and he’s the one they’ll have to hold off late; #4 JUST SAY WHEN: Has a win and two seconds from three starts and runs two straight races without a layoff line for the first time. He was second in a pretty fast turf sprint two back at Gulfstream and has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT: Benefited from a race that fell apart late to get out of the maiden ranks. This is a steep class hike, but the abundance of early zip in here may mean this one has a shot to pick up the pieces for a minor award at a big price.

Angitude
Tarabi
Gina Romantica

#4 ANGITUDE: Stretches out after a first-level allowance score at Churchill and has a running style that hints she’ll like this route. Smart money says inside speed will do well out of the new Wilson chute, and it’s tough to imagine this speedy daughter of Violence being taken back early; #7 TARABI: Has yet to run a bad race in her four-start career, one that includes a pair of minor awards in Grade 1 races. On talent, she more than fits here, but the outside draw could present a real obstacle given the extremely short run into the turn; #2 GINA ROMANTICA: Has a record that looks miles better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Beaumont, where no horse was beating Matareya. The third-place finisher from her last race has since come back to win, and while I unfortunately doubt we’ll get the 8-1 morning line price given the connections, she merits respect in the first stakes race of the 2022 season.

Customer List
Canisy
Santa Giulia

#6 CUSTOMER LIST: Was probably entered in the Penn Oaks just to make sure the race went. That event was won by the classy Haughty, and there are no such monsters here. She gets Lasix for the first time second off the bench, has posted two straight bullet drills, and looks well-meant for powerhouse connections; #1 CANISY: Just missed last time out after rating in an event completely devoid of early speed. There seems to be some pace to chase in here, and she’s got a big chance if Javier Castellano can work out a trip from the inside draw; #13 SANTA GIULIA: Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a look if she runs. She gets Lasix in her stateside debut after breaking her maiden overseas and, like my top pick, has posted back-to-back bullet works for Chad Brown.

Summer Promise
Just Cindy
Vedareo

#9 SUMMER PROMISE: Never looked like a loser in her debut, where she won by five lengths and ran to her lofty $500,000 price tag. Her lone recorded drill since that race was a smashing four-furlong move at Churchill, and she looms large for D. Wayne Lukas in the Grade 3 Schuylerville; #1 JUST CINDY: Showed some maturity at first asking, when she rallied from fourth to win going away. That’s not an easy thing for a debuting runner to do, and she may have developed quickly enough to overcome the rail draw against a speedy group; #4 VEDAREO: Was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut at Parx, which she won easily enough. The most recent works indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and when this barn comes up from Philadelphia with 2-year-olds, those runners are usually well-meant.

R10

Fast Corey
Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Rigby

#5 FAST COREY: Has posted insane early fractions in all three of her starts to date and runs for a tag for the first time. These are aggressive connections, so the drop doesn’t concern me, and I just cannot see any other runner coming close to this one early on. Such a scenario would make her very tough to catch late; #4 RIGBY: Nearly capitalized on the drop into the claiming ranks when a close second last month at Belmont. She wound up on the lead that day, but she’s also shown she can rate, which gives Luis Saez plenty of options; #9 QUEENS DANCER: Will be a big price after shipping in from Finger Lakes, but her lone turf start to date is probably the best race of her career. They went pretty fast early on that day, and it’s logical to think a return to the lawn will be to her benefit. Perhaps a win is too much to ask, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she hits the board at a large number in the Opening Day finale.