horse | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/19)

Posted on July 25, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Over the past few years, I’ve wondered aloud why the Curlin Stakes is carded for the same week as the Jim Dandy. Every year, without fail, an ungraded, $100,000 race takes one or two horses that may have been contenders in Saratoga’s main prep for the Travers. Simply put, it doesn’t make any sense to me.

Here’s the idea I seem to pitch annually: Move the Curlin to Travers Day. I’d rather lose a few 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. This would give the Curlin a similar purpose to that of the Easy Goer, which is run on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It would be a far better fit on the calendar in that spot, and I sincerely hope rational logic prevails sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Doubles were rendered null and void when the second race was moved from turf to dirt.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve never been a real believer in this year’s bunch of American turf horses (aside from Bricks and Mortar). With that in mind, I’ll put some money behind Chilean invader #3 YA PRIMO in race 10, the Grade 2 Bowling Green. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I’ll also play $5 doubles singling him that start in the ninth (the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt) with #1 MITOLE and #4 FIRENZE FIRE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Grandview entry, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Ya Primo, Race 10

Teachable Moment
Wild Weekend
Blacktop Legend

#3 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Takes a big drop for formidable connections in just his second start of the season. A return to his 2018 form would almost certainly be good enough to beat these; #8 WILD WEEKEND: Debuts for Joe Sharp and sports several solid works ahead of his unveiling. This barn has had success with firsters in maiden claimers, and he may be a square price; #6 BLACKTOP LEGEND: Cuts back in distance after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. His lone turf sprint to date was OK, and Rosario riding back is a plus.

Rapido Gatta
Doll Collection
Quasar

#1 RAPIDO GATTA: Raced very wide when third last time out at Belmont. The rail draw, while not ideal, should ensure she covers less ground, and she seems to have enough early zip to establish position; #3 DOLL COLLECTION: Regally-bred daughter of Tapit and star sprinter Groupie Doll cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile at Churchill. The blinkers seem to have helped, and she may be on the improve; #7 QUASAR: Comes back to dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out and also adds blinkers. Her races two and three back were fine, and the recent clunker could mean a solid price.

Flying P entry (MTO)
Mission Command
Spectrolite

#5 MISSION COMMAND: Clearly prefers the grass and relished a return to the lawn last month at Belmont. That race came at this level, and while this came up as a pretty salty race for the level, his best would make him a contender at a price; #8 SPECTROLITE: Drops in class for this event and certainly seems like the main speed in here. His lone start at this route was a win in a 2017 starter allowance, and he’s hit the board in 11 of 13 career outings; #6 SCOUT’S HONOR: Found himself on the lead last time out, and that’s not his game. The 10-year-old veteran is best when stalking the pace, and he may get that trip here.

Grandview entry
Kowalski
Complexifier

GRANDVIEW ENTRY: Both #1 SHOPLIFTED and #1A SOVIET can win this, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two colts ran 1-2. I prefer the former, who fetched $800,000 earlier this year at auction and boasts a very strong gate drill on July 14th; #5 KOWALSKI: Ran pretty well when third in his debut, and this barn doesn’t usually have firsters ready to roll. His pedigree says he’ll get better with more experience; #7 COMPLEXIFIER: Will likely be a big price, as this barn’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. However, his workouts are sharp, and I think he has a big shot to outrun his odds.

Control Group (MTO)
Emaraaty
Keep Quiet

#7 EMARAATY: Makes his first start in more than a year after coming over from Europe, where he ran against some of the best horses on the continent. His running lines are dotted with names like Expert Eye, U S Navy Flag, and Mendelssohn, and if he’s ready, he likely wins; #9 KEEP QUIET: Loves Saratoga and has run well in all four of his starts this season. This will be his first start for the Steve Asmussen barn, and he should be running well late; #2 FRONTIER MARKET: Won two in a row late last year before heading to the sidelines and merits respect for the Brown barn. If his stablemate isn’t 100%, he has a big shot.

More Mischief
Makin’ Out
Flashpackinbarbie

#9 MORE MISCHIEF: Was second in her return to the races back in May and flashed talent as a 2-year-old. Her recent local drills look strong, and she may be able to rate off of what figures to be a fast early pace; #1 MAKIN’ OUT: Romped here last year, but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since September. She’s worked well of late and may be ready to run; #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE: Waltzed home by more than eight lengths in her debut at Aqueduct and earned a strong 77 Beyer Speed Figure. She’s been freshened up since then and may be ready to take a step forward at second asking.

Economic Policy
Blanket of Roses
Are You Kitten Me

#5 ECONOMIC POLICY: Fetched $210,000 at auction in 2017 and is a half-brother to two winners. He’s bred to love two turns on turf and gets my nod in a tricky 2-year-old race; #2 BLANKET OF ROSES: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and is another that should like this journey. His dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Derby Kitten, and the presence of Javier Castellano doesn’t hurt; #6 ARE YOU KITTEN ME: Isn’t necessarily bred to be precocious, but he’s been working well for a very capable outfit and attracts Jose Ortiz. He’s cross-entered in a race at Ellis Park, but if he runs here, I think he’s a contender.

Fortune’s Fool
Chateau
Overdeliver

#5 FORTUNE’S FOOL: Dueled through fast fractions last time out before being reeled in by a talented 3-year-old, and this seems like a weaker spot. Castellano rides back, and a repeat effort should be enough to get the job done; #4 CHATEAU: Reeled off three wins in a row not long ago and figures to be on or near the lead early on. He’d likely prefer a wet track, but his fast-track form is still fine; #9 OVERDELIVER: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He cuts back in distance and draws favorably here, but this seems a hair shorter than he wants to go.

Mitole
Firenze Fire
Imperial Hint

#1 MITOLE: May be the best older male in training right now and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and there’s other early speed signed on, but anything close to his best would make him a formidable foe; #4 FIRENZE FIRE: Was fifth behind Mitole in the Grade 1 Met Mile, but shortens up and may get plenty of pace to run at. That convergence of factors may make him a contender at a square price; #3 IMPERIAL HINT: Looks to defend his title in this race, but may have lost a step from his 2018 form. He makes his first start since a third-place finish in Dubai here, and he’ll need to have his running shoes on.

R10

Ya Primo
Channel Maker
Arklow

#3 YA PRIMO: Makes his American debut for Chad Brown after establishing himself as one of the top horses in his native Chile. This doesn’t seem like a strong race for the level, and foreign invaders getting Lasix for the first time often take big steps forward; #5 CHANNEL MAKER: Ran fourth behind Bricks and Mortar, America’s top older male on turf, in the Grade 1 Manhattan and returns to defend his title in the Bowling Green. He likes this turf course, and there may be enough pace signed on to set up for him; #1 ARKLOW: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He was a neck behind Channel Maker in the Man o’ War and is another that would benefit from a fast pace.

R11

War of Will
Tacitus
Global Campaign

#6 WAR OF WILL: Ran like a tired horse in the Belmont, which was his sixth race in less than five months. He’s been freshened up for this event and could sit an ideal stalking trip, which would allow him to channel the form he showed winning the Preakness; #5 TACITUS: Was a good second in the Belmont and has won at this distance and two-turn route configuration before. He may want more early speed, and this isn’t the goal, but if he’s ready to run, he’ll be tough; #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Wired the field in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, which included eventual Belmont winner Sir Winston. He’s certainly got talent; the question is, does he want two turns?

R12

Surge Pricing
My Macho
Letterman

#5 SURGE PRICING: Won his debut and was fourth against winners last time out at Belmont. He adds blinkers and takes a big drop in class back to the claiming ranks, and he looms large in the Saturday finale; #4 MY MACHO: Raced wide last time out at Laurel and is another dropping in for a tag. This is his second start off the bench, and he’s won going two turns on turf before; #12 LETTERMAN: Faded to eighth in his first start against winners last time out, but won impressively two back at Aqueduct. That was a two-turn race, and he returns to that configuration here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/26/19)

Posted on July 24, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Earlier this week, The Daily Racing Form reported that trainer Marcus Vitali was suspended for one year by officials at Delaware Park, and that he allegedly confiscated a package of suspected contraband. Shortly after the initial story broke, The Paulick Report added more details, reporting that Vitali dashed out of the room and somehow evaded security personnel.

I’m all for due process, especially in a sport where percentages of medications are measured in picograms and nanograms. Having said that, if this story is proven true, many racing jurisdictions have a lot of explaining to do regarding Vitali’s ability to have stalls and enter horses. Trainers who cheat give the ones who don’t a bad name, and at a time when racing is constantly under a microscope, shouldn’t we be doing all we can to clean up the sport?

NYRA has already shown an ability to bar trainers from running horses at Saratoga. I sincerely hope those in power do their due diligence and, if these details prove accurate, take appropriate action.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Ratajkowski settled for second, which turned doubles and Pick Threes into losing wagers. We dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against #3 COUNTENANCE in the opener. 3/5 just seems way too short. I’ll use #2 HANDLE WITH CARE, #5 G. T. SONIA, and #7 KNOW POINT GIVEN in $3 doubles that end with the #1/1A/1X entry and #8 ASSAULT BREAKER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18

– – – – –

BEST BET: Queen of Beas, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Know Point Given, Race 1

Handle With Care
G. T. Sonia
Know Point Given

#2 HANDLE WITH CARE: Has run second in consecutive starts since coming back to the dirt. The cutback in distance to seven furlongs should suit her, and if you’re taking a stab against the likely favorite (as I am), she seems like a logical alternative; #5 G. T. SONIA: Returns to dirt and drops down in class for this event. A repeat of her race three back, when she ran second for a $30,000 tag, would put her right there; #7 KNOW POINT GIVEN: Is tough to endorse on top given her 0-for-19 career mark, but her recent form looks slightly sharper if you toss the wet-track races. Her two-back effort, when she was second against similar, was fine.

Assault Breaker
Repole entry
Victory Built

#8 ASSAULT BREAKER: Ran well when second in his debut on dirt and goes to turf, which he’s bred to love. He holds an experience edge over most of these and seems like a formidable favorite; REPOLE ENTRY: I most prefer #1A MO READY, who flopped at 2/5 odds in his debut but is bred to like the lawn. If this race somehow gets rained off the turf, #1 MICROSECOND may be tough; #7 VICTORY BUILT: Is an intriguing price in his debut. He fetched $40,000 at auction earlier this year despite a pretty modest pedigree, and his 290 turf Tomlinson figure is above average.

Missle Bomb (MTO)
I Can Do Anything
Bourbon in May

#6 I CAN DO ANYTHING: Was third in his first start against winners despite a far outside post last time out at Churchill Downs. He draws much better here and looks very tough; #8 BOURBON IN MAY: Makes his first start since January, when he was beaten three lengths in a stakes race at Gulfstream Park. His two-back maiden win was sharp, and he may have matured in his time off; #4 ALL SYSTEMS GO: Showed speed in a swiftly-run event downstate and figures to be prominent early on. The slight cutback in distance could help him here.

Queen of Beas
Held Accountable
Nonsensical

#1 QUEEN OF BEAS: Exits the Grade 1 Acorn, where she chased the likes of Guarana and Serengeti Empress. She tries two turns for the first time, but comes up against what seems like a soft field for the level; #5 HELD ACCOUNTABLE: Has not run since December, but won two in a row late last year and may be capable on her best day. She’s worked well of late and may be a price; #3 NONSENSICAL: Exits a distant third-place finish in a minor stakes race at Delaware Park. She took advantage of a perfect trip two back at Belmont, and she may be on or near a reasonable pace early on.

Tiz R Bella
Elizabeth Nicole
Wildcat Belle

#9 TIZ R BELLA: Has won two in a row coming into this race and may have simply been a dirt horse all along. The outside post should be a big help, and she’ll loom large if her Belmont form travels with her; #2 ELIZABETH NICOLE: Took a step forward for new connections last time out at Belmont and returns to her favorite track here. Carmouche rides back and figures to have her running hard out of the gate; #6 WILDCAT BELLE: Beat a number of these foes last time out at Belmont and seems to be an upward trajectory in form. Her best race is certainly good enough to win.

Balon Rose
Ocean Fire
Monhegan

#9 BALON ROSE: Fetched $1.6 million at auction back in 2017 and was second in her debut earlier this year. She’s bred up and down for this distance and has every right to improve at second asking; #7 OCEAN FIRE: Made a strong middle move in her unveiling last month before flattening out late and fading to third. She’s another that should enjoy the added distance she gets in her second career start; #2 MONHEGAN: Has made a habit out of collecting minor checks in similar turf routes. She seems well-positioned to do that here as well given her stalking style and experience edge on most of her opponents.

Righteous Ruby
It Was Considered
Slimey

#7 RIGHTEOUS RUBY: Has won two in a row and makes her first start for Danny Gargan, one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. This is a bit of a class test, but she’s in form and this barn must be respected; #5 IT WAS CONSIDERED: Was third behind my top pick last time out, but she may have needed that race coming off of a long layoff. She’s run well at this distance before and could be primed for an improved performance; #6 SLIMEY: Pulled off a 15-1 upset earlier in the meet when she rallied from far back in the slop. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

Show Prince (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Dowse’s Beach

#6 NEW YORK’S FINEST: Has four wins in five local starts and merits respect on the drop in class. We figure to know his chances right out of the gate; if he breaks well, he’ll be tough, and if he doesn’t, well…; #4 DOWSE’S BEACH: Is another that has had a lot of success here, having won four of seven starts in upstate New York. Irad Ortiz, Jr., gets back aboard, and he piloted this gelding to three straight scores late last year; #8 BANANA THIEF: Won at this route a season ago and figures to be doing his best running late. He’s been competitive at this level in the past and would benefit from a speed duel.

Looking At Bikinis
Endorsed
Highest Honors

#3 LOOKING AT BIKINIS: Comes into the Curlin undefeated in two starts, having most recently topped a solid allowance group downstate. The recent work jumps off the page, and two turns should not be an issue; #7 ENDORSED: Came off the bench running last time out, winning a six-furlong allowance at Belmont in his first start since flopping in the Grade 1 Champagne. He’s bred to love this route, and he graduated at first asking here last summer; #8 HIGHEST HONORS: Won a swiftly-run maiden race last time out, and the runner-up has since come back to graduate as well. He completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown.

R10

Later Cat (MTO)
Awesome Adversary
Prince Halo

#5 AWESOME ADVERSARY: Was second in a similar spot last time out, and this seems like a “now or never” spot for this 15-start maiden. He’s taken a step forward since being switched to the turf, and gets my nod in a challenging race to handicap; #8 PRINCE HALO: Was fifth in the race my top pick exits and tries two turns on grass for the first time. He’s got the running style to appreciate this route, and Luis Saez signing on is a plus; #9 THE GRAND CANAL: Was beaten just a length at Belmont last time and came running late despite a wide trip. This draw is another one that’s less than ideal, but two turns could be what he’s looking for.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/25/19)

Posted on July 23, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $835

I was at Saratoga every day during the 2013 season. That season saw a dramatic uptick in the number of races run at The Spa, and the effect on those working on the premises was noticeable. The strangest initiative of all involved running 11-race programs on Thursdays. Most fans left by around the ninth race, and from the press box, several of us could count the number of fans left on the apron for the late double.

There are 11 races on the Thursday program, due in large part to the cancellation of Saturday’s card. I understand that there’s some ground to make up, but this seems more like an endurance test than anything else. I wish there was a better solution, and I sincerely hope this is a one-time thing.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Our Pick Four ticket was null and void after two legs of the sequence were taken off the turf.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll try to get some value out of my best bet of the day. That’s #6 RATAJKOWSKI in the third race. I’ll play $5 doubles starting in the second race that single her and kick off with #2 PERSIAN QUEEN and #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER. Additionally, I’ll start $3 doubles with Ratajkowski that end with #3 BAIL OUT, #4 THIRD EDITION, #6 SHENNAN, and #7 NOBLE SPIRIT in the fourth. Finally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the second race that uses all of these horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Ratajkowski, Race 3
LONGSHOT: Tizaprincessa, Race 6

Vosne Romanee
Bedrock
Gibralfaro

#6 VOSNE ROMANEE: Makes his American debut after running against some high-quality steeplechasers overseas. He gets Lasix for the first time, and if he channels his 2018 form, he’ll be very tough; #9 BEDROCK: Also debuts in the U.S. and gets Lasix for highly-regarded connections. The layoff is a concern, but his best effort is certainly enough to win; #12 GIBRALFARO: Misfired in the Grade 1 Iroquois, but ran well in stakes company for three starts in a row prior to that. A return to that form would make him a contender at a price.

Wedontbelieveher
Persian Queen
Polished Copper

#5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER: Debuts for Rudy Rodriguez and comes in with an impressive local work tab. Offspring of young sire Bayern look like runners, and she’ll likely be favored; #2 PERSIAN QUEEN: Completes a powerful one-two punch for Rodriguez. Like her stablemate, she seems well-meant in her unveiling, especially off of a strong recent drill; #4 POLISHED COPPER: Debuts for a barn that’s done very well with a limited number of starters this meet. She’s worked consistently here and could be ready to go.

Ratajkowski
Lucky Move
Paved With Gold

#6 RATAJKOWSKI: Tries winners for the first time, but it sure seems like she’s caught a weak race for the level. She’s bred to love two turns, and she figures to be prominent all the way around; #1 LUCKY MOVE: Returns to the state-bred ranks after running third in a starter allowance race at Churchill. She’s run well around two turns before and would benefit from any moisture left in the track; #7 PAVED WITH GOLD: Comes back to dirt after showing a bit of speed last time out on turf at Belmont. She’s another that should like two turns, and it’s tough to poke holes in the connections.

Bail Out
Noble Spirit
Third Edition

#3 BAIL OUT: Stretches out to a marathon distance and has the pedigree to love such a trip. He’s been close many times, and this might be a “now or never” type of spot; #7 NOBLE SPIRIT: Likely needed his 2019 debut, which was his first start since September. This barn does well with runners second off of long layoffs, and he should be fully-cranked here; #4 THIRD EDITION: Was victimized by a slow pace earlier this month and could get a better setup here. His running lines feature several next-out winners, and he could get a piece of this at a price.

Pyron
Dark Money
Hawaiian Noises

#3 PYRON: Was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 two starts ago and now drops in for a claiming tag. Anything close to his best race would make him very, very tough; #6 DARK MONEY: Makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez following a claim late last month. He sat a perfect trip last time out against a weaker group, but figures to have more opposition up front early on; #1 HAWAIIAN NOISES: Won a stakes race earlier this year at Turfway, but was most recently beaten at 2/5 odds in an allowance at Belterra Park. He’s a contender on his best day, but it’s fair to wonder if that time has passed.

Righteous Ruby (MTO)
Joy of Treasure
Tizaprincessa

#11 JOY OF TREASURE: Just missed last time out at Churchill Downs and figures to be flying late. This race seems to have a lot of early speed signed on, and such a scenario would set things up perfectly for the morning line favorite; #10 TIZAPRINCESSA: Didn’t break well last time out at Belmont, but has a history of making up ground in the stretch. It’s encouraging that Joel Rosario rides back, and I think she’s got a shot at a big price; #1 SEASIDE DANCER: Has reeled off four wins in a row and seems like one of the main speed horses in the field. This is a class jump on a new surface, but he could be dangerous if he’s left alone on the front end.

Risky Mischief
Aubrey Tate
Playtone

#3 RISKY MISCHIEF: Fetched $350,000 at auction last summer and has worked well for a trainer that can get horses ready to go right away. This isn’t an easy spot, but she seems prepared for her debut; #11 AUBREY TATE: Was bet ahead of her planned debut, but was scratched at the gate. As mentioned earlier, offspring of Bayern look like runners, and she’s a threat if she draws in off the AE list; #4 PLAYTONE: Has worked well at Keeneland and ships in for an astute barn having a strong year. It’s a bit early to tell if offspring of Belmont winner Tonalist want to sprint, but the works indicate she may be precocious.

South of the Shore (MTO)
Mascha
Maid To Remember

#7 MASCHA: Makes her American debut for Chad Brown and showed plenty of potential overseas. She was second in a Group 3 last summer, and that race was won by multiple graded stakes winner Homerique; #2 MAID TO REMEMBER: Has finished second in both of her American starts, including the Grade 3 Eatontown at Monmouth. She’ll be running well late; the question is, will there be enough pace to set up for her?; #4 ENGLISH SOUL: Ran a solid second in her seasonal debut last month at Belmont and could improve second off the bench. This isn’t an easy spot, but she won two stakes races last summer and could be improving. DIRT SELECTIONS: SOUTH OF THE SHORE, ENGLISH SOUL, NONSENSICAL.

Gold for the King
Celtic Chaos
Saratoga Giro

#1 GOLD FOR THE KING: Returns to the state-bred ranks after tackling the likes of Catalina Cruiser downstate. He’s got enough speed to press the pace, which will be helpful given the rail draw; #2 CELTIC CHAOS: Likes Saratoga and has a history of doing his best running in the final quarter-mile. His last-out win was impressive, and the 100 Beyer Speed Figure represents a new career-high; #3 SARATOGA GIRO: Merits a look in the exotics given the likely race shape. There isn’t much early speed signed on, which means this longshot could have a chance to dictate terms going into the far turn.

R10

Way Early
Appealing Briefs
Macagone

#4 WAY EARLY: Hasn’t run since December, but raced in several big spots a season ago. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and the most recent workout indicates he may be maturing as a 4-year-old; #6 APPEALING BRIEFS: Has never finished worse than third in four starts at Saratoga and stretches back out to a two-turn trip, one that should play to his strengths. Jose Ortiz gets the call, and we may get a price; #5 MACAGONE: Makes his second start for Jason Servis, and runs here off of a second-place finish at Monmouth. At eight years old, he may be slightly past his peak, but it helps that the winner of his most recent race has come back to win again.

R11

Memories Eternal
Two Graces
Molly’s Nighthawk

#2 MEMORIES ETERNAL: Stalked a fast pace against maiden special weight foes and gets some class relief in this spot. It’s a very tough finale, but there doesn’t seem to be much speed signed on, which could play right into her hands; #6 TWO GRACES: Is another dropping in class, and her lone start at this level was a solid third at Aqueduct behind a next-out winner. If an unexpected speed duel ensues, she could stand to benefit; #1 MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK: Has stepped forward in two starts this season and stretches out to two turns. The rider switch to Junior Alvarado is noteworthy.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/24/19)

Posted on July 22, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $835

Generally speaking, as a handicapper, I strive for three winners per day. Three winners per day, over the course of 40 days, translates to 120 winners, which is usually enough to contend for the meet’s handicapping title. If you’d told me I’d be one off of that pace through eight days, despite a doughnut and a one-win Opening Day, I’d have probably been OK with it.

All of this is a prelude to me saying that I want Liam Durbin’s feed and medical records examined, pronto. This man is putting on a handicapping clinic. What he’s done so far this meet is pretty special, and we’ve all got some going to do in order to reel him in. Thankfully, we’ve got plenty of time, but we might need it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Sequin ran second in the seventh, which spoiled exactas and doubles that had the horse on top. In total, we dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: This is tricky, as it rained pretty hard earlier in the week and we may be off the turf. Assuming we’re staying on the turf, I’ll play an early Pick Four that starts in the third race (remember, the opener is a steeplechase) and singles my best bet of the day in the payoff leg. My 50-cent ticket reads as follows: 2,5,8 with 2,8,10 with 2,4,5,8,9 with 7.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

– – – – –

BEST BET: Alfie Solomons, Race 6
LONGSHOT: More Than Silver, Race 3

Sportswear
Elucidation
Belisarius

#9 SPORTSWEAR: Has won two in a row since going to the steeplechase ranks and goes out for Jonathan Sheppard in a wide-open renewal of the Jonathan Kiser Novice. His two wins have been sharp, and he gets weight from many of these; #7 ELUCIDATION: Makes his second start off a long layoff and won both starts over fences a season ago. This may be a tougher group, but his return was fine and he may still be improving; #10 BELISARIUS: Comes in off of two clunkers, but his 2018 form was sharp and included a strong second in a Grade 3 event. If he channels that form, he could be competitive at a price.

The Honest Toun
Golani Brigade
Larsen entry

#5 THE HONEST TOUN: Rallied when third in his debut last month for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. Irad Ortiz rides back, and he ran like he’ll appreciate the extra distance he gets in this spot; #9 GOLANI BRIGADE: Was beaten a half-length by my top pick last time out, when he was a one-paced fourth. He’s another that may improve with experience and an added furlong; LARSEN ENTRY: I prefer #1 FREAKY STYLEY, who has worked well ahead of his debut. Seven furlongs is a tricky distance to debut at, but this barn can pop at a price with first-time starters.

Beyond Brown (MTO)
Jen’s Battle
More Than Silver

#2 JEN’S BATTLE: Ran third in her debut despite checking shortly after the break. She’s bred up and down to go long on turf, and she gets a chance to do exactly that for a barn due to get off the duck sooner rather than later; #5 MORE THAN SILVER: Is another bred to love the lawn and will almost certainly be a square price. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Mineshaft mare, and this barn has done fairly well with debuting runners over the past few years; #8 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY: Has been working lights-out for Team Funny Cide and will almost certainly be favored here. If there’s an issue here, it’s that this barn hasn’t had much luck with firsters. DIRT SELECTIONS: BEYOND BROWN, JEN’S BATTLE, SKY KITTEN.

Annals of Time
Devamani
King Zachary

#1 ANNALS OF TIME: Stretches out in distance after running second in his comeback race last month at Belmont. He should be better-meant in this spot, and this length should be more to his liking; #10 DEVAMANI: Has stepped forward this season with two wins and a second in three 2019 starts. He’ll be running well late and could use a solid early pace; #8 KING ZACHARY: Has run in some big spots over the last two years and tries turf for the first time. He’s bred to like it, merits a look at a price, and would also be very imposing if this was rained off the turf.

Crea’s Bklyn Law
Giant Boo Boo
Indigo Yankee

#9 CREA’S BKLYN LAW: Improved first off the claim when second against similar downstate. He’s been freshened since then, should be running well late, and merits a tepid nod in a wide-open event; #8 GIANT BOO BOO: Ran well here twice a season ago and goes out for a barn that’s off to a strong start at the meet. He’s got plenty of early speed, but can also sit just off the pace, which could be helpful; #2 INDIGO YANKEE: Ran a decent fourth first off the claim at Churchill Downs and drops in class a bit for this race. He won here last year and has shown an ability to close from far back.

Alfie Solomons
Green entry
More Like It

#7 ALFIE SOLOMONS: Fetched $285,000 at auction and has been working very well ahead of his debut. Wesley Ward’s one of the best in the game with firsters, and he’s a full brother to world-class sprinter World of Trouble; #1 ANOTHER MIRACLE: Was second in his debut and figures to take a lot of money due to the presence of sire American Pharoah. A repeat of his debut makes him a contender; the question is, does he want turf?; #2 MORE LIKE IT: Is bred for turf and could hit the board at a price. His recent workouts here are solid, and the 331 turf Tomlinson number jumps off the page.

Six Percent
Rinaldi
Funny Guy

#8 SIX PERCENT: Has improved significantly in each of his three career starts and takes a big jump up in class. However, he’s got some turf pedigree and can close, which should come in handy in a race with plenty of early speed signed on; #3 RINALDI: Upset a similar-quality group last time out at Belmont and tries two turns for the first time. Offspring of Posse don’t necessarily want distance, but any improvement off of his last race would make him tough; #9 FUNNY GUY: Took to turf well when second behind my second choice last time out. He’s another that may like a fast pace.

Mia Mischief
Chalon
Ours to Run

#4 MIA MISCHIEF: May be hitting her stride as a 4-year-old and looms large in this spot. She won a Grade 1 two back, topped a talented field last time out, and ran well here twice last year; #2 CHALON: Hasn’t finished out of the exacta since September of 2017 and cuts back to six furlongs, which seems like her ideal trip. She was beaten a head in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and seems like the main danger; #6 OURS TO RUN: Has reeled off six wins in a row and ships in for Larry Jones, who generally means business when he makes a trip to upstate New York. It’s a big class test, but she’s won 12 of 20 lifetime outings, beat my top pick two starts ago, and attracts John Velazquez.

Leah’s Dream (MTO)
Enthusiastic Gal
Violent Times

#6 ENTHUSIASTIC GAL: Was outclassed in Grade 3 company last time out but drops back to the right level here. She had two wins and two seconds in her four starts prior to that effort, and she figures to be rolling late; #8 VIOLENT TIMES: Comes back to turf after running third behind a pair of next-out winners last month at Gulfstream. She was second at this route last summer and may be up close early on; #7 MENTALITY: Has lots of early speed and wired the field last time out at Belmont. That was her first start since November, so she could be in even better form here. DIRT SELECTIONS: LEAH’S DREAM, MISS MYSTIQUE, VICTORIAS FIRE.

R10

Risky Mandate
Stifle Yourself
Fair Regis

#3 RISKY MANDATE: Debuted with a bang last month at Churchill, when she cruised home by more than six lengths despite not being fully extended. She facts another full field here, but the local work looks sharp and she seems ready to go; #11 STIFLE YOURSELF: Graduated at first asking over a fast Belmont strip last month, but the recent works indicate that she’s no fluke. The outside draw could help her, as could her tactical speed; #2 FAIR REGIS: Was claimed last time out by an astute outfit and is protected in this event. This may be a bit long for her, but a move forward off of her last-out victory could mean she picks up a check.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/21/19)

Posted on July 19, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $865

My favorite story about the late Marylou Whitney involves Birdstone’s upset of Triple Crown hopeful Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes. She was the winning owner of a horse that just won one of racing’s most prestigious races. Her first instinct, though, was not to celebrate, but to apologize to the crowd that came to see a coronation and largely went home disappointed.

You don’t need to be a follower of racing’s social scene (and trust me, I’m not) to understand and appreciate what Marylou Whitney brought to Saratoga. In addition to being a link to the aristocrats of the mid-20th century that congregated in the Saratoga clubhouse each summer, she facilitated a gigantic volume of service to the sport and those around it while asking for nothing in return.

By any measure, Marylou Whitney lived a full life. She was 93 years old when she passed away Friday, just a few weeks away from her induction into racing’s Hall of Fame as a “Pillar of the Turf.” If there’s one thing that’s certain, it’s this: Saratoga is a lesser place without her in it.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: After many chances, Andretta graduated out of the maiden ranks in the third race and spoiled Pick Four and double tickets. We dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll concentrate on the seventh race, where I like a pair of debuting runners. I’ll key #5 MERITATEN and #10 SEQUIN on top of $3 exactas that include those two, #1 FLY SO PRETTY, #7 MOM’S PASS, and #8 QUEEN OF SHADES underneath. Additionally, as a value play, I’ll use them to finish off $3 doubles that start with #6 MAMMA DEE (my longshot of the day) in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – –

BEST BET: Guarana, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Mamma Dee, Race 6

Markham
Renown
Whitman’s Poetry

#1 MARKHAN: Has won three in a row and is undefeated since coming to North America. He seems to be in career form right now, and he looms large as the one to beat in the first steeplechase of the meet; #4 RENOWN: Tossed his rider last time out, but has a solid body of work. Prior to becoming a solid steeplechase horse, he was stakes-placed on the flat and ran third in last year’s John’s Call; #7 WHITMAN’S POETRY: Always seems to fire, but is winless in his last eight starts. He can’t be ignored underneath, but he’s tough to trust on top.

Business Cycle
Brush Country
Heyitsnricopalazo

#6 BUSINESS CYCLE: Has misfired in both of his 2019 starts and takes a gigantic drop in class for this event. There’s a chance he peaked last year, but he did show some late interest last time and may not have to run to his 2018 form to win; #3 BRUSH COUNTRY: Was competitive when third against $40,000 claimers last time out at Churchill. In a race full of class-droppers, he seems fairly logical, especially given that his last two races have both come at this distance; #7 HEYITSNRICOPALAZO: Makes his second start off the layoff here (almost certainly to the delight of track announcer Larry Collmus) and showed some speed last time out. This barn is 2-for-2 so far this meet, and a step forward would make him a candidate to hit the board at a price.

Borough Boy (MTO)
Value Engineering
Bad Boy

#9 VALUE ENGINEERING: Is one of several dropping in for a tag for this barn Sunday, and like most of the others, he looks tough. He’s been very competitive against straight maidens, and several of his prior opponents have come back to win; #8 BAD BOY: Drops back in for a tag and was competitive against similar-quality foes this past winter at Gulfstream. The return to a two-turn route should suit him; #5 CRYPTO GOLD: Merits a look underneath at double-digit odds. He crossed the wire first two back before being DQ’d and should be moving in the right direction late.

Guarana
Point of Honor
Boxwood

#1 GUARANA: Certainly seems like the best horse in a below-average group of 3-year-old fillies, and she’s strictly the one to beat in the historic Coaching Club American Oaks. She’s never been two turns, but with her pedigree, such a trip shouldn’t be a problem; #5 POINT OF HONOR: Has won three of four starts and rallied to take a Grade 2 last time out at Pimlico. She may not get as much pace to run at here, but if nothing else, the distance won’t beat her; #3 BOXWOOD: May very well be the lone speed if Guarana’s rider opts to sit back. She was second in a solid optional claimer last time out and could hold on for a piece of it with the right trip.

Per Capita
Majority Rules
Scars Are Cool

#2 PER CAPITA: Tops a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown, who may very well sweep the early Pick Four. He was third in a very fast maiden race last month at Belmont and has the pedigree necessary for this two-turn trip; #6 MAJORITY RULES: Was a close-up second in his debut going a mile back in May. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but he boasts a few strong local works and could improve at second asking; #4 SCARS ARE COOL: Tries two turns for the first time after running a close-up third at Churchill Downs. The pedigree says he may want turf, but this barn’s quietly had an excellent year and cannot be ignored.

Mamma Dee
Chestnut Street
Art Buff

#6 MAMMA DEE: Was second against similar company at Belmont and comes back to two turns, a configuration she ran very well at this past winter at Gulfstream. Turf closers have run with aplomb so far this meet, and she figures to get a pace to run at; #1 CHESTNUT STREET: Has not run in nearly 11 months and drops in for a tag for the first time. She showed some talent here a season ago, but neither of those are strong signs for a 5-year-old mare that will likely be favored, so I’ll try to beat her; #9 ART BUFF: Comes back to turf, and while her lone prior turf start was a disaster, there’s reason to think she’ll improve. Her dam was a stakes-winner on the lawn, she boasts a strong 310 turf Tomlinson figure, and this barn’s horses tend to need some time to get going.

Sequin
Meritaten
Fly So Pretty

#10 SEQUIN: Fetched $500,000 at auction, and the pedigree says she’s a runner. Early returns on young sire Bayern are promising, and her dam is a half-sister to both Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and Grade 1-placed filly Mother Mother; #5 MERITATEN: Debuts for a barn that can have first-time starters ready to roll. Her dam is a full sister to multiple Group 1 winner The Gurkha, and she was also Grade 3-placed in Ireland; #1 FLY SO PRETTY: Was third in her debut despite a very wide trip and draws more favorably here. Javier Castellano hops aboard, and the Mark Casse barn merits respect.

Basin
Three Technique
Yankee Empire

#6 BASIN: Was beaten a nose by By Your Side, who went on to roll in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier in the meet. That flattering result, plus the potential for improvement at second asking, make this one the one to beat; #2 THREE TECHNIQUE: Was a good second in his debut, and the colt owned by Hall of Fame football coach Bill Parcells is another that could take a step up. The pedigree screams “turf router,” but this barn has done well with 2-year-olds; #3 YANKEE EMPIRE: Ran well when chasing my second selection in his unveiling, and did so for a barn whose firsters aren’t always fully-cranked. The recent bullet workout looks very attractive, and I think he’s a must-use in the exotics.

Bernin’ Thru Gold
Hoboe
Morrison

#10 HOBOE: Ran well here twice a season ago and has the right running style for how the turf is playing. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he likes two turns and will be rolling late; #7 MORRISON: Is another with solid local experience, as he won an optional claimer here last year before running a competitive fourth in the West Point. He likely needed his last start off of a long layoff, and if you’re looking for a price to light your fire, this one may be it; #1 VARIANT PERCEPTION: Lost a photo last time out at Monmouth, but did so to a next-out winner after coming home very quickly. If he brings that form north, he’s definitely a contender for powerhouse connections.

R10

Restoring Hope
Borracho
Majestic Affair

#2 RESTORING HOPE: Wired a solid field of optional claimers in his 2019 debut at Gulfstream back in March and returns here. This distance should hit him right between the eyes; let’s just hope his journey here doesn’t spark as much outrage as his last one in New York did; #8 BORRACHO: Rallied to finish third in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, and it’s a bit surprising to see him turn up here rather than in a stakes race. The faster they go early, the better his chances are; #9 MAJESTIC AFFAIR: Steps up in class off a win for Robertino Diodoro, but loves this seven-furlong trip and gets Jose Ortiz. The outside post and a perfect stalking trip could make him a contender.

R11

Significant Form
Morticia
Broadway Run

#4 SIGNIFICANT FORM: Overcame a slow pace to win her return to the races in the Grade 3 Intercontinental last time out. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs is a question mark, but she showed some maturity in her 2019 debut, and I think she can handle it; #5 MORTICIA: Is the other logical top choice in here and always seems to fire. She’s hit the board in 19 of 22 career starts, won nine times, and has a win over this turf course; #2 BROADWAY RUN: Was a close-up fourth behind Significant Form last time out, but seven furlongs may have been a tad long for her. She won a stakes race at this route a season ago and could relish the shorter trip.

R12

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Pipes
Bad Guy

#10 PIPES: Gets my top pick in what I consider the toughest race of the meet to handicap to this point. I can’t feel too strongly about anything here, but he checked hard last time out and lost all chance, so if nothing else, this is a value play for me; #11 BAD GUY: Has tried two turns on turf once in the last year, and that race was his lone win in that time span. The outside post is an obstacle, but he should be running well late; #8 INTERNET OF THINGS: Tries turf for the first time and may not have to be much to pick up a check. Chad Brown’s numbers with first-time turfers are strong (shocker), and he’s shown some versatility in the past.

R13

Wow Cat
She’s a Julie
Golden Award

#5 WOW CAT: Gets a tepid top selection in a very strong renewal of the Grade 3 Shuvee. I don’t like the layoff, but there’s a lot of early speed signed on (including her stablemate), and that could set the table for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up; #1 SHE’S A JULIE: Has developed into a very good 4-year-old for Steve Asmussen and won a Grade 1 two back at Churchill. She was second in last year’s Alabama, so we know she likes the track, and she should have enough speed to use the rail to her advantage; #3 GOLDEN AWARD: Has a resume that looks far better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Doubledogdare. She was a good second last time out, when she was beaten a nose by a next-out winner at this level, and the recent bullet workout is attractive.