horse | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/27/17

Posted on July 25, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $952

Even if you aren’t a fan of steeplechase racing, Thursday’s opener is worth your attention. It’s the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, and among the runners is a horse named Mr. Hot Stuff. Way back in 2009, he ran in the Kentucky Derby. More recently, in 2013, he won this very race at Saratoga.

Four years after that Grade 1 triumph, and eight years after running on thoroughbred racing’s grandest stage, Mr. Hot Stuff will attempt to win another big race…at the age of 11 years young. Some of his Derby opponents have already had offspring win Grade 1 races and retire (most notably, Pioneerof the Nile’s American Pharoah), and yet here’s Mr. Hot Stuff, still competing at a high level over fences. Phenomenal, isn’t it?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Key horse Finley’sluckycharm was defeated despite a huge Honorable Miss effort, but we still made out OK. We hit the $12.60 exacta five times, and our $25 investment returned a total of $63.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I think Chad Brown’s in line for a big day, and I’ll single two of his entered betting interests in the early Pick Four. I’ll single #10 SILVER SHAKER in the third, punch the “ALL” button in the fourth, include #2 CYRIELLE and #3 PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS in the fifth, and single the entry of #1 RAY’S THE BAR and #1A TRICKED UP in the sixth. Due to the low cost of the ticket, I’ll play it for $1 instead of the normal 50-cent denomination.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Brown entry, Race 6
Longshot: Celtic Chaos, Race 9

Mr. Hot Stuff
Portrade
Schoodic

MR. HOT STUFF: Will attempt the remarkable feat of winning the same Grade 1 steeplechase race four years after he last captured it. He’s got plenty of back form, and he’s one of the top jump horses in the country when he’s right; PORTRADE: Won last year’s Turf Writers Handicap and was a close-up second two back. There’s a lot of speed signed on, but the cutback in distance could help him here; SCHOODIC: Is a “feast or famine” type, but when he’s right, he’s quite good. He won a Grade 2 two back, and the likely race shape should work in his favor.

Fortunate Queen
Bixby Lou
Miss Pearl

FORTUNATE QUEEN: Is my reluctant top pick in the first of many complicated flat races today. She drops in for a tag in her first start for Rudy Rodriguez, and she ran some OK races out west earlier in her career that would make her tough if replicated here; BIXBY LOU: Has burned money as the favorite in her first three starts, and is another dropping in class. Her effort two back was solid, and she could be tough (especially if she solves the gate issues she’s had); MISS PEARL: Merits a look at a price. She was an OK second last time out at Finger Lakes, and she figures to be prominent early on.

Silver Shaker
Anothertequilashot
Summer Falls

SILVER SHAKER: Drops in for a tag off of a pair of maiden special weight efforts that weren’t bad. The outside post is an obstacle, but continued progression would make her formidable in this spot; ANOTHERTEQUILASHOT: Quizzically tried Grade 3 company two back and drops in for a tag for the first time this afternoon. She’s a one-run closer who would benefit from some speed being shown by others early; SUMMER FALLS: Is a European import getting Lasix for the first time, which is a move that must always be respected. Her runs overseas were nothing to write home about, but she may not need to be much to get a piece of it in her American debut. DIRT SELECTIONS: SILVER SHAKER, MADDY’S WAY, AIFE.

Saratoga Mischief
At Guard
Hard Hitter

SARATOGA MISCHIEF: Draw lines through the inner track races, and you have a horse that’s done little wrong over fast dirt tracks. He was second in a Grade 2 here back in 2015 and could get an ideal trip rating just off the abundant early speed; AT GUARD: Figures to be the main speed, especially in his first effort as a gelding. If he recaptures his 2016 form, he could be tough here; HARD HITTER: Could benefit from the slight cutback in distance, and would move up considerably in the event of a wet track.

Cyrielle
Puttinyouonthenews
Sweet Offer

CYRIELLE: Has a worktab not often seen among debuting runners from this barn. She seems very precocious, which would back up the $300,000 purchase price, and offspring of Animal Kingdom have been very impressive so far this year; PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS: Showed speed in her debut last month at Belmont and should improve at second asking. Irad staying aboard is a major plus; SWEET OFFER: Is a full sibling to Grade 1 winner Sidney’s Candy and Grade 3 winner Sweet Swap. Hennig trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going, but this one certainly fits on pedigree. DIRT SELECTIONS: CYRIELLE, TALK SOFTLY, NO DEAL.

Brown entry
Mighty Mo
Baratti (MTO)

BROWN ENTRY: It wouldn’t be shocking to see RAY’S THE BAR and TRICKED UP run 1-2 in some order here. Both have shown immense ability at times, and this looks like a very tough entry to get past in handicapping; MIGHTY MO: Ran against some heavy hitters last year but misfired when back up north last month. He may have needed the race, and the return to two turns should help him; TUSK: Is a deep closer who would benefit immensely from a speed duel up front. He may need more pace than he’ll get, but the late kick he’s shown means he’s worth a look underneath. DIRT SELECTIONS: BARATTI, DEVINE DENTAL, TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK.

Tom’s d’Etat
Splashtastic
Far From Over

TOM’S D’ETAT: Was extremely impressive in his last-out victory at Churchill. He won at this route by daylight last summer, and stakes races could be in his future with another sharp performance here; SPLASHTASTIC: Recorded a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in two downstate defeats this past spring. Based on those numbers, he’ll be tough, but his last two wins both came in perfect-trip efforts on Aqueduct’s quirky inner track; FAR FROM OVER: Has been equal parts brilliant and perplexing in a strange career that’s seen him sidelined for long periods of time. His best race may win this, but those last two clunkers and the expected low odds are a lot for this handicapper to swallow.

Ava’s Kitten
Blue Bahia
Ancient Secret

AVA’S KITTEN: Likely needed her 2017 debut off such a long layoff. Her one-turn turf races are considerably better than her two-turn efforts, and she won at this route last season; BLUE BAHIA: Has won six of her eight turf starts, including a minor stakes race at Monmouth back in May. She has plenty of speed, but does not need the lead, which could make for an ideal trip; ANCIENT SECRET: Has plateaued of late, having gone winless in her last four after reeling off four straight wins to start her career. Her best race could win, but this is her first time going such a short distance, and she may need more ground.

Celtic Chaos
Weekend Hideaway
Fish Trappe Road

CELTIC CHAOS: There’s a LOT of early speed signed on in today’s co-feature, and that could set things up for this stone closer that’s won two in a row. The faster they go early, the more he’ll like it, and we may get a bit of a price; WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Has won over a million dollars the hard way and is an easy horse to root for. He loves Saratoga, and his usual race likely gets him a big piece of the purse; FISH TRAPPE ROAD: Faces state-bred competition for the first time since 2015. When he’s on his game, this graded stakes winner is very good, and he could appreciate the class relief he gets in this spot.

R10

Fahan Mura
True Love Is Yare
Owesaycanyousee

FAHAN MURA: Drops back into the claiming ranks after an OK third at Parx last time out. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one’s races against claimers have all been solid; TRUE LOVE IS YARE: Sat a perfect trip on the front end to graduate at second asking in her last effort and tries winners for the first time. She’ll likely have company on the front end, but there’s certainly room for her to improve in her third lifetime start; OWESAYCANYOUSEE: Tried tougher company last time out at Monmouth and drops back into the claiming ranks. Top speed rider Paco Lopez rides this frontrunner for Jersey-based trainer Pat McBurney, who has hit at a 20% clip this year as of this writing. DIRT SELECTIONS: WOUNDWITHHEREYES, OWESAYCANYOUSEE, CINCY BELLE.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Slumps, Family, and Lady Eli

Posted on July 24, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

“I suck.”

Not the way you expected this to start out, huh? Well, that’s what was going through my head this past weekend.

If you’re visiting this site, you probably know that, in addition to my duties as a Web Producer for the Daily Racing Form, I’m the featured handicapper in The Pink Sheet, the daily racing insert in The Saratogian. I had picked the first winner on the first day of the meet…and then proceeded to go 1-for-the-next-18 on my printed top selections.

Every handicapper goes through slumps. I’ve actually written about how to get through them and bounce back. That said, when you’re putting your name behind your picks, and your picks aren’t coming through, it’s incredibly frustrating. Add in my insane competitive streak, a chip on my shoulder (the reason for that is best saved for another column many years from now), and a general desire to put forth good work, and what you get is where I was Saturday afternoon.

Welcome to the life of a public handicapper. On its face, the task seems simple: Handicap every race, every day at Saratoga from mid-July through Labor Day, pick your top three horses, and do better than the people lined up against you. Following the retirement of Nick Kling (a world-class horseplayer and an even better guy), my responsibilities expanded to include race-by-race write-ups and a bankroll blurb, the latter of which was directly inspired by the “Battle of Saratoga” blurbs in the New York Daily News, which I devoured every time I went to the races as a kid.

When you’re going good as a public handicapper, very few things feel better, especially if you’re cashing tickets as you go. When you’re running bad, the cards seem to go by slower, and about the only thing you can do is eye the next day’s program and see if there are any opportunities to catch up. The “boo birds” do come out on Twitter occasionally, hiding behind fake names and using pictures that aren’t their own, but that, I can deal with.

I’ve always been very good at dealing with other people telling me that I stink. I’ve gotten hate mail from a Kentucky Derby-winning owner and upper management at one of the most prominent racetracks in the country. I’m blocked on Twitter by the current head of a conference whose stalwart program I worked as an athletic communications intern for from 2010 through 2012. I’ve been name-called, abused, and told I’m horrible at my job, all by the same person and all in the past two and a half months (go on Twitter; it’s not hard to find). Long story short, I’m pretty confident in my own ability to take punches that are thrown by other people.

When it’s ME telling MYSELF I stink, though? Oh, boy.

I’m extremely fortunate to have a great relationship with my father. He taught me how to handicap, he brought me to the track once a week during the summer when I was growing up, and I’ve always said that if you hang around him for five minutes, I suddenly make much more sense (this has been confirmed by many friends and co-workers over the years). Unfortunately for him, this meant that any horse racing chatter we had via text message Saturday included me bombarding him with updates on just how badly I was doing and how badly I felt about it. Not helping matters was that his computer was, in layman’s terms, throwing up all over itself, or that he possesses the most annoying text message alert I’ve ever heard (a fact that I’m sure accounted for about 15 percent of his annoyance level!).

We were both about at our respective wit’s ends before the Diana. Lady Eli, one of the best stories in racing, was running, and in fact would go off as the heavy favorite. However, before the race, she and stablemate Antonoe both broke through the Saratoga starting gate.

In the case of Lady Eli, it didn’t matter. Neither did the weight she gave to her rivals, or that she may not be quite as explosive as she was before she endured her life-threatening battle with laminitis. She and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., circled the field and put away the game Quidura, giving the mare another Grade 1 victory in a career that has featured such wins at ages two, three, four, and five.

It’s tough to feel bad about anything in horse racing after seeing something like that. I don’t do “sappy” much, but it was nice seeing a reminder that I’m doing what I believe I was born to do, which is talking about horses to audiences that will hopefully make some money along the way. Things got even better the next day, when I was given the green light to contribute selections and analysis on DRF’s GamePlan from time to time. The day after that, I had three winners and a second-place finish from six originally-picked winners (three scratched). It’s not the start I’d hoped for, but at the very least, whatever negative juju I once had seems to be gone.

Sorry for being a pain in the neck, Dad.

– – – – –

This is the first weekly installment of “The Dark Day Files,” and I sincerely hope you enjoyed it. Got an idea for a future column? Click here to contact me.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/26/17

Posted on July 24, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $914

After my start to the meet, which mostly resembled Daffy Duck losing one “wabbit season, duck season” argument after another, it was nice to have a day where it looked like I knew what I was doing. Of six original top picks that actually ran Monday (three scratched), three won, one was second, and one of the off-the-board finishes came in a race where I correctly went against what turned out to be a bad favorite. Hopefully, this means I’m rounding into form.

As always, if you’ve got anything you’d like addressed in this space, send me a tweet at @AndrewChampagne. I’m taking questions and comments all meet long. Just make sure they’re good!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: The second race was rained off the turf, which means my double play was cancelled (remember, wagers in races carded for turf assume no surface switch). Unfortunately, we dropped $15 when the tote board exploded in Monday’s opener and we didn’t have the $232 winner.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I thought this was a very strange card from a betting standpoint, in that I could narrow most races down to a few contenders, but not feel too confident about singles. My plays come in the ninth, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. I’ll play a $10 exacta box using #3 PAULASSILVERLINING and #5 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM, and I’ll punch a straight $5 double singling Finley’sluckycharm and 10th-race selection #6 SHE REMEMBERED.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: She Remembered, Race 10
Longshot: New Canaan, Race 2

Surprising Soul
Moscato
Show Court

SURPRISING SOUL: Has woken up with three straight decisive victories this year. He hinted at talent with a pair of runner-up finishes over fences last year, and he could be emerging as a very nice horse; MOSCATO: Has won two in a row and steps up in class in this spot. He’s yet to run a bad race since coming to America from Europe; SHOW COURT: Prevailed by a nose last out at Parx and won a stakes race by daylight earlier this year.

Sand City (MTO)
New Canaan
Indian Gem

NEW CANAAN: Is a major threat if she draws in off the AE list. Linda Rice made a name for herself in these turf sprints, and the recent bullet workout inspires confidence ahead of this one’s debut; INDIAN GEM: Comes in off a long layoff and a trainer change to George Weaver, whose horses have come out running early in the meet. She’s a top contender if she’s ready to run; SHARP LACEY: Ran third when debuting at this route last summer. Her recent efforts haven’t been great, but maybe she just doesn’t like Belmont and needs a change of scenery. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAND CITY, INDIAN GEM, SONG FOR THE SOUL.

Bunyaan
Combat Controller
Hay Listen Up

BUNYAAN: Takes a massive class drop after faltering against much better in each of his past two starts. Anything close to his runaway win three back (which came in his last two-turn outing) would likely be good enough; COMBAT CONTROLLER: Is another taking a big class drop for a live barn. The win two back against lesser company was strong, and he ran against some big-name horses earlier this season; HAY LISTEN UP: Woke up two back with a wire-to-wire score and runs for D. Wayne Lukas, who has already won several races to this point in the meet.

Fayeq
Emancipation
Hammerin Aamer

FAYEQ: May not be as good as older half-sister Rachel Alexandra, but his last-out maiden win was very sharp. He ran against some very good horses earlier this year at Gulfstream, and indications are that he’s figuring things out; EMANCIPATION: Channeled older full brother Orb with his late-running debut win and ran well last out in his first start against winners. Two turns should be no problem, but will he get any sort of a pace to close into?; HAMMERIN AAMER: Has taken a substantial step forward as a 3-year-old and was a good second last out downstate. He could be forwardly-placed early, which may be beneficial given the likely race shape.

A Dixie Twister
Asian’s Way (MTO)
Jazzy Juder

A DIXIE TWISTER: Drops in for a tag and loves sprinting on turf. She’s never run a bad race going this type of route, and she could sit a dream trip just off the speed; JAZZY JUDER: Woke up two back when switched to the turf and didn’t run badly in her first start against winners downstate. The slight cutback in distance could help, and she may be good enough to overcome the disadvantageous post; RUBY DUSK: Ships in from Arlington Park for a trainer that doesn’t run much at Saratoga, but means business when he does. Of 11 Catalano-trained starters here in the past two years, nine have hit the board (per DRF Formulator). DIRT SELECTIONS: A DIXIE TWISTER, ASIAN’S WAY, SISELLA.

Gargan entry
Super Stone
Asiliveandbreathe

GARGAN ENTRY: Either horse could win, but I prefer TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR, who fetched $225k at auction last summer. The past two works were very sharp, and offspring of Into Mischief can be precocious; SUPER STONE: Showed speed and faded in her career debut at Belmont. She was the betting favorite that day, and trainer A.C. Avila could have her ready to go at second asking; ASILIVEANDBREATHE: Possesses a sharp work two drills ago downstate and could benefit from the outside draw she gets here.

Vintage Matters
Voodoo Song
Clutch Cargo

VINTAGE MATTERS: Is the only one of these with a marathon turf race under his belt. That particular race (four back) came up incredibly tough, he’s run well since then, and this gelding should be doing his best running late; VOODOO SONG: Was hammered late in the wagering Saturday and is run back quickly after cruising home well clear on that occasion. He’s 2-for-2 on turf, and Linda Rice has had success with quick turnarounds in the past; CLUTCH CARGO: Possesses the running style needed for races of this distance, could hang around for a piece of it, and is a win candidate if this is rained off the turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: CLUTCH CARGO, MAN OF WIREGRASS, VINTAGE MATTERS.

Elenzee
Animal Posse
Gaming (MTO)

ELENZEE: Would benefit from the likely shape of this race given the closing kick he showed when second last time out. The Casse barn has started slow this meet, but this spot could set up for this horse; ANIMAL POSSE: May have bounced last time out after a good third two back in his 2017 debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., signs on to ride, and he could be the speed of the speed; GEHRIG: Has not won in nearly two years, but, like my top pick, he stands to benefit from a pace meltdown and should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: GAMING, WICKED MACHO, GEHRIG.

Finley’sluckycharm
Paulassilverlining
By the Moon

FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM: Is a perfect 5-for-5 at this six-furlong distance and has lost just once in nine one-turn efforts. She figures to be the controlling speed here, and if she brings her Churchill form with her, look out; PAULASSILVERLINING: Is 2-for-2 this year, with both wins coming at the Grade 1 level. She’s obviously got tons of talent and will probably be favored, but is it possible she wants longer than the six furlongs she gets today?; BY THE MOON: Is an easy horse to root for and comes in after two Grade 3 wins downstate. Her chances would improve over a wet track.

R10

She Remembered
Pure Gemmz
Scarlett Jo Hansen

SHE REMEMBERED: Has really improved since moving to turf as a 3-year-old. Her best effort came last out going a similar route of ground at Belmont, and a similar effort would make her tough to beat; PURE GEMMZ: Has run respectable races at this level going shorter and stretches out in this spot. The blinkers come off, and she could be forwardly-placed; SCARLETT JO HANSEN: Could be dangerous if she draws in off the AE list. She was a solid third at this level last out, and Michelle Nevin usually has them ready to run second off the layoff.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/24/17

Posted on July 23, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $929

If you’re only at Saratoga a few times this summer and want my selections and analysis for every day of the summer meet, head to my website, AndrewChampagne.com. The folks at The Saratogian have been nice enough to let me post my stuff there, and new to my site tomorrow will be the first installment of a weekly column. “The Dark Day Files” will attempt to give some insight into the routines and musings of a public handicapper, and I sincerely hope you enjoy it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I wouldn’t have traded places with anyone going down the backstretch in the fifth race, as John Velazquez slowed the pace down aboard my best bet, Thebigfundamental. However, he was collared in the stretch, my plays went up in smoke, and I dropped $30.

MONDAY’S PLAY: There’s a longshot I like right off the bat. #3 THADDEUS appears to be the controlling speed in the opener, and he may relish the drop in class at a price (8-1 ML). I’ll put $5 on him across the board, and I’ll play $2 doubles using him and likely favorite #6 YOUR SECRET’S SAFE with #3 TIZNOBLE and #10 AZAR in the second race.

TOTAL WAGERED: $23

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Blue Prize, Race #7
Longshot: Thaddeus, Race #1

Thaddeus
Your Secret’s Safe
Nicholas and Me

THADDEUS: Takes a big drop in class after showing ample early zip in the maiden special weight ranks. This is an appropriate spot, and Rosario staying on is a plus; YOUR SECRET’S SAFE: Cuts back to a sprint distance on the huge class drop and will likely be a considerable favorite. He could wake up at this level, but there’s a chance he wants more ground than he’ll get; NICHOLAS AND ME: Showed speed when third in his debut at Churchill Downs. Top speed rider Paco Lopez hops on, and improvement is logical at second asking.

Morning Buzz (MTO)
Tiznoble
Azar

TIZNOBLE: Has not run a bad race in his career, and many of those outings have come against much better horses. The drop in class is a bit odd, but his best race would make him tough to beat; AZAR: Topped allowance foes two back at Gulfstream and is multiple stakes-placed. He’s another for whom the drop is alarming, but he breaks from a tough post and may be bet heavily; SPORTSCASTER: Fits at this level, and his last-out effort on dirt is a throw-out. The post is unfortunate, but he fits based on past form and could be a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MORNING BUZZ, AZAR, TAOISEACH.

Libby’s Tail
Laney
Dancing All Night

LIBBY’S TAIL: Missed by a head in last year’s Grade 1 Frizette, but she hasn’t been seen since running second in a minor stakes race back in January. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of early speed signed on alongside her, so she could conceivably get an easy lead; LANEY: Ran third in back-to-back graded races two and three back and probably bounced last out. She loves this distance and would benefit from a speed duel should a horse go with my top selection; DANCING ALL NIGHT: Cuts back in distance after a disappointing first try against winners. That said, her win two back was solid, and Shug McGaughey’s horses likely get better with experience.

Double Dose
Hot Yankee
Slam Chowder

DOUBLE DOSE: Won three in a row earlier this year and comes back to the claiming ranks after a pair of tries against much better allowance company. She loves this distance, and her flexible running style is a big plus; HOT YANKEE: Hasn’t won in a while, but has held her own against slightly better of late at Churchill Downs. The lack of a published worktab is unfortunate, but Saez signing on indicates she’s well-meant by an underrated barn; SLAM CHOWDER: Is another that hasn’t won in a while, but she was a close-up third at a higher level last out and attracts Javier Castellano.

Covenant
Tapella
In It for the Gold

COVENANT: Seems best in what looks like a two-horse race on paper. She hooked eventual graded stakes winner Salty in her lone start to date, and most Mott trainees tend to improve with experience; TAPELLA: Hammered for $750,000 two years ago and makes her long-awaited debut in this spot. She possesses several live works and a pedigree to match, but the rail isn’t always the best place for debuting runners; IN IT FOR THE GOLD: Merits a chance at a piece of it at a big price. She showed speed in her seasonal debut last month, and her form from last year may be good enough to best the rest of this bunch.

Sly Beauty
Fairyland
Schianti (MTO)

SLY BEAUTY: Chased eventual Schuylerville winner Dream It Is in her debut before romping at second asking. This filly was actually a heavy favorite in her unveiling, and she was certainly flattered by what happened on opening day; FAIRYLAND: Is one of two Ward trainees in this field coming back from Royal Ascot. She showed speed that day before fading and should find these waters much more agreeable; PRINCESS PEGGY: Is the other Ward runner. She beat my second selection last out, but I wasn’t as floored by her debut, which may have come against a suspect field. DIRT SELECTIONS: FAIRYLAND, SCHIANTI, PRINCESS PEGGY.

Blue Prize
Josephine’s Moment
Fuhriously Kissed

BLUE PRIZE: Nearly won in her U.S. debut despite a slow start. She was a Group 1 winner in her native Argentina, and her works since that American bow have been sharp; JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT: Steps up in class after recording her fourth straight victory last out at Parx. Parx shippers sometimes have trouble maintaining that form here, but it’s tough to say she’s ever been better; FUHRIOUSLY KISSED: Merits a longshot look second off the layoff for Ian Wilkes. She’d benefit from a speed duel up front, and she’s worked very well since shipping here earlier this month.

Miss Ella
Ruby Notion
Fair Point

MISS ELLA: Gets my reluctant top pick in a race where almost any horse entered can win. She loves this 5 1/2-furlong trip, though, and she should benefit from the cutback in distance; RUBY NOTION: Won an allowance race at Churchill last month and was a solid third behind all-world turf sprinter Lady Aurelia two back at Keeneland. She has tactical speed, but does not need the lead, which helps; FAIR POINT: Would likely be my top pick with a better post. If there’s any sort of speed duel, she’ll likely come flying, but will such a rally be enough to overcome breaking from that far outside? DIRT SELECTIONS: RUBY NOTION, SUMMER READING, PRETTY PERFECTION.

Royal Power (MTO)
Joe’s Smokin Gun
Fox Strike

JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Is a logical favorite in a race full of question marks. Unlike his opponents, he has a solid turf race on his resume, and he’ll likely show early speed; FOX STRIKE: Boasts a solid worktab in central New York, and this barn has shipped 2-year-olds to Saratoga successfully in the past. He’s a half to New York circuit veteran Fox Rules, and Lonhro can certainly throw a good turf horse; FAIR ARCHER: Is worth a longshot look based on his pedigree, even if the post isn’t great. He’s a half to Brilliant, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf, and his dam is a half to Furiously, another multiple graded stakes winner. DIRT SELECTIONS: ROYAL POWER, BIG GEMMY, JOE’S SMOKIN GUN.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/23/17

Posted on July 21, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $959

Give many talented jockeys a single multiple Grade 1 winner to ride, and most would be ecstatic. For Mike Smith, it’s another day at the office. He’s in town today to ride Coaching Club American Oaks favorite Abel Tasman, who comes in off of back-to-back Grade 1 wins. Currently, he’s also the regular rider of champions Arrogate and Songbird, as well as likely Allen Jerkens favorite American Anthem, Travers probable West Coast, and sleeping giant Unique Bella, among many others. Nice work if you can get it!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Someone knew Voodoo Song was sitting on a big race, judging by the odds plunge that one took in the last flash of the tote board. Unfortunately, I wasn’t that person. My early Pick Four was toast right away, and I dropped $21.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on my best bet of the day, which comes in the fifth race. #1 THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL may be a short price, but I’ll try to maximize my profit. I’ll put $15 to win on him and single him in $5 doubles that use #2 QUESTEQ, #5 THRICE, and #7 PRADO VISION in a sixth race that seems wide-open on paper.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Thebigfundamental, Race #5
Longshot: Rapid Red, Race #4

Our Girl Abby
Kitty Kat Kate
You People

OUR GIRL ABBY: Tries turf for the first time and has a surprising foundation for such a young horse. With every horse trying two turns for the first time, that could be a big help, and her tactical speed is another plus; KITTY KAT KATE: Merits respect if she draws in off the AE list. Her effort two back was solid, and she’s got the pedigree to stretch out effectively; YOU PEOPLE: Is a first-time starter from a barn whose horses sometimes need a race to get going, but her dam was a Grade 3 winner going long on the turf, and the presence of Jose Ortiz is intriguing. DIRT SELECTIONS: OUR GIRL ABBY, IN THE MOOD, ORBOLUTION.

Tiz Shea D
Scarf It Down
Chubby Master

TIZ SHEA D: Takes a big drop in class, and it would be surprising if this Grade 2 winner was not claimed. He comes back to the dirt, and even a repeat of his 2016 dirt races would make him very tough; SCARF IT DOWN: Makes his first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro following a win over lesser company at Churchill Downs. Seven furlongs is an unknown, but he could sit a dream trip just off the pace; CHUBBY MASTER: Took a step forward when second at this level downstate. He was a close second at this route last year and could rally for a piece of it at a price.

Mr Classical
Weather Wiz
Uncle Mojo

MR CLASSICAL: Didn’t break well when backed heavily in his debut, but still rallied to finish third behind a stakes-quality runner in Emancipation (Orb’s little brother). He should love this two-turn route of ground and is the one to beat; WEATHER WIZ: Adds Lasix after finishing third in his Independence Day unveiling. His pedigree says he wants as much ground as possible, and improvement is logical at second asking; UNCLE MOJO: Re-rallied to finish second in his first start off a long layoff. He likely needed his debut back in January, and his July 8th bullet indicates he’s coming into this well.

Rapid Red
Main Road
Phi Beta Express

RAPID RED: Gets my nod at a bit of a price in a wide-open starter allowance. He hasn’t run a bad race on dirt, the outside draw is a plus, and while he’s got tactical speed, he doesn’t need the lead in what figures to be a race with plenty of early zip; MAIN ROAD: Makes his first start for trainer Ron Moquett after a pair of sharp races at Churchill Downs. How he’ll take to the Spa is anyone’s guess, but his usual race from Churchill or Oaklawn would put him right there; PHI BETA EXPRESS: Took a big step forward in his local debut earlier this month, leading every step of the way and earning an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. Regression is possible given the departure from his previous form, but he can’t be ignored.

Thebigfundamental
Securitiz
Royal Posse

THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL: Couldn’t have been much more impressive downstate, where he won two in a row by daylight. He tries two turns for the first time, but seems to be one of the few in this field that is going the right way from a form standpoint; SECURITIZ: Ran a big race first off the bench last month and is eligible to improve. He tends to run second a lot, but he’s got several strong local efforts on his resume; ROYAL POSSE: Has struggled of late, and it’s alarming to see him in for the optional claiming tag, but he’s 5-for-7 over this surface, and the change in scenery may wake him up.

Skyline Drive (MTO)
Thrice
Prado Vision

THRICE: Has done very little wrong in three career starts and makes her first start for new trainer George Weaver. She’s won going two turns before and should be flying late; PRADO VISION: Drops back in for a tag after running fourth against better at Churchill. Like my top pick, she’ll benefit if an early speed duel ensues; QUESTEQ: Draw a line through the last-out effort, which came against much better horses and may have been a bounce off of a career-best performance. Castellano returns to ride her, and he’s piloted her to her two top efforts. DIRT SELECTIONS: SKYLINE DRIVE, QUESTEQ, CRIMSON FROST.

Honor Way
Courtmewithcarats
Kissin Cassie

HONOR WAY: Takes a big drop in class after fading to fifth in her first start against winners. Her races against maiden special weight foes were very solid, and she was second here last summer in her unveiling; COURTMEWITHCARATS: Is one of many in here who figure to be gunning for the early lead. She’s improved considerably since moving to trainer Danny Gargan’s barn for her 3-year-old season, and a second straight wire-to-wire win could happen; KISSIN CASSIE: Merits a look underneath at a big price off of some OK performances downstate. As mentioned, there’s a lot of speed signed on, and the faster they go early, the better this closer figures to like it.

Verdant Pastures (MTO)
Lem Me Dance
Table for Six

LEM ME DANCE: Was a debut winner here last summer and has progressed this season, recorded a pair of in-the-money finishes. She tries two turns for the first time, but she had no problem with distance in her most recent outing; TABLE FOR SIX: Has been at this level a long time and seems to enjoy running second or third. She’s a must-use in exotics, though, especially if there’s any zip up front early on; BREE’S GOT HEART: Took a big step forward last time out in her first start over a firm turf course. She’s another who isn’t necessarily a “win type,” but she’s stakes-placed going two turns and isn’t without a shot at a piece of the purse. DIRT SELECTIONS: VERDANT PASTURES, ABOUT THAT BASE, BREE’S GOT HEART.

Summer House (MTO)
Animal Appeal
Miss Katie Mae

ANIMAL APPEAL: Has plenty of early speed and loves this route of ground. Her lone bad race since the start of 2016 came off a long layoff in a stakes race on Preakness weekend, and this is the spot she’ll likely relish; MISS KATIE MAE: Boasts plenty of back class and has run up against several top-class turf sprinters of late. While her recent rash of runner-up finishes is concerning, the faster they go early, the better her chances should be; NITE DELITE: Is another with stakes experience, and she ran several very fast races in Florida earlier this season. DIRT SELECTIONS: SUMMER HOUSE, GINGER N RYE, SPELLKER.

R10

Abel Tasman
Salty
Elate

ABEL TASMAN: Emerged as a top 3-year-old filly with back-to-back Grade 1 wins this past spring. She’s certainly the one to beat, but the relative lack of early speed signed on here could be a concern given her late-running style; SALTY: Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick in the Acorn and was well clear of that day’s third-place finisher. She may prefer one turn, but she’s got plenty of class; ELATE: May be the pace-setter by default here. She was visually impressive when winning a minor stakes at Delaware, and she may get a chance to dictate the early tempo.

R11

River Deep (MTO)
West Point entry
Nile Prince

CHAPIN: May take a taxi to the winner’s circle if he improves off his comeback effort earlier this month at Belmont. It’s not (30,000 pounds of) bananas to think that he’ll improve second off the long layoff; NILE PRINCE: Had no chance in his debut after a horrible start, but he did rally to be beaten just five lengths. That came against a better group, and John Kimmel trainees tend to improve at second asking; PROGNOSTICATION: Has run second in back-to-back races at this level. Two turns is a question mark, but Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz are a powerful combination. DIRT SELECTIONS: RIVER DEEP, COOKIE CRISP, MAJOR FORCE.