horse

2017 Eclipse Awards: My Ballot, Explanations, and Abstentions

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I was accepted into the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters a few months ago, and with that came my first-ever Eclipse Awards ballot. I’m sure there are some people out there who are shaking their heads that I have a vote (I can think of at least two), but the meaning of this process isn’t lost on me. It’s an honor to be able to cast a vote for horse racing’s most prestigious awards, and this post will serve as an explanation for how I voted.

I’ve broken the awards down into several categories, and horses and humans that earned second and third-place votes will be in parentheses after my chosen winner. Like every year, there were some divisions that were easier than others, and there were a few where I could completely understand differing viewpoints. As you’ll see, there were two divisions where I simply could not bring myself to cast a vote, and I’ll discuss why when we get there.

On with the ballot!

THE LOCKS

Horse of the Year: Gun Runner (World Approval, Forever Unbridled)

Three-Year-Old Filly: Abel Tasman (Unique Bella, Paradise Woods)

Older Dirt Male: Gun Runner (Arrogate, Roy H)

Older Dirt Female: Forever Unbridled (Stellar Wind, Songbird)

Male Sprinter: Roy H (El Deal, Drefong)

Male Turf Horse: World Approval (Talismanic, Beach Patrol)

Apprentice Jockey: Evin Roman (Hector Diaz, Katie Clawson)

Gun Runner assured himself multiple trophies when he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic to cap off a stellar campaign. Had Arrogate not turned in one of the most impressive performances in recent horse racing history in the Dubai World Cup, he’d have managed one of the most dominant campaigns by an older horse in the past 20 years.

I was probably more impressed with Roy H’s campaign than some of my fellow voters. Had Drefong not run erratically after throwing Mike Smith in the Bing Crosby, the eventual Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner probably wins that race, which would have given him an undefeated season with three Grade 1 victories (plus a Grade 2 score). I even debated putting him second above Arrogate in the Older Dirt Male category, but ultimately decided against it.

THE TWO-YEAR-OLDS

Two-Year-Old Male: Good Magic (Bolt d’Oro, Sporting Chance)

Two-Year-Old Female: Rushing Fall (Caledonia Road, Moonshine Memories)

Both of these are up for some debate. I spent considerable time mulling over my 2-year-old male vote, but ultimately went with the impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I understand Bolt d’Oro raced very wide most of the way, but even if he’d been closer to the rail, my opinion is that Good Magic was probably still best that day. I also wanted to give an honorable mention to Sporting Chance, the Grade 1 Hopeful winner that has not run since. That proved to be a very live race, and he won despite ducking out badly late. Hopefully, we get to see him step forward in 2018.

I felt much more comfortable with my 2-year-old female vote. Caledonia Road was impressive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but I honestly believe this crop of dirt fillies was not that special. Rushing Fall showcased a turn of foot we don’t often see, and there’s a real chance the field she beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf was better than the one Caledonia Road dispatched.

PICK YOUR POISON

Three-Year-Old Male: West Coast (Always Dreaming, Oscar Performance)

I’m about to make a pretty unpopular statement. Had West Coast not run a decent third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I would have likely abstained from this category. Once Oscar Performance faltered in two races against older horses late in the year, this came down to West Coast and Always Dreaming. The former won the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby emphatically, but skipped the Triple Crown races. The latter was brilliant at his best when winning the Florida and Kentucky Derbies, but head-scratchingly awful at his worst when nowhere in the Preakness and Travers.

Thankfully, West Coast finished in the same zip code as your likely Horse of the Year. In doing so, he did enough for me to be able to feel OK about casting my vote for him. Having said that, I’m a believer that there are some years, and some categories, where no horse is good enough to deserve an Eclipse Award. Keep this in mind later.

THE SENTIMENTAL CHOICE (BUT ALSO THE RIGHT ONE)

Female Turf Horse: Lady Eli (Wuheida, Off Limits)

There’ll be one heck of a Hall of Fame debate coming up in a few years with regard to Lady Eli. She won big races at ages two, three, four, and five, and not only survived laminitis, but came back to perform at racing’s highest level. This year, she won Grade 1 races on both coasts, which is not an easy thing to do.

This won’t be a unanimous vote. Lady Eli misfired badly in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, a race in which she suffered an injury. Having said that, the winner of that race, Wuheida, raced just once in North America, and there isn’t nearly enough in the way of qualified other contenders for this award. To demonstrate that, Off Limits got my third-place vote despite having just one Grade 1 victory, which came in the Matriarch late in the year at Del Mar.

Even with the untimely dud, it’s tough to see any horse but Lady Eli winning this award. No other horse did enough to win it, and her story certainly doesn’t hurt. Should her story matter when it comes to Eclipse Awards and Hall of Fame consideration? That’s a question for another column.

TWO HUMAN AWARDS

Breeder: Clearsky (Besilu, WinStar)

Jockey: Jose Ortiz (Mike Smith, Irad Ortiz, Jr.)

Clearsky Farms bred Eclipse finalists Arrogate and Abel Tasman, as well as Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Untamed Domain. That’s a heck of a resume right there, especially for a farm that’s fairly small in size, and I couldn’t look past it.

I went with Jose Ortiz over Mike Smith for a few reasons. Ortiz rode day-in and day-out for the entire year and established a consistent body of work few could match. Mike Smith had a phenomenal year, and he’s established a judicious strategy of picking mounts that extends his career deep into his 50’s. However, that judicious strategy works against him when compared to someone who takes very few days off. That being said, I wouldn’t be opposed to him passing along his map to the fountain of youth.

BOY, WAS I WRONG

Owner: Klaravich/Lawrence (Sol Kumin, Juddmonte)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Chad Brown, Bob Baffert)

My top pick for this year’s best owner didn’t even make the list of finalists, and neither did my chosen runner-up (more on him in the next paragraph). The finalists are Juddmonte, Godolphin, and Winchell/Three Chimneys, and more than any other category, this one got some scrutiny on Twitter when the finalists were announced.

One note on Kumin: We need new owners who have his apparent passion for the sport. He’s bought in on a lot of horses, and many have had success at the highest level. However, I couldn’t, in good conscience, vote him as the top owner in the country this year. It doesn’t sit well with me that we don’t exactly know how much of each horse he owns. Partnerships have their merits, sure, but if the situation is this murky, how can one partner be deemed more valuable than others who may be involved?

Pletcher wasn’t even a finalist. I understand why, but here’s my thinking. Pletcher won trainer’s titles at Gulfstream and Saratoga, and he also won two-thirds of the Triple Crown with Always Dreaming and Tapwrit. It hurts that his barn went fairly cold to end the year, but I thought what he did in the early part of the year made up for it.

BOY, YOU’LL THINK I’M WRONG

Steeplechase Horse: ABSTAIN

Like many of my fellow voters, I simply didn’t see enough jump races to be able to have an informed opinion. Rather than guess, I’ll leave this one to the experts.

Female Sprinter: ABSTAIN

(ducking the tomatoes and objects you’re throwing at me)

Time to explain the most controversial part of my ballot. I am not against honoring the top female sprinter in the country. However, I’m far from convinced we had a single top-tier runner in that division. Let’s run through the list, shall we?

Had the year ended in mid-August, Paulassilverlining would have been a solid choice. However, she misfired in both the Ballerina and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. A single in-the-money finish in either event probably would have made her the recipient of my vote, but I simply couldn’t vote for her given when the switch flipped and how big the difference in form was.

Similar can be said for Lady Aurelia. I know most of her campaign came outside the United States. Had she run well in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint against males, though, it would have been difficult to vote against her. Given how much Paulassilverlining tailed off, she probably didn’t even have to win. However, for the first time in her career, she ran a clunker, and given her lack of American-based success, I couldn’t vote for her.

Unique Bella? She won the Grade 1 La Brea, but her only victory against older competition came in a Grade 3, she spent the early part of the year routing, and her dud on Breeders’ Cup day is a big strike against her. Bar of Gold? She did nothing besides a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, which proved to be a very oddly-run race. Finley’sluckycharm? Never won a Grade 1. American Gal? Didn’t run after the Test (which was a shame, because I think she may have secretly been the best 3-year-old filly in the country this year when healthy).

Please tell me, with a straight face, why I should have felt confident casting a vote for any of these horses. Simply put, I didn’t think any of the runners I mentioned put together a campaign from start to finish that merited an Eclipse Award in this category. I can’t praise Paulassilverlining’s early success without mentioning her late-season struggles. I can’t give Lady Aurelia a North American-based award when most of her success came in Europe. I can’t say Unique Bella is an elite sprinter when her lone sprints against older horses were an OK Grade 3 win and a dud in the division’s biggest race, and no other horse did enough to even merit consideration. Add all of this up, and you get an abstention from yours truly.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita (1/6/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve come to the first Saturday of the new year, and with it come two intriguing programs at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has an assortment of ungraded stakes races on the docket, while Santa Anita will host two graded events, one of which features Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers. I’ve got two multi-race tickets at each track, so let’s get going!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10,11
R2: 2,3,6
R3: 3,5
R4: 3,5
R5: 4,7,8

72 Bets, $36

If you believe in the axiom, “Pace makes the race,” the outside two horses look like the ones to beat in the Saturday opener. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this race appears to set up for closers #10 FAN BASE and #11 LITTLE BALTAR. The outside posts give me some pause, but so many horses inside of them need the lead, and I think those runners will be backing up late.

I thought the second race was very interesting. I don’t like #7 ROYAL HOLIDAY or #8 ALIEN INVASION, both of whom may not want two turns. My top pick is #2 FLYING LIBERTY, who exits a minor stakes race and won at this route three back. I’ll also use #6 COMETIN, who likes this turf course, and I’m also throwing in #3 WICKED BOY, on the off chance he replicates his two-back effort beneath new jockey Jose Ortiz.

The third is the Limehouse Stakes, and I’m intrigued by #3 PIVEN, who ships in from Woodbine. Usually, that’s not an angle I like, but he’s been working very well lately, and if he runs to those drills, he’ll be very tough. I’m also using #5 EMPIRE POWER, who may be the controlling early speed in this short field.

I’m also two-deep in the fourth, where I’ll use a pair of class-droppers. #3 WHAT POWER last ran for a $35,000 tag and goes out for the red-hot Marcus Vitali barn, while #5 SPORTSCASTER has a number of solid races over this turf course and won in his last start at this level.

The payoff leg is the Glitter Woman Stakes, and I’m three-deep in what turned out to be a fascinating field. #4 CICATRIX and #7 ELEVENSES both romped in their debuts for trainers whose first-time starters aren’t always fully cranked, so they definitely merit consideration. I’m also using #8 FOXTROT SALLY, who may have simply not wanted two turns last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. Javier Castellano’s presence is a positive, and we may get a bit of a price given the recent dud.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 5,6,10
R9: 8
R10: 3,6
R11: ALL

72 Bets, $36

With 42 entrants across four races, there’s plenty of room for this to pay pretty well, even if shorter-priced horses find the winner’s circle. The first three legs may be formful, but if we get to the last leg, we’ll hit, and hopefully for a nice chunk of change.

The eighth is a seven-furlong maiden race for 3-year-olds, and we may see some of these horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby. #6 LIFE’S A PARLAY debuts for Todd Pletcher, and this $725,000 auction purchase is bred to be a good one. With that in mind, though, some of the workouts are pretty slow, so I want a bit more coverage than just him. #5 COVE BLUE has shown ample early speed and should relish the cutback in distance, while #10 ORBED probably needed his debut and should improve at second asking, especially with the added furlong.

I’m excited for the ninth, as there’s a 9/2 shot I really like. #8 ANDINA DEL SUR rallied impressively in her debut, and that race has proven to be a live one given the next-out winners it has produced. Every part of her pedigree says she wants to go two turns, and there should be plenty of early speed in here to set up for the kick she showed in her unveiling. I’d be very happy if we got the morning line price.

Like most people, I think the 10th race, the Mucho Macho Man, is a two-horse race. #3 DAK ATTACK was one of the most impressive 2-year-olds in the country last summer before going to the sidelines, and #6 MASK was a sharp first-out winner for Chad Brown. I’d be pretty surprised if the winner wasn’t one of those two runners.

If we get through those three legs, we’re assured to hit this wager. I needed to buy the Saturday finale because I didn’t have a clue, and judging by the morning line odds, I’m not alone. The 7/2 favorite is a horse that has been beaten a total of 33 1/4 lengths in two lifetime starts. The 4-1 second choice trailed in his debut and was beaten more than 24 lengths at odds of 32-1. If you’ve got conviction, good for you. I certainly don’t, and if we get to this point, I’ll be rooting for pari-mutuel chaos.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: ALL
R3: 3,7,8,10
R4: 1,5,12
R5: 6

96 Bets, $48

My initial feeling is that the Pick Five sequence that kicks off with the Saturday opener could wind up a bit chalky. The bookends feature popular singles, and hopefully, we can get a price or two home in the middle legs.

At first, I wanted to play against #5 MIDNIGHT SWINGER in the first. She’s dropping in class after losing her last eight races. However, the more I looked at this race, the more I disliked her opponents. #8 ROAD TEST was beaten by that one two back, #2 TIZ ADORE is 1-for-12 and has had many chances to break through, and #9 QUINN MURPHY hasn’t won since being claimed this past summer. It’s a “hold your nose” single, but that’s where I’m going.

Singling twice allows me to spread elsewhere, and I need to hit the “ALL” button in the second race. This is a bottom-level claiming event featuring horses that seem to take turns beating one another. I can’t back any of these horses with conviction, so I’ll use all eight and hope for a price.

I’m also going pretty deep in the third. This is a maiden claimer, and I can’t get too excited about any of these, either. #8 PSYCHEDELICAT may go off favored, and his Beyer Speed Figures are such that I need to use him, but he’s 0-for-12 and has never so much as run second. Of the four I used, I most prefer #7 CONFIRMED, who just missed when dropping down to this level last time out, and #10 PATH OF EXILE, who drops down in class and is eligible to improve second off the layoff for trainer Michael McCarthy.

If #12 RANCOR had gotten a better post, she may have merited a single. She did everything but win in her turf debut at Del Mar, when she was a length behind next-out stakes winner Ippodamia’s Girl. A repeat of that race would make her tough, but she’s parked way outside, so I need to use two others. #1 PAVED was third that day, and #5 EVER SO TRUE exits the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante, where she was beaten just three lengths.

The fifth is the Grade 3 Sham for 3-year-olds, and it features one of the top Kentucky Derby prospects on the west coast. That’s #6 MCKINZIE, who was put up in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. He’s worked very well since then, and if he runs his usual race, he’s going to be incredibly tough to beat.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,6,7,11
R7: 6,7,8,9
R8: 1
R9: 4,6,7,10,12

80 Bets, $40

I thought the Pick Five was pretty chalky. The late Pick Four? Not so much. I think this has the potential to pay very well, and my ticket spreads in three legs while singling a 6-1 shot in the other one.

We start off the sequence with a maiden claimer, and I’m not overly impressed by many of these runners. Of the four I used, the two I like most are #5 IMPECUNIOUS, who ships down from Golden Gate, and #11 KARMIC AFFINITY, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post.

The seventh is the Grade 2 San Gabriel, and while the cast of characters may be a bit underwhelming, the evenly-matched nature of it makes for a fun betting race. I’m four-deep, and one horse I used figures to be a big price. #9 FREE ROSE ran just once in 2017, but he’s done very little wrong over the course of his career. That one race was a solid fourth in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, where he finished just two lengths behind Bal a Bali. If he’s right, I think he’s got a big shot.

My single comes in the third leg, a seven-furlong claiming event. #1 KISS MY LULU seems like the race’s main speed, and inside speed has been very good in these extended sprints so far this meet. I’m tossing the two recent races over Golden Gate’s synthetic surface, as she’s much better on conventional dirt. If she breaks well, she could get an ideal setup, and because of that, I really like her.

If we’re alive going into the finale, we’ll be five-deep. #10 INSTANT REFLEX isn’t a bad favorite, but she’s never run down the hill before, and that’s a major concern. I’ll use her, but I need coverage elsewhere. The longshot that has to be on my ticket is #7 PHANTOM PROTON, who was beaten less than four lengths in a fast race at this route two back before running into the talented Painting Corners last time out at Del Mar. There’s plenty of speed to set up for her late kick, and the presence of top downhill rider Corey Nakatani is a huge plus.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream, Santa Anita (12/30/17), PLUS a Special Message of Thanks

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Before we dive in to the analysis of Saturday’s cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, I want to take a moment in my final post of 2017 to say thank you.

I started this website nine months ago, and I started it for several reasons. Obviously, writing and handicapping are two of my biggest passions, and this gave me an outlet for that, but there were other factors at play as well. Admittedly, a large part of starting this website was in response to being told I wasn’t good enough to do certain things, and as anyone who knows me can attest, the best way to motivate me to do something is to tell me I’m incapable of doing it.

I didn’t start this site to get a certain amount of page views, so the data I’ve got knocks my socks off. In the nine months that this site has been online, it’s gotten almost 25,000 hits. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not a ton, but for one guy doing this site for no money and no ulterior motive other than providing relevant content for the sport he loves, it’s powerful stuff.

To those of you that have come along for the ride, thank you. 2017 was a banner year for me professionally. In addition to the launch of this site, I landed a fantastic job at the Daily Racing Form, and I emerged as the Saratoga meet’s leading handicapper across all media. As I tell people, “128 winners at a single Saratoga meet” is fast becoming my version of Al Bundy’s “four touchdowns in a single game!”

On a serious note, whether you visited from the start or came on at some point during the year, I’m incredibly grateful for your support. It’s my hope that 2018 provides even more excitement, and maybe even some more winners to boot. As a reminder, there’s a “contact” feature on this website, and I read every message that comes in. If you have a question, comment, or concern, use that and bring it to my attention.

Now, let’s see if we can make some money on the Saturday cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. My analysis, selections, and tickets are below. Let’s get to it!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7
R2: ALL
R3: 6,8
R4: 2,3
R5: 7

96 Bets, $48

On the whole, I think this is a pretty formful sequence. However, we may be able to make some money by getting lucky in the second leg, and even if the rest of the ticket chalks out, there may be some avenues to a profit.

The opener is a sprint for 3-year-olds, and I’ll use the two likely betting choices. #2 VENCEDOR may be favored on the class drop for Antonio Sano, but I actually prefer stablemate #7 CORONADO AGAIN, who figures to be the race’s controlling speed. He does step up in class, but he’s run against some tough opposition in the past and may get a dream setup if he’s allowed to coast to the front early.

I’m buying the second race, which, for my money, is the toughest race on the entire card. Several of the longshots are worth long looks, and the favorites aren’t without their flaws. It’s tough to predict which horse gets the early lead, and with many of the shorter prices being one-run closers, they may be crawling early. I want maximum coverage, and with a little luck, we’ll get a price home to knock out some tickets.

I’ll use the two favorites in the third, a bottom-level claimer going the one-turn mile route. #6 GOODTIMEHADBYALL and #8 ENDERS CAT drop out of the same Claiming Crown race, and by the numbers, they appear to have this field over a barrel. I’ll go a similar route in the fourth, using #2 BULLDOZER and #3 MR. BAKER, who’ll both be short prices.

That leads to the H. Allen Jerkens, a two-mile race on turf where I have a single. #7 BULLARDS ALLEY wants to run as long as possible, and a repeat of either of his last two efforts would make him tough to beat. He was beaten less than four lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and anywhere close to that type of performance would mean someone else would need to run a career-best race to win. I usually don’t like singling in marathon races, but this one makes sense.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,4,11,13,14,15
R9: 2,3,5,7,10
R10: 9
R11: 2,3,10

90 Bets, $45

I found this late Pick Four sequence baffling, especially since three major contenders in the opening leg are also-eligibles that may not run. For now, I’m putting them all on the ticket, and we’ll adjust the value of the ticket downward if there are any scratches.

The eighth is a claiming event on the turf for non-winners of three, and it’s not an easy race to decipher. I’ll use three also-eligibles and three other horses, two of which are prices. #1 TAGORE is a son of Giant’s Causeway who somehow has yet to try turf, and #11 SECOND STREET comes back to the appropriate level after a failed try against much better earlier this month.

The ninth isn’t much easier. It’s the Tropical Park Oaks, and I’m five-deep. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which horse will be favored, and my top pick is a reluctant one. #2 TAPERGE loves this turf course and makes her second start following a brief freshening. She seems to be getting better with experience, and we may get a decent price.

I’ll take a stab in the third leg, the Via Borghese. My single is #9 BEAULY, a 4-1 shot last seen running a close-up fourth in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. She’s run up against some classy distaffers this season, and she gets the services of top-notch rider Luis Saez. This sequence requires a single somewhere, and I’m hoping this one’s back class carries her through.

I’m three-deep in the final leg, the Tropical Park Derby. I’m throwing out runners exiting Aqueduct’s Gio Ponti Stakes, as that was a strangely-run race that may not hold water here. My top pick is #3 PROFITEER, who gets some class relief, but I’m also using two big prices. #2 TIZ A SLAM has hinted at major potential this season for Hall of Fame conditioner Roger Attfield, and #10 DANCE STRIKE has done very little wrong in three starts and could be ready for a big effort in his stakes debut.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 1,4
R3: 3,4,5,6,9,10
R4: 1,4,5,6
R5: 3

48 Bets, $24

I really like this sequence, and my ticket boasts singles on each end of it. We may get reasonable prices on each given the field sizes in those races, so if this ticket hits, we could be in line for a nice score.

My first single is #5 PROUD HEROINE in the opener, a turf sprint coming down the hill. This one has shown plenty of early zip, and “run-off” horses like that tend to settle going this route of ground. Additionally, she’s bred up and down for turf. She’s by Proud Citizen and out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare, which results in a strong 317 turf Tomlinson number. 5-1 is a very fair price, and I think she may be the horse to beat.

I’m not getting cute in the second, a maiden event for 2-year-olds going two turns. #1 PEACE and #4 RESTORING HOPE will take the lion’s share of the betting action, and those are the two I’m using. Both just missed in their last outings, and it would be surprising if one of them didn’t get the job done here.

The third race, though, is much more wide-open. I’m six-deep, and if you want to cover your bases, hitting the “ALL” button isn’t a bad idea. I’m also using most of the field in the fourth, the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel. I’m four-deep in that six-horse affair, and if there’s a silver lining, it’s that there’s no clear-cut favorite (at least on paper).

I’ll finish with a single in the fifth, a maiden claimer for 2-year-old sprinters. #3 CHARLIE COWDEN has yet to run a bad race around one turn and gets the services of Rafael Bejarano. His matching 61 Beyer Speed Figures in his two one-turn races are far better than anything any other horse in this field has produced, and he should get a bit of a pace to run at. Hopefully, he finishes things off and gets us in line to cash the ticket.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,5,6,8,9,10
R7: 9
R8: 4,5,6
R9: 4,9,10,13,14

90 Bets, $45

The cost of this ticket is likely to come down, as two of the five horses I used in the last leg are also-eligibles. With those taken out, it’s a $27 ticket, and given the field sizes, we could be looking at a sequence that pays more than it should.

I thought the hardest leg was the opening one. It’s an optional claimer that drew a field of 11, and the morning line favorite is 3-1 despite being 0-for-his-last-7. That’s #10 SHEER FLATTERY, who I’m using but is in no way an unbeatable favorite. Want to hit the “ALL” button if scratches elsewhere make the ticket cheaper? Go ahead.

The seventh is the Grade 1 American Oaks, and I’m living and dying with #9 NEW MONEY HONEY, who is 7/2 on the morning line but may go off lower than that. Toss the Grade 1 Alabama on dirt and the two races at Keeneland, and you’re left with a horse that has lost just once (in her career debut). She won the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks at this distance, and while I respect stablemate #8 RYMSKA, the only two times they’ve tangled, New Money Honey has dispatched her with relative ease. I’m singling last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, and if she doesn’t win, I lose.

The eighth is the Grade 3 Midnight Lute, and while I’m using two of the heavyweights, I also had to throw in a longshot. #4 MASOCHISTIC returns for new trainer Bob Baffert, while #5 AMERICANIZE has developed into a strong one-turn horse for Simon Callaghan. Those two will be tough, but there’s a lot of speed signed on, and because of that, I had to use #6 SOLID WAGER, who should be flying late. He won this race last year, and while he’d be outclassed at six furlongs, this race’s extra sixteenth of a mile works to his benefit. Maybe he’s a bit overmatched on numbers, but given the likely race shape, I had to have him on the ticket.

We’ll finish things off with a claimer on the grass. The two also-eligibles will be tough if they draw in, but that’s no sure bet. Because of that, I’m spreading a bit, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Santa Anita Opening Day (12/26/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

First and foremost, I hope you’re having a great holiday season with the people you love and care about. I’m huddled under several blankets typing this, as your resident handicapper/scribe is a converted Californian who’s no longer used to the winters of upstate New York!

One of the great treats of this time of year is opening day at Santa Anita. That card is coming up Tuesday and boasts nine races, including four of the graded stakes variety. I’ve got two multi-race exotics tickets that cover the entire program, and I’ll go through them all next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 9,10
R2: 3,6,9,10,12
R3: 6
R4: 2,3,4,8,10
R5: 4,8

100 Bets, $50

This ticket is built around the horse that will likely be the shortest price of the day. However, despite this “free square,” I think this Pick Five could pay handsomely.

I’m two-deep in the opener, and while I’m using morning line favorite #10 BIG BUZZ, my top pick actually breaks directly to that one’s inside. #9 FENGARI took a step forward in his first start going long, and he showed some early speed that day, which could serve him well in this spot. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, and top rider Javier Castellano (who’s in town on a one-day trip) could get an ideal trip on or near the lead in a very slowly-paced race. 5-1 seems like a square price given the likely race shape, and I could see the logic in singling him.

I’m spreading in the second race, which features a full field of 2-year-old maidens going seven furlongs. #12 CANDY CORNELL may be favored, as he exits a fast debut race at Del Mar where he was second despite most of his trainer’s runners needing a race or two to get going. He could be talented enough to win, but a bounce off of such an effort is far from impossible. The one to fear could be #9 AMERICAN RULE, a Bob Baffert trainee making his career debut following a string of fast workouts.

The single I mentioned is #6 COLLECTED in the Grade 2 San Antonio. Simply put, he seems better than the rest of this group, and if he runs the type of race he usually runs, he’ll be very difficult to beat. I respect the likes of #1 HOPPERTUNITY and #5 ACCELERATE, but Collected seems like a different kind of animal.

I thought the fourth race was the most difficult in the sequence. This is a maiden race for turf sprinters coming down the hill, and I want coverage. #10 SENSIBLE MYTH is a reasonable favorite, especially given the cushy outside draw and the continued presence of Flavien Prat. With that in mind, there are others that merit consideration. #2 CHICKATINI likely needed her debut and should step forward, #3 LADYBUG has experience and the running style that hints at downhill success, #4 SLICK TRICK is bred up and down for turf and has worked reasonably well, and #8 MAPIT has the pedigree to suggest the switch to turf will be a welcome one.

I’m two-deep in the payoff leg, and I’m not getting cute. I’m using #4 BIG GRAY ROCKET and #8 SPECTRE BOND, and they’ll likely be the top two betting choices. The former has been working well ahead of his first start in 14 months and may not have been too out of place in the Grade 1 Malibu later on in the card, while the latter makes his first start for new trainer Peter Miller and has hinted at potential from the get-go.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,8
R7: 1,3,7
R8: 6,8,9
R9: 2,5,8,11

72 Bets, $36

This is a very difficult sequence that, I believe, will pay out a healthy sum. I don’t have a single on this ticket, and hopefully, we can get this home.

The sixth is the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile for 3-year-olds. I’m two-deep, and I think this gets off to a formful start. #5 BOWIES HERO and #8 BIG SCORE are the two likely favorites, and I’m using them both. The absence of Sharp Samurai leaves the door open for one of the horses that have chased him to win this, and I think one of them does.

The seventh is the Grade 1 La Brea for 3-year-old fillies. Many will have this figured as a two-horse race between #3 UNIQUE BELLA and #7 PARADISE WOODS, and I’m using both, but I think it’s unwise to sleep on #1 MISS SUNSET. She’s a seven-furlong specialist with seven wins in 11 lifetime starts, and while the rail draw is a bit of a problem, she’ll likely be more of a price than she should be due to the presence of the other two heavyweights.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Malibu, and while it may bite me in the rear end, I’m against the morning line favorite. #4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME ships west for Chad Brown, but I’ve yet to be floored by him this year. He earned a big number with his last-out win at Aqueduct, but he didn’t beat a ton that day, so I’ll try to beat him, especially at his likely price. I prefer #6 PAVEL (cutting back to a distance he should love), #8 DABSTER (who showed a new dimension last time out and should improve second off the bench), and #9 C Z ROCKET (who’s yet to be beaten and has worked lights-out since arriving at Santa Anita).

We finish with a real mess of a race in the form of a one-mile optional claimer on turf. #11 LAZZAM could be favored, but he wasn’t an automatic “use” for me. He’s had a lot of chances lately, and I almost put forth a ticket that didn’t have him on there. The redeeming factor for him, though, is a lot of early speed that’s signed on, which should lead to a favorable race shape. I’ll also use morning line favorite #5 SPANISH HOMBRE, as well as a few prices. #2 INCREDIBLE LUCK returns to his favorite turf course following a needed run off the bench, and #8 ACCOUNTABILITY has flexibility and boasts a last-out win here back in October.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park (12/16/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Greetings from the after party of the 2017 Beemie Awards! I’ve beaten most of the crowd out of the venue, including Vic Stauffer and Andy Asaro, who may still be trading punches on the stage after reluctantly posing together with the Best Fight trophy. While I’m happy for the winners, I’m not over getting snubbed for the Mike Joyce Award for Handicapping Excellence and Bravery given the summer I had at Saratoga.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park is a good one. It’s filled with graded stakes races, and the early races make the preliminary Pick Five very challenging. I’ve got a few multi-race tickets lined up, and I’ll dive into them next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,7,11
R2: 1,6,11
R3: 1,7
R4: 4,6,8,10,11,12
R5: 1

108 Bets, $54

I try to keep the cost of my tickets down to around a $40 maximum, but I wanted as much coverage as I could feasibly have. My only single comes on the end, and it’ll be a popular one. If this is too expensive, and you’d like to cut my ticket down to an early Pick Four that starts in the second race, it’s currently an $18 investment (potentially less, but we’ll get to that).

I’m going against a morning line favorite right away. #3 LIGHTHOUSE SOUND is the tepid 7/2 choice, but he hasn’t won in a while and has floundered at this level at Presque Isle. I understand that those races are on synthetic tracks, but I’ll go elsewhere. One of my three is a big price. #11 VIGAS hasn’t run well at Gulfstream Park West and will need to negotiate a trip, but his races at this route from earlier this summer were pretty sharp. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I think he’s a must-use.

The second is a maiden claimer, and this is another race where one of the horses I’m using could be a price. My top pick is #11 LIL BAY CORVETTE, who’s a square 12-1 on the morning line. His trainer is off to a tremendous start to this meet, and the most recent workout was encouraging. She may not need to be much to beat this group, and I need to have her on the ticket.

I was able to narrow things down a bit in the third. #1 WEEZA GONE GRAY was nearly a single for me, as he gets a cushy inside draw and should be the main speed in the race. However, I also needed to use #7 LITTLE BALTAR, who takes a major class drop and has run several sharp races at this route against much better company.

For me, the fourth race was by far the trickiest race of the entire sequence. #13 UNCLE JUNIOR was my top pick, but she didn’t draw in off the AE list. As a result, I’m going six-deep, and hopefully, I’ve gone deep enough. If you’ve got deeper pockets, this is probably your “ALL” race.

I’m finishing things off by singling #1 CURLIN’S APPROVAL in the Grade 3 Rampart. She returns to her favorite track, and that should make a big difference. The distance isn’t ideal, but her standard race should put her in the winner’s circle, and if that happens, we could be in line for a nice score.

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #7

R7: 1,2,5
R8: 5
R9: 3
R10: 1,2,4,7,9
R11: 2,9,11

45 Bets, $22.50

I usually put together a late Pick Four ticket, but my late Pick Four is pretty affordable. If you want to play my suggested ticket in that sequence, it’s only a $7.50 investment thanks to two singles, and if it hits, it’ll probably be pretty chalky. With that in mind, I’ll suggest a Pick Five.

It starts in the seventh, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl. #1 DEAREST figures to be favored, and for good reason, but I can’t single her given that she’s making her first start since July. I’ll also use #2 MISS HOLLYWOOD (making her first start for Mark Casse) and #5 TRUE ROMANCE (who’s run several strong races against good competition and gets Paco Lopez).

My cold double starts in the eighth, and I think #5 ON LEAVE will be very tough to beat in the Grade 3 My Charmer. She generally runs the same high-quality race every time out, and there are no monsters lining up against her here. She was a solid third in the Grade 2 Goldikova last time out, and those were faster horses than what she’ll go against in this spot.

The ninth is the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday, and this is another spot where I think the favorite will be tough. #3 DESTIN won the Grade 2 Marathon last time out, and he ran into some strong horses last time out in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap. He gets significant class relief, and while I respect the likes of #5 PAGE MCKENNEY and #7 FEAR THE COWBOY, Destin’s best race would mean others would have to improve to beat him.

I’m spreading in the 10th, the Grade 3 Tropical Turf. I’ll use five of the nine horses signed on, and that includes likely favorite #7 BLACKTYPE. I don’t think he’s a cinch, but he’s probably the horse to beat. The horse to bet, however, may be #1 TOWER OF TEXAS, who could get a very fast pace in front of him. If he brings his Woodbine form with him, he could pose a real threat when the field turns for home.

The Saturday finale is a maiden special weight for 2-year-olds going long on the turf. Todd Pletcher saddles #9 HYNDFORD, and that first-time starter will likely be favored. However, I’ll also throw in #2 FORGOTTEN COAST (who has solid two-turn form) and #11 DR. BOMBAY (who’s bred to be a good one and has been working well, but will have to negotiate a trip from the far outside). Hopefully, we can beat a favorite in one of the “spread” races and manage a reasonable return on our investment.