horse | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/1/17

Posted on August 31, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908.35

In my travels Wednesday night, I came across a thread in a popular horse racing group on Facebook. It discussed a young analyst making a claim about Arrogate’s historical standing, and someone who disagreed said something so ignorant that I had to respond in writing. 1,200 words later, the finished product is online at AndrewChampagne.com and all of my social media outlets.

If you’re of the mindset that the younger people in this game have opinions that can be easily discarded, I urge you to read it. If you’ve got a reaction to it, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. This is something I’m extremely passionate about, and it may be one of the most important racing-related things I’ve ever written.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: If I could’ve updated my late Pick Four after scratches, I’d have thrown Ides of Arch into the first race following the defection of Grand Valour (and on a ticket I played in real-life, I did just that). However, in this section, that’s not possible, so the ticket I gave out fizzled right away. We dropped $18 after scratches destroyed the $37.50 ticket.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on the seventh and ninth races. In the seventh, I’ll key horse-for-course #2 NEW YORK’S FINEST in $5 exactas above and below #8 WHATSTOTALKABOUT and #9 ANIMAL POSSE, and in the ninth, I’ll put $5 to win and place on longshot of the day #11 LEM ME DANCE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Follow the Signs, Race 11
Longshot: Lem Me Dance, Race 9

Enduring Honor
Augie’s Coming
Heliodoro

ENDURING HONOR: Has run well in each of his last four starts, including a close-up second last time out. The winner that day just missed earlier this week; AUGIE’S COMING: Was third in that race and hasn’t missed the board since February of 2016. He figures to be prominent early, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; HELIODORO: Stretches back out to two turns, and the last time he raced at such a route, he won at a price. The connections are cold, but this one may be worth a look underneath.

Chipolina
Puttinyouonthenews
Radiant Beauty

CHIPOLINA: Had a series of very strong workouts at Keeneland earlier this summer for a barn that’s one of the best at winning with debuting runners. She’s bred up and down for turf, and she gets my nod in a very tough race; PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS: Comes back to the turf after running third in a race that was rained onto the main track earlier in the meet. Her debut on the grass was solid, and experience matters; RADIANT BEAUTY: Bounced in her second career start after a debut that was OK. She gets onto the turf, and given her pedigree (by Orb, out of a Mizzen Mast mare), that could be what she wants.

Valhalla
Italian Syndicate
High Five Cotton

VALHALLA: Has five top-two finishes in six completed races this season, including a win last time out at this level. The likely race shape should benefit this late-running closer, and this smaller barn has quietly had a solid meet; ITALIAN SYNDICATE: Is one of many in here that will likely go early. He was third against slightly better two back and returns to the dirt after a failed turf experiment; HIGH FIVE COTTON: Ships up from Penn National and gets leading rider Jose Ortiz. This jockey riding for a small barn could signal good intentions, and he has some races from earlier this summer at Monmouth that were not bad.

Draxhall Woods
All About Ashley
Imperio entry

DRAXHALL WOODS: Has been popular at the claim box, and for good reason. He was second at this level earlier in the meet, beat a better group two back, and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez; ALL ABOUT ASHLEY: Prevailed at this level and route last time out at a price and shouldn’t sneak up on anyone here. He did sit a great trip near a slow pace, but this barn has enjoyed a very strong meet; IMPERIO ENTRY: I prefer TUG OF WAR, who adds blinkers following a disappointing run last time out. He won at this distance two back, and a repeat of that effort puts him right there in a wide-open race.

Avast Matey
Divine Interventio
Scarf It Down

AVAST MATEY: Showed some zip in a fast race for this level last time out. That was his first effort in more than two months, so he may have needed the race, and he shouldn’t have to go that fast early on in this spot; DIVINE INTERVENTIO: Drops in off of a series of allowance races, and this seems like a much softer spot. He was well behind a very impressive winner here earlier in the meet, and he should appreciate the class relief; SCARF IT DOWN: Was second against a weaker group last time out and is aggressively jumped up in class by a new barn. That could signal confidence, and the recent workouts at Belmont Park look sharp.

Honor Way (MTO)
City Section
Madame Uno

CITY SECTION: Was a solid third at this level last time out when rating off of a very slow early pace. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, which means she should sit a great trip and have every chance to run them down late; MADAME UNO: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but was right on a very slow early pace and couldn’t finish the job. She could win, but I don’t usually like to pick horses on top following a perfect-trip loss; DYNAMIC WAR: Was well clear throughout in an easy score against maiden claimers. Judging by an OK second two back, she probably doesn’t need the lead to run well. DIRT SELECTIONS: HONOR WAY, QUESTEQ, JONQUIL.

Marriedtothemusic (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Whatstotalkabout

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Is 3-for-3 sprinting on turf at Saratoga, and two of those wins have come at this meet. This is probably a better field than what he’s been running against, but he figures to be the main speed, and he could be tough to run down; WHATSTOTALKABOUT: Cuts back after a third-place finish going seven furlongs at Belmont. The Servis/Ortiz combination has been lethal this summer, and his best race could certainly win this; ANIMAL POSSE: Prevailed at this route last time out. His record looks much better if you toss the seven-furlong race two back, and Javier Castellano jumps aboard. DIRT SELECTIONS: MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, D’FUNNYTHING, PROPER FREUD.

Zap Zap Zap
Tommy T
Pendleton

ZAP ZAP ZAP: Ran well in defeat last month, finishing second in a quick race for this level. This is a very difficult race, but a repeat of either of this one’s last two efforts would make him tough; TOMMY T: Was a good second in his debut for a barn whose horses sometimes need a race to get going. The winner came right back to win again, and the recent workouts here are very strong; PENDLETON: Fetched $600k at auction in 2015 and has worked well of late for powerhouse connections ahead of his debut. There are many first-time starters in here that could be runners, but I prefer this one the most of that group.

Lem Me Dance
Dubb entry
Amazing Anne

LEM ME DANCE: Has improved in every start to date and made a strong middle move in her first effort going a distance of ground. This barn has quietly enjoyed a strong meet, and given the big field, we may get a square price; DUBB ENTRY: FROSTY LADY has won two in a row since being claimed by Jason Servis, while COTTON CANDY CUTIE is strictly the one to beat if this race gets rained off the turf; AMAZING ANNE: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that effort is usually enough for a piece of it at this level. She doesn’t win much, but if you’re playing the exotics, she can’t be ignored. DIRT SELECTIONS: COTTON CANDY CUTIE, ABOUT THAT BASE, MADISON BLUES.

R10

Dowse’s Beach
Big Rock
Dream Mover

DOWSE’S BEACH: Ran a huge race in defeat last time out in a Grade 2 at Woodbine. He’s found another level since being claimed by Brad Cox, and he’s the one to beat if he fires his best shot; BIG ROCK: Is undefeated at this route and comes in off a win over a solid field. He could sit a great trip just off the pace; DREAM MOVER: Debuted with authority earlier in the meet, rallying powerfully against a weaker group at this route. The rail draw is a bit of a concern, but if he steps forward in his second start off a long layoff, he could be right there when it matters most.

R11

Follow the Signs
O Captainmycaptain
Bartleby

FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Takes a big drop in class off of a race earlier this meet that wasn’t bad. He was beaten less than two lengths despite hitting the gate, and his usual effort would make him extremely difficult to beat; O CAPTAINMYCAPTAIN: Found open company too tough last time out in his first start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. This should be a better level for him, and note the addition of both blinkers and Irad Ortiz; BARTLEBY: Needs luck to draw in off the AE list, but could be worth using underneath if he does. This barn hasn’t had a great meet, but he ran OK at this level a few weeks ago.

INTERLUDE: Standing Up for the Younger Crowd

Posted on August 31, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

…we were SO close.

I’m a pretty easygoing guy. Maybe it’s my California residence, maybe it’s that I have what I consider to be a dream job, or maybe it’s the fact that I’ve had a darned good year at the betting windows, but it takes a lot to tick me off, and for the first 35 days of the racing meet at Saratoga, that didn’t happen.

That was before Wednesday night, though, when I saw a post in a popular Facebook group called “Thoroughbred Racing in New York” that sent me over the edge. Full disclosure: I like and/or respect most of the group’s 2,600-plus members. I’ve met many of them on multiple occasions in various settings, and I consider the group’s chief moderator, Ernie Munick, a great ambassador for the sport and an even better person.

Here’s the full story. NYRA analyst Anthony Stabile, who I don’t know and have never met, went on TV after Arrogate’s second-place finish in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. He remarked that he was a member of the “younger generation,” and that not only did he consider Arrogate to be one of the best horses he’d ever seen, but that he also considered the big grey to be one of the best horses of all-time.

As comrade and Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello would say, “…and there we go with the antics.”

Outcry from some racing veterans against Stabile’s comments got pretty harsh. Before we go any further, here’s the crux of my column: I’m not here to argue for or against Stabile’s opinion. What I’m crusading against is the belief of some in the game that the opinions of those younger than them don’t carry weight, simply because of when the people carrying those views were born.

Nowhere was that more evident than in a comment I saw from a few days ago. The comment said, and I’m quoting here, “Stabile is just like so many younger fans who are blind to the past.”

I was fine before reading that. Every other comment, I could shrug off and move on from without a second thought. For some reason, that one hit me hard. It’s probably because I’m a nerd who has devoured most of the books on racing history that have been published in the last 20 years, but that comment reeked of such ignorance and snobbery that I could not possibly let it go unchecked.

I’ve always been a believer that most aspects of horse racing revolve around one central mission: Use what’s happened in the past to your advantage as you work forward. Gamblers do it every day reading the Daily Racing Form. Trainers do it in their barns when making split-second decisions on how to train their horses and where to run them. Owners and breeders analyze pedigrees and running lines on a constant basis when looking to breed or purchase horses. Marketing and business-types analyze handle numbers from every conceivable angle using data that would make your head spin (I worked for an ADW/television network for more than two years; trust me, I’d know). Heck, the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, an organization for which I’m proud to cast an annual ballot, is BUILT on that very concept.

Put simply, any claims that younger people in the industry don’t know their history are wrong. If we didn’t know our history, we wouldn’t have lasted five minutes, let alone thrived. I’m 28 years old, and I have no memory of seeing any great horse before the days of Cigar. Does that make me any less fit to express my opinion? Of course not.

I’ve won awards for my work in the business. I work for the leading authority on horse racing news in this country, and my resume includes stops at both HRTV and TVG. I’ve also been fortunate enough to continue my work for The Saratogian as that paper’s main handicapper, and I’m simply stating a fact when I tell you that any credible list of top public handicappers at that track (based there or anywhere else) has me on it. That isn’t arrogance, or bluster, or ego, or a strong personality talking. That’s a conclusion grounded in statistics and facts from the past several years.

So yeah. Forgive me if I took those comments just a wee bit personally.

I’m not alone in having a certain amount of gravitas in this business at a young age. The aforementioned Pete Aiello isn’t even halfway to social security, and he’s emerged as one of the top race-callers in the business. Joe Nevills, Nicole Russo, Matt Bernier, and David Aragona are similar-aged colleagues at the Daily Racing Form and TimeformUS, and I’d put their skills in their respective lines of work up against those of anyone else in the business. They’re that good, and they’re going to BE that good for a long, long time.

I’ve worked with Gino Buccola, Caleb Keller, Joaquin Jaime, Tom Cassidy, and Britney Eurton at TVG, along with a large number of people behind the scenes whose names you don’t know but who the operation would not work without. HRTV was much the same way. Once again, please let me stress that this is not a matter of if I agreed with those people all of the time. The point I’m trying to make is different, and it’s simple: You don’t get to bash the source of those comments simply because that source is younger than you’d like him/her to be.

I’ve heard this stuff before, and I’m tired of it. I’ve gotten hate mail from a Kentucky Derby-winning owner. I’ve been told by people that I’m not good at what I do, and in fact, being told that there were certain things I wasn’t good enough to do sparked the very existence of this site. Those who know me well will tell you that the best way to motivate me is to tell me I can’t do something. That flips a switch, and my priority instantly becomes to prove people wrong. Dislike me as much as you want, and I probably won’t care. Disrespect me, or try to discredit me, and I’m going to pull out all the stops to prove you wrong.

If it seems like I’ve got a chip on my shoulder sometimes, that’s probably accurate. The stuff about ego and bluster, though, is a bit overblown, and if you think my personality is that strong, understand that you’re seeing my competitive nature and a freakish desire to be the best at what I do, all the time. I know that doesn’t sit well with some people, and I’ve paid for that (for stories on that topic, check back in 30 years when I write my memoirs to pay for Pick Four tickets). I’ve come to terms with being labeled as “the motor-mouthed kid that doesn’t shut up,” but what I refuse to tolerate is the notion that anyone under the age of 35 or so shouldn’t be taken seriously solely because we’re younger than most of our contemporaries.

What was said struck a chord with me in all the wrong ways. I won’t speak for some of the people that I’ve mentioned in this column, but I will say that I refuse to be disregarded simply because I’m younger than most of the people in my field. I’ve done too much and worked too hard to be treated that way, and I know I’m not alone in putting in the time and effort.

To those who come here and value my input and thoughts: Thank you. You’re a large part of the reason I write this stuff. If you’re one of the people who thinks those younger than you are somehow inferior simply because of their age, think again. I won’t accept it, and I’ll be happy to tell you, and show you, that you’re wrong.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/31/17

Posted on August 30, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $926.35

Seeing a field of five signed on for Saturday’s Woodward was disappointing, but not surprising. Gun Runner is arguably the top older horse in training, and the defections of Grade 1 winners Shaman Ghost and Cupid weren’t small ones. However, the Grade 1 Spinaway only getting a field of five is insulting to that race’s history, as well as the history of the track it’s run at.

Saratoga has the reputation of a track where 2-year-old prospects burst onto the scene. To be fair, the field does include runaway Adirondack winner Pure Silver and flashy first-out graduates Separationofpowers and Lady Ivanka. However, with 2-year-old races run every single day this meet, a field double the size of what will line up Saturday wouldn’t have been shocking. Long story short: This race deserves better.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was right in my theory that the late Pick Four would pay well. Unfortunately, I couldn’t come up with With Anticipation winner Catholic Boy despite having half the field on my ticket. As a result, we dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at the late Pick Four, and my ticket is built around #3 ORBOLUTION in the P.G. Johnson. My 50-cent ticket: 5,6,8,10,12 with 2,6,8 with 3 with 1,4,6,9,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $37.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ultimateenticement, Race 5
Longshot: Saratoga Charlie, Race 10

No Wunder
Giza
Balance the Budget

NO WUNDER: Was second at this level earlier in the meet and seems logical here. He found stakes company too tough two back, but he’s fit right in here before; GIZA: Was in good form before his last start, which saw him leave the course early. He should be prominent early for powerful connections; BALANCE THE BUDGET: Was fifth in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick last time out and gets significant class relief here. He led midway through that race and could make the lead in this spot at a bit of a price.

Forge
Irst
One More Round

FORGE: Takes an aggressive drop in class after three starts against straight maidens, none of which were bad. The early pace last time out was probably too fast, and he should have an easier go of it here; IRST: Was a close second in his first start at this level a few weeks ago. Few are better with new acquisitions than Linda Rice, who claimed him out of that race; ONE MORE ROUND: Had a strange trip last time out in his first start off a long layoff. He’d traditionally been a speed horse, but was well off the pace in the slop. He fits with a more conventional go of it here.

Control Group
Minsky Moment
Born for a Storm

CONTROL GROUP: Has won two in a row, including a wire-to-wire score against claiming company at this route earlier in the meet. This is a tougher spot, but he should make the lead from his inside post; MINSKY MOMENT: Has done very little wrong in four starts and has never finished outside the top two. He was a close second behind a winner who sat a perfect trip last time out, and these connections merit respect; BORN FOR A STORM: Tries two turns for the first time and has the running style to embrace such a route. He’s been a bit one-paced in two starts this meet, and he did run an OK second at a mile last year.

Cozzy Spring
Shimmering Moon
Jules N Rome

COZZY SPRING: Won two in a row before a failed turf experiment last time out. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems quickest of these out of the gate and is a real threat to go wire-to-wire; SHIMMERING MOON: Cruised home in her first start for Michelle Nevin earlier this meet. This may be a tougher group, but she has the potential to sit a perfect trip just off the speed; JULES N ROME: Comes back to state-bred competition after a third-place finish against open company. She loves this track, and while she may be a bit off her best form, she could easily get a piece of this.

Ultimateenticement
Candy Zip
Five Star Bunt

ULTIMATEENTICEMENT: Was a strong second in his local debut to a well-meant Chad Brown trainee. He was four lengths clear of the rest of the field that day, and his experience is a big plus against this largely-inexperienced field; CANDY ZIP: Has worked well of late here for a trainer that can have debuting runners ready to roll. The August 3rd bullet jumps off the page, and he’s clearly one to consider; FIVE STAR BUNT: Was fourth behind two next-out winners last month (including a stakes winner). He’s had issues at the gate in each of his two outings, but Javier Castellano signing on could signal this barn’s intent.

Hard Scramble (MTO)
Grand Sky
Rate for Me

GRAND SKY: Took a step forward first off the claim earlier this month, rolling home for powerful connections. He’s got two wins and a second at this route, and he should be rolling late; RATE FOR ME: Has won two in a row and seems to be figuring things out. He may not have beaten a tough field last time out, but this barn has had a strong meet, and further improvement would make him dangerous; HOLD ME BLACK: Was run down late in his local debut and had to settle for second despite a big effort. He nearly overcame a far-outside post, and today’s assignment is a bit more forgiving in that regard. DIRT SELECTIONS: HARD SCRAMBLE, PORTANDO, HOLD ME BLACK.

Zonic (MTO)
Summer Mischief
Appealing Briefs

SUMMER MISCHIEF: Showed improved early speed last time out, pressing a decent pace and hanging on for third. This race doesn’t appear to have a lot of speed signed on, and he could clear most of these going into the first turn; APPEALING BRIEFS: Was second in that same race, but sat a much better trip rating well off the pace. He seems to have a habit of running second, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if he breaks through; GRAND VALOUR: Was distanced early in his debut but somehow rallied to salvage fourth, making up nearly 14 lengths in 5 1/2 furlongs. This is a tougher group, and Castellano taking off isn’t encouraging, but I need to throw him in. DIRT SELECTIONS: ZONIC, GRAND VALOUR, CATCH A CAB.

Jupiter Rising
Storm Prophet
Manifest Destiny

JUPITER RISING: Was probably left with too much to do last time out in his first try against winners. He’s since been transferred to the Todd Pletcher barn, and two turns shouldn’t be a problem; STORM PROPHET: Is extremely consistent, but has not won since October of 2015. His usual effort almost certainly gets him a piece of it, but I have a tough time endorsing horses like this on top; MANIFEST DESTINY: Hasn’t won since his debut, but he’s woken up a bit going long on turf. He figures to be prominent early, and note that he beat this race’s likely favorite home last time out.

Orbolution
Mentality
Life Time Citizen

ORBOLUTION: Woke up last time out in her turf debut, rolling home against overmatched maidens. She’s one of just two in here with two-turn experience, and continued development would make her tough to beat; MENTALITY: Went wire-to-wire in her debut downstate back in June and stretches out here. The pedigree suggests she should handle the added distance, and she’ll likely make the lead early on; LIFE TIME CITIZEN: Has a running style that indicates she’ll love two turns. She was one-paced in a similar-level race going shorter a few weeks ago, so this trip could suit her.

R10

Bunyaan
Hy Brasil
Saratoga Charlie

BUNYAAN: Was an OK second going two turns last month and makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. She’s in the midst of a stellar meet, and this one gets the nod in a wide-open finale; HY BRASIL: Took advantage of the class drop last time out with a win in his first start for a tag. His race three back at this distance wasn’t horrible, and this barn merits respect; SARATOGA CHARLIE: Figures to be a big price off of two clunkers, but those races came against much better horses. Additionally, he’s done some of his best work at this distance, with a win and a second in two starts at seven furlongs.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/30/17

Posted on August 29, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $956.35

It was great to be back east for a week. I saw my family, I picked some winners, and I ate good pizza, which, as any of you who have spent time on the west coast know, is very rare out there. However, there’s a concerning epidemic that I need to address, and unfortunately, I must be firm.

If you are a male heading to the track, and you feel the urge to wear pants or shorts that would qualify as “salmon?” Don’t. Just don’t. They look ridiculous, and you will be laughed at behind your back. I’m considering channeling Moe Drabowsky (a baseball player perhaps best-recalled for the prank known as “the hot foot”) and setting said pants on fire while people are wearing them. Consider yourselves warned ahead of my next trip east, whenever that may be.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: My early doubles went up in smoke when Discretionary Marq ran second in the opener, but we did cash a ticket later on in the card. Unfortunately, English Soul was bet down to 5/2 off a 15-1 morning line, so when she ran second, our $3 win-place-show stab only returned $11.85. In total, we dropped $17.15.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I think the late Pick Four has the potential to pay well, so I’ll focus my energy there. My 50-cent ticket reads thusly (numbers, not names, so as to save space): 1,2,3,6,11 with 6 with 4,7,8,9,10,11 with 6,9.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mr. Crow, Race 8
Longshot: Barrel of Dreams, Race 7

Special Risk
Renewal
Communion Money

SPECIAL RISK: Is 0-for-12, and that’s usually too many chances for my taste, but she takes a considerable drop in class to the lowest level she’s ever run at. These connections are aggressive, and her best race likely wins this; RENEWAL: Is a regally-bred 3-year-old filly, so it’s very strange to see her debut for a $20k tag. She’s by Speightstown, and out of a Malibu Moon mare, and while the connections merit respect, her being offered up for a fifth of her purchase price is a red flag; COMMUNION MONEY: Didn’t take to the turf last time out and returns to her preferred surface. She figures to be prominent early.

Call Provision
Tasit
Three Diamonds entry

CALL PROVISION: Was a good second earlier in the meet at this level and route. There appears to be some pace signed on here, which would benefit this one given his late-running style; TASIT: Was beaten less than two lengths by my top pick last time out. He’s been gelded since that effort, and that could make a significant difference; THREE DIAMONDS ENTRY: ALTAR BOY was a good second in his last turf marathon effort, while BONUS POINTS looms large if this race is rained off the turf and onto the main track. DIRT SELECTIONS: BONUS POINTS, ROYAL POSSE, TASIT.

Core Portfolio
Dunk a Din
Erik the Red

CORE PORTFOLIO: Gets my reluctant top pick in a race that can be described as a pari-mutuel mess. Many of these come out of races from earlier in the meet that are less than inspiring, and this one figures to get an easy early lead while dropping significantly in class; DUNK A DIN: Outlasted similar foes earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who does strong work with new acquisitions; ERIK THE RED: Gets a two-turn route of ground, and he ran some solid races at similar routes this past winter at Aqueduct. Maybe he preferred the inner as opposed to two turns, but at his likely price, I’m inclined to use him in exotics.

Subic Bay
More Than a Legend
Schwartz entry

SUBIC BAY: Showed some early zip in a turf marathon last month and cuts back to the route she probably wants. This spot also represents a slight class drop, which should help; MORE THAN A LEGEND: Was an OK third at this route earlier in the meet and adds blinkers here. The rider switch to Luis Saez is notable, as is her close second at this level last summer; SCHWARTZ ENTRY: I prefer ETERNAL VOW, who has a race under her belt and goes to the Todd Pletcher barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSACTION TAX, SCHWARTZ ENTRY, FOREIGN AFFAIR.

Avery Maeve
Hannah’s Smile
Misty On Pointe

AVERY MAEVE: Did everything but win last time out at this level and route. She missed by just a head to an OK turf sprinter despite being herded turning for home, and she beat a number of today’s rivals in that spot; HANNAH’S SMILE: Also exits that race, and is another that had an adventurous trip that day. The outside post is a bit of a concern, but note that she almost overcame this post last time out; MISTY ON POINTE: Ships up from Laurel Park for connections that have done well here this summer. That turf course has its quirks, but she’s 2-for-2 at this distance and should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: R LUCKY CHARM, TARQUINIA, MARNESIA BIG GIRL.

Seam
Presumptuous
Wise Strike

SEAM: Ran well in her debut when closing to be second in the slop at Gulfstream. She hasn’t been seen since, but she sports a recent bullet drill and there should be some pace for her to run at; PRESUMPTUOUS: Is 0-for-13 lifetime, but has run well twice at this meet. Luis Saez gets on, and this barn has quietly had a very solid meet to this point; WISE STRIKE: Missed by a neck going longer at Monmouth and cuts back for formidable connections. She’s shown zip in several recent workouts and figures to be prominent early.

Stay Fond (MTO)
Barrel of Dreams
Durable Goods

BARREL OF DREAMS: Loves Saratoga and should sit a perfect trip in this spot. She’s 3-for-4 over this turf course, including a win earlier this month, and there isn’t much other quality speed signed on; DURABLE GOODS: Faces winners for the first time after graduating last month. The pedigree says today’s added distance won’t be a problem, and this trainer/jockey tandem has been on fire this meet; PALINODIE: Hasn’t been seen since November, when she was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. She’s shown talent, and while she may need this race, anything close to her best would put her right there. DIRT SELECTIONS: STAY FOND, JUST GOT OUT, BARREL OF DREAMS.

Mr. Crow
Patternrecognition
Cavil

MR. CROW: Earned a freaky 109 Beyer Speed Figure when demolishing maidens early in the meet. This is a pretty tough race for this level, but this colt is strictly the one to beat; PATTERNRECOGNITION: Has hooked stakes-quality opposition in both prior starts at this level. There’s no shame in running second to Takaful and Coal Front, and he merits respect; CAVIL: Could be worth a look underneath. He likely needed his last race, and he had a horrible trip that day when chasing a good-looking winner. Improvement off that effort is logical, and he may be a square price.

Evaluator
Trumpi
Earth

EVALUATOR: Circled the field in his debut and won going away. Yes, he did that against state-breds, but the third-place finisher has since come back to win, and if he gets any pace to run at, he figures to be rolling late; TRUMPI: Wired the field at big odds in his debut, and he won’t be sneaking up on anyone here. The post position is not ideal, but he could be quick enough to clear most of the field early; EARTH: Was beaten at 3/5 in a stakes race at Monmouth last time out. His pedigree suggests he’ll love this distance, but the last-out clunker is a bit of a concern.

R10

Under Suspicion
Salty Smile
Climb the Ladder

UNDER SUSPICION: Was bet in her debut and ran well in defeat. She dueled early through a fast pace in the mud before finishing third, all for a barn whose first-time starters usually need the race. She should improve here; SALTY SMILE: Has worked very well ahead of her debut for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. It’s tough to go seven furlongs at first asking, but she could be ready to run right away; CLIMB THE LADDER: Was a distant second behind a runaway winner here last month, but she beat the rest of the field by six lengths. There are no such monsters here, so she could take another step forward.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Trying to Make Sense of the 3-Year-Old Male Division

Posted on August 28, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

I was really, REALLY hoping I didn’t have to write this column.

You see, like pretty much everyone else, I’ve been hoping for months that a 3-year-old would separate himself from the rest of the division. Briefly, Always Dreaming did that, but he was knocked off the mountaintop just as quickly as he ascended it. Ever since the Preakness, the division has been shrouded in confusion, with big efforts often followed by duds that only serve to make things more difficult to decipher.

In what doubled as a dream come true for the NYRA marketing department, the three winners of the three Triple Crown races lined up in last Saturday’s Travers. Much like the last time this happened (1982), though, the race wasn’t won by one of those horses. West Coast, whose lone graded stakes win before the Midsummer Derby came at Los Alamitos against what would charitably be called a mediocre bunch, went wire-to-wire under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith and earned the top Beyer Speed Figure of any 3-year-old router to this point in the season.

I’ll attempt to decipher the division here. Essentially, this acts as a quick and dirty summary of the main players, as well as what they likely need to do to emerge as a contender for the division’s Eclipse Award. I only considered horses that had won at least one Grade 1 race in 2017, which means horses like 2-3 Travers finishers Gunnevera and Irap, as well as Jim Dandy winner Good Samaritan, are out.

Disagree? Think I missed something? Shoot me a message, and I’ll be happy to discuss what I think.

West Coast

Claim to Fame: Beat the winners of all three Triple Crown races in the Travers.

Drawbacks: Hasn’t done much else to this point. He was visually impressive in both stakes wins earlier in the year, but he didn’t beat many quality foes in either spot.

Eclipse Chances: High. A win in either the Pennsylvania Derby (against 3-year-olds) or the Jockey Club Gold Cup (against older horses) would give him a resume very few in the division could match. Fun fact: If West Coast wins the award, this will mark the third time in the last five years that it has gone to a horse that did not win a Triple Crown race. Before Will Take Charge won in 2013 despite lacking such a win, the last thoroughbred to pull it off was Tiznow, who did so in 2000.

Always Dreaming

Claim to Fame: Won the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby back-to-back, both by daylight.

Drawbacks: Has failed to win any of his three subsequent starts. I’m a bit higher on his Jim Dandy than most (he did salvage third over a very tiring track), but his Preakness and Travers efforts were lousy.

Eclipse Chances: Higher than you may think. As of this writing, no active 3-year-old can match his top-end wins, and even if he never runs again (which is possible, maybe even likely), there’s a chance he’ll end the year as this season’s only 3-year-old male with multiple Grade 1 wins on dirt. That would make him a popular “hold your nose” vote.

Tapwrit

Claim to Fame: Won the Belmont, and did so in impressive fashion. He and runner-up Irish War Cry were well clear of the rest of the field.

Drawbacks: He’s only won twice, and while he didn’t run terribly in the Travers, he was fourth behind three horses that had previously combined for zero Grade 1 victories to this point in the season.

Eclipse Chances: Medium. There’s a chance he needed the Travers off a 12-week layoff, and a run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup would mean a chance at another Grade 1 victory at the scene of his greatest triumph to date. Such a win would give him two signature victories and would put him squarely in the middle of the conversation ahead of the Breeders’ Cup.

Oscar Performance

Claim to Fame: Has won back-to-back Grade 1 races, and is the only 3-year-old male in the country besides Always Dreaming with two such wins on his resume this year.

Drawbacks: He’s a turf horse.

Eclipse Chances: None most years, but this year, he’s got a shot. If ever there was a year for an unconventional winner of this award, it’s 2017, and a win over older horses would do wonders for his candidacy. He could get such a victory in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch, provided his connections opt to bypass the Grade 3 Hill Prince, which boasts a similar purse and (likely) much less in the way of opposition. If he wins the Hirsch and runs well in the Breeders’ Cup (no easy task, since the Turf’s distance would be uncharted territory for him and the Mile is never an easy race to win), it would be impossible to keep him out of this discussion.

Classic Empire

Claim to Fame: When he’s right, he’s probably the best horse in this division in terms of pure talent. He won the Arkansas Derby, was the victim of a lousy trip when fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and just missed in the Preakness…

Drawbacks: …but he hasn’t been seen since. His connections had eyed the Pennsylvania Derby, but those plans fell through.

Eclipse Chances: Low. On one hand, if this horse hangs on in the Preakness, we’re probably not having this conversation (it’s at least much more concentrated in nature). On the other hand, how can one consider this horse a contender when he hasn’t raced since mid-May? Maybe he runs again in either the Breeders’ Cup or the Cigar Mile. Maybe he doesn’t and we’ve seen the last of him. If the latter is the case, it’s a real shame.

Practical Joke

Claim to Fame: Won the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day, and an argument can be made that he’s the best 3-year-old in the country at what he does.

Drawbacks: What he does is run one turn. He’s not the same horse going a conventional, two-turn route of ground.

Eclipse Chances: Low, and it’s no fault of the horse or his connections. If the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile was contested around one turn (like it will be next year at Churchill Downs), or if the Sprint was seven furlongs and not six, he would be in a great spot. However, he’s between distances and will need to overcome the lack of an ideal race on racing’s biggest weekend. A Sprint win would almost certainly vault him to the head of the class, and a Dirt Mile win would also be helpful, but if he loses either race and salvages the Cigar Mile or Malibu, would that be enough of a resume? I don’t think so.

Girvin

Claim to Fame: Won the Grade 1 Haskell over a solid group, which included next-out Jerkens winner Practical Joke and next-out Shared Belief winner Battle of Midway. Earlier this season, he also captured the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes.

Drawbacks: Misfired in both the Travers and the Kentucky Derby, which were prime opportunities for him to show he belongs at the top of this division.

Eclipse Chances: Slim. Most years, he’d already be eliminated, counted out as a nice horse, but not one of the best. However, if he wins the Pennsylvania Derby, all of a sudden, we’ve got a horse that’s won two Grade 1’s, two Grade 2’s, and a lot of money. Is it unlikely? Yes, but then again, so was his Haskell win.

Cloud Computing

Claim to Fame: Reeled in Classic Empire in the Preakness, giving Chad Brown his first win in a Triple Crown race.

Drawbacks: He’s done nothing since then, throwing in two clunkers at Saratoga.

Eclipse Chances: Slim to none. If he comes back with a winning effort in a Breeders’ Cup prep race, we can more easily throw out the Saratoga races. However, those races were dreadful, and it’s tough to swallow something like that in this sort of a discussion.