BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $726.50

My full-time job is with Life Chiropractic College West in the Bay Area, and we’re coming up on the busiest weekend of the year. Our annual conference, the WAVE, kicks off Friday afternoon, and we’re going online for the first time. As an aside, if any members of the WAVE team happen to be reading this, you’re all awesome and have moved mountains these past few months!

What does this mean for this section? Well, it means I may or may not have time to send fully-updated recaps of the prior day’s action, and the same applies to the total at the top of this section. I refuse to be the guy who holds up print production of The Pink Sheet for any reason, and that scenario is in play here. In the event this happens, I’ll have stuff up on AndrewChampagne.com as quickly as I can once the conference ends for the day, and I’ll put that information on Twitter (@AndrewChampagne) as well.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This was brutal. I had two horses in a three-horse photo in the eighth race, but the one I didn’t have was the winner (and a chalk I was trying to beat to boot). After scratches, I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: The fifth race is fascinating, and I can’t wait to bet #9 MY MAN FLINTSTONE, who hits me as the lone speed in that event. I’ll put $10 to win and place on him, and I’ll also single him in a cold $5 double ending with #6 PRINCESA CAROLINE in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Golden Pal, Race 3
Longshot: My Man Flintstone, Race 5

R1

Silver Token
Striking Causeway
Advanced Strategy

#7 SILVER TOKEN: Just missed last time and has been running well since going to the Horacio DePaz barn. While the outfit is just 1-for-10 at the meet as of this writing, it’s sent out six runners-up, so the horses are certainly prepared; #4 STRIKING CAUSEWAY: Ran too badly to be true last time out at Belmont and is another going out for a barn light on numbers, but heavy on in-the-money finishes. A repeat of his two-back effort, when he was third beaten a neck against similar, would put him right there; #6 ADVANCED STRATEGY: Was fourth beaten a length in his return to the races earlier this summer. Improvement could come at second asking, but I think there’s a chance he wants more distance, and at his likely short price, I can’t endorse him on top.

R2

The Angry Man
Ashiham
Obsessed

#5 THE ANGRY MAN: Has run second on three straight occasions and comes back to dirt for this event. His last two starts have shown he can get two turns (albeit on turf), and his last dirt effort saw him chase a very promising horse named Happy Saver; #2 ASHIHAM: Was a one-paced third last time out at this route and runs like a horse who wants as much distance as he can get. He was even-money last time out, but did run into a decent winner in First Line, who was briefly pointed to the Grade 1 Travers; #3 OBSESSED: Stretches out to two turns second off a long layoff for Todd Pletcher. There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, he may have needed the last-out effort, and if you want a price on Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., you may get one here.

R3

Golden Pal
Fauci
Sky’s Not Falling

#6 GOLDEN PAL: Did everything but win at Royal Ascot in June when a hard-luck second in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. He’s bred to be very sharp, being by Uncle Mo and out of freakish turf sprinter Lady Shipman, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #5 FAUCI: Took to the turf last time out at Keeneland when breaking his maiden over yielding going. He’s shown some early zip in both of his prior starts and should be prominent from the first jump; #4 SKY’S NOT FALLING: Tries the lawn after finishing third in a minor stakes race at Colonial Downs last month. He comes in after a bullet work on a synthetic surface, and there is some turf in his pedigree.

R4

Citizen K
Eagle Orb
Sonic Speed

#8 CITIZEN K: Is a reluctant top pick for me in a race with seven first-time starters, most going out for barns whose debuting runners aren’t fully-cranked. This one, however, is a half to La Fuerza, who won multiple stakes races as a 2-year-old, and the recent works are promising; #4 EAGLE ORB: Sold for $95,000 at auction last year and exits a strong half-mile drill earlier this month. He’s a half-brother to five winners, but I think he may be at his best going a bit longer; #2 SONIC SPEED: Is by strong juvenile sire Maclean’s Music and has a few solid gate works for trainer John Kimmel. Kimmel’s first-out numbers aren’t great, but this isn’t the strongest spot and I wouldn’t be surprised if he grabbed a piece of it.

R5

My Man Flintstone
Unprecedented
More Like It

#9 MY MAN FLINTSTONE: Certainly looks like the main speed here as he comes back to the turf. He was eased in his lone prior turf start, but he’s run very well on synthetic surfaces and is bred to enjoy the lawn; #5 UNPRECEDENTED: Was a close-up fourth against similar last time out and earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. He’s got enough speed to be fairly close early on beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #6 MORE LIKE IT: Broke through by getting his nose down last time out and tries winners for the first time. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back, and this barn has hit at a 21% clip at the meet. Runner-up Silver Token runs in the opener, and if that one does well, it could be a good sign.

R6

Make Or Break (MTO)
Princesa Caroline
Passion Factor

#6 PRINCESA CAROLINE: Returns off the bench for her 3-year-old debut. She was third as an odds-on favorite in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar in November, and the two-back work indicates she’s sitting on a big effort in her 2020 bow; #9 PASSION FACTOR: Found the Grade 2 Appalachian a bit too tough and should appreciate the drop into the allowance ranks. She may also be a bit sharper in her second start off the bench; #1 LASHARA: Is yet another coming out of a stakes race, as she faded to seventh in the Grade 2 Lake Placid. Both of her races before that were strong, and she may be the one the front-runners have to worry about in the lane.

R7

Jump for Joy
Flat Awesome Jenny
Lady by Choice

#3 JUMP FOR JOY: Does her best running over this surface and beat similar foes last time out earlier in the meet. She’s got tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which should give Jose Ortiz plenty of options; #5 FLAT AWESOME JENNY: Comes back to the right level after her connections took a shot in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher at Monmouth. Her two-back win at Delaware was good, and she’s run plenty of strong races going one turn in the recent past; #2 LADY BY CHOICE: Will make her third start of the meet here and will have every chance to come rolling late at a price. She didn’t have the best of trips last time out and could step forward with a cleaner journey.

R8

Bears Mafia (MTO)
Freewheeler
Veterans Beach

#4 FREEWHEELER: Makes his return to the races and looms large against allowance company. He chased the eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner when second in the Grade 3 Futurity, and it also helps that he won at this route in his debut; #1 VETERANS BEACH: Makes his first start in a year but has prior races that would make him competitive. He was second in his last outing following a long break back in May of 2019, and his lone win came here two summers ago; #9 CRACK SHOT: Certainly seems like the one to catch and will have to go early to clear the field from his outside post. He’ll almost certainly be leading into the stretch; the question is, will he have the stamina necessary to hold on?

R9

Voice of Spring (MTO)
Kept Waiting
Gaelic Gold

#7 KEPT WAITING: Did all the dirty work last time out and was beaten a neck by a deep closer, all during a time when front-runners were not winning on turf. This race seems light on early zip, and recent races have shown speed can hold on the grass; #6 GAELIC GOLD: Will likely be favored second off the bench for Christophe Clement, and the reasoning for that makes sense. She rallied to be third behind my top selection last time out, and Rosario sees fit to ride back; #8 KILKEA: Was beaten less than a length at Belmont back in June and has since moved to the Mark Hennig barn. This is her first time going two turns on the lawn, and her pedigree says that’s what she’ll want to do.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $746.50

As those who follow me already know, I lost my grandmother to COVID-19 earlier this year. It was brutal and made worse by the fact I couldn’t travel east from California to attend anything resembling a conventional funeral.

When she passed away, I made the decision to name a horse in her honor on Off And Pacing, a harness racing game you can play on your phone (my stable name is 128 Racing, named for my winning total back in 2017 when I won the all-media handicapping title). This past Tuesday, the mare I named Nana Carolyn won one of the richest races the game offers.

When I saw the video of this race, I teared up. Judge me for it if you want to, but that was an out-of-body experience I’ve never had before and will likely never have again. As an aside/cheap plug, if you play the game, make sure you send plenty of mares each season to flagship sire King Elliot, a three-time trophy winner named after my cat (and Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello’s favorite horse).

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Tobys Heart did indeed win the Bolton Landing, but my underneath horses ran third and fourth. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late double beginning in the eighth, as #7 LEAD GUITAR hits me as a vulnerable favorite. I’m playing $5 doubles starting with #2 FETCHING and #5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL and ending with #1 DARK MONEY, #2 WE SHOULD TALK, and #7 JUST RIGHT in the nightcap.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Leaveuwithasmile, Race 5
Longshot: No More Miracles, Race 6

R1

Moscato
Optimus Prime
Pravalaguna

#5 MOSCATO: Won the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick earlier in the meet and has emerged as one of the top steeplechasers in the country. He’ll look to move to 3-for-3 on the year in this spot, and he should be rolling late; #6 OPTIMUS PRIME: Chased Moscato home in the Smithwick, which doubled as his first run in a year. He has every reason to step forward here, and he won this race at this route two years ago; #2 PRAVALAGUNA: Was eased in the Smithwick but was sent off at single-digit odds that day. Her two-back romp at Fair Hill was quite good, and I think she has every chance to grab a piece of it here at a big price.

R2

Thankful
Simply Sweet
Heavenly Sis

#6 THANKFUL: Stepped forward a bit when second in her dirt debut last time out. She comes in off of a recent bullet workout and is bred to want every bit of this two-turn route of ground; #1 SIMPLY SWEET: Was a distant fourth in her unveiling downstate but should improve at second asking for trainer Bill Mott. She’s another with a solid local work tab, and two turns may be up her street, too; #4 HEAVENLY SIS: Has run second three times since coming off the bench a few months ago. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and she does possess the highest Beyer Speed Figure in this entire field.

R3

Awesome Alana
Out of Trouble
Goodbye Brockley

#5 AWESOME ALANA: Goes back to the turf in her first start for Linda Rice. She’s been off since March but seems to have found a very soft landing spot for this level, and her lone prior start on the grass was a solid third against a better group at this route a season ago; #1 OUT OF TROUBLE: Has won just once since the start of last year but takes a significant drop in class. It’s possible she’s past her peak, but anything close to her 2019 form would give her a big shot; #6 GOODBYE BROCKLEY: Has some back races that would make her competitive here, although you have to dig a bit to find them. She may have needed her last-out effort off a brief freshening, and Luis Saez sees fit to ride.

R4

Threepointninenine
Disciplinarian
Boom Boom Kaboom

#8 THREEPOINTNINENINE: Is one of many exiting a common race on July 30, which came at this level and route. He was fifth that day, but I think he’ll get a better setup here. He hits me as the lone early speed, and Saez rides back second off the bench for Tom Morley; #7 DISCIPLINARIAN: Has run third against similar goes in both starts since a brief layoff. He’s the leading finisher from the July 30 event running here, and the David Donk barn caught fire over the weekend; #6 BOOM BOOM KABOOM: Was favored in that common race and may have bounced a bit off of a decent effort two back against special weight foes. Maybe he’s better at Belmont, but a return to the two-back form isn’t inconceivable for an outfit due to get rolling at this stand.

R5

Leaveuwithasmile
Sirenic
Customerexperience

#6 LEAVEUWITHASMILE: Made her local debut a winning one when wiring similar company during the first week of the meet. She was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, whose win percentage with new acquisitions is an insane 50% (and no, that’s not a misprint); #5 SIRENIC: Has the “stranger danger” factor in her favor as she ships in following a win over older foes at Ellis Park. She’s got some versatility and has been working well at Churchill Downs ahead of this trip; #1 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE: Was probably left with too much to do last time when third behind my top pick after sitting well off the pace. Rudy Rodriguez claimed her after the last-out performance, and she would stand to benefit from some action up front early on.

R6

Red Mule
Jack of Clubs
No More Miracles

#3 RED MULE: Makes his second start off the bench and comes back to his preferred surface after being protected last time out at Laurel. He ran well in New York last year before breaking his maiden at Gulfstream, and I like that he’s seemed to learn how to rate in his last several outings; #8 JACK OF CLUBS: Was protected late last time out after fading badly in his first start against winners. This is a softer spot, to be sure, and the class relief comes in his first start for the Mike Miceli barn, which hits at a high rate with both new acquisitions and turf sprinters; #7 NO MORE MIRACLES: Runs second off the layoff for David Donk and comes back to the grass. He’ll be a price after fading for lower tags on dirt a few times, but his turf races from last year match up pretty well with this bunch.

R7

Stan the Man
T Loves a Fight
My Boy Tate

#2 STAN THE MAN: Drops in after running a strong second in the Grade 2 True North at Belmont behind Firenze Fire. He’s probably better going a bit longer than this six-furlong distance, but he sure seems like the main speed and should appreciate the class relief in the ungraded Tale of the Cat; #1 T LOVES A FIGHT: Hasn’t won since October but loves Saratoga and was recently second in the John Morrissey. I’m not crazy about the rail draw, but this barn has been sending out well-meant horses all summer; #4 MY BOY TATE: Was third in the Morrissey and may need a wet track for his best form to come out. However, he’s got four top-two finishes in five starts at this distance and was just a half-length behind my second selection last time out.

R8

Speightstown Gal
Fetching
Lead Guitar

#5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL: Found herself on the lead last time out, and that may not be her desired trip. Her win two back at Belmont was very good, and I think she’ll sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Javier Castellano here; #2 FETCHING: Ran into a few strong horses in the Mount Vernon last time out after a nice win two back. This barn has been ice-cold at the meet, but this filly has won over this turf course before and seems well-meant on the cutback; #7 LEAD GUITAR: Comes back to New York for an astute barn and may be favored. However, I’m going to try to beat her. She seems considerably slower this year than she was as a 3-year-old, and I can’t endorse her at or near her 6/5 morning line price.

R9

Dark Money
We Should Talk
Just Right

#1 DARK MONEY: Was inexplicably rated off the pace last time out, and that’s not this horse’s game. He wants to be on or near the lead, and given the rider switch, the rail draw, and a recent bullet work, I think his desired trip is likely in the Thursday finale; #2 WE SHOULD TALK: Has won three in a row and has changed hands via the claim box after each victory. This is a bit of a step up, but it’s tough to argue he doesn’t deserve a shot against these and Englehart did step him up effectively two back at Aqueduct; #7 JUST RIGHT: Was beaten a half-length in his first start since August last time out. I think he needed that race off the long break, so the last-out hang in the stretch doesn’t bother me much. A step forward would put him right there.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $776.50

There’s no use beating around the bush, so I’ll come out and say it: Fields are short the next few programs at Saratoga. It’s easy to play the blame game, but there are a few things to keep in mind.

Most importantly, 2-year-olds are no longer allowed to run with Lasix in New York. I’ll leave the discussion about the effects of Lasix to the professionals, but it’s apparent that this a real deterrent for some barns, ones that have opted to run their juveniles in jurisdictions that allow them to receive the medication. The other factor to keep in mind, of course, is the COVID-19 pandemic. Many trainers had to stop on horses for weeks at a time, and it’s tough to get them ready to run after such a long time off the track.

It’s certainly unfortunate. Races at Saratoga drawing fields of five or six is a “should not occur” in most years. Having said that, I feel fortunate we have a Saratoga meet at all. NYRA’s doing the best it can in a tough situation, and while I’ve been quick to take them to task on some things, doing so here doesn’t seem smart.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: While my Pick Five got blasted to smithereens in the first leg, I had some hope with nice double will-pays after Antoinette’s gutty score in the Saratoga Oaks. Unfortunately, those failed to come to fruition. I dropped $28 after scratches.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to squeeze some value out of likely favorite #6 TOBYS HEART in the eighth race (the featured Bolton Landing Stakes). I’ll play her on top in $10 exactas and $5 trifectas that use medium-range prices #8 AMANZI YIMPILO and #9 MISCHIEVOUS DREAM in the underneath spots.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Snap Decision, Race 1
Longshot: Little Red Button, Race 9

R1

Snap Decision
Duc de Meran
Fast Car

#1 SNAP DECISION: Came flying late to record his sixth straight win earlier in the meet. He’ll once again carry top weight (a 165-pound impost), but he’s beaten several of these foes in the past and he may be even better with the added distance; #7 DUC DE MERAN: Makes his U.S. debut after spending the early part of his career in France. He finished third in a stakes race over fences back in February, and he could be live going to firmer turf and adding Lasix; #2 FAST CAR: Rolled home against much weaker company last month and gets a class test here. Mitchell sees fit to ride back, and the lightly-raced gelding could still be on the improve.

R2

Siesta Kew
Ruby Stiletto
Jill’s a Hot Mess

#4 SIESTA KEW: Makes her debut for Mike Maker, whose barn has been firing on all cylinders over the past few weeks. She has several very strong gate works on her tab, and if that form carries over to the afternoon, she could be a handful; #3 RUBY STILETTO: Sold for $65,000 last October and is working well for Rudy Rodriguez. This barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, but she’s by strong first-out sire Maclean’s Music and has plenty of bottom-side pedigree, too; #5 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Is the only horse in this field to have run before, and she made a middle move earlier this meet before flattening out. Aggressive gate rider Kendrick Carmouche hops aboard, and a repeat of her two-back effort could put her right there.

R3

Brown entry
Stunning Princess
Puma Punku

BROWN ENTRY: #1 INGRASSIA and #1A REINA DEL SOL are both regally-bred, and they both have big-time chances in a race light on numbers but heavy on potential. I’ll give a slight nod to the former simply because that’s where Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands; #5 STUNNING PRINCESS: Ran well to be second in her debut last month, especially since that was during a time where early speed was not holding on the turf course. She could conceivably move forward at second asking while sitting a similar trip; #4 PUMA PUNKU: Is by Kitten’s Joy and out of a mare named Gypsy’s Warning, who won top-tier races in both America and her native South Africa. She’s bred up and down to be very good, and my one hesitation is that she may need a start under her belt before she’s ready to win.

R4

Majid
Curlin Grey
Hoffenheim

#1 MAJID: Gets my top selection in a race where I wish I didn’t have to make one. He’s earned that simply because of the likely race shape. I think he’s the only horse that will want to go early, and he did get pretty good a year ago when reeling off four straight wins; #6 CURLIN GREY: Hasn’t won in a while but was a good second behind a heavy favorite at this level and route a few weeks ago. He’s run into some sharp horses for the level this year, including Frost Or Frippery, and this may be the softest spot he’s seen since January; #2 HOFFENHEIM: Makes sense given the drop in class but is simply impossible for me to endorse on top. He hasn’t won in more than two years, flopped at 2-1 in his last start, and will likely be a very short price. Perhaps he wins, but I just can’t bet him.

R5

Financial System
Kantarmaci entry
Golden Decision

#8 FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Has won two in a row and takes a curious drop in class when he seems to be in good form. These are aggressive connections that want the owner and trainer titles, though, so I’m not seeing it as a red flag; KANTARMACI ENTRY: I prefer #1A ZERO GRAVITY, who figures to come flying late in his first start for this barn. He’ll likely get plenty of pace to chase, and he ran well at this level two and three back at Churchill; #4 GOLDEN DECISION: Drops back in for a tag, cuts back in distance, and gets Joel Rosario for a high-percentage barn that doesn’t run many horses here. He’s another that does his best running late, so the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

R6

Bossy Bride (MTO)
Rivendell
Bareeqa

#1 RIVENDELL: Won like a very good horse in her unveiling downstate. She came flying in the stretch despite very modest early fractions, her pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and runners from the Bill Mott barn tend to improve with experience; #5 BAREEQA: Has run several very good races over this turf course, enough to where I’m drawing a line through the last-out effort. That pace wasn’t that fast, and there should be more early zip signed on in this spot; #7 KITTEN BY THE SEA: Came back running off the bench in her first start for Todd Pletcher when she was third beaten a neck last month. She’s got some tactical speed, which could come in handy on the inner turf, and Jose Ortiz riding back is certainly a plus.

R7

Golani Brigade
Quickflash
Big Thicket

#1 GOLANI BRIGADE: Ran well when breaking his maiden here last summer and makes his first start since then in this spot. The extensive Monmouth work tab is a concern, but he’s worked very well since coming to Saratoga and his best race would likely be too good for these; #5 QUICKFLASH: Hasn’t run a bad one in six starts, all of which have seen him finish third or better. He tries seven furlongs for the first time, but I don’t think that will be a big deal; #7 BIG THICKET: Was third against similar at this route earlier in the meet, but that was after a 12-day turnaround, which was probably too quick. He got a month between starts before this race, and I think he’ll have a fuller gas tank for this one.

R8

Tobys Heart
Amanzi Yimpilo
Mischievous Dream

#6 TOBYS HEART: Put forth a jaw-dropping performance in her debut at Churchill Downs. She missed the break, rallied forward completely on her own, and won by nearly seven lengths while under wraps late. Anything close to that likely puts her in the winner’s circle; #8 AMANZI YIMPILO: Cruised home in her debut at Gulfstream Park and may well be the controlling speed in here. Wesley Ward can get 2-year-old turf sprinters ready to run as well as anyone, and Irad lands here when he likely had a few options; #9 MISCHIEVOUS DREAM: Rallied to top New York-breds in her unveiling at this route last month. That race didn’t come back particularly fast on figures, but she was professional and she’s bred to be a good one. Her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Presious Passion, and she could improve with experience.

R9

Hey It’s Tati (MTO)
Sandra’s Mine
Little Red Button

#3 SANDRA’S MINE: Is probably in a “now or never” spot. She’s 0-for-12 lifetime but stretches back out to two turns in her third start off the layoff. She ran well a few times going long a season ago, and those efforts came against slightly better opposition; #10 LITTLE RED BUTTON: Stretches out to two turns and ran a sneaky-good race last time out. She was pretty wide most of the way, yet still rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. Her pedigree’s not bad, and I think she can outrun her odds in a big way; #13 MEMORIES ETERNAL: Merits a look if she draws in off the AE list. Her lone two-turn effort to date came last month, when she made a big move but settled for second at Laurel Park. She’ll be back in with state-breds if she gets in, and that could help her.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $804.50

Call me crazy, but after Saturday’s Grade 1 Alabama, I’m far more excited for the Kentucky Oaks than the Kentucky Derby. Swiss Skydiver, of course, put on a show, winning by daylight while under wraps late. Up next for her is a date with Acorn and Test winner Gamine, who will be stretching back out to two turns.

This is no slight to Tiz the Law, who may be preparing for a dazzling display of his own in the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in September (still feels weird to say that). However, give me Swiss Skydiver and Gamine looking one another in the eye with the lilies on the line, and I’ll be pretty darned happy.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I was alive to an OK Pick Four will-pay with Brazen in the fifth, but he stopped badly to finish well behind Fevola. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m intrigued by the late Pick Five, and I think room exists to hit it with a budget-friendly ticket. My 50-cent play starts in the sixth and reads as follows: 2,4,6 with 6 with 2,4,5,6,11 with 3,6 with 2,4. I’ll also play $2 late doubles keying my horses in the last two legs, as I think Bill Mott saddles a pair of live horses at overlaid odds in the Saratoga Oaks.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Skye Snow, Race 4
Longshot: Antoinette, Race 9

R1

Cantata
School of Thought
Stone Town

#3 CANTATA: Hammered for nearly one million dollars at Keeneland last year and is bred to be a very strong horse. She’s worked like one for Steve Asmussen, too, and the gate work over this surface in late-July jumps off the page; #1 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT: Has worked consistently for Chad Brown and may well go off favored in this spot. She’s bred to be very good, but the pedigree screams she’ll get better as she gets older, not necessarily that she’ll want to sprint; #4 STONE TOWN: Is the lone runner in here with any experience. She was an OK second here earlier in the meet, and while she’s hurt by that day’s winner disappointing in her next start, this one could step forward.

R2

Maker entry
Bold Gem
Klaravich entry

MAKER ENTRY: Either half could win. #1 CHOCOLATE BAR drops back in for a tag and a repeat of his two-back effort at Churchill would put him right there, while #1A LOKOYA ROAD makes his first start for Maker and gets some class relief after two starts against special weight foes; #10 BOLD GEM: Has had many chances, but his turf record looks much better if you toss the two-back effort at Gulfstream. Do that, and you have a runner that has been competitive many times at this level, one that shouldn’t be ignored at a price; KLARAVICH ENTRY: #2 COMPLEX SYSTEM drops in class for this one and may be favored, but I have my doubts. These are aggressive connections, sure, but the Monmouth works are a red flag, as that’s where Chad Brown tends to keep his second-stringers.

R3

Lady C
Pick Up the Fone
Our Lady of Loreto

#5 LADY C: Was a good second against slightly better earlier in the meet despite some trouble out of the gate. Unlike many others in here, she can win while rating off the pace, and that seems like a big asset in a race full of early speed; #2 PICK UP THE FONE: Has run well in both starts for Todd Pletcher following a trainer switch earlier this year. She has tactical speed, but her last-out effort showed she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #6 OUR LADY OF LORETO: Hits me as the speed of the speed and could benefit from a cushy outside draw. I don’t think she’ll be alone on the lead, but if any horse in this field can shake loose going into the turn, it’s probably this filly.

R4

Skye Snow
Make Or Break
Tradeable

#6 SKYE SNOW: Runs for a tag for the first time and should appreciate the significant drop in class. Her two-back maiden win at Gulfstream was strong, and she should be able to come rolling late beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #1 MAKE OR BREAK: Seemed to take to turf reasonably well when third against similar foes earlier in the meet. That was her first start since March, and improvement seems logical second off the bench; #5 TRADEABLE: Was second in the race my second selection exits. She can’t be ignored if you’re playing vertical exotics, but she hasn’t won since 2018 and has had enough chances at this level to where I can’t endorse her on top.

R5

Nakamura
Pillar Mountain
He’s No Lemon

#6 NAKAMURA: Came back running when third behind Zulu Alpha in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland. He won at this route a season ago and has shown he’s not quite as pace-dependent as several of his rivals in this spot; #1 PILLAR MOUNTAIN: Stretches out in distance second off the layoff and should improve with the added distance. His two North American wins have come at this distance, and one of them came at this route last July; #4 HE’S NO LEMON: May have bounced in the Elkhorn after running a close-up third in the Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill. That’s the only clunker he’s run since December of 2018, so it’s not hard for me to draw a line through that effort.

R6

Market Impact
Lost in Rome
Breithorn

#6 MARKET IMPACT: Hasn’t run in a year but is working well for Jorge Abreu ahead of his return. This is a big drop in class off the bench, and any sort of step forward from his lone start to date would make him a formidable foe; #2 LOST IN ROME: Hasn’t done much wrong to this point with four in-the-money finishes in five starts. New rider David Cohen will likely be hoping for a speed duel early, as this one figures to be running well late; #4 BREITHORN: Is another that would benefit from some action up front going into the turn. His race here last month was his first try at the level, and he did have an excuse, but that’s far from the only troubled trip he’s had to this point in his career.

R7

Binkster (MTO)
La Hara
Duress

#6 LA HARA: Likely needed his return to the races last month, but he still ran second and earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. A similar effort likely wallops this group, and if one materializes, tests against stakes company may be in his future; #9 DURESS: Has two wins and a second in three starts since being claimed by Tom Albertrani and goes second off the layoff here. Two turns is a question mark, but the presence of Smart Strike on the bottom of his pedigree may be a hint that such a journey won’t bother him; #8 LIFE ON TOP: Merits a look underneath at what will likely be a generous price. He cuts back to a mile after a one-paced effort going longer at Belmont, and he could have every chance to come running late for a piece of it.

R8

Fierce Lady
Bertranda
Big Q

#2 FIERCE LADY: Set a fast pace before settling for third money earlier this meet, and that was her first start in five months. That was also her first outing for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, and while this is a big field, she certainly seems like the speed of the speed and I think she’ll be a bit sharper; #6 BERTRANDA: Has hit the board in her last seven starts with two wins, including a last-out victory over several of foes in this spot last month. She could sit a strong stalking trip in this spot, and consistency is certainly not an issue for a mare that’s earned nearly $400,000 the hard way; #11 BIG Q: Has knocked heads with stakes foes since breaking her maiden here last summer, and while this race isn’t easy, there is some element of class relief here. John Velazquez rides back after piloting her to second-place finishes in two state-bred stakes races earlier this year.

R9

Antoinette
Ricetta
Speaktomeofsummer

#3 ANTOINETTE: Is a fun horse to root for and never seems to fire a bad shot. She returns to the grass after running third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on dirt, and her running style implies that the Saratoga Oaks distance will fit her like a glove; #6 RICETTA: Makes her first start on U.S. soil and gives trainer Bill Mott the second half of a powerful 1-2 punch. She was third in a Group 3 in just her third career start, and Javier Castellano takes the call; #1 SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER: Is 3-for-3 going two turns on turf and most recently rallied to win the Grade 2 Lake Placid. There’s stuff to like here, but I’m taking the stance that this race just wasn’t that strong and that she’ll be a bit overbet.

R10

Yankee Empire
Red Zinger
Big Boy Mo

#2 YANKEE EMPIRE: Seems to have taken a step forward in his last two starts, the most recent of which was a win earlier this summer. This is his first start against winners, but he’s run up against talented horses in the past and it sure looks like he’s never been better; #4 RED ZINGER: Hasn’t run since December but has never finished worse than third at Saratoga. He’s worked steadily for Jeremiah Englehart, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, he’s capable of putting forth an effort that can win; #9 BIG BOY MO: Comes back into the claiming ranks after fading to sixth in a starter allowance last month. His lone prior try at this level saw him run third at Belmont, and if the Belmont form comes north, he’s got a shot at a big price.