BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,138

Thursday is New York Thoroughbred Aftercare Day, where we celebrate organizations that do tireless work helping thoroughbreds after their racing days are over. The day’s events include showcases of horses that have gone from the racetrack to second careers in English and western disciplines.

Thoroughbred horses race for very short parts of their lives. They can live deep into their twenties (sometimes their thirties), and we only see them for a few years. A select few in each crop go off to stud, but thousands don’t, and the work done by organizations such as TAKE2, TAKE THE LEAD, New Vocations, and the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation is immensely valuable.

Enjoy the Thursday program, and if you do well, consider a donation to an aftercare organization.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: We got off to a pretty good start with the exacta in the eighth race. Gilmore won, My Noble Knight ran second, and my $30 investment returned $168.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a swing in the second race. As “best bets of the day” go, #9 ANNEXPERIENCE is a tepid one, but I’ve seen lone speed do well on the inner turf too much to ignore it when I see it. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS: JULY 17TH, 2025

Best Bet: Annexperience, Race 2
Longshot: Blame It On K J, Race 10

R1

Glint
Indy Magic
Az U Chase Me

#3 GLINT (2-1): Looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in races run out of the Wilson chute. He was second in a fast race for the level downstate last time out, and a repeat of that effort gives him a big shot in the Thursday lid-lifter; #6 INDY MAGIC (9/2): Comes back to the dirt after a failed turf experiment at Churchill and adds both blinkers and Luis Saez. This seems like what he wants to do, and his two-back win for this tag was a good one; #4 AZ U CHASE ME (6-1): Was very, very wide last time when fourth in the race my top pick also exits. His record includes a win at the Spa, and while he’s no burner out of the gate, I think he’s got more early speed than he showed last time out.

R2

Annexperience
Before the Wind
Spirit of the Law

#9 ANNEXPERIENCE (7/2): Sure looks like the lone speed, and that’s always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. I’m not quite sure if this distance is truly what he wants given his pedigree, but if he’s left alone up top through soft fractions, that might not matter; #2 BEFORE THE WIND (6-1): Adds blinkers and Irad Ortiz Jr. here after a wide trip downstate probably compromised him. He should save more ground here, and he did show a little tactical speed two back when second behind a much-the-best winner; #4 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (3-1): Ran on well late to be third in his turf debut last time and may be favored because of that. However, I simply don’t think the race shape works in his favor, and while I respect this barn a great deal, the stats show a 1-for-28 year as of this writing. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against.

R3

Outsource
Smooth Breeze
Leon Blue

#4 OUTSOURCE (4-1): Came from way, way back to get the money in his turf debut last time out, which doubled as his first start for this outfit. There seems to be some pace signed on in the Rick Violette, and while there’s some “bounce” potential here, a repeat effort would make him a major player; #6 SMOOTH BREEZE (7/5): Was a runaway winner two back before settling for second in an off-the-turf event last month. His first-out win at this route last summer was solid, and he wouldn’t be shocking, but I don’t think he towers over this group as much as his likely price suggests; #5 LEON BLUE (5/2): Was run down by my top pick last time, but has never truly run a bad race in five tries to this point. He’s not the only horse in here with early zip, but if he’s able to get comfortable, he could lead them a long way.

R4

Macaw
Schlomo
Ride Up

#2 MACAW (9/2): Has won two of three since coming off the bench and may offer some value stepping up in class. He probably didn’t beat a ton last time out, but he stacks up well on speed figures and has shown an ability to pass others late (which most of his opponents haven’t done yet); #7 SCHLOMO (6/5): Is another short price I’m a bit skeptical of early on. His two and three-back wins were sharp, but he’s far from the only speed horse in this field, and the class drop is an alarming one for this barn. Perhaps he makes me look silly, but there are some red flags here; #6 RIDE UP (7/2): Didn’t break that well when fourth last time out and was a solid wire-to-wire winner two back. He sports a flashy recent work and has won here before, so it’s possible he’s sitting on a bounce-back performance.

R5

Fiddling Felix
Aerate
Motel Patel

#8 FIDDLING FELIX (5/2): Takes a monster class drop here and may have needed his last start, which was his first try since October. He showed a bit of potential last season, including a fourth-place finish behind Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, and there’s reason to think he wakes up here; #2 AERATE (5-1): Ran up against some OK fields for the level three and four back and returns to dirt after an unlucky trip on the grass last time. He probably wasn’t winning, but the wide trip certainly cost him some ground, and the Ortiz/Rice combo merits respect; #9 MOTEL PATEL (8-1): Looks like the main speed in here, and that’s not a bad thing to be in bottom-level maiden claimers. He’s got some stamina issues, to be sure, but if he’s able to make an easy lead, he could be the one to catch turning for home.

R6

Big Heleonora (MTO)
Trading Trouble
Charlottesuniverse

#4 TRADING TROUBLE (8-1): Boasts some strong works for a barn that doesn’t usually push young horses too hard. She’s out of a mare by Exchange Rate, a fantastic turf influence, and her second dam, Considerate, was stakes-placed on the lawn; #7 CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE (3-1): Fetched $400,000 at auction last summer and is bred to be a good one. She’s by Into Mischief and comes from a classy female family with plenty of black-type horses attached. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because the pedigree doesn’t necessarily say she wants to go short or run on turf; #3 TICKET TO RIDE (20-1): Had a ton of trouble in the Astoria, which was an ambitious spot in which to debut anyway. In a race with plenty of first-time starters, she’s got a significant experience edge, and that may be enough for her to crash the exotics at a big price.

R7

Great Richie M
Divine Leader
Skylander

#2 GREAT RICHIE M (5/2): Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to make these kinds of moves. He could get an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip beneath Irad Ortiz Jr., and if he does, he’s probably the one they’ll have to hold off when the real running starts; #10 DIVINE LEADER (5-1): Has won twice at this tricky distance this season, albeit against what seem like easier groups than what he lines up against here. However, he’s probably the main speed, and he’s shown he can be tough to pass if he’s given his desired trip; #6 SKYLANDER (6-1): Cuts back to one turn after a failed route experiment against higher-level competition, and this seems like a better spot for him. It’s possible he’s tailed off a bit after the barn switch, but he’s a contender if he can channel his form from this past winter at Aqueduct.

R8

Stars and Stripes
Dr. Kraft
Lordship

#3 STARS AND STRIPES (6/5): Couldn’t have been much more impressive last time out, when he splashed home to win by double-digits at Aqueduct. This is a much better group, to be sure, but he has every right to move forward further in just his third career start. If he does, look out; #6 DR. KRAFT (4-1): Has enjoyed a strong 2025 campaign, with his lone off-the-board finish coming in a race where he couldn’t run on Lasix. His last-out win was a good one, and his usual race almost certainly gets him a piece of this one; #7 LORDSHIP (8-1): Tried stakes company at Monmouth last time, and those waters proved just a bit too deep. However, it’s not like he ran terribly that day, and while he probably needs to move forward on speed figures, that’s not impossible given these powerhouse connections and his relative inexperience.

R9

House United (MTO)
Enlighten
America’s Pastime entry

#7 ENLIGHTEN (8/5): Ran pretty well against better groups in each of his last two outings at Gulfstream Park, which were both won by horses that repeated at next asking. The drop in class here is notable, but at least it’s an optional claimer and not a straight claimer, so there are some signs this isn’t an attempt to dump the horse; #1 BRIT’S WIT (6-1): Cuts back to a mile, which hits me as his preferred trip. Toss the two and three-back efforts on non-turf surfaces, and his sheet looks much more impressive; #9 GEM MINT TEN (9/2): Comes back to what’s probably the right level after trailing in the Kingston here last month. It’s interesting that he’s reunited with Luis Saez, who rode him to a wire-to-wire score here last summer, and early speed is an asset on the inner.

R10

Mozambique (MTO)
Blame It On K J
Orie

#8 BLAME IT ON K J (15-1): Runs for a smaller outfit, but boasts a pedigree that can’t be ignored. He’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of a mare who won first time out, one that’s also a full sister to Daisy, who won a Grade 3 at two and threw multiple stakes-winning synthetic horse Botanical; #1 ORIE (5/2): Came running late to be second last time out and merits respect for Mike Maker and Flavien Prat. A repeat of that effort would give him a big shot, but I’m skeptical as to if there’s enough speed signed on to create another meltdown, which he may need; #6 VIKING WARRIOR (12-1): Adds Lasix and cuts back to one turn, both of which figure to be positive moves. His one-turn dirt races last year weren’t awful, he’s at least shown an ability to pass others, and Saez sees fit to hop aboard in a wide-open nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

My opening day is Wednesday, as I’m off to a late start for the best possible reason. I’ve just gotten married and returned from a wonderful honeymoon in Europe. We had a blast, and judging by the weather that hit upstate New York over the past week, I picked a decent time to stay away from the betting windows!

For those new to The Pink Sheet or my website: In this section, I start with a mythical $1,000 bankroll and look to build it up as much as I can between now and Labor Day. Last summer’s season was my best one ever, and we’ll look to build off of that success starting on Wednesday. Let’s get to it!

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the eighth, where I think there may be some value in the two outside horses. I’ll key #8 GILMORE and #9 MY NOBLE KNIGHT in $4 exactas that use those two, #4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE, and #5 ALTERNATE REALITY underneath. I’ll also box my top two in additional $3 exactas for good measure.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS: JULY 16TH, 2025

Best Bet: Irrelevant, Race 2
Longshot: Private Flight, Race 7

R1

China Beach
Evie’s Prince
Blue Creek

#8 CHINA BEACH (5/2): Comes into the Jonathan Kiser off of three straight impressive wins and has beaten several of his opponents in prior spots. It seems like he’s come to hand for the Daltons of late, and anything close to his last three may make him tough to top; #1 EVIE’S PRINCE (3-1): Ran very well when second against Grade 1 company here last month, and he won at this level and route a season ago. It sure seems like he does his best running at the Spa, and he’ll likely have some pace to chase in here, too; #9 BLUE CREEK (9/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and has yet to run a poor race over fences. He was stakes-placed on the flat back in 2023, so his current form isn’t a shock, and he may still have room to improve.

R2

Irrelevant
Beer Run
Snare

#5 IRRELEVANT (4-1): Has several things going for him ahead of his debut. His Penn National works merited a trip to Saratoga, and he sizzled a four-furlong bullet drill here last week. Add in that the experienced runners in here just haven’t shown much yet, and I’m very, very intrigued; #6 BEER RUN (5/2): May go off favored and isn’t totally illogical, but he’s starting to seem like a money-burner. He’s gotten bet in most of his starts, yet hasn’t found ways to get the job done against groups that weren’t that tough. Given the likely price, I’ll take a mild stance against him; #1 SNARE (12-1): Did show some improvement off the bench last time out, when he rallied to finish third downstate at a big price. His debut on turf in November wasn’t awful, and unlike several of these, at least there’s reason to think we may not have seen the best of him yet.

R3

Miles and Miles
Just Clarity
Aero Star

#1 MILES AND MILES (2-1): Takes a significant drop first off the claim for Brad Cox, who wins at a remarkable rate with similar stock. He was second behind a runaway winner at the $50,000 level last time, and he has enough early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #5 JUST CLARITY (8-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown an interest in passing others late. He probably needs to step forward to factor here, but the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus and the class drop also works in his favor; #3 AERO STAR (5/2): Has one way of going and will almost certainly make his presence known out of the gate. He may be fastest early, but Irad Ortiz Jr. must work out a trip to overcome legitimate stamina concerns (not to mention other horses potentially going early, too).

R4

Iron Dome
Undisputed
Shakeitforthebird

#5 IRON DOME (8/5): Gets one more chance from me stretching back out to two turns for Steve Asmussen and Jose Ortiz. I love the “sharp work two back, maintenance work last time” pattern he has, and this seems like the right level and distance; #2 UNDISPUTED (3-1): Tries two turns for the first time and is bred for such a route. His two-back effort at Aqueduct, where he ran a good second behind a next-out winner, is the best race he’s run to date, and his tactical speed is a plus; #8 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (12-1): Almost certainly needed a race last time out off of a long layoff and should be sharper here. These connections don’t ship from Finger Lakes to see the sights, and his debut here last summer was far from bad.

R5

Cristobal
Super Dave
Wamo

#10 CRISTOBAL (6-1): Has to navigate a trip from a tricky post in his unveiling, but he’s bred to be a solid turf horse and the two-back work hints that he has some talent. Prat hops on for a trainer that’s quietly done solid work with first-time starters, too; #3 SUPER DAVE (3-1): Is a logical morning line favorite in his debut for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best in the game with debuting runners. A few of his turf works are solid, and it wouldn’t be shocking if this one is ready to go right away; #7 WAMO (6-1): Hammered for $210,000 at auction last summer and debuts for Mike Maker. This barn’s firsters sometimes need a race, but this son of Yaupon is bred to be speedy and attracts Luis Saez after a string of solid drills.

R6

She’s Complicated (MTO)
Sassy Princess
Higher Force

#8 SASSY PRINCESS (8/5): Takes an absolutely massive class drop for aggressive connections in this spot, one I simply cannot ignore. She ran fourth against $80,000 claimers last time out, and now she’s in for less than half that price with Saez back aboard; #5 HIGHER FORCE (10-1): May finally get to run on turf after two straight events rained onto the main track. She’s out of a Langfuhr mare, which hints she’ll love the lawn, and this trainer/jockey combination is a formidable one; #1 TEMPLE CITY TABOO (5-1): Finished third against what was probably a better group last time out, but may encounter some opposition up front here. Blinkers coming off is an interesting move given the last-out tactics, and Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back.

R7

Duration
Private Flight
Mainstream

#1 DURATION (2-1): Is a “hold your nose” pick in a race with several high-priced auction purchases that haven’t panned out to this point. This one missed by a head last time out downstate, but he’s at least shown an ability to pass others late, and that may make the difference; #6 PRIVATE FLIGHT (15-1): Didn’t do much running in his debut last month, but this barn’s horses often need a race to get going. The switch to John Velazquez is an interesting one, and he’s got a few works that indicate he may have enough talent to outrun his odds at second asking; #3 MAINSTREAM (9/5): Disappointed last time out as a 3/5 favorite and comes back at this route again. On paper, he’s probably the horse to beat, but isn’t it concerning that he’s yielded the lead late in all three of his prior starts? Given his status as a likely favorite, I’ll try to beat him.

R8

Gilmore
My Noble Knight
Alternate Reality

#8 GILMORE (4-1): Sports a local win and has been in good form since an early-season claim by Joe Sharp. He’ll likely get plenty of pace to run at, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #9 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (6-1): Won two in a row at Oaklawn before a fourth-place finish last time out in a race where my top pick ran second. I don’t think he sat his desired trip that day, though. He may have been a bit too close to the front, and I think he’ll improve sitting back a bit more here; #5 ALTERNATE REALITY (7/2): Nearly got the job done on a significant class jump last time out, albeit in a race that got rained off the turf. This hits me as a tougher group, and the last-out surface was quirky, to say the least, but he’s another that should be moving the right way late.

R9

Kay Cup (MTO)
Trail of Gold
Mommy’s Turn

#3 TRAIL OF GOLD (9/2): Prevailed in a three-horse photo finish last time, and both of those opponents also show up here in the Suzie O’Cain. She’s won without Lasix before, which helps, and Irad sees fit to ride back when he likely had several options; #2 MOMMY’S TURN (7/2): Hasn’t run a bad race on turf yet and may still have room to improve for powerhouse connections. That last-out photo could have gone her way easily enough, and she’ll merit plenty of respect in this spot; #7 MARVELOUS MADISON (8-1): Won her debut here last summer before trying the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, after which she went to the sidelines for seven months. She may have needed her 2025 debut, and I’m expecting her to be much sharper in here second off the bench. If she is, she’s got a chance at a bit of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $87

We’ve got some housekeeping before we start the final bankroll section of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. First, Saturday’s action was cancelled when the Wonder Again was taken off the turf. Surface changes void all plays.

Secondly, when racing returns to Saratoga, you may notice I’ll be absent until mid-July. That’s for the best possible reason. I’m getting married later this month, and I’ll be in Europe on my honeymoon as the meet gets started. I’ll be back for the last 36 days of the meet, but as I’ve told several people, I can’t very well tell my wife, “we can’t go to the Sagrada Familia yet because I need to handicap the steeplechase race.”

(Side note: If anyone has some tips about Lisbon and/or Barcelona, fire away!)

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: See above.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where I’ll let most of the bankroll ride on one of my favorite horses in training. That’s #8 AMUNDSON, who I’ll key on top of $20 exactas that use #1 THANK YOU JON/#1A HONORARY DEGREE, #7 BREW PUB, and #9 LOST IN ROME underneath. In addition, I’ll have a cold $10 double starting in the fifth linking Amundson with my longshot of the day, #1 BRACIOLE. Finally, as a “saver” of sorts, I’ll use the three “underneath” horses in $5 doubles that end with Braciole.

TOTAL WAGERED: $85.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Amundson, Race 5
Longshot: Braciole, Race 6

R1

Angel Gift
Gorrono Ranch
Bella Bello Banker

#6 ANGEL GIFT (5/2): Hammered for $300,000 at auction and is in this creatively-written race because she’s a New York-bred. She’s kin to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Cave Rock, and the most recent workout downstate indicates she’s ready to go on debut; #3 GORRONO RANCH (3-1): Has an experience edge over most of this group and was a tough-luck second last time out after dueling from the gate. She once again figures to be prominent early, and it’s possible today is graduation day; #5 BELLA BELLO BANKER (10-1): Goes out for a barn whose horses often need a race or two to get going, but she sold for $105,000 earlier this year and has a few drills that indicate she may have some talent.

R2

Resilience
Digital Ops
Society Man

#5 RESILIENCE (5/2): Almost certainly needed his return race last time out after not running for the prior 11 months. He tried Grade 1 company twice a season ago, and if he gets back to the form that carried him to a win in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, he’ll be tough in here; #1 DIGITAL OPS (9/5): Hasn’t run since mid-January, when he was a good second behind a next-out winner at Gulfstream. His best race makes him a player, but he’s no standout on speed figures and his likely price hits me as an underlay, so I’ll take a mild stand against him; #6 SOCIETY MAN (3-1): Chased my top pick when second in the Wood and won a graded race of his own in last year’s Grade 3 Matt Winn. I’m drawing a line through his last-out clunker, and there should be some pace in here to set up for his late kick

R3

Diblasi
Dark Assault
Just Moises

#5 DIBLASI (2-1): Was second from start to finish behind impressive barn buddy Ohoopee in his debut at Keeneland. That May 29th work jumps off the page, and a logical move forward at second asking could leave his foes with lots to do; #2 DARK ASSAULT (4-1): Has been working consistently ahead of his unveiling for Shug McGaughey and has a strong win-early pedigree. This son of Violence is out of a mare who was stakes-placed as a 2-year-old, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride; #4 JUST MOISES (4-1): Sold for $350,000 earlier this year and has a very impressive pedigree page. He’s kin to stakes winner Varatti, and his bottom line trades back to third dam La Gueriere, who was very, very productive. Everything about him, though, says he probably wants longer than this distance.

R4

Light the Way (MTO)
Enlighten
Brown entry

#6 ENLIGHTEN (7/2): Has plenty of tactical speed, which is an asset at this route of ground on the inner turf. The winners of each of his last two races came back to repeat, and the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team always merits respect; BROWN ENTRY (9/5): Both #2 UNCATALYZED and #2B MOVE TO GOLD could win, but I’ve got my doubts. The former sat an ideal trip las time, while the latter hasn’t run in nearly a year (and the barn’s first-call rider goes to the other one). At their likely price, I’ll try to beat them; #5 SUMMER IN ADRIANE (8-1): Came from way back to top allowance foes at Keeneland last time out, and he did so at a monster price. That running style doesn’t often lend itself to success on the inner, but it’s also possible Mike Maker has him on the right track midway through his 4-year-old season.

R5

Amundson
Lost in Rome
Brew Pub

#8 AMUNDSON (5/2): Has been a stalwart of the NYRA circuit and doesn’t appear to have lost a step as a 9-year-old. His last-out win at Aqueduct was very impressive, he loves Saratoga, and his chances wouldn’t suffer with any moisture left in the ground; #9 LOST IN ROME (9/2): Goes first off the claim for a barn that does very well with new acquisitions. He’s searching for his first win in quite some time, but his last-out third at Aqueduct came in a swiftly-run race for the level and he’s run well here before; #7 BREW PUB (10-1): Chased my top pick two back and hasn’t won in a while, but he does relish wet tracks, with three wins and 10 in-the-money finishes in 16 such outings. He’s also shown an ability to rate a bit, which could help him rally for a piece of it.

R6

Braciole
Caldo Candy
My Man Matty

#1 BRACIOLE (12-1): Seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed, and I simply cannot ignore that. He goes second off the bench here, and he capitalized on a similar situation two back at Aqueduct to get the job done; #2 CALDO CANDY (2-1): Is one of many who wants to go early, and the slight cutback in distance should help him. He was second in a similar spot two back, and the addition of Joel Rosario is noteworthy; #3 MY MAN MATTY (5-1): Hasn’t run since December of 2023, but he’s been working well and has flashed plenty of talent in the past. Bruce Levine knows how to bring horses back off the bench, and that May 2nd workout hints that he’s been ready for a while.

R7

Cloe
Saturday Flirt
Love Cervere

#8 CLOE (9/2): Adds blinkers for the Grade 3 Soaring Softly and exits a third-place finish at that level going down the hill at Santa Anita. Her two-back win in a stakes race at Gulfstream was very sharp, and so are the recent workouts. She hits me as the one they’ll have to catch; #3 SATURDAY FLIRT (5-1): Is 2-for-2 in the U.S. following a come-from-behind win in her 2025 debut at Keeneland. Her lone misfire came at Royal Ascot, which I can completely forgive, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #1 LOVE CERVERE (7/2): Cut back to one turn to take a stakes race downstate last month beneath Joel Rosario, who climbs back aboard for this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if she went off lower than her morning line price, and she’s logical in a wide-open event.

R8

Purpose (MTO)
Tongue Twister
Summer Whirl

#7 TONGUE TWISTER (3-1): Ran a solid second when returning to New York-bred competition downstate and makes a lot of sense here. She’s a consistent sort hat generally runs the same race every time, and she’s run well here twice in the past; #8 SUMMER WHIRL (7/2): Probably needed her last-out effort, which was her first try since October. She tried stakes competition here last summer and wasn’t embarrassed when fourth of eight, so it would be far from surprising to see her take a step forward and contend here; #11 GALLEY HEAD (15-1): Merits a look in here at a big price after topping open company on the synthetic at Gulfstream. She ran well twice on turf before that, too, and she hasn’t run against New York-breds in quite some time.

R9

Long Neck Paula
Beauty Reigns
Mila Candy

#4 LONG NECK PAULA (4-1): Has yet to run poorly on dirt and comes in off of a second-place finish in the Palisades at Keeneland. She was third in last year’s Schuylerville, and she could sit an ideal stalk-and-pounce trip in the Jersey Girl; #2 BEAUTY REIGNS (9/5): Was an impressive winner at Churchill Downs last time and comes back to the stakes ranks here. Going one turn is her game, but do note that she’ll have to run without Lasix in this spot, and that could downgrade her just a bit; #1 MILA CANDY (8-1): Takes a big step up here, but she broke her maiden last time out in a fast race for the level (and previously ran well to be second in her unveiling). The rail draw isn’t ideal, but she seems like a filly with potential to move forward further at a bit of a price.

R10

Ball Don’t Lie
I’m Wide Awake
Consider It Done

#7 BALL DON’T LIE (3-1): Probably had too much to do last time, when he broke poorly from the rail and spotted the field plenty of ground. He still salvaged third that day, and if he can get past his gate issues and break cleanly with a better draw, he could move forward in a big way; #3 I’M WIDE AWAKE (2-1): Makes his first start for Norm Casse here and sure looks like he main speed. He wintered at Oaklawn, and he ran very well on a number of occasions. If speed is holding Sunday, he could be a major threat to wire them; #4 CONSIDER IT DONE (8-1): Is 2-for-2 since being claimed by Linda Rice and moves up the class ladder for this one. First-call rider Jose Lezcano stays aboard, and while he has tactical speed, it helps that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well.

R11

Executive Order (MTO)
Creditworthy
Twisted Filigree

#1 CREDITWORTHY (2-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in three starts to date and returns to the scene of his maiden-breaking score last summer. His comeback race at Keeneland saw him run a close-up third against what was probably a better group, and he’s a logical favorite; #9 TWISTED FILIGREE (8-1): Hasn’t run since November but merits a long look in here. He was second in a pair of local turf sprints over the summer, and his last outing saw him run the talented Yarrow to a head at Aqueduct; #12 TAP TO MISCHIEF (5-1): Won his debut in July and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since. However, he’s been working well for quite a while and has some strong drills on his sheet. Add in the ultimate equipment change as a first-time gelding, and it’s possible he’s set to be a major player.

R12

Think Big
Ag Bullet
Our Shot

#2 THINK BIG (6/5): Has won three in a row at three different tracks and was an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Turf Sprint on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He likes turf courses with some give, and that’s the route he figures to get in the Grade 1 Jaipur (which features several horses he’s beaten this season); #9 AG BULLET (7/2): Had a terrible trip in the Grade 3 Unbridled Sidney, when she was guided to the inside and never got through. The switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one, and perhaps she needed that race given it was her first try since December; #3 OUR SHOT (8-1): Has hit the board in all four of his races at Saratoga. He’s a bit pace-dependent, but we know he likes this route of ground, and it does seem like there’s plenty of zip around him in the starting gate.

R13

Far Bridge
Carson’s Run
Spirit of St Louis

#9 FAR BRIDGE (3-1): Ran third in the Grade 1 Manhattan a year ago against what hits me as a much better group, and he’s back for another crack at the apple here. He’s 2-for-2 this season, and unlike last year, the Europeans stayed home for the 2025 renewal of the traditional Belmont lead-in; #4 CARSON’S RUN (12-1): Merits a long look at a price in his second start off the bench. He was second in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy, a race he may have needed. He returns to a turf course he loves, he adds a bit of distance, and he may also get his desired conditions given some rain in the forecast; #6 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (5/2): Rose up from the New York-bred ranks to become one of the top turf horses in the country. He won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last time out, but that was an oddly-run race, and I’m not sure how much stock to put into it.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $132

Good Cheer figures to be one of the shortest-priced favorites of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival when she goes postward in Friday’s Grade 1 Acorn. She’s 7-for-7, exits a professional score in the Kentucky Oaks, and looks every bit like the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

The scary thing is, there’s a slight chance she’s not even the best 3-year-old filly in her barn. Immersive, last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Filly after a campaign that included three Grade 1 wins, has returned to the work tab at Churchill Downs. She’s also owned by Godolphin and trained by Brad Cox, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in some big spots down the road next to her ultra-talented stablemate.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Major Dude had every chance in the Poker and gave me a thrill, but he couldn’t get to Donegal Momentum. I dropped $38.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll focus on the seventh race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #7 LOUISE PROCTER, and she’ll be the key to a big day. In addition to a $30 win bet on her, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her, both starting in the sixth with #3 WAYS AND MEANS and ending in the eighth with #1 ASBURY PARK/#1A NOBLE CONFESSOR and #9 SOLUTIONS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Louise Procter, Race 7
Longshot: Solutions, Race 8

R1

Sassy Shenanigans
Bellacose
Geopolitics

#4 SASSY SHENANIGANS (5-1): Didn’t seem like she sat her desired trip last time, when she was a one-paced third after being up close out of the gate. She hits me as more of a closer, and that could benefit her in a race with what seems like a lot of early speed signed on; #10 BELLACOSE (6-1): Romped in her debut here last summer before struggling in a pair of stakes races. We haven’t seen her since November, but she’s been working steadily ahead of her first start for Wesley Ward and returns with Lasix; #5 GEOPOLITICS (3-1): Burned quite a bit of money last year, losing as an odds-on favorite four different times. She’s been off since November, but of the other speed types, she looks the fastest early and the most likely to hang on for a share.

R2

Repole entry
Resurge
Surprise

REPOLE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 NUMBERED and #1A ENDORSE could win this. The former has a right to improve after running third in the slop in her unveiling last month, while the latter sports a series of strong local drills and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #11 RESURGE (4-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and is bred to be any kind. Dam Close Hatches was a heck of a racehorse, and she’s a top-class broodmare that’s thrown stakes horses Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down, among others; #6 SURPRISE (6-1): Ran fifth in her debut at Keeneland, but that wasn’t an easy spot. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one has bounced back with a couple of workouts that indicate she got plenty out of her initial start.

R3

Laser Sharp (MTO)
Works for Me
Run Carson

#3 WORKS FOR ME (8/5): Fell just short in his 2025 debut, where he lost a brutal head bob as an odds-on favorite. He sprang a 23-1 upset in a stakes race late last year, Flavien Prat returns to ride, and I think he’s a very legitimate favorite; #4 RUN CARSON (6-1): Made up a lot of ground to finish third in his return to the races at Keeneland after a slow start. He’s run well here several times in the past, and he’s a consistent sort who generally runs the same race every time; #7 REFUEL (10-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price in his second start off of a long, long break. He set a very fast pace in his return to the races before fading for fourth, and the presence of top gate rider Luis Saez indicates he’ll be prominent early once again.

R4

Vehemente
Nolita
Army Gal

#7 VEHEMENTE (3-1): Is doing the best running of her career and will look to record her third straight win in this spot. Kendrick Carmouche is 2-for-2 aboard this filly, and I like that she’s got plenty of tactical speed but doesn’t absolutely need the lead in order to run well; #1 NOLITA (8-1): Is a stone closer in a race with what seems like plenty of early speed elsewhere. She was last seen running second behind Dolomie at Aqueduct, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #5 ARMY GAL (5/2): Had every chance last time out but couldn’t get by the winner after what seemed like an ideal stalking trip. Perhaps this group is a bit weaker, but the stretchout to seven furlongs is an unknown and she’ll likely be a pretty short price (which would hit me as an underlay).

R5

Dreamlike
Malarchuk
Costa Terra

#7 DREAMLIKE (9/2): Has run once since last June, and that was a clunker over the synthetic at Gulfstream. However, he has prior dirt races that would crush this field, including a third-place finish behind Lord Miles in the 2023 Wood Memorial (if you know me, you had to know that reference was coming); #2 MALARCHUK (4-1): Adds blinkers after a no-excuses second at 3/5 in an off-the-turf race downstate. He stretches back out to two turns for this one, and given his running lines, it feels like blinkers should absolutely move him forward; #4 COSTA TERRA (20-1): Merits a look underneath at a big price. He’s hit the board in six of seven Saratoga starts, he has a win at this distance, and Umberto Rispoli sees fit to take the mount. This is a class jump from his last few efforts, but he has 2024 races that would give him a puncher’s chance in here.

R6

Ways and Means
Scylla
Miss Justify

#3 WAYS AND MEANS (6/5): Returned from a six-month break to run third in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. That Churchill Downs track was very tiring, and a few different horses paid for not having a recent race. I’m banking on a significant step forward in the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses, especially since she won the Grade 1 Test at this route last summer; #2 SCYLLA (5/2): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, and she was another coming in off of a long break. I think there’s a chance she wants longer than this distance, but she was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint last year and could also move forward; #6 MISS JUSTIFY (12-1): Takes a jump up in class but has won four of her last five starts. The lone defeat came in last summer’s Grade 1 Alabama going much longer, so I have no problem tossing that race. A step forward from her optional claiming prep downstate could get her a check at a nice price.

R7

Louise Procter
Mystifying
Wrigleyville

#7 LOUISE PROCTER (4-1): Makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always an appealing angle. Her prior connections took some big shots after a 3-for-3 start, including a Group 1 at Longchamp last spring, and she’s been working steadily for this outfit since shipping in; #3 MYSTIFYING (2-1): Was beaten a neck at Keeneland in her first start of the season and has a right to improve off of that effort. She was a close-up second behind a very nice horse on closing day here last summer, and she figures to be prominent early (never a bad trip on the inner turf); #10 WRIGLEYVILLE (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but goes to the barn of respected horseman Tom Proctor and may have needed her seasonal debut at Gulfstream going shorter. She stretches back out to two turns, which is probably her desired trip.

R8

St. Elias entry
Solutions
Tom Collins

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (6/5): #1 ASBURY PARK drew into the body of the field and was a 9/5 favorite in his lone start to date, where he ran a fast-closing fifth. He’ll get Lasix for the first time, while #1A NOBLE CONFESSOR looks to draw in off the AE list. Either can win, which makes the entry impossible to ignore; #9 SOLUTIONS (12-1): Showed speed in his debut on dirt, but his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn. He’s kin to stakes-placed turfer Killjoy, and dam Sally Dangles (by top turf influence More Than Ready) is a half to graded stakes winner Consumer Credit, who did his best work on the grass; #6 TOM COLLINS (6-1): Led turning for home before fading to finish fifth in a tough spot for the level on the Derby Day undercard. His two-back effort at Tampa wasn’t bad, and he was a close-up third at this route late last summer behind the well-meant Agate Road.

R9

Raging Sea
Randomized
Leslie’s Rose

#4 RAGING SEA (5/2): Sprang a mild upset in the Grade 1 La Troienne, where she defeated reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. She did get an ideal trip that day, but it was also her first race in six months and she’s been working very, very well ahead of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. A step forward would make her a real handful; #7 RANDOMIZED (9/2): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and looks like this race’s main speed. She was third behind Raging Sea last time out, and she’s 3-for-5 at Saratoga, including a win in this race last year over champion Idiomatic; #3 LESLIE’S ROSE (7/2): May have needed her run in the Grade 3 Vagrancy, and that race was much shorter than her ideal two-turn trip. That’s what she gets here, and a return to her Grade 1-winning form from early-2024 would give her a chance in this loaded event.

R10

Grand Sonata
Limited Liability
Flatten the Curve

#8 GRAND SONATA (6-1): Tries the grueling two-mile trip for the first time in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup, but he’s got a ton of back class. He’s a Grade 2 winner who has faced some of the top turf horses in training, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hopping aboard is a big, big plus; #3 LIMITED LIABILITY (2-1): Was third in this race a season ago and looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in marathon turf races. Frankie Dettori knows him well, and his best race could win this, but he’s also won just once since May of 2023, and that makes him hard to trust at a short price; #1 FLATTEN THE CURVE (3-1): Comes over from Europe for his event and has won four in a row, including a Group 2 event in Germany. German racing isn’t quite the caliber of England or France, but that win came at this distance and his regular rider sees fit to fly in.

R11

Good Cheer
Bless the Broken
Shred the Gnar

#2 GOOD CHEER (1/2): May be the shortest-priced favorite of the day, and for good reason. She’s a perfect 7-for-7, cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago, and has been working well since. If she puts forth her usual effort in the Grade 1 Acorn, it’d be tough to imagine her getting beaten; #5 BLESS THE BROKEN (10-1): Came from way back to finish third in the Oaks at a price, and she may once again get a solid setup here. There’s plenty of early speed in this group, and that could allow her to rally for a big piece of this one; #4 SHRED THE GNAR (3-1): May be the “wise guy” horse in here after two runaway wins, but I have some doubts. She’s never won from off the pace, she’ll run without Lasix for the first time, and regular rider Luis Saez hops off to ride the favorite. That’s a lot to swallow.

R12

She Feels Pretty
Forever After All
Gimme a Nother

#8 SHE FEELS PRETTY (3/5): Returned to the races with a flourish in the Grade 3 Modesty, where she never once looked like a loser. She’s now 3-for-3 since adding blinkers, she’s proven she can handle this distance, and she should get an ideal trip in the Grade 1 New York; #1 FOREVER AFTER ALL (10-1): Ran a monster race in the Grade 3 Bewitch, which she won by nine lengths while geared down late. This is a significant class jump, to be sure, but she may simply be in career-best form (while in foal!), and I think she may offer value in the exotics behind a short-priced favorite; #3 GIMME A NOTHER (7/2): Chased my top pick last time out and has run well in two U.S. tries since shipping in from South Africa. She went 7-for-7 in her homeland and has literally never run a bad race. The question is, is more distance what she wants?

R13

Choisya
Excellent Truth
A Lilac Rolla

#9 CHOISYA (4-1): Benefited from a controversial “no change” ruling to win the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in her U.S. debut. She probably got lucky to stay up, but at the same time, there’s a chance she still would’ve won even without shifting out. She topped the classy Cinderella’s Dream on the square two back, and she could add another Grade 1 win in the Just A Game; #8 EXCELLENT TRUTH (5/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and looks for some revenge here. That was her first try since July, and she could continue what looks to be a banner day in the making for trainer Chad Brown; #7 A LILAC ROLLA (6-1): Makes her U.S. debut off a long break, but her early-2024 races were very sharp. She was second in the Group 1 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh before running third behind world-class mare Porta Fortuna at Newmarket, and she’s got a big chance if she’s ready to run.

R14

Broman entry
Poppy’s Ticket
Counter Move

BROMAN ENTRY (2-1): #1 KEEPINITREAL has a big chance if he’s ready to run, but I prefer #1A IRON DOME, who has a lot to like if he draws in off the AE list. He’s been running in open races at Oaklawn, and this would be his first try against New York-breds. The switch from Erik Asmussen to Jose Ortiz is a big one, too; #14 POPPY’S TICKET (8-1): Merits a long look at a bit of a price in his second career start. He was stuck inside after not making the lead, but showed some poise in rallying for third. He gets a better post here, comes in off of a sharp work downstate, and could have lots of room to improve with experience; #12 COUNTER MOVE (3-1): Looks like the main speed in here, which is a plus, but he’s flopped twice in a row as an odds-on favorite without any apparent excuses. The cutback to seven furlongs may help him a bit, but there are still legitimate stamina concerns that are tough to stomach (especially at a short price).