horse

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Stars and Stripes Day (7/8/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Stars and Stripes Day at Belmont Park, and it’s produced a stellar card with top-quality racing and ample wagering opportunities. I’ll profile the Pick Five and late Pick Four, and hopefully we can build on Tuesday’s success, which included a Pick Five score at Santa Anita. One note: This analysis assumes races scheduled for the turf stay there.

Here’s how I’ll play the card!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4
R2: 1,7
R3: 2,8
R4: 1,8,9,10
R5: 1,5,7,11

64 Bets, $32

Don’t get too excited thinking we’ll get a price on my single, because I have a VERY difficult time believing we’ll get 6-1 on Le Pin. This colt hasn’t been seen since a solid December debut, where he faded to third in a race won by eventual stakes winner Classic Rock. He’s bred up and down for the turf and should improve in his second start for trainer Todd Pletcher; if we get the listed odds, I’ll be very happy to bet him.

I think the second and third races each come down to two betting interests. I actually preferred 3-1 second choice Bareeqa to 2-1 favorite Selenite before the latter scratched. I’ll substitute a two-horse entry that could be well-meant. Moving to the middle leg, Base Command and National Flag are entered in the third and look like promising 2-year-olds.

I’ll spread in the last two legs, and in doing so, I’ll be alive to a few big prices. 20-1 bomb Kitty Maddnes steps up in class in the fourth, but does so off of an impressive win in her second start of the year. Another step forward would make her a contender at a big price. Additionally, Arghad has never run a truly bad race in six career starts. The cutback he’ll get in Saturday’s fifth should help this 15-1 shot, and I think he’ll be live at a nice number.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2
R8: 7,8,12
R9: 2,6
R10: ALL

66 Bets, $33

This is an all-stakes Pick Four that includes both Grade 1 races on the Saturday program, as well as a pair of Grade 2 affairs that feature some of the best older horses in the country. I’ll start off with a single, as Mind Your Biscuits seems to have a picture-perfect setup in the Belmont Sprint Championship. Green Gratto and Unified will both be gunning for the lead, which should play into the hands of the returning Dubai Golden Shaheen winner. He loves this seven-furlong distance, and I think he’ll be extremely tough to beat.

The eighth is the Belmont Oaks, and I’m using all three of Chad Brown’s entrants (he had four, but Fifty Five scratched). Sistercharlie ran a tremendous race against much better horses overseas last out, while New Money Honey showed a new dimension when racing on the lead in her Wonder Again win and Uni has been training very well. Meanwhile, I was tempted to single Shaman Ghost in the Suburban, as he does figure to be the best horse in the race. However, I can’t shake the possibility of Matt King Coal getting loose on the front end and wiring the field. As such, I had to use him (thankfully, the ticket isn’t too expensive!).

This leads us to the Belmont Derby. It’s the main event of Stars and Stripes Day, $1.2 million is on the line…and I’m waving the white flag. For my money, this is the most wide-open race on the card. I can make a valid case for as many as seven or eight of these runners, and given that I have plenty of room in my budget, I’m going to hit the “ALL” button to buy myself some security. Even if the first few legs are chalky, this Pick Four has solid potential, as the Belmont Derby favorite may not go off much higher than 3-1 or 7/2.

Santa Anita Closing Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/4/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Tuesday is closing day at Santa Anita, marking the conclusion of a meet that started way back in late-December. The folks in the racing office have put together an interesting card headlined by the Grade 3 American. I’ll be offering multi-race exotic tickets at the end of the article, including a Pick Six since that sequence has a carryover that must be paid out. Do note, though, that this ticket is very budget-conscious. I usually don’t play $2 Pick Sixes, as I simply don’t have the budget, and I can’t give out a huge ticket that I’d never play.

Before I do that, though, I’ll go race-by-race and give my thoughts on each event.

RACE #1: From a betting standpoint, I could not hate this race more (optimistic start, huh?). There’s a standout on paper in the form of Algorhythmic, who’s won three in a row since being claimed by Michael Machowsky. Her best race dusts this group…but she breaks from the rail, which is a very treacherous spot in races contested on the hillside turf course.

With that said, it isn’t like the rest of the field came up all that strong. Only two of her opponents have a win at this route, and that pair features a horse stepping up out of the claiming ranks (Del Mar Ann) and one that hasn’t run since November (Easy Grader). As such, if you’re playing the Pick Five, I think Algorythmic is a “hold your nose” single. I just can’t find anyone who seems like an upset candidate.

RACE #2: Many contenders here exit the same May 21st race, one that fell apart late after some ridiculous early fractions were posted. That day’s runner up, Summer Mischief, is logical, and I’ll use her in my Pick Five, but I’ll take a shot elsewhere with my top pick.

Lady Ninja’s first two races have come down the hill, and they haven’t been bad. She didn’t break well in her debut, but rallied to finish a respectable fourth, and she followed that up with a second-place finish behind a horse named Painting Corners, who was a runaway winner that day and also coasted to victory a few days ago. Flavien Prat stays on, and we may get a bit of a price on Lady Ninja in this spot.

RACE #3: I thought this was the most challenging race of the day. It’s a maiden race for fillies going long on the turf, and most of these horses figure pretty similarly to one another.

Reluctantly, I’ll give my top pick to 12-1 shot California Breeze, who tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it (331 turf Tomlinson rating). Flavien Prat stays on for trainer Phil D’Amato, and I’m hoping she gets brave on the front end.

RACE #4: This is a fun starter handicap featuring some speedy horses going five furlongs. Forest Blue is a considerable favorite based off of some strong recent races, but he’ll face Percy’s Bluff, who reeled off eight straight wins before trying a distance that was probably too long for him. Those two could tower over the field on the odds board, and I think they do just that on paper as well.

RACE #5: I’ll focus on a few class-droppers in this claiming event, one that starts a Pick Six sequence that boasts a mandatory payout. Getoffmyback comes back to this level, one where he just missed to a next-out winner two back. I’ll use him, but he hasn’t won in a while, and his 9/5 morning line seems pretty short given that.

My top pick breaks to the likely favorite’s inside. Atomic Action was protected three back, won two back, and then ran up against a very strong field last out. The winner and third-place finisher from that race have both come back to win, and the waters are much more shallow here.

RACE #6: This is the Grade 3 American Stakes, and it features the return of Om, who just missed in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He’s run well fresh before, and there aren’t many heavy hitters signed on for his 2017 debut.

What could work against Om is the likely pace scenario. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Flamboyant sat a picture-perfect trip. He hasn’t won in a while, but he may have been going a hair longer than his preferred trip for most of 2016, and he just missed at this level last time out at Golden Gate despite a wide trip.

RACE #7: The late Pick Four starts off with a real puzzler. This is a 2-year-old maiden race that’s drawn a full field of Cal-breds, and this is a spread race for me in that aforementioned sequence.

I like a pair of second-time starters most. Powerful Thirst may go off favored after an adventurous debut where he broke slowly and rallied to be fourth, while Oh Jerry took lots of money on debut and runs back fairly quickly. Still, this is a race where I think you need to buy lots of coverage if you can afford it.

RACE #8: This is a grass grab bag, and the field of 13 guarantees a tremendous betting race. I’ll use several in the late Pick Four, but I’ll be salivating if my top pick goes off close to his morning line price.

My Man Chuckles is 12-1 on the morning line, and I’m not entirely sure why. He won going down the hill two back, and ran an OK race last time out despite a post position that wasn’t ideal. Inside posts are undesirable at this route, but he was still beaten just a length and a half. The better draw in this spot should help him, as should the ample amount of early speed that appears to be lining up. I’ll gladly take double-digit odds if I can get them.

RACE #9: We’ve got an undefeated favorite in this race, and as much as I want to find holes in her resume, I can’t do that. G Q Covergirl is 3-for-3, and she came back running last time out off a long layoff. In that win, she rated a bit, which she hadn’t done in her two prior starts. There’s some speed to her outside, but Martin Garcia should have some options depending on how the race unfolds out of the gate. Improvement can be expected here, and if she steps up off her last race, she’ll be pretty tough to beat.

RACE #10: We end with a turf route that’s drawn a big field. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to who will be favored, and I like a few solid prices in here.

My top pick is I’m Living Proof, who’ll make his first start for new trainer Richard Baltas. Rafael Bejarano signs on, and he’s been gelded since his last outing, which should be a big plus. I also like 10-1 shot Insubordination, who’s flashed ample speed going down the hill. The outside draw isn’t great, but there doesn’t appear to be much early zip signed on, so he could lead them a long way.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1
R2: 3,6
R3: 2,5,7,8,9
R4: 3,6
R5: 1,2

40 Bets, $20

– – – – –

$2 Pick Six: Race #5

R5: 1,2
R6: 4,8
R7: 5,10
R8: 7,9,11
R9: 7
R10: 10,11

48 Bets, $96

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 3,5,7,10
R8: 6,7,9,11,13
R9: 7
R10: 5,10,11

60 Bets, $30

2017 Queen’s Plate Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/2/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Woodbine’s annual racing extravaganza is coming up Sunday. The power-packed card is headlined by the $1 million Queen’s Plate for 3-year-olds bred in Canada, and the card also features many other races with large, wide-open fields.

Making the card even more appealing to the average horseplayer are lower minimum bets for multi-race exotic wagers. Unlike in the U.S., where these wagers are in 50-cent increments, Woodbine’s minimums are 20 cents, and since a large majority of players are playing at that level, the payoff disparity is nowhere close to what one may expect. I’ve got two Pick Fives and two Pick Fours throughout the card, and the lower minimums allow me to spread very deep in certain spots. Let’s get to it!

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 2,8
R3: 1,2,3,9
R4: 1,2,4,6
R5: 10
R6: 3,5

64 Bets, $12.80

This is the home of our first guaranteed pool of the day, as this sequence boasts a minimum pool of $50,000. I thought it was a tricky wager to navigate, and again, this is where the lower minimum really helps.

Majestic Slew will likely be a pretty heavy favorite in the second. He’s won three races in a row and showed some flexibility last time out, rating from further back than usual and still getting up to win. If you want to single him, I get it, but Something Awesome is appealing cutting back to his preferred distance, and that one should be rolling late.

Races three and four are very difficult, and I’m hoping going four-deep in each leg is enough. If you saw this page Saturday night, you saw that I liked Biloxi Bay in the fifth. Unfortunately, the 12-1 shot, one I thought was quite live, scratched, so I’m singling Carlos Sixes, who was second behind Queen’s Plate contender Aurora Bay last out and will likely be a pretty heavy favorite.

The sixth is the King Edward, and Tower of Texas is the one to beat off a strong performance at this level last time out. I’ll also use Monster Bea, who had the deck stacked against him last time out. The early pace was not fast that day, but he still rallied to finish a strong second. He’s run competitive races at this level before, and he should be tuned up in his third start of the year.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 1,2,4,6
R5: 10
R6: 3,5,6
R7: 4,6

24 Bets, $4.80

This sequence seems a bit chalky, but I did throw a few prices in there. In a departure from my Pick Five ticket, I added Shakhimat in the King Edward. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed signed on, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus. He certainly needs to improve to win this, but the setup is there, and I wanted a piece of him in some fashion in case that happens.

The seventh is an allowance race with an 8/5 favorite. That’s Synthesize, but I don’t think he’s a cinch. He’s lost his last six races, all at this level and never at higher odds than 4-1. My top pick is actually Lions Bay, who sits at a juicy 6-1 on the morning line. If you toss out his turf races (0-for-6) and only consider his synthetic form (5-for-19, six minor awards), he fits.

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #6

R6: 3,5
R7: 4,6,7
R8: 3,4
R9: 4,5
R10: 1,3,11,13

96 Bets, $19.20

I’m going fairly narrow to start and then opening things up in the Queen’s Plate, which doubles as the payoff leg of this sequence.

I’ve dissected the first two legs already. In a deviation from the Pick Four, I’m adding Bourbon First in the seventh. I don’t love the horse, especially at 2-1, but the low-budget approach I’m taking allows me to throw him in at not much extra cost.

The eighth is the Singspiel, and I view this as a two-horse race between morning line favorite Reporting Star and third choice Bangkok, both of whom want every bit of this 12-furlong route. I’m taking a stand against Bullards Alley, who has not won in more than a year and will be a pretty short price. I’m also going two-deep in the Dance Smartly, using 8/5 favorite Suffused and 2-1 second choice Rainha Da Bateria.

This brings us to the Queen’s Plate, and I’ve got a few thoughts. I want no part of any of the runners coming out of the Plate Trial, which was far from an impressive race. My ticket includes three logical horses. Probable favorite Holy Helena was sharp in winning the Woodbine Oaks, Channel Maker was a good second in the Grade 3 Marine against open competition, and Aurora Way showed plenty of promise winning on debut.

My big price breaks on the outside of this 13-horse field. Watch Me Strut has one bad race on his record, which came two back after a layoff of nearly six months. He rallied from well back in a paceless race last time out, and I think this race has some speed signed on. State of Honor will certainly go early, and I have a tough time believing the other riders will give him an easy lead. The faster they go early, the better this one will like it, and at 30-1, I have to throw him in.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1,3,11,13
R11: 5,7,8,11
R12: 2
R13: 3,6,7,9,10,13

96 Bets, $19.20

We come to the sequence that includes my lone single on the entire card. It’s Made You Look, who gets his preferred trip and some class relief in the Charlie Barley. I’ve spread around him, and hopefully we can get a price or two home to make this pay.

I’ve used some of the logical horses in the 11th, as well as first-time starter Heads ‘n Tails, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and may not need to be much to win. The 13th is a total mess, and if you want to hit the “ALL” button, I can’t say I blame you. I narrowed my ticket down to six horses, and hopefully, I’ve got the winner. Of the prices I used, Jail Time intrigues me the most. He’s 10-1 and took a big step forward last time out. More progression from start two to start three would make him a major player.

Churchill Downs Pick Six Analysis/Ticket: 6/30/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is closing day at Churchill Downs, and that means a mandatory payout in the 20-cent Pick Six. As I’ve detailed in the past, this means a large pool and an attractive wagering opportunity, so I’m jumping in.

My ticket ultimately costs $28.80, and it assumes fast and firm conditions. Additionally, the ticket is structured in a pretty odd way given the layout of the sequence. I’ll dissect it below…

Race #5: 2,9,12

We open with a $16,000 claimer that’s drawn a field of 12. Some bigger tickets may punch the “ALL” button here, as this has all the makings of a race that could go to a huge longshot.

My top pick isn’t a bomb, but 5-1 on the morning line is pretty attractive. I’m referring to Fat Daddy, who turned the corner last time out when romping by more than five lengths. That was against a much weaker field, but his race three back (the only other time he ran on a fast dirt track) was okay, and this will be his first start for Mike Maker. A repeat of his last race will make him tough to beat.

I’ll also use Blabimir and Caniform, who figure to be the top two betting choices. Blabimir drops way down in class after shipping in from California, while Caniform has improved with every start and should be rolling late.

Race #6: 5,6

This is the Bashford Manor for 2-year-olds, and this seems like a two-horse race between Copper Bullet and Ten City. I’m using them both. Both were runaway maiden winners when last seen, and I love the outside draws that both get in this spot.

Race #7: 2,4,9,10,11,12

I thought this was the most wide-open race in the sequence. It’s a maiden race going long on the turf, and there are some appealing prices in here.

There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, and as such, 10-1 shot Sharm El Sheikh is my top pick. He’s a consistent sort whose lone bad race came at five furlongs, and this route should be to his liking. His trainer has had a strong meet, and I hope we get a price on him on Friday night.

With that in mind, I’m far from in love with any of these horses. This is another potential “ALL” spot for bigger tickets, and if you have the bankroll to go that route, that may not be a bad idea.

Race #8: 1,6,9,11

This is the Debutante for 2-year-old fillies. Contrary to its counterpart (the Bashford Manor), this race drew a huge field, and it presents an interesting handicapping puzzle.

Sunny Skies is probably the best horse in here, especially adding Lasix at second asking. However, there are some other very strong 2-year-old fillies in here. She’s a Julie thumped a next-out winner in her debut, Amberspatriot just missed in stakes company last month, and Lady O’Toole overcame plenty of trouble to win going away in her unveiling.

Race #9: 7

Race #10: 4

Yep, I’m ending my ticket with back-to-back singles. My best bet of the sequence is the first one, which is Drop Dead Red in the ninth. On paper, she appears to be the lone true early speed horse in the field. She loves this surface, romped by nearly 10 lengths last time out, and while this is a step up in class, it’s not like this is a tremendous allowance race.

The payoff leg is the Kelly’s Landing, a seven-furlong stakes race. I opted to single Limousine Liberal, who has won two in a row (largely against better competition). If you’re playing a bigger ticket, you may also want to use The Player, who appears to be ready to run off a long layoff. That one’s best is pretty good, but I’ll bank on a sprinter that appears to be in career form.

THE TICKET

R5: 2,9,12
R6: 5,6
R7: 2,4,9,10,11,12
R8: 1,6,9,11
R9: 7
R10: 4

144 Bets, $28.80

A Salute to Ben’s Cat, PLUS: An Idea to Honor Warhorses Like Him

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

In sports, certain athletes come along and have careers that will almost certainly never be replicated. It’s even better when you know that as one such career is unfolding, and it makes everything much easier to appreciate when that career comes to an end.

Beloved 11-year-old veteran Ben’s Cat was retired Tuesday following an off-the-board finish in Saturday’s Mister Diz Stakes at Laurel Park. It’s fitting that the race served as his finale, since he won it an incredible six straight years from 2010 through 2015. He was managed in impeccable fashion by Hall of Fame trainer King Leatherbury, and while nobody would ever say Ben’s Cat was an elite horse, he amassed a considerable following and did a lot of good in an age where positive stories aren’t easy to come by.

Ben’s Cat finishes with 32 wins in 63 starts and earnings of more than $2.6 million, and you could forgive anyone who set low expectations for him at the outset of his career. His sire, Parker’s Storm Cat, was just 1-for-4 lifetime and never tried stakes company. His dam, Twofox, was a three-time winner, but one who won just one of her final 11 starts.

Consider what that modest pedigree resulted in. It led to a horse who won 26 stakes races and amassed more outings than American Pharoah, California Chrome, and Zenyatta combined. He won at least one race at historic Pimlico Race Course in seven consecutive years, which is a record that may go untouched (similar to Fourstardave’s eight-year run at Saratoga). He was at his best on turf, but was far from a slouch on dirt, having won three straight renewals of the rich Fabulous Strike Handicap at Penn National.

Was Ben’s Cat a top-echelon horse? No. He never tried Grade 1 company, let alone a Breeders’ Cup race. That said…does it matter?

We live in an age where thoroughbreds “breeze” a furlong at 2-year-old sales, sell for obscene amounts of money, and leave those connections shocked when infirmities show up that often cause early retirements (though not shocked enough to stop seeking and overpaying for prodigious speed at 2-year-old sales the next year). By comparison, Ben’s Cat retired sound at age 11 after a career that made him one of the most beloved horses in the country. You could offer me 100 of those impressive-looking 2-year-olds. I’ll take one Ben’s Cat replica instead.

Much has been made lately about ways the sport of horse racing can grow. What the game needs are horses the average fan can get behind, ones that people will come to the track to see run once a month. In any sport, stars create business and interest, and it’s no different in horse racing. We don’t need impressive 2-year-old maiden winners who run a few times and retire prematurely. We need warhorses, ones who are reliable, hard-knocking, and sound. That’s what Ben’s Cat was for so long. He was a stalwart in an age where stalwarts are hard to come by, and even at age 11, when it was clear he lost a step physically, he had the mind and competitiveness of a stakes-quality horse.

As some of you know, I have a vote for horse racing’s Hall of Fame. It’s safe to assume that based on current criteria, Ben’s Cat won’t get inducted. He likely won’t even make a ballot. The same can be said for Fourstardave, whose Saratoga record may be the most unbreakable mark in all of thoroughbred racing. Ditto for the likes of Rapid Redux, Pepper’s Pride, and Hallowed Dreams, all horses who reeled off extensive winning streaks at small circuits around the country far away from the bright lights of New York, Kentucky, and California.

For this reason, I’ve hashed out an idea to honor the hard-knocking veterans of the sport. These horses may not have had Secretariat’s abilities, Forego’s closing kick, or the pure speed of Dr. Fager, but what they did was equally as valuable to the game we love. They engaged fans, they always showed up, and when their careers were over, everyone who saw them run sincerely appreciated their efforts and contributions.

I propose a Warhorse Wing of the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. Every year, a committee would have an option to induct a horse that fulfilled pre-existing criteria. I’m open to any constructive criticism, but my initial criteria is that a horse must meet at least one of the below requirements for consideration.

1) Run for a minimum of five seasons.
2) Achieve a minimum of 50 career starts.
3) Win 10 or more races consecutively.

I’m aware of plenty of rational viewpoints against this idea. Yes, this would open the doors for horses of lesser ability into the Hall of Fame, and yes, this would add an induction to classes that are already growing in size due to a backlog of worthy candidates. Those are valid criticisms, and if you fall into one of those camps, I won’t argue too strenuously with you (side note: boy, I’d make an awful politician).

Having said that, horses that meet the above criteria have done an immeasurable amount of good for the game. It’s my belief that they deserve the highest possible level of recognition, especially in an era where long, productive careers aren’t necessarily the norm.

I don’t have a snappy, witty closing line to finish things off with, so I’ll end with a story. Last year, the day before the Preakness, I was working at TVG headquarters. Ben’s Cat was a 10-year-old, and signs of his decline were beginning to show. I watched the race with racing cynic/PhotoShop wizard Danny Kovoloff, and we saw 4/5 favorite Rocket Heat spurt clear at the top of the stretch while Ben’s Cat looked pinned in along the rail. With a furlong to go, it looked like the veteran was bound for a minor award; a solid showing, for sure, but a certain step down from some of his prior efforts.

Then, with a sixteenth of a mile to go, Ben’s Cat angled off the rail. He somehow found space between Rocket Heat and longshot Spring to the Sky, and Danny and I (two people whose curmudgeonly behavior far outweighs our relative youth) began screaming at the television.

“COME ON, BEN! COME ON, BEN!”

Ben’s Cat hit the wire clear by a head in what would turn out to be the last winning performance of his career. A TVG executive heard the noise, stepped out of his office, and remarked, “…that was awesome.”

We agreed.