BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $648.50

Over the past few years, I’ve developed fun relationships with the people at Delta Downs in Louisiana. Track announcer Don Stevens has been incredibly kind to me, and the racing product there is fun to handicap. Some of my biggest Pick Four scores have come handicapping that track.

For various reasons, seeing photos out of Louisiana after Hurricane Laura came ashore has been jarring. 2020 didn’t need another way to make people suffer, and Delta wasn’t spared from the storm’s wrath. The tote board was destroyed, there was plenty of damage to the track, and at least one starting gate was flipped over.

I sincerely hope all people and horses that have to deal with this are okay. It’s been a historically tough year for a lot of folks, and I feel terrible for all who are affected by this in some way, shape, or form.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five was cancelled when a good, old-fashioned Saratoga monsoon swept through the area and moved all turf races to the main track.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Without knowing the track condition and the status of the turf course, I can’t dive in as enthusiastically as I’d like. However, if the seventh stays on turf, I’ll have a $20 win bet on #5 NEW YORK’S FINEST. I know a “horse for the course” when I see one, and a win here will give him six triumphs in eight local turf sprints.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Captain Bombastic, Race 1
Longshot: New York’s Finest, Race 7

R1

Captain Bombastic
Dream Bigger
Chowda

#2 CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC: Tried much tougher company last time out when fourth in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens earlier this month. He seems to have come into his own in the summer of his 3-year-old year, and his usual race would beat these; #5 DREAM BIGGER: Has won three stakes races for state-breds and was second in the maiden race that produced Tiz the Law a season ago. He’s got plenty of speed and should be prominent from the first jump; #1 CHOWDA: Got pretty good earlier this year when winning three of four at Aqueduct. He hasn’t been seen since, but he’s worked steadily ahead of his return to the races and could pick up a check if he’s ready to run.

R2

Herwaze (MTO)
Hurricane Breeze
Princess Fawzia

#5 HURRICANE BREEZE: Rallied into a slow pace last time out against several of these, but was still beaten less than two lengths. It certainly seems like there’s more speed signed on here, and if you solely consider her two-turn efforts, her form looks significantly better; #4 PRINCESS FAWZIA: Has come out on the wrong end of two photo finishes since coming off the bench earlier this year. She probably makes the lead; the two-part question is, how hard will she have to work to get there, and how much will she have left late; #7 COME STORMING: Hit the front late last time out but finished third beaten a half-length. She’s gotten better for Tom Bush since coming off the layoff in April, and continued improvement could put her right there.

R3

Principal Dancer
Bank On This
Wardenofthenorth

#6 PRINCIPAL DANCER: Stepped forward when third against similar here last month in his second start off a layoff. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he’s been riding as well as any jockey in the country of late; #7 BANK ON THIS: Merits a long look at a price in what seems like a wide-open event. He hasn’t run since December, but his recent works at Finger Lakes are solid and he catches a suspect field in his first start for a tag; #1 WARDENOFTHENORTH: Improved to earn his diploma at second asking last time out at Belmont. That was his first start off the claim by Linda Rice, and while the rail draw doesn’t seem ideal, it’s not as if he’s completely devoid of tactical speed.

R4

Stage Left
Cobble Hill
Majestic West

#2 STAGE LEFT: Gets a reluctant top pick in a starter allowance where I could make cases for most of the field. He won two back and was fourth in a tough allowance heat earlier this month. Take out the two-turn clunker four back at Churchill, and his recent record looks far better; #1 COBBLE HILL: Was second in his first start for Rudy Rodriguez last time out. That came against a suspect group of claimers, but he showed a new dimension that day racing very close to the pace. He may very well be reaching his peak; #6 MAJESTIC WEST: May have needed his 2020 debut and still didn’t run badly when third at Churchill. That was his first start against winners, and he was a good second at this route in his debut a season ago.

R5

Herald Angel
Party At Page’s
She’s a Majestic

#11 HERALD ANGEL: Will merit much respect if she draws in off the AE list. She debuted with a solid second-place finish at this route a few weeks ago, and this barn’s runners usually improve at second asking; #2 PARTY AT PAGE’S: Did everything but win in her debut early in the meet, when she lost a head-bob and topped the third-place finisher by more than eight lengths. Turf is a question mark, but her talent is not; #7 SHE’S A MAJESTIC: Debuts for Steve Asmussen, who has already unveiled several promising 2-year-olds this summer. She’s bred up and down for turf, and she’s got several solid gate drills to her credit ahead of her debut.

R6

Black Magic Woman
Back Channel
Barista Vixen

#3 BLACK MAGIC WOMAN: Debuted with much fanfare and several Santana references from yours truly and didn’t disgrace herself in defeat. She got caught after setting a fast pace going seven furlongs, and it wouldn’t take a soul sacrifice for her to improve at second asking (sorry, I had to get at least one); #6 BACK CHANNEL: Has run well in her first two career starts downstate and comes into this event off of a bullet workout on August 17th. She sold for plenty of money two years ago, and it wouldn’t take a huge step forward for her to recoup some of it here; #7 BARISTA VIXEN: Made up a lot of ground in her debut late last year and hasn’t been seen since. She’s been working well of late for Bill Mott, though, and with all the speed to her inside, she could be the beneficiary of what looks like a closer-friendly race shape.

R7

Big Engine (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Sayyaaf

#5 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Is a true “horse for course,” as he’s won five of seven starts going short on turf at Saratoga. Kendrick Carmouche should fit this front-runner like a glove, and I think he has the speed to wire this classy group; #2 SAYYAAF: Was inexplicably rated off the pace earlier in the meet and disappointed as an even-money favorite. A return to his 2019 form would make him tough, but after a series of defeats as a short-priced favorite, it’s fair to wonder if his best days are behind him; #3 MATTA: Comes north from Laurel Park and hasn’t finished worse than second in three turf starts to this point. It’s interesting that Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options, and he could be sitting in a perfect spot just off the pace.

R8

Irish Front
Blindwillie McTell
Famished

#2 IRISH FRONT: Came off the bench running with an easy score against maidens last time out. This is his first start against winners, and he does face older company, but the Todd Pletcher trainee has all the makings of an exciting prospect; #4 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL: Came off the bench with a solid third-place finish here earlier in the meet. That day’s winner, Yaupon, is a serious racehorse, and improvement is logical second off the layoff; #7 FAMISHED: Hasn’t won in nearly a year, but that victory came at this route and he was an OK third against similar last time out. This trip seems to suit him, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

R9

Miss Peppina (MTO)
Sweet Melania
Witez

#1 SWEET MELANIA: Stole the Grade 3 Wonder Again on the lead in her 3-year-old debut, and it certainly seems like the early lead is ripe for the taking here in the Grade 3 Lake Placid. She’s yet to run a bad race on the lawn, and she may well be on the improve for Pletcher, which is a scary thought; #3 WITEZ: Won her local debut last time out and has back races that would make her competitive here. Ian Wilkes trainees tend to get better as they get older, and her form looks more attractive to the eye if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Regret two back; #2 MICHELINE: Won a stakes race two back at Gulfstream before being caught wide in the Regret last time out. She may need more pace than she’s likely to get in this spot, but she’s certainly talented enough to win this on her best day.

R10

Madam Deputy (MTO)
Little Red Button
Cainudothetwist

#1 LITTLE RED BUTTON: Ran well when third in her first start going two turns last time out. She got caught a bit wide that day and gets a friendlier inside draw in this spot, which should help her in what seems like a wide-open finale; #8 CAINUDOTHETWIST: Debuted with a solid second downstate and has every right to step forward with a start under her belt. I’m not sold on the quality of the field she faced in her unveiling, but that race came back pretty solid on figures; #6 BEYOND BROWN: Sure looks like the main speed in her return to the turf. She was a distant second in a race rained off the grass earlier this month, and this will be her first start for a tag on the lawn if it stays there.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $648.50

Today’s bankroll blurb is a public service announcement.

A friend of mine is a sports broadcaster at a radio station in central New York. He got an email from someone pitching stations on the topic of cleaning products. However, this wasn’t the worst part of the message. No, that came later, when the emailer brought up that the guest in question could discuss cleaning tips for the holidays, which are apparently, ahem, “coming up soon.”

Hanukkah begins December 10th. Christmas is December 25th. Kwanzaa kicks off December 26th. Hyping up the holidays before Halloween should be frowned upon. Hyping up the holidays before Labor Day should be prosecuted by The Hague as a crime against humanity.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was right to play against Munnings Muse in the first leg of the Pick Five, but I didn’t like the eventual winner at all. Scratches reduced the loss to $15.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at a Pick Five and focus on the late sequence, which starts in the fifth. My 50-cent ticket reads as follows: 1,2,8 with 1,4,6,9 with 3,7,8 with 2,6 with 3. Hopefully, I can extract some value out of #3 ROBIN SPARKLES and build sand castles in the sand in celebration following the day’s events.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Robin Sparkles, Race 9
Longshot: Preamble, Race 5

R1

Imperio D
Majestic View
Lady’s Boy

#6 IMPERIO D: Enters what seems like a “now or never” spot. He’s been competitive at this level twice this summer, and it certainly looks like he’ll be the controlling speed in the opener. If he’s ever going to break through on this circuit, this looks like the spot; #1 MAJESTIC VIEW: Drops way down in class after disappointing at 5/2 odds last month. John Kimmel has good numbers with runners adding blinkers, and the recent work looks pretty good; #7 LADY’S BOY: Draws a cushy outside post in his debut and might not have to be much to pick up a check here. The August 9th work on the training track looks pretty flashy, and that could mean this gelding has some potential.

R2

Prairie Wings
Forty Zip
All Others Follow

#2 PRAIRIE WINGS: Sat a perfect trip in her turf debut but got ran down by a better horse going a marathon distance. I can’t hold that against her too much, and she gets another strong setup here. It certainly doesn’t seem like there’s any other speed in the race, which has to be music to Luis Saez’s ears; #1 FORTY ZIP: Has run reasonably well in two starts and goes second off the bench for Shug McGaughey. She sat a bit closer last time out at Keeneland and may be forwardly-placed by default given the likely race shape; #6 ALL OTHERS FOLLOW: Has improved in all three starts and most recently ran a solid second at Monmouth. The 80 Beyer Speed Figure she earned that day is the highest such number in this field, but form doesn’t always travel north up the Jersey Turnpike.

R3

Value Proposition
Sentry
Seismic Wave

#4 VALUE PROPOSITION: Was a bit one-pace when third in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont. With his running style, I think he’ll much prefer this two-turn route of ground, and he may sit close to what figures to be a slow early pace; #5 SENTRY: Has two wins and two seconds in his last four starts. He most recently ran a hard-luck second off the layoff earlier in the meet, and if a faster-than-expected pace materializes, he may be the one to hold off late; #1 SEISMIC WAVE: Has back form that shows he can win this race, but the 0-for-3 local mark is a concern. He may prefer tracks with firmer turf courses like Belmont or Gulfstream, and he’s another that could be compromised by the race shape.

R4

Judicial Restraint
Flying P entry
Height

#2 JUDICIAL RESTRAINT: Gets my top pick despite coming in from Monmouth for Chad Brown, which is often a red flag. However, I genuinely feel like I’ve got nowhere else to go. He adds blinkers after running second against similar at Belmont; FLYING P ENTRY: #1 CORKMAN drops back in for a tag after losing all chance at the break against special weight foes at Monmouth. He’s run reasonably well going two turns in the past and, most importantly, doesn’t exit a race I find suspect, unlike many others; #4 HEIGHT: Ran second in that aforementioned event and may well be favored here. However, he had every chance to go by a tired leader in the stretch and couldn’t get the job done. Perhaps that race is better than I think it was, but I can’t endorse him at his likely price.

R5

Dubb entry
Preamble
Morley entry

DUBB ENTRY: I’ll give #1 DOWSE’S BEACH one more shot. He was a close-up second last time out, which was his seventh top-two finish in 11 local starts. Perhaps he’s not as good as he was, but this doesn’t seem like the toughest race for the level; #8 PREAMBLE: Goes short on turf for the first time, and he’s bred to like the grass. His 326 turf Tomlinson rating is very solid, and that may be what he needs to recapture his 2018 and early-2019 form; MORLEY ENTRY: #2 DUNCASTLE was fourth in the race my top pick exits and may be the main speed in this event. He looks like the speed of the speed, and he’ll likely be the one they have to catch turning for home.

R6

Leaveuwithasmile (MTO)
Maker entry
Glass Ceiling

MAKER ENTRY: #1 MORE MANGO stole her most recent race on the front end. She got a brilliant ride that day from Jose Ortiz, who sees fit to ride back in a race where the other presumed speed horses have very little in the way of turf form; #4 GLASS CEILING: Tries turf for the first time, but her connections attempted to get her a race on the lawn this past May. Between that, her back class, and her grass-friendly pedigree, she should have every shot to run well here; #9 BELLA ROSE: Won her lone start to date going two turns on turf and didn’t disgrace herself when third against similar downstate. The outside post isn’t ideal, but she’s certainly got the potential to step forward at a bit of a price.

R7

Peaceful
Victory Kingdom
Getmotherarose

#7 PEACEFUL: Has run her best races at this route and wired an allowance field earlier in the meet. For a stakes race going short on the lawn, this race doesn’t seem to have much early zip, and I think she could steal this at a square price; #8 VICTORY KINGDOM: Comes in from Australia and gets Lasix for the first time, which could make her very dangerous. She’s run fairly well against stakes competition in her homeland, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride; #3 GETMOTHERAROSE: Had a terrible trip in the Caress Stakes earlier this month and should move forward with smoother sailing here. It’s possible her best days are behind her, but it wasn’t too long ago that she had five wins in an eight-start span (including the Grade 3 Honey Fox).

R8

Texas Swing
Danny California
Creative Style

#2 TEXAS SWING: Was promising enough to earn a trip to the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, where he ran third behind the Kentucky Derby-bound King Guillermo. He’s been off nearly six months, but anything close to his early-2020 form would make him tough to beat; #6 DANNY CALIFORNIA: Has proven he’s a far better two-turn horse, and did so once again with a runaway score against state-breds last month. He has three wins and a second in four two-turn starts over the past 12 months, and this barn has done very well this season; #5 CREATIVE STYLE: Was claimed by a strong barn last time out and has already hit the board twice at this meet. The question is, does he want to go two turns, or is he better as a one-turn miler?

R9

Robin Sparkles
Secure Connection
Mo Me Mo My

#3 ROBIN SPARKLES: Rocked her backers’ bodies until Canada Day with an impressive win over state-bred maiden claimers two weeks ago. This is a big step up, but anything close to her last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 90 will likely earn her another trip to the mall; #6 SECURE CONNECTION: Looks a lot better if you solely consider her efforts going shorter than a mile on grass. She went from last to first in beating claimers earlier in the meet and would be the beneficiary of any early action up front; #4 MO ME MO MY: Was a beaten favorite last time out, but was rated behind a pretty slow early pace for the distance. Irad Ortiz, Jr., signs on, and perhaps she’ll have a bit more racing luck in this spot than she did earlier this month.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $663.50

Okay, folks, this one stings. Like plenty of other handicappers, I played the Empire Six Sunday afternoon. I’m not a big Pick Six player, but I cobbled together a very cheap ticket that I was surprisingly confident in.

It wasn’t the $30 winner of the second leg that knocked me out, nor the $11 winner of the fourth leg. I was alive into the Diana and talked myself out of using Rushing Fall. When she won, I cursed under my breath, and those curses got louder when Allied Invasion, my top pick in the finale, rallied to win that race.

It wouldn’t have been a life-changing score, but I could think of several ways to spend the nearly-$1,100 payoff. Then again, that’s why they have dark days, to allow for regrouping. We’ll see if two days off was enough.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I was also alive in the Grand Slam and the late double. I singled Sistercharlie in both spots, however, and dropped $28.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early Pick Five, where my 50-second ticket will look to beat a few favorites. With a steeplechase race kicking things off, that Pick Five sequence starts in the second race, and my ticket goes as follows: 2,6 with ALL with 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 3.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Assume, Race 6
Longshot: Bella Domenica, Race 2

R1

Sheppard entry
Prayer Hope
Brianbakescookies

SHEPPARD ENTRY: Both runners from this barn appear formidable. #1 A SILENT PLAYER won his debut at Colonial Downs earlier this month, while #1A FRENCH LIGHT comes back on fairly short rest after earning the diploma just two weeks ago; #2 PRAYER HOPE: Was fourth at this level earlier in the meet, but goes third off a long layoff here and may be sitting on an improved effort. This will also be just his third start over fences; #6 BRIANBAKESCOOKIES: Ran a clunker earlier in the meet but merits some respect off of his efforts prior to that. A repeat of his two-back run, when he was second against similar in his 2020 debut, would likely get him a big piece of this.

R2

Impazible Donna
Bella Domenica
Munnings Muse

#6 IMPAZIBLE DONNA: Ran very well in her lone start to date when second here last summer. That effort saw her come flying from well off of a slow pace, and she’s turned in several solid drills ahead of her return to the races; #2 BELLA DOMENICA: Was a good second against similar earlier this month and may very well inherit the early lead by default in what looks like a paceless race. If that scenario plays out, she could get brave up top at a nice price; #1 MUNNINGS MUSE: Ran well when second in her debut, but has been off since June of 2019. She chased a nice horse that day, but this barn’s horses tend to need a race or two after long stints on the sideline.

R3

Whatdoesasharksay
Coilean Bawn
Cap de Creus

#1 WHATDOESASHARKSAY: Gets my top pick in a puzzling turf marathon based on the likely race shape. There simply isn’t much other early speed in this event, and aggressive gate rider Luis Saez should be able to dictate terms from the first jump; #3 COILEAN BAWN: Broke her maiden two starts back before catching a paceless race at this route last month. She can certainly improve, however, as she’s shown a little tactical speed in the past; #4 CAP DE CREUS: Was well-beaten as an even-money favorite last time out and may very well go favored again here, largely due to her connections. Her two-back effort wasn’t bad, but she hasn’t won in over a year and strikes me as an underlay at or near her morning line price.

R4

Katies Courage
Tiz Splendid News
Who Knows What

#4 KATIES COURAGE: Put forth a head-turning gate work on August 14th that suggests she’s got some talent. She’s a half-sister to two winners, and her dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed runner Soft Whisper (who herself has thrown two winners from as many foals to race); #3 TIZ SPLENDID NEWS: Fetched $100,000 at auction in November of 2018, so it’s a bit curious to see her in for a $50,000 tag in her debut. However, this barn can get pretty aggressive, and she does boast a bullet drill back on August 11th at Keeneland; #8 WHO KNOWS WHAT: Was third against state-breds in her debut at Colonial Downs and draws a cushy outside post here. Her experience is certainly an asset, and she may not have to improve much from that effort to be competitive here.

R5

Kitten’s Romance
Dipping In
Checksandbalances

#9 KITTEN’S ROMANCE: Draws a far outside post for the third time in as many career starts, but certainly seems like the main speed in a largely-paceless race. She lost by a nose at this level and route last time out and should have every chance to get the job done given the likely race shape; #4 DIPPING IN: Has certainly had plenty of chances, but she seemed to wake up a bit when a hard-charging third at this level going shorter. Most of her turf routes have come against maiden special weight foes, so I can’t fault anyone giving her one more shot (especially at a bit of a price); #3 CHECKSANDBALANCES: Had every chance as the favorite last time out and couldn’t get by the top two (including my second choice). She did improve a bit on numbers, but I can’t endorse her on top at her likely short price.

R6

Assume
Charlotte Webley
Classy Sadie

#3 ASSUME: Responded emphatically to a drop in class with a runaway score here last month. She tries winners for the first time off the claim, but Mike Maker’s barn has been going well this meet and this certainly doesn’t look like an imposing bunch for the level; #5 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY: Did get home at 2/5 last time out despite racing greenly in the lane. She’s got plenty of early speed, and she’s a threat to wire this group if she’s got her last-out issues under control; #7 CLASSY SADIE: Merits a look on a drop in class at a price. She didn’t do much running last time out, but that was her first try since December and she spent most of last year racing against stakes foes. Logical improvement second off the bench could absolutely get her a piece of this.

R7

Turned Aside
Maven
Buy Land and See

#10 TURNED ASIDE: Comes into this event after winning the Grade 3 Quick Call against several of these rivals a few weeks ago. He has speed, but is also ratable enough to sit off the early pace, which figures to be very contentious; #8 MAVEN: Came back running last month at Keeneland, when he led every step of the way in his first start since last summer. He won a Group 3 in Europe as a 2-year-old and certainly looks like a main early pace factor; #1 BUY LAND AND SEE: Cruised home in a prep for this down at Parx, which came against an overmatched field of state-breds. He does cut back in distance, but he ran third in his debut at this route against a tough field (runner-up Art Collector will likely be the second choice in the Kentucky Derby).

R8

Blowout
Catch a Bid
Atomic Blonde

#4 BLOWOUT: Makes her 2020 debut after being on the sidelines since October. She won a pair of stakes races last year, placed in five others, and certainly looks like the one they’ll all be chasing turning for home; #5 CATCH A BID: Makes up the other half of a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. Her win two-back was very good, and she won a restricted stakes race here last summer beneath today’s pilot; #1 ATOMIC BLONDE: Hasn’t been seen since February, but won a stakes race two back at Gulfstream over some classy horses. Jorge Abreu now trains this filly, and if she’s ready to run, she could fire a big shot at a nice price.

R9

Back Channel (MTO)
Let Them Eat Cake
Thrill

#8 LET THEM EAT CAKE: Rallied late to be second in her local debut and could easily take a step forward second off a brief freshening. There appears to be a lot of early speed here, and that could set things up for this one-run closer; #2 THRILL: Was one-paced when third on dirt last month but comes back to what looks like her preferred surface. She’s bred up and down for the grass, and she may have matured enough in her first two starts to get the money at third asking; #10 AMERICAN GODDESS: Cuts back in distance after tiring to fourth going seven furlongs at Belmont. For the fourth straight outing, the draw was unkind to her, but perhaps this is the route she wants, and she’s worth a look in a complicated finale.